Peak Oil is You
Donate Bitcoins ;-) or Paypal :-)
Page added on November 5, 2020
No Matter Who Wins
Modern elections—despite their social and political importance—have become more like sporting events than referendums around ideas. We so intensely identify with our partisan tribe, that we focus on the slogans, the rooting against the ‘other guy’ and other us-vs-them dynamics, and often lose sight of the issues, the context, and how ‘winning’ for our country (and world) might actually be influenced by our choices.
We are inherently tribal, after all. Of all of our inherited ancestral heuristics, defending our (historically small) tribe and ostracizing/rooting against the other tribe is one of the strongest human universals. In fact, perhaps humans’ best quality – cooperation and collaboration – was a byproduct of the strong unity born out of common threats, accessing surplus, and tribal warfare. We cooperate – for the good of our group – and for tens/hundreds of thousands of years, this meant survival.
Fast forward to November 2020, USA and the four year inflection point where half the country is rooting for Joe Biden and the other half (roughly) for Donald Trump – in our minds we know this is an important guidepost for our collective future, but we approach this week with similar temperament and behavior as a Packer/Viking pre-game tailgate.
We are now in the liminal space between our nation’s long history and future. Facts and expertise matter less by the day. Emotions and tribal affiliations focus our attention on the ‘cars’ instead of looking at the road ahead of us. Later this week 50% of our population will be elated and the other 50% will be angry. And most of both camps will be variously: righteous, anxious and uncertain, and perhaps violent. This, along with the various trivia of Democrat and Republican victories and defeats will be the hyper-focus of our media. But below, in no particular order, is a look at some of the critical guideposts in the next 4 years along the winding road of our collective future that – as colleagues, citizens and neighbors in the United States of America, we’ll have to navigate with each other – no matter who wins the election.
COVID 19- Spilling into 2021
As I wrote in March, the ‘cure’ (lockdowns) for COVID would be worse than the disease in aggregate impact. Though death rates were perhaps overblown, the virulence -and ‘long COVID complications’ were not. Various vaccines and treatments and protocols will be developed but the worst months may still be ahead of us. This virus may or may not ultimately have a cure, but either way COVID has permanently damaged the vascular system of the human superorganism, explained below. No matter who wins the election, the Coronavirus will still be with us.
V vs K
Economies tanked in the 2nd quarter and – on the backs of stimulus and central bank support – roared back in Q3. Through July 31, 2020 -when direct stimulus ran out – the US government was responsible for fully 25% of our national wages. While the professional class (and tech companies) are experiencing a sharp V recovery, many hourly workers, small businesses, retail, leisure, transportation, restaurants are seriously struggling. Many people are hanging on via donations and loans from friends and family and ‘food insecurity’ is becoming widespread. The conventional thinking is that in either a Democratic or Republican ‘sweep’, considerably more stimulus (aka borrowing from future to consume today) will arrive. If, there is e.g. a Biden win and the Senate stays Republican, continued government stabilization of the economic patient will be in jeopardy, and many systemic risks ensue.
But headline GDP statistics aside, the pandemic has widened already large disparities between the haves and have nots. The COVID recession is the most unequal one in US history. As we recover – or don’t – distribution of resources within our population is going to be a critical issue – (more on this below). At some point if the have nots have nothing, they may be forced to take from the haves – or do without. No matter who wins the election we are going to have to find ways to support the weak, the vulnerable and the unemployed. And I expect these will number in the 10s of millions.
Ideology, Memes and Icebergs
If you haven’t been asleep, traveling or drugged these past few years, you are aware there is a growing movement pointing out the racial, social and economic injustices of our current system. This is in large part because there are considerable racial, social and economic injustices in our current system. But fairness was never the objective built into our cultural goals or institutions – we optimize for (economic) efficiency, not fairness, nor resilience. The situation is this: various demographics now quite vocally (and reasonably) want a larger share of the economic pie, but the pie itself is about to shrink, which is something few are aware of – and don’t like to hear/think about.
Let’s unpack this using an overused analogy – the Titanic. On the Titanic were 3 classes of passengers – First Class, Second Class and Steerage (or 3rd Class). You can imagine the conversations, hopes, dreams and concerns of the various people on that ship over a century ago. And, history tells us that the tragedy did not befall each class equally – 39% of 1st class passengers perished, 58% of 2nd class and 76% of steerage passengers drowned. The same demographics exist today and are probably having similar conversations within and between groups, focused on maintaining status, moving up in class, or demanding better conditions.
And then there is someone like me – shouting (to all 3 classes) that we just hit an iceberg and need to use science, discourse, reason and planning to find the best solution to navigating what’s ahead. You can imagine the reaction – indeed you see it in the news and in your town hall meetings. The ‘first class passengers’ publicly decry that there is no iceberg that technology would never allow the ship to hit an iceberg let alone sink (but privately they are looking to ‘lifeboats’ aka gated communities and the like). The second class passengers are scrambling like mad to ingratiate themselves to the first class passengers to get crumbs of surplus lest they slip into steerage. And the steerage passengers – a full 50%+ of American society today have 2 common responses: 1) “Ok sure there may be an iceberg, but we need to solve our more immediate concerns like our current unacceptable living/working conditions, because we’ll drown from those before any freaking iceberg” (they are mostly right) or 2) “Ya right, an iceberg -that is just another story by elites and governments telling us what we have to do and taking away our rights and freedoms”. The difference now (vs on the actual Titanic) is that the steerage class (economically) houses both the far left and the far right, effectively creating an additional ‘iceberg’ within the ship. The people in ‘steerage’ can’t really conceive that in addition to their current troubles, society ALSO has hit an iceberg (see below).
The point here is that the narratives (and religions) that make people feel good are often not based on reality. Which makes discussing, planning and responding to ‘the iceberg of the 2020s’ a very difficult task. The key will be to acknowledge the moral failings of our economic and cultural past while simultaneously acknowledging and planning the lifeboat situation. That’s a difficult thing for a human mind to do.
