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Page added on August 3, 2014

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Sanctions Target Russian Oil, But Will That Persuade Putin?

Both the United States and Europe announced this week against Russia for its role in the conflict in Ukraine. Among other things, Western companies will no longer be able to sell Russia new technologies to develop its oil fields.

The move comes at a time when oil exports have become more important than ever for the Russian economy.

President Obama says the sanctions are meant to send a strong message:

“We’ve also made it clear, as I have many times, that if Russia continues on its current path, the cost on Russia will continue to grow,” he said earlier this week. “Today is a reminder that the United States means what it says.”

Targeting Russia’s energy sector is one way the West is hoping to get its point across.

It’s hard to overestimate the importance of energy to Russia’s economy. Three-quarters of everything Russia exports are commodities, and most of that is oil and natural gas. Yet the sanctions imposed this week are limited. For one thing, European officials insisted that the sanctions not apply to natural gas exports.

“Europe now gets probably 25 to 30 percent of the natural gas it uses from Russia, and the Europeans don’t want to see that cut off,” says Steven Pifer, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine.

Nor will the sanctions affect oil production that’s taking place now. Any impact the sanctions will have on the oil sector is very long-term. Russia now has vast oil supplies, exporting 10 million barrels a day. But over the next few decades, the reserves are expected to run dry.

“As the Russians deplete their existing oil fields,” says Pifer, “they’re looking offshore, they’re looking up into the north in the Arctic area, the northern parts of Russia — and there’s significant potential there. And so they want to bring fields up there online as they draw down and deplete existing fields.”

In a corporate video, the Russian oil company Rosneft boasts that hundreds of geological sites are being explored throughout Russia:”Western and eastern Siberia, south and central Russia, Far East and Arctic sea shelves are major resources of oil and gas not only for the company, but also for all of Russia,” the video says.

And yet to tap these new fields, Russia depends on Western companies like BP, Halliburton and Exxon Mobil, all of which are engaged in lucrative joint projects with Russian companies.

“Both the drilling technology, the special muds, the technology for fracturing those shales and bringing it back up — all that was invented by U.S. companies and U.S. technology,” says David Goldwyn, a former State Department official who now heads an energy consulting firm.

Goldwyn says Russia also needs help from U.S. companies to build drilling rigs in the Arctic. “So by barring the exports of technologies which are necessary for that production, we have essentially dramatically impeded the future of Russian oil production.”

Whether this is enough to get Russia to change course anytime soon is very much unclear. Matthew Rojansky of the Woodrow Wilson center is skeptical. He says President Vladimir Putin has invested a lot of his political power in the Ukraine conflict; his survival as a leader may be at stake.

“I still query whether the leverage that we can realistically have at the end of the day is enough to overcome the competing pressure that Mr. Putin feels, because I think that that competing pressure is far greater than we have understood it.”

With so much at risk, the impact of the sanctions on Russia’s oil industry years from now probably doesn’t register as a priority for Putin. Western officials may have to show they’re willing to go even further than they already have if they hope to have any real impact on what Russia does next.

NPR



43 Comments on "Sanctions Target Russian Oil, But Will That Persuade Putin?"

  1. dissident on Sun, 3rd Aug 2014 6:40 am 

    The question should be whether the west’s bloody hypocrite sanctions will convince the Russian people. The western media is a stupid joke that takes itself seriously. I recall the endless repetition of the poll results in the USA showing that most Americans believe that Saddam Hussein staged the 9/11 attack. This repetition was clearly used to give G. W. Bush legitimacy as enacting the will of the people. Compare to the coverage of Russia: it is routine not produce a single poll result showing what Russians believe. And Russians have looked to western information sources since the cold war.

    Even all of the polling results in Ukraine have been “forgotten”. The ones that highlight that the current regime in Kiev is illegal regardless of Poroshenko’s fraudulent election.

    While the Kiev regime butchers civilians with artillery barrages and MLRS attacks day in and day out, the western media circus focuses attention onto some fictional wrong doing by Russia. Russia should respond to this hate propaganda by properly supply the rebels with weapons and establishing a no fly zone over the Donbas.

