Page added on February 7, 2016
Why has this not been done? Because too many American and British politicians are on the Saudi payroll, and too much of Britain’s and America’s arms producers are dependent on Saudi business. The Saudis’ heads have swelled with arrogance while their dim-witted oil policies threaten the global economy.
One night in his tent in Tripoli, Libya, Col. Muammar Khadafi told me, “the Saudis are a very rich family hiding behind high walls, terrified their neighbors will come and steal their wealth.”
He was right. The covetous neighbor most feared by the Saudis are Iran, followed by Egypt, Turkey and, more distantly, Israel. Iraq also used to be on the list until it was destroyed by the United States in 2003.
One must keep Saudi Arabia’s fear factor in mind to understand the oil wars that are now shaking the world’s economy to its foundations.
The Saudi royal family decided to kill two competitive birds with one stone – Iran and surging US shale oil producers – by kicking off a price war to run them out of business. Saudi Arabia is one of the world’s lowest cost oil producers. The Saudis also hoped to punish Russia for backing Syria’s government.
Price wars are the last recourse of all bad businessmen.
The problem with this ham-handed strategy is that your competitors will hang on desperately and cut prices to survive, even if it means running big losses. Price wars hurt all concerned. They dislocate production, markets, future investments and capital spending.
The result of Saudi Arabia’s oil price war has been to drive the once “black gold” down to around $32 a barrel from a high of $105 in 2015. Other Gulf producers joined Saudi Arabia in slashing prices. We have gone from panic over “peak oil” (worldwide shortages) to panic that we are drowning in oil.
So far, the Saudi oil war has indeed badly damaged the US shale and regular oil industry but has not put them out of business. However, oil industry dividends are being cut way back or eliminated. Blundering by the US, Canadian and Japanese central bankers has made things far worse.
Other major oil producers like Russia, Iran, Algeria, Malaysia, Kazakhstan and Indonesia have also been badly hurt but are hanging on. The oil war has seriously damaged the economy of the European Union. Japan should have been boosted by low oil prices but is also suffering relentless industrial decline, as witness by the humiliating sale of Sharp Electronics to China’s Foxconn.
Oil has become tightly correlated to North America’s stock markets, meaning that they rise and fall with the price of oil. Low oil prices may have helped a few industries like airlines, but they have created a worldwide recession. Canada, a dire example, has been battered by low oil prices and faces a bleak future unless resources rise sharply in price.
Efforts by OPEC and other oil producers to agree to cut back production and thus foster a price rise have so far failed due to fears that nations who reduce exports will see their former markets taken by cheating competitors. In economics, it’s known as ‘beggar they neighbors.’ The Saudis and Gulf producers keep blocking a decrease in oil production.
Now, the desert oil producers are deeply worried that Iran, freed from US economic prison, will soon begin exporting at least 500,000 bbls a day of oil. Iraqis oil production is finally returning to pre-US invasion levels. Oil prices could drop even further unless a deal is reached.
But Saudi Arabia is so petrified of Iran it is very reluctant to make a deal that will help grow the Islamic Republic’s economy – and hence even limited military power. So what’s to be done?
Some critics are saying that a group of obscenely rich Bedouins should not be allowed to hold the world economy to ransom. The western powers should press the Saudis to cut production or risk seeing vast Saudi investments in the US and Europe frozen – just as was done with Iran. The Saudis should also be told to stop their bloody war against Yemen that has killed thousands, cease their human rights abuses, and cease funding dangerous Islamic extremist movements, including ISIS and Syrian revolutionaries.
Why has this not been done? Because too many American and British politicians are on the Saudi payroll, and too much of Britain’s and America’s arms producers are dependent on Saudi business. The Saudis’ heads have swelled with arrogance while their dim-witted oil policies threaten the global economy.
The Saudis and OPEC must be offered a deal by the great powers that they can’t refuse. Otherwise, the Saudis may remain a bigger threat than ISIS.
112 Comments on "Saudis — Stop the Oil Flood – or Else"
rockman on Sun, 7th Feb 2016 10:27 am
As pointed out many times before nether the KSA or the Rockman can dictate the price we sell our oil. The buyers, essentially the refineries, have the max price they can pay and still make a profit. And that estimate is based upon their projection of what the consumers will pay. The only control producers have is how much of their oil they’ll sell. Oddly enough the Rockman’s company can afford to shut in 99% of its production. OTOH if the KSA reduced production just 1% all it would accomplish is worsening its budget deficit. And that cut won’t increase the price of oil. There’s even a question if a 50% cut of their production would cause an increase in prices given additional oil coming into the market place now.