No matter who wins the election we will be faced with multiple non-overlapping memes and explanations for the upheaval that is coming. Our plight is biophysical (biology and physics) in nature but will be blamed on class, race, politics, and ideology. Navigating this is going to be exceedingly difficult. A new captain can change the morale and surround himself by great minds to make the best civic decisions, but he/she cannot change the fact that our economy and culture has hit an iceberg.
The Zombies are Coming
The central bank purchases and guarantees of various offerings of debt has turned the financial system into a digital Rube Goldberg machine. One of the externalities is that -while economy was suffering from an exogenous shock from COVID – companies used the FED guarantee to raise cheap debt. For instance, Boeing – a company who arguably will come out of the COVID crisis with worse business prospects due to less demand for planes – nearly doubled its long term debt because it could do so at low rates (the bonds being guaranteed by the FED). This means Boeing – and many other companies – will emerge from this crisis with both lower revenues and higher debt, putting them at risk of becoming ‘zombies’. Zombie companies are those whose profits are not enough to pay their interest payments – and they need to take on even more debt (or get direct aid from governments) to stay solvent.
Yes – it’s true stock markets are near all time highs. But this too is a distribution (and expectation) problem. Going into Q3 earnings, the five largest S&P 500 stocks (AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL, FB) were expected to grow 3Q sales and EPS by +13% and +1% while the other 495 stocks in SP500 are expected to have a -5% revenue drop and a -24% drop in EPS.
Some great companies. Lots of zombies. No matter who wins this election, we (and the rest of developed world) are going to face a large and growing number of bankrupt and insolvent companies. Stimulus will help – and is critically necessary – but isn’t a long-term solution. And, as the government takes on more and more of this burden, it too risks zombification.
A Cul-de-Sac – and Full of Cans
At year end 2019 we were still recovering from the Great Recession in 2008 -the ‘temporary’ measures initiated in 2008 – artificially low interest rates, too big to fail guarantees, Quantitative Easing, explosion of government debt, expansion of central bank balance sheets, etc were still in effect a dozen years later. Even with all this, productivity gains have been tiny – and a fraction of earlier decades.
Now, in addition to all this, governments are adding fiscal stimulus – because they must. The little green man behind the curtain – (currently Jerome Powell) is a very capable and good person but he is not superman. The institution he oversees -the Federal Reserve is using an invisible giant magic wand to move what we might’ve consumed in 2030 or 2040 forward to 2020 (in the process leaving less available in 2030 and 2040). Modern Monetary Theory tells us deficits don’t matter – but they do – when we create money, we do not create the energy and materials needed to pay it back, so adding more and more debt becomes less productive over time – and has limits.
What happens when either government decides to stop stimulus (hard to imagine) or the bond market says ‘no mas’ via higher rates? What is the plan by either the Left or the Right (or anyone) for when QE and stimulus combined cannot plug the economic hole for people and businesses? My opinion is that question will be answered in the next administration – and the answer will be a drop in GDP akin to the 1930s. Yes, more debt and creative stimulus/infrastructure spending will forestall this – for a while but we will soon face a situation when we can no longer kick the can of growing GDP again to the future. Money isn’t reality – it’s a marker for the things that matter: built, social, natural and human capital. No matter who wins the election we have a decades old physical/financial bill that’s coming due.
Complexity
Increasingly I think it’s not oil nor finance, nor social disruption that is our core risk but declining returns to complexity. Historian Joseph Tainter famously studied how ancient civilizations collapsed due to the inability of resources/productivity to keep pace with complexity. In today’s world, this can be seen in myriad ways, from the unemployment software in US States being written in COBOL and FORTRAN, to APIs for majority of our medicines made in India and China.
It’s not something we think about, but we all are part of a complex global supply chain. On the way up, using the concept of ‘comparative advantage’ we outsourced various manufacturing to their lowest cost production – which in many cases meant locations in Asia with cheap labor. COVID allowed us to see the soft-underbelly of those decades old decisions as we have endangered our own security: almost 200 drugs currently listed as in short supply by FDA, 6 month wait for bicycles, heavy equipment delays etc. This is a separate issue from ammunition, canned goods, toilet paper etc having short term kinks in the supply chain – this issue goes to the embedded brittleness of a global system based on growth to further rely on import substitution models of production.
No matter who wins the election, with the geopolitical context that is COVID 19 on financial steroids, making sure that important things are made domestically (or regionally) may become an important question.
(Charts from Labyrinth Consulting. Assumptions: EIA & Enverus data through August 2020. Sept and Oct guided by EIA tight oil estimates plus Labyrinth estimates for OCS & conventional. Nov 2020 thru Nov 2021 calibrated speculation using to-date tight oil rig count and production correlation extrapolating 2020 ratio average for deep water & conventional production.)
If you took a poll and asked people what the single biggest casualty was from the pandemic, very few people would respond with ‘oil’. But no matter who wins the election, US oil production, including shale oil, is about to fall off a cliff, with massive consequences for society. For the setup of our modern way of life, oil is effectively our hemoglobin – and the COVID arrow hit at the heart of the industry as market prices are far below what it costs to extract oil from the ground. Yet this is all invisible to most people as the media (and economics departments) still conflate price with cost and cost with value. We were in bad shape BEFORE Covid-19 and now the Red Queen (drilling faster and faster just to maintain static production) has stepped off the treadmill for 6+months – meaning the large underlying decline rates of existing fields are not being offset much by new drilling. Worse, most of the recent decline in production is because wells have been shut in. Many of these will never be brought back on line because they cannot meet basic operating expenses and production taxes at current oil prices. In aggregate, US production is so far down -2.28 mmbpd from a 2019 monthly average high of of 12.86 mmbpd. Assuming rig counts and prices stay roughly where they are (and with no stimulus they may get worse), this implies a level of about 7 mmbpd by late summer 2021 – nearly a 50% drop. Globally, the reduction in travel, leisure and transport due to COVID effectively squeezed upstream investment- we are down to 72.8 mb of crude and condensate from 84.6 in November 2018, -which date is highly likely to be the all time peak in global production. Note: this will likely never be recognized as such because there will always be a non-biophysical reason articulated as to why we aren’t getting more oil. E.g. ‘the chinese’ or ‘the environmentalists’ or ‘the war’.)
