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Page added on November 10, 2014
Putin builds China links as ties with west fray
When Vladimir Putin met China’s president Xi Jinping, a memorandum of understanding for a second massive gas supply deal caught most of the attention.
For the Russian president, the deal may be less appealing for its commercial benefits than its ability to advance the larger goal of cementing ties with its eastern neighbour.
According to Russian officials and security analysts, Moscow’s worst stand-off with the west since the end of the cold war has convinced Mr Putin’s government that it must moor its security interests to China because the Euro-Atlantic security architecture is broken beyond repair.
“Co-operation between Russia and China is extremely important to keep the peace in the framework of international law, making it more stable,” Mr Putin told his Chinese counterpart, just two weeks after he accused the US of destabilising the world by frequently violating international law.
Russia’s updated military doctrine is expected to target Nato and the US more clearly as the Ukraine crisis has frayed Moscow’s relations with the western alliance. The current doctrine lists only Nato expansion, foreign troop deployments in neighbouring states, destabilisation in certain countries and deployment of missile defence systems as “external military dangers”.
People familiar with the document said Nato and the US would be openly designated as threats or adversaries in the document’s new version, due to be published next month.
Russian diplomats and analysts also said Moscow hoped to build the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation, founded by China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tadjikistan in 1996, into a more meaningful security alliance.
In a speech last month that left western observers bewildered for its rabid anti-Americanism and its lack of proposals for a positive agenda, Mr Putin bemoaned what he described as the destruction of the mechanisms that used to govern international security affairs.
“Sadly, there is no guarantee and no certainty that the current system of global and regional security is able to protect us from upheavals. This system has become seriously weakened, fragmented and deformed,” Mr Putin said. He accused the US of creating a world order in which brute force could become the only means for resolving conflicts.
According to people involved in drafting Mr Putin’s speech, it initially contained a reference to “Helsinki II” – the idea that Russia, the US and Europe should try to work out a new framework governing their security relations similar to the 1975 Helsinki Accords. A proposal by then-president Dmitry Medvedev in 2008 for a new version of the agreement credited with lowering tension during the cold war failed to get off the ground because western countries saw it as a bid to undermine Nato.
“The concept had been prepared for Putin back then, but they have lost confidence that this could work now, so it was dropped from Putin’s speech last month,” said Fyodor Lukyanov, chairman of the Council for Foreign and Defence Policy, a Moscow think-tank. “Helsinki was about fixed spheres of influence, and it worked as long as there was balance of power and deterrence. That spirit is gone now.”
Another longstanding piece of the European security architecture is the Nato Russia Act, in which Nato pledged not to create permanent bases on Russia’s borders.
But the tension over the Ukraine crisis has fuelled Russian fears that this promise is being undermined.
In addition, even though Nato has little intention of welcoming Ukraine and Georgia into the alliance, member countries see it as politically impossible to openly rule out their membership in order to keep them as buffers between the western alliance and Russia.
Mr Putin is under no illusion that things will get any easier. The next US president is almost certain to be more hawkish towards Russia than Barack Obama, who entered the White House seeking a hopeful reset of relations.
“This forces Russia to head in a different direction – towards China and Iran, out of the western international system,” says Cliff Kupchan, chairman of the Eurasia Group risk consultancy.
Moscow is already giving Nato a taste of what that means. The Russian air force has been probing the air space of Nato members with increasing frequency and range over the past two years, repeatedly forcing European militaries from Norway to Turkey scramble fighters.
26 Comments on "Putin builds China links as ties with west fray"
Makati1 on Mon, 10th Nov 2014 7:34 pm
And the beat goes on…
Eurasia is the US’ worst nightmare. The Bear and the Dragon are uniting against the Eagle. India is working to join, along with Pakistan and Iran. Then there is the Russian proposed rail and trade connection to South Korea through North Korea, and the proposed pipeline from Russia to Japan. Hungary thumbing it’s nose at NATO and working with Russia on the South Stream pipeline. Germany starting to lean East.
