Peak Oil is You
Donate Bitcoins ;-) or Paypal :-)
Page added on December 26, 2018
The Coming Scramble for Africa
China, and Russia to a degree, are ahead of the game, but the U.S. has the advantage going forward.
In the 19th century, Europe’s great powers were caught up in what historians have dubbed “the scramble for Africa,” as Britain, France, Germany, and Italy competed with one other to establish colonies and control over the so-called Dark Continent — a competition that increased international tensions and ultimately helped to set the stage for the First World War.
Today a new scramble is underway, pitting the United States and China and, to a lesser degree, Russia against one other as they try to coax into their respective camps the new Africa that’s emerging in the 21st century.
At stake are Africa’s rich natural resources, rapidly growing markets, and political and military influence over the planet’s Southern Hemisphere — and a major portion of the world’s population. This scramble will do much to shape the 21st century, just as the earlier scramble shaped the 19th. It will also become a major epicenter for the ongoing competition between the U.S. and China for economic and strategic leadership.
Fortunately, the Trump administration understands the stakes involved. Last week National Security Adviser John Bolton gave a speech unveiling the administration’s new Africa strategy. Unfortunately for the U.S., China has a big lead in this competition, and making up the difference won’t be easy, even though it will have to be a critical part of America’s 21st-century agenda.
But America has one clear advantage going forward. Unlike the last scramble for Africa, in the 19th century, when all the participants wound up being imperialist bad actors, this scramble has two very bad actors, Russia and China, and one clearly good guy ready to ride to the rescue — namely, the U.S. While China’s efforts in Africa have been brutal and neo-colonialist in the extreme, we can, as Bolton indicated in his speech, show sub-Saharan Africa’s 49 countries how to preserve their independence and autonomy and become part of the modern economic order in ways that benefit their people and increase their prosperity and security — as well as the prosperity and security of the United States.
***
Underlying all this is a fundamental reality: Africa in the 21st century is going to be the next frontier of globalization. It contains more than 30 percent of world’s hydrocarbon reserves and minerals, including rare earths essential for defense needs, and is experiencing the world’s biggest population explosion.
The United Nations estimates that Nigeria by 2050 will be the third-most populous country, after China and India, and that Africa’s population as a whole will surpass China’s by 2100. Of the world’s 21 most “high fertility” nations — i.e., with the highest potential for fast population growth — 19 are in Africa.
Nor is Africa the economic basket case it once was. According to the African Development Bank, sub-Saharan Africa is poised to be the second-fastest-growing economy in the world, with a growth rate of 3.1 percent in 2018 and a projected growth rate of 3.6 percent in 2019–20. All this adds up to a continent ready and eager to join the world’s economic order.
Still, it’s easy to see why Africa slipped off America’s strategic radar screen. Decades of poverty and corruption have made Africa seem like the world’s incurable basket case, an impression that the unfolding AIDS crisis in the 1990s only reinforced. The Obama years were wasted in terms of engagement in Africa. While Obama made highly publicized trips to Africa and paid lip service to the idea of helping sub-Saharan Africa escape from poverty and join the modern world, two predators took advantage of U.S. passivity to plant themselves on the continent. The first was radical Islam and Boko Haram. The other was China.
While the U.S. and the rest of the West have largely ignored Africa during the past two decades, China has made it an economic and strategic priority. Beijing sees it as the perfect hunting ground for securing raw materials, for overseas business investment, and above all for expanding China’s geopolitical influence, as part of a grand strategy for replacing the U.S. as the leading global hegemon.
By 2015 trade between China and Africa was close to $300 billion. It now tops half a trillion dollars. (By contrast, U.S. trade with Arica is barely $5 billion, and has been declining since 2011.) Right now China has more than 3,000 infrastructure projects underway across the continent and has handed out more than $60 billion in commercial loans. But none of it, especially the loans, comes without strings attached.
Hungry for economic opportunity, and hungry for cash, one African country after another has willingly turned itself into a Chinese dependency. Dictatorships including those in Ethiopia and Ghana have accepted Chinese help in erecting their own versions of the Great Firewall, in order to gain control of the Internet inside their borders, while adopting the technologies of China’s high-tech police state. Others fell for China’s offer of loans to support those infrastructure projects and soon found themselves in debt traps that they couldn’t escape — and that China is able to use to wield political influence.