  2. Davy on Sun, 3rd Aug 2014 6:49 am 

    I have yet to find a MSM outlet to grasp the subtleties of the global energy predicament. This gets translated into the political sphere. The real tragedy is the cornucopian have succeeded in shaping the discussion around the message of plenty and because of this plenty we can practice trade warfare to achieve dubious political objectives. The GP has been drawn into a false sense of comfort. I am amazed the public is not up in arms in Europe with a looming energy war. One must admit if you back an animal into a corner it will defend itself. The whole discussion on Russian punishment is a dangerous one with a GP in a state of comfort. The economic damage from an all-out energy and economic conflict will tip a dangerous financial situation over the edge IMO. These simmering conflicts can easily spin out of control especially with intractable political positions. We have strong personalities and ideological groups in the driver seat now with little appreciation for our shared dependence on each other. I am hoping TPTB (both sides) will turn back after looking over the edge. In a highly complex interconnect global world we fail more often than not to relate problems somewhere else with risk to our local. In this complex global world there is a degree of resilience but it is a brittle resilience. There is efficiency a high level of production and all this properly distributed. This resilience goes as far as the critical nodes that drive efficiency, production, and distribution. Does the GP in Europe and the US really realize that a damaged Russia will affect them? Russia is a critical node as a top energy producer in a global energy market. Will the average Russian realize Putt’s adventurism (right or wrong) is a real danger to their comfort and happiness? As a global world we all want prosperity but we do not want to yield our ideologies to common cooperation to maintain this prosperity. Beyond this sacrifice of our beliefs and possessions for the common good is the fact that we have gone too far to go back to a less complex world. When we entered that fatal embrace with globalism we handed over our local self-sufficiency for a common shared prosperity. This condition is complex because it is as much a self-organizing phenomenon as a conscious effort of groups and individuals. This fatal embrace has basically come down to growth. To achieve further growth as we approached limits of growth and diminishing returns globalism was our last option at growth. The further and the farther we enter that globalized economy with increasing complexity the further our locals become delocalized and unsupported. We now depend on a vast distribution system held together by an unstable global financial system. So we have a brittle global system with a world population in overshoot and worldwide ecosystems on the brink of collapse. Yet, with all this the cornucopians can sell optimism and independence of action. This is a fools game and it will not end well.

  3. Arthur on Sun, 3rd Aug 2014 7:16 am 

    These sanctions are a nice opportunity for Russia to spend it’s excess dollar reserves on suckers still accepting this currency, while sparing it’s own oil and gas reserves. In the future all that counts is owning gold and fossil fuel, not dollars.

    One barrel of oil represents eight manyear of hard manual labor. It currently sells at a bargain price of 100$, at some point not too far in the future, it could be sold for 200-500$, so selling now does not make sense. Let the Arabs sell their reserves first.

    All Russia needs to do is hold out against western pressure until the winter, then the tide will change. Only nice people will receive some fuel, others won’t.

  4. Davy on Sun, 3rd Aug 2014 8:12 am 

    Art, you are leaning Russian these days. If only life were so simple. Those days are over Art, especially for Europe.

  5. Boat on Sun, 3rd Aug 2014 8:42 am 

    Increased economic pressures due to fuel prices is good for the worlds population overshoot.
    There is less sex in unsettling times. The last time I checked the Russians avg family is at 1.6 members per family up from 1.2 after the Collapse of the Soviet Union. It takes 2.1 for population sustainability. Russians leaders have always shown the will to sacrifice population for political power. Three cheers to Putin and a future smaller Russian population.

  6. Arthur on Sun, 3rd Aug 2014 8:44 am 

    I am leaning towards Russia from the very moment that Putin, Chiraq and Schroeder said no to the Iraq safari, in 2003. The US elite and their European lapdogs want to turn the West into a third world cess pool. Count me out. Putin is the last hope that European civilization can be saved as a European civilization. The Anglo-Zionist elite is a luxury European civilization can no longer afford. So this elite needs to go, if necessary the hard way. And as a last resort, even using China. And every American constitutionslist patriot should support this goal. People like Alex Jones and Paul Craig Roberts do not need to be convinced. You?

  7. Boat on Sun, 3rd Aug 2014 8:57 am 

    Russia and China are just regional powers. The US is the only global power. That does not make us elite, just a country with crazy military power which most of us in the US like and want but not the way it was used in Iraq and Afganistan. Tis why we changed parties and have forced Obama to be much less a military cowboy. Arther you just don’t understand the American population.

  8. Davy on Sun, 3rd Aug 2014 9:22 am 

    Art, Europe is a piece of ham between two pieces of bread ready to be eaten by a bear and an eagle. Maybe you should be careful what you wish for.

