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Page added on September 25, 2016
Population Growth Extremes: Doublers and Decliners
Joseph Chamie is an independent consulting demographer and a former director of the United Nations Population Division.
City view of Dhaka, Bangladesh. The Asia-Pacific region is urbanizing rapidly. Credit: UN Photo/Kibae Park
– While the world’s population of 7.4 billion is growing at 1.1 percent per year – about half the peak level of the late 1960s – enormous differences in demographic growth among countries are increasingly evident and of mounting concern to countries and the international community.
Few of the decliners are prepared to accept large-scale immigration, particularly from doubler countries, to address labor force shortages and population aging concerns.
At one extreme are the doublers: 29 countries whose populations are expected to at least double by the middle of the 21st century. At the other extreme in striking contrast are the decliners: 38 countries whose populations are expected to be smaller by the middle of the 21st century.
The doublers are all located in sub-Saharan Africa except for Iraq and the State of Palestine. The largest countries among the doublers are Nigeria (187 million), followed by the Democratic Republic of the Congo (80 million) and Tanzania (55 million).
Today the doublers together account for 10 percent of the world’s population. By 2050, however, due to the doublers’ rapid rates of demographic growth that proportion is expected to increase to 18 percent of the world’s projected population of nearly 10 billion people.
Among the doublers the country with the most rapid increase is Niger, whose population of 21 million is expected to double by the year 2034 and to experience a 250 percent increase by mid-century, more than tripling its population to 72 million. Other countries with substantial increases of 150 percent or more are Zambia, Angola, Uganda and Mali (Figure 1).
Source: United Nations Population Division
The largest doubler population, Nigeria, is expected to increase by 112 percent, reaching just under 400 million by 2050 and thereby displacing the United States as the world’s third largest country after India and China. Another sizeable population increase is the Democratic Republic of the Congo whose population of 80 million is projected to increase by 145 percent, or an additional 116 million people, bringing its total midcentury population to nearly 200 million.
While not a single country’s population at the close of the 20th century was smaller than in 1950, this demographic trend is not expected to continue over the next several decades. The decliners, a group of 38 countries both developed and developing, are expected to experience population decline by the middle of the 21st century. Together the decliner’s proportion of the world’s population is projected to fall from close to 30 percent today to nearly 20 percent by the year 2050.
The top ten countries with the projected population declines of no less than 15 percent are all located in Eastern Europe (Figure 2). The country with the most rapid decline among the decliners is Bulgaria (27 percent), followed by Romania (22 percent), Ukraine (21 percent) and Moldova (20 percent).
Source: United Nations Population Division
The largest decliner population, China, is expected to decrease by more than 2 percent by 2050, with the Chinese population peaking in less than a decade. Other large populations projected to experience demographic declines by midcentury are Japan (15 percent), Russia (10 percent), Germany (8 percent) and Italy (5 percent). Moreover, some of the decliners have already experienced population decline for a number of years in the recent past, including Bulgaria, Hungary, Japan, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Russia, Serbia and Ukraine.
The population projections for the decliners assume some immigration in the future. For some decliner countries, such as Italy, Japan, Germany, Hungary, Spain and Russia, immigration lessens the expected declines in their future populations. For example, while Italy’s population with assumed immigration is projected to decline by 5 percent by mid-century, without immigration Italy’s projected population would fall to 13 percent.
Noteworthy differences exist in both mortality and migration levels between doublers and decliners. Doubler countries have markedly higher mortality rates than decliners. In addition, doublers are generally migrant-sending countries, while many of the decliners are migrant-receiving countries.
The sizeable differences in rates of future population growth, however, are primarily due to the level of fertility. The median fertility rate among the 29 doubler countries is 5.3 births per woman, ranging from a low of 4.4 in Kenya to a high of 7.6 in Niger. In contrast, fertility levels among the 38 decliner countries all fall below the replacement level of about two children, with the median fertility rate being 1.5 births per woman. Countries that are approximately a half child below the replacement level include China, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Japan, Poland, Russia and Spain.
The comparatively high and low population growth rates pose formidable, but differing challenges for doubler and decliner countries. Doublers face serious development challenges in meeting the basic needs of their rapidly growing and very young populations. The median ages of the doubler countries are all below 20 years, with the youngest being Niger (15 years), Uganda (16), Chad (16), Angola (16), Mali (16) and Somali (16).
Many doubler countries, such as Angola, Democratic Republic of Congo, Mali, Niger and Uganda, are now facing food shortages. Providing sufficient foods for their rapidly growing populations is expected to be considerably more difficult in the years ahead.
