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Russian Sanctions And The Negative Effect On Global Energy Security

Public Policy

After a series of headline-grabbing statements about the possibility of “switching” European consumers over to American gas, the US media hastened to announce the launch of Obama’s oil and gas offensive against Russia. In reality the EU is not currently prepared, neither technically nor in terms of price, to buy its energy resources from the US.  It would take at least ten years to adapt even the technically advanced German energy system to work with American gas supply. In a crisis, when it is particularly urgent to see a quick return on an investment, such projects are unrealistic.

Whether German industry is ready to pay more for gas from overseas just for the dubious pleasure of “punishing” someone is a big question. Unlike EU officials, the German government is not publicly calling into question either its long-term contracts with Russia or the future of the South Stream pipeline. On March 13, 2014, the chairman of the board of Gazprom, Alexei Miller, attended a meeting with the Vice-Chancellor and Minister of Economics and Energy of Germany Sigmar Gabriel. “Germany is Russia’s number one partner in Europe’s gas and energy market,” Miller stated. “Russian gas accounts for 40% of all German imports. And we’re also noting an upwards tick in the quantity of gas supplies coming from Russia.  Last year, shipments totaled more than 40 billion cubic meters and we’ve seen a 20% annual increase.” Looking at these statistics, it’s clear that all the talk about Atlantic solidarity is having zero effect on the German government’s rational decision making. “We don’t need conflict escalation”, said Sigmar Gabriel during an expert roundtable on energy policy later in March. “Russia met its obligations under the gas contracts even in the darkest years of the Cold War”.

Sigmar Gabriel knows what he’s talking about. For Europe to be able to fully utilize gas supplies from the US, it will be necessary to build expensive facilities to decompress and store the gas. Moreover, in order to incorporate the “American” gas into the existing local energy systems, the European countries would need to construct new pumping stations. The associated infrastructure will further add to the price for the end consumer. Neither the bosses of the German industry nor the responsible political leaders will support such policy.

So who’s behind the demands that Russia be punished?

Barack Obama continues to look outside of Europe for ways to pressure Moscow. It is no coincidence that the US president’s recent statements on energy policy coincided with his visit to Saudi Arabia. President Obama came to Riyadh to bring down prices in exchange for the development of Saudi Arabian facilities to extract and liquefy gas for delivery to Europe. It’s unlikely that even Charles Maurice de Talleyrand himself could have persuaded the Saudis to dump as many resources as possible onto the market in exchange for the nebulous promise of American help to obtain new gas facilities at some unspecified date in the future.

Qatar’s position needs to be kept in mind too. There are serious personal disagreements between the Saudis and the hypersensitive former emir of Qatar as no one in the Middle East needs a new competitor in the gas industry. Obama’s attempt to repeat Ronald Reagan’s oil trick in the Middle East and “shake down” global prices will face many obstacles. A hike in oil prices below $80 would expose yet another issue that was a real controversy during Obama’s reelection campaign, namely – what to do about Iraq. Even a 10% drop in oil prices would finish off the Iraqi economy, still reeling from the US invasion. And Israel is closely monitoring the White House’s attempts to initiate a rapprochement with Iran. If Uncle Sam tries to levy energy sanctions against Russia using his political positions in the Middle East, he will quickly find he has loaded a gun only to shoot himself in the foot.

The US Secretary of Energy, Ernest Moniz, an Obama appointee and shale enthusiast, has jumped right into the discussion of “punishing” Russia. He promised to consider new efforts to ship LNG from the USA to Europe. In this particular case his verbal intervention is unlikely to reflect the position of the CEOs of the oil majors. They know very well that the industry’s real break-even points are nowhere near where they were 30 years ago due to inflation and higher operation costs. Today one facility—Cheniere’s $10 billion Sabine Pass terminal in Cameron Parish—has the required approvals from the Energy Department and U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission.

