The possibility of Iran attempting to close the Strait of Hormuz to tanker traffic has increased significantly in recent weeks, as has the possibility of a Persian Gulf War, especially with the Islamic Republics’ intentional destruction of a U.S. surveillance drone on June 20.
This act provides weight to Tehran’s threat that it will inflict a heavy toll on U.S. allies in the region if attacked by American forces and will not allow these same countries to export their oil if it can’t export its own.
The memory remains remarkably fresh in Iran of the 1951-53 oil embargo that toppled the democratically-elected government of Prime Minister Mohammed Mossadegh – and the CIA installing the despot Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the so-called Shah of Iran, in his place.
The impact on oil markets of an Iranian closure of the Strait of Hormuz would be enormous.
Strait of Hormuz Closure
The leadership of the Iranian Navy and the Revolutionary Guard Navy, knowing they could never challenge the U.S. in a conventional naval contest, have been accumulating considerable asymmetric and other capabilities to enable the Islamic Republic to close the Strait of Hormuz since the “tanker war” in the Persian Gulf during the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq War.
These capabilities include thousands of sea mines, torpedoes, advanced cruise missiles, regular-sized and mini-submarines, and a flotilla of small fast-attack boats, most of which are concentrated in the strait region.
Pentagon planners believe Iran would use all of these capabilities in an integrated fashion to both disrupt maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and attempt to deny American and allied forces access to the region. Iranian naval forces are viewed as a “credible threat” to international shipping in the strait.
When commanding CENTCOM between 2010 and 2013, former Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis developed a multinational plan to minimize disruptions to maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz by preventing Iranian efforts to lay mines and systematically clear mines that have been deployed. The focus on mines was due to the assumption that they were the major means to hinder traffic as it is difficult to sink a modern double-hull oil tanker by torpedo or missile attack. A primary goal of the plan is to create ever-larger safe passages through minefields to allow movement of oil tankers to return to pre-crisis levels as quickly as possible.
There is a consensus among U.S. military planners that American and allied forces would ultimately prevail over Iran if it attempted to close the Strait of Hormuz. The most optimistic planners believe U.S.-led forces could reopen the straight within a few days, whereas the least optimistic ones believe it could take up to three months to restore maritime traffic to normal levels.
Of course, hostilities could spread from the Strait of Hormuz to elsewhere in the Persian Gulf region – and a regional war could break out even without Iran first closing the strait – in which case oil and gas production and export infrastructure would suffer significant damage.
If attacked by U.S. and allied forces, or if it believes an attack is imminent, Tehran may choose to launch airstrikes and missiles on American military forces and regional allies such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE while it still has the capability to do so. This ‘use them before you lose them’ strategy would largely be based on Saddam Hussein’s experience in Iraq.
Three Scenarios
The impact of a closure of the Strait of Hormuz on global crude prices obviously depends on the amount of oil kept off the world market on a daily basis and the duration of the disruption. Based on the discussion in the previous section, we explore two scenarios that relate directly to the Strait of Hormuz, and a third one that includes a Persian Gulf War.
In the Optimistic Scenario, where the Strait of Hormuz is only closed to commercial traffic for a few days, the impact on global oil supplies would be relatively minimal, but we would still see a brief spike above $100 per barrel due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would then quickly fall back to pre-crisis levels.
The flow of 20.7 million b/d of crude and petroleum product would be curtailed if the Strait of Hormuz is fully closed, but this would be mitigated by almost 4 million b/d of crude being shipped on currently spare pipeline capacity across Saudi Arabia to Red Sea export facilities and the Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
In addition, Saudi Arabia has stored an undisclosed, albeit relatively small amount of crude oil in a number of storage facilities around the world, including Rotterdam in Europe, Okinawa and China in Asia, and the U.S. Gulf Coast.
Under the Pessimistic Scenario, the world’s oil emergency response system would be taxed to its maximum in the first two months of the crisis – assuming the Strait of Hormuz is fully closed for the first 45 days, and a straight line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days – leading to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Global strategic oil reserves would be more than enough to cover the shortfall in an overall sense, with 40 percent of the 1.9-billion-barrel total remaining post-crisis, but the rate of daily withdrawal from strategic reserves would pose a challenge.
Previous studies suggest that a maximum of 14.4 million b/d of crude and product could be released from the International Energy Agency (IEA) member country reserves in the first month and roughly 12.5 million b/d in the second month, compared to disruptions of 16.9 million b/d and 15.5 million b/d, respectively, based on our assumptions.
China and India now account for about a fifth of global strategic reserves, and releases from their reserves would contribute to the IEA efforts – whereas commercial inventories around the world now tend to run on a just-in-time basis.
