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Page added on April 15, 2016
Peak Oil: Are We Not Better Than This? Pt 3
Peak Oil: Are We Not Better Than This? Pt 3
Apr 15
Is Your Community Prepared?, Peak Oil, Peak Oil: Worth Pondering
GHB091215A
We will have to transition to a post-fossil-fuel economy eventually, either out of wisdom or chaos [1]
Discussions about the future of fossil fuel production and supply have to become more than a matter of which side is reporting the facts—or absence of same—accurately. Peak oil’s message is rather simple once all of the fluff and distractions are set aside. It’s about a recognition that we are dealing with a finite resource used extensively for decades upon decades by ever-increasing numbers for ever-increasing needs.
Finite anything has built-in limitations. With respect to the primary resource responsible for the magnificent technologies and astounding levels of progress mankind has experienced over the course of more than a century, it’s critical to keep that limitation in mind. Fossil fuels—oil, primarily—are now being called upon to do more, for more people, in more ways, and in more areas of the world [current decline in demand and oversupply duly acknowledged].
This finite resource is not replenishing itself, notwithstanding the goofy outlier assertions to the contrary. Likewise, the current economic and corporate conditions are hardly conducive to finding and producing it inexpensively, or quickly, or in abundance.
But all is not well with the oil sector. Between 2000 and 2012, $2.6 Trillion USD was invested in oil infrastructure CAPEX, with no gain in oil production (this data includes shale oil production in USA).¹ Global crude and condensate production has plateaued since approximately 2005. The problem with this is world population is 13.8% larger now than in 2005 (7.4 billion people 5/2/2016 vs 6.5 billion in 2005). Increasingly unconventional sources of oil are being used to meet demand, where these sources are expensive to extract and struggle to meet the desired quantities. [2]
For all the legitimate accolades directed to the production gains generated by hydraulic fracturing and the increased supply courtesy of tight oil, limitations are baked into that cake as well. There’s no question that the technological advances have been both astounding and vital to oil exploration and production efforts. That’s clearly evident in the results produced from shale formations here in the United States.
Ticking off the list of drawbacks, however—rapid decline rates; fewer production “sweet spots”; water usage concerns; environmental hazards; damage to infrastructure, etc., etc.—may spoil the Happy Talk messages conveyed to an unsuspecting public, but ignoring them certainly isn’t benefiting the public, either. More information is a good thing….
[W]e have no replacement energy source that is as calorically dense as oil. It is simply not practical to replace oil as an energy source and maintain current energy demands. [3]
So now what?
Shall we continue to barrel full-steam ahead arguing with/over/past one another on talking points which in the end amount to little more than distractions and irrelevancies? Or do we collectively come to a recognition that despite the rhetoric, oil is still a finite resource? Statements supporting ideologies are not facts, and avoiding those facts out of fear or personality inclinations or in support of one’s “tribe”—political or otherwise—will not change the reality of what happens to a finite resource called upon to do more, more often, in greater quantities, for more people. Something will have to give.
That’s not liberal orthodoxy. It’s math supported by the realities of oil production.
So for all the chatter about trillions of barrels here, there, and everywhere, unless advocates of that argument are prepared [finally] to explain the details about how; when; how much; how expensive; how soon; how easy and a host of related considerations, it’s not much more than mindless chatter intended to appease and/or close off discussion. Convenient, but it solves nothing; it proves nothing, it answers nothing.
We need to move past that. We have a choice to make our future at least a bit easier [a lot is the goal, of course]. We can also choose to make it more difficult by failing to deal with the unpleasant facts and then foregoing opportunities to make the invaluable contributions both sides are equipped to do.
Worth at least considering before we resume the Left-Right wars?
22 Comments on "Peak Oil: Are We Not Better Than This? Pt 3"
penury on Fri, 15th Apr 2016 4:07 pm
The entire population of the earth needs to understand the meaning to society of an oil shrinkage, and then approach the end times, an absence of oil,with proper utilization humans may be able to extend their tenure for a further five years or so.
onlooker on Fri, 15th Apr 2016 5:27 pm
The longer we are around the less likely much of any life will be around in the longer term. Yes I have become jaded and cynical. haha.
makati1 on Fri, 15th Apr 2016 8:39 pm
“Are We Not Better Than This?”