In early March, the American economist Philip Verleger, who worked in the White House and the US Treasury in the 1970s, spoke as an expert on the issue of using energy as way to “punish” Russia. In the March 3, 2014 newsletter that he publishes for his clients, Verleger wrote that the US has a tool it can use to influence Russia – its Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). US Reserve currently contains almost 700 million barrels of oil, five million of which were unloaded onto the market during the Washington visit of the interim Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk. “It almost defies logic to think there isn’t a link,” noted John Kingston, the director of Platts’ news division. Tapping the SPR to manipulate the global market would be a highly extraordinary decision. The only way to exert any real pressure on global oil prices would be to open up at least 50% of the entire SPR and grant export licenses to anyone who wanted one. The American DoE is obviously not ready for such draconian measures.

Looking at the 2014 report written by the DoE analysts who are known for their almost religious faith in alternative energy, the minimum price for oil in 2015 will be $89.75/barr. The Russian national budget in 2014, which was saddled with expenses related to the Olympics, was drawn up based on an average price of $93 per barrel. Ergo, even $80-90 would hardly spell disaster for Moscow, much less $100 a barrel. In addition, the “nonmarket” pressure by the US could be balanced by the exporter nations. For example, the idea of “energy currency” has long been a hot topic within OPEC and the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF).

For the first time ever in the history of US-Russian relations we are seeing a public debate about a threat of economic sanctions that may have a long-range negative effect on global energy security. The Obama administration acts as if it is guided by a chapter out of an old Soviet textbook on political economy. At the moment, apparently, the sacred dogma of the free market, from Samuelson to Friedman, can be conveniently overlooked for the sake of punishing a sovereign nation. When the head of the most influential state in the world talks about manipulating market prices to punish recalcitrant players, what kind of “global free market” and fair play are we really talking about?

OilPrice.com



18 Comments on "Russian Sanctions And The Negative Effect On Global Energy Security"

  1. Arthur on Wed, 9th Apr 2014 12:58 pm 

    So who’s behind the demands that Russia be punished?

    Alex Jones would call them: ‘the Globalists’. I would say: ‘the Lobby’.

    In reality the EU is not currently prepared, neither technically nor in terms of price, to buy its energy resources from the US. It would take at least ten years to adapt even the technically advanced German energy system to work with American gas supply.

    True. On top of that, the US will never be able to replace Russian supply. On top of that, Russia itself will not be able to deliver current levels of supplies for decades to come.

    US libertarians got it right this morning when they observed that Germany is quietly preparing to leave the West:

    http://www.lewrockwell.com/2014/04/jack-d-douglas/germans-align-with-russians-and-chinese/

    The Germans make pro forma anti-Russian noises related to the Ukrainian standoff to appease the American globalists, but rest assured that behind the scenes quiet German-Russian diplomacy will ensure that no accidents will happen.

  2. rockman on Wed, 9th Apr 2014 2:18 pm 

    “President Obama came to Riyadh to bring down prices in exchange for the development of Saudi Arabian facilities to extract and liquefy gas for delivery to Europe.” Truly bizarre: you would think someone on the POTUS staff might have told him that not that only were the Saudis not LNG exporters but are in the process of developing LNG IMPORT TERMINALS. It also might have been handy for them to tell him that the KSA is not only a NG importer but the volume has more than doubled since 2000. Of course, this stupidity is consistent with calls for the US, a net NG importer, to ship some of our “excess NG” to the EU to punish Russia.

    SPR: “…five million of which were unloaded onto the market during the Washington visit of the interim Ukrainian Prime Minister. It almost defies logic to think there isn’t a link,” noted John Kingston” No…what defies logic is that this idiot doesn’t know the 5 million bbl SPR release was scheduled long before the Ukrainian situation even began to develop. Likewise: “The only way to exert any real pressure on global oil prices would be to open up at least 50% of the entire SPR and grant export licenses to anyone who wanted one. The American DoE is obviously not ready for such draconian measures.” The DOE isn’t the problem…the DOD is: the bulk of the SPR reserves are allocated to the DOD by CONGRESSIONAL LAW. The release of SPR oil is controlled by a very lengthy and detailed list of CONGRESSION LAWS which the POTUS cannot override by executive order. In reality it would take a full vote of both House of congress to accomplish any significant release from SPR.