Zambia is a perfect example. Today it finds itself in debt to China in the amount of $6–10 billion — nearly a third of its total GPD. Chinese control over the country’s economy has put Zambia in a stranglehold. As one former Zambian prime minister put it, “European colonial exploitation in comparison with Chinese exploitation appears benign,” the latter being “focused on taking out of Africa as much as can be taken out, without any regard for the welfare of the local people.” Several other African countries, including Rwanda and Ghana, could make the same claim.
China’s growing influence has its military side as well. China’s decision in 2017 to build a military and naval base in Djibouti on the Horn of Africa has been a geopolitical game-changer, given its proximity to the U.S. base at Camp Lemonnier. The Djibouti base location gives China’s new aircraft carriers a place to rest and refit — and to project Chinese power where no one ten or 20 years ago imagined it possible.
***
Bolton in his speech mentioned both Zambia and Djibouti, in explaining why America needs a new proactive policy toward Africa, one that emphasizes democracy, economic prosperity, and, above all, political autonomy in face of China’s neo-colonialist ambitions. While not forgetting the importance of the war on radical Islam in Africa — which, we should remember, the Obamas chose to fight largely with hashtags — Bolton and the Trump administration recognize that the top priority there is to counter Russian and Chinese influence across the continent. (China’s predatory practices get plenty of mention, but Bolton also pointed out that Russia “continues to sell arms and energy in exchange for votes at the United Nations — votes that keep strongmen in power, undermine peace and security, and run counter to the best interests of the African people.”)
One component of the new American strategy is to look for ways to increase investment by U.S. companies in a broad range of industries, from energy and minerals to telecommunications and health care. Another component, just as important, of the the new U.S. strategy is to cut and eliminate U.S. aid that only strengthens corruption and economic dependence. Between 1995 and 2006, for example, U.S. government aid to Africa was roughly equal to the amount of assistance provided by all other donors combined — with little or no benefit for the intended recipients, or for the U.S. The new Trump policy will aim to ensure, instead, according to Bolton, “that ALL aid to the region — whether for security, humanitarian, or development needs — advances US interests.”
Finally, the new U.S. policy will stress engagement through bilateral ties with individual African states instead of reliance on multilateral bodies such as the World Bank and the U.N. The U.N.’s human-rights record in its African peacekeeping missions, for example, has been horrendous and has only played into China’s pose as Africa’s last best hope.
All this represents a breath of fresh air in America’s policy toward Africa and gives us an important, benign and active role in the coming scramble for Africa that will dominate much of the 21st century. Will that competition lead to great-power tensions like those of the 19th century? Not if the U.S., unlike China, which treats African countries as neo-colonial dependents, invites African countries to be partners in a new order for the sub-Saharan region — and for the United States.
In end, how ironic will it be that while President Obama, who proudly touted his African heritage, allowed Russian and Chinese malign influence — as well as that of ISIS and Boko Haram — to grow in Africa. Donald Trump, the man whom the media and liberals and some conservatives paint as a racist, is the one on course to become the liberator of Africa from Chinese neo-colonialism and to set the continent on the path to peace and prosperity at long last.
30 Comments on "The Coming Scramble for Africa"
Sissyfuss on Wed, 26th Dec 2018 9:51 am
OK, I got it. America good, Russia China bad.
This identarian crap makes life so much easier to understand. No wonder Clogdisphobia is so all knowing and omniscient.
Duncan Idaho on Wed, 26th Dec 2018 10:18 am
OK, I got it. America good, Russia China bad.
Its the National Review, a conservative and simple minded publication by idiots.
Cloggie on Wed, 26th Dec 2018 10:25 am
As usual Europe doesn’t exist in the America mind, especially those in the Beltway, like neocon outlet National Review:
https://www.antiwar.com/blog/2016/01/06/neocons-at-national-review-stop-calling-us-neocons/
The truth is that Europe has deep involvement in Africa:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lom%C3%A9#Lom%C3%A9_Convention
Europe is the largest giver of financial development aid and in general Africans prefer to deal with Europeans (aid 0.80% GDP), rather than Americans (aid 0.17% GDP), Chinese or Russians and similar upstarts… because they know this kind of aid comes with the least amount of strings attached.
Davy on Wed, 26th Dec 2018 10:29 am
“Africans prefer to deal with Europeans (aid 0.80% GDP), rather than Americans (aid 0.17% GDP), Chinese or Russians and similar upstarts… because they know this kind of aid comes with the least amount of strings attached.”
Total BS neder.
Cloggie on Wed, 26th Dec 2018 10:55 am
Total BS neder.
If I try to interpret your brief yet eloquent response, I can only conclude that you don’t like my assessment.