Based on an April 2018 study by the Riyadh-based King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (KAPSARC), in a world without spare crude capacity – which in effect would be the case with the Strait of Hormuz closed – oil prices would have spiked above $325 per barrel at the height of the Libyan Crisis in June 2011. For the sake of scale, a mere 60 million barrels were released from IEA country stockpiles during that crisis.
Finally, in a Doomsday Scenario, where there is significant damage to Persian Gulf oil-producing and export infrastructure as well as a three-month closure of the Strait of Hormuz, crude oil prices would rocket into the stratosphere. They would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession. A direct hit on Saudi Aramco’s Abqaiq oil processing facility alone could deprive the world market of 7 million b/d for a year or more as the plant is repaired.
The impact of this and other Persian Gulf production losses could be mitigated somewhat by the remaining 40 percent of the world’s strategic reserves, as well as 200 million b/d of crude that Saudi Arabia holds in reserve at home assuming Saudi export facilities remain relatively intact.
Cloggie on Mon, 8th Jul 2019 1:08 pm
“Persian Gulf Conflict Could Send Oil Beyond $325”
Will bring peak oil demand much nearer.
And drive the EU into the arms of Russia.
Bring it on.
Open your wallet and order your turn-key offshore windpark in Europe now.
Nord Stream 2 about to circumvent Denmark:
https://www.rt.com/business/463569-nord-stream-2-hurdles/
Germany determined to complete the project:
https://www.rt.com/business/463662-germany-needs-nord-stream-2/
Holland is to the US what the GDR of former fame was to the USSR: its greatest lapdog in continental Europe:
https://nos.nl/artikel/2292606-kabinet-overweegt-fregat-naar-straat-van-hormuz-te-sturen.html
Wants to send war ships on request of the US.
ANAL REAPER on Mon, 8th Jul 2019 1:09 pm
Most Arabs are inbred pieces of CUM.
Just nuke the useless race and rape their oil.
Gaia on Mon, 8th Jul 2019 1:35 pm
I don’t follow the news or politics anymore.
Dredd on Mon, 8th Jul 2019 1:57 pm
Oil-Qaeda has lots of ways to raise the price of oil.
It is in their DNA (Beyond Fingerprints: Sea Level DNA – 4).
Anonymouse on Mon, 8th Jul 2019 1:59 pm
Wise policy Gaia, it really is. Watching or listening to any corporate\MSM ‘news’ source here in the free-world order is guaranteed to make you stupid, depressed and or angry. And by angry I mean at people who have in most cases, done no harm and bear you and yours no ill-will at all.
Look at what decades of slavish MSM worship have done to amerikans in general, and our very own exceptionalturd here. Man is he ever stupid. And angry. You bet he is. Davytard is the kind of life-form you get when you mainline corporate news your entire existence.
Sissyfuss on Mon, 8th Jul 2019 2:02 pm
And Douchebag Bank fires the first shot in dealing with debt. Slashing payroll, ending dividends, and getting out of several financial options. Some economists are calling this another Lehman Brothers moment.
Robert Inget on Mon, 8th Jul 2019 2:41 pm
This is going to be a big week for The President.
First and foremost; When the Trump’s tax returns are released (see below) he may put the nation in a state of war to distract attention from a congressional report on his criminal activities.
Second, The President needs to keep Jeffery Epstein clammed up. The State of NY will try to make a deal with Epstein to rat out Trump
and perhaps Bill Clinton in exchange for a lighter sentence. Dangling pardons for Federal crimes
would certainly draw attention.
Third. Going against Congress by attacking Iran’s
military directly would certainly bring on impeachment.
Attacking Iran’s proxy fighters with our own proxy
fighters, like Saudi Arabia and/or Israel, might tease Iran into more direct confrontations.
Once ‘our oil’ is trapped out of reach we could then be free to attack Iran, (and Russia an China not to mention Iraq)
I thought WTI was going to $60 this morning but
shorts did not move in great numbers to cover.
(Trump’s tax returns to be released this week)
New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo on Monday signed a bill that would allow certain members of Congress to access to President Donald Trump’s New York state tax returns.
The bill, which Cuomo had been expected to OK, requires New York officials to release tax returns of public officials that have been requested by “congressional tax-related committees” that have cited “specified and legitimate legislative purpose” in seeking them.
“(T)his bill gives Congress the ability to fulfill its Constitutional responsibilities, strengthen our democratic system and ensure that no one is above the law,” Cuomo, a Democrat, said in a statement.
Trump really really needs to distract attention from NYC’s latest move. Perhaps he would prefer
having a decade old rape charge disclosed to a close forinsic examination of his taxes.