    And one more ridiculous view IMHO: “At the moment, apparently, the sacred dogma of the free market…can be conveniently overlooked for the sake of punishing a sovereign nation.” No…what’s being overlooked is the obvious situation: the importers of oil/NG are contemplating on how to punish an exporter of oil/NG by flooding the market with commodities they are the net importer of. IOW regardless of the reason for the attempt how exactly does the US et al hurt pricing by flooding the market place with oil/NG that they don’t have?

  3. baptised on Wed, 9th Apr 2014 5:05 pm 

    Arthur That is the way I see it also. All the news in USA has become corrupt. Bugging all those leaders phones and our leaders saying “F— EU. Now telling China “We are concerned with them printing money” like we do. No one world wide likes to be bullied, it is a common feeling in all of us. Plus the elephant in the room- what does the USA have to offer EU. No behind our smoke screen their is a slow turning away.

  4. Northwest Resident on Wed, 9th Apr 2014 6:36 pm 

    I continue to believe that this whole Russia/Ukraine “crisis” is just a scripted act, complete with all the political and media sideshows that have sprung up around it. Here we are at the very twilight of the age of oil, and a dark brooding future surely awaiting just over the horizon. There are no doubt huge issues in play behind the scenes of this Russia/Ukraine crisis, but what the media reports to us is most definitely NOT what those issues are.

    If we just step back and look at the situation logically, we see a collection of countries that all together comprise what we think of as Western Europe. How much oil/gas energy do those countries have to power their future in a post-economic collapse world? Almost zero. Unless countries like Great Britian and Germany and France, etc… can develop some kind of energy security now, their future seems very dim indeed. In the end, they will be begging Russia for oil/gas, or going to war to try and take it.

    The more I think about it, the more it seems likely to me that THIS is what behind all the political role-playing and media hype.

    Problem is, going to war with Russia is suicide. There is no “solution” that isn’t a damned if you do and damned if you don’t dilemma.

    There is a very good chance that Western Europe is just truly screwed, and they know it, and America knows it, and Russia knows it. All this squawking and game-playing is just the squealing and bitching and crying that you’d expect any loser to bellow out as they slowly swirl down the tube and into oblivion.

    Just a perspective, nothing more.

  5. Arthur on Wed, 9th Apr 2014 9:11 pm 

    NWR, have a quick glance at this graph to see that Russia is just as dependent on the EU as the other way around:

    http://deepresource.files.wordpress.com/2014/03/russia_trade_partners_464gr.gif

    Russian-EU trade is more than 4 times that of Russia-China.

    The only party with interest in escalating the crisis is the US. A breach between the EU and Russia would increase dependency of the EU on the US and at the same time eliminate the EU as an economic competitor of the US. Everybody knows that and it is therefore unlikely to happen. But the US can always try of course. The aim is to generate as much conflict as possible and provoke a civil war in the Ukraine, tempting the Russians to intervene. It is exactly the same game plan played in 1939 over Poland. Encourage the Poles to start killing the Germans living in Poland, prompting the Germans to come to the aid of their countrymen and when they do, declare war in order to ‘stop the Germans’ c.q. ‘stop the Russians’. And once the war hysteria is created nobody blames the US government for an economic implosion, that’s coming anyway.

    Here BBC newsreel from 1939 about hundreds of thousands of German refugees from Poland to Germany, shortly before the start of the war:

    tinyurl . com/nflcwqr

    That’s what you never learn at school. The Americans had told the Poles that they could do what they wanted, since the US, UK and France would come to their aid anyway. That was not true, but the Poles believed it and started to persecute, prompting the Germans to ‘start WW2’.

    And now they are doing exactly the same thing. The alllies could not care less about the fate of the Ukraine, but these operette-Natzi nitwits from Lvov are just good enough to get a new war kicked-off by encouraging them to ‘bring the East and Crimea under control’ again.