And on and on…
TK on Mon, 10th Nov 2014 7:50 pm
And so it went:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6vNCpGaxWno&feature=player_detailpage&list=UUGvYdbcrwwIb1bKNeA7g4Xg#t=474
Davy on Mon, 10th Nov 2014 7:51 pm
Good luck with that party Mak.
eugene on Mon, 10th Nov 2014 8:18 pm
The world has been shifting for yrs. We had our run.
Makati1 on Tue, 11th Nov 2014 3:35 am
Eugene, you are correct. It has just gained speed recently. With the world’s largest economy (IMF) and the world’s largest country and it’s resources, you have a powerful teem. Russia is not in debt, nor is China. It appears to be a match made for the 21st century.
I have a large world map on my wall that is Asia centric, meaning that
Asia is in the middle and the Western countries are at the edges. That is the way most maps are here. You have to really look for one with the Americas in the center. I have not seen one in 6+ years of looking. But then, most of the world does not see the Americas as being the center of the world, or anything. ^_^
Davy on Tue, 11th Nov 2014 6:22 am
OH, Mak, China and Russia are not what they seem. You have a sci-fi fantasy for a NWO that discounts any of the predicaments Asia has. The China economy is so far in debt there is no hope. The debt is internal though so you don’t recognize it. What is going to happen when the collapse comes is Russia is going to become a convenient “lebensraum” for a Chinese population desperate for food and space. Russia is a vast country with a population in decline. When BAU fractures Russia will find it difficult to defend a vast country from the hordes. Are they going to NUK their own land? Russia will find it hard to extract resources across a vast land in a hostile climate and destroyed economy.
If this was the beginning of the hyper BAU period which started in the 80’s then I would say yes this China Russia partnership is a match made in heaven. China will never be able to transition away from an export economy until BAU crashes. In the meantime Europe and the US are China’s two largest trading partners. Russia is much further down. That takes time to change and we have no time left. The BAU game is over. Russia does not have the population to become China’s primary outlet for its cheap plastic exports.
China is the winner in this Ukrainian inspired cold war situation but China is a dead man walking. China is a hollow dragon in overshoot. China’s problems are predicaments without solutions. Mak, Russia and China are a tough combo but only relative to a strong US and Europe all of the above in a weak codependent global economy. All major economies are tied together at the hip and will collapse together but in their own comparative advantages and disadvantages. Who comes out ahead is anyone’s guess. China is definitely in trouble because of the size of its population and its inability to feed that population. INW Mak, don’t blow your Asian hegemony up my butt. It is bad manners
Makati1 on Tue, 11th Nov 2014 7:06 am
Davy, you need to look in the cracked mirror on your wall and see the USSA for what it is, a 3rd world country painted with faux dollars to look like a 1st world country, but rotten to the core. It is the number one debtor nation bar none. Well past $100 trillion in owed and promised payments that it will never make.
Not to mention that this mid-term election sham cost over $4 billion to win. That is NOT a democracy. That is government to the highest bidder which is the mega-corporations that truly unt the US.
But then., you probably don’t/cannot admit that there can be better places and countries than the USSA. So be it. It will keep all of the rednecks in the USSA until they go to the streets and burn down the cities.
BTW: I hear that Ferguson, Missouri is a hot bed of restless sheeple. still dissatisfied with their Gestapo police. If a few hundred can cause so much disruption, imagine 10,000+ Fergusons spread across the USSA at the same time…lol.
In today’s CNN: “Gun sales spike as Ferguson area braces for grand jury decision” http://edition.cnn.com/2014/11/10/us/ferguson-michael-brown-shooting/index.html
And the beat goes on…
Davy on Tue, 11th Nov 2014 7:14 am
What’s new Mak, we talk about that everyday. You are so boring and redundant. What you fail to do is show balance and that is where you become a propagandist distorting the truth. We get tired of your Asian flag waiving.
JuanP on Tue, 11th Nov 2014 10:11 am
This is an excellent article. I was dumbfounded when I saw that FT at the bottom. I had to go back and read it again because I couldn’t believe it, but it was truly as good as I had thought the first time. It made me very nostalgic for the FT of old. This is one of the very best analyses of Russia’s foreign relations I have read this year on Western MSM.