IOW the KSA has no more choice to reduce production then almost every other US shale player: all are desperately dependent upon maximizing cash flow.
Newfie on Sun, 7th Feb 2016 10:33 am
It’s a free market. They can sell as much oil as they please. Get over it.
shortonoil on Sun, 7th Feb 2016 10:41 am
“The result of Saudi Arabia’s oil price war has been to drive the once “black gold” down to around $32 a barrel from a high of $105 in 2015.”
The price of oil is going down primarily because the value of oil to the economy is going down:
http://www.thehillsgroup.org/depletion2_022.htm
Of course it is easier to put the blame on 7th century troglodytes than to acknowledge a process that was very known to the Romans 2,000 years ago. Depletion is the inevitable consequence of resource extraction. It falls into the same category as the sun will rise in the morning, and water will run downhill. For a 150 years the world has extracted the best sources of oil that could be found; for a 150 years the quality of what remained went down. Depletion is now telling us that the Saudis will soon stop flooding the world with oil; it tells us that they will soon stop producing any oil at all. Then the small brained, finger pointing antagonist will get exactly what they asked for; it will all stop!
http://www.thehillsgroup.org/
Boat on Sun, 7th Feb 2016 10:43 am
rockman,
I find it hard to follow that logic. For six years the world consumer proved it could pay 3x the amount were paying now.
If the Saudi were to cut 50% of oil sales there would be an immediate spike in prices until supply caught up with demand.
I believe refineries are just a large consumer not a price setter. Investors play the role of price setting for all commodities. Of course refiners are also investors but are but one fish in the pond.
bug on Sun, 7th Feb 2016 10:51 am
Short,” then the small brained, finger pointing antagonists will get what they asked for; it will all stop”.
True, but the antagonist will then point their fingers somewhere else, as someone is always to blame according to them.
Who and what group will it be?
penury on Sun, 7th Feb 2016 10:57 am
I suppose that his narrative is easier for the sheeple to swallow then the truth, humans have destroyed or over used all the resources on the planet which we need for existence. The planet is in the throes of the Sixth mass extinction event, and we are all going away. To para phrase one author “the light at the end of the tunnel for me, is that at my age I won’t live to see the end.
Apneaman on Sun, 7th Feb 2016 11:07 am
short, I told you before it’s 13th century, not 7th. Stop repeating inaccurate retard white supremacy memes. How is it that America has some of the best humanities depts in the world, but there is no trickle down effect to the sheep? Doesn’t seem to make it’s way across campus to the technical depts either.
paulo1 on Sun, 7th Feb 2016 12:01 pm
Somebody, (Iran) might bomb a Saudi pipeline one of these days. It would makes sense for them and would certainly raise prices. Just send in a false flag proxy to do it. It isn’t like it hasn’t been done in other arenas.
Brett jameson on Sun, 7th Feb 2016 12:58 pm
Trace the evil behind all those years of inflated oil prices and arms deals back to the evil state of Texas.
Wally Ray Sparks on Sun, 7th Feb 2016 1:22 pm
Saudi Arabia could easily strike a deal with Russia and China for protection and throw the entire western community into a tail spin!
Walter Udoing on Sun, 7th Feb 2016 1:33 pm
You would think for a website labeled “Peak Oil” the author would have a broader sense of what is going on here. Why is it up to the Saudi’s. There are now 3 large producers, Russia, US and Saudi. Why is it up to the Saudi’s to cut? Why can’t Russia cut or the US cut? That is the Saudi’s point, it has always been them. They are saying, let someone else do it. Who can argue with that point?
KyleJ on Sun, 7th Feb 2016 1:34 pm
I dont know about the rest of the majority…but for me and mine this has been a gift. My paycheck stays the same if gas is at 5 a gal or 1.30 a gal.
Steve Ragan on Sun, 7th Feb 2016 1:40 pm
Why didn’t this article mention the GOOD things that are happening with declining oil prices?