    BTW 4500ft above Lake Michigan texting my buddy Art in Europe. Strange world we live in. Don’t worry I am copilot so not texting and flying

  9. dissident on Sun, 3rd Aug 2014 9:36 am 

    Someone brought up population. Check out the EU numbers for fertility, they are no better than Russia’s. The EU will be a North African Caliphate in the next few decades at current fertility rates of immigrants and the rate of immigration.

    As Confucius say: people in glass houses should not throw bricks.

  10. Arthur on Sun, 3rd Aug 2014 9:38 am 

    Davy, that piece of ham metaphor applied indeed in 1945. But this is 2014, with 500 million Europeans united under one currency and integrated economic and political system. We have run this planet between 1492-1945, until we were defeated by the bear-eagle alliance. Those days won’t return, but we are a little too strong for the museum yet. A Greater European-Chinese bipolarity should be in the cards for this century.

    Btw are you seriously suggesting you have a cellphone connection at 4500 feet above Lake Michigan?

  11. JuanP on Sun, 3rd Aug 2014 9:49 am 

    One of our daily doses of MSM anti Russian BS.
    I believe we will sooner or later burn all the oil we can get our hands on everywhere in the world for as long as possible and we will delay, deny, procrastinate, and invent excuses for our doing so till after my death at least.
    Russia has more land, water, food, and energy than they need, and then some. If we couldn’t defeat the Cuban government with more than half a century of embargoes and blockades, we can’t defeat Russia this way either.
    I am afraid that based on my daily interactions with people from all over the world I have reached the conclusion that the USA is losing badly this propaganda and economic war against Russia and that we would be smart to get out of Ukraine now. The majority of the population of the world is taking Russia’s side on this matter, in spite, and because of all the lies and nonsense that US government characters like Obama, Kerry, Nuland, and Psaki keep spewing daily. I just don’t believe anyone anymore.

  12. JuanP on Sun, 3rd Aug 2014 10:00 am 

    Dissident. I, personally, consider a contracting population, like they have in Japan and Russia for example, a major strategic advantage for any country in today’s collapsing world. The same goes for a lower population density, countries like Canada, Russia, and Australia have an advantage there.

  13. Boat on Sun, 3rd Aug 2014 10:03 am 

    dissident, my point was that populations decrease during economic stressful periods, if not for immigration many other countries would lose population also….including the US

  14. nemteck on Sun, 3rd Aug 2014 10:13 am 

    “…. dramatically impeded the future of Russian oil production.” From where do the European countries get the oil lost from Russia?

    “Western officials may have to show they’re willing to go even further than they already have…” The European citizens have to show they are willing to live in the cold and to sustain a higher unemployment.

  15. bobinget on Sun, 3rd Aug 2014 10:19 am 

    Almost everything so far, is going according to Putin’s
    plan. Notice, every time combat in the Ukraine begins to calm, Russia throws more gasoline on the fire.

    EVERY movement has fanatics within its rank and file.
    (think about that for a moment)

    Behind the scene leaderships carefully manipulate
    its activists, mainly fantasists.

    President Putin, I’m convinced, is determined to make Russia once again, a world power. (perhaps) in concert with China, THE world power. (any argument?)

    I’m also convinced President Putin understood from true beginnings what ‘moves’ the West were capable of making in response to Russian aggression.
    V.Putin can predict how ten Western democracies will react to any given new outrage far more easily than the reverse. Don’t forget for a moment, it really is all about controlling the world’s oil supplies.

    EVERYTHING at this point depends on if Russia and Iran
    can prevail in Syria against oil financed, ultimately fanatical ISIS. Allow me to post the latest Wikipedia entry on this most important (political) issue.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_State_of_Iraq_and_the_Levant

    The Islamic State [41] previously known as the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), alternately translated as the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) or the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (referring to Greater Syria; Arabic: الدولة الاسلامية ‎ al-Dawlah al-Islāmīyah), also previously known by the Arabic acronym DAESH (Arabic: داعش‎ Dāʻesh), now called simply the Islamic State (IS)[7][42] (Arabic: الدولة الإسلامية‎ al-Dawlah al-Islāmīyah), is an unrecognized state and a jihadist group. In its self-proclaimed status as a caliphate, it claims religious authority over all Muslims across the world [41] and aspires to bring much of the Muslim-inhabited regions of the world under its direct political control,[1] beginning with nearby territory in the Levant region, which includes Jordan, Israel, Palestine, Lebanon, Cyprus, and an area in southern Turkey that includes Hatay.[43][44] The group has been officially designated as a foreign terrorist organization by the United States,[45] the United Kingdom,[46] Canada,[47] Australia,[48] Saudi Arabia[49] and the United Nations,[50] and has been widely described as a terrorist group by Western media sources.[16][51][52][53][54]

