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Page added on March 27, 2018
Putin Finally Went Too Far
For years now, Putin’s calculation has been that the West is strong but lacking in unity and will, allowing a scrappy Russia willing to bend and break the rules of the international order to assert its place as a global player. But the success of this gambit hinged on his capacity to assess what the West would tolerate. By exceeding those limits, he may have delivered a triple blow to himself.
The expulsions are certain to deliver a serious, if not mortal blow to Russia’s intelligence networks. Putin has lavished resources and political capital on his covert foreign operations, which are now as pervasive and aggressive as they were at the height of the Cold War. His spook army is also a multi-headed hydra, featuring three main agencies: the Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), military intelligence (GRU), and the newcomers, the political policemen-turned-spooks of the Federal Security Service (FSB).
The more than 120 expelled individuals, all presumed to be intelligence officers working under diplomatic cover, represent only a fraction of Russia’s intelligence apparatus. In the Czech Republic, for example, the security service has claimed that as many as 50 Russians working in the embassy in Prague are actually spies. But, mindful that their much smaller embassy in Moscow can only sustain a few retaliatory expulsions, the Czechs expelled just three Russians.
The expulsions also shift the geopolitical landscape. In previous incidents of Russian mischief, Moscow has only had to deal with one country at a time. When its agents poisoned defector Alexander Litvinenko in London in 2006, for example, Britain received little real support from its allies when it pushed back against Russia. When assassins killed Chechen activists in Istanbul, no one rushed to help the Turks. When Russian commandos kidnapped Estonian security officer Eston Kohver in 2014, Tallinn had to cut its own deal with Moscow to get him back. Each time, allies offered little more than sympathy, and Putin presumably assumed this would again be the case with Skripal.
This time, despite the Trump administration’s often-tense relations with Europe and the fraught negotiations over Britain’s divorce from the European Union, the West has delivered an unprecedented collective message. Even the horrific shooting down of Malaysian Airlines flight 17 over southeast Ukraine by Russian proxies using a Russian missile failed to generate a similar reaction. While outright invasions such as the seizure of Crimea have led to sanctions, this is the first time ever there has been such an extensive and international response to a covert operation.
Perhaps most importantly, these expulsions challenge any easy assumptions in Moscow that Russian officials have the measure of the West. I was in Moscow in the immediate aftermath of the Skripal attack. Britain’s initial response, while decried by the Russian authorities as an act of “Russophobia,” did not seem to faze people I spoke to connected with the foreign ministry. They all seemed certain that that initial expulsion would be the end of it. The idea that 17 EU countries, as well as Albania, Australia, Canada, Macedonia, Norway, and Ukraine, would end up expelling suspected agents seemed implausible. That America would also kick out another 60? Unthinkable.
One of Putin’s greatest assets has been his capacity to break the rules of international behavior, as Western countries try and preserve them. As a result, he has been able to game out likely responses, staying clear of red lines and exploiting opportunities that arise. That does not mean he and his advisors don’t get things wrong (like the time Russia moved into the Donbas in Ukraine and expected Kiev to quickly capitulate). But they believed they understood the West, and that ultimately Western countries would not act decisively in support of each other. This time, he miscalculated.
In the near term, the Kremlin will respond with its usual mix of malice and bluster. There will be aggrieved denunciations, reciprocal expulsions, maybe even escalation, in the form of sanctions against Western media and cultural organizations (Moscow has already closed down the British Council’s operation in Russia), the suspension of cooperation agreements, and perhaps even pressure on other fronts such as Syria, Libya and the Balkans. Ultimately, though, Russia needs the West more than the West needs Russia. There are likely to be some hurried and anxious recalculations in Moscow as Putin and company realize how badly they blundered.
The Kremlin has relied on its own will and the West’s divisions to play a weak hand well. But maybe it played one card too many.
100 Comments on "Putin Finally Went Too Far"
Cloggie on Tue, 27th Mar 2018 1:21 pm
Not a shredd of proof.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Atlantic
Editor-in-chief:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeffrey_Goldberg
No further questions your honor.
Anonymouse1 on Tue, 27th Mar 2018 1:31 pm
One of yours then cloggraham. A fellow traveller.
No further questions, clogg-berg.
