Peak Oil is You
Donate Bitcoins ;-) or Paypal :-)
Page added on May 3, 2014
On The Edge Of War: The Latest Russian And Ukraine Troop Movements
If Putin needed a pretext to finally drive across the Ukraine border, he got it today following first the death of nearly 40 pro-Russian protesters in Odessa during a confrontation between pro-Russia and pro-Kiev forces, and then, what appears to be a storming in progress right now by the Ukraine national guard of yet another separatist-controlled city in east Ukraine: Kramatorsk.
According to RT, Ukraine’s National Guard is storming the eastern town of Kramatorsk even as it has also resumed its special operation in Slavyansk, where two soldiers have been killed.
“The assault is starting now,” a Kramatorsk self-defense activist has told RIA Novosti by phone. Another activist told the news agency that the National Guard opened fire on self-defense forces.
Dozens have been killed or injured in Kramatorsk, a doctor told RIA Novosti. The medic added that the fighting has now stopped and all of those injured have been taken to hospitals in Kramatorsk and Slavyansk. At least two died on the way to the hospital, she said.
Meanwhile, the Ukrainian military’s special operation has resumed in the nearby town of Slavyansk. The headquarters of the people’s self-defense is under snipers’ fire, according to Itar-Tass. There are reports of injuries among protesters.
Recall that Putin has made it very clear that all the Kremlin needs to green light an operation in Ukraine is a pretext of “self-defense” for the pro-Russian citizens currently there being attacked by the local military, something which if the tables were turned, would have been classified as a civil war by the impartial western media.
So what does the theater of operations look like should Russia finally get involved?
The Washington Post is publishing a new map that shows, using information from the Royal United Services Institute, recent troop movements in the region. The graphic illustrates how military exercises conducted by Russia have left a big build-up of troops on Ukraine’s border. It also shows Ukraine’s own military moves to its borders with Russia and Moldova’s Russian-dominated enclave, Transnistria.
It may be a long weekend.
19 Comments on "On The Edge Of War: The Latest Russian And Ukraine Troop Movements"
Davy, Hermann, MO on Sat, 3rd May 2014 7:45 am
This article brings an important point to this discussion. A defending force has a 3 to one advantage to an attacker. Russia can only muster 45,000 actual combat forces. The rest of its large armed forces are committed. The Ukraine has actual combat troops are 6,000 spread over a vast country so it is apparent Russia has an edge on raw numbers. Yet, with the mobilization of guard units and civilian resistance Ukraine could make this a messy conflict. It is a very large area for few attacking troops to occupy even if one focuses on a narrow objective. A broad front attack looks to be a difficult one for Russia. An invasion will be quite the logistical undertaking with all kinds of civilian supporting demands of the army like security and humanitarian supplies. The political backlash will be large. I wonder if China will support it? I am sure the UN will condemn it. This could be the black swan that brings down the global economy!
markisha on Sat, 3rd May 2014 7:58 am
Unfortunately the wars are the only solution to our problems
Boat on Sat, 3rd May 2014 8:56 am
As with Afghanistan and Iraq even if you can have some semblance of control you cannot win these wars. Like the US, Russia will find the going rough.
GregT on Sat, 3rd May 2014 10:37 am
I wonder what Washington would do, if Russia backed the overthrow of the democratically elected government in Ottawa, and installed a non elected puppet government loyal to Russia in it’s place?
I doubt that Washington would have shown the same restraint that Putin has.
rockman on Sat, 3rd May 2014 10:47 am
Greg – As long as oil exports weren’t disrupted I’m sure the US govt would figure out how to cope with it. LOL
J-Gav on Sat, 3rd May 2014 10:58 am
I think we need to be clear about what Russian strategic interests are in Urkraine. They concern essentially two areas: Crimea (naval bases and offshore FF exploration) and the Donbas region in the east with its mining and heavy industry infrastructure. If upgraded and its production expanded, this could be used to help Russia reduce its budgetary over-dependence on FF exports (as Davy notes above).
Beyond that, in my view, they would have no interest in ‘taking’ or occupying other parts of the country, though the capital Kiev could be a sticky point as it’s at the root of Slavic culture. Should Russian troops move into the country, they will likely concentrate on consolidating control over those two areas. Then they would call for a federal division of the country into 2 or possibly 3 parts. Negotiations would center on that. If an agreement is reached, then and only then would elections be allowed to take place (which is only logical if you think about it).
On the other hand, I see no benefit to Russia from fomenting a prolonged civil conflict on its southern border. Nor do I believe they have any intention of combatting western Ukrainian forces to gain control over the entire debt-ridden, basket-case country. They don’t need that sort of millstone around their necks any more than Europe does.
