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Page added on June 16, 2018
Russia, Saudi Arabia are getting increasingly chummy, and that has big implications for OPEC and oil prices
Saudi Arabia may have gotten blown out by Russia during its first match at the World Cup, but there seems to be no hard feelings between Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Vladimir Putin.
The two leaders met this past week as the Russian national soccer team clobbered Saudi Arabia 5-0 in Moscow. It appears both have agreed to cement the cornerstone of an already deepening energy and economic relationship, even as they look to alter a successful oil production deal that brought them together.
On Friday, Russia’s energy ministry said it has reached a general consensus with Saudi Arabia that its newfound relationship with the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) should be “institutionalized,” and be extended to monitor the market and take action if needed. OPEC will meet this upcoming Friday, and then with Russia and other non-OPEC members after that.
The chumminess of Russia and Saudi Arabia, however, is not unexpected. The relationship between two of world’s largest oil producers is being reinforced as OPEC is poised to grapple with several thorny issues. Chief among them is how to deal with the declines of supply from OPEC member Venezuela, and the effect of renewed sanctions on Iran by the United States.
Iran is being sanctioned by the U.S. after President Donald Trump withdrew from a deal between Iran and six other countries designed to end its nuclear program. Trump said the deal was not tough enough, and under the renewed sanctions, companies around the world in essence will have to stop dealing with Tehran if they want to deal with the world’s largest economy.
“This time more than most, [OPEC’s meeting] is almost more about geopolitics than it is about the market,” said Daniel Yergin, vice chairman of IHS Markit.
“Iranian exports are already down. One of the challenges they face is calibrating the impact of sanctions on Iran, which are already being felt in the market place, although they haven’t actually been imposed yet,” said Yergin. “There’s suddenly a disruption in Libya, and Venezuela keeps sinking.”
The U.S. is definitely the elephant in the room, with pressure also coming from Trump, who has tweeted twice, including this past week, about high oil prices.
“Of course, Trump has brought a new form of jawboning into play, but they’re hearing the same thing form the Indians who are very concerned about what high oil prices mean about growth and the economy, and next year’s election in India,” Yergin said.
Also playing out in the background are domestic political considerations, amid November’s hotly contested Congressional elections. Economic growth is a centerpiece of Republicans’ efforts to maintain an increasingly tenuous grasp of control on the House and Senate.
“This is one time when U.S. mid-term elections are going to figure into what OPEC does,” said Yergin.
“The message from Trump is he is not wanting high oil prices, either as a result of sanctions on Iran or heading into the November congressional election. These elections could be of such decisive importance,” he added.
‘Obfuscate and obscure’
When OPEC ministers meet, theyare expected to consider altering a production deal that has held back 1.8 million barrels a day from the market for the past 18 months.
Russia has pushed for returning a million barrels per day back into the market relatively quickly. However, Saudi Arabia would like to try a lower amount to prevent the price from dropping too much, analysts said.
“I think they do something like return 500,000 barrels a day, but the actual increase will be a lot more. I think they’ll try to obfuscate and obscure as much as they can, to try to prop up the price,” said John Kilduff of Again Capital.
Oil prices took a beating Friday amid concerns about U.S. trade actions, and are off by more than 10 percent from last month’s high. The production cuts have been successful, shrinking world supplies and sending prices high enough to the point where Brent crude popped above $80 in May.
Now that both Russia and Saudi Arabia are looking to return some barrels to the market, not all OPEC members agree. Iran, Venezuela and Iraq have all said the current production agreement should stay in place — mainly because they’re feeling the economic pinch of sanctions.
“You now have in OPEC two countries that have been the subject of international sanctions and for one country, Iran, those sanctions have been supported by two members of OPEC, the [United Arab Emirates] and Saudi,” said Helima Croft, global head of commodities strategy at RBC. “There are a whole host of divisions going into this meeting.”
