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Page added on March 16, 2014
Orlov: Is anyone really in control in Ukraine?
[While everyone is concentrating on the referendum in Crimea, let’s not lose sight of what’s happening in the rest of (formerly independent) Ukraine. As we already know, the government in Kiev is dead broke; the aid that is forthcoming from the US is barely enough to cover its debt to Russia’s Gazprom, for natural gas. Ukraine’s bond yield has spiked to 50% while $15 billion of these bonds mature and have to be rolled over this year.
A lot has been made of the Russian and Belarussian troops massing all around Ukraine and in Crimea, but so far little has been heard of the state of the military within Ukraine itself. But now it appears that Ukraine’s military (which has never been involved in any armed conflict anywhere and is poorly trained and poorly armed) is mostly on the Russian side already, and, in any case, not willing to follow orders from Kiev. It also appears that the National Guard goon squads being hastily organized by the government in Kiev may be effective at intimidating civilians, but that they won’t be much of a military force.
This information comes from a well-positioned source. There is a Spanish-speaking air traffic controller working at the Borispol International Airport in Kiev, who has been tweetting in Spanish and giving a blow-by-blow account of the goings on in the air and on the ground, along with some useful commentary. What follows is a summary of some of the recent tweets. Many thanks to Francisco for putting it together.
Here is what I see as the best case scenario for Ukraine: Russian and Ukrainian militaries fraternize and merge without a single shot fired, followed by a joint mop-up operation against the nationalist thugs. Once the nationalists’ ability to intimidate the populace is neutralized, the country can be reorganized, ideally as a federative structure that supports local languages, dialects and cultures.]
The Ukrainian military are by and large refusing to follow orders from he government. Many if not the majority of them are incredibly angry. Some generals have openly declared that they will not follow orders from some foreign-imposed government. The chief of the Air Force is a major problem for the government: so far he has flatly refused to fly any missions at all, and has grounded all the planes. He says that he will not follow orders except from a freely elected governent. Until such a time, he will follow only his own orders.
In this ATC’s opinion, this attitude within the military is a good thing, because there would already be lots of casualties had they had followed their orders. It looks like at least half, and probably more, of the military feels much more affinity toward their Russian colleages than towards the Ukrainian Nationalists who are nominally in power. The government is frantically trying to recruit and organize a National Guard, with whatever western help they can get. There is no equipment or money in the country.
The problem with this National Guard is that it’s being recruited based on an ideology of nationalistic bigotry and hatred rather than any useful aptitude. The people in Kiev are much more afraid of the nationalists and the National Guard being created than of the military. It appears that the sentiment towards the Russians is in general very friendly, that most Ukrainians consider Russians to be their brothers. The exception is the ultra-nationalistic faction, which superficially seems to be gaining a lot of power through intimidation.
28 Comments on "Orlov: Is anyone really in control in Ukraine?"
Davy, Hermann, MO on Sun, 16th Mar 2014 8:17 pm
I like Orlov and respect his understanding of the Ukrainian situation yet, is Orlov an objective voice in this situation? Orlov has always appeared to me to be objective. If what he says is true then game over for the West’s ambitions and the Ukrainian Nationalists short stay in Kiev. The Ukrainian military opinion will prevail. As I have said before Ukraine belongs in the Russian embrace for practical reasons. The West will never be able to bank role the Ukraine. The cost of integrating the Ukraine into the EU style economy and political system are so enormous I feel it nothing but fantasy at this point. Europe is already grumbling about Greece.
rockman on Sun, 16th Mar 2014 8:29 pm
Davy – I would go one big step further: either Orlov is a big liar or he’s the only one putting out a story that seems to fit what we’ve seen so far. My guess is that he’s giving an accurate picture. As we stay longer in this somewhat static situation it would add credibility to his story IMHO.
John Mc Grath on Sun, 16th Mar 2014 8:36 pm
Nice bit of Kremlin Media-Ops/Psy-Ops
J-Gav on Sun, 16th Mar 2014 9:25 pm
No sane person in the EU wants to see Ukraine become another costly bail-out, basket case member. This is at odds with the US/NATO-command strategic position which is basically “Let’s keep the Cold War going and try to piss Russia off at every opportunity.”
