Oil is often the reason for interfering in another country’s war

Throughout recent history, countries which need oil have found reasons to interfere in countries with a good supply of it and, the researchers argue, this could help explain the US interest in ISIS in northern Iraq.

Researchers from the Universities of Portsmouth, Warwick and Essex modelled the decision-making process of third-party countries in interfering in civil wars and examined their economic motives.

They found that the decision to interfere was dominated by the interveners’ need for oil over and above historical, geographical or ethnic ties.

Civil wars have made up more than 90 per cent of all armed conflicts since World War II and the research builds on a near-exhaustive sample of 69 countries which had a civil war between 1945 and 1999. About two thirds of civil wars during the period saw third party intervention either by another country or outside organisation.

Dr Petros Sekeris, from the University Portsmouth, Dr Vincenzo Bove, from the University of Warwick, and Dr Kristian Skrede Gleditsch from the University of Essex, wanted to find out which factors made it more likely that a third party state would militarily intervene in an ongoing intrastate war.

Dr Sekeris said: “We found clear evidence that countries with potential for oil production are more likely to be targeted by foreign intervention if civil wars erupt.

“Military intervention is expensive and risky. No country joins another country’s civil war without balancing the cost against their own strategic interests and what possible benefits there are.

“We wanted to go beyond conspiracy theories and conduct a careful, nuanced analysis to see whether oil acts as an economic incentive in the decision on whether to intervene in an internal war in another country.

“The results show that outsiders are much more motivated to join a fight if they have a vested financial interest.”

Among the findings, published in the Journal of Conflict Resolution, are:

• The more oil a country has, the more likely a third party will intervene in their civil war;
• The more oil a country imports, the greater the likelihood it will intervene in an oil-producing country’s civil war;

Dr Bove said: “Before the ISIS forces approached the oil-rich Kurdish north of Iraq, ISIS was barely mentioned in the news. But once ISIS got near oil fields, the siege of Kobani in Syria became a headline and the US sent drones to strike ISIS targets.

“We don’t claim that our findings can be applied to every decision made on whether to intervene in another country’s war, but the results clearly demonstrate supply of and demand for oil motivates a significant number of decisions taken to intervene in civil wars in the post-World War II period.

“The ‘thirst for oil’ is often put forward as a near self-evident explanation behind the intervention in Libya and the absence of intervention in Syria. Many claims are often simplistic but, after a rigorous and systematic analysis, we found that the role of economic incentives emerges as a key factor in intervention.”

The research found that a third party country was more likely to intervene if:

• They were a major power;
• The rebels were strong and well-armed;
• There were close ethnic ties between the two countries; and/or
• The civil war took place during the Cold War, a period of global competition between superpowers.

Among the examples highlighted by the researchers were USA’s involvement in Angola’s civil war from 1975 to the end of the Cold War and in Guatemala, Indonesia and the Philippines, and the USA’s support of conservative autocratic states in oil-rich. Also cited were the UK’s involvement in Nigeria’s 1967-70 civil war, in contrast to the non-intervention in civil wars in other former colonies which had no oil reserves (Sierra Leone and Rhodesia, later Zimbabwe); and the former Soviet Union’s involvement in Indonesia (1958), Nigeria (1967-68) and Iraq (1973).

The researchers said that at the other end of the spectrum, oil-rich states including the Gulf States, Mexico and Indonesia have no history of military intervention in other countries’ civil wars, even if they have advanced and well equipped military forces. With the West becoming less energy-dependent and China becoming more energy-dependent, the incentives for third party countries to intervene in other countries’ wars was likely to change in the future, they said.

31 Comments on "Oil is often the reason for interfering in another country’s war"

eugene on Sat, 12th Sep 2015 8:44 am 



Ya think? It took a research project to figure this out? How many of these “civil wars” did the US start? Course I’m one of those “conspiracy” people. Vietnam taught me that.

Makati1 on Sat, 12th Sep 2015 9:05 am 



Isn’t it interesting that before George Bush invaded the ME, there was relative quiet and peace between nations?