J-Gav on Sat, 3rd May 2014 11:06 am
Forget to add : Hopefully negotiations will lead to some form of federal partitioning of the country before any larger-scale shooting starts but, given the entrenched positions on both sides, the prospects don’t look spectacularly good for that at the moment.
Nony on Sat, 3rd May 2014 11:09 am
Boat:
There are some big differences from your view. Afghanistan/Iraq are around the world and one of them even lacks a seacoast. Ukraine is on the border, speaks same language, has a history of occupation, has at least some (perhaps less than the rigged plebiscites, but definitely some) natives in favor or Russification, similar religion, and also the Russians are a little more liable to break eggs to make meals than we are (plus the press will forget and ignore this area).
I can understand how the Baltics, Georgia, even Poland might be concerned about this development.
Nony on Sat, 3rd May 2014 11:12 am
I think we will sell the Ukrainians down the River, just like we did with the Sudetenland, etc. before WW2. Putin is way too smart to do some stupid thing and invade Poland. He will creep and nibble.
P.s. No Godwin. 😉
FriedrichKling on Sat, 3rd May 2014 11:20 am
Nony-
The Sudeten German majority was elated to join their brothers and sisters in the greater reich. Otherwise you would term this self-determination.
paulo1 on Sat, 3rd May 2014 12:42 pm
re: Russian invasion
When I think of Ukranian resistence to Russian goals, I think of Chechnya. The Ukes might be able to resist, but the price will make us all cry. The Russians will make the US forays into Afghanistan and Iraq look like a boy scout camping trip, imho.
Nothing good can come of this.
Paulo
Dennis on Sat, 3rd May 2014 1:34 pm
The Russians will give the Americans a real run for the money. Poor Americans are being lead down the path by lunatics.
Nony on Sat, 3rd May 2014 1:40 pm
FK, any chance of Vienna recovering the SudTirol? Trieste? 😉
MKohnen on Sat, 3rd May 2014 11:29 pm
I think there’s another factor Russia has to consider. If this becomes a civil war, there will be refugees, possibly millions of them. If Russia stands by and let’s the fight occur in the east, most of the refugees will be impoverished Russian Ukrainians. What kind of drag will this put on the Russian economy. Might well be worse than any kind of sanctions the US and EU could levy (oh, I forgot Canada, hahaha!) If Russia could push the war west, most the refugees would be ethnic Ukrainians who would be pushed into the bankrupt East European countries, thereby putting a greater drag on the EU. I’m sure that would hurt Putin’s feelings.
GregT on Sun, 4th May 2014 2:35 am
“If Russia stands by and let’s the fight occur in the east, most of the refugees will be impoverished Russian Ukrainians. What kind of drag will this put on the Russian economy.”
Hmmm, good angle MKohnen. Maybe that’s why Washington instigated this mess to begin with. 5 billion dollars of US taxpayer’s money, certainly would have gone a long ways to helping US citizens, instead of starting yet another war that will do the US people absolutely no good. Unless one considers the plus to the economy of the Industrial Military complex, and the reduction in the population of young US men and women.
Americans, it is time to stand up for your rights, and the rights of others. Stop these wars, stop supporting the military industrial complex, and start treating other peoples with the same respect that you deserve yourselves.
Demand action on solving your own problems, secure your own borders, and stop fucking around with other people around the world.
Your civil rights and liberties are being eroded, your constitution is being dismantled, the longer you remain complacent, the further your way of life will be compromised. Your constitution was founded on basic rights and freedoms, you are allowing that constitution to be destroyed.
Makati1 on Sun, 4th May 2014 8:48 am
Eventually war will come to the homeland of the sheeple. The only question is: in what form?
Northwest Resident on Sun, 4th May 2014 9:34 am
Makati1 — You never miss an opportunity to predict war, death and mayhem on American soil. You spend WAY too much time fantasizing about the destruction of America. You cannot hide the fact that you harbor a burning desire to watch America collapse in an orgy of civil war, death and starvation — because almost every post you make is a derivative of that theme. I remember in one of your posts where you described American’s killing each other off you commented “should be interesting to watch”. You’re a SICK man, Makati1. And I would bet almost anything that once the shit finally hits the fan, YOU are much more likely to become a victim of the types of dark perverse fantasies you are obsessed by than those of us here in America (except for some of the big cities — where your darkest fantasies will most likely become reality — not that you’ll have the pleasure of watching it play on television or on the internet).
Davey on Sun, 4th May 2014 10:49 am
NR, Mak will end up a victim of cannibals on some remote island in his adopted third world country
Northwest Resident on Sun, 4th May 2014 2:45 pm
Davey, if so, I hope they have toothpicks.