Other key areas that pose serious challenges are housing, education, health care, employment, personal security and governance, especially as nearly half of the doubler countries are among high alert failing or fragile states. Given the onerous living conditions for most of the populations in doubler countries, growing numbers of young adults are turning to both legal and illegal migration to wealthier developed countries, many of which are also decliner countries.
Among their attempts to address their high rates of population growth, doubler governments have established programs for reproductive health services to assist families to have the number of children they desire, which is generally fewer than current levels. With widespread education, especially for girls, and improved employment opportunities, the doubler governments are aiming to reduce their high fertility levels and accelerate their demographic transitions to low death and birth rates.
While decliners have by and large met the basic needs of their populations, they are confronting increasingly the pervasive consequences of population decline and aging. Contractions in the size of their labor forces coupled with increases in the proportion elderly are exerting stresses and strains on the economies and budgets of decliner countries.
Many of the decliners have already passed through the historic reversal, or the demographic point where the number of elderly aged 65 and older exceeds the number of children below age 15 years. The median ages for half of the decliners are above 40 years, with the oldest being Japan, Germany and Italy at 46 years.
With the proportion of elderly increasing and more of them living longer, often many years beyond retirement, governments of the decliner countries are particularly concerned about escalating costs for social security, pensions, health and care giving. Options to address those fiscal issues include raising official retirement ages, increasing taxes, redirecting government revenues and reducing benefits.
Few of the decliners are prepared to accept large-scale immigration, particularly from doubler countries, to address labor force shortages and population aging concerns. As is being increasingly reported, some decliners are erecting barriers, fences and walls to deter unauthorized immigration, while others remain resolutely averse to a sizeable foreign population taking hold within their borders.
Many decliner countries, including China, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia and Spain, are attempting to alter their projected demographic futures by raising their low fertility levels in hopes of mitigating population decline and perhaps even achieving near population stabilization. Moving to replacement level fertility by encouraging women to have additional children, however, has proved to be difficult and generally not successful.
It is often said that opposites attract. Perhaps in romance, friendships and the movies, people are attracted to those who are viewed different from them. That appears not to be the case for doubler and decliner countries, at least for the present. However, as has been repeatedly demonstrated throughout world demographic history, rapidly growing populations are not easily confined to within borders, eventually traversing deserts, mountains, rivers and seas and spreading out across continents.
25 Comments on "Population Growth Extremes: Doublers and Decliners"
noobtube on Sun, 25th Sep 2016 10:34 am
More coded racism. How original for Peak Oil.
Americans are like the scum in 1st class on the Titanic complaining about lobster, caviar, and champagne, while the boat is sinking, and blaming the people in steerage and 4th class who are starving and drowning.
Cloggie on Sun, 25th Sep 2016 11:21 am
More coded racism. How original for Peak Oil.
Americans are like the scum in 1st class on the Titanic complaining about lobster, caviar, and champagne, while the boat is sinking, and blaming the people in steerage and 4th class who are starving and drowning.
Why don’t you run away from it all, back to your own people in Africa? Free from racism once and for all. In short it could be Trump time for America.
Let’s see: you’re in it for the money and opportunity you can’t create by yourself, but you can’t help ruining things for yourself by giving your hatred a free pass and attempt to punch over your true weight?
Huddled Masses 2.0 – blacks voluntarily fleeing back to their former white masters. Can’t live without them after all, Black Lives in Tatters (BLT):
http://www.blazingcatfur.ca/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/African-Boat-people-very-crowded-620×451.jpg
http://content.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1713275,00.html
Moving to replacement level fertility by encouraging women to have additional children, however, has proved to be difficult and generally not successful.
That’s because we have not begun yet to criminalize feminists:
http://www.backlash.com/images/Oppressing_2013_05.jpg
Everything was better when dad was in charge:
https://cookiesandwhiskey.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/patriarchal-families.jpg
Putin btw got his population decline stopped by promoting traditional values.
Boat on Sun, 25th Sep 2016 11:46 am
clog,
Putin just cant see the big picture. The world needs less population.
Boat on Sun, 25th Sep 2016 12:03 pm
The world of declining populations should leverage their impact on population by using sanctions. It’s time for forced impact. We can lessen the pain by encouraging porn and masturbation education.
penury on Sun, 25th Sep 2016 1:43 pm
Boat, you are either an excellent satirist or the dumbest poster on the board. I really can not tell.
Apneaman on Sun, 25th Sep 2016 1:49 pm
penury, methinks it’s a mixed bag when dealing with the Boater. He has his moments both ways.
noobtube on Sun, 25th Sep 2016 1:53 pm
Cloggie is the kind of self-important trash that won’t follow his own advice.
Spouting all that State-run media garbage to add meaning to his meaningless life.