To label this geologic phenomenon as ‘peak demand for oil’ is the economic equivalent of saying the reindeer on St Matthew Island faced ‘peak demand for lichen’. Oil is the lifeblood of our (current) economy -peak demand for oil also likely means peak growth for economies (unless massive efficiencies and fuel switching occur very fast). We probably won’t notice any lack of oil for many years because affordability by citizens will likely decline faster than oil itself (unless massive stimulus and central bank bazookas arrive). Regardless an accelerated retiring of the fossil armies that do most of our work, and create and deliver our modern smorgasbord of goods and services is now on the horizon.
Note: I think the graph from my friend Art may be a bit pessimistic, but maybe not. We face a biophysical gauntlet where the price citizens can afford is getting lower and lower and the price energy companies need is higher and higher. If governments guarantee high prices to oil companies, or there are other incentives, production might be higher than indicated here – but here is a glaring statistic – if we were to stop drilling in USA entirely we would lose around 40% of our entire oil production in 1 year – we have to keep investing/drilling in more difficult and costly spots to avoid such a decline. (the 1 year decline rates are: Texas 40%, ND is 52%, Oklahoma 50%, GOM/deepwater 32% New Mexico 45% – these 5 regions are 80% of US production).
This is not remotely being discussed in our culture.
No matter who wins the election, US oil production has peaked – again -and this time including the tight oil provinces – from the ‘source rock’. This will have….large long term consequences, whether one is left, right or libertarian.
Other Energy
Humans – during periods of growth – and contraction – self-organize around energy. Oil is central but our entire energy balance sheet is going to be a critical issue in the coming decade. Under a Biden win, various Green New Deal schemes will massively scale renewable energy. In many ways this is good news, because it will be good for GDP, it will create jobs, and grow our supply of low carbon energy. But there are many problems with this because it won’t be approached systemically. Briefly: 1) renewable energy isn’t renewable, it’s rebuildable, 2) only 20% of (current) energy mix is electricity which is the type of energy produced from most renewables 3) the higher % of RE in our mix the more important back up (NG and coal) become – and the US is facing an impending gas shortage as US drilling has plummeted. (the largest growth component of supply was the associated gas from tight oil production), 4) the full system cost of integrating RE into the grid is higher than consumers currently pay, weighing on the economy 5) all RE plans expect a LARGER economy in the future when (see above) most realistic scenarios using systemic inputs point to a smaller economy.
Still, renewables are our only hope – they are mature, robust and inexpensive vis-à-vis even a decade ago. The problem will be how to ‘add renewables to a smaller and more complex system’. No matter who wins the election, we will have to face a more complex and less certain energy future.
Meaning and Well-being
One of the silver linings (if you will) of the pandemic is that now a great number of people personally are aware US GDP/ 330 million does not represent how well we are doing as individuals or as a nation. The constant media reminders that the SP500 and Dow Jones just made all-time highs is incongruous with most peoples real lived experience (and most of whom have zero money in the stock market). Whether one understands or agrees with the risks of climate change, energy depletion or limits to growth, tens of millions of people are now hungry for living a decent life with access to basic needs, while doing something good. The coming decades – by definition but also by desire – are going to be more about well-being than they are about growing our consumption of stuff.
No matter who wins the election, our nation needs to embark on a deep conversation about what our cultural goal is – we are going to need complementary metrics to the econometric measures quantifying how much energy we burned. What is all this energy for is a question that should be part of our national discourse.
Protecting Heaven
Lost in the discussions of Republicans vs Democrats, stimulus, PPP, COVID statistics, stock market gyrations and geopolitics is perhaps the most important story of all – the state of Earth’s ecosystems and the ~10 million species we share the planet with. They are ‘downstream’ of our elections and financial/economic systems, but none of them have a vote.
I have concluded that natural systems and species futures – for better or worse – are linked to human futures – we have to ‘bend not break’ to have the best outcome for (most) Earth Systems (other than perhaps oceans and very remote species). I believe humans are not any better or worse than we were 100 years, 1000 years or 100,000 years ago – there are just more of us so our impact is (much) larger and each and every one of us consuming much more resources than our ancestors did. Humans are good at heart but we are biological organisms following cultural goals that have expiry dates. We have arrived at a ‘species level’ juncture and need to use systems science, reason, discourse, and leadership to navigate a glide path to intact futures.
No matter who wins the election, the state of the natural world needs to be included in our plans and discussions. Unfortunately, it first needs to be included in our values.
Joy, Living, and Goals
The Great Depression, unless you lived in a big city, mostly happened in slow motion. Similarly, unless we’re very unlucky, the events of the coming decade will unfold gradually. We have to take it upon ourselves to civically engage, but also find time to enjoy and appreciate our lives – being alive at this amazing and perilous time.
We all have ‘conditional’ goals, those which rely on something external to us to change in order to succeed. Many of those goals will not get met because external conditions prevent them – perhaps the ‘guy who we didn’t vote for’ winning the election. The key is to also find “unconditional” goals – those which we ourselves can be 100% responsible for. That way we can feel more empowered to reach those goals, which many times can influence the conditional goals in positive ways. Growing food, spending time with your neighbors, learning a new (useful to the future) skill, mutual aid, etc. The key for all of us – is to meet the future halfway.
No matter who wins the election, life, and the opportunity for joy, impact, and meaning will exist, perhaps even more so.
The 2020 Election and beyond
So, dear reader and fellow countrymen/women, go vote. But voting is merely the beginning of our civic duty. Our country will be shaped by how we citizens respond to the challenges ahead of us as much (or more) than it will by which party wins the election. What am I rooting for? Rationality, science, civility, discourse, which opens up other potential pathways. Our culture is capable of much more than guns germs and steel or being an energy dissipating superorganism.
People who practice common decency and respect are by far the majority in our (and other) countries. When matched with perseverance, common goals and prioritizing social capital and relationships, we might just happen upon the glide path to decent futures. There are 10s of millions of Americans craving having their basic needs met and just doing some good with their lives – they just don’t yet have a roadmap and convening place. Could such a thing be the emergent result of the 2020 election?