Cloggie on Tue, 27th Mar 2018 1:44 pm
One of yours then cloggraham. A fellow traveller.
No further questions, clogg-berg.
I must be a self-hating jew then, who happens to have a job as a judge.
/facepalm
Cloggie on Tue, 27th Mar 2018 2:02 pm
https://youtu.be/bQBEk3bd0ZM
Here (((Jeffrey Goldberg))) together with professional Putin hater (((Masha Gessen)))….
https://goo.gl/images/Yi41zr
…God are they ugly. “Gods chosen people”.rofl The Good Lawd has his way with humor, that’s for sure!
They will never forgive Vladimir the Great that Russia escaped from their (((NWO))) after 2000. Now these fanatics are trying to topple Putin, or at least organize a new Cold War. Or worse.
Austria refused to follow anti-Russian sanctions. Now the Italian Right, that will likely form the new government, has also critisized the hysteria, originating from Britain:
https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2018/03/26/world/europe/26reuters-britain-russia-expulsions-italy.html
Corbyn is also lukewarm about more sanctions:
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/mar/20/corbyn-i-would-still-do-business-with-putin-despite-skripal-attack
Cloggie on Tue, 27th Mar 2018 2:18 pm
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/we-still-dont-know-who-will-lead-italy-but-one-clear-winner-is-the-kremlin/2018/03/22/b1ffae90-2258-11e8-946c-9420060cb7bd_story.html
“We still don’t know who will lead Italy. But one clear winner is the Kremlin.”
ROFL
Cloggie on Tue, 27th Mar 2018 3:24 pm
https://russia-insider.com/en/paul-craig-roberts-integrity-has-vanished-west/ri22902
“Paul Craig Roberts: Integrity Has Vanished From The West”
“The crazed US senator from Arizona called the person with the largest majority vote of our time “a dictator.” Yet a real blood-soaked dictator from Saudi Arabia is feted at the White House and fawned over by the president of the United States.”
PCR goes full alt-right:
“Russia is a nation, unlike the mongrel Western countries”
Hear, hear. Did you hear that joe?
“Think about the alleged poisoning of Skripal by Russia. What can this be other than an orchestrated effort to demonize the president of Russia?”
Of course it is. Even our resident millimind/apneman admits it is a false flag, but he loves it because, in his own words: “it works” (just like holohoax, JFK, Tonkin, Liberty, 9/11, MH17, Euro-Maidan, etc., etc)
The old liberal order and the West is melting away and that’s ok. We will have to go through a period of unprecedented chaos and (civil) conflict.
Davy on Tue, 27th Mar 2018 3:55 pm
Nedernazi, you have turned rabid. Maybe you should come out of your Dutch bungalow and get some fresh air. Get off these forums before you completely lose your marbles. The scale of these events are too big for your mind. You are about to explode.
Cloggie on Tue, 27th Mar 2018 4:04 pm
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5549753/China-warns-Britain-abandon-confrontation-Cold-War-era-thinking.html
China sides with Putin, warns West not to escalate.
http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/russland-deutsche-politiker-warnen-vor-boykott-der-fussball-wm-a-1200151.html
German politicians warn against anti-Russian soccer world-cup boycott. Let Britain stay away all on its own.
http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/fall-skripal-guenter-verheugen-nimmt-russland-in-schutz-a-1200025.html
German Former EU-commissioner defends Russia. “Where is the proof?”
http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/fall-skripal-guenter-verheugen-nimmt-russland-in-schutz-a-1200025.html
Populist AfD on course to become 2nd party in Germany.
Cloggie on Tue, 27th Mar 2018 4:09 pm
“Nedernazi, you have turned rabid. Maybe you should come out of your Dutch bungalow and get some fresh air. Get off these forums before you completely lose your marbles. The scale of these events are too big for your mind. You are about to explode.”
You have no idea how upbeat I am about geopolitical developments. Brexit, Trump, Putin, AfD, Macron is not too bad either, Paris-Accords, Italy, Austria, Poland, Hungary, Turkey moving away from Europe, EU economic situation… EVERYTHING IS GOING RIGHT.