(With the exception of on-going Israeli bullshit.)

The US sponsored al-Qaeda as the excuse for 9/11 and then ISIS as an excuse to invade Syria and secure gas line routes to Europe. Now there is nothing but chaos there. But then, that was the goal. But the chaos is coming home…

“Record shattering 94 Million Americans not in the labor force: The army of non-working Americans continues to grow.”
“Neonic pesticide risk to U.S. waterways”
“The Social Security disability fund is disabled”
“Gunman walks up to Las Vegas cops, starts shooting into car”
“America’s Poorest Are Getting Virtually No Assistance”
“1.5 Million U.S. Households Live on $2 a Day per Person”
“Macy’s to close up to 40 stores in early 2016”
“Key revenue measure still falling at Delta Air Lines; fare wars taking a toll?”
“‘All Cops Are Bastards’: Black Bloc Riots in Olympia, Washington”
“Thieves target AC units at local churches” (US)
“$15,000 bronze tabernacle stolen from St. Paul church”
“Kraft: Ten Times More Cheese Singles Affected by Recall”
“Mexican cucumbers: Salmonella outbreak kills one, sickens hundreds in the U.S.”
“America’s terrible roads are good for Michelin’s business: CEO”
“8 homicides in 1 day are latest signs of Chicago’s bloody summer”
“Child’s Foot, Other Body Parts Found In Chicago Park”
“As Heroin Epidemic Grows, So Does Rehab Wait”
“8 States Running Out of Water”
“Southwest Airlines diverts flight after 6 passengers loudly rebuke attendants”
“Flight from Vegas to Germany diverted over unruly passenger”
“Pentagon: Live anthrax breach hits 50 states, 9 countries”
“Americans Have Never Been Dumber”
“Nearly 1 million veterans have pending applications for health care at VA — and a third may already be dead”
“New Research Documents Growth of Extreme Poverty in US”
“Murder Rates Rising Sharply in Many U.S. Cities”
“Most workers actually making LESS than 5 years ago”

All in the first 11 days of September at Rice Farmer.

Plantagenet on Sat, 12th Sep 2015 9:15 am 



I don’t see anyone invading North Dakota or Texas to take over the tight oil shale deposits there

Fat Lady on Sat, 12th Sep 2015 9:27 am 



“Researchers have for the first time provided strong evidence for what conspiracy theorists have long thought” That is all I needed to read.

apneaman on Sat, 12th Sep 2015 10:52 am 



Planty, look closer and you will see that there is not all that much difference between the way Americans treat N Dakota and the ME – Greedy, show up – turn it into a shit hole – treat the women like whores – drink, drug, rape – tear up the infrastructure….typical American invasion behaviour. Taking and breaking that’s all you people know how to do.

How Fracking Fuels Prostitution and Organized Crime in Bakken Shale Region

http://ecowatch.com/2014/02/02/fracking-prostitution-organized-crime-bakken-shale/

And when it’s all over they will leave and leave a big fucking mess for the locals to deal with.

The Dark Side Of The Shale Bust

“Williams County Commissioner Dan Kalil says that a lot of unemployed people who flocked to North Dakota are left in the wake of the bust, something that the local government has to sort out. “We attracted everyone who had failed in Sacramento, everyone who failed in Phoenix, everyone who failed in Las Vegas, everybody who had failed in Houston, everyone who failed in Florida,” Kalil said in a June 3 interview with WHQR.org. “And they all came here with unrealistic expectations. And it’s really frustrating for those of us left to clean up the mess.”

http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2015/06/the-dark-side-of-the-shale-bust.html

BobInget on Sat, 12th Sep 2015 2:46 pm 



http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/sns-wp-blm-news-bc-norway12-20150912-story.html

Boat on Sat, 12th Sep 2015 2:47 pm 



apeman,
The darker side, flaring.
What do you expect when young single men look for a job, get one, and then get laid off. Youth brings much more volatility and lack of maturity. But they will work long hrs in the cold. A necessary evil. These folks didn’t fail at anything. That is stupid reasoning. Sometimes your the hammer, something your the nail.

peakyeast on Sat, 12th Sep 2015 3:04 pm 



@plant: North dakota and Texas are already invaded by europeans.

