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Page added on December 14, 2014
Sensing a Deal on Sanctions, Iran Is Bullish
The text message, received as the deadline for nuclear talks was expiring, gave Fatemeh Moghimi a thrill she had been waiting years to feel. “The deal,” it read, “was done.”
It took Ms. Moghimi, the owner of a leading trucking company, a second to absorb the news. When she did, she recalled recently in her Tehran office, she fairly screamed to herself, “We’re in business!”
As it turned out, the message was a bad joke, and instead the nuclear negotiations were extended for seven more months — bad news for Iran’s battered, inflation-ridden economy. But Ms. Moghimi was unfazed. “I’m not giving up hope,” she said with a smile. “It is going to be over soon. It is as if the sun is peeking through the clouds after a terrible rainstorm.”
Ms. Moghimi’s unyielding optimism, shared by many top businesspeople here, was dented briefly last month when nuclear negotiators agreed to a second extension of the talks without even a framework for further negotiations. But it is almost an article of faith in business circles that the latest extension is only the postponement of an inevitable thaw between Iran and the rest of the world.
“The world needs this deal; we need this deal,” Ms. Moghimi said. “It will happen.”
Both moderates and conservatives have expressed concerns about the unchecked rise in expectations, among the public as well as among elite business classes, that a deal will be cinched. They have been warning that the enthusiasm could turn to bitter disappointment if the negotiations, set to resume in Geneva next week, should fail, possibly touching off unrest or what some clerics call “another sedition,” a reference to the revolt that followed disputed presidential elections in 2009.
“The prospect of a better future is enough to make them forget their problems for now,” said Farshad Ghorbanpour, a political analyst. “Later, we will see if that state of mind will prove to be costly for us.”
The confidence is beginning to take on a life of its own, with executives in the major export industries — oil and gas, transportation and carpets — feverishly preparing for what they envision as gloriously prosperous days ahead. Meeting with foreign businesspeople at the conferences that are springing up regularly in Tehran, they are knocking out memorandums of understanding and other nonbinding agreements and even some contracts — all with caveats saying sanctions must be lifted first.
“I have signed contracts with Europeans and Arabs to design five refineries,” said Mohammad Javad Hassannejad, the chief executive of an oil and gas consultancy, Petrosadian. He said the contracts were potentially worth many millions of dollars for his company and would inject billions of dollars into the stagnant Iranian economy.
“Spirits are high,” he said. “There is growing confidence. After the deal we will witness an unbelievable boom.”
In the coming months Tehran’s Chamber of Commerce is organizing an international conference for foreign investors, Ms. Moghimi explained between phone calls, sitting behind her desk.
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“We will inform them where and how foreigners can invest, and help them to come to Iran,” she said. “All of us here are ready to start working.”
When Ms. Moghimi thinks of Iran’s future she sees a thriving nation at the heart of the crossroads between Asia, Europe and the Middle East. Her fleet of trucks will grow beyond imagination, she said, and she predicted that foreign companies would choose not the glitter of Dubai, in the United Arab Emirates, but the future boomtown Tehran for their regional headquarters.
“We should start preparing now,” she said in her Tehran office, where framed certificates and awards line the walls. “That way we will be ready once there is an end to the sanctions.”
The wave of optimism began with the election of a moderate president, Hassan Rouhani, who promised to mend Iran’s ties with the world. Mr. Rouhani continues to encourage that thinking, saying just last week that the “nuclear issue would be brought to its destination.” His foreign minister and chief nuclear negotiator, Mohammad Javad Zarif, promised after the most recent extension that a nuclear deal could happen “within weeks.”
The heightened expectations are not solely to be found among Iranians. The flow of foreign delegations to Iran continues at a steady pace, bringing eager businessmen who in conferences laud Iran’s unique geographical position, its stability and its largely untapped market of middle-class consumers.
At one such conference recently, staring into a huge auditorium filled with proudly smiling Iranian car industry representatives, a French executive acknowledged that the potential for business with Iran was stunning indeed. He and the others had just viewed a 3-D movie showing workers in blue overalls manning robots in the Iran Khodro factory, which churns out hundreds of thousands of cars each year.
“The sooner we can start working together, the better,” said the executive, Arnaud de David-Beauregards. He added, almost wistfully, “We hope our dear colleagues will wait for us.”