All the EU wants, or needs, is a reliable transit country for natgas to come in through … Some may conclude I’m kowtowing to Putin by voicing such an opinion. Hardly. He’s a kleptocratic thug like all of our elites are kleptocratic thugs. Certainly no worse than the neo-nazis now attempting to extend their power in the country.
baptised on Sun, 16th Mar 2014 11:03 pm
Just thinking out loud, not saying this is correct. But is their a chance, that USA & NATO are loving this behind closed doors. Now they have their excuse to put sanctions on Russia. USA &NATO must know their in decline, even though they are much larger than Russia. Russia is on an incline and sanctions can help keep them 2nd tier state?
J-Gav on Sun, 16th Mar 2014 11:26 pm
Baptised – I don’t see how they could be loving it. Their ‘illegal referendum’ gambit at the UN failed. Logically, since why should Kosovo (just one example) have been allowed to vote on their independence without consultation with Serbia (of which they were previously a part) and NOT the Crimeans?
Seems it’s about 93% in favor of rapprochement with Russia? Don’t see how that can be construed as a victory for U.S. policy in the region. More like a slap in the face of our “haircut in search of a brain,” aka John Kerry.
Davy, Hermann, MO on Sun, 16th Mar 2014 11:39 pm
Gav said – No sane person in the EU wants to see Ukraine become another costly bail-out, basket case member. This is at odds with the US/NATO-command strategic position which is basically “Let’s keep the Cold War going and try to piss Russia off at every opportunity.”
Gav, I agree the bureaucrats in Brussels have plenty on their plate and little gain from a basket case member. On the US/NATO strategic position I wonder if it is so much lets keep the cold war going as just a great opportunity to get back at Putin for being a spoiler and meddler. Probably a little of both.
Baptized said – Just thinking out loud, not saying this is correct. But is their a chance, that USA & NATO are loving this behind closed doors
Baptized, what I and Gav said jives with your thoughts. There is no love between the Western leadership and Putin.
Joe Clarkson on Mon, 17th Mar 2014 1:27 am
I generally trust Orlov’s opinion on matters in that part of the world, but several things do not make sense. If the military is leaning toward the Russian sympathizers and much of the population, particularly in the East is sympathetic to Russia, why would Yanukovych have to flee Kiev and go into hiding? Why couldn’t he have declared martial law and had the military regain control?
It seems to me that there has to be massive popular support for the supposed “nationalist thugs” to overthrow a government that actually had military backing. My guess is that the military is either pro-nationalist or neutral. I have my doubts that they will welcome the Russian army with open arms.
Jimmy on Mon, 17th Mar 2014 3:32 am
JC- to avoid more bloodshed. Duh.
Makati1 on Mon, 17th Mar 2014 3:42 am
Interesting article on the topic of Russia and the Ukraine:
http://www.doomsteaddiner.net/blog/2014/03/16/the-death-of-debt/
The first bit is common knowledge but the last part may be radical for some here.
Northwest Resident on Mon, 17th Mar 2014 4:44 am
Makati1 — I love reading RE over at Doomstead Diner. What you posted is a very entertaining article. While RE is always interesting, I don’t agree with a lot of what he speculates on. In this particular article, I think he is dead on with the points he makes about the economy, but I seriously doubt that the Ukraine situation will end up leading to another world war with China and Russia allied against America and Europe. Too much to lose, too little to gain. There just isn’t enough energy left to fight large scale wars and prop up a dying BAU at the same time, and no valuable resources remaining to fight for that haven’t already been plundered. RE’s best point in this article, I think, is the one he makes on how declining resources severely affect credit/debt issuance and the economy as a result. His overall tone — we are toast — is one that I tend to find highly probable.