There are also a complicated series of factors impacting the decision, and it’s not just about stabilizing the market. Already, Venezuela has lost about 700,000 barrels a day this year, and analysts expect U.S. sanctions could remove 500,000 Iranian barrels a day from the market by the end of the year, she said.
Croft said Iran could be a bigger factor in the market later in the year, after the sanctions snap back. “Will they restart their nuclear program? I think the market just thinks, ‘well the Iranians aren’t going to want to get in trouble,'” she said.
But at OPEC, they could ultimately be sidelined by Saudi Arabia, which has the backing of the UAE and Kuwait.
“I think Iran becomes a story post-meeting,” Croft said, suggesting that Iran, Venezuela and Iraq may withhold support for a production boost. “Then you have the Saudis acting independently,” she said.
The OPEC ministers meeting Friday will be followed by a meeting with Russia and other non OPEC producers. Ahead of that, they will be attending an OPEC summit Wednesday and Thursday, which includes global energy ministers as well as the CEOs of international companies like Total and BP, and U.S. producers Pioneer and Hess.
“It’s a weird dynamic. The Russians aren’t liking the U.S. getting up to 11 million barrels a day. They’ve foregone a lot of market share,”
OPEC announced in March that it would invite U.S. producers to the seminar to discuss shale production and technology, as the world’s largest economy continues to churn out massive amounts of crude. The U.S. has been pumping record amounts of oil week after week, with the latest weekly figures showing production of just under 11 million barrels a day.
U.S. output has surpassed Saudi Arabia, and its growing market share is another factor that makes production cuts difficult for OPEC and Russia.
“The Saudis really have a sense of obligation with Trump, after he ditched the Iran nuclear deal,” said Again’s Kilduff.
“It’s a weird dynamic. The Russians aren’t liking the U.S. getting up to 11 million barrels a day. They’ve foregone a lot of market share,” he added. “They could stick it to the U.S. and send prices lower to shake out some of our shale guys. They’ve got something up their sleeve.”
After talks with Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih in Moscow on Thursday, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said that both nations “in principle” supported a gradual increase in production.
“We in general support this … but specifics we will discuss with the ministers in a week,” Novak said. He noted one possibility would be to gradually raise output by 1.5 million barrels per day, starting July 1.
143 Comments on "Russia, Saudi Arabia are getting increasingly chummy, and that has big implications for OPEC and oil prices"
JuanP on Sun, 17th Jun 2018 12:57 pm
Delusional Davy “Juan, you are acting manic.”
If there is one thing I am not is manic, but I can be extremely efficient and my goal is to troll you as much as possible in the least amount of time with the least amount of effort on my part. I am not like you and I can’t waste my whole life posting shit here like you do. I think you are projecting again! LOL!
JuanP on Sun, 17th Jun 2018 1:00 pm
Delusional Davy “Juan, you are acting manic. You might want to self-reflect a little on your behavior. Just so you know I am not going to read multiple comments that are just emotional stalking and pricking. Offer up some comments with ideas and we can debate that. Why should I debate the fact you don’t like me. That is obvious dummy.”
I guess you simply don’t understand what I am doing, exceptionalist! I don’t care whether you read the comments or not, moron. God, you are stupid! And I know that you read all the comments even if you deny it because you are so insane you couldn’t stop yourself even if you wanted, and I am not sure that you want because masochism seems to be one of your many mental problems.
Delusional Davy “You might want to self-reflect a little on your behavior.”
ROFLMFAO again! That is rich coming from you, exceptionalist! God, you are so fucking fucked up it is really hard to believe that you are not committed. Only in the completely fucked up USA would they let a deranged lunatic like you loose! LOL!
Delusional Davy “Offer up some comments with ideas and we can debate that. ”
Why on Earth would I want to debate anything with an insane bully like you? I guess you really don’t understand what a low opinion we have of you even if we have explained it to you in a wide variety of ways. God, you are thick!
GregT on Sun, 17th Jun 2018 1:28 pm
“Empty links are like people who use big words but don’t know what they mean.”