Robert Inget on Mon, 8th Jul 2019 2:52 pm
https://www.newsweek.com/jeffrey-epstein-connections-political-public-figures-1448037
President Trump denies Knowing Jeffrey Epstein.
Chrome Mags on Mon, 8th Jul 2019 3:23 pm
“I don’t follow the news or politics anymore.”
I don’t either, Gaia. Not sure if its for the same reason. For me with all the lies I found myself getting angry and frustrated, so decided I was no longer interested and the result is I’m much calmer. It’s really nice now not knowing what’s going on. I have no power or say in it anyway. I still vote but more and more I see that as something that has been swindled away from us. Also lobbying which is a form of corruption of our democracy.
It’s just a natural process to lose democracy over time, as politicians seek ways to corrupt the system to benefit themselves and or their party.
makati1 on Mon, 8th Jul 2019 6:25 pm
A number of good, intelligent comments above, for a change. Anyone who believes anything out of the US MSM Propaganda Machine needs some serious psychiatric help. The lies upon lies upon lies have destroyed what was left of a good America. Few good Americans are left to fight back. Ah well, it was good while it lasted.
As for Gulf oil or any oily price, bring it on. If the ME explodes, the price of oil will be the least of our worries as it will quickly lead to WW3 and who knows…?
WW1 was rockets, bombs and gas. ~40 million dead.
WW2 was rockets, bombs and two nukes. ~60 million dead.
WW3 ??? Missiles, chemical and biological weapons, and (very likely) nukes at the end. All humans dead or dying. We shall see. We live in very exciting times.
claes on Mon, 8th Jul 2019 8:07 pm
Mak ,you are so rigth, but don’t forget Stalin’s milions of internal deaths, and why not Mao’s 40 million deaths in chinas “great leap forward”.
We are all killers, but some are more killers than others.
The communists take the price when it comes to killing their own .
claes on Mon, 8th Jul 2019 8:21 pm
And Mak, why don’t you blame the blacks in Uganda for killing 800.000 hutues. I call that black privilige. If whites had done the same…. I don’t even want to think about it.
claes on Mon, 8th Jul 2019 8:42 pm
It’s about time to recognize black people’s evilness to their own brothers and sisters, and not just the white’s wrong doings to the blacks.
I’m not saying that the whites were right, i’m just saying that the the blacks are pretty evil themselves.
makati1 on Mon, 8th Jul 2019 8:45 pm
claes, I do not support one color over another. What happens in Uganda or Venezuela, or any other country is their business, not mine or the US’. That is why I want the US to be put down so it cannot meddle and kill as it has been for the last 70+ years. Throw in that other meddler, Israel and the world could be at peace.
BTW: The US has killed indiscriminately, over 20,000,000 men, women and children in that time period. I guess that makes the Uganda mess small potatoes.
https://www.globalresearch.ca/us-has-killed-more-than-20-million…/5492051
And Americans are still killing in at least 70 countries. The US, a country of sadistic, greedy, butchers. We put down rabid dogs. The rabid US needs the same treatment.
claes on Mon, 8th Jul 2019 9:04 pm
Mak, Off course you see the uganda mess as small potatoes, after all is was black people doing it and they do have the black privilige. So – no worries here.
Antius on Mon, 8th Jul 2019 9:35 pm
A non-oil transportation technology that would actually work affordably in the real world.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gyrobus
The gyrobus uses electrical or mechanical power to charge a flywheel, which then discharges to produce AC power to drive the vehicle between stops a few miles apart.
The gyrobuses developed in the 1950s, used alloy steel flywheels, which were relatively heavy, resulting in both high energy consumption relative to diesel buses and a lot of wear on thrust bearings. The 1970s saw the development of materials with an order of magnitude greater strength-weight, such as s-glass and carbon fibre. But by this point, oil was cheap and abundant and there was no big driver to develop a non-diesel alternative to a vehicle that was already quite energy efficient.
Interestingly, it would not necessarily require cutting edge technology to make this idea into a workable concept. Flywheel energy storage could make use of ordinary steel thrust bearings. The greatly reduced weight of s-glass wound rotors would be enough to eliminate the excessive wear problems and high specific energy consumption, that rendered the 1950s gyrobus impracticable.
What does this idea have going for it that competing concepts do not? Electric trams and trolley buses require catenary systems that are capital intensive and may be difficult to afford by debt saddled nations caught in an energy crisis. If we need to scale up electric transport systems quickly and cheaply, the gyrobus requires little additional infrastructure and can be developed rapidly. The flywheel is constructed from common materials and should last for the lifetime of the bus, although occasional replacement of the thrust bearings may be required. Battery systems would require more regular replacement; they need rare and toxic chemicals in their manufacture and have inferior charge-discharge rates.