  6. Northwest Resident on Wed, 9th Apr 2014 9:56 pm 

    Arthur — By March 1935, four years or so before your supposed “America started the war with Germany” catalyst in Poland, Hitler had already thoroughly trashed the Treaty of Versailles and his “built for offensive war” military in 1935 had 2,500 war planes and an army of 300,000 men. And then, Hitler announced that there would be compulsory military conscription in Nazi Germany and that the army would be increased to 550,000 men. This, along with the fact that he and his generals were already planning Panzer divisions and other purely offensive military tactics, all long before your date of 1939.

    Hitler was a madman hell bent on taking what he wanted LONG before 1939. As soon as Hitler took over leadership of the Nazi party, he started giving himself military titles and wearing military-like clothing. Hitler was obsessed with military adventure.

    It is amazing to me how you have managed to convince yourself — no doubt with “facts” obtained from other twisted and illogical rewrites of WWII history — that America started WWII. To me, that is insane. The facts are obvious — Hitler felt aggreived, the German people felt oppressed and agreed with Hitler, and their long practiced war-like tendencies lead Hitler and his supporters to build an ATTACK army for the sole purpose of conquest. And then Hitler looked for excuses to use his military in conquest, and he found those excuses.

    America started WWII — absurd.

  7. Arthur on Thu, 10th Apr 2014 12:16 am 

    By March 1935, four years or so before your supposed “America started the war with Germany” catalyst in Poland, Hitler had already thoroughly trashed the Treaty of Versailles

    Why shouldn’t they trash Versailles? The German todo list after 1933 concerned only those territories that were German and wanted to be part of Germany. Exactly like the Crimea wanted to go back to Russia last month. And I never said that America started the war with Germany, I said that they did everything they could to bring Germany into war with Poland, Britain and France.

    yamaguchy . com/library/cikkek/forrestal.html

    Played golf today with Joe Kennedy [Joseph P. Kennedy who was Roosevelt’s Ambassador to Great Britain in the years immediately before the war]. I asked him about his conversations with Roosevelt and Neville Chamberlain from 1938 on… Chamberlain, he says, stated that America and the world Jews had forced England into the war.

    Chamberlain and Hitler liked each other; Chamberlain knew he had nothing to fear from Germany. But Chamberlain avoided Roosevelt like the plague, because Chamberlain understood perfectly well what Roosevelt’s motives were: use Britain to destroy Germany, the country that had dared to stood up against what today is called the NWO, because he removed the Jews and their Bolshevism from power, an act Americans can only dream about and the Russians were only capable off, after they suffered tens of millions of deaths. It could be that the Americans will have to go through a similar process first as well.

    And then, Hitler announced that there would be compulsory military conscription in Nazi Germany and that the army would be increased to 550,000 men. This, along with the fact that he and his generals were already planning Panzer divisions and other purely offensive military tactics, all long before your date of 1939.

    Big deal. Troops incl reserves in 1933:

    France 4,500,000
    Poland 3,200,000
    Czechia 1,300,000
    Belgium 600,000
    Germany 100,000

    Germany’s armament was never excessive as compared to it’s potential enemies. Basically it was surrounded by enemies: Poland, France and Churchill-Britain and the US and USSR were smiling from the sidelines, because they sensed they could use this inner European conflict about who was to be number one to their own advantage. All they had to do was sick the British and French and Poles against the Germans. Chamberlain knew that. The dirty little secret about WW2 is that the destruction of Germany was already planned by the triumvirate Roosevelt-Churchill-Stalin before a single shot was fired. We now know that from the Finnish Mannerheim files:

    http://prokarelia.net/en/?x=artikkeli&article_id=667&author=10

    Hitler felt aggrieved, the German people felt oppressed and agreed with Hitler, and their long practiced war-like tendencies lead Hitler and his supporters to build an ATTACK army for the sole purpose of conquest.

    Attack WHAT, for Christ sake?!