Answer: NO!
Penury, there are billions of humans that have no idea there is an oil problem. Or really care. The ones who use very little or none. They would not miss it or would adapt quickly.
The 1st world will be hit first and the hardest. They have the most energy slaves to lose. That is where the real pain will be felt.
I don’t see any humans on the earth, live ones I mean, by 2100. And the whole thing will collapse in the next few years, if my reading of current events is even close.
The real thing we should be worried about and preparing for is not loss of oil but loss of stable climate like Onlooker states. THAT is what is going to wipe the slate clean and the big eraser is already sliding across the planet.
onlooker on Fri, 15th Apr 2016 8:50 pm
Exactly. See the problem has gone beyond our own little civilization. It is about the Commons – Nature. If some of our kind do make it through the bottleneck what type of world will they inherit? A damaged and denuded Earth will afford the survivors scant chance to get by, to live. I for one know I would not like to survive in such a world. So, this type of world is looking more and more like the one posterity will inherit. Not just AGW, but all the pollution and contamination that abounds and that we continue to burden the Biosphere with.
Boat on Fri, 15th Apr 2016 10:06 pm
onlooker,
http://weburbanist.com/2015/01/11/worlds-largest-indoor-farm-is-100-times-more-productive/
http://www.psfk.com/2015/10/largest-indoor-farm-in-north-america-farmedhere-vertical-farms.html
In the midst of your doom do you keep up with potential answers?
Apneaman on Fri, 15th Apr 2016 10:09 pm
“The five marks of the Roman decaying culture:
Concern with displaying affluence instead of building wealth;
Obsession with sex and perversions of sex;
Art becomes freakish and sensationalistic instead of creative and original;
Widening disparity between very rich and very poor;
Increased demand to live off the state.”
― Edward Gibbon
Sound familiar?
Boat on Fri, 15th Apr 2016 10:20 pm
ape,
Sometimes the richest over produce a product and cause wealth distribution on a massive scale. One barrel at a time. Did the Romans have such a product?
Apneaman on Fri, 15th Apr 2016 11:47 pm
Boat, another nonsensical comment. Spare me your boot licking of the rich. The earth produced the oil and some long dead clever apes came up with a method to extract it. Has nothing to do with anyone alive today.
I see you still haven’t bothered to get that library card and put it to use yet eh?
The Romans were a slave powered society and they had many problems with what planty would call a glut of slaves. They were also around for about two thousand years, so y’all ain’t got nothing on them. Some of their roads, bridges and aqueducts are still standing today and will be after all modern man’s has crumbled or finished crumbling.
Boat, did you get hit by any of that softball sized hail the other day? 1 week of AGW jacked up weather and Texas has another 2 billion in damages. How long you think you can keep that up?
Another billion dollar week of U.S. severe weather losses
“The past week is set to result in another economic loss of over $1 billion, due to severe convective and thunderstorm weather in the U.S., where the resulting strong winds and hail, with insurance industry losses in the hundreds of millions, according to Aon.
Large hail image from D-7 RoofingThe month of March saw over $2 billion of U.S. severe weather insurance industry losses, due to thunderstorms, tornadoes, hail and flooding and April has continued where that month left off.”
http://www.artemis.bm/blog/2016/04/15/another-billion-dollar-week-of-u-s-severe-weather-losses-aon-2/
Looks like the insurance industry’s days are numbered. Gonna be lot’s of folks whining to Big Government for a bail out then. They will be broken soon enough too. Are you looking forward to another record breaking fire season, boat? Or what you called “a few fires”. Last season was about 150 million a week, so there was many billions more spent.
Earlier today I checked up on the toll of South Carolina’s AGW jacked floods last Oct. I always wait 6 months as the estimates keep growing. Remember they only got hit with a remnant of a hurricane – the eye of the storm was 600 miles out to sea.