    The group, in its original form, was composed of and supported by a variety of Sunni insurgent groups, including its predecessor organizations, the Mujahideen Shura Council, the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI) and Al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI), the insurgent groups Jaysh al-Fatiheen, Jund al-Sahaba, Katbiyan Ansar Al-Tawhid wal Sunnah and Jeish al-Taiifa al-Mansoura, and a number of Iraqi tribes that profess Sunni Islam.

    ISIS grew significantly as an organization owing to its participation in the Syrian Civil War and the strength of its leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. Economic and political discrimination against Iraqi Sunnis since the fall of Saddam Hussein also helped it to gain support. At the height of the Iraq War, its forerunners enjoyed a significant presence in the Iraqi governorates of Al Anbar, Ninawa, Kirkuk, most of Salah ad Din, parts of Babil, Diyala and Baghdad, and claimed Baqubah as a capital city.[55][56][57][58] In the ongoing Syrian Civil War, ISIS has a large presence in the Syrian governorates of Ar-Raqqa, Idlib and Aleppo.[59][60]

    ISIS is known for its harsh interpretation of Wahhabi Islam[citation needed] and its brutal violence,[53][61] which is directed at Shia Muslims and Christians in particular.[62] It has at least 4,000 fighters in its ranks in Iraq[51] who, in addition to attacks on government and military targets, have claimed responsibility for attacks that have killed thousands of civilians.[63] ISIS had close links with al-Qaeda until 2014, but in February of that year, after an eight-month power struggle, al-Qaeda cut all ties with the group, reportedly for its brutality and “notorious intractability”.[64][65]

    ISIS’s original aim was to establish a caliphate in the Sunni-majority regions of Iraq. Following its involvement in the Syrian Civil War, this expanded to include controlling Sunni-majority areas of Syria.[66] A caliphate was proclaimed on 29 June 2014, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi—now known as Amir al-Mu’minin Caliph Ibrahim—was named as its caliph, and the group was renamed the Islamic State.[5][6][7]

  16. JuanP on Sun, 3rd Aug 2014 10:50 am 

    Bob, I think Putin is reacting more than acting in Ukraine, and he doesn’t like the situation one bit. He is probably very happy to have Crimea back, though. We see what’s happening there very differently, but I wellcome your perspective. I have learned to learn from people I disagree. I guess we will agree on other things. We can surely at least agree to disagree. 😉

  17. Plantagenet on Sun, 3rd Aug 2014 11:33 am 

    The sanctions set up by Obama and the EU are too weak to cause Putin to change course in Ukraine. Rather than pulling back from supplying the pro-Russian militias, Putin has escalated the conflict by having his military shell Ukraine from Russian territory.

  18. turningpoint on Sun, 3rd Aug 2014 11:34 am 

    The bizarre tag team between Wilsonian Leftists and neo-cons, share a grandiose vision of a utopian future in which democracy spreads throughout the world, with or without a strong constitution, that will solve all the world’s problems. All it takes these days, is a purple finger. It will be a panacea for all the world’s ills and the whole world will eventually love us for it.

    Russians, and the world would like to thank you, just as soon as all of us survivors, in the northern hemisphere dig ourselves out of the rubble and fallout you’ve left behind.

    Some in my country may be psychotic, delusional, paranoid, neurotic, narcissistic, self absorbed, shallow, maniacal, and apparently suicidal too; a dangerous combination when mixed with thousands of thermonuclear weapons on both sides.

    Russia is also paranoid, but based on your history, you have good cause.

    Our Federal Republic insists eastern Ukrainians cannot have Federalism or autonomy. For some unknown reason, they most have a centralized government who can terrorize them, bomb them, and try to prevent them from speaking Russian.

    Many of our citizens and politicians don’t care if Russia has the ability to destroy our country. Despite the Ukraine being a divided, we insist on using economic warfare against you to keep your country economically weak and to pry the Ukraine from your sphere of influence. No matter the cost, we intend to prevail.

