Peak Oil is You
Donate Bitcoins ;-) or Paypal :-)
Page added on November 7, 2016
Oil Price and US Politics: Peak Uncertainty
The political outlook – from the US elections and Brexit to the Middle East – has not looked more uncertain than it does now for at least a decade or two, the economic and political researcher Andrei Belyi told NGW in an interview.
“The challenges in the developed world explain the instability in the dollar exchange rate: that often impacts on the oil price more than do the usual supply-demand dynamics. As a result, Opec’s latest attempt to strengthen the oil price has had only limited success because of the uncertainty regarding the political landscape in the US, the dollar exchange rate and stagnating demand.
.
“The oil price is not solely a question of buyers and sellers; Opec plays a relatively minor role in price formation in conditions such as these; it will take a healthy global economy to drive the price up. The situation is somehow reversed from earlier times: rising oil prices often reflect a positive signal in the general economic growth. By contrast, a low price is associated with further political instabilities and lower cash flows. Low oil prices mean longer delays in repaying debt and and so further investment doesn’t happen and then there is a supply crunch.
“For energy, the implications of the US elections are quite significant. Donald Trump is surrounded by oil industry interests more than is the case with Hillary Clinton. If he wins, the energy secretary could be the former head of Continental Resources, Harold Hamm. Based on his various speeches, he is keen to see the US remain self-sufficient and develop its own resources rather than intervene in the Middle East.
“This view is all of a piece with Trump’s isolationist vision. Moreover, Russia has been in the focus of this presidential campaign. Improving relations with Moscow directly affects the interests of ExxonMobil. The largest US oil producer has already lobbied for the US to take a softer line on Russia, where its operations with Rosneft are in suspension. If Trump lifts the sanctions that could mean it returns to the Kara Sea.
“In the meanwhile, Hillary Clinton is taking the opposite view on Russia, which she perceives as a threat. There is no such a direct relation with the hydrocarbon industries in her campaign. Although Clinton and Trump are diametrically opposed on Russia, Trump might become a lot less predictable than Clinton for Moscow. In fact, we should not rule out the possibility of Russia-US relations deteriorating, whoever wins.”
10 Comments on "Oil Price and US Politics: Peak Uncertainty"
Northwest Resident on Mon, 7th Nov 2016 7:18 pm
More like Peak Certainty — that this shit show is going to end very badly. No matter who gets elected. No matter what they manage to temporarily manipulate the oil price up to. No matter how much more debt they throw at the global economy. No matter how much propaganda they pump out. Very, very badly.
Sissyfuss on Mon, 7th Nov 2016 7:24 pm
They are plodding along with their usual systems without seeing that all the variables are in flux and theie systems no longer apply. Denial is also a river in Egypt.
rockman on Mon, 7th Nov 2016 8:30 pm
“…he is keen to see the US remain self-sufficient…”. And once again the ridiculous statement that the US is oil/NG self sufficient.
Go Speed Racer on Mon, 7th Nov 2016 8:50 pm
“Why I voted for Trump”
by Go Speed Racer.
It goes back to when we were 12 years old.
There were these 3 wheel ice cream trucks
that would go thru the neighborhood.
Two 12 year olds would buy ice cream on the right side of the truck, but the 3rd 12 year old would take off the lug nuts on the left side of the truck.
When the driver pulled out, the wheel fell off, while we ran away with ice cream bars.
That’s what I see in this election. If I
vote for Trump, it’s gonna get that wheel to
fall off. And then we can laugh, ‘ha ha ha,
ha ha ha’.
You could say, yo udon’t want a world where
the wheel falls off the ice cream truck.
But i would say, I am tired of business as
usual. Now is the time to act, now is the
time to get the wheel to fall off.
You only have to be 12 years old, to understand
this is the real reason, to vote for Trump.
A vote for Hillary, is a boring vote, a
world where the wheels always stay on the
ice cream truck. Exercise your rebellious
streak, show the driver what you really think,
give them something to remember they will
never forget you.
Just vote for Trump. And watch the wheels
come off. I did, you can do.
The End.
antaris on Mon, 7th Nov 2016 9:30 pm
King Donald and his Queen , Malaria.
Northwest Resident on Mon, 7th Nov 2016 9:39 pm
“Just vote for Trump. And watch the wheels
come off.”
Hillary shall be coronated. It has all been arranged.
And we’ll still be able to watch the wheels come off, just with Hillary in the ceremonial driver’s seat instead of Trump, while backstage the real powers pull levers and push buttons and make shit happen.
Sissyfuss on Mon, 7th Nov 2016 10:24 pm
You could elect Lincoln and the wheels would still fall off. And I thought her name was Maniacal.
Theedrich on Tue, 8th Nov 2016 3:05 am
The only thing certain here is that the U.S. neolibcons will go crazy as their control over the world declines, and Sörös, Gates, and other oligarchs lose their “philanthropic” power.
joe on Tue, 8th Nov 2016 8:01 am
Its a good observation that the petro-dollar recycling system which allowed money to be created by the FED in the fog of interest rate controls and foreign investments is becoming inefficient. More oil is consumed domestically by oil producers, so they need fewer dollars or the demand curve is more shallow for dollars. Its colonialism without the whites in marbled palaces trying to civilise the natives. Instead the US allows the natives a free hand to act as they wish.
The ultimate hypocrite Hillary took millions from the Saudis, a group she knew funded aided ISIS, yet her lust for power is selling out all those Yazidi women. But for Russia stepping in to save Syria, the US would never have helped the Shiite Baghdad government against ISIS.
bug on Tue, 8th Nov 2016 10:13 am
Agree sissyfus, we could get all the guys from Mount Rushmore and the wheels will still fall off the ice cream truck