Society right now is dancing – and fighting on the roof of an A-frame with the winds blowing hard and a storm shooting lightning at our heads. We need to keep dancing (less fighting) while we climb down to more stable ground.
No matter who wins the election this week we are on the cusp of major change which will require both top-down and bottom up interventions and cultural emergence. I hope you can play a role.
180 Comments on "No Matter Who Wins"
FamousDrScanlon on Thu, 5th Nov 2020 11:52 am
Imitation is the highest form of flattery.
It happens when you’re a famous analyst of human behaviour & motivation & have a rapier wit.
“FamousDrScanlon on Wed, 4th Nov 2020 9:13 pm
No Matter Who Wins
By Nate Hagens
https://www.energyandourfuture.org/2020/11/02/no-matter-who-wins/”
It’s almost sad watching the pathetic juvenile fumbling of the board’s losers use my handle & attempt to pass off their remedial writing as mine. One trick pony.
No bigge. It’s been happening most of my life.
FamousDrScanlon – all the girls want to fuck me & the guys all want to be me.
FamousDrScanlon on Thu, 5th Nov 2020 12:04 pm
Vienna attack: The Muslim heroes who saved lives
A Palestinian McDonald’s manager and two Turkish-origin MMA-fighters risked their lives to save others amid the violence.
“We pulled the injured officer aside. I immediately looked for the wound and tried to stop the bleeding with my hand. That did not help. So, I took off my jumper and tried to stop the bleeding with that instead. After 15 minutes the ambulance came.
“The assassin was still nearby. I went to the ambulance, but they were all in shock, they couldn’t move. I went back to the policeman. I was in shock myself and don’t remember who was standing next to me. But all of a sudden two young men came and helped to bring the wounded to safety.”
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/4/heroes
What did the white Euro bystanders do? Ran like hell with pants full of feces.
https://youtu.be/jorJh8DTMVM
Abraham van Helsing on Thu, 5th Nov 2020 12:07 pm
“Vienna attack: The Muslim heroes who saved lives”
We’ll give them a medal before we put them on the “Orient Express”.
Abraham van Helsing on Thu, 5th Nov 2020 12:11 pm
“FamousDrScanlon – all the girls want to fuck me & the guys all want to be me.”
Extremely unlikely if you know who the real FamousDrScanlon is:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FnIl2FnvUzg&t=187s
(the dumpster dweller loser with the orange hat)
FamousDrScanlon on Thu, 5th Nov 2020 12:19 pm
New York Democrat Ritchie Torres elected as the first openly gay Black member of Congress
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ritchie-torres-mondaire-jones-new-york-congress-first-openly-gay-black-man-congress/
OH NO MAGA-tards, the end is nigh!
Abraham van Helsing on Thu, 5th Nov 2020 12:32 pm
New York Democrat Ritchie Torres elected as the first openly gay Black member of Congress
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ritchie-torres-mondaire-jones-new-york-congress-first-openly-gay-black-man-congress/
OH NO MAGA-tards, the end is nigh!
Absolutely! New York is for da jews and darkies. Expect entire Israel to be exodussed to Upstate New York, courtesy EU, after the implosion of the ZOG-empire and subsequent Muslim Brotherhood revolutions in Egypt and KSA, making jewish life in Palestine impossible.
https://documents1940.wordpress.com/2018/08/19/erdogans-real-neo-ottoman-motivations/
“Erdogan’s Real Neo-Ottoman Motivations”
Duncan Idaho on Thu, 5th Nov 2020 12:40 pm
Even if Biden wins, millions of Americans voted to reelect a ‘dangerous sociopath’: conservative
https://www.alternet.org/2020/11/even-if-biden-wins-millions-of-americans-voted-to-reelect-a-dangerous-sociopath-conservative/
The States– I been back long enough, wife wants out again, I’ll go along.
I did make it over 2 years!
zero juan on Thu, 5th Nov 2020 12:49 pm
Widdle juanPpee, don’t kid yourself stupid, you are not famous and not interesting. You are just insane and wasting space on this obscure forum. Please leave!
FamousDrScanlon said New York Democrat Ritchie Torres elected as the fi…
Davy said Most folks never get taught to count above 50 apem…
FamousDrScanlon said Vienna attack: The Muslim heroes who saved lives A…
The Board said DavVee, FamousDrScanlon is famous, or he wouldn’t…
FamousDrScanlon said Still no winner declared? Such is life in a banana…
FamousDrScanlon said Imitation is the highest form of flattery. It happ…
More DaVeetroll ID fraud said bochen787 on Thu, 5th Nov 2020 11:41 am The repug…
the board on Thu, 5th Nov 2020 12:52 pm
“The States– I been back long enough, wife wants out again, I’ll go along.
I did make it over 2 years!”
Dumbcan, please leave. The US needs more assholes like you to leave. You are just a rich fuck that thinks he is politically correct and intelligent when the opposite is true. Nothing out of you over several years is worth reading. Pretty much all you do is cry and moan like a child with TDS. Bye. Don’t let the door smack you in the ass.
Abraham van Helsing on Thu, 5th Nov 2020 12:55 pm
What’s that talk about civil war, all of sudden?
“PIERS MORGAN: Nobody’s stealing the election Mr President, so stop stoking the fires of civil war, let the votes be counted, and if it turns out you’ve lost, go gracefully, and put democracy before your bruised ego”
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8917567/PIERS-MORGAN-Calm-let-count-votes-Mr-President.html
N.B. for Piers Morgan’s England, the Balkanization of the US would mean complete geopolitical disaster: overnight their preferred ally would evaporate and Brexit would be exposed for what it is: a geopolitical blunder of the first order. England against the rest of the world, what could possibly go wrong?
dratrepus tak i just saw a shopped pix of whitey supertard president trump as a karen on Thu, 5th Nov 2020 12:56 pm
LOL
Abraham van Helsing on Thu, 5th Nov 2020 12:58 pm
The States– I been back long enough, wife wants out again, I’ll go along.