    Hopefully this doesn’t end bad but global events sometimes have a way of spiraling out of control when passions and psychological disorders are involved. As a minion with no chance of survival, I’d like to wish TPTB on all sides good luck to you and yours, and I hope all of your bunkers and fallout shelters are well stocked. And again Wilsonian Leftists and neo-cons, thank you.

  19. Northwest Resident on Sun, 3rd Aug 2014 11:39 am 

    The economic sanctions against Russia give both Putin and European leaders an excellent excuse to explain away their economic contraction. If they didn’t have the excuse of the Ukraine chaos and the sanctions against Russia, they’d have to make up a different excuse.

    There are many reasons why both Russia and Europe need a scapegoat to blame for their economic problems — like the cold weather in the USA was used as the go-to excuse to explain away very poor economic performance. IF they didn’t have such great excuses ready to bullshit the masses with, then they might get put into the uncomfortable position of actually having to explain the REAL reasons why their economies are performing so poorly — and just a little truth about our actual situation is what TPTB desperately want to keep hidden from the masses.

    “German economic growth will shrink towards zero in the second quarter” – Ifo head”

    Head of Ifo (Information and Forschung (research) – a Munich-based economic research institution), Hans-Werner Sinn, writing in a guest column for Wirtschaftswoche magazine says German economic growth will shrink towards zero in Q2 (from 0.8% Q1) due to the Ukraine crisis and the new economic sanctions imposed on Russia:

    •Says forecasts that Germany’s economy would expand by 0.3% in the second quarter have to be revised down

    •“It looks like there will be a longer break in the economic upturn that began in the second half of last year and continued through the winter months”

    •“The growth forecast that Ifo presented last month will likely have to be revised downward. The assumption that the second quarter will have grown 0.3 percent from the first quarter can no longer be held onto. It’s more likely that there was zero growth in the second quarter”

    Get used to zero growth (or less) in coming quarters, Europe — and Russia. It is inevitable, with or without sanctions. When you run out of excuses and there aren’t any lies left to tell the restless, unhappy masses, you better be ready for the resulting chaos which will surely erupt.

  20. turningpoint on Sun, 3rd Aug 2014 12:00 pm 

    Just trying to amuse myself.

  21. JuanP on Sun, 3rd Aug 2014 12:14 pm 

    NWR, all these contracting economies in conflict places reduce their energy consumption and production causing local collapses that allow BAU to last a little bit more elsewhere.
    This is a musical chairs game we are playing, maybe, collapsing other nations as necessary to allow the declining resources to keep BAU up for a while longer for TPTB in other places. I believe the whole of Africa will go this way, too, and many Asian countries.
    The number of places holding up will continue to get smaller and smaller until we run out of chairs. The rich and powerful will build their own island bunkers all over. Islands are the way to go if you can afford them and all the infrastructure and supplies.

  22. Plantagenet on Sun, 3rd Aug 2014 12:23 pm 

    Putin isn’t interested in “island bunkers.” Putin is interested in reconstituting the territory of the former USSR/Russian Empire by re-absorbing countries like Ukraine that formerly were under Russian control.

  23. JuanP on Sun, 3rd Aug 2014 12:36 pm 

    Plant, Putin already owns his own private islands bunkers and has access to Russian government ones. Several of them. Do some research on the palace at Lake Valdai, for example. I’ve heard he has access to more than 20 island retreats.
    And we disagree on what Putin wants. I think Putin is a nationalist, first and foremost, and his main strategic goal is to ensure the long term survival and viability of Russia, mostly as it is today, Russia doesn’t need more land or resources.

  24. Northwest Resident on Sun, 3rd Aug 2014 1:02 pm 

    Juan — I agree 100% with both of your above posts. No way could I have said it better. Just a couple of additional points: As the various countries descend into chaos, the benefit to TPTB are two-fold — first, they don’t have to fess up to the fact that the world is rapidly running out of energy and that we are descending into oblivion — second, it gives them the excuse to deploy increasingly harsh security and economic measures and mentally prepares the populace for very difficult and dangerous times ahead. And regarding your rebuttal to our resident Obama-blamer-in-chief, let me add that not only does Russia currently have all the land and resources it needs, it has more territory than it will ever be able to hold together as a contiguous governmental entity when TSHTF. Taking on Crimea is one thing — Crimea IS Russian. Taking on other satellite territories is exactly what Russia has no inclination, money or political will to do. Plant’s assertions are, as frequently is the case, quite absurd.