The GOOD things that are happening with declining oil prices are: people have more money to save or spend, since oil prices are lower, 401(k) money can buy more shares of the oil stocks in their portfolio, airline prices are lower due to the decline in oil prices, that is just a few of the good things that are happening with declining oil prices.
Declining oil prices are really and truly not hurting anyone.
Dan on Sun, 7th Feb 2016 1:40 pm
This is all bullshit. The debacle on worlds economy was due to the high prices of oil during the war in Irak, wich is ironic because the supply never was really affected, and the oil industry made insanely amounts of money while the rest of the planet was suffering a lack of it. Now those crooks and the crooks of Wall Street are crying trying to convince every one the expensive oil is good for the economy!! Such idea is not only absurd but also offensive to human intelligence. Cheap oil prices means lower production costs, lower logistics costs, more money on regular people pocket to buy more goods and services. How is that bad for the global economy ?? Then what will we do when the world runs out of oil?? A total collapse ?? The truth is that the oil´s era is in the beginning of its demise, and that is the best thing that could happen to the world.
FrankLong on Sun, 7th Feb 2016 1:49 pm
I just don’t believe my eyes: Until recently there was loud choir singing that oil falling like a stone is an excellent sanction to bring Russia to its knees fast while everybody else will be fine.
WW3? on Sun, 7th Feb 2016 1:50 pm
The problem here is in the cultures.
Arabians in any country still leaving as they were living thousands of yrs. ago, they’re treating their own people as slaves, are against women rights in general.
According to their way of managing life, we all should live in poverty under their sickening religious islam’s rules.
We all know that politicians are next in the scale on selling their black souls to anyone just for a profit even though betraying their country in the intent.
Solar energy is the next safe step for the world, but the oil barons sooner than later will take care of it so it will be worse than the oil race.
A world wide war will fix the fanatic race for the money’s hungry bastards.
Wilbur on Sun, 7th Feb 2016 1:51 pm
honestly – the sky was falling when the prices went crazy high after Katrina, and my gibbs gut says all of these economies thought it would not end. Now that the prices are falling they are not willing to live within the new norm of lower prices. It seems to me just because it WAS above 100 a barrel, they should have banked the money for a day like now that the prices have dropped. Honestly – why was it when it was high the pundits said – oil shortage we are going to run out.. now we are in a glut… Could one say – the narrative being told is not actually the truth? Is it my or your problem that the rich banked on high prices – and now they are getting hit hard? All I know is I rolled my 401k over and it is sitting in cash – until this mess is over then will reinvest – and like the fall of 2007/08 – make a killing HOPEFULLY
dn32844 on Sun, 7th Feb 2016 1:52 pm
I’m so happy to see at least one publication finally found guts to say what voiceless people like me have been saying for decade, which is “Many of the U.S. and British politicians as well as their weapon makers are in the pocket of Al-Saud family tyrannical regime”. Anglo/American created that phony kingdom for the sake of OIL and turned it into one of their most lucrative weapon markets. Hypocrisy of Anglo/American go as far as calling worst tyrannical regime of Al-Saud tribe their “close ally” while go to wars and murder innocent people in the name of Democracy in other countries. Those who have put their hope on the slogans of Democracy and Liberty preached by the U.S. and its ally Britain need to see true face of evil behind Al-Saud family savageries.
PARSUCKS on Sun, 7th Feb 2016 1:57 pm
need to stop buying oil from these ragheads peroid. become indepenant save jobs in u.s.
shortonoil on Sun, 7th Feb 2016 2:07 pm
[i]”I dont know about the rest of the majority…but for me and mine this has been a gift. My paycheck stays the same if gas is at 5 a gal or 1.30 a gal.”[/i]
At $30, 90% of the industry is no longer covering its full life cycle production cost. When the industry can no longer make money producing oil, they stop. That will be when you don’t have any paycheck at all. Oil is what powers the world. The oil age is rapidly coming to its conclusion; 70% of the world’s remaining reserves were wiped out in one year. The price of gas should be the least of anyone’s worries.
Momo on Sun, 7th Feb 2016 2:08 pm
I agree,arrogance is the driver for SKA. SKA is trying to teach the west a lesson over thier deal with Iran. Not only with price wall but also by dumping its investments and driving stock markets into severs losses. SKA owns large holdings of USA/Europe banks!! SKA will run out of money and oil. I ask: market share of 20% at $30/b or 10% at $100/b??