I suppose thats why you dont see it.

😉

apneaman on Sat, 12th Sep 2015 3:07 pm 



Boat I have worked in more camp jobs than I care to remember, so I know all about it. I was once on of those guys reeking havoc on small industry towns all over in western Canada ….full of testosterone, attitude and drunker than 4 barrels of monkeys. The opinion that those guys who came there looking for work cause there was none where they lived are failures is your typical neoliberal just world conservative viewpoint. Typical in your country and gaining ground in mine.

Boat on Sat, 12th Sep 2015 3:13 pm 



apeman,
It is not my fault you were selfish and immature when you were young. It is what it was. Most young like yourself and myself went through growing pains. I quit smoking pot and doing drugs at 28 because I became a supervisor and had to think better at work. Calling that a failure is stupid. Just growing up.

apneaman on Sat, 12th Sep 2015 3:34 pm 



I did not write that article boat and I think I made it perfectly clear that I disagree with that view. My take on the common view of success and failure is that there are so many variables in life that we have no control over that it is a poor measure of another person’s worth. I still believe in giving credit where due, but do you think you would be in the same position if you were born Indian on a reservation with a high level of poverty, abuse, alcoholism and suicide? We are social monkeys and none of us makes it in this world without a great deal of help from others. Competitiveness is only half of what we are the other half is cooperation. Forgetting this is part of the reason why society sucks so much now and many are unhappy. This has been studied thoroughly and many highly successful people agree, but it’s the neo-liberal individualistic propaganda that has won out.

Self-Made Man – No Such Thing

http://www.forbes.com/sites/mikemyatt/2011/11/15/self-made-man-no-such-thing/

Why do we cling to the myth of the “self-made man?”
The myths of the self-made man and meritocracy perpetuate income inequality

https://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/wired-success/201304/why-do-we-cling-the-myth-the-self-made-man

Boat on Sat, 12th Sep 2015 3:51 pm 



apeman,
I don’t read all the crap about neoliberal and conservationism. It’s just words with an agenda. I don’t have an agenda. All people have equal worth as humans. But none of us can help everybody. Just who you can.
I recently help fix up a lady’s house for a week. It was a project through my brothers church. I don’t go to church and don’t have much to do with religion but don’t mind helping those in need. Society good or bad I don’t care as I am only one individual. I don’t care about the ultra successful or what they think. I do what I think.
I agree there is no self made man but a determined hard working man will be just fine.

Boat on Sat, 12th Sep 2015 7:46 pm 



Researchers have for the first time provided strong evidence for what conspiracy theorists have long thought — oil is often the reason for interfering in an other country’s war.

It took research to come up with that? Lol Before oil it was some other commodity. Save some money and do a few internet searches next time.

rockman on Sat, 12th Sep 2015 8:02 pm 



My memory fails: when was the last war not fought over some resource: oil, gold, diamonds, ag, trade routes, etc?

Makati1 on Sat, 12th Sep 2015 10:19 pm 



rockman, my memory agrees with you.

Makati1 on Sat, 12th Sep 2015 10:24 pm 



Boat, “I agree there is no self made man but a determined hard working man will be just fine.”

I disagree. Hard work may once have made you independent, but no longer. Your government doesn’t want you to be independent of them, ever. Over 80% of Americans are dependent on some form of government dole, either directly or indirectly by way of subsidies of the things they use and need. The other 20% are the elite and the elite’s ass-wipers. Oe so it seems to me.

Makati1 on Sat, 12th Sep 2015 10:26 pm 



And, yes, I do accept my Social Security check because I consider that as a return on my being forced to pay into it for almost 50 years. I do NOT use medicare or any other of the social crutches so popular in America these days. nor do I pay taxes other than sales/VAT.