I think my experience with politicians and diplomats in my youth and my years working in foreign trade and foreign relations as a young adult allow me to understand Putin’s speech in a way that most people can’t. Most people don’t understand how important that speech was. I consider it the most important political statement made in the 21st Century, so far.
I believe this speech was probably a warm up for Putin’s coming speech to the Russian Duma. I am filled with expectations for that speech. Putin is very, very careful with every word he says. He probably went over that speech more than a hundred times over a period of months, and had it continuously changed and improved by the team working on it.
As I read the speech, American-Russian relations have reached a tipping point and from now on they will continue getting worse for the foreseeable future.
The US government has succeeded in making Putin, Russia, and Russians the USA’s enemies, and has alienated most of the rest of the world in the process. This is hard to digest for me, it literally upsets my stomach.
JuanP on Tue, 11th Nov 2014 10:21 am
Plant, this is for you. I have finally seen the light! As of today, I think that Obama has been a worse president than Bush was. He may just be the worst US president ever.
I fear the next two years in the USA under this government. Everything here looks increasingly ready to break apart.
GregT on Tue, 11th Nov 2014 10:26 am
Excellent post JuanP. I couldn’t agree more. Putin’s speech was without a doubt the most important speech so far this century, and I personally only know of two people that have read it. My wife and myself. The western media has done a very good job of making sure that people are kept in the dark. Our corporate masters are leading us down a very dangerous path.
JuanP on Tue, 11th Nov 2014 10:40 am
Greg, I didn’t make my wife read it because she was very busy with my MIL visiting for a month, but I explained its meaning and significance over dinner. My younger brother and I are the only two people I know here in Miami that’ve read it.
Davy on Tue, 11th Nov 2014 10:57 am
Greg/Juan, wasn’t it amazing to see the group pic at the Asian Pacific summit with Obama off to the right and Putt center stage.
Putt is a fantastic leader. I would caution you about too much admiration for him and Russia. They are not perfect. Putt and Russia have a long way to go yet.
My feeling is time is running out for BAU so who knows how all this will shake out. Yet I admire the Russians for having the balls and pride to buck the system. It took a leader like Putt to do it. He is still not to be trusted in my book. None of them are at the top.
GregT on Tue, 11th Nov 2014 11:34 am
Not picking sides here Davy, only an observer. The DC oligarchs are playing a very dangerous game that is threatening international security, and could easily escalate into a global conflict. The Russians have shown incredible restraint so far, but have made it very clear that there is only so much more that they are willing to take. If DC goes after Assad, which appears likely, WW3 is not far behind. Washington has been warned, but they do not appear to be listening. What they are doing is not in the best interests of the American people, or the entire world.
Davy on Tue, 11th Nov 2014 12:08 pm
No sides taken, I trust DC mafia less than Putt because they have more power to stir up shit. Yet, Putt and the Russians have proven time and time again they are out for their self interest. Putt also has a huge fortune and buddies with huge fortunes. You know that is a big motivator behind Putt’s actions. Money corrupts Greg and Putt is only human. So Greg you are not going to sell Russia or China on me as an alternative. I am 100% against the dangerous policies in DC/NY. I want to make that clear.
baptised on Tue, 11th Nov 2014 1:49 pm
I am afraid that we(USA) will lose true global internet access. Or is that possible?
Davy on Tue, 11th Nov 2014 1:56 pm
Baptised, good question with all the NSA shenanigans. I wonder though how much do us Americans venture off into the other internet zones? Can we survive with a national Internet just fine. Maybe us crack pots on PO but big business must be international or the global system is finished.
Too much is designed, ordered, and communicated around the entire globe. My Italian girlfriend is a designer that does up stuff on computer and sends it to China and walla something physical is shipped over.
Northwest Resident on Tue, 11th Nov 2014 2:08 pm
bagptised — I’m a web developer by profession, and the answer is yes, easy, flick-of-the-switch, any time.
