Operation, Multiple Children

Not too long ago, the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI) launched a campaign to encourage Iranian couples to have more children. This was apparently in reaction to the steady decline of the fertility rate since 1984, as evidenced in the chart below based on World Bank data. This drop is the result of a number of factors, most notably the escalating cost of raising a child given uncontrollable inflation, which is currently at about 32% according to the statistics released by the Central Bank of Iran. The ruling Mullahs have utilized mass media to appeal to the religious conviction of credulous believers by invoking verses of Quran, or hadiths, or using metaphors and euphemisms to embellish the divine benefits of having more children (see video below).

Ostensibly, the goal is to rejuvenate the population and hence the productivity of country’s labor force. The hidden agenda, however, is the Islamization of the population to an even a greater extent by boosting the number of new adherents who will most definitely be the loyal flag-bearers of the IRI and crusaders of the faith. Endorsed by the Supreme Leader, such a strategy allows the religious ruling elites to secure their long term grip on governance by mobilizing young stand-by manpower on an as needed basis.

 

 

In a way, religion is like a cell phone; it benefits immensely from network externalities, so to speak. The larger the number of cell phone users, the more useful the cell phone becomes. Religion works the same way. The larger the number of its followers, the more credible the religion becomes. Additionally, in Islamic countries, Muslims women are not allowed to marry non-Muslim men. Marriage is thus an intrafaith affair, guaranteeing the cohesiveness and homogeneity of the population and the continuation of religious devotion because religious memes will successfully be passed on from parents to their off spring.

 

Because a high fertility rate prevailed for so many years in the past, the Iranian population has now doubled since the advent of the Islamic Revolution. Increase in population has both negative and positive economic implications. Researchers maintain that there is a significant positive link between the size of a religious group and its long term survival rate. In the past, religions like Islam spread out through conquest and coercive enlistment of new converts, as famously documented by historians. However, this strategy is no longer practical in the 21st century. As a result, Muslim nations in general and Iran in particular have no choice but to resort to the new tactic of boosting fertility rates and population expansion as the means of long-term survival. Consequently, Islam is now considered the fastest growing religion in the world, thanks to the implementation of this new strategy in Muslim countries. According to PEW Research, “the Muslim population is forecast to grow at about twice the rate of the non-Muslim population over the next two decades—an average annual growth rate of 1.5% for Muslims, compared with 0.7% for non-Muslims. If current trends continue, Muslims will make up 26.4% of the world’s total projected population of 8.3 billion in 2030, up from 23.4% of the estimated 2010 world population of 6.9 billion.” In advanced countries like the United States, the fertility rate is currently about 1.8% below the replacement rate of 2.1%. The U.S., however, has dealt with its decline in population by implementing broadminded immigration policies. Understandably, such a policy cannot be successful in Islamic countries because no one willingly wants to immigrate to these countries.

 

If Iran’s population rate indeed rises, there should be some positive and negative impacts, economically and otherwise. On the one hand, increase in population may weaken the accumulation of wealth and power in the hands of a few because inheritance is one of the sources of wealth and concentration of economic power. In other words, increasing the number of children results in diffusion of economic power which may well help to dissipate economic inequality and the polarization of the population. On the other hand, increase in population can contribute to the overall economic performance of a country as measured by the total GDP (Gross Domestic Product) provided that complementary resources are adequately available. However, this impact may not likely materialize in Iran where the economy is already operating well below its potential with an unemployment rate of nearly 20%. Under such circumstances, even if there is a rise in GDP following population increase, the per capita GDP will certainly diminish because the increase in total GDP will be more than offset by population growth. In other words, with an increase in population, Iran may be able to create a bigger national pie, but there is no guarantee that everyone will get a bigger slice of it.

 

Overall, increase in population may not have a devastating impact on the Iranian economy as some pessimists would have predicted unless the country fails to utilize productivity enhancing technology, especially in the farm sector, augment its food supply, and improve its public health, environmental, and sanitary conditions, daunting tasks for the Iranian government. In any event, for the Iranian economy to benefit from a boost in population, the growth rate of the economy needs to be more than offset by the population growth rate. And, without an increase in employment and the successful reduction in inflation, the population boost will undoubtedly result in further poverty and diminution of living standards.

 

The government of Iran has offered attractive pecuniary incentives to couples for having more children. These include free hospital stays for child deliveries, extended maternity leaves of up to nine months, and the gift of gold coins for each new child. However, given severe inflation and the increasing cost of raising a child, average Iranian couples will not be able to support many children and hence may not easily succumb to the government’s pressure unless conception squads are stationed in their bedrooms! Additionally, Iran’s gloomy employment outlook and education expenses make upward mobility for the new generation an impossible dream to achieve. According to a survey of Iranians, many of them expressed their unwillingness to have more children because of the escalating cost of living, especially the cost of housing which has put extra strain on their budgets. However, naïve believers who are persuaded by Mullahs that the daily bread for their children will come from God may take comfort in the promises of heavenly rewards and be motivated by government incentives. In other words, Mullahs may successfully lure the most gullible portion of the population into having more children, those who are least likely able to afford to support them.

 

Quite possibly, if the Islamic Republic of Iran coerces couples into having more children against their will, the result will be an increased number of unwanted children who most likely will then grow up to become unproductive and quite possibly criminal members of society.

 

Iranian