  25. turningpoint on Sun, 3rd Aug 2014 1:27 pm 

    Plant. don’t be an idiot-logue. Putin has no interest in taking hostile regions. He had a motive, the will and opportunity to take the Crimea, but they were not hostile to Russia. With NATO marching east, he was left little choice.

    The Obama administration is acting very stupid on this one.

  26. James on Sun, 3rd Aug 2014 1:27 pm 

    If Russia has a lot of oil now. Why can’t they just wait the sanctions out? The U.S. will be needing their oil soon. Also, why can’t the engineers and geologists in Russia come up with their own drilling technologies? The U.S. isn’t the only country who has all of the know how to do this. Also, China and all the anti-american countries could help to overcome the so called technologies that the U.S. says it has. Russia is the worlds biggest country so what would we and the west have that they couldn’t mine or produce themselves? They have to have 3-4 times more natural resources than the west has.

  27. JuanP on Sun, 3rd Aug 2014 1:32 pm 

    NWR, I don’t think Putin or Russians in general have imperial ambitions. Putin probably understands that holding Russia in one piece is the largest geopolitical challenge facing them this century.
    On your point of wars being like Nintendos and Kim Kardashian, entertainment and distraction for the masses, while at the same time getting them scared and insecure and making them more submissive and easily subjected to eroding rights and state control, spying, and manipulation, I agree, too. Bread and circus, some things never change.

  28. Boat on Sun, 3rd Aug 2014 1:33 pm 

    The US still imports oil from Russia

    http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_neti_a_ep00_imn_mbblpd_m.htm

  29. shortonoil on Sun, 3rd Aug 2014 3:41 pm 

    “Both the drilling technology, the special muds, the technology for fracturing those shales and bringing it back up — all that was invented by U.S. companies and U.S. technology,” says David Goldwyn, a former State Department official who now heads an energy consulting firm.”

    This can be classified as pure propaganda. Russia’s interest in shale production is most likely zero to nil. Russia has huge untapped high permeability condensate fields. Fields like the Shtokmanovskyov field in the Barents Sea. Russia has no need to go drilling in some brick yard to find LTO. For them to go poking around in shale, which would have production costs many times higher than the resources they already have in place, is almost bordering on the absurd. The sanctions are to influence the American public, they will certainly have no impact on the Russian oil industry.

    http://www.thehillsgroup.org/

  30. Northwest Resident on Sun, 3rd Aug 2014 3:50 pm 

    “The sanctions are to influence the American public…”

    Thanks for highlighting the truth. Another most likely reason for the sanctions, already being put into action, is to provide a convenient excuse for economic contraction in Europe in general, and in Germany specifically. I believe we are witnessing staged political drama combined with well-crafted loads of propaganda, all calibrated to detract the masses from focusing on the real problems we as a nation and member of the global economy face. Look for lot more of the same as we head down the backside of the peak oil curve.

  31. Makati1 on Sun, 3rd Aug 2014 8:53 pm 

    Were Americans not so gullible and willing to believe anything that keeps them from seeing reality, they would have a chance to survive the coming war by preventing it. But, as they are led by a lying, hypocritical President and a bunch of immature children in Congress, they will get what they ask for. War with Russia and China. In a few months they have the opportunity to change things, but they won’t.

    Russia is only concerned with Russia. The Russians know they have the resources to wait out the fall of the West. Food, water and energy is sufficient for their population to wait 50 years, if necessary. I doubt that they will have to wait for more than 5 months. Winter is coming to the northern hemisphere…

  32. Makati1 on Sun, 3rd Aug 2014 10:08 pm 

    “…In fact, the Guardian would admit in its 2004 article, “US campaign behind the turmoil in Kiev,” that:

    …while the gains of the orange-bedecked “chestnut revolution” are Ukraine’s, the campaign is an American creation, a sophisticated and brilliantly conceived exercise in western branding and mass marketing that, in four countries in four years, has been used to try to salvage rigged elections and topple unsavory regimes.

    Funded and organized by the US government, deploying US consultancies, pollsters, diplomats, the two big American parties and US non-government organizations, the campaign was first used in Europe in Belgrade in 2000 to beat Slobodan Milosevic at the ballot box.