Dorwin on Sun, 7th Feb 2016 2:09 pm
It wasn’t long ago when I read what a devastating effect OIL prices above $32/bbl would/was having on global economies.(MANUFACTURING, TRANSPORTATION, STOCK MARKET, ETC.)
Now I read what a devastating effect LOW oil prices are having on world economies.
It seems to me the only people that low oil prices hurt is the OIL PRODUCERS who have been raking in excess profits at oil prices above $32/BBL – and perhaps those who speculated that $100+/bbl prices was here to stay.
I view any argument that high oil prices are necessary for our economy as being written by or for the oil interests.
Dutchwayne on Sun, 7th Feb 2016 2:12 pm
funny opinion piece, and utterly clueless. The Saudis are in a trap. If they raise prices, Iran gets the resources to topple them. It is that simple. BUT the real problem is why the Saudis are in this situation. IF Obama were not openly supporting Iran and deliberately withdrawing US forces from the Gulf region, The Saudis probably would have stabilized oil at $60. But from their perspective, it is clear they view Obama as an Iranian ally who wants to see the kingdom fall. Some will scream I am lying, but why else would Obama withdraw US power? EVERYONE familiar with the region knows the US has been the stabilizing force that kept things contained. The American withdrawal under Obama’s orders is like pour gasoline on a fire. Most of the Middle East is now in flames with a Muslim religious war raging everywhere. Millions of Christians and other religious minorities are getting slaughtered. It is the worst bloodbath since WW2. In simple terms, the Saudis have no options left. They have to fight a total war to protect themselves and their interests.
mick lockwood on Sun, 7th Feb 2016 2:12 pm
this is great. someone is manipulating oil and blaming it on the USA, SAUDIS AND RUSSIA. wake up fools there are more powerfull people than GOVERNMENTS. these people are making billions on this oil mess
Paul on Sun, 7th Feb 2016 2:38 pm
The people claiming this to be a free market are delusional. The government of Saudi Arabia is “dumping oil” in order to conduct a trade war. The USA should impose serious tariff barriers to protect domestic oil production.
paul on Sun, 7th Feb 2016 2:43 pm
since when is it a free market? now that the saudis dictate it? give me a break. Rumfield, Cheney and bush sold america to their saudi pig fornicators
ytyt on Sun, 7th Feb 2016 2:46 pm
oil price drop always preceeds economic boom. oil price rise always preceeds economic slowdown. low oil price – GREAT THING!!!!
harold on Sun, 7th Feb 2016 2:51 pm
business opportunity ? so the going rate for crude is $30 / 42 gal barrel. Thats about 70 cents a gallon. Then it must be transported to the refinery, refined, transported to market retailers and everyone needs to cover costs and expect to make a profit. Then along comes government and wants their blackmail cut at 18.4 cents a gallon. States are no better requiring a higher unearned share, lets say a average of 40 cents a gallon. (Obama has proposed to add to that extortion a $10 tax per barrel produced that would add just under 24 cents per gallon at the market. Down my street a gas station is advertising regular grade gas at $1.33 per gallon. It does not take a rocket scientist to take these figures and determine that there is no way to sustain this business at this these market prices. Its all supply and demand and until that balances itself we will reap temporary benefits of cheap travel. Jerry that used to work as a pumper in the oil patch gets laid off is part of the unfortunate collateral damage. I fully expect some political egghead to start proposing price controls again to turn this all into a big political ploy to sustain their party the great savior of the middle class ! An artificial solution achieved by government controlled economy by ordering production cuts immediately places eve everyone in a chess game we really do not want to be a part. Is it really a situation that we have to let every one pump oil till it just does not make economic sense for them to afford to continue?
Eugene Hancock on Sun, 7th Feb 2016 2:55 pm
This is too good to be true—$1.50/gallon gas—a loss to the politicians of $2.50/gallon!(if they rose the price up to $4.00 again..this would crush the poor,& the struggling middle class,& even crimp the life style of the affluent………but………politicians are like hungry lions & tigers…..when they see this they can’t wait to strike soon……so can we expect the price of gas to rise very soon..due to gas taxes…..massively….