Charging at stops can be accomplished using conducting pads in the road or an overhead contact.
The same technology could be applied to railways and tramways. The low friction of rails and generally low frontal area of trains, allows the same flywheel to provide greater range.
Antius on Mon, 8th Jul 2019 9:46 pm
“That is why I want the US to be put down so it cannot meddle and kill as it has been for the last 70+ years.”
Makati, human nature being what it is, if the US were wiped out by a zombie plague tomorrow; is it not reasonable to assume that another nation would impose its will on the world in much the same way?
America displays an exceptionalist arrogance that stems from possessing overwhelming economic and military might for the past century. Both those advantages have substantially diminished. But another nation transplanted into the same position would develop a similar superiority complex.
makati1 on Mon, 8th Jul 2019 10:06 pm
No Antius, it is NOT reasonable. No other country has the psychotic need to be “THE” world power, nor the resources, nor the will. Only the “indispensable/exceptional” US is so mentally ill that power/control is worth ending the human race for. Well, maybe Israel for some religious claims made thousands of years ago about some ‘apocalypse’ and fairy-tale afterlife. Again, a psychotic need. How much better the US would be today if those trillion$ had been spent on Americans and not wars of plunder/choice? The American Dream?
No other nation can attain the same position in today’s world. It is not possible for many obvious reasons. 2019 is NOT the 20th century. Russia has the military, but not the inclination. China has the people/economy but not the inclination. No one wants to run the world, except the US. Time to take that rabid dog down. Today is ok by me. Give that orange bull in the tariff shop another four years and see the end of the empire and, maybe, America. GO TRUMP! TRUMP IN 2020!
claes on Mon, 8th Jul 2019 10:21 pm
Anti, This is exactly what china wants to do:
“But another nation transplanted into the same position would develop a similar superiority complex”
China wants to take over Amerca’s place in the world, just in a more fascistic way. Give the chinese a chance and they will kill all the freedoms that we to day associate with western life – even under US domination.
There is a huge difference between american and chinese tyranny.
claes on Mon, 8th Jul 2019 10:34 pm
Mak: No one wants to run the world, except the US.
Aren’t you just a little naive. There is such a thing as the chinese dream. OBOR and the South China Sea expansion shows exactly what they are heading for, while at the same time they are supressing their own minorities.
Give us a break Mak, there is no way you can see china as a better tyrany than the existing TPTB
Antius on Mon, 8th Jul 2019 10:35 pm
The Chinese have been horribly abusive to their neighbours throughout history. Ask the Koreans, the Vietnamese, the Tibetans and tge Uigars.
Russian history is a story that begins with the brutal plunder of Asian tribes and confiscation of their land, followed by much the same in Eastern Europe. Not so long ago, the Japanese tried to annex the entire eastern hemisphere. The recent history of European nations is the story of global empires. The Islamic countries, especially Saudi, would happily spread their poison to the rest of the world given half a chance.
I think you are being naive in your belief that the US is exceptional in its hunger for control of the world. The Russian and Chinese political positions would be quite a lot more assertive if they did not have to contend with the US military. The Philippines would likely be under Chinese imperial rule and Eastern Europe would be ruled by Russian controlled puppet governments.
claes on Mon, 8th Jul 2019 10:47 pm
All empires are the same, being Chinese, Russian or American. Ecxept for this little thing : You don’t go to jail in america for saying whats on your mind.
Antius on Mon, 8th Jul 2019 10:58 pm
“You don’t go to jail in america for saying whats on your mind.”
Quite true. A very significant saving grace and one that the Democratic perverts would love to get rid of. In Britain, there is no such freedom. Left-wing idealism always leads to totalitarianism. If people are free to speak, then they are free to question the sacred truth. There is nothing that left-wing idealists hate more than someone questioning or openly disagreeing with their heartfelt beliefs. It is intensely painful for them.
Antius on Mon, 8th Jul 2019 11:02 pm
How Jewish perverts conspired to sell young white virgins to pleasure the rich and powerful.
https://tinyurl.com/y2wn5xz9
If this does not disgust you then nothing will.
claes on Mon, 8th Jul 2019 11:07 pm
Antius: political correctness seems to be law in a lot of western contries. Freedom of speech – and science – is taking a lot of flak these days.
claes on Mon, 8th Jul 2019 11:18 pm
Antius, I am pro white, not antisemitic _ just that you know it. Actually not anti anything, just pro white
makati1 on Mon, 8th Jul 2019 11:37 pm
Antius/claes, you need some education that brings your thinking into the 21st century. But that requires giving up the Amerocentric, Sinophobic, Russophobic mindset, which, obviously you cannot or will not. So be it.
