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Page added on July 15, 2014
Natural Gas Discoveries Fueling Gaza Crisis?
Yesterday [Tuesday July 8th], Israeli defence minister and former Israeli Defence Force (IDF) chief of staff Moshe Ya’alon announced that Operation Protective Edge marks the beginning of a protracted assault on Hamas. The operation “won’t end in just a few days,” he said, adding that “we are preparing to expand the operation by all means standing at our disposal so as to continue striking Hamas.”
This morning, he said:
“We continue with strikes that draw a very heavy price from Hamas. We are destroying weapons, terror infrastructures, command and control systems, Hamas institutions, regime buildings, the houses of terrorists, and killing terrorists of various ranks of command… The campaign against Hamas will expand in the coming days, and the price the organization will pay will be very heavy.”
But in 2007, a year before Operation Cast Lead, Ya’alon’s concerns focused on the 1.4 trillion cubic feet of natural gas discovered in 2000 off the Gaza coast, valued at $4 billion. Ya’alon dismissed the notion that “Gaza gas can be a key driver of an economically more viable Palestinian state” as “misguided.” The problem, he said, is that:
“Proceeds of a Palestinian gas sale to Israel would likely not trickle down to help an impoverished Palestinian public. Rather, based on Israel’s past experience, the proceeds will likely serve to fund further terror attacks against Israel…
A gas transaction with the Palestinian Authority [PA] will, by definition, involve Hamas. Hamas will either benefit from the royalties or it will sabotage the project and launch attacks against Fatah, the gas installations, Israel – or all three… It is clear that without an overall military operation to uproot Hamas control of Gaza, no drilling work can take place without the consent of the radical Islamic movement.”
Operation Cast Lead did not succeed in uprooting Hamas, but the conflict did take the lives of 1,387 Palestinians (773 of whom were civilians) and 9 Israelis (3 of whom were civilians).
Since the discovery of oil and gas in the Occupied Territories, resource competition has increasingly been at the heart of the conflict, motivated largely by Israel’s increasing domestic energy woes.
Mark Turner, founder of the Research Journalism Initiative, reported that the siege of Gaza and ensuing military pressure was designed to “eliminate” Hamas as “a viable political entity in Gaza” to generate a “political climate” conducive to a gas deal. This involved rehabilitating the defeated Fatah as the dominant political player in the West Bank, and “leveraging political tensions between the two parties, arming forces loyal to Abbas and the selective resumption of financial aid.”
Ya’alon’s comments in 2007 illustrate that the Israeli cabinet is not just concerned about Hamas – but concerned that if Palestinians develop their own gas resources, the resulting economic transformation could in turn fundamentally increase Palestinian clout.
Meanwhile, Israel has made successive major discoveries in recent years – such as the Leviathan field estimated to hold 18 trillion cubic feet of natural gas – which could transform the country from energy importer into aspiring energy exporter with ambitions to supply Europe, Jordan and Egypt. A potential obstacle is that much of the 122 trillion cubic feet of gas and 1.6 billion barrels of oil in the Levant Basin Province lies in territorial waters where borders are hotly disputed between Israel, Syria, Lebanon, Gaza and Cyprus.
Amidst this regional jockeying for gas, though, Israel faces its own little-understood energy challenges. It could, for instance, take until 2020 for much of these domestic resources to be properly mobilised.
But this is the tip of the iceberg. A 2012 letter by two Israeli government chief scientists – which the Israeli government chose not to disclose – warned the government that Israel still had insufficient gas resources to sustain exports despite all the stupendous discoveries. The letter, according to Ha’aretz, stated that Israel’s domestic resources were 50% less than needed to support meaningful exports, and could be depleted in decades:
“We believe Israel should increase its [domestic] use of natural gas by 2020 and should not export gas. The Natural Gas Authority’s estimates are lacking. There’s a gap of 100 to 150 billion cubic meters between the demand projections that were presented to the committee and the most recent projections. The gas reserves are likely to last even less than 40 years!”
As Dr Gary Luft – an advisor to the US Energy Security Council – wrote in the Journal of Energy Security, “with the depletion of Israel’s domestic gas supplies accelerating, and without an imminent rise in Egyptian gas imports, Israel could face a power crisis in the next few years… If Israel is to continue to pursue its natural gas plans it must diversify its supply sources.”
