Peak Oil is You
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Page added on June 13, 2015
Peak Oil in the Congressional record
Even the most ardent techno-optimists and economists admit there are limited supplies of fossil fuels, but that we don’t need to worry for a long time. It appears they have succeeded in convincing the government they’re right, because there are only 2 documents about planning for peak oil that I’m aware of at the federal level (several cities have peak oil task force recommendations):
- Hirsch, R. L., et al. February 2005. Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, mitigation, & risk management. Department of Energy.
- GAO. 2007. Crude oil. Uncertainty about future oil supply makes it important to develop a strategy for addressing a peak and Decline in Oil Production. U.S. Government Accountability Office.
Congress is very aware of our energy situation, they just don’t call it “peak oil” very often. You’ll get a lot of hits on “energy security” or “energy crisis” at http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/
The problem is that it is taking too long to do anything. It took so many years to finally raise CAFE standards.
Congress is overwhelmed by opposition from industries about energy efficiency if it would increase their costs. Many congressmen spout that we are now energy independent into the congressional record. So although there are grants being given for energy efficiency in transportation, buildings, and so on, it is taking far too much time. There’s a constant barrage of oilmen saying they can solve the energy crisis by drilling on federal land while at the same time fracking companies say they can make America energy independent if you don’t put any restrictions on us.
To straighten the confusion out, the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) is sometimes brought in. They write large reports that suggest additional research be done. Four or five years alter they revisit the project only to find that very few did their homework, such as the NAS 2014 Reducing the Fuel Consumption and Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles followup to the NAS 2010 Technologies and Approaches to Reducing the Fuel Consumption of Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles. Without the results asked for in 2010 it is hard to legislate new policies because there will be too much pushback from the trucking industry since more fuel efficient trucks are going to cost a lot more and the NAS can’t come back with “but you’ll save x dollars” since they don’t have the data to prove that.
You could consider Department of Energy and National Laboratory research on ethanol, wind, solar, and so on “planning”, but because only a few Energy Returned on Invested (EROI) papers have been published, mainly funded by private businesses such as the National Corn Growers Associations in non-peer-reviewed journals, we don’t know if the subsidies for ethanol, solar, wind, and so on are worthwhile, or if they’re corporate welfare. Especially since private companies don’t have to reveal cost and performance data, despite government subsidies, so scientists have to use models rather than real data to guess what the EROI might be (a notable exception is Prieto & Hall’s Spain’s Solar Revolution). If the EROI is really as high as some studies claim, why does construction of renewables plummet when subsidies end?
Peak Coal and Peak Natural Gas loom too. But plans to cope with declining fossil fuels aren’t being made, instead, the opposite is true. Most government, industry, and think-tank documents worry about how to cope with endless growth and increasing road congestion. Many discuss reducing greenhouse gases. Only a handful care about energy efficiency, and they appear to have had no effect given no increase in miles per gallon in transportation, nearly entirely dependent on oil, in the vehicles that matter most, the medium and heavy duty diesel combustion engines that do the actual work of society:
- NAS. 2010. Technologies and Approaches to Reducing the Fuel Consumption of Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles. National Academy of Sciences. 251 pages.
- DOE. December 2006. Roadmap and technical white papers…safely and cost-effectively move larger volumes of freight and greater numbers of passengers…dramatically reducing dependency on foreign oil. U.S. Department of Energy 21st century truck partnership.
There is a huge risk we’ll be caught with our pants down, that oil will decline sooner and faster than anticipated because the warnings from many geologists studying this issue are being ignored. And also from non-geological factors, such as war in the Middle East (where most of the remaining oil lies), exports decreasing from oil producing nations due to their growing populations and need for very-energy intensive water desalination plants, lack of water for Enhanced Oil Recovery, attacks on refineries and supertankers (especially in choke points), cyber-attack, the Alaska pipeline turning into a giant popsicle (as Waldman writes about in “Rust“), and so on.
Europe has shown that per capita use of energy can be cut in half with no reduction in lifestyle – in fact, their citizens live longer and have better health care and education than the United States.
Letting the Market decide how to spend finite amounts of fossil fuels will be seen in the future as the biggest waste of wealth in all of human history, and limits the time we have to explore the universe from microorganisms to dark matter.