America needs to be leveled and that process is ongoing as we type. Defending the indefensible is the Davy mindset that typifies American zombie, snowflake tax slaves today. Hypocrisy, lies and theft/corruption defines America and most Americans. The coming pain is well earned and deserved. I hope you are prepared for it. I am. Nice to watch the US collapse from the cheap seats 8,000 miles away.
Cloggie on Tue, 9th Jul 2019 1:01 am
“Antius, I am pro white, not antisemitic”
Contradictio in termini.
Davy on Tue, 9th Jul 2019 1:05 am
Jesus was a Arab Antius, and so was God.
Just saying…..
Unidentified Locker Room Asst. on Tue, 9th Jul 2019 1:20 am
Antius:
Yes, I worked at a private Jewish club and the club only hires German, Catholic, blond hair, blue eyes young men/ladies for work in the locker rooms. In order to obtain a position, all applicants must submit to a physique exam. We were told, “you are here to service the membership, and the word “no” does not exist. If a member wanted to be bathed (nude of course), he would select one of us. We would be asked to strip and accompany a member into the sauna or turkish bath, if so desired. We would also assist a professional masseur with the member.
I worked at the club during the mid 1970s and jobs were difficult to come by, and a person was grateful for the opportunity to work and so we did what we had to do not to lose the position.
Cloggie on Tue, 9th Jul 2019 1:22 am
“How Jewish perverts conspired to sell young white virgins to pleasure the rich and powerful.”
Just carefully study the remarks of our resident kike I AM THE FLOP to get ample verification of their mind set: they are thinking 24/7 about how they can harm and destroy us and have rape fantasies.
The even openly admit it:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G0eeNijdv3I
http://www.unz.com/gatzmon/dont-say-epstein/
http://www.unz.com/gatzmon/on-chosen-mess/
Interesting that just like with apneaman of former fame, I AM THE FLOP has an ever more reduced presence here.
He knows he is losing the battle.
Antius on Tue, 9th Jul 2019 2:12 am
Ghislaine Maxwell is the daughter of Robert Maxwell, a kike who owned a major British newspaper and got caught raiding his employees pension fund. Apparently, daddy failed to teach his daughter the lesson that every kike should know: Cheat whitey all you like, but don’t get caught cheating whitey.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghislaine_Maxwell
Here is the one that got caught running the college admissions scandal.
https://tinyurl.com/yxcahhgh
Fraud on Tue, 9th Jul 2019 3:27 am
The Talmud, the jewish “holy book”, is very clear on this issue: under certain circumstances it’s perfectly “kosher” to cheat the gentiles, but only if it doesn’t bring dangerous and undesirable attention upon the jewish community.
Show me the money, honey on Tue, 9th Jul 2019 3:34 am
After many years of legal wrangling, Jews in the Netherlands have finally succeeded in extorting “reparations” out of NS, the Dutch national train service, which, they claim, transported Jews to a transit camp during World War II. While the settlement amount is secret, insiders estimate a total payout between 390-780 million Euros.
JuanP on Tue, 9th Jul 2019 4:38 am
OOps I am JuanP not Davy
“Davy on Tue, 9th Jul 2019 1:05 am
Jesus was a Arab Antius, and so was God.
Just saying…..”
JuanP shit on Tue, 9th Jul 2019 4:40 am
Unidentified Locker Room Asst. on Tue, 9th Jul 2019 1:20 am
Fraud on Tue, 9th Jul 2019 3:27 am
Show me the money, honey on Tue, 9th Jul 2019 3:34 am
Davy on Tue, 9th Jul 2019 5:06 am
European Union: Toward A European Superstate”
https://tinyurl.com/y558rwwc gatestone institute via zero hedge
“Financial reporter Bjarke Smith-Meyer noted that Lagarde’s nomination came as something of a surprise and “pushes the European Central Bank toward an area it’s tried to avoid in its 21-year history: politics.” Paul Taylor, a columnist for Politico, added: “Central banking is rocket science. If you don’t get it right, the consequences can be tragic. “That’s why EU leaders are taking a huge gamble in their decision to entrust the leadership of the European Central Bank to Christine Lagarde, a political rock star with no economic training and no practical experience of monetary policy. “At a time when the ECB is running low on options for jolting the economy, Lagarde may have the acumen and authority needed to persuade reluctant, conservative Germany and the Netherlands of the urgent need to provide more fiscal stimulus….”But by nominating the former French minister to succeed Italy’s Mario Draghi — the bold president of the bank who rescued the European economy in 2012 with a promise to do ‘whatever it takes to preserve the euro’ — the EU’s leaders have effectively decided that they don’t need a central banker to run their central bank….”The surprise choice of Lagarde, 64, was part of a Franco-German trade-off under which conservative German Defense Minister Ursula von der Leyen, 60, was nominated to head the European Commission, breaking a political deadlock in which all the original candidates fell by the wayside…”The main reason why Lagarde got the nod, instead of the experienced French central bank chief François Villeroy de Galhau, appeared to be gender. “For the first time, the sensitive choice of ECB chief was the adjustment variable in political horse-trading over other top EU jobs — even though the bank is meant to be strictly independent of politics.”