Israel’s new domestic discoveries do not, as yet, offer an immediate solution as electricity prices reach record levels, heightening the imperative to diversify supply. This appears to be behind Prime Minister Netanyahu’s announcement in February 2011 that it was now time to seal the Gaza gas deal. But even after a new round of negotiations was kick-started between the Fatah-led Palestinian Authority and Israel in September 2012, Hamas was excluded from these talks, and thus rejected the legitimacy of any deal.
Earlier this year, Hamas condemned a PA deal to purchase $1.2 billion worth of gas from Israel Leviathan field over a 20 year period once the field starts producing. Simultaneously, the PA has held several meetings with the British Gas Group to develop the Gaza gas field, albeit with a view to exclude Hamas – and thus Gazans – from access to the proceeds. That plan had been the brainchild of Quartet Middle East envoy Tony Blair.
But the PA was also courting Russia’s Gazprom to develop the Gaza marine gas field, and talks have been going on between Russia, Israel and Cyprus, though so far it is unclear what the outcome of these have been. Also missing was any clarification on how the PA would exert control over Gaza, which is governed by Hamas.
According to Anais Antreasyan in the University of California’s Journal of Palestine Studies, the most respected English language journal devoted to the Arab-Israeli conflict, Israel’s stranglehold over Gaza has been designed to make “Palestinian access to the Marine-1 and Marine-2 gas wells impossible.” Israel’s long-term goal “besides preventing the Palestinians from exploiting their own resources, is to integrate the gas fields off Gaza into the adjacent Israeli offshore installations.” This is part of a wider strategy of:
“…. separating the Palestinians from their land and natural resources in order to exploit them, and, as a consequence, blocking Palestinian economic development. Despite all formal agreements to the contrary, Israel continues to manage all the natural resources nominally under the jurisdiction of the PA, from land and water to maritime and hydrocarbon resources.”
For the Israeli government, Hamas continues to be the main obstacle to the finalisation of the gas deal. In the incumbent defence minister’s words: “Israel’s experience during the Oslo years indicates Palestinian gas profits would likely end up funding terrorism against Israel. The threat is not limited to Hamas… It is impossible to prevent at least some of the gas proceeds from reaching Palestinian terror groups.”
The only option, therefore, is yet another “military operation to uproot Hamas.”
Unfortunately, for the IDF uprooting Hamas means destroying the group’s perceived civilian support base – which is why Palestinian civilian casualties massively outweigh that of Israelis. Both are obviously reprehensible, but Israel’s capacity to inflict destruction is simply far greater.
In the wake of Operation Cast Lead, the Jerusalem-based Public Committee Against Torture in Israel (Pcati) found that the IDF had adopted a more aggressive combat doctrine based on two principles – “zero casualties” for IDF soldiers at the cost of deploying increasingly indiscriminate firepower in densely populated areas, and the “dahiya doctrine” promoting targeting of civilian infrastructure to create widespread suffering amongst the population with a view to foment opposition to Israel’s opponents.
This was confirmed in practice by the UN fact-finding mission in Gaza which concluded that the IDF had pursued a “deliberate policy of disproportionate force,” aimed at the “supporting infrastructure” of the enemy – “this appears to have meant the civilian population,” said the UN report.
The Israel-Palestine conflict is clearly not all about resources. But in an age of expensive energy, competition to dominate regional fossil fuels are increasingly influencing the critical decisions that can inflame war.
The Guardian Earth Insights blog
13 Comments on "Natural Gas Discoveries Fueling Gaza Crisis?"
bobinget on Tue, 15th Jul 2014 4:05 pm
Is there anything surprising here to anyone following oil and gas?
Because US taxpayers foot the bill for Israel’s armaments, we should take a closer look at what damage we are sponsoring.
We are seeing the exact same aggression from China
over disputed off shore oil and gas.
More:
http://www.firstpost.com/world/china-tells-u-s-to-stay-out-of-south-china-seas-dispute-1620317.html
China tells U.S. to stay out of South China Seas dispute
BEIJING (Reuters) – China told the United States on Tuesday to stay out of disputes over the South China Sea and leave countries in the region to resolve problems themselves, after Washington said it wanted a freeze on stoking tension.
Michael Fuchs, U.S. deputy assistant secretary of state for Strategy and Multilateral Affairs, said no country was solely responsible for escalating tension in the region. But he reiterated the U.S. view that “provocative and unilateral” behaviour by China had raised questions about its willingness to abide by international law.
China claims 90 percent of the South China Sea, which is believed to contain oil and gas deposits and has rich fishery resources. Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Vietnam and Taiwan also lay claim to parts of the sea, where about $5 trillion of ship-borne trade passes every year.