JuanP on Tue, 27th Mar 2018 4:13 pm
What a load of crap! This article is nothing but bullshit! I think this latest false flag operation by the USA and its minions will greatly benefit President Putin, Russia, and Russians, just like all the previous ones. Russia needs to turn its back on the West, particularly the USA, and become fully independent and self sufficient. These incidents motivate and enable the Russian government to take the necessary measures to achieve that goal. Russia is more united, stronger, and self sufficient now than it has been in modern history. The more distance between Russia and the West the better off Russians will be as the Western capitalist system continues to collapse.
Long live Russia! Long live President Putin! Long live the free world! I am enjoying witnessing the collapse of the empire; I am constantly wondering what stupid shit they will try next. Collapse is more fun than I thought! LOL!
JuanP on Tue, 27th Mar 2018 4:16 pm
Cloggie “You have no idea how upbeat I am about geopolitical developments.” I think I do because I feel the same way!
Theedrich on Tue, 27th Mar 2018 4:50 pm
Another wardrum-beating piece about Putin. Yawn. The only problem is that the U.K. has no proof of provenance of the poison in the Skripal case. No matter. It worked when the puppet intelligence agencies “assessed” that Saddam Hussein had WMDs as an excuse to unleash war against Iraq and regime-change the rest of MENA. So we know that the “assessment” of Putin as Darth Vader will work on the mushrooms again. It makes for a great distraction. Yes, Rule Britannia! (And U.S. with its Euro-vassals, too.)
Perhaps the Pentagon needs to lose a ship or too.
Plantagenet on Tue, 27th Mar 2018 6:04 pm
Since the assassins who did the attack in the UK used a nerve agent developed by the Russians and only used by Russia, and since the victims were Russian double agents who spied on Russia for the UK, its not unreasonable to suspect that Russia was involved in the attack.
Cheers!
Anonymouse1 on Tue, 27th Mar 2018 6:26 pm
Exactly Thee. The brits have not provided one iota of evidence that Russia(aka ‘Putin’) did anything of the sort. The worrying thing in all this is, is how these uS instigated false flags are becoming ever more brazen as time goes on. One has to wonder where they are ultimately going with all these false flags. Will they just keep upping the ante until they decide they can nuke Moscow and Beijing with impunity based on [whatever] rationale they fabricate? In my country, the media do not even bother to say ‘alleged’ nerve gas attack. The charge, is guilty, and the matter is reported as if the event(s) are proven fact. Full stop. Nor, have I observed any of canada’s media muppets or establishment talking heads, ever once suggest that Russia could be innocent of the charges leveled, even as a possibility. Canada, predictably, jumps to it masters orders and expelled four Russian diplomats the other day. This being jokingly referred to as, ‘solidarity’. I guess solidarity matters when it comes to war and fear’n policy.
So much for the ‘liberal’ true-dough regime. That idea that guy is a ‘liberal'(anything) is as fake news as fake news can be. He is a glib, and false as the muppet Obama was in the uS. Embarrassing time to be a citizen here in the free-world order, whether you are a brit, a canuck, australian etc, hardly matters. The only thing on their ‘agenda’ these days, seems to be ‘get Putin’, or possibly start a war or two if they that fails.
makati1 on Tue, 27th Mar 2018 6:27 pm
“What a load of crap! This article is nothing but bullshit. … I am enjoying witnessing the collapse of the empire; I am constantly wondering what stupid shit they will try next.”
Totally agree JuanP. The best show on earth.
BTW guys/gals, I’M BACK! LOL
Boat on Tue, 27th Mar 2018 6:32 pm
JuanP
Relax dude, Putin is doing exactly what you want, turning his back from the West. He could do it with a little less fanfare though. As the world kicks Russia out why would anyone care. They are fine on their own.
makati1 on Tue, 27th Mar 2018 7:06 pm
A rational comment, Boat.
The Europeans care, even if it seems like they are commuting suicide by stupidity. If Russia turns off the energy spigot, the Eu goes down the drain. Russia will survive. The West will not. WW2 proved that Russia can survive most everything, except, possibly nukes. But then…
JuanP on Tue, 27th Mar 2018 7:08 pm
Boat, The USA and its minions are not the world, no matter what small minded Americans think. LOL!