“Writing for The Telegraph, columnist Allister Heath, in an essay titled, “The EU is a Sham Democracy,” noted: “Thank you, Eurocrats, for being yourselves. The best cure for Europhilia is always to observe the EU’s big beasts at their unguarded worst, wheeling and dealing in their natural habitat, unencumbered by any attachment to democracy, accountability or even basic morality. “The spectacle of the past few days made for compulsive watching: we witnessed rare footage of the secretive process that propels so many retreads and second-rate apparatchiks into positions of immense power in Brussels and Frankfurt, utterly disregarding public opinion. “Peeking into Europe’s dystopia was certainly the right medicine for pre-Brexit Britain, guaranteed to convert erstwhile moderates into raging Brexiteers as they looked on, aghast, at the shocking disconnect between elites and people. “Everything that is wrong with the EU was shamelessly on display: a Franco-German stitch-up; smaller countries being bulldozed, especially Eastern Europeans; a constitutional coup which sidelined the (useless) European Parliament; the fact that so many of the new generation of EU leaders have had brushes with the law that would have terminated their careers in the US or UK; their explicit commitment to a ‘United States of Europe’ and a ‘European army’ (about which we keep being lied to); and the singing of a national anthem we were promised wouldn’t exist when the European constitution was voted down….”While the EU apes some of the rituals of democracy, they are a sinister sham, and will always be. The EU is a technocratic empire, and can be nothing else.”
Hello on Tue, 9th Jul 2019 5:21 am
>>>>>> The best cure for Europhilia is always to observe the EU’s big beasts at their unguarded worst, wheeling and dealing in their natural habitat, unencumbered by any attachment to democracy, accountability or even basic morality.
Bravo! I again salute the brave Brits to wanting to take their own affairs into their own hands. I hope they are not only brave enough to vote, but also brave enough to follow through.
Davy on Tue, 9th Jul 2019 5:23 am
“From Russia-Gate To Deep-State-Gate: “All Hell May Break Loose”
https://tinyurl.com/y5mydn4l consortium news via zero hedge
“What Did Obama Know, and When Did He Know It? Recall that in a Sept. 2, 2016 text message to the FBI’s then-deputy chief of counterintelligence Peter Strzok, his girlfriend and then-top legal adviser to Deputy FBI Director McCabe, Lisa Page, wrote that she was preparing talking points because the president “wants to know everything we’re doing.”[Emphasis added.] It does not seem likely that the Director of National Intelligence, DOJ, FBI, and CIA all kept President Obama in the dark about their FISA and other machinations — although it is possible they did so out of a desire to provide him with “plausible denial.” It seems more likely that Obama’s closest intelligence confidant, Brennan, told him about the shenanigans with FISA, that Obama gave him approval (perhaps just tacit approval), and that Brennan used that to harness top intelligence and law enforcement officials behind the effort to defeat Trump and, later, to emasculate and, if possible, remove him. Moreover, one should not rule out seeing in the coming months an “Obama-made-us-do-it” defense — whether grounded in fact or not — by Brennan and perhaps the rest of the gang. Brennan may even have a piece of paper recording the President’s “approval” for this or that — or could readily have his former subordinates prepare one that appears authentic.”
“There is ample evidence that President Trump is afraid to run afoul of the Deep State functionaries he inherited. And the Deep State almost always wins. But if Attorney General Barr leans hard on the president to unfetter Nunes, IG Horowitz, Durham and like-minded investigators, all hell may break lose, because the evidence against those who took serious liberties with the law is staring them all in the face.”