The links that JuanP provided are not empty Davy. Whether you choose to read them or not is irrelevant. I personally did read them, are found them both interesting and informative.
Thank you for providing the links Juan.
Davy on Sun, 17th Jun 2018 2:00 pm
“The links that JuanP provided are not empty Davy. Whether you choose to read them or not is irrelevant. I personally did read them, are found them both interesting and informative.”
Juan, gave an empty link without title or content. No big deal but in general people who do this regularly are being intellectually weak and sometimes dishonest. They often are packaging an agenda and disguising the validity of it with multiple empty links. Neder does this constantly and so does 3rd world. You, greggie, and the weasel on the other hand don’t offer links or comments with topics much at all. You two just stalk, prick, and whine.
GregT on Sun, 17th Jun 2018 2:12 pm
“Juan, gave an empty link without title or content.”
From JuanP:
“On subject:”
https://www.rt.com/business/429968-russia-saudi-oil-deal/
The link that JuanP provided is not empty Davy.
Whether he wishes to post further comments on that link, or not, is his prerogative. You have absolutely no say, or control, over what other people think, say , or believe. The fact that you still can’t get that through your thick skull, after 5 long years of your constant daily delusional bullshit, proves beyond a shadow of a doubt that you are not playing with a full deck.
JuanP on Sun, 17th Jun 2018 2:14 pm
Delusional Davy “Juan, gave an empty link without title or content. No big deal but in general people who do this regularly are being intellectually weak and sometimes dishonest. They often are packaging an agenda and disguising the validity of it with multiple empty links. Neder does this constantly and so does 3rd world. You, greggie, and the weasel on the other hand don’t offer links or comments with topics much at all. You two just stalk, prick, and whine”
God, you are a retard! I posted links that were directly related to the article’s content, moron, and you are the only person in this forum that has a problem with them. As I pointed out before, you are the one with a problem, exceptionalist, not the links. You are just looking for excuses to insult, demean, and put down others because you are completely incapable of making a rational argument and debating the subject like a grown. This is nothing more than bullying on your part and essentially everyone here understands this except you, moron
Davy on Sun, 17th Jun 2018 2:46 pm
Sure it is greggie, it had no title and he put no content from the article in his comment. That is an empty link. Duh, you Butthole Columbia boys are slow.
JuanP on Sun, 17th Jun 2018 3:12 pm
Delusional Davy “Sure it is greggie, it had no title and he put no content from the article in his comment. That is an empty link. Duh, you Butthole Columbia boys are slow.”
More insults and abuse from the board’s bully!
Apparently, the exceptionalist has a problem with this link:
https://www.rt.com/business/429968-russia-saudi-oil-deal/
He seems to not be able to understand it for some reason. The link is pretty self explanatory. It says “www.rt.com”, which is the source, and it includes the words “russia-saudi-oil-deal”, but this is not enough for Davy, though nobody else in the forum seems to have any problem understanding or following the link. Does the link have a problem? No. Is it perfectly clear? Yes. Can you dollow it to read up more on the subject at hand? Yes. Is Davy grasping at straws? Yes. Is Davy inventing bullshit? Yes. Is Davy unreasonable? Yes. Is Davy stupid? If stupid is as stupid does, then a most resounding YES! Does anyone else agree with Davy? No, not a single person other than Davy has problems with the frigging link? Is Davy completely losing it and coming unhinged? Does Davy, who claims to be a father of three, have nothing better to do on Father’s Day than complain about non existing issues? Apparently. Is that pathetic? What do you think?
JuanP on Sun, 17th Jun 2018 3:13 pm
I pity your children, Davy! It must be horribly sad for them to have a father like you!
JuanP on Sun, 17th Jun 2018 3:24 pm
Three more months, exceptionalist! If I enjoy them as much as I have enjoyed the first three days, I am in for a blast of a Summer! LOL!