BC on Sat, 12th Sep 2015 11:40 pm 



“Over 80% of Americans are dependent on some form of government dole, either directly or indirectly by way of subsidies of the things they use and need. The other 20% are the elite and the elite’s ass-wipers.”

This smacks of hyperbole but is, in fact, much closer to reality than most Americans would prefer to believe.

There is a fledgling movement in the West advocating for a “basic income guarantee” (BIG) or “social dividend” in response to the high probability of an acceleration of automation of paid labor and elimination of purchasing power of the bottom 80-90%. The advocacy is rather more often than not met with reflexive hostility from the top 1-10%. However, the vast majority of social-welfare transfers are a form of a BIG, and it is not too much of a stretch to define as a form of a “private” BIG such transfers as rentier income from annuities, trusts, equity and debt ownership, land resource rents from rental income, etc. It’s all a matter of values and definition of ownership, as well as who has the power to make the rules and thereafter enforce them most often in their self-interest as “property owners”.

It matters not HOW one obtains one’s “property” and the income, wealth, and privilege derived therefrom but that one HAS it and what one does with it.

“Property” owners today are increasingly owners of fiat digital debt-money credits in a computer that are hoarded at historic overvaluation to profits, wages, GDP, and gov’t receipts, and at virtually zero velocity to productive economic activity. The larger the financial debt-money-denominated asset bubbles become, the larger the rentier claim on current and future economic activity hereafter.

The “wealth” being created today is actually a debilitating net rentier claim against real growth per capita hereafter in perpetuity.

apneaman on Sun, 13th Sep 2015 12:48 am 



BC, Greg, etc, ever read George Mobus?

What is Really Behind the Refugee Crisis in Europe?

The Resource Crisis and Climate Change

http://questioneverything.typepad.com/question_everything/2015/09/what-is-really-behind-the-refugee-crisis-in-europe.html

theedrich on Sun, 13th Sep 2015 2:39 am 



WW II was an attempt to recover Germany’s stolen land and to take over Soviet oil fields for desperately needed fuel.  America had played a large role in triggering that war through its insane help to the insane British in WW I, which resulted in the criminal Versailles Treaty.  Then in February 1945 our mentally and physically deformed POTUS, FDR, made a diabolical pact with the original King Saud to support the latter’s tyranny no matter what the crimes of the desert snake, just so long as we could access Saudi oil.  All in the interest of “American interests.”

To my knowledge, one factor that is never mentioned publicly regarding the Iran deal by the powers behind the current doltish marionette in the White House is the quiet but ongoing depletion of the Ghawar.  Not just Iraq, but Iran has lots of oil ready for the market.  As the KSA declines, it is going to be increasingly urgent to find replacements.  The long-term planners behind the curtains in DC are not ignorant of PO.  They also know that destroying Iran (Israel’s wet dream) would collapse the world economy almost instantly.  If the Repubs were allowed to be honest, they would drop their pretended indignation about that deal.

Davy on Sun, 13th Sep 2015 6:09 am 



“I do accept my Social Security check because I consider that as a return on my being forced to pay into it for almost 50 years.”

No one deserves social security because the system is broke. It is the generation now that are receiving the social security that put the US on the wrong path and the reason social security is going broke. Social security is welfare for older people that can’t or do not want to work.

I have paid a fortune into social security. I do not expect to see a penny nor do I think I deserve any. When something is broke it is broke. All things considered those receiving social security should receive it as long as the wealthy 1% are getting multiple subsidies and privileges.

All this is going to end soon enough when globalism ends. We will be made poor as a society. It will be a world of forced localization basically revolving around finding food. What a fall that will be.