Doug Eckert on Sun, 7th Feb 2016 3:05 pm
Low prices are painful. But, the end result of this might be good. The highest priced oil to produce is deep sea drilling. This price war is likely to eliminate that practice which will be good for the environment. Eventually the price will equal out at the highest price required to produce enough oil to meet demand. It is hard to get information, but, it seems like the deep sea drilling is not required to meet demand. That oil is somewhere in the $65-$75 to produce. The U.S. and other non-OPEC producers are in the $55-$65 range. The high cost producers will hang on until they are bankrupt. 2016? 2017? 2018? When they are, the price will revert to about $65 or so. However, the longer this lasts, the more likely it will go way higher due to the need to catch up with foregone capital projects.
Mr HawkEye on Sun, 7th Feb 2016 3:10 pm
No one can really predict the price of oil 6 months from now. Major US oil companies are cutting way back on exploration and development. A good example is Shell’s pullback from the Arctic. Once the impact of delayed exploration and development reduce the amount of oil offered the price will go back up…but it wont be tomorrow…and unless there is a big war in the Middle East it wont go back up to $100/barrel.
harold on Sun, 7th Feb 2016 3:32 pm
It has been a circulating ideological environmental goal to get rid of all oil use on the planet and power everything with solar. Simplified but that is basically it. So when I go to Europe I will need a LONG extension cord for the boat or a whale of a battery for the plane. I suppose no one ever thought anything else is produced via oil. Would the clothes that grace the body still be there without oil? no, they are mostly poly something that comes from oil refining. We can power the car with the electricity developed with a wind generator in the back yard but the tires on the car are a product of, god forbid, OIL. Fertilizers that help produce crops to feed us are for the most part from OIL. Back to the vehicle we drive, as well as airplanes are a great deal made of plastics derived from OMG, OIL ! I just looked around me, the computer, windows, furniture on the deck, paint, carpet, tools, water and natural gas pipes, toys, appliances, etc all are some form of the plastics industry grounded in oil. Unless people all have the ability to live as a hermit and never go beyond walking distance away we are married to OIL. Just as a side thought, remember what pays for the roads to drive the environmentally friendly, pint size, electric vehicle ? Gas taxes ! Has any of these pie in the sky idiots thought a inch beyond their nose? Doubtfully.
Boat on Sun, 7th Feb 2016 3:38 pm
Doug,
I agree with you. Humans tend to overshoot under production and then over production. With fracking tech and oil all over the world in rock I do think six years of the short supply the world recently went through will be much shorter in the future.
Jerry on Sun, 7th Feb 2016 3:49 pm
I don’t see why low oil prices are bad for the economy. It’s good for mine. Since prices declined I’ve been able to pay my remaining debts at a faster pace and have more money to spend on other things as well. I’m sure this is true for millions of others as well.
Boat on Sun, 7th Feb 2016 3:56 pm
Nobody said capitalism was easy. Put on your big boy pants.
shortonoil on Sun, 7th Feb 2016 4:00 pm
“No one can really predict the price of oil 6 months from now.”
No can determine what the price will be tomorrow, but we have determined what the maximum price will be, and have for the last 49 years.
http://www.thehillsgroup.org/depletion2_022.htm
We even projected the price decline six months in advance of the decline (the dates are on the graphs).
The industry has lost over $3 trillion in revenue since the price decline began in June 2014. The price will never again become high enough to compensate for that loss. The industry is now mortally wounded. It can no longer replace the reserves that it is extracting, nor will it ever be able to again. Depletion is an ongoing, inevitable process that can not be stopped. All that is now to be done is to watch the industry disappear; one step at a time.
http://www.thehillsgroup.org/
john on Sun, 7th Feb 2016 4:16 pm
You’re bullshit the economy collapse when the prices of oil is high but the when the prices of oil is low atleast many citizenry will be benefitted.