I did make it over 2 years!
Storm clouds are gathering over the Great Potato State of Idaho, that is about to lose its greatest son, who single-handedly defended humanity against the blond monster from New York.
The giant is admitting defeat, now that his wife has ordered him to pack his bags and to follow her to God knows where. Hopefully Antarctica.
dratrepus tak i just saw a shopped pix of whitey supertard president trump as a karen on Thu, 5th Nov 2020 1:00 pm
the caption says
I want to speak to polling manager
Abraham van Helsing on Thu, 5th Nov 2020 1:25 pm
The States– I been back long enough, wife wants out again, I’ll go along. I did make it over 2 years!
Seriously, our duncan, affectionately known here as donkey, is fleeing with the tail between his legs, as our donkey is not designed for heroism. Instead donkey’s fate in life is to obey his wife, in line with the limited spanwidth of his soul, if any.
Abraham van Helsing on Thu, 5th Nov 2020 1:32 pm
In Germany a Trump is waiting in the wings, ready to take over from Merkel:
Friedrich Merz
https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/friedrich-merz-gegen-cdu-fuehrung-attacke-a-la-donald-trump-a-2f04f2ee-70a0-4b0b-a59e-ff02d117d78f
He is by far the most popular contender for Merkel’s job, well, with the electorate, not the left-leaning party establishment. He is a heavy-weight, sidelined by the lefties. In my eyes the most likely next chancellor in the autumn 2021.
zero juan on Thu, 5th Nov 2020 1:45 pm
Widdle. What is a dratrepus? Sounds stupid!
dratrepus tak i just saw a shopped pix of whitey supertard president trump as a karen said the caption says I want to speak to polling manage…
dratrepus tak i just saw a shopped pix of whitey supertard president trump as a karen said
JuanP on Thu, 5th Nov 2020 1:45 pm
It’s not Duncan’s fault that you are a poor, impotent, sad fuck, Davy! Resenting people who are more successful than you will turn you into a lonely, bitter, old man. Go get a job, if you want more money, loser!
zero juan on Thu, 5th Nov 2020 2:32 pm
My Gawd, widdle got some balls and actually showed his real self. Ppee, you need to leave this country more than dumbcan. You are illegal trash and a lunatic. I bet you are I n an institution being paid for by taxes from REAL Americans. LMFAO @ Coward!
BTW it is delicious when you get triggered !
JuanP said It’s not Duncan’s fault that you are a…
FamousDrScanlon on Thu, 5th Nov 2020 2:47 pm
Why Does Biden Have So Many More Votes Than Democrat Senators In Swing States?
Profile picture for user Tyler Durden
by Tyler Durden
Thu, 11/05/2020 – 15:00
TwitterFacebookRedditEmailPrint
In most elections, the majority of votes are cast “down the ticket” – meaning, a voter supports both party’s presidential nominee and state Congressional candidates. In fact, according to Pew Research, “overwhelming shares of voters who are supporting Trump and Biden say they are also supporting the same-party candidate for Senate.”
Typically, this means that that the number of votes for a presidential candidate and that party’s Senate candidates are relatively close.
Twitter user “US Rebel” (@USRebellion1776), however, found that the number of votes cast for Joe Biden far exceeds those cast for that state’s Senate candidates in swing states, while those cast for Trump and GOP Senators remains far closer.
Recommended Videos
Chris Christie Helped Trump Prep For Debate, And All He Got Was This Lousy COVID-19
142K
14
Pause
Unmute
Loaded: 81.00%
Fullscreen
Up Next
In Michigan, for example, there was a difference of just 7,131 votes between Trump and GOP candidate John James, yet the difference between Joe Biden and Democratic candidate Gary Peters was a staggering 69,093.
In Georgia, there was an 818 vote difference between Trump and the GOP Senator, vs. a 95,000 difference between Biden and the Democratic candidate for Senator.
FamousDrScanlon on Thu, 5th Nov 2020 2:59 pm
What’s the Matter with People?
“But with all the blaming, name-calling and accusations, what is always unrecognized is that none of us has any choice over what we apparently do, or believe. We are entirely conditioned by our culture, by our genes, and by the circumstances that emerge in the moment.”
“I know this is an unpopular statement, (a “cop-out”), but scientists and philosophers are increasingly coming to this astonishing conclusion. Free will is an illusion.”
“Try to make sense of that — you can’t. People believe what they want to believe and their conditioning will lead them to act accordingly.
With few exceptions, we don’t want genocide, mass incarceration, racist crusades, or medieval laws. We just want the things we value to be retained or restored, or implemented for the first time.”
“It’s a complex system and we are conditioned creatures. There is no “fixing” this.”
“Accept that we are all doing our best, that we are now well into both economic and ecological collapse, on a global scale, and that this is how collapse plays out. It’s a complex system and we are conditioned creatures. There is no “fixing” this.”
https://howtosavetheworld.ca/2020/11/04/whats-the-matter-with-people/
The people calling for genocide and violence are armchair quarterback, physical cowards like clog. Go get in a street battle & get yourself severely wounded or killed & the clogs will shrug their shoulders & write you off as a necessary sacrifice for their cause.
Clog is pimping the same hate & kindergarten propaganda as certain politicians, think tanks & media owned by team right oligarchs, only clog is not motivated by power & wealth.
Old man Clog is trying to fill a bottomless pit inside of him that will never be filled by what happens in the world.
If the entire world went full out genocide & only conservative whites remained, goose stepping down main street, clog would still be the same. Still have that bottomless pit inside of him that will never be filled.
Clog want’s the world to change because he believes it will drive his demons away. It won’t.
Fighting your demons is a solo battle that has nothing to do with the world or anyone else.
Everyone can see poor clog acting more desperate. That’s because he’s in his mid 70’s & the clock is tick tick ticking.
https://youtu.be/Qq3BylHjiuk
zero juan on Thu, 5th Nov 2020 3:13 pm
Hey, famousfuck, juanPpee, quit the hypocrisy. You are a nasty fucking troll so no need for the above article
Abraham van Helsing on Thu, 5th Nov 2020 3:36 pm
Europe about to give the finger to US globalists:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8918219/Macron-calls-strengthening-border-controls-EUs-Schengen-zone.html
“Macron calls for strengthening of border controls in EU’s Schengen zone following spate of jihadist attacks in France and Austria“
Open borders no more. Preserving identity more important.