    You can’t get it more damning than what the alllies admitted to themselves in their Nuremberg fake victors show trial:

    avalon . law . yale.edu/imt/jack37.asp

    MR. JUSTICE JACKSON. I really think that this trial, if it should get into an argument over the political and economic causes of this war, could do infinite harm, both in Europe, which I don’t know well, and in America, which I know fairly well. If we should have a prolonged controversy over whether Germany invaded Norway a few jumps ahead of a British invasion of Norway, or whether France in declaring war was the real aggressor, this trial can do infinite harm for those countries with the people of the United States. And the same is true of our Russian relationships. The Germans will certainly accuse all three of our European Allies of adopting policies which forced them to war. The reason I Say that is that captured documents which we have always made that claim-that Germany would be forced into war. They admit they were planning war, but the captured documents of the Foreign Office that I have examined all come down to the claim, “We have no way out; we must fight; we are encircled; we are being strangled to death.”

    Do you understand what this 2nd rate bozo from New York, Jackson [*], who was supposed to make a case against Germany on orders of his superiors in the White House was saying? That he had thoroughly searched through all the German archives, but that he was unable to find anything with which he could frame the Germans?! What do you mean ATTACK?!

    Not that it was a problem for these fine US, Soviet, French and English criminals to make a case. After all, they were in charge, weren’t they?! So the Soviet prosecutor Vyshinsky came up with a proposal to preempt all possible awkward situations. He produced a list of all things that nobody, incl. the German defense was allowed to discuss during the trial:

    1. USSR/Versailles relationship
    2. Ribbentrop-Molotov Pact
    3. Molotovs vist to Berlin as well as von Ribbentrop’s visits to Moscow
    4. Any issues regarding the political system of the USSR
    5. The Baltics Soviet republics
    6. Soviet-German agreements regarding exchange of German polulation from the Baltics
    7. Soviet foreign policy and more in detail, the straits and Soviet territorial claims
    8. The Balkans
    9. Soviet-Polish relations (West-Ukraine/Western Belo-Russia)

    In other words, leave all the potential points of defense out for the Germans.

    Next they tortured the Germans into holo-confessions and that was the end of it. Here is a righteous Jew, yes they do exist, who last weeks explained it all again, especially for MSM driven people like you:

    youtube . com/watch?v=CEHn-5Pd8Qc

    [*] Jackson was told (instructed) on 11 June 1945 in NYC about the 6 million figure by 3 Jewish lawyers Perlman, Robinson and Kohanski.

    Hitler was a madman

    He got his country up it’s feet again in a matter of a few years, not bad for a mad man. Roosevelt could only dream of such an accomplishment.

    Hitler was a madman hell bent on taking what he wanted LONG before 1939.

    Yep, all the German territories taken from Germany in Versailles. Big deal.

    Hitler was obsessed with military adventure.

    He wasn’t. The only two things he was obsessed with and repeated like a broken record in his speeches were:
    1) role back Versailles
    2) prevent ‘Jewish communism’ from taken over Germany, like had happened with Russia

    Nothing wrong with these objectives.

    Conclusion: there is not a iota of a difference in how countries like Iraq, Libya, Syria and now the Ukraine and yes, including Germany-1939, were treated by the US. The US is a vile Zionist run operation and a threat to the rest of the world and it has been since 1933 and it is time that this is going to stop. And now there is a power configuration in place to do the heavy lifting and put the operation out of business and let America return to it’s true isolationist constitutional character.

  8. Makati1 on Thu, 10th Apr 2014 12:45 am 

    Yes, I agree Arthur. The US and the Jewish bankers did start WW2 and maybe WW1 if we really knew the details. After all, wars are very profitable. Especially if you can work both sides.

    Why has the US been the war mongering nation ever since? Because WW2 was too profitable and peace meant a wind down of the war machine and the end of war consumption. After all, a washing machine that last 10 years is not as profitable as a bomb that is used once and then needs replaced the next day. Both earn the same profit but…

    Since WW2, there was the Korean War. the Vietnam War, the War on drugs, the many ‘police actions, all leading up to the Afghanistan War, the Iraq War, the Libya War, the current attack of Syria, and the Nazi invasion of the Ukraine. If the insane powers running the show believe they can survive it, there will be a nuclear WW3.

    If Texas had not been the oil giant it was, the US would still be a 3rd world nation because it would not have been able to power the West in WW2 and provide the profitable weapons and oil needed to win. In fact, WW2 may never have happened. The Petroleum age has been a curse on humanity.