Stilgar Wilcox on Mon, 17th Mar 2014 4:47 am
http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/03/17/ukraine-crisis-russia-kiselyov-idINDEEA2G01G20140317
Russia can turn US to radioactive ash – Kremlin-backed journalist
(Reuters) – A Kremlin-backed journalist issued a stark warning to the United States about Moscow’s nuclear capabilities on Sunday as the White House threatened sanctions over Crimea’s referendum on union with Russia.
“Russia is the only country in the world that is realistically capable of turning the United States into radioactive ash,” television presenter Dmitry Kiselyov said on his weekly current affairs show. Behind him was a backdrop of a mushroom cloud following a nuclear blast.
Never thought I’d hear hyperbole like that, but things are tense in this period of extending the peak plateau by any means possible.
Keith_McClary on Mon, 17th Mar 2014 5:54 am
Stilgar- don’t we hear hyperbole like that all the time from US nutbars?
Stilgar Wilcox on Mon, 17th Mar 2014 9:18 am
Some nutty stuff sure, but thermo-nuke to ashes? Got a link?
Makati1 on Mon, 17th Mar 2014 9:56 am
NWR, since when are wars logical? The US would not be the first empire to bet it all on a war and then lose. If you think Russia is going to back down, forget it. And if you think there is too much to lose, put the shoe on the other foot and think about what the US would do if Russia was building bases around the US border and fomenting regime change in Canada and Mexico so they could trap the US totally.
Those nukes were not made to lay around and rust forever. They WILL be used by one of the big three eventually. It is only a question of which one fires first. At least that is what I see happening. We car coming to the crunch point in history and it may be the end.
Arthur on Mon, 17th Mar 2014 10:53 am
Orlov: Is anyone really in control in Ukraine?
Of course there is: the Jewish prime minister ‘Yats’, handpicked by Victoria Nudelman (‘Nuland’) and John Kohn (‘Kerry’). Meaning that as we speak, the State Department is in control of Kiev-Ukraine.
Next logical step for the State Department: let Yats order the mobilization of the Ukrainian army in order to start a civil war in the Ukraine, that should lead to WW3:
http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/krimkrise-der-liveticker-vom-montag-17-3-2014-a-958617.html
Or is this too provocative a statement for the sensitive ears of the likes of bobinget and other (crypto) empire apologists and closet exceptionalists?
Mapping:
1939————2014
Danzig———-Crimea
Poland———-Ukraine
Germany———Putin Russia
Japan———–China
Italy———–Iran
USA————-USA
UK————–UK
France———-France
Questions?
WW2 was the gang rape of Germany by the US, USSR, France, Britain (+ Canada and Australia), Holland, Belgium and Norway.
For the average television watcher this is an outrageous statement, but if you spend 2 years of your time figuring out what really happened in 1939, you will arrive at the same conclusion. And I am talking about the elites, not the average citizens. The majority of the Americans and even British were pro-Hitler and against war, like they are now.
But now in 2014, the cards of Anglosphere are not as good as they were in 1939. America is tired of wars. America is about to financially implode, unlike 1939. America is becoming a third world country. Russia is now anti-America, unlike 1939 and China is much, much bigger than Japan, that had merely an economy of 10% of that of the US, at the time that Roosevelt engineered the Japanese attack against PH in the Japanese desperate search to look for other oil sources than the US, that had imposed an oil-embargo against Japan, precisely to provoke the Japanese to deal the first blow, in order to circumvent Congress, that at the time still represented the interests of the American people, rather than being what it is today: “Israeli occupied territory” (quote Pat Buchanan).
And there is the internet, bypassing the MSM, probably the most crucial factor against the NWO. And the European population is majority pro-Putin, unlike the media and the 1968 generation that is in charge, but not for much longer and will suffer the same fate as their commie colleagues in Eastern Europe in 1989. Eastern Europe was fed-up with Moscow imposed communism, as is Western Europe fed-up with Washington imposed multiculturalism.
What we are going to witness is the death of globalism, perfectly in line with the developing situation of resource depletion. WW2 was a tragedy, a drama, WW3 probably will end up as a farce because of lack of willing soldiers to fight it.
Davy, Hermann, MO on Mon, 17th Mar 2014 11:59 am
Stilgar – Some nutty stuff sure, but thermo-nuke to ashes? Got a link?