GregT on Sun, 17th Jun 2018 3:42 pm
This would be an example of an empty link Davy:
http://www.davy-is-an-idiot.com
MASTERMIND on Sun, 17th Jun 2018 3:53 pm
Juanp
When you attack a father on father’s day..You humiliate yourself..
GregT on Sun, 17th Jun 2018 3:59 pm
There is a huge difference between a father MM, and a sperm donor.
JuanP on Sun, 17th Jun 2018 4:06 pm
Nanomind “Juanp
When you attack a father on father’s day..You humiliate yourself..”
If you say so, Imaginary Neuron. I don’t know why I don’t feel humiliated then. Lack of humility? LOL!
I am assuming that you meant to write “JuanP, When you attack a father on Father’s Day you humiliate yourself.” but you couldn’t because you are a functionally illiterate moron! LOL
Davy on Sun, 17th Jun 2018 4:51 pm
Juan, we are lucky you had your little nuts cut so there are no more bad seeds like you running around. We can celebrate the Juan is not a father day. The last thing this world needs is more spoiled brats from South America being playboys in Miami.
MASTERMIND on Sun, 17th Jun 2018 5:01 pm
Davy
DAAAAAMMMNNN!! That was brutal AF!
LMFAO!!
MASTERMIND on Sun, 17th Jun 2018 5:03 pm
Melania calls for end to Trump’s separation policy
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-44515123?ocid=socialflow_twitter
Cloggie on Sun, 17th Jun 2018 5:20 pm
Melanie is so right. Invader families should be kicked back over the border in one piece.
Meanwhile in the UK:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZM1ZCnliNB4
This is not a private gall with an attitude but a former media personality:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katie_Hopkins
MASTERMIND on Sun, 17th Jun 2018 5:38 pm
Clogg
Invader families?
Common symptoms for paranoid schizophrenia include paranoid delusions (believing everyone is out to cause the sufferer harm).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paranoid_schizophrenia
Boat on Sun, 17th Jun 2018 5:57 pm
Clog
Invader families is right. It’s never the kids fault. Take them kids back home and pick up a gun. Fight for yours, at home. Teach those kids to fight the criminal. Not become one.
GregT on Sun, 17th Jun 2018 6:01 pm
“The last thing this world needs is more spoiled brats from South America being playboys in Miami.”
The last thing this world needs is more children. WTF were you thinking Davy, knocking the Italian girl up when you were in your 50s?
MASTERMIND on Sun, 17th Jun 2018 6:07 pm
Boat
Stop encouraging cloggs mental illness..He is already scared of everything..You are going to get him all worked up in a tizzy..And illegal immigration has declined 80 percent from mexico since 2000..within ten years there wont be any more..Its a fake issue meant to scaremonger old and ignorant right wingers. more Mexicans are leaving America than coming in..
Source: Border Patrol
https://www.scribd.com/document/375672329/CBP-Border-Security-Report-Fiscal-Year-2017
More Mexicans are leaving the US than coming here–and it’s not because of deportation
http://www.latimes.com/projects/la-me-a-dream-displaced-life-back-home/
Davy on Sun, 17th Jun 2018 6:09 pm
I would include you in that list grehggie. The millionaire Butthole Columbia boy lives the life of leisure. The doctor wife brings home the bacon. Grehggie spends his day stalking and pricking Americans so he can feel something. Lol, no wonder you and playboy are so tight.
MASTERMIND on Sun, 17th Jun 2018 6:09 pm
I have seen a massive spike in fascism and ultranationalism on this site. As good jobs and resources get tighter, people become pitted against each other and fall prey to hate, fear and malice. If fascism is capitalism in decay, we are in decay..
GregT on Sun, 17th Jun 2018 6:22 pm
“The last thing this world needs is more spoiled brats from South America being playboys in Miami.”
The last thing this world needs is more children Davy.
Was your first litter of offspring not enough for you?