For the rest your response is familiarly lacking substance.
dissident on Wed, 26th Dec 2018 11:23 am
America has the advantage because it will prop up any cannibal dictator like it backs the Saudis. It is always easier to ally with entrenched oppressive elites than actual democratic elements. Look at the history of US meddling in Latin America as an example.
Davy on Wed, 26th Dec 2018 11:41 am
Your just acting all emotionally because I kicked your ass again nedernazi.
Cloggie on Wed, 26th Dec 2018 11:44 am
Nor is Africa the economic basket case it once was. According to the African Development Bank, sub-Saharan Africa is poised to be the second-fastest-growing economy in the world, with a growth rate of 3.1 percent in 2018 and a projected growth rate of 3.6 percent in 2019–20.
Economic growth can be mostly explained by population growth (30 million/year, that is almost 3%/year on a population of 1.2 billion), leaving very little for real, that is per capita, growth.
JuanP on Wed, 26th Dec 2018 12:05 pm
I just acting all emotionally because You kicked your ass again
Davy Identity Theft on Wed, 26th Dec 2018 12:12 pm
JuanP on Wed, 26th Dec 2018 12:05 pm
JuanP on Wed, 26th Dec 2018 12:28 pm
BTW, this is me clowning around again
Davy Identity Theft on Wed, 26th Dec 2018 12:12 pm
JuanP on Wed, 26th Dec 2018 12:05 pm
More Davy Identity Theft on Wed, 26th Dec 2018 12:39 pm
JuanP on Wed, 26th Dec 2018 12:28 pm
JuanP on Wed, 26th Dec 2018 12:51 pm
Ha ha, more of my clowning around.
More Davy Identity Theft on Wed, 26th Dec 2018 12:39 pm
JuanP on Wed, 26th Dec 2018 12:28 pm
JuanP on Wed, 26th Dec 2018 12:53 pm
I have a masterbation problem too. I am 50 years old and still behave like a 13 year old.
Davy on Wed, 26th Dec 2018 1:32 pm
“I have a masterbation problem too. I am 50 years old and still behave like a 13 year old.”
Oops, sorry y’all. I was projecting again.
We all know 13 year olds are obsessed with pussies, penises, and masterbation. Just like I am.
More Davy Identity Theft on Wed, 26th Dec 2018 1:36 pm
JuanP on Wed, 26th Dec 2018 12:51 pm
JuanP on Wed, 26th Dec 2018 12:53 pm
JuanP on Wed, 26th Dec 2018 1:47 pm
This is more of me clowning around. I start this shit then I forget when to stop. I am a lunatic and a board criminal.
More Davy Identity Theft on Wed, 26th Dec 2018 1:36 pm JuanP on Wed, 26th Dec 2018 12:51 pm JuanP on Wed, 26th Dec 2018 12:53 pm
JuanP on Wed, 26th Dec 2018 1:50 pm
I am projecting again that I am projecting. See, I don’t know if I am coming or going but one thing is for sure I am losing my mind
“I have a masterbation problem too. I am
50 years old and still behave like a 13 year old.”
Oops, sorry y’all. I was projecting again.
We all know 13 year olds are obsessed with pussies, penises, and masterbation. Just like I am.
More Davy Identity Theft on Wed, 26th Dec 2018 2:50 pm
JuanP on Wed, 26th Dec 2018 1:47 pm
JuanP on Wed, 26th Dec 2018 1:50 pm
More Davy Projections on Wed, 26th Dec 2018 2:51 pm
“See, I don’t know if I am coming or going but one thing is for sure I am losing my mind”
More Davy Projections on Wed, 26th Dec 2018 2:53 pm
“I start this shit then I forget when to stop. I am a lunatic and a board criminal.”
JuanP on Wed, 26th Dec 2018 3:12 pm
Look at all this projecting of my projections. I can’t figure out if I am coming or going. I do know I am a lunatic and a fool but that is another subject. As far as this forum I am a nasty chalkboard noise:
More Davy Identity Theft on Wed, 26th Dec 2018 2:50 pm JuanP on Wed, 26th Dec 2018 1:47 pm
JuanP on Wed, 26th Dec 2018 1:50 pm More Davy Projections on Wed, 26th Dec 2018 2:51 pm
“See, I don’t know if I am coming or going but one thing is for sure I am losing my mind”
More Davy Projections on Wed, 26th Dec 2018 2:53 pm “I start this shit then I forget when to stop. I am a lunatic and a board criminal.”