South Carolina, 6 Months After Floods: ‘Rough Road Ahead’
The historic rains and floods that battered South Carolina in October claimed 19 lives, destroyed more than $1 billion dollars in homes and property, and left thousands struggling to recoup.
Many in the region are still trying to regain their balance. Here are a few of their stories.
http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/south-carolina-months-floods-rough-road-ahead-38340862
Despite progress, SCDOT still working on flood damaged roads
http://wach.com/news/local/despite-progress-scdot-still-working-on-flood-damaged-roads
“SC DOT are still working to repair 25 bridges, but 21 of those have already been assigned to contractors.”
“Earlier this week, three bridges on Bluff Road in Richland County were closed after an inspection.
SCDOT officials believe that October’s floods and more flooding in December washed away portions of the stream beds.
Additional damages have been sustained since the historic flooding to roadways, pipes, culverts and bridges.
“While we are disappointed that our infrastructure continues to suffer from the historic flood and impact the local communities, we are pleased that our inspections discovered these issues before the motoring public was placed at risk,” said Hall.
Currently, 23 roads remained closed in the state from the floods and the repair damge is projected at $137 million, with $49 million coming out of the state’s pocket.”
http://wach.com/news/local/despite-progress-scdot-still-working-on-flood-damaged-roads
Let me know if you’re having trouble keeping up Boat – I got your back.
BTW, you have some more rough weather coming your way soon, so look alive.
Boat on Sat, 16th Apr 2016 1:15 am
ape,
Roads, social programs, military, how the nation responds to climate change etc are political. Things change generally when it’s cheaper to do so. 5 states over 20 percent renewable. Someday solar will explode. The tech just isn’t there yet but getting close.
GregT on Sat, 16th Apr 2016 1:30 am
Kevin,
The “nation” only makes up around 5% of the world’s population. In other words, irrelevant in the big scheme of things.
If you aren’t willing to be truthful, and find the need to continue to keep spreading complete and utter BS, then please do everyone here a favour, and go away.
Your continual nonsense is doing nothing at all to help the situation, and only adds stupidity on top of an already dire predicament.
Boat on Sat, 16th Apr 2016 1:54 am
Try MSM. China, Europe, US, Japan etc. are beginning to adjust to climate change. Russia, maybe not. You do realize your and my opinion don’t amount to shyt. We make no impact on anything.
You Canadians and a handful of of other anti American yahoos are pure entertainment. I hope your dire situation improves for you.
theedrich on Sat, 16th Apr 2016 3:56 am
Let’s face it about the Canucks: they live in a tyranny which allows no free speech. If they so much as burble a word unauthorized by their principate, they soon find the KGB (in the form of the Royal Canadian Mounted Police) knocking at their doors. It is the same in almost every other country — European nations in particular — which sucks off of the U.S. Subjects of those countries are kept in line by their own regime-enforced MSM (controlled by you-know-who), even while they imagine they are “free” — but only to wail about America so that their minders will approve of their meaningless jabber.
Apneaman on Sat, 16th Apr 2016 9:48 am
douch, you have made that claim about Canada more times than I can count, but have yet to provide even 1 piece of supporting evidence – same as all that shit you spew. How do you know? I bet you are just repeating something you heard from one of your retard Ayn Rand bum buddies. Lets have a link so you can show everyone how many Canadians have been oppressed, like Chelsea Manning, Edward Snowden, Julian Assange and a bunch of other truth tellers in the US and around the world. There must be many examples. Maybe your pet lizard will “morphicly resonate” the information to you?
Looks like you have some bum buddies up here Douch bag. Another desperate gang of white losers with too much anger and free time, but never any time to acquire new/any skills – no, no, no that would require effort, discipline and delayed gratification.
Soldiers of Odin, Europe’s Notorious Anti-Immigration Group, Beginning to Form Cells in Canada
http://www.vice.com/en_ca/read/soldiers-of-odin-europes-notorious-anti-immigration-group-beginning-to-form-cells-in-canada
Let me know when your coming up to visit your buddies, Douch. I’ll have a special welcome waiting for you.