    Richard Miles, the US ambassador in Belgrade, played a key role. And by last year, as US ambassador in Tbilisi, he repeated the trick in Georgia, coaching Mikhail Saakashvili in how to bring down Eduard Shevardnadze.

    Ten months after the success in Belgrade, the US ambassador in Minsk, Michael Kozak, a veteran of similar operations in central America, notably in Nicaragua, organized a near identical campaign to try to defeat the Belarus hardman, Alexander Lukashenko.

    That one failed. “There will be no Kostunica in Belarus,” the Belarus president declared, referring to the victory in Belgrade.

    But experience gained in Serbia, Georgia and Belarus has been invaluable in plotting to beat the regime of Leonid Kuchma in Kiev.

    The operation – engineering democracy through the ballot box and civil disobedience – is now so slick that the methods have matured into a template for winning other people’s elections…”

    NOTE the year of this article in the Guardian: 2004.

    http://www.globalresearch.ca/the-myth-of-russian-aggression/5394632FYI:

  33. GregT on Mon, 4th Aug 2014 12:24 am 

    An interview with OSCE monitor Michael Bociurkiw who was one of the first at the crash site when the wreckage was still smouldering. After over 10 days at the site he says that no evidence was found of a missile strike, and debris showed signs of heavy machine gun fire.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=76PG9RQStFU#t=470

    The western media BS spin is so thick you can cut it with a knife. TPTB are getting desperate for their NWO. Time is running out.

    In the mean time Gaza is being reduced to rubble, Iraq has been plunged into chaos, again, and the age old game of divide and conquer is going exactly as planned throughout the Middle East.

    I highly suspect that once Putin has been dragged deep enough into this quagmire, Iran will be next, followed by China in the South China Sea.

    The prestitutes are already ramping up the disinformation, the stage is already being set.

    Grab some cold ones, and a very big bag of popcorn, this program is nowhere near finished yet.

  34. Arthur on Mon, 4th Aug 2014 1:12 am 

    It was to be expected, there are rumours that unidentified sources near the investigation team have revealed that cockpit conversation was normal, without signs of emergency, suggesting the Buk scenario.

    http://www.nst.com.my/node/19598

    Unverifiable of course. But Russia is going to be framed anyway. Only hope left: black boxes were in Russian possession for a few days, so maybe they have a copy of the conversation as well, so they can set up the west for the mother of all embarressements, just like they did with the releasing of the Nicky F*ckland telephone call.

  35. GregT on Mon, 4th Aug 2014 1:33 am 

    Arthur,

    Regardless of whether a BUK missile, an onboard explosion, or a shoot down from a military jet, there would be audio recorded of the incident on the CVR. The general public are far too brainwashed to question anything that the media projects anymore. All I hear is parroting of the same media stories, over and over.

    Sorry, not trying to be smug, but everything still appears to be going as planned. I still maintain that Iran and China will be next.

    We shall see.

  36. Arthur on Mon, 4th Aug 2014 1:57 am 

    Plan yes, but plan and implementation are two entirely different things. The only ones the US has in its pockets are the European lapdogs, not the European population, certainly not the Russians, Chinese and world of Islam. And not even a sizeable portion of the US population.

    My prediction is that Orlov is right and that the west is going to collapse politically and financially, in perfect symmetry with how that other globalist shitpile collapsed: Soviet-Russia and their Eastern European lapdogs. From that rubble a new Phoenix will arise: Greater Europa and a Euro-American annex from a balkanized North-America, containing a rising China.

  37. Arthur on Mon, 4th Aug 2014 4:42 am 

    The American ‘fundamentalist’ opposition and defenders of the Constitution identiffied themselves today with the correct approach towards the mh17 drama:

    http://www.lewrockwell.com/2014/08/no_author/the-downing-of-malaysia-air%E2%80%A8/

    They leave all options open about who pulled the trigger and instead concentrate on the geopolitical context.

  38. Arthur on Mon, 4th Aug 2014 6:14 am 

    In the Netherlands there is Elsevier, the Newsweek of the liberal right, the guys with big cars, the good jobs and the pension plans. The editors are as pro-American as you can get and the readership is certainly not anti-American. But when it comes to the mh17 standoff between the US and Russia *they all choose the side of Russia*. And it is not just Dutch Elsevier, it is a general phenomenom in the comments sections and forums everywhere in Europe. There are even media proposed conspiracy theories that the Kremlin is paying all these posters (I have yet to receive a single dime).