Typical garbage coming out of America, the land of the trash heap.
Apneaman on Sun, 25th Sep 2016 2:04 pm
Non-hormonal male contraceptive Vasalgel™ has proven efficacy in rabbits
https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2016-03/pf-nmc032916.php
Reversible, Condomless Male Birth Control Will Be Here in 2018
“Vasalgel is a gel that’s injected into the vas deferens (in the ball sack) and, once in there, blocks sperm from leaving the vas deferens (like a vasectomy, but temporary). ”
http://www.cosmopolitan.com/sex-love/a55978/vasalgel-male-birth-control-2018/
Yee haw! make mine a double.
Apneaman on Sun, 25th Sep 2016 2:08 pm
Gonorrhea is more dangerous than ever as resistance to antibiotics grows
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/to-your-health/wp/2016/09/21/threat-of-untreatable-gonorrhea-is-increasing-new-data-show/
One more reason that I can’t wait for Elon Musk to come out with the Tesla Wife/fuck bot.
Give dat boy a subsidy!
Apneaman on Sun, 25th Sep 2016 2:37 pm
Sorry Men, your presence is no longer required.
Women can now use app dubbed ‘order a daddy’ to pick a sperm donor
Users can browse through potential fathers and pick one based on characteristics such as race, nationality and eye colour
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/sperm-donor-app-order-a-daddy-women-fertility-london-a7328691.html
Davy on Sun, 25th Sep 2016 4:07 pm
Clog is Dutch, dumbass.
noobtube on Sun, 25th Sep 2016 4:35 pm
So that is where American trash comes from.
Davy on Sun, 25th Sep 2016 5:05 pm
nOOB, knows his name. LMFAO
Apneaman on Sun, 25th Sep 2016 8:24 pm
Too funny
Deadliest birthrate affecting all of humanity: Africa
http://sonorannews.com/new/2016/09/06/deadliest-birthrate-affecting-humanity-africa/
Millennials are picking pets over people
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/business/wp/2016/09/13/millennials-are-picking-pets-over-people/?tid=pm_business_pop_b
Why American women are having fewer babies than ever
“A few reasons are obvious: Birth control became widely available to women in the ’60s. More women have finished school and launched careers before starting a family. More rejected the idea they had to start a family at all.
Another driver of America’s increasingly late parenthood, however, has little to do with feminist empowerment. Many women who want a child or more children choose not to try for them. Some fear they can’t afford a baby, researchers say. They’re instead working toward stability, an uphill battle for many with student debt or bleak job prospects.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/08/16/why-american-women-are-having-fewer-babies-than-ever/?wpisrc=nl_wonk&wpmm=1
Sissyfuss on Sun, 25th Sep 2016 8:25 pm
Thanks App. Just when I learn that Vasalgel allows me copious amounts of copulation you then turn it on its head proclaiming that gonorrhea is gonna get me. Can’t win.
Apneaman on Sun, 25th Sep 2016 8:40 pm
Have human beings become an invasive species? With a sixth mass extinction underway, the planet’s future hangs in a precarious balance that may already be tipped irreparably.
“It seems, then, that the idea of human beings as an invasive species makes sense. Wherever we go, human beings bring death, disease, and destruction, all in the name of progress.”
Read more at http://www.inquisitr.com/3466821/human-overpopulation-have-we-become-an-invasive-species/#M0hZXWOWrTHUKFvk.99
Apneaman on Sun, 25th Sep 2016 10:48 pm
Good to see the Japanese doing their part.
Half a million young people in Japan barely leave their homes
‘They want to go out in the world, they want to make friends or lovers, but they can’t’
“More than half a million young people in Japan have shunned society and chosen to live isolated lives, according to a survey released by the government.
The phenomenon, called “hikikomori”, is defined by the Japanese Health, Labor and Welfare Ministry as people who have stayed in their home for six months or more without going to school, work or venturing out to socialise.
The survey found that 541,000 15 to 39-year-olds were living in isolation. The figure is actually lower than was estimated in the 2010 Cabinet Office survey, when 696,000 were thought to be suffering from hikikomori.”
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/young-people-japan-hikikomori-anxiety-a7329396.html
“It is no measure of health to be well adjusted to a profoundly sick society.” – Jiddu Krishnamurti
Hello on Mon, 26th Sep 2016 12:02 am
Funny that the highest performance breeder nation is called niger.
theedrich on Mon, 26th Sep 2016 1:50 am
Noob, go back to your snakepit. No one here needs any more parasites like you. The world is already swollen with diseased microcephalics from Blackland and other garbage pits. The only reason creatures like you are imported here is to expand the numbers of the Demonic Party which is committed to overpopulating the earth with lower primates.