JuanP on Tue, 27th Mar 2018 7:09 pm
Welcome back, Mak!
JuanP on Tue, 27th Mar 2018 7:14 pm
That is precisely the point, Plant! Why on Earth would Putin do this now? That spy was completely worthless to Russia dead or alive! He was a washout! Why would Russia do this before the World Cup? It makes no sense!
Boat on Tue, 27th Mar 2018 7:26 pm
JuanP
You and your type of minions make the US an oversized talking point. The US is just one of many countries in a large world.
Not only that but our companies have to take on entire countries when competing for business.
JuanP on Tue, 27th Mar 2018 7:28 pm
And, Plant, the supposed “nerve agent” used according to the lying UK government was developed by the USSR, not Russia, and had been in the possession of several former soviet republics, including Ukraine. The chemical formula for this nerve agent was published in 2008 in a book that you can buy at Amazon.com and the scientist who developed this nerve agent moved to the USA many years ago. Are you telling me that the US, UK, and several other governments didn’t make any of this nerve agent to experiment with it and try to develop antidotes for it? Yeah, right! I have absolutely no doubt that the US government has access to this nerve agent. To believe otherwise is to be in denial. Only someone who doesn’t want to see this can’t see it. This is quite obviously a false flag operation perpetrated by Russia’s enemies to try and sabotage the World Cup.
I wish Russia the greatest success as World Cup host. Go Russia! Long live Putin! Screw the land of the fees and the home of the slaves!
Boat on Tue, 27th Mar 2018 7:29 pm
Hey mak, glad you’re alive and kicking. Tell us your moving stories.
JuanP on Tue, 27th Mar 2018 7:34 pm
Boat, The USA is not just one of many countries in a large world. It is the country that invades, attacks, and destroys other countries more than all the other countries of the world combined and it is the country that tortures, mureders, and bombs more people than any other country in the world. That is why most people in the world think every single day “YANKEES GO HOME!”. The people of the world just want the USA to stop screwing them, that’s all!
Marti on Tue, 27th Mar 2018 7:53 pm
sdef
JuanP on Tue, 27th Mar 2018 7:55 pm
Russia will survive this! LOL! Will the USA survive its collapse? I don’t think so!
https://www.rt.com/op-ed/422502-west-russia-diplomats-skripal/
JuanP on Tue, 27th Mar 2018 8:00 pm
The UK has provided no proof to back up its lies!
https://sputniknews.com/europe/201803281062968121-uk-no-proof-ambassadors/
Marti on Tue, 27th Mar 2018 8:04 pm
What a crock of shite! So “Russia was willing to bend and break the rules of the international order to assert its place as a global player”?? Russia did not break any laws unlike the US who has invaded Syria, killed Syrians and has not even declared war; a pure act of naked aggression. Russia did not appease the US and it is now paying the consequences with yet another smear campaign. According to the writer, the assassination was Putin’s gambit. A gambit is the sacrificing of a chess piece in order to gain strategic advantage. So what strategic advantage would Putin gain by assassinating a traitor after 12 years of roaming free? The more one thinks about it, the less likely that it was Russia and the more likely a false flag operation.
Cloggie on Tue, 27th Mar 2018 8:06 pm
Ah mak is back!
I hope mak is settled and apparently and most importantly his internet connection seems to work.
The exceptionalist and millimind just got five years older.lol
makati1 on Tue, 27th Mar 2018 8:30 pm
Cloggie, not only is my internet connection secure, it is even better and faster than in the city. Plus, we have gone to two different suppliers to guarantee the connection. My business partner needs them to consult and design. And the monthly cost is less than $50 US or About P2,400/mo. I spend that much on wine.
Yep! I bet some here hoped I would not be back. Too bad guys! I enjoy debates with narrow-minded, brainwashed, miss-educated underachievers like those you mentioned Cloggie. I also choose to ignore them occasionally. They are so boring and predictable. lol
Plantagenet on Tue, 27th Mar 2018 8:35 pm
@JuanP.
You are right—It doesn’t appear that there is any clear or direct evidence linking Russia to the nerve agent attack on the Skripals in Britain.