China’s Foreign Ministry repeated that it had irrefutable sovereignty over the Spratly Islands, where most of the competing claims overlap, and that China continued to demand the immediate withdrawal of personnel and equipment of countries which were “illegally occupying” China’s islands.
“What is regretful is that certain countries have in recent years have strengthened their illegal presence through construction and increased arms build up,” the ministry said in a statement.
China would resolutely protect its sovereignty and maritime rights and had always upheld resolving the issue based on direct talks with the countries involved “on the basis of respecting historical facts and international law”, it added.
China “hopes that countries outside the region strictly maintain their neutrality, clearly distinguish right from wrong and earnestly respect the joint efforts of countries in the region to maintain regional peace and stability”, it added, in reference to the United States.
Recent months have seen flare-ups in disputes over rival offshore claims.
Anti-Chinese riots erupted in Vietnam in May after China’s state oil company CNOOC deployed an oil rig in waters also claimed by Vietnam, which has also accused China of harassing its fishermen
China’s official Xinhua news agency said authorities had on Tuesday deported 13 Vietnamese fishermen and released one of two trawlers seized recently for illegally fishing close Sanya on the southern tip of China’s Hainan island.
Relations between China and the Philippines have also been tested in recent months by their dispute over a different area. A Foreign Ministry spokesman in Manila said the Philippines strongly supported the U.S. call for all sides to stop aggravating the tension.
The United States wants the 10-nation Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) and China to have “a real and substantive discussion” to flesh out a call for self-restraint contained in a Declaration of Conduct they agreed to in 2002, with a view to signing a formal maritime Code of Conduct, Fuchs said.
A U.S. official said the issue was raised again last week with China at an annual Strategic and Economic Dialogue, a bilateral forum that seeks to manage an increasingly complex and at times testy relationship.
China’s Foreign Ministry said that it and ASEAN were carrying out the Declaration of Conduct and “steadily pushing forward” talks on the Code of Conduct.
Despite the tensions, the top U.S. Navy officer, Chief of Naval Operations Admiral Jonathan Greenert, was welcomed in Beijing on Tuesday by his Chinese counterpart, People’s Liberation Army Navy Admiral Wu Shengli.
bobinget on Tue, 15th Jul 2014 4:23 pm
Commenting of US sponsored “Iron Dome”.
Ostensibly, an Defensive weapon Missile Defense is living up to its reputation as a first strike weapon.
So far Israel has sustained zero deaths as a result of hundreds of primitive rockets launched by Hamas.
http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/05/iron-dome-israel-funding-us-ndaa.html#
Excerpts:
A little-noticed provision in the Defense Authorization bill that cleared the House on May 22 ties funding for Israel missile defense to increased participation by American firms.
Summary⎙ Print The committee report for the Defense Authorization bill ties funding to American participation and data sharing.
The $600 billion National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) almost doubles next year’s funding for Israel’s Iron Dome missile defense program, adding $175 million to the $176 million requested in President Barack Obama’s fiscal year 2015 budget proposal.
The Armed Services Committee report accompanying the bill, however, conditions the extra funding to assurances that American defense firms get a slice of the action and that the US government gets technical know-how from the program, which has cost American taxpayers $720 million since 2011.
“Given the significant US taxpayer investment in this system, the committee believes that coproduction of parts and components should be done in a manner that will maximize US industry participation in interceptor and battery deliveries for Israel’s defense needs,” the report states. The report goes on to state that the Armed Services Committee “expects” the Pentagon’s Missile Defense Agency to withhold the extra funding “until receipt and acceptance by the MDA of sufficiently detailed cost and schedule justification from the Government of Israel.”
The report language is but the latest move in a long-standing effort by Congress and US arms makers to ensure the United States gets access to the Iron Dome market and its Israel-made technology. Last year’s defense bill included initial funding to establish a US production facility and US arms maker Raytheon is set to start partnering with Iron Dome’s Israeli maker, Rafael, this year for co-production of the battery’s Tamir missiles.
The defense bill report requires that technical data for the program be shared with the Missile Defense Agency. And it puts the Obama administration on notice that if a further request for Iron Dome is made next year, the agency “must establish for the committee how those funds will resolve details and agreements needed for US-based coproduction of all-up-rounds (completely assembled missiles) and cover the export of Iron Dome technology to US and Israeli allies, including coproduction of parts, components, and all-up-rounds of those exports.”
poster comment:
If Israel were engaging Russia, Syria, China, Israel
could not count on Iron Dome to repel gornish.