We got rid of the jews, we’ll get rid of darkies.
Europe: 640 million, nuclear armed to the teeth.
China: 1350 million
US: merely 330 million, divided to the core.
UK: hard Brexit coming up, could be dismembered.
Everything is ready for the anti-anglo blow.
The International Jew apneaman/famousdrscanlon can pretend to behave as if he has everything under control, that he can afford to take on Russia and China and at the same time plot for the demise of american whitey, using mass third world immigration as weapon. I’m telling he is leaning way to far out of the windiw and risking his physical destruction, of himself and his ilk.
Europe got rid of the vermin 1942-1944.
Russia between 1938-1953.
Now the cleanup is going to begin in slow-lane North-America. They are not invincible.
FamousDrScanlon on Thu, 5th Nov 2020 3:39 pm
Have you ever heard the phrase:
‘Never let them see you bleed’?
Apparently not.
Duncan Idaho on Thu, 5th Nov 2020 3:41 pm
Joe Biden’s popular vote lead is now larger than the populations of these 22 states
https://www.alternet.org/2020/11/joe-bidens-popular-vote-lead-is-now-larger-than-the-populations-of-these-22-states/
But the Fat Boy can still steal it?
REAL Green on Thu, 5th Nov 2020 3:45 pm
Stop bein mean to Davy y’all. He’s gonna cry his widdle self to sleep agin tonite.
Abraham van Helsing on Thu, 5th Nov 2020 3:53 pm
Prescient article, writte, shortly before the elections:
https://counter-currents.com/2020/11/he-can-only-lose-if-its-stolen/
“He Can Only Lose If It’s Stolen“
Again: winning or losing the elections is undesirable, c.q. irrelevant.
Instead the current social polarisation should be increased in order for white America to reach “escape velocity”, away from this kosher organized shithole society.
The Board on Thu, 5th Nov 2020 3:54 pm
JuanP,
Why not take the lunatic off of your ignore list, and join in on the fun with everyone else?
Abraham van Helsing on Thu, 5th Nov 2020 3:56 pm
“Everyone can see poor clog acting more desperate. That’s because he’s in his mid 70’s & the clock is tick tick ticking.“
I’m mid-sixty, in exceptional good shape and can run circles around you, physically, morally and intellectually. You are merely a shabby TalmudTurk, about to meet his creator.
Antius on Thu, 5th Nov 2020 5:15 pm
I begin to suspect that it may be in Trump’s interest to lose this election. To white Americans, Trump is about to become a martyr cheated out of his rightful post by electoral fraud. In a political sense, he may be more valuable dead than alive.
Biden is likely to be a lame duck president from the start, without any mandate from the senate. And he will lead America into a second great depression, which he will carry the can for. A poison challis to be sure. That is assuming that his ill health or criminal past don’t conspire to remove him from the white House, allowing Harris to replace him. She is an unpopular leader from the start.
All this should set the dems up for electoral losses in the mid terms and hopefully complete wipeout in 2024. That is assuming that Harris hasn’t led America into CW2 by then. She is exactly the sort of white hating, resentful black trash leader that has the potential to start CW2.
If Trump were reelected, it would only delay the final reckoning. He is more useful as a political martyr; the legend who defied the deep state. The more he gets punished after leaving office, the more righteous he will look.
Duncan Idaho on Thu, 5th Nov 2020 5:19 pm
The Fat Boys clownish coup attempt appears to be backfiring
https://www.alternet.org/2020/11/trump-coup/
But, who knows, he may be able to steal it.
Duncan Idaho on Thu, 5th Nov 2020 5:29 pm
Our tea party friends seem to be having fun:
https://i1.wp.com/digbysblog.net/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Screenshot-2020-11-05-at-3.03.46-PM.png?w=672&ssl=1
Duncan Idaho on Thu, 5th Nov 2020 5:38 pm
Samuel Beckett—
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Two_Men_Contemplating_the_Moon#/media/File:Caspar_David_Friedrich_-_Two_Men_Contemplating_the_Moon_-_Google_Art_Project.jpg
FamousDrScanlon on Thu, 5th Nov 2020 5:46 pm
Clog, what was the cost of your great Nazi-Select Europeans vermin hunt??
Just everything. Never talk about that do you Capetian vengeance? Being born into that ruin is what’s determined your life obsession.
You gave us too much detail about your life & that’s why it chaps your ass when I remind you that you’re only alive because Canadian forces liberated the Netherlands from Nazi tyranny & starvation when you were going hungry in mommy’s womb. You only made it because of Canadian blood & treasure.
Clog’s a Hongerwinter baby is part of the ongoing cost of the ‘vermin’ project.
The Famine Ended 70 Years Ago, but Dutch Genes Still Bear Scars
“A victim of starvation during the Dutch famine of 1944-45. Women pregnant during the period gave birth to babies who were affected by health problems throughout their lives.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/31/science/dutch-famine-genes.html
IN PICTURES: How German women suffered largest mass rape in history by Soviets
“Between the months of January and August of 1945, Germany saw the largest incident of mass rape known in history, where an estimated two million German women were raped by the Soviet Red Army soldiers, as written by Walter Zapotoczny Jr. in his book, ‘Beyond Duty: The Reason Some Soldiers Commit Atrocities’.”
https://english.alarabiya.net/en/features/2018/03/11/PICTURES-The-largest-mass-rape-in-history
Didn’t work out like you’re trying to spin it or your dead Nazi planners expected it to, now did it Hongerwinter baby?