The evidence the Brits are using to link the attack to Russia appears to be indirect and circumstantial, i.e. (1) the type of nerve agent used is one that the Russians are known to have developed and stockpiled. And (2) Russia’s prior use of radioactive Polonium in an assassination of a Russian in Britain involves a similar modus operandi to this case.
Cheers!
MASTERMIND on Tue, 27th Mar 2018 8:39 pm
Is the World Sleepwalking Into The Next Oil Crisis?
https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2018/03/23/is-the-world-sleepwalking-into-an-oil-crisis/#3dd6e74344cf
MASTERMIND on Tue, 27th Mar 2018 8:51 pm
Vlad the bad went to far! He is just one more false flag away from being hit with a nuclear first strike! And it looks like the Donald is finally starting to play ball after he kicked out those diplomats the other day! Sorry Putin! Live free or die! Bitch!
MASTERMIND on Tue, 27th Mar 2018 8:53 pm
The wood has been slowly dried for some major future event, and a false flag event will be like a lit match on the kindling. The media will pick it up and run with it full-throttle, and people will be herded by fear toward the war door.
Steve on Tue, 27th Mar 2018 10:47 pm
https://youtu.be/CCFs0PtzeVE from the Saker.
http://thesaker.is/
DerHundistLos on Wed, 28th Mar 2018 2:37 am
Trump now claims to have family members in Scotland as he has demonstrated in the attached:
http://www.fairfaxunderground.com/forum/file.php?40,file=15186,filename=FatBastard.jpg
DerHundistLos on Wed, 28th Mar 2018 2:45 am
I’m so relieved to know that the usual suspects are privy to better information than MI6 and the NSA.
If the facts fail to conform to a person’s pre-conceived notions, then claim the information is false. What a world. Is it any surprise humanity is on the precipice of extinction. Good riddance to bad rubbish.
JuanP on Wed, 28th Mar 2018 4:15 am
Derhund, I, personally don’t believe anything that the US and UK governments or any of their intelligence agencies say. They have lied so much for so long that I would have to be a real fool to do so. Their track record does not inspire trust. You must have a really trusting nature if you believe them.
JuanP on Wed, 28th Mar 2018 4:20 am
Mastermind, Your belief that the USA would win anything by attacking Russia with nuclear weapons is irrefutable proof that there is something wrong with you. I understand that you have a death wish, but why do you wish death on others? What is wrong with you, man? Your mommy didn’t love you enough? Your daddy beat you? Grow up and grow a pair! Get out of that basement and do something useful with your life!
Valman on Wed, 28th Mar 2018 6:46 am
Fodder is what goes in at the head of a bull(y). This stuff is what comes out the other end.
kanon on Wed, 28th Mar 2018 9:21 am
This raises the question of whether institutions and economic systems can adapt to change. When the Soviet Union collapsed, many workers and bureaucrats continued going to work, even though there was nothing to do. In the U.S. the CIA and MIC continue to wage the cold war, even though it ended long ago. The MIC is well funded and well organized, so why does it have to accept change? As a famous R strategist said: “. . . we create our own reality.”
joe on Wed, 28th Mar 2018 10:51 am
Lots of countries have this nerve agent recipe. Also, the guy and his kid are alive, that’s how you know that it wasn’t Russia…. As for solidarity, hmm, well, since 9-11 the US and UK has behaved very badly. Russia is simply living in the real multipolar world. Our governments are trying not to. Oh well.
rockman on Wed, 28th Mar 2018 11:16 am
I find it comical that the relatively small number of “diplomats” being expelled from any country will have any meaningful impact. First, define “diplomat”. My step-daughter works in a foreign embassy for the US State Dept. Is she a “diplomat”? Her current job is handling Human Resources which only deals with the embassy’s employees. Her expulsion would have no impact on any surveillance activity going on at the embassy…if there’s any underway in the first place.
IMHO all these expulsions on both sides are nothing more then meaningless theater.
Survivalist on Wed, 28th Mar 2018 3:16 pm
Sergei Skripal was sentenced to 13 years in prison. He served 4 before he was swapped. He was given a very light jail sentence by any standard of punishment for treason/espionage (USA, UK, Russia etc often assign longer sentences). He basically handed over a few GRU phone directories and a bit of other very low level int. That’s why he got the light sentence; his crime wasn’t that bad.