Davy on Tue, 9th Jul 2019 5:32 am
“30% Of The Companies In The Russell Are Unprofitable”
https://tinyurl.com/y6c7bfeo zero hedge
“While the shift in Fed policy is cyclical, what’s going on outside the US is clearly structural and it is informing asset prices everywhere. A global economy awash in debt (both at record levels) is forcing both policymakers and markets to accept the fact that the neutral rate of interest is lower than either thought possible just 6 months ago. Fold in a global economic slowdown, necessitating a monetary policy response, and you get today’s ultra-low yield environment. As far as what this means for making money in the back half of 2019, we have 3 suggestions: Favor US equities over all other geographic regions. At least American companies are still very profitable, which allows them to buy back stock, and the US economy remains stable. Yes, the S&P 500 is expensive at 17.1x forward earnings versus 12.1x for Emerging Markets and 13.6x for EAFE. But US markets also represent global best-of-breed companies, especially in Technology. There will be time for bargain hunting later, but now is not the time. That will come when global rates see their nadir. Expect to see significantly more global equity market volatility later in Q3 and through early Q4. Lower rates are juicing global stock markets just now, and that should continue through the July 31st Fed meeting. But both seasonality and common sense says ever more negative global interest rates are a storm flag, not a sign that says “come on in, the water’s fine”. Underweight US small caps. Recall that the Russell 200 is most heavily weighted to Financials and Industrials (15% apiece) where the S&P 500 is 13% Financials and just 9% Industrials. Further, about 30% of the companies in the Russell are unprofitable, necessitating access to outside capital which tends to grow scarce as markets wobble. The bottom line here: in the first half of 2019 lower interest rates helped risk assets like stocks, but we feel that the second half will see some of erosion of that positive dynamic.”
Davy on Tue, 9th Jul 2019 5:43 am
“Share of total primary energy consumption by country and source”
https://tinyurl.com/y3rhaapt Bloomberg
Davy on Tue, 9th Jul 2019 5:52 am
“Chevron Is Playing a Long Game in Venezuela’s Oil Fields”
https://tinyurl.com/y5whoe2r Bloomberg
“Chevron is helping tap four fields in the country while testing new injection technologies to maximize production in one, says a person familiar with the operations who asked not to be named because he wasn’t authorized to discuss the matter. Chevron is also helping pay for supplies, expenses, and even health care for workers at state-owned oil producer Petróleos de Venezuela SA (PDVSA) to keep the crude flowing, says that person. Chevron’s actions are an attempt to play the long game in economically ravaged Venezuela. U.S. and European rivals have largely abandoned the country, but Chevron is betting on a future payoff if it stays put in a country with 303 billion barrels of proven crude reserves”
“This news may be bad for the future of Venezuela’s public finances, but it puts Chevron in a privileged position. Although many rivals may avoid Venezuela because of its difficult operating environment and low-quality crude, Chevron already has more than $1 billion worth of complex infrastructure in place to deal with both. “The ideal outcome is to still have the property when the regime ends,” says Dallen of Caracas Capital Markets. “I think their goal is to outlast Maduro.”
Davy on Tue, 9th Jul 2019 6:04 am
“Natural Gas beat coal in the US. Will renewables and storage beat gas?”
https://tinyurl.com/yy5d6db8 renewable energy world
“In April 2019, in the heart of coal country, Indiana regulators rejected a proposal by its electric and gas utility, Vectren, to replace baseload coal plants with a new $900 million, 850 megawatt (MW) natural gas-fired power plant. Regulators were concerned that with the dramatic decline in the cost of renewable energy, maturation of energy storage and rapidly changing customer demand, such a major gas plant investment could become a stranded, uneconomic asset in the future. Regulators are now pushing Vectren to consider more decentralized, lower-carbon resources such as wind, solar and storage that would offer greater resource diversity, flexibility and cost effectiveness. This decision is notable in a state where coal is still the primary energy fuel. At the same time, the Indiana decision hints at a broader transformation happening across the United States. Coal, the long-reigning king of the U.S. power sector, was officially dethroned by cheap, abundant natural gas in 2016. In 2018, natural gas fueled more than 60 percent of newly installed electric-generating capacity and accounted for 35 percentof total U.S. electricity generation. But that may be about to change. Natural gas faces intensifying pressure from wind and solar power combined with storage technologies. Renewable energy resources such as solar and wind are expected to be the fastest growing source of electricity generation, outpacing gas for at least the next two years. Electricity generation from utility-scale solar is expected to grow by 17 percent in 2020 and that from wind by 14 percent during the next two years”
“the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for some renewables, especially onshore wind and utility-scale solar, is lower than the cheapest natural gas in many cases, even without subsidies factored in.LCOE—measuring the average cost of electricity over the life of a project—is one commonly used metric to compare the costs of different generation technologies… Research has shown that incremental system costs from adding non-dispatchable renewable generation are minimal up to penetration rates of 80 percent or more as long as appropriate investments are made in transmission and storage.”
boney joe on Tue, 9th Jul 2019 6:13 am
The douche is back after an 8 hour mini-vacation. Talk about the definition of a pathetic life. DavyBitch aka “Real Green Deep Adaption Farmer” somehow spends at least 20 hours a day, 7 days a week here.