  9. Davy, Hermann, MO on Thu, 10th Apr 2014 1:30 am 

    Maki sounding off his propaganda again. Maki, you just wish you could be part of a country as great as the USA. You are from insignificant countries that have no impact on the world hence your desire to pump up your feelings of inferiority and lack of greatness. I am sorry you are so lacking in your self-esteem. I feel sorry for you. If I can help let me know I can give advice. AND Makk, don’t tell me you are American. You are an American want-a-be.

  10. bandits on Thu, 10th Apr 2014 1:47 am 

    Arthur
    You have not the slightest clue as to what you are writing about. You need to read a damn site more but your prejudices of course would not allow it.
    I bet you are a holocaust denier.

    Hitler and the NAZI party never received more than 37% of the vote. The brown Shirts had every other party completely cowed. He invoked the “enabling act” in 1933 and the rule of law was completely ignored after that. He murdered leaders and followers of all parties especially the communists. During 1933 rights were stripped from German Jews, their businesses and property boycotted and confiscated, many concentration camps were created.

    He ALWAYS intended to invade and make war on the East. It was available for everyone to read in Mein Kamph, one of his quotes “If you tell a big enough lie and tell it frequently enough, it will be believed.” he lied like a pig in shit. Brainwashed the youth, created the SS from the Brown Shirts and Steel Helmets and began rearmament immediately, Navy, Air force and Army.

    You admire him for the economic recovery but the recovery base was very low and well on the way when he overthrew the government and judicial system.

    Read “The Coming of the Third Reich”
    “The Third Reich in Power”
    “The Third Reich at War”
    By Richard Evans
    Also “The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich by William Shirer.
    There are many books written about all his henchmen. It was a murderous regime well before his rise to “legitimate” power in 1933

  11. Northwest Resident on Thu, 10th Apr 2014 2:07 am 

    “Nuremberg fake victors show trial”

    Twisted. Distorted beyond all recognition. Denial of reality in its purest form.

  12. Makati1 on Thu, 10th Apr 2014 3:18 am 

    Davy, have you slipped off your meds again? As for being an American, I guess 14 generations living in North America around the Susquehanna River is American enough. I can prove it with a family tree showing all of my ancestors back to 1734 when the first member of my family settled there after leaving Austria. He was a sea captain and trader until he retired to the shores of the Susquehanna just east of the city of York, Pennsylvania.

    No, I’m not a ‘wannabee’. I’m as American as you can get without being a native. I’m just no longer blind to reality. Too bad I ruined your rant. LMAO!

  13. Arthur on Thu, 10th Apr 2014 10:21 am 

    I bet you are a holocaust denier.

    Gee, I hope not. That’s bad for your CV. Denying the hollowcause in the US-run-West is like denying the existence of Allah on the central square in Mecca. It is the new religion of the New World Order; should give you a clue about who runs the West these days. Of course the hollowcause did happen, the Jews said so themselves! In fact they did so 90 years before the fact! I mean, what more proof do you want.lol?

    http://tinyurl.com/nfz28m4

    Even more proof: here is Ben Gurion announcing the 6 million figure *before* Nuremberg even began. It was a foregone conclusion:

    youtube . com/watch?v=B2Ae8T0FmFg

    Hear him talk about a ‘New World Order of free nations’ (run by the Ben Gurions of this world). Ben Gurion btw was the one who ordered the contract killing of JFK, the last serious resistance Euro-America could come up with against the globalists: JFK. A few months before he was killed, JFK made his famous conspiracy speech:

    For we are opposed around the world by a monolithic and ruthless conspiracy that relies primarily on covert means for expanding its sphere of influence–on infiltration instead of invasion, on subversion instead of elections, on intimidation instead of free choice, on guerrillas by night instead of armies by day. It is a system which has conscripted vast human and material resources into the building of a tightly knit, highly efficient machine that combines military, diplomatic, intelligence, economic, scientific and political operations.