The problem isn’t “running out of oil”, it is the rate of flow, the slowing down of amounts of oil available to society at a time when population is growing to 11 billion people. The flow will slow because the remaining oil is remote, nasty, gunky, deep and takes more energy to extract and refine, lowering its rate of flow and EROI.
There are reasons why peak oil isn’t being talked about by political, economic, and scientific leaders that I discuss at my website, www.energyskeptic.com. If peak oil is being planned for, it’s probably classified information within the defense and national security departments, because it is being treated as a disaster with the need for the national guard and other security forces to maintain order. Let’s just hope the plans include rationing to agriculture and other essential services, rather than by price, which is what the Market would prefer…
If renewables won’t work, then Congress is certainly not making the proper plans to go back to the 19th century and the age of wood.
Peak oil in the Congressional record 2014: 7 documents: 7 denials, 1 affirmation
Peak oil in the Congressional record 2013: 7 documents: 6 denials, 2 affirmations of peak oil
Alice Friedemann, energyskeptic.com
18 Comments on "Peak Oil in the Congressional record"
Plantagenet on Sat, 13th Jun 2015 5:17 pm
Interesting that the Obama administration failed to do even a single study of peak oil over the last seven years.
They are even more clueless then I thought.
GregT on Sat, 13th Jun 2015 6:10 pm
Clueless, planter, would be commissioning another report to tell them what they already know. Something that you would probably do, as clueless as you are.
Hubbert on Sat, 13th Jun 2015 7:58 pm
I would bet 99% of these idiots in congress would not know what Peak oil means.
Makati1 on Sat, 13th Jun 2015 8:03 pm
The US ‘government’ bots are all either bought by the elite or stupid. Or both.
We cannot go back the the ‘age of wood’ as it would be gone in a few years, and the last time I looked, trees take decades, if not centuries to grow back to usable size. Maybe, after a 90+% die-back of humans, could wood be a fuel of choice.
Money rules the world and the elite crowd wants to control all of it. EVERYTHING is about money these days.
Perk Earl on Sat, 13th Jun 2015 8:14 pm
http://ourfiniteworld.com/2015/06/09/why-eia-iea-and-bp-oil-forecasts-are-too-high/comment-page-3/#comments
I got that link from a post on Gail’s site. Claims the debt bubble not far from popping as evidenced by recently rising bond rates.
Apneaman on Sat, 13th Jun 2015 8:32 pm
Hubbert
88% of Congress On Gas Industry Payroll As Campaign Donations Hit Record Level –
See more at: http://www.occupy.com/article/88-congress-gas-industry-payroll-campaign-donations-hit-record-level#sthash.cefqKM9q.dpuf
dubya on Sat, 13th Jun 2015 9:58 pm
Proportion of people with science degrees in the US political system – about 2%.
Why again do politicians (90%+ lawyers) have an inability to understand most scientific concepts?
http://www.cbc.ca/radio/ideas/science-under-siege-part-1-1.3091552
Makati1 on Sat, 13th Jun 2015 10:10 pm
Speaking of Congress: For your Sunday afternnon reading… “What’s at stake here is nothing less than whether the future of the United States, and perhaps even of the world, will be democracy, or else fascism. That’s a lot…”
http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2015/06/the-two-contending-visions-of-world-government.html
GregT on Sat, 13th Jun 2015 10:41 pm
“U.S. President Barack Obama’s proposed ‘Trade’ deals are actually about whether the world is heading toward a dictatorial world government — a dictatorship by the hundred or so global super-rich who hold the controlling blocks of stock in the world’s largest international corporations — or else toward a democratic world government, which will be a global federation of free and independent states, much like the United States was at its founding, but global in extent. These are two opposite visions of world government; and Obama is clearly on the side of fascism, an international mega-corporate dictatorship, as will be documented here in the links, and explained in the discussion.”
Doesn’t get much more transplant than that, does it. Yet some still continue to support the system in the guise of nationalism, of ‘their’ flag.
GregT on Sat, 13th Jun 2015 10:42 pm
Sorry, transparent.