JuanP on Sun, 17th Jun 2018 6:28 pm
Delusional Davy “Juan, we are lucky you had your little nuts cut so there are no more bad seeds like you running around. We can celebrate the Juan is not a father day. The last thing this world needs is more spoiled brats from South America being playboys in Miami”
I didn’t get my nuts cut, ignorant fucktard, I had a Vasectomy, something you claimed you had, too, though I admit I’ve always thought that was a lie. Now, I know it was a lie because you wouldn’t say that if you had. Only an ignorant American moron like you wouldn’t know the difference between a Vasectomy and a castration. By the way, absolutely no regrets here. I am very proud that I had a Vasectomy and no children; I think it is the smartest thing a man in today’s world can do. Now, if I was a mentally ill person like you and had three kids like you did then I think I would regret my choices. LOL!
JuanP on Sun, 17th Jun 2018 6:34 pm
And, Davy, why do you resent my life so much? If you were happy with your life you wouldn’t resent that I enjoy mine, or that Greg enjoys his, the way you do.
I just got back from teaching a free yoga class for my neighbors and their friends and families at my condo; something I will be doing twice a week for the next three months. I had 23 students who loved it. Did you do anything for others today, even something for your children? Or is it all I, me, mine, myself with you?
Makati1 on Sun, 17th Jun 2018 6:46 pm
As usual, while I was gone, Davy chimed in with his usual bullshit, third grade putdowns and other meaningless posts.
JuanP on Sun, 17th Jun 2018 6:47 pm
Delusional Davy “I would include you in that list grehggie. The millionaire Butthole Columbia boy lives the life of leisure. The doctor wife brings home the bacon. Grehggie spends his day stalking and pricking Americans so he can feel something. Lol, no wonder you and playboy are so tight.”
Of course you would! You are a hateful, resentful, spiteful, indecent, immoral, repulsive human being. There is not one decent cell in your body. Greg not only has a loving wife, something you have repeatedly failed at because what woman would put up with an arsehole like you for long, but, on top of everything else she is a doctor, probably the best possible thing a person could be. His wife is such a good person that she has dedicated to help others all her life and made a career of it! How could a loser like you not envy that? All you have are three kids who don’t even call you for Father’s Day, including a daughter that lives in another country and doesn’t want to have anything to do with you because she’s figured you out. That, to me, is the definition of a complete loser.
JuanP on Sun, 17th Jun 2018 6:49 pm
Welcome back, Mak! Yeah, you didn’t miss anything; the exceptionalist didn’t even take a break to visit his kids on Father’s Day! He is truly pathetic!
GregT on Sun, 17th Jun 2018 7:47 pm
“the exceptionalist didn’t even take a break to visit his kids on Father’s Day! He is truly pathetic!”
He doesn’t call them his kids Juan, he refers to them as his offspring, and when they do come over for a visit, according to Davy, they camp out in the barn. Davy is even proud when his offspring tell their teachers how much they like camping out when they visit their “dad”.
I know, you just can’t make this shit up. LOL
Davy on Sun, 17th Jun 2018 7:52 pm
boy, you guys are now attacking my family. You must be hard up. This is something greggie has done before and I would expect this out of no morals juan also.
GregT on Sun, 17th Jun 2018 7:57 pm
I’m sure that your Italian girlfriend and her sons are great people Davy, you on the other hand, not so much.
Davy on Sun, 17th Jun 2018 8:03 pm
grehggie, you like attacking family because you could give a shit about family. For you it is all about the ends and the means justifies this poor behavior. This is why I find you such a low life because this poor behavior permeates all your actions. What is so dispicable is the respect thing that accompanies this poor behavior. For some reason you think you deserve respect. You and juan belong together. Two really shitty characters.
MASTERMIND on Sun, 17th Jun 2018 8:08 pm
Government ‘could collapse’ over Brexit deal
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-44511969
JuanP on Sun, 17th Jun 2018 8:22 pm
Delusional Davy “grehggie, you like attacking family because you could give a shit about family. For you it is all about the ends and the means justifies this poor behavior. This is why I find you such a low life because this poor behavior permeates all your actions. What is so dispicable is the respect thing that accompanies this poor behavior. For some reason you think you deserve respect. You and juan belong together. Two really shitty characters.”