J-Gav on Tue, 15th Jul 2014 4:31 pm
Nafeez is a smart cookie and he’s right to point out that there is something to note here … but it doesn’t explain everything in the Zionists’ minds by a long shot.
These gas discoveries have been known for some time and it wouldn’t be surprising at all if Israel has laid plans to snatch Gaza’s chunk and tie it into their own. There’s also some up off the Syrian coast, in case no-one noticed.
Still, the broader plan goes beyond that. This arrogant and belligerant little ‘country,’ (I think that’s almost a quote from Charles de Gaulle), or I should say, its extremist leaders, would love to stretch out to the Euphrates (‘Lebensraum’ I believe is what Hitler called that.)
Ah, the ironies of history! The U.S. ‘ally’ (see Philip Giraldi’s talk on the subject here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CkxuC0phFck
which,
by far, spies and steals the most, lobbies the most and influences U.S. foreign policy the most, leads Congress by the nose and makes our entire country look like a puppet, is bound and determined to get its way, militarily if need be.
Anti-Semitism? Hardly. Not only do ‘I have a number of Jewish friends’ as they say, I follow some of the saner folks in that country who are doing their best to counter this madness. Ultimately though, it’s less a question of religion than of power-hungry assholes, as usual.
BTW, the Muslims in the region are just as ‘Semitic’ as any Jew. This entire distinction is spurious and trumped-up, as is most of the reconstructed, so-called ‘Jewish history’. The pogroms were real, as was the Holocaust, let’s not question that. But the story built around that is 80% fabrication. Read Shlomo Sand’s brilliant book “The Invention of the Jewish People” for some insight.
Northwest Resident on Tue, 15th Jul 2014 9:10 pm
bobinget — I read that article earlier today on Zerohedge I think. Immediately after I read it, I did a google search for “China’s rights to Spratly Islands”, and found what I believe to be very credible information that directly disputes China’s supposed rights to those and other islands in that area. One of China’s head honchos basically said — America and Europeans all grabbed land during the expansion period, and if they did it, so can we. That is paraphrased, but accurate I believe.
There is NO DOUBT at all that China views the Philippines, Thailand and surrounding Asian countries as “lesser nations” that are ripe for plucking. They would already be well on their way to conquering and taking not just those islands but other pieces of strategic land as well, were it not for the American military presence and threat of force.
This is going to heat up in the future, just watch.
As far as “Natural Gas Discoveries Fueling Gaza Crisis?” — give me a break. When has their NOT been a crisis in Gaza these many years. Those people hate each other over there — they don’t need a reason to kill each other, just an excuse, and most of the time they don’t even need that. Any oil/gas that might be in the area just adds to the already long list of reasons to hate and/or kill each other.
GregT on Tue, 15th Jul 2014 9:11 pm
J-Gav,
Not all Jews are Zionists………..
Makati1 on Tue, 15th Jul 2014 9:49 pm
Northwest, in reply to your comment on another article:
Your Filipina friend is probably correct for the group she knows. Yes, Chinese ‘aggression’ is in the news here, but there are Chinese living and running businesses all over the Ps. Some of the largest corporations here are owned by Filipino families that are part Chinese. The current President is just another Western lackey believing that the US will actually go to war with China over those rocks. Maybe they will. The US is sure trying to start a war somewhere. Right now, their best bet is Japan/China.
The young Filipinos, who never knew the horrors of war, are under the false impression that they should fight for those lumps of rock, goaded on by speeches and promises of our own wonder boy Obama. The US will sell the Ps weapons, the only thing the US is good at these days. I fear climate change more than the Chinese. It is a lot of political wind that is not likely to turn to war here.
Contrary to some who think I am anti-US, I am not. I have 4 kids, 13 grand kids and 2 great grand kids living there, whom I worry about. But, I do enjoy seeing a bully get what he/it deserves, no matter who or what he is. Don’t you?
Northwest Resident on Wed, 16th Jul 2014 12:23 am
Makati1 — Thanks for your added perspective on that situation, and you may be right. In fact, I suspect like you that all the Chinese bluster is part of an effort to keep the Chinese people distracted by threat of war. And it works for the leaders of the USA and the various Asian countries too — it all could very well be just pre-planned bluster to keep as many people distracted from the real issues as possible. It is an age-old trick