BobInget on Sun, 13th Sep 2015 9:18 am 



Editor’s note: This article has been updated to reflect recent Wikileaks revelations of US State Department leaks that show plans to destabilize Syria and overthrow the Syrian government as early as 2006. The leaks reveal that these plans were given to the US directly from the Israeli government and would be formalized through instigating civil strife and sectarianism through partnership with nations like Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Qatar and even Egypt to break down the power structue in Syria to essentially to weaken Iran and Hezbolla. The leaks also reveal Israeli plans to use this crisis to expand it’s occupation of the Golan Heights for additional oil exploration and military expansion.

http://www.mintpressnews.com/migrant-crisis-syria-war-fueled-by-competing-gas-pipelines/209294/

BobInget on Sun, 13th Sep 2015 9:46 am 



Keep in mind, there are No Saudi Troops
in Yemen.
Also, None of the so called collation troops have any skin in the game.
Saudi Arabia has in the strongest sense of the word ‘hired’ these soldiers.

Also, Iran has yet to send aid of any sort.

Two million Yemeni will die this winter as a result of Saudi Agression. Will the US and UK
‘stand trial in the ‘court of public opinion’
as a result?

Yemeni Genocide could be stopped today by simply pulling US and UK assistance from KSA. That won’t happen. The US and UK foreign policy seems to be dictated by Saudi Arabia and Israel.

http://www.ibtimes.com/yemen-crisis-egypt-qatar-send-ground-troops-battle-houthi-rebels-saudi-arabia-2089007

Peace Talks Cancelled

BEIRUT — For the first time since Saudi Arabia formed a 10-country coalition in March to battle the Yemeni Houthi rebels, Egypt and Qatar have expanded their involvement — previously limited to airstrikes — by sending hundreds of ground troops to Yemen this week. Nine coalition members are expected to have forces fighting on the ground alongside Saudi troops before the end of the week, according to Yemen local news.

Egypt, which has one of the strongest armies in the Arab world, sent 800 troops armed with tanks and military transport vehicles into the war-torn country Tuesday night. The day before, Qatar sent 1,000 troops into Yemen. Morocco, Sudan, Jordan and Kuwait are expected to follow suit and join the thousands of troops already on the ground from Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates. Some reports claim that many of the countries listed had already sent troops into Yemen as of Wednesday.

“We have sent these forces as part of Egypt’s prominent role in this alliance. … The alliance fights for the sake of our brotherly Arab states, and the death of any Egyptian soldier would be an honour and considered martyrdom for the sake of innocent people,” a senior Egyptian military source told Reuters.

Boat on Sun, 13th Sep 2015 9:48 am 



Davy,
“I do accept my Social Security check because I consider that as a return on my being forced to pay into it for almost 50 years.”

I have paid a fortune into social security. I do not expect to see a penny nor do I think I deserve any.

Don’t you think it reads weird if you receive funds but don’t expect to see a penny?

Boat on Sun, 13th Sep 2015 9:56 am 



The American dole has lifted millions of people get through hard times and allowed them to keep from starving. The only problem with the dole IMO is it should be considered as a needed expense with the military. The US debt is obviously to high. If war expenditure is considered that important the money should come out of the dole.
Using this kind of system would make military spending very unpopular and much tougher to do. But using a pay as you go with little debt would save the 430 billion the US spends a year just on interest on the debt.

Davy on Sun, 13th Sep 2015 10:36 am 



Boat, learn how to read a comment before you open your suck. After you read my comment again get back to me if you can’t understand it and I will walk you through it.

Davy on Sun, 13th Sep 2015 10:37 am 



Hint Boat, read asswipes comment above my comment.

Kenz300 on Sun, 13th Sep 2015 11:01 am 



No more wars for OIL…….

Bring on the electric, flex-fuel, hybrid, biodiesel, CNG, LNG and hydrogen fueled vehicles…. the more we diversify our choices the better.

Better yet most people should use a bicycle for short distance travel. People would be healthier and there would be less obesity contributing to heart disease and cancer rates.

Boat on Sun, 13th Sep 2015 11:14 am 



Kenz,
A carbon tax would make all those things happen faster.

GregT on Sun, 13th Sep 2015 11:25 am 



“A carbon tax would make all those things happen faster.”

The carbon tax that we have been paying in British Columbia since 2008, has done nothing of the sort.

Boat on Sun, 13th Sep 2015 12:03 pm 



Well GregT,
It needs to be world wide to work the best.