Stilgar, No sh*T Sherlock! Great point, You don’t here talk like that except by the fringe at the bottom who don’t have more than a blog for airing their views.
N/R and Makati response – Yea N/R in full agreement with you. War in this situation is a no-gainer no brainer. “Now” if this were in the ME and the bulk of the last remaining cheap conventional oil at risk then yea very possible for a death spiral.
MAKATI said – Those nukes were not made to lay around and rust forever. They WILL be used by one of the big three eventually. It is only a question of which one fires first. At least that is what I see happening. We car coming to the crunch point in history and it may be the end.
Makati any time I hear Nuks mentioned in the context of a conflict I laugh. There are a no winner for either side and all sides know this. They are in fact a liability because they cannot be used without losing. The EMP noise I hear here on this board is also mute. EMP can be done but the effects will be reciprocal and the retaliation total. If mad men take over, which is possible these days, maybe we will see the end. It is highly unlikely we will see you scenario Makati.
Arthur said – Next logical step for the State Department: let Yats order the mobilization of the Ukrainian army in order to start a civil war in the Ukraine, that should lead to WW3:
–WW2 was the gang rape of Germany by the US, USSR, France, Britain (+ Canada and Australia), Holland, Belgium and Norway.
–The majority of the Americans and even British were pro-Hitler and against war, like they are now.
— European population is majority pro-Putin,
Good fiction for Arthur’s upcoming series “WW3 and me”. A fictional account of a rewrite of WW2 history with a stunning remake on current events. Very lively and provocative and a “pulp fiction” history of those on the fringe.
steveo on Mon, 17th Mar 2014 1:13 pm
I’m finding these threats of “NATO economic sanctions” to be particularly amusing. Most of the NATO countries are getting something like 30% of their natural gas supply from Russia.
It’s a little bit like my saying I’m going to punish my local gas company by not paying my bill, the company cuts off my gas, I freeze and it doesn’t hurt the company one bit.
rockman on Mon, 17th Mar 2014 3:23 pm
steveo – And not all EU countries fit that profile: Germany gets about 25% of the Russian NG while all of the eastern EU countries get 25% and the western ones get 10%. The UK, France and Italy pull in 10%$ each or less. And Turkey rounds it out with about 20%. Given that Germany is the strongest EU economic link at the moment it isn’t a surprise that they’ve remained relatively quiet on the Ukraine situation.
Arthur on Mon, 17th Mar 2014 3:45 pm
Don’t forget oil:
http://www.spiegel.de/fotostrecke/oelmacht-iran-mit-wem-teheran-geschaefte-macht-fotostrecke-77889-4.html
Germany gets more than 50% of it’s oil from the east.
Natural gas (source OECD):
EU 31%
Germany 39%
Hungary 70%
Bulgarien, Slovakia, Finland, Poland 100%
And now the EU has implemented token ‘sanctions’: 21 Russians are no longer welcome, mostly Duma members and 8 Crimeans. Accounts have been frozen. Putin will be impressed.
rockman on Mon, 17th Mar 2014 5:13 pm
Arthur – Putin is not only impressed but responsive too:
The upper house of Russia’s parliament is mulling measures allowing property and assets of European and US companies to be confiscated….“We have no doubts that it clearly corresponds to European standards,” “The recent events in Cyprus spring to mind, where the confiscation of assets was the main demand made by the European Union in return for economic aid.”
An adviser Putin said that authorities would issue general advice to dump US government bonds if Russian companies and individuals were targeted by sanctions over events in Ukraine. According to US Treasury data from the end of 2013, Russian investments in US government bonds total around $139 billion.
Arthur on Mon, 17th Mar 2014 6:06 pm
Yes rockman, I wonder if EU fools realize what they are up against if they plan to really take on Russia.
Meanwhile, ‘dna-level good guy’ Mikhail Gorbatchev has embraced the outcome of the Crimean referendum, quite a moral blow against the Yats-Nuland-Kerry triumvirate and their let’s-use-the-Ukraine-to-hurt-Russia posse.