Greg is not attacking your family, retard, he is attacking you. You have a problem understanding the difference? Why would we attack your family, exceptionalist? I’ve never met any of them, but I feel very sorry for them because it really has to suck to be related to you, particularly, to have you as a father. My heart goes out to your daughter and the twins. God only knows how much you make them suffer!
GregT on Sun, 17th Jun 2018 8:24 pm
Arranged marriages and offspring with girls that are young enough to be your grand daughter, your ‘children’ living in a house that you bought for them another part of the state, and camping out in dad’s barn when they come over for a visit, may all seem perfectly normal for a .0001%er like yourself Davy, but I can assure you, for the other 99.999% of the population, there is nothing normal about any of that at all.
JuanP on Sun, 17th Jun 2018 8:25 pm
Delusional Davy “boy, you guys are now attacking my family. You must be hard up. This is something greggie has done before and I would expect this ”
Nobody ever attacked your family. We obviously all feel sorry for them. Are you developing reading comprehension problems on top of everything else? Your whining about the link today was batshit crazy, too! You are losing it, exceptionalist!
Davy on Sun, 17th Jun 2018 8:26 pm
Come on greggie, you are just making shit up. You like attacking family and that is about as low as it gets.
Davy on Sun, 17th Jun 2018 8:28 pm
Juan, you can apologize all you like but you and grehgiee like attack family because both of you have very poor characters.
MASTERMIND on Sun, 17th Jun 2018 8:29 pm
Davy
Bingo! Greg is an authoritarian..He is one of those people who has a hair cut you can set your watch to..And he is one of those people who always comments on his local news FB posts..
In my day!
If you want to live in this house!
Oh I bet you think (some irrational generalization)
Davy on Sun, 17th Jun 2018 8:30 pm
both you and grehggie are spoiled brats living on ill gotten gains and acting like you are special or something. What is special about stupid people with money?
Makati1 on Sun, 17th Jun 2018 8:34 pm
Mm chimes in with his usual bullshit, third grade putdowns and other meaningless posts.
JuanP on Sun, 17th Jun 2018 8:34 pm
Delusional Davy “Come on greggie, you are just making shit up. You like attacking family and that is about as low as it gets.”
You can repeat the same lies forever but they will remain lies. Greg and I NEVER attacked your family, lunatic!
JuanP on Sun, 17th Jun 2018 8:38 pm
Delusional Davy “Juan, you can apologize all you like but you and grehgiee like attack family because both of you have very poor characters.”
You sound like a broken record, lunatic. I never attacked your family, I attacked you! And I never apologized to you because I have nothing to apologize for! You’ve lost your last marble, Davy! Are you going to blame us because your family doesn’t love you, too? They don’t love you because you are unlovable, and it is 100% your fault!
JuanP on Sun, 17th Jun 2018 8:42 pm
Delusional Davy “both you and grehggie are spoiled brats living on ill gotten gains and acting like you are special or something. What is special about stupid people with money?”
More bullshit from the board’s lunatic! Greg and I are not special, Davy, we appear to be more normal than you are. The one that is special here is you, SPECIALLY FUCKED UP! LOL!
Davy on Sun, 17th Jun 2018 8:42 pm
juan, you both did attacked my family now and you have done it many times in the past. This is what losers do. You both are losers
GregT on Sun, 17th Jun 2018 8:43 pm
“Come on greggie, you are just making shit up.”
Which part did I make up Davy? All of that info came from you.
Davy on Sun, 17th Jun 2018 8:44 pm
juan, you and grehggie are spoiled rich kids each living the rich asshole life. I laugh when I read your comments about social justice. More loser behavior
Davy on Sun, 17th Jun 2018 8:45 pm
sure grehgie, just more of your poor behavior of lies and attacking family and on a day when we maybe should care about family. loser