All global internet traffic is routed through major hubs (IXPs). There aren’t a lot of those hubs. Shutting down the IXPs would kill internet traffic in a heartbeat.
My brother just happens to be a fairly smart guy who IXPs around the world hire to do their network setup (he’s a recognized genius actually). He tells me about walking into some of these IXPs which are like mammoth-sized warehouses full of thousands and thousands of servers and all the networking/analyzing hardware. They are highly guarded and some he says are encased in nuclear-proof concrete. But somewhere, there is a power switch that would turn off all the lights.
***
An Internet exchange point (IX or IXP) is a physical infrastructure through which Internet service providers (ISPs) exchange Internet traffic between their networks (autonomous systems).
(Incomplete) List of IXPs — but most of the big ones:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Internet_exchange_points_by_size
Northwest Resident on Tue, 11th Nov 2014 2:17 pm
baptized — BTW, I like to fantasize that the US, state and local governments have emergency plans in place to keep the internet up and running in any kind of collapse scenario. The benefit would be enormous for people around the country who might not have gas, phone or television service. Education could be switched to pure internet-based curriculum. Vast amounts of knowledge needed by individuals and civic/local government would still be available over the internet, in my fantasy. Of course, it may end up being that you would have to go to a local “internet café” to get connected in a potential collapse scenario, due to limited telephone/cable and electrical grid connectivity, but still, it would be a valuable and I think irreplaceable tool to help Americans and others transform to the localized community and economy bases society that I believe we are going to be forced into sooner rather than later.
penury on Tue, 11th Nov 2014 2:38 pm
JuanP excellant commentary it does take a lot of reading and study before most US residents can cast off the blinders and accept the truth in what Putin is swaying. We are entering the times which the Chinese meant when they said”may your children live in interesting times”
GregT on Tue, 11th Nov 2014 2:42 pm
The internet is a truly amazing thing. Let’s hope it doesn’t get hijacked, shutdown, or censored. Boarding a plane now, be flying right over your house NWR in about 2 hours.
I’ll wave as I fly over. 🙂
Northwest Resident on Tue, 11th Nov 2014 2:52 pm
GregT — Cool! I’ll wave back!
jjhman on Tue, 11th Nov 2014 2:52 pm
So somehow or t’other Putin is not a land-grabbing belligerent corrupt dictator and some mysterious cabal of NY/DC bad guys are, well, bad guys?
Am I to believe that those crisply uniformed, well trained, well equipped but shadowy troops who took over Crimea and forced a phony election to join the Russian Empire were somehow the work of the west? And that whatever meddling the western powers were involved in were somehow less cynical and less self-serving than Putin’s actions in the rest of the Ukraine, or in Georgia?
There are no good guys running big well armed countries, almost by definition.
Makati1 on Tue, 11th Nov 2014 7:12 pm
jjhman, still slurping up that US government cool aid? The rest of the world knows that the Crimea voted over 80% to go to Russia.
As for troops in the Crimea, they were there prior to all of this Western caused chaos, by treaty. Up to 25,000 of them.
The Crimea has been part of Russia for over 200 years and Sevastopol is the Russian Navy seaport in the Black Sea. Has been since way before WW1.
It was given away by the drunken Khrushchev in 1954. About like Nixon giving Hawaii to Japan. It was not the people’s choice.
The Crimea tried to become a separate Republic in 1992 and this became an ongoing series of attempts until the Kiev takeover by the West this year.
Makati1 on Tue, 11th Nov 2014 9:42 pm
Also in the outside the USSA MSM propaganda curtain:
‘Russia Signs Deal With Iran To Build 8 Nuclear Power Units”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-11/russia-signs-deal-iran-build-8-nuclear-power-units
And the beat goes on…
synapsid on Wed, 12th Nov 2014 5:34 pm
Makati,
Bushehr was originally planned to be four units (maybe six but I think four) so now Russia and Iran are able to pick up that idea. The remaining units are an increase.
This helps to illustrate that Russia’s economy really does have more going for it than just exporting resources; this is often lost sight of in comments here, I think.