New Worry of Potential World Resource Wars

Scientists have been warning for years that the inevitable peak in oil production could lead to serious skirmishes or even the next world war. There is disagreement over whether peak oil has already occurred or, if not, then how far into the future the finite supply will no longer be enough to supply soaring demand.

Likewise, potential shortages of food and lack of potable water have long been cited as resource problems that could lead to war. Even the landscape-changing effects of global warming have been cited as potential sources of major conflict.

Meanwhile, defense and security experts have recently begun wrapping their brains around a host of such resource issues that are causes for concern in a developing field of thought called “natural security,” according to an article today (Dec. 12) in The New York Times.

Natural resources have been fought over before, of course — gold and oil come to mind, and even land itself.

But as the world population soars, and demand for resources both plentiful and rare grows, natural security is expected to begin shaping national security policy.

Recently, China cut off supplies to Japan of “rare earth minerals” — hard-to-find and hard-to-mine elements with obscure names like europium that are vital to manufacturing cell phones, TV displays, electric car batteries and other high tech devices [See Jeremy Hsu’s piece on the importances of rare earths.] China later cut off the supply of rare earths to the United States. The events raised eyebrows of U.S. officials, who fear China’s stocks of rare earths and its well-developed ability to mine them are vital to fulfilling our own needs.

The Time article, written by Thom Shanker and citing mostly unnamed officials, also cites China’s burgeoning oil consumption and the looming fight over rights to oil and other resources in the Arctic seabed, which is being exposed as the ice cap recedes.

But as populations surge and resources become ever more scarce, you don’t need an unnamed official to figure out the obvious: To avoid fights, nations will have to find increasingly clever ways to share what the planet provides and also find smart ways to negotiate differences over who gets what.

LiveScience