If Russia killed him it was not for what he was convicted of in court. Whatever it is he was killed for is likely something he had been up to more recently.
Survivalist on Wed, 28th Mar 2018 3:17 pm
correction *If Russia tried to kill him…… he’s still alive! Although likely a veggie
Cloggie on Wed, 28th Mar 2018 3:51 pm
If Russia killed him it was not for what he was convicted of in court. Whatever it is he was killed for is likely something he had been up to more recently.
He was (or is rather) the patsy, western (Anglo-Zionist) intelligence agencies used to humiliate Russia and to attempt to drive a wedge between Russia and continental Europe. Let’s hope that Brexit will be hard as a diamond or that the Spanish PM will try to suppress a Catalan uprising with a Blitz Nacht-und-Nebel-Aktion in Gibraltar and next to offer dual usage under the condition that continental Europe will get access to naval facilities in Dover.
No?
Too bad then.
Come on senor Rajoi, what are you waiting for.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eXvKH3g5k14
dissident on Wed, 28th Mar 2018 4:36 pm
Gotta love Plantagenet’s iron clad “logic”. Since Soviet chemical weapons engineers worked on the compound, then only Russia could be responsible. Even though the labs were in Uzbekistan and were dismantled by the USA. And the key Soviet engineer ran off to the USA. And the chemical formulas for this class of agents has been published and is available to the public. And the USSR never deployed this chemical agent so Russia never had any stocks to destroy under the OPCW.
This “logic” is equivalent to: you live in the same apartment building as the murder victim, so you must be responsible.
BTW, the two alleged “victims of Putin” are alive and doing well. This can only be possible if they were exposed to doses of (whatever agent you believe to have been used) that were never going to kill them. In spite of all the claims that the park bench was heavily contaminated, nothing of the sort was true. The “victims” would then have received doses high enough to either kill them or severely damage their nervous systems. They would not be “doing well” right now.
There is a clear pattern here. Since the question of motive is basically a show stopper, the people organizing these frame jobs use an exotic weapon which supposedly leaves a distinct Russian fingerprint. This is utter BS since not even the Polonium that killed Litvinenko was ever identified to come for Russian nuclear reactors (it is possible to identify such agents by the spectrum of contaminants or decay products they have). This exotic weapons trick clearly works on saps like Plantagenet.
DerHundistlos on Wed, 28th Mar 2018 5:23 pm
dissident, you should not be surprised by plantagenet aka planters wart’s nonsensical reply. Nonsense and planter’s wart are synonymous.
rockman on Wed, 28th Mar 2018 6:48 pm
Now from the Brits themselves: the nerve agent was placed on the door of his home. Doesn’t prove anything one way or the other. But not the way a pro would do the hit. One reason why he and his daughter are still alive. Unlike Little Rockman’s brother who was spayed from a plastic bottle in an airport in broad daylight by some dupe. Killed him almost instantly. If Pultin ordered the hit I suspect he was very pissed.
Consider this from http://www.businessinsider.com/russia-assassination-abroad-2017-6
“Since 2003, more than two dozen murders or mysterious deaths in multiple countries seem to trace back to Moscow. But no one seems to be doing much about it.
At least 33 people in the UK, US, Ukraine, Greece, India, and Kazakhstan have been murdered or died mysteriously in the last 14 years, according to recent reports by BuzzFeed News and USA Today. Last week, BuzzFeed News released the first two parts of a two-year investigation detailing how US spy agencies gave the British government, upon its request, evidence linking the murders or deaths of 14 Russians and Brits in the UK to the Kremlin, the FSB — Russia’s security agency — or the Russian mafia, which sometimes works with the government. But the British government has ruled out foul play in each case.
The report was based on a large volume of documents, phone records and secret recordings, as well as interviews with American, British and French intelligence and law enforcement officials. In early May, USA Today also reported that “38 prominent Russians” had been murdered or died suspiciously since 2014. Nineteen of the incidents happened outside of Russia: 3 in the US (2 in New York and 1 in Washington DC), 1 in Greece, 1 in India, 1 in Kazakhstan, and 12 in Ukraine.”
MASTERMIND on Wed, 28th Mar 2018 7:09 pm
llll