Plantagenet on Sun, 14th Jun 2015 1:31 am
Well ……that explains why Obama and the federal government aren’t doing any studies on the peak oil problem—— they are too busy faking dozens of studies to support the “free trade” deal obama is pushing that will all US corporations to ship more US jobs and US factories overseas.
Plantagenet on Sun, 14th Jun 2015 1:32 am
Well ……that explains why Obama and the federal government aren’t doing any studies on the peak oil problem—— they are too busy faking dozens of studies to support the “free trade” deal obama is pushing that will allow US corporations to ship more US jobs and US factories overseas.
Northwest Resident on Sun, 14th Jun 2015 1:38 am
Looks like Plant spent his Saturday sitting in front of the computer posting troll bait, idiot assertions, dim-witted analysis and numerous instances of the word “glut”. Same as every day. Plant, we know you don’t have a life. We know you’re a total loser. We know you’re an idiot and an obnoxious lout. But please, can’t you just fake it and PRETEND you have something better to do than sitting at your computer all day spreading digital manure? Just for one or two days? Maybe a month? Preferably for fucking ever.
Northwest Resident on Sun, 14th Jun 2015 1:51 am
Perk — I’ve read a lot of financial news recently that indicates the financial bubble is about to burst. Here’s one:
End of the Line! China and Germany Look Ready to Pop
http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/end-of-the-line-china-and-germany-look-ready-to-pop/
You probably already read that — just in case you missed it.
Of course, “they” have been saying the bubble is about to burst for a long time now, even before I started paying attention. But with sinking retail, gluts of ALL commodities (not just oil despite the Glutster’s incessant chirping), major outflows of capital from emerging markets, China’s epic slow-down, container freight plunging — the list goes on and on. Yeah, I feel it! This baby is about to blow!!!
Perk Earl on Sun, 14th Jun 2015 6:07 am
“Yeah, I feel it! This baby is about to blow!!!”
Agreed, lock n’ load, this baby’s ready to bust loose. Those of us following this peak oil process understand the debt bubble has to burst at some point. As we know from what happened with Lehman Bros. in 08, once a debacle gets rolling it happens fast. So stay frosty and keep some cash on hand, i.e. remain somewhat liquid because as we all know from playing Monopoly, when the cash is gone and the bills are due, things get mortgaged/sold at a huge discount.
Cloud9 on Sun, 14th Jun 2015 8:34 am
I suspect that Congress is merely a nuisance for the deep state. Consider Representative Hank Johnson’s concerns that Guam may capsize if too many Marines were stationed on the island. Is it any wonder that the real centers of power exclude these idiots from serious preparations? Therefore, most of Congress is not in the loop on actual national security threats. Don’t listen to what is being said. Look at what is being done. Ammunition purchases, prepositioning of assets, the refurbishing of Cheyenne Mountain the movement of the deep state to Utah, all of these things point to preparation for systemic collapse.
hiruitnguyse on Sun, 14th Jun 2015 11:43 am
Oh me:
http://resourceinsights.blogspot.com/2015/06/no-bp-u-s-did-not-surpass-saudi-arabia.html
…should have known that nail polish remover was included in those numbers.
Nony on Sun, 14th Jun 2015 12:40 pm
NGLs have some oil substitution characteristics, particularly butane, but if you want to make the argument that they are more of a wet gas than a light oil, I am fine with that. For one thing at STP, they ARE gases, not liquids.
Lease condensate is a different barrel of fish. It is liquid hydrocarbon and needs to be processed in a refinery, not a gas plant. The components go into standard liquid product (mostly gasoline blending).
Finally. light oils (EF at 47 or Bakken/WTI at 42) are even more “oily” than true lease condensate (API of 55-70). LTO goes up a refinery crude distillation unit and get processed into products. Yeah, if you have a coker or a cat cracker that is built for heavy API oils, you underutilize that. But light oil is oil…ask any refinery and they will tell you that is how they think of it. And light oil still trades at a premium to heavy oil, because refineries with less capital investment can process it (don’t need a coker).
Even lease condensate was traditionally more expensive than WTI, let alone heavy oil! It is only recently with the glut in the US and with the export restrictions that you see condensate priced below WTI.
http://eprinc.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/EPRINC-Condensate-Primer.pdf
(see page 3)