Sam on Sun, 7th Feb 2016 4:17 pm
The author claims that politicians are on a Saudi Payroll. Care to give us some names instead of your strange statements or they all are? Care to explain the US natural gas low price? The article is very unprofessional with claims that are not supported by anything. It is just shame that he was allowed to publish this!@#$@#
john on Sun, 7th Feb 2016 4:20 pm
Business is competition so if you want to be in business then the prices should be competitive and not to control or manipulate the prices. Many citizenry are enjoying the low price of oil so stop blaming anyone if the price is low
tc hagge on Sun, 7th Feb 2016 4:28 pm
Gee. U think the writer is pro-oil. WHY Didn’t we raise oil prices 100 years ago, if the logic it that oil companies, countries, must make the most they can….screw the people, let them eat cake, follow by a big drink of oil. IT IS THE BATTLE OF PROPAGANDA NOW, THROW THE FACTS OUT THE WINDOW……CONVINCE THE PEOPLE,HIGH OVER-RATED COSTS TO EXTRACT OIL FROM THE GROUND IS GOOD FOR THEM, AND THE CAT, AND THE CAT’S CAT’S……
Jim S. on Sun, 7th Feb 2016 4:45 pm
Why not a $40/barrel tariff on foreign oil, and let our shalers produce the rest. Now that they can sell worldwide, it would generate taxes and jobs here in America. Or is OBama’s idea of energy independence just a sick joke?
sam on Sun, 7th Feb 2016 4:48 pm
The truth is that US and British politicians are on Israel-Jewish payroll, and US and British industrialists are on Saudi payroll.
The falling price of oil is good for people around the world. They can now stay warm and save money. It is bad for the few greedy Wall Street brokers who lost money as the oil share took a nose dived.
John on Sun, 7th Feb 2016 4:49 pm
simply put the writer of this article Eric S. Margolis is bias. He could be a stock holder loosing money.
Frank on Sun, 7th Feb 2016 4:54 pm
Very simple – Put an import tax on Saudi oil to the US to the point of $60 a barrel. This will even the playing field for US oil. The Saudi’s will cut production organically.
For those of you who say this is not free market, correct, neither is what the Saudi’s are doing
The Saudi’s have declared WAR on the US. Wake up!
Earl on Sun, 7th Feb 2016 5:16 pm
What fools. Do they think the oil beneath the Dakotas, Texas etc is going to go away? Some other company will be formed and pump it out. Every Dog has its day and the Saudi’s have had theirs.
mike on Sun, 7th Feb 2016 5:29 pm
Let the Saudis commit suicide by crude. Sure they are taking a few US states with them, plus Russia and Venezuela and the frackers. This is an example of “be careful what you wish for.” You can;t hate the Saudis for high crude prices and then for low crude prices. Of course American feel they have a natural birthright to cheap gasoline.
shortonoil on Sun, 7th Feb 2016 5:30 pm
“You’re bullshit the economy collapse when the prices of oil is high but the when the prices of oil is low atleast many citizenry will be benefitted.”
The economy collapses when the petroleum industry goes out of business; it accounts for 38% of the world’s GDP directly, and indirectly. It provides almost all the energy used for transportation; without transportation there is no economy. When oil producers can no longer make money producing oil they will stop. They ain’t your mommy, and they don’t do it for the fun. At $30/ barrel the industry can no longer make money producing oil. Their E&P cost is better than $20/ barrel. BP lost $billions last year, the Saudis now have to borrow money to pay their bills, and the nation with the largest oil reserves in the world can’t afford toilet paper. There is a train wreck coming, and you are sleeping on the tracks.
robm12345 on Sun, 7th Feb 2016 5:34 pm
It’s true that in a price war, everyone takes a hit. The miscalculation that SA made was that the US has a highly diversified economy whereas the SA economy is pretty much entirely oil. So when that two edged sword of a price war cuts oil prices, it’s going to cut SA’s entire economy deeply whereas it will only create a flesh wound, at worst, to the US economy. That being the case, any “victory” they might gain would, if not result in the destruction of their economy in the process, would surly be Pyrrhic at best.
But in the process, several other countries with oil based economies that hate us and try to spit in our eye at every turn are going to also suffer gaping wounds to their economies as well – at least we can take some schadenfreude at that after putting up with so much of their spitting in our eyes.
alien on Sun, 7th Feb 2016 5:50 pm
free market, price war is good for the consumers of the world. Price gouging, monopoly is bad for the consumers of the world!
dave on Sun, 7th Feb 2016 6:11 pm
What is the truth? No one seems to have an answer- but this is obvious- the oil situation and dying economy of the world will cause a DESTABILIZATION of the world’s governments- and then the world will be forced to consolidate, into a central world government , so that the countries will at least cooperate enough so that people will be able to live .