‘The best laid schemes of mice and men’
FamousDrScanlon on Thu, 5th Nov 2020 5:50 pm
this one is for dumbcan the woke dude
“We’ll Get Fu*king Torn Apart Again In 2022”: Democrats Livid In Leaked Caucus Call After Crushing Election Losses
House Democrats were livid during a Thursday caucus call after the so-called ‘blue wave’ they were promised by pollster evaporated, and they lost several seats, according to leaked excerpts. According to AP’s Erica Werner, Virginia Rep. Abigail Spanberger was reportedly the most vocal – reportedly complaining that “we lost races we shouldn’t have lost. Defund police almost cost me my race because of an attack ad. Don’t say socialism ever again,” yelling that the party needs to “get back to basics.” House Speaker Nancy Pelosi reportedly interjected – saying that they “won the House and the presidency.” According to The Hill, centrist Democrats are now talking about throwing their support behind a challenger to Pelosi, with two prominent Democrats telling the outlet that they are reaching out to their colleagues about backing Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) to take Pelosi’s place. “He’s the only one prepared and positioned” to become speaker, one of them said. ” He bridges moderates and progressives better than anyone. And most importantly, he’s not Nancy Pelosi.” Jeffries immediately ‘shot down’ the idea, saying that he’s focused on keeping his spot as one of Pelosi’s top lieutenants. Heading into the polls, Pelosi enjoyed the overwhelming support of her caucus — facing no threat of a Speakership challenge — and Democratic leaders were eyeing big gains to their majority, with some estimates in the double digits. But the early returns revealed a different reality: Not only did Democrats lose a number of their most vulnerable members, they had not picked off a single Republican incumbent heading into Wednesday evening. The results immediately emboldened Republican leaders, who accused Pelosi and her party of being out of touch with the country. And Democrats on and off of Capitol Hill were left licking their wounds and questioning the strategic decisions that guided their party’s message throughout the campaign. “Pelosi needed to hammer Trump but instead she chose to let him slide,” said one former senior Democratic aide. “Last night should have been a bloodbath for Republicans.” -The Hill Perhaps Democrats should have mentioned their crowning achievement – Trump’s impeachment – even once during the election. Instead they mysteriously swept it under the rug.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/well-get-fuking-torn-apart-again-2022-democrats-livid-leaked-caucus-call-after-crushing
FamousDrScanlon on Thu, 5th Nov 2020 5:51 pm
Clog, tell em about the price.
‘They raped every German female from eight to 80’
Antony Beevor, author of the acclaimed new book about the fall of Berlin, on a massive war crime committed by the victorious Red Army.
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2002/may/01/news.features11
https://nationalpost.com/news/world/allied-soldiers-including-canadians-raped-thousands-of-german-women-after-second-world-war-research
FamousDrScanlon on Thu, 5th Nov 2020 5:57 pm
Hi price
Were Americans As Bad as the Soviets?
In the popular imagination, American GIs in postwar Germany were well-liked and well-behaved. But a new book claims that US soldiers raped up to 190,000 women at the end of World War II. Is there any truth to the controversial claim?
“The saddest event during the advance were three rapes, one on a married woman, one on a single woman and one on a spotless girl of 16-and-a-half. They were committed by heavily drunken Americans.”
“Just like their Red Army counterparts, the US soldiers, she believes, were horrified by the crimes committed by the Germans, embittered by their pointless and deadly efforts to defend the country to the very end, and furious at the relatively high degree of prosperity in the country. Furthermore, propaganda at the time conveyed the idea that German women were attracted to American GIs, further fueling macho fantasies.”
https://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/book-claims-us-soldiers-raped-190-000-german-women-post-wwii-a-1021298.html
FamousDrScanlon on Thu, 5th Nov 2020 6:22 pm
Speak it to them clog.
After WWII, Europe Was A ‘Savage Continent’ Of Devastation
“Imagine a world without institutions. No governments. No school or universities. No access to any information. No banks. Money no longer has any worth. There are no shops, because no one has anything to sell. Law and order are virtually non-existent because there is no police force and no judiciary. Men with weapons roam the streets taking what they want. Women of all classes and ages prostitute themselves for food and protection.
This is not the beginning to a futuristic thriller, but a history of Europe in the years directly following World War II, when many European cities were in ruins, millions of people were displaced, and vengeance killings were common, as was rape.”
https://www.npr.org/2013/07/24/204538728/after-wwii-europe-was-a-savage-continent-of-devastation
It was so worth it eh clog?
zero juan on Thu, 5th Nov 2020 6:28 pm
Ppee, you are not famouse, you are stupid
FamousDrScanlon said Speak it to them clog. After WWII, Europe Was A &#…
The Board said You can always tell that widdle daVvEe has had an…
FamousDrScanlon said Hi price Were Americans As Bad as the Soviets? In…
FamousDrScanlon said Clog, tell em about the price. ‘They raped…
FamousDrScanlon said this one is for dumbcan the woke dude “We …
FamousDrScanlon on Thu, 5th Nov 2020 6:34 pm
In addition to the wealthy nations, there’s a few dozen 3rd world countries that seem to have no trouble holding & completing a national election in a single day.
Perhaps the Americans should let in a bunch of immigrants with basic counting skills.
This might help.
https://youtu.be/r7xLmDZyV3g
FamousDrScanlon on Thu, 5th Nov 2020 6:36 pm
Count and Recount Every ‘Vote’ Until You Win
By Shama Tobin
First, they tried to bring him down with a sex “scandal” that almost elevated a creepy lawyer to a Democratic presidential contender. Then they cooked up a baseless impeachment. A virus came from China to later derail what could have been a landslide win for him. Then numerous blatant push polls tried to demoralize his supporters. (Just pick one. Less than a week before the election, an ABC News–Washington Post poll gave Biden a 17% lead in Wisconsin. Is there any way to sue these two corrupt companies?) They had written him off. Yet he not only survived, but also is winning — until a massive cheating operation came at the right time. The votes he won in Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, and Wisconsin should be enough to re-elect Trump. But he must be stopped. Just use the old refined trick. Joseph Stalin, the Russian communist dictator, once said it is not the people who vote that count, but the people who count the votes. The Democratic Party in the U.S., which is full of radical leftists and quasi-communists, understands this trick well. Not only that, but the party has perfected it. On Election Night in 2008, the Republican Senate candidate in Minnesota, Norman Coleman, led the Democratic candidate, Al Franken, by 726 votes. It’s enough to warrant an automatic recount. Two weeks later, Coleman’s lead was down to 215. The case then went back and forth to the court. Six months later, the election winner was certified. It was Al Franken, who then won by 312 votes. Later investigation showed that 1,099 felons, all ineligible to vote, had voted in the race. Writing in the Wall Street Journal, John Fund aptly titled it “Felons for Franken.” Keep recounting the “votes” until you win.