Anonymous on Mon, 26th Sep 2016 2:28 am
The only number you need to know, is the doubling time.
1.1% = Doubling time of 63 years.
If the current rate hold steady (its an assumption yes, my crystal ball has been on the fritz lately), then by 2079 (give or take), its a…
14.8 billion world.
Is 63 years a long time? What has humanity as a whole the last 63 years to deal with the problem? Some would say, we’ve managed to slowed the rate of growth(somewhat)-Hooray!.
I guess we can declare victory now that we have 63 years(or so), to figure out to how to feed, house and provide jobs for the next 7 billion+ on the way.
Someone will figure it out, im sure.
dooma on Mon, 26th Sep 2016 2:36 am
“Half a million young people in Japan barely leave their homes
‘They want to go out in the world, they want to make friends or lovers, but they can’t’”
WTF, why can’t they?
Must be a LOT of Japanese porn watching going on…hihihihihihihihihihihi
Davy on Mon, 26th Sep 2016 6:56 am
My crystal ball says maybe 500MIL more. My crystal ball is based on food production and oil depletion with influences by abrupt climate change and economic deflation. We have 75MIL more mouths to feed a year. In 6.66 years we will be 500MIL. This puts us in the vicinity of the dead state of peak oil dynamics of the ETP model. Demand destruction and economic destruction of the oil industry should be considerable by 2022. It is likely within 6.66 years we will have a blue ocean artic with serious consequences for stable agricultural production. Within 6.66 years I can imagine the economy in a reduced capacity. We are already flirting with negative rates and helicopter money. It takes an economy to move, process, preserve, and trade food. It takes a healthy robust economy to do that for 7BIL. It takes a growing economy to do that for 7.5BIL. Yes the 500MIL matters when you are going the wrong way with economic growth, oil supply, and a destabilizing climate.
Food production will be directly influenced by depleting oil and a deflating economy. If both the oil complex and the global economy are declining than food production is surely going to decline. Yes, food production and oil supply have grown and appear to still be in growth but that growth rate is decelerating. This deceleration could speed up dramatically with an economic recession, depression, or worse. The ecosystem is in decline with local failures. This is most evident with plummeting fish production. Numnuts like our pal from the P’s will say “oh but we have farm raised fish”, yeazbut, where is the food for the fish farm coming from if food production is in decline. Fish stocks are in decline and failure including fish for fish farms. We have climate change that is going to destabilize weather with droughts, floods, and these at the wrong time. Rain makes grain but not at the wrong time. If you can’t plant or harvest because of wet conditions you will reduce productivity. If you have floods and then drought this is even worse. We have at best one year supply of food globally in an imaginary food “SPR” (reserves). I say imaginary because imagine the global confidence levels with one failing harvest. Food insecurity is the quickest way to shatter global confidence.
Confidence is liquidity and liquidity is activity. What is after activity, yea, funerals and crying. How this is all going to combine, reinforce, and spawn new problems is anyone’s guess. This is too complex a function to predict. What we can do is see trends. The trend is not our friend folks. That is the key to this equation. Is our trend equation of modern civilization in a positive or negative trend? What I presented to you above is not positive. The above is not extremist drool like is typical of this board. What is above is negative trends that have relationships. These relationships are mutual and reinforcing.
The negative knee of the population curve is out there. It is going to hit quickly and it will be a profound event for modern civilization. Modern civilization appears to me to not be able to function in a negative population growth environment. Not only is it systematically not constructed for this it is psychologically not prepared for this. Modern man is close to a negative inflection. 6.66 year is nearby. Oh, I used the 6.66 as emphasis for all you superstitious ones. I know it is not the number of the beast but it still elicits the fear of that number. I injected superstition because as far as I am concerned modern optimism is superstition. This is more than numbers and equations this is about Ecos and acquiescence. Ecos is near the end of human population growth acquiescence. That is clear in my crystal ball.
Kenz300 on Mon, 26th Sep 2016 9:39 am
Having a child that you can not provide for is cruel.
It only leads to more poverty, suffering and despair.
Apneaman on Mon, 26th Sep 2016 11:49 am
Kenx, I have 10 kids spread over many camp towns throughout BC. Never saw them, never gave their mama’s a dime. Still trying to have more. I luvs spreading my seed and letting the taxpayer pick up the tab. Considering going to Africa on a fuck vacation to knock up some baby mama’s up over there too. Have a nice day.
Apneaman on Mon, 26th Sep 2016 11:57 am
douchy, if you really want to see some mouth breathing lower primates then attend a Trump rally. Be prepared to be drooled on.