No wonder his old lady give him the heave ho. I mean, the vibrator gets old and tiresome after months then years at a time with a Old McDavy had an imaginary farm husband who is too busy fornicating with the computer screen/
Davy on Tue, 9th Jul 2019 6:13 am
“Peak Oil Review 8 July 2019”
https://tinyurl.com/y5bkpduh peak oil dot org
“It is now conventional wisdom that of the seven large shale oil basins in the US, all but the Permian in West Texas and New Mexico are at, or close to, their all-time peak production. Whether these basins will stay close to their peaks for many years or go into decline in the next few years remains to be seen. For now, all the growth-in-production eggs seem to be in the Permian Basin, which brought 400 new horizontal wells per month online in 2018 and now has some 22,000 wells in production. There is some room for optimism about growth in the Permian. New pipelines to move the Permian’s gas and oil to export terminals and other markets are due to open shortly and large, well-financed oil companies are taking over a larger share of the Permian’s production. As the financing dries up for the small and middle-sized shale oil drillers, the pace at which these properties fall into stronger hands that have revenue streams from other than selling shale oil may well determine the fate of the industry in the next few years.”
JuanP on Tue, 9th Jul 2019 6:14 am
OOps, I am JuanP and also Boney Joe:
“boney joe on Tue, 9th Jul 2019 6:13 am The douche is back after an 8 hour mini-vacation. Talk about the definition of a pathetic life. DavyBitch aka “Real Green Deep Adaption Farmer” somehow spends at least 20 hours a day, 7 days a week here.No wonder his old lady give him the heave ho. I mean, the vibrator gets old and tiresome after months then years at a time with a Old McDavy had an imaginary farm husband who is too busy fornicating with the computer screen/”
JuanP on Tue, 9th Jul 2019 6:18 am
JuanP, actually I am bring in hay and busy with many other projects. Real Green is obviously relevant if you are triggered by it through your other personality boney the joe. You really are a lame dumb fuck. Look at your stupid comment yesterday the one liner about they hate us for our freedoms?? WTF was that all about. What about your stupid sock conversation about Jesus and Jews last night. I love the fact you are so triggered by my posting relevant topics.
boney joe on Tue, 9th Jul 2019 6:19 am
Do you honestly believe anybody reads your endless fake conspiracy articles, and if anybody knows phony it’s the DavyTurd.
Let me guess, it makes you feel all powerful seeing your name posted next to fake word salad conspiracy theories-LOL.
Davy on Tue, 9th Jul 2019 6:23 am
I am spending less time on this lame unmoderated forum to concentrate on my own blog. I do want to thank all those who have attacked me with giving me material for growth. I have saved the best of my comments for my new blog. I have years worth of material. I have enjoyed moderating the worst of you and neutering your selfish useless agendas. I will still be here it is just I will be spending more time putting out a blog. I don’t expect much of a following with my blog. This is more a personal effort to assemble what I have learned over the last 10 years of formulating my REAL Green Deep Adaptation. Many of my ideas and lifestyles are not mine. I barrow what ever works. I do not claim anything either. It is an open source effort. Anyone can take what I am offering and use it however you want. Take my title if you like. For the stalkers here I hope you find my blog and visit the comment forum. It will be only lightly moderated to prevent juanpee identity theft and excessive cloggo spamming. LOL. There will be a prize for juanpee and annoymouse if you can stalk my blog. Double LOL. Anyway fuck my enemies and many thanks to those who contributed to my metamorphous.
I guess I could have joined the moderated section at PO dot com, but I knew I’d get my ass permanently banned. I’ll try not to let the door smack me up the backside on the way out.
Goodbye to ALL of you dumbasses.
JuanP on Tue, 9th Jul 2019 6:50 am
“boney joe on Tue, 9th Jul 2019 6:19 am”
“Do you honestly believe anybody reads your endless fake conspiracy articles, and if anybody knows phony it’s the DavyTurd.”
Juanpee, you read it and so does makato and annoy. It pleases me to trigger assholes. I really don’t care who reads what I post. I am appealing to a different group who reads but doesn’t comment. There are just a few regular posters here anymore and what is left is a joke. You have pretty well run off quality people and replaces them with your mentally dysfunctional pal group.
“Let me guess, it makes you feel all powerful seeing your name posted next to fake word salad conspiracy theories-LOL.”
I feel empowered to trigger you juanpee. It makes me happy your efforts at censorship are a failure.