16 Comments on "Sensing a Deal on Sanctions, Iran Is Bullish"
Makati1 on Sun, 14th Dec 2014 6:43 pm
Will the world’s slipping economy trump the empires lust for control? Stay tuned…
Apneaman on Mon, 15th Dec 2014 1:39 am
The Global Bankers’ Coup: Bail-In and the Shadowy Financial Stability Board
http://ellenbrown.com/2014/12/12/bail-in-and-the-financial-stability-board-the-global-bankers-coup/
Apneaman on Mon, 15th Dec 2014 1:46 am
Inside Wealth: Some of the rich collect art. Others collect passports.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102266427
Apneaman on Mon, 15th Dec 2014 1:52 am
Let’s get ready to rumble?
U.S. Congress readies new sanctions on Russia
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/12/usa-russia-congress-sanctions-idUSL1N0TW1ZR20141212?feedType=RSS&feedName=utilitiesSector
Russia says will react if U.S. imposes new sanctions
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/13/us-ukraine-crisis-russia-sanctions-idUSKBN0JR06Y20141213?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews
Davy on Mon, 15th Dec 2014 5:18 am
Yea, App, the fascist congress and its cronies on Wall Street have succeeded in gutting the body politic and the constitution with CRomnibus. The destruction is complete because this was with the agreement of both parties of congress and executive. So much for all those wonderful Obama speeches. Looking back on Obama’s rise to power makes me sick. We know the judiciary has been usurped.
I mentioned to Perk how oil and gold are a great indicator of problems ahead for the Ponzi scheme operators. This bill is further example of steps being taken to head off another threat to the banking system from the oil price shock. I imagine the money will flow smoothly this time unlike 2008 when there was a real debate albeit with an undercurrent of lies and deceit.
If you will notice the bill also raised the campaign donations the thieves can get. They in effect voted themselves a raise. This is a further example of the complete destruction of the US body politic. We are not a republic anymore. The constitution is a museum piece a relic of naiveté. The power is in the hands of a few. We may be very close to a fascist arrangement when the big crisis hits. I suspect a military arrangement behind the fascist facade calling the real shots. These will be strange events for the US because we have no experience of these arrangements.
Boat on Mon, 15th Dec 2014 6:26 am
Davy, This type of activity is nothing new. Been going on since the beginning of the union.
Davy on Mon, 15th Dec 2014 6:45 am
Boat, the degree of this activity and the overtness of the disregard for the traditional rule of law is different. The degree of financial repression that supports this activity is unprecedented. The degree and duration of the repression and the resulting wealth transfer is off the charts. The campaign finance corruption is a monument to sleaze. Political/industrial conflicts of interest, spying, revolving power door, unfunded liabilities, deficits, and market manipulation/corruption are so far off the chart as to point to a new political and financial epoch.
It is exactly the attitude you have Boat that the TPTB are happy to hear. IOW:
Sheeple – “no problem what’s new? Everything is still relatively normal.”
TPTB – “No worries just get out and shop. Leave the messy work to us. We got your back.”
bobinget on Mon, 15th Dec 2014 12:35 pm
All I’m sayin, Libya, Venezuela even Russia will turn nasty if oil prices don’t recover quickly, like this week.
Sanctions, banctions, Venezuela is close to défaut.
Libya isn’t even a real state any longer.
More people are being killed in Iraq this year then last. Trends like this don’t inspire investment.
If you don’t get Russia is under attack by KSA and the US then, I don’t really care.
V.Putin is not the turntheothercheek kind of guy.
Speculawyer on Mon, 15th Dec 2014 6:10 pm
I hope there is a deal. The USA and Iran really need to put this behind us. They need to let go of 1953 and we need to let go of 1979. But both countries have nationalist conservatives that will try to scuttle any deal.
Makati1 on Mon, 15th Dec 2014 6:54 pm
Related:
“Both houses of the US Congress have approved the Ukraine Freedom Support Act bypassing debates and proper voting. The overtly confrontational message of the new law cannot but evoke profound regret.”