    Now, who do you think he is talking about? The National Rifle Organisation? The National Organization for Women? The Belgians? The International Boy-scouts Organization? The North-American Hockey League?

    Joseph Kennedy experienced first hand what happened when he was ambassador in London. All the clandestine messages between Roosevelt and Churchill, behind PM Chamberlain’s back, passed his desk. And at the same time Churchill had clandestine meetings with the Jewish Soviet ambassador Ivan Maisky and hence Stalin. London 1939-1940 was the focal point of the greatest most successful conspiracy this world has ever seen. And Roosevelt & Churchill were merely the ambitious front men of this conspiracy, the best politicians Jewish money can buy. And Joseph Kennedy and his clerk Tyler Kent, who did all the typing and encrypting stored copies in his briefcase, in order to warn Congress, a bit like Richard Snowden:

    [youtube FfKdCH0D_Xw]

    Unlike Snowden however, Kent was intercepted by the Churchill gang, see video.

    After the war, Joseph Kennedy briefed his son JFK, who made a last all-or-nothing effort to retake power from the Jews to the WASPs… and failed, in Dallas. That was the beginning of the end of Euro-America. The moon landing was the last truly great act and pinnacle of US power and it was all downhill from there, although Reagan and the demise of the USSR gave a short illusion of revival. Iraq-2003 was the last breaking point. Now the waiting is for who or what kills the dollar (and J-power) and then the geopolitical cards are going to be dealt anew.

    Most logical constellation after the crash: Paris-Berlin-Moscow + Euro-America, to balance the rising power of Asia, centered around China, in a multi-polar world.

  14. Davy, Hermann, MO on Thu, 10th Apr 2014 11:47 am 

    Art, sometimes you are brilliant and funny. You add a great deal to the discussion of the nuances behind current event both possible and probable. Yet, other times you get on your propaganda stump and preach off the wall history revisions to what is basic and simple history. You go off on a tangent like you have been too long in the big easy chair locked in your room reading far too many off-the-wall historical fiction. I hope the Art I have come to know and enjoy reading comes back to this discussion and the bizarre neurotic Art climbs back into his hole.

  15. GregT on Thu, 10th Apr 2014 8:22 pm 

    Davy,

    I also used to believe the history fed to us here in NA. Until I married a girl from Moscow. It took me the better part of 15 years to wrap my head around the truth. Sorry, but Arthur has done his homework.

    Oh, and my father was in central intelligence during the cold war, I have had many an argument with him over the years. Even he says now, that he was mistaken in believing what he did.

  16. Davey on Thu, 10th Apr 2014 9:30 pm 

    Greg, it is not that I discount everything Art says. He just goes too far with many historic events and conclusions. Tell me Greg, who can we realy believe anyway. Just because Art does his homework does not mean he is right all the time. He is reaching on the whole WWII and Jewish issues especially.

  17. GregT on Thu, 10th Apr 2014 10:05 pm 

    All I know for sure Davy, is the history lessons that I learned, are almost completely opposed to my ex-wife’s versions. She was brought up in Russia, and her story of history, doesn’t jive with ours. She is a highly educated woman, with a PHD, teaching history now in a university in BC. Heck, even her story of the cold war, is almost exactly the opposite of what I had been led to believe. We haven’t been told the truth. Something that should not be surprising.

    I’m not going into the entire WW2/ Jewish issue here, but I have read differing accounts of what actually took place, and why. Lets just say, not all Jews are Zionists, and not all Zionists are Jews.

    If you haven’t already done so, check out Henry Ford’s writings in the Dearborn Independent. A little hard to stomach because of what appears to be blatant antisemitism, but if you can get by the verbiage, you will see a very different perspective of the common themes of the times.

  18. Arthur on Fri, 11th Apr 2014 9:32 am 

    I also used to believe the history fed to us here in NA. Until I married a girl from Moscow.

    That’s what you get with guys with too much money and an internet connection. Maybe some day we can exchange tips how to combat Slavic matriarchat.lol

    Well the Ukraine girls really knock me out
    They leave the West behind
    And Moscow girls make me sing and shout…

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