    Here is another example with a report about Obama dissing Russia: they do not produce anything, Russian men only have a life expectancy of 60, no migrants want to go to Russia (fails to mention Snowden.lol):

    http://www.elsevier.nl/Buitenland/nieuws/2014/8/Obama-laat-zich-in-interview-denigrerend-uit-over-Rusland-1570658W/

    See comments section in google translate.

    The point I want to make is that there is a huge rift between the European political and media America-oriented elite and the general public. There is no way that the European public is going to be pursuaded to let itself manouver into a major conflict with Russia over Ukraine. The public would much prefer to have nothing to do with yet another Eastern European basket case. It is exactly the same rift between the elite and population in Eastern Europe in 1989. The European elite is playing with fire.

  39. Davy on Mon, 4th Aug 2014 6:55 am 

    Art, the American GP want out of Europe period. It is nice to visit, we love the history, food, but most normal people here know we have plenty of problems at home without being involved in more overseas messes. We are tired of dead soldier returning. We are tired of our treasure going overseas. We are ready to turn inward and this is a good thing. Eventually the GP here will elect a candidate to force some kind of global pullback. This will happen when the financial system sputters and economic uncertainty starts anew. The elites and the wealthy corporations will continue to engage the global system naturally “BUT” as BAU stumbles so will they. It is a matter of time before isolationist have the upper hand. It is a matter of time before localism’s appeal grows and globalism declines. All this is contingent on avoiding a series of conflicts either self-organized by cascading events or engineered like some propose here “OR” little of both. I, being a doomer and prepper, welcome the above. De-growth cannot be managed but the descent can be managed if you realize a new paradigm is now in effect. All forces now will be in the direction of descent. If you fight the descent then you are fighting the current. We all know if you fall in a dangerous river you flow with the current and you manage a directional swim to the shore that allows you to flow with the current.

  40. Davy on Mon, 4th Aug 2014 6:58 am 

    Art, you are still not selling me the alternative M17 meme. I have not been sold on either. I do not trust your European leaders and especially not the Russian. The Russians are master of deception. Of, course we know what is going on with MSM USA why elaborate. This is an anti-American site that specializes in bashing the official American position. I will tell you Art when I am sold. You are doing a good job with your arguments. I also believe you have a right to be energized on this subject considering what is at stake for Europe and the tragedy that has befallen your country. I fear this could be a winter of discontent in Europe as the holidays wind down, the markets begin a typical fall descent, and the Russian energy supply issue becomes a brick wall. This brick wall will be a choice by Europeans to choose survival or choose independence from Russia. BTW choosing survival will mean deflating the NATO alliance and opening another can of worms. Yet, Europe need only look to what happened with the UK gas strike a few years back and how close the country came to shutting down. This was a liquid fuel issue but gas will do the same thing by forcing industry to close with gas being directed to the public. People fail to realize it only takes a small shortage of any kind of energy to ripple through an economy and create systematic failures.

  41. JuanP on Mon, 4th Aug 2014 8:18 am 

    Mak, I’m mad with you. 😉 You made me miss the old days, you know, way back when, back in those days when the Guardian was worth reading. Darn you! Their coverage of the present Ukraine crisis is a shame and hard to swallow when I remember how much better they were just a decade ago. At least they published the Snowden crap.

  42. Arthur on Mon, 4th Aug 2014 8:29 am 

    “Art, the American GP want out of Europe period.”
    .
    I believe you that the General Public (?) wants to stay out of conflict. But there is little feedback between the American GP and the policy makers in Washington, they want to play empire on the Grand Chessboard.

    I am not so sure if the GP will ever elect that candidate you are talking about, because all candidates need to be kosher certified first before they even are allowed a place on the stage. Ron Paul managed indeed to reach the stage, against the will of the GOP leadership, but the GOP and media will ensure that he will be marginalized and ridiculed as much as possible. And this will continue to be the case, until a major financial crisis will arrive.

  43. Davy on Mon, 4th Aug 2014 8:39 am 

    Art, new paradigm in motion called descent. Out with the old in with the new. Right is wrong and wrong will be new right. It is a profound change that will shake our life to the core. You are hanging on to the past. Let go and quit fighting the current.

    Do you know the sound of thunder? Listen to the thunder!
    Wild Bill Hickok, Deadwood

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