I wonder what energy advisers these EU blowhards have when they fantasize about looking for alternatives for Russian oil and gas. The only way to do that price neutral, is to push away clients from say ME gas and oil. Or hey, why not compete with the US for oil and gas from Venezuela or Canada! In other words: impossible. There is no flexibility in the market, so there is no alternative for the strong energy ties between Europe and Russia. It won’t be long before Europeans start to realize that this crisis is not in their interest.
P.S.: this is one of the interesting blogs I follow related to the Ukrainian crisis:
http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.nl/
Not sure who the writer is, probably American, considering the fluency of his English.
Northwest Resident on Mon, 17th Mar 2014 6:36 pm
As we draw ever nearer to the eventual point of collapse, don’t be surprised if TPTB cook up threats of conflict and world war to scare the stuffings out of the mindless masses, all the better to manipulate them and keep them under control. It won’t be the first time this age-old trick has been used by governments for exactly that purpose. Also, as the point of collapse approaches, it would benefit TPTB to have a valid (cooked-up) excuse to start drafting young, restless citizens into the military — better than have them rioting in the streets. With the myriad of intense pressures associated with the collapse that we all know is coming, conflicts and wars of words as we are seeing in the “Ukraine situation” might begin to make a little more sense.
rockman on Mon, 17th Mar 2014 7:26 pm
Arthur – I suspect the only fools there might be in the EU are folks taking the bluster of their leaders seriously. How could TPTB in Germany not think about how much their citizens and industries depend upon Russian fossil fuels when they first open their eyes in the morning. These days I would imagine it’s all they’re thinking about when they are staring at the ceiling trying to fall asleep
jukka on Mon, 17th Mar 2014 8:08 pm
well orlov is basically saying the same as the official version of russia of the events. or in fact the strict official version of russia is even milder than orlov’s. so if orlov is right then the western press spreads lies and only the press in moscow knows the truth.
i think it’s funny to refer to some guy who tweets in spanish as the ultimate source of the true nature of events.
anyway take a look at this:
http://rt.com/politics/russian-left-international-socialist-054/
maybe orlov should join Fair Russia and socialist international? or maybe he is already a member?
Arthur on Mon, 17th Mar 2014 8:13 pm
Indeed…
eurointelligence . com/news-details/article/german-business-worried-about-sanctions.html?no_cache=1
The idea that Germany – with its dependence on Russian gas – could impose real sanctions against Vladimir Putin (i.e. stopping the gas) seems a triumph of hope over experience. Frankfurter Allgemeine has a story reminding us that there would be massive opposition to sanctions from among German industry, where fears are on the rise about Russian retaliatory measures.
It’s clamant to see how weak EU politics is vis a vis America. The EU has zero interest in who owns the Crimea, yet they behave as if the Red Army is about to take over eastern Germany again. Absolutely nobody questions the lead the US has in this respect. Only politicians I used to respect but are retired now warn against antagonizing Russia: Schmidt, Kohl and Schroeder. They had enough strength to refuse participation in Iraq, but now, with Schroeder and Chirac gone, it is servility wherever you look.
Now there is only one hope left.
Putin is God.
http://www.theoccidentalobserver.net/2014/03/grand-chess-great-flops-in-ukraine/
Davey on Mon, 17th Mar 2014 8:23 pm
Putin is a blue eyed Devil playing A Russian godhead
Arthur on Mon, 17th Mar 2014 8:29 pm
Yeah Davey, it is all a matter of perspective.
http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/the-winner-ukraine-ischina-10034?page=1
It is far from certain that the European Union would join the United States in applying the “crippling” sanctions some members of Congress are already discussing. Because Europe-Russia trade and investment are more than ten times greater than U.S.-Russia trade and investment, Washington would be asking its allies to risk over $170 billion in foreign direct investment in Russia and over $100 billion in annual European exports. With only about $10 billion or so in U.S. investment and an equivalent amount in annual exports, European capitals may not be too impressed with our support.
I trust the Europeans come to their senses sooner or later.