What have you done to further your cause? Where is your conviction to go with your certainty? I mean you hide behind an anonymous name and a cartoon avatar and expect to be taken seriously? Why not come out of the shadows? Afraid to get hurt? Why not stand up and take a risk like Gandhi, Malcolm X, or MLK? Those were men. Men who put their life at risk for their beliefs and paid the price. You just a scared litter boy in a grown body trying to stir up hate in others in the hopes they will do something you ain’t got the guts to do yourself.
Fucking coward!
peakyeast on Sat, 16th Apr 2016 10:19 am
Definition of Sustainability before industrial revolution: Indefinitely
Definition of Sustainability after industrial revolution and developing advanced mathematics: 4-8 years
makati1 on Sat, 16th Apr 2016 6:32 pm
Ap, maybe Thee doesn’t know how to add a reference address to his statements. Like some others here who like to spout bullshit with no backup. Kinda like government bots. I could tag hundreds of non US sponsored articles referring to my comments, but I know they would not read them anyway. Or are not intelligent enough to understand them. Then again, their programming has been successful and they don’t believe anything NOT on US MSM.
theedrich on Sun, 17th Apr 2016 1:38 am
The man-ape loves his “libel laws” ardently. He knows very well that many, many White Canadians have been shut down, fined, lost their jobs or even imprisoned for speech which offends the Canuck royalty. Teachers, professors and others, if not actually penalized, are intimidated and threatened if they come close to straying off the PC reservation. Canada simply does not permit the free talk in radio and TV or print of the type allowed in the U.S. In the short space of a half-century, Canada has been turned from a decent White country into a pig sty for muds. And it is of course now run by PC swine exulting in their genosuicidism. Sort of like the man-ape.
Apneaman on Sun, 17th Apr 2016 2:19 am
I don’t know of any, but since you are the expert on Canadian case law, lets see the links to prove all these imprisoned people and job losers. Here is your chance, yet again, to show me up. All you need to do is provide the evidence to back your claims. I have never voted and do not follow all that bullshit, but I bet if the people put it to a vote, 99.9% would not let you in the country. If I did vote, I would vote to pull you out from behind your mommy’s skirts and put the boots to you. Cull.
peakyeast on Sun, 17th Apr 2016 6:20 am
edrich – its a monumental error to think the worlds problems has anything to do with race or a particular culture.
Its HUMAN culture and nature that is the problem – which is basically the same across the board.
Ands it really doesnt matter much which 1% of the population that survives – if they are not educated and screened for rabbitlike reproductive behavior. – Suitable survivors are likely to exist everywhere.
But then we dont know how to select for the correct traits for a humane and intelligent humanity (greed and warmongering is certainly not real intelligence and quite probably mental disorders). – In our immense collective stupidity we cant even agree to select or reduce. Thus we go to our common doom in order to be politically correct and “humane”.
JuanP on Sun, 17th Apr 2016 7:48 am
If theeDouche was smart enough he would realize white people are as defective as non white people. His incapacity to do this is a clear sign of his limited intelligence and lack of mental health. Put simply, he is a deranged fool!
Dooma on Sun, 17th Apr 2016 10:21 am
Alright Mr Mod, I know that I step on people’s toes at times, that is the nature of debate.
But seriously, can you please get rid of that racist idiot who seems to be like a stuck record, coming out with the same white power crap over and over again?
I don’t think that I am alone in wanting to see the back of this person.
So what about it hey?
peakyeast on Mon, 18th Apr 2016 2:32 am
@boat: I think most the people here in Peakoil.com knows about indoor farming. – Hydroponics, aeroponics, polytunnel and so forth.
Many of us has even tried or are active using one or more of the methods.
theedrich on Mon, 18th Apr 2016 5:40 am
Amusing, how many haters of Whites infest these sites. One would think they had all been trained by the Bronfmans and Georg Sörös. Of course, at the end of a civilization, psychopaths who hate that civilization spring up like mushrooms, even though produced and supported by it. It is that kind of human waste that, more than anything else, signals the Untergang of a system that has exceeded its planetary limits and excreted such droppings in the process. We can now look forward to their end, when they will all be flushed down the cosmic commode.