“Once again Washington is leveling baseless sweeping accusations against Russia and threatening more sanctions. At the same time it is muddling together the Ukrainian and Syrian conflicts, which the United States has been instrumental in inflating. It even refers to the INF Treaty although American compliance with it is questionable, to put it mildly. At the same time, it promises to Kiev to arm its military operation in Donbass and openly admits that it intends to use NGOs for an impact on Russia’s domestic processes.”
“Though it appears that major challenges to international security demand pooled Russian and American efforts, US legislators follow President Obama’s administration destroying the very foundation of partnership. Bilateral relations are being torpedoed no less powerfully than by the notorious Jackson-Vanik amendment, endorsed in 1974 to obstruct cooperation for several decades. We cannot but conclude that, … blinded by outdated phobias,… the United States is anxious to reverse time. As the US Congress instigates anti-Russian sanctions, it should part with the illusion of their effect. Russia will not be intimidated into giving up its interests and tolerating interference in its internal affairs.”
http://www.globalresearch.ca/us-nato-delivering-arms-to-ukraine-the-planning-of-aggression-against-russia/5419850
WW3 in 2015? 100 years since WW1. 75 years since WW2. Russia quit the first one and won the second one. Will they win this one? Or will there be no winners? We shall see.
Makati1 on Mon, 15th Dec 2014 6:57 pm
BTW: That is the Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman, Alexander Lukashevich, speaking. They are aware of exactly what the Empire is up to in Russia. The US better get over it Russo-phobia and get educated about modern Russia before it is too late.
Davy on Mon, 15th Dec 2014 7:22 pm
Makster, whatcha think about 17% interest rates in Russia. Impressive!
Makati1 on Tue, 16th Dec 2014 3:21 am
Davy: Similar to those in the US in the 80s, or don’t you remember? They were about 16% for Treasuries then. Mortgages were about 18% to 19%. Those were oil related problems also, If I remember correctly. Wait until they come back to the US. Or collapse, whichever comes first.
Davy on Tue, 16th Dec 2014 7:24 am
Mak, learn economics man. This Russian situation is efforts to head off immediate financial chaos. It is another example of your failed message of super heroes and economic heaven that awaits them.
Davy on Tue, 16th Dec 2014 7:35 am
Turmoil Spreads: Ruble Replunges, Crude Craters, Yen Surges, Emerging Markets Tumbling
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-16/turmoil-spreads-ruble-replunges-crude-craters-yen-surges-emerging-markets-tumbling
“For those wondering if the CBR’s intervention in the Russian FX market with its shocking emergency rate hike to 17% overnight calmed things, the answer is yes… for about two minutes. The USDRUB indeed tumbled nearly 10% to 59 and then promptly blew right back out, the Ruble crashing in panic selling and seemingly without any CBR market interventions, and at last check was freefalling through 72 74 76, and sending the Russian stock market plummeting by over 15%.”
Davy on Tue, 16th Dec 2014 8:01 am
“The USDRUB Pair Will Be Discontinued Due To Recent Instability Of The Russian Ruble”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-16/usdrub-pair-will-be-discontinued-due-recent-instability-russian-ruble
Anyone crowing over the above condition of Russia should pause a moment. Russia is a TBTF node in the global interconnected economy. As the largest exporter of oil and an important commodity source Russia as an essential place in the global economy. Russia is the second biggest military in terms of broad capabilities as such it is in an essential place in the global political arena. Russia is a country that spans many times zones and its influence stretches across the globe with 143MIL which puts Russia in a high social position.
The FX market the ruble is a part of is by far the largest source of wealth movements. It dwarfs all other markets. It is these flows that are vital to the global financial system. The FX market is too big to completely manipulate by the TPTB. It represents the raw flow of human confidence. IOW FX is confidence is liquidity. When a destabilizing occurrence like a run on the rubble and other emerging market currencies gets started the momentum is going to be shocking.
We may not be there yet but we are dangerously close. They are so many sources of further instability as to almost ensure further turmoil. When you have risk disseminated broadly through the global economy a risk-on situation craters the whole global economy because of contagions and counter party risks.
Folk please put your seat belts on. This could be the beginning of the big one. The TPTB may initiate their traditional damaging and diminished bailout tools, new ones like bail-ins, and other not yet know. This will likely not matter and may ultimately lead to a complete loss of confidence in BAU, globalism, and fiat currencies IOW hyperinflation.