More Davy Identity Theft on Wed, 26th Dec 2018 3:28 pm
JuanP on Wed, 26th Dec 2018 3:12 pm
More Davy Projections on Wed, 26th Dec 2018 3:28 pm
“I can’t figure out if I am coming or going. I do know I am a lunatic and a fool but that is another subject. As far as this forum I am a nasty chalkboard noise”
JuanP on Wed, 26th Dec 2018 3:59 pm
I am projecting projections of my mental illness. I am losing track of where I have been and where I am going.
This is my rubbish:
More Davy Identity Theft on Wed, 26th Dec 2018 3:28 pm JuanP on Wed, 26th Dec 2018 3:12 pm
More Davy Projections on Wed, 26th Dec 2018 3:28 pm “I can’t figure out if I am coming or going. I do know I am a lunatic and a fool but that is another subject. As far as this forum I am a nasty chalkboard noise”
More Davy Identity Theft on Wed, 26th Dec 2018 4:24 pm
JuanP on Wed, 26th Dec 2018 3:59 pm
More Davy Projections on Wed, 26th Dec 2018 4:25 pm
“I am projecting projections of my mental illness. I am losing track of where I have been and where I am going.”
Davy on Thu, 27th Dec 2018 3:47 am
“China To Take Over Kenya’s Largest Port Over Unpaid Chinese Loan”
https://tinyurl.com/y73ez5pp
“African Stand reports that China is likely to take over Kenya’s lucrative Mombassa port if Kenya Railways Corporation defaults on its loan from the Exim Bank of China. Call it a “debt-for-sovereign equity” exchange with a twist. Kenya’s Mombassa port China’s aggressive strategy emerged when a leaked audit report showed that the Kenyan government had inexplicably waived its sovereign immunity on the Kenya Ports Asset when signing the agreement, thus exposing the Kenya Port Authority to foreclosure – and confiscation – by China’s Exim Bank.”
“The China-built, China-funded standard gauge railway, also known as the Madaraka Express, is a diesel-powered passenger and freight rail service connecting Nairobi and Mombassa. It construction was plagued by cost overruns, and outside observers questioned its economic viability, but China was not worried: after all, if the 80%-China funded project failed, Beijing would have full recourse. Sure enough, SGR reported a 10 billion Kenyan shilling loss in its first year of operation, with current estimates that the railway generates about 600 billion Kenyan shilling in revenue. Meanwhile, in addition to putting the port at risk for a Chinese takeover, at stake is also the Inland Container Depot in Nairobi, which receives and dispatches freight hauled on the new cargo trains from the sea port.”
“In other words, a Chinese-funded project in Africa, is about to be confiscated by China, which will appoint Chinese management, upstream all revenues to China (and, eventually, profits after enough fat is trimmed), and provide China with its own strategist port in east Africa. A brilliant “investment” scheme? Why yes, and it won’t be the first time China has used it: in December 2017, the Sri Lankan government lost its Hambantota port to China for a lease period of 99 years after failing to show commitment in the payment of billions of dollars in loans. The transfer, according to the New York Times, gave China control of the territory just a few hundred miles off the shores of rival India.”
“in one of the toxic clauses subsequently exposing its assets to the Chinese clamp. “…any proceeding(s) against its assets (KPA) by the lender would not be protected by sovereign immunity since the Government waived the immunity on the Kenya Ports Assets by signing the agreement,” the auditor wrote. Whatever the reason for the glaring oversight, and the imminent “confiscation” of this critical African asset by Beijing, slowly but surely China’s intrepid vision behind first colonizing Africa (using China-funded loans) and subsequently much of Asia with the “One Belt, One Road” initiative is becoming quite clear.”
makati1 on Thu, 27th Dec 2018 4:13 am
And they would prefer to be invaded by the US military, have millions of their population killed and be occupied for 17 years?
The leaders of those countries are adults and entered into the contract of their own free will. Not to mention that is does raise the level countries economy and people.
Ask the Iranians if they approved the invasion of their county? The Syrians? The Egyptians? The Libyans? And on and on. Hypocritical Americans are just pissed because their country is dying and China is rising. So be it. About time!
Davy on Thu, 27th Dec 2018 4:40 am
So billy, are you apologizing? People want to know the truth and not be taken advantage of. People don’t want their country sold out by corrupt leaders to corrupt Chinese companies. This is about dishonesty and greed. Put your stupid anti-American twist on it if you like but what this shows is all your BS Sinophile talk is a lie.