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2020/11/count_and_recount_every_vote_until_you_win.html#ixzz6cyEP4JBt
FamousDrScanlon on Thu, 5th Nov 2020 6:39 pm
Stealing Pennsylvania
By Lynne Lechter
Regardless of the outcome, Pennsylvania Democrat Governor Tom Wolf, the Pennsylvania state courts and the Democrat State Party have pulled every dirty trick in the books. They have changed the rules mid-game, using COVID scare as a cover, but their chicanery is so overt, the curtain has been pulled back on their thug tactics. First, months out, they claimed they would need three extra days to count the votes. Then, against all extant state laws, they said they would accept illegible or ballots with no security envelope postmark. Then, incredibly they said a voter’s signature on the mail-in ballot didn’t have to match the voter’s signature in the voter registration books. Banana Republic, anyone? But that’s just the everchanging rules of the game. On the ground, it got worse and worse. Certified poll watchers were not allowed into many Philadelphia polling stations. This is an old Philly trick. Why is it important? Because without a poll watcher from the opposite side, numbers at the poll can be jiggered. But even that wasn’t enough. Montgomery County, where this author resides and works as a Republican committeeperson, is the third largest county in Pennsylvania. Historically solid Republican, over more recent decades, the balance of power has gradually eroded to majority Democrat, with some pockets of resistance. However, in this election cycle, Republicans outpaced Democrats in new voter registrations significantly. They didn’t outstrip the Democrats, but the trend was pro-Republican. So, what happened on the ground in Pennsylvania yesterday? Dirty tricks, and lots of them. During the day in Montgomery County, Republican poll workers, and committee people received an alert. The Democrats had sent an army of spies into Montgomery County, wearing badges reading iterations of ‘Voter Protection.’ They were posing as poll watchers. In Pennsylvania, certified poll watchers can only work in the county of their residence. When these spies were asked for credentials, all they could produce were Philadelphia poll watcher certificates. They were all then barred from the polls. But they could not be barred from any area outside of the poll. My poll was visited by one such spy. He sat outside the poll all day long with a laptop. It was obvious what he was doing: counting in-person voters. Why? To divine how many mail-in ballots would be required to beat the in-person votes for President Trump that would be tallied first. But even that was not the only ‘quiver’ in their bag of tricks, as Nancy Pelosi loves to warn. Unsolicited, the Democrat-controlled Board of Elections sent unsolicited mail-in-ballots to many known Republicans, or at least claimed they did. Imagine my surprise, as a Republican committeeperson, when I went to vote to discover that I was listed as having received a mail-in ballot in the voter registration book. I had received no such ballot. Which meant I had no mail-in packet to return. Which meant under Governor Wolf’s new election rules, my vote had to be cast provisionally, and was thrown into a box, instead of being processed in the voting machine. Will that vote be counted with all the other provisional ballots?
https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2020/11/stealing_pennsylvania.html#ixzz6cyF0mqYb
FamousDrScanlon on Thu, 5th Nov 2020 6:39 pm
Christian preacher who said unmarried sex causes coronavirus dies from coronavirus
“As the Friendly Atheist points out, Baxter appeared in Bakker show in late March and lamented that “15 million people, that are living together unmarried.”
https://deadstate.org/christian-preacher-who-said-unmarried-sex-causes-coronavirus-dies-from-coronavirus/
FamousDrScanlon on Thu, 5th Nov 2020 6:42 pm
Doug Stanhope On…Marriage, Gay and Otherwise
https://youtu.be/Bmpf5-tuDEo
Cloggie on Thu, 5th Nov 2020 8:58 pm
I’m mid-sixty IQ, in exceptional good shape and can run circles around you, physically, morally and intellectually in my fantasy world. I am merely a shabby TalmudTurk, about to meet his creator.
But I am still better than you Ozark Dave
Davy on Thu, 5th Nov 2020 9:27 pm
I’m a gonna get REAL Fucking Mad if you fucks keep IGNORING MY DUMB ASS!!!!
so there
cuntfaces
FamousDrScanlon on Thu, 5th Nov 2020 10:29 pm
Steve Bannon’s Twitter Account Suspended After Calling for Execution of Dr Fauci and FBI Director Wray
Episode of his online show “War Room” was also pulled from YouTube
https://www.thewrap.com/steve-bannon-suspended-by-twitter-after-calling-for-execution-of-dr-fauci-and-fbi-director-wray/
Ba ha ha ha right-wing-nuts will have to go back to writing & handing out pamphlets & standing on stumps.
Your big tech overlords have spoken bitches.
Coronavirus cases skyrocket: Over 116,000 new cases, 53,000 hospitalized
Hospitalizations are also rising, with a spike in deaths to come.
https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/11/coronavirus-cases-skyrocket-over-116000-new-cases-53000-hospitalized/
Yabut Bannon dun tole me it’s just the flu & I always believe hardcore alcoholic nut-jobs
dratrepus tak braking whitey supertard president Putin will die without harvestation of pedifiler worship muzz karens on Thu, 5th Nov 2020 10:35 pm
Only master race chinks can perform harvestation of muz karens
REAL Green on Thu, 5th Nov 2020 11:45 pm
What’s dratrepus meen tak? It’s makin widdle davytard go even more crazier.
Davy on Thu, 5th Nov 2020 11:50 pm
American thinker is a oxi-moron FamousDrScanlon. And yer not famous FamousDrScanlion. You stupid cuntface LIAR!
Theedrich on Fri, 6th Nov 2020 2:40 am
Well the ghoul from the crypt has won. And the flesh-eating female chimaera will make sure that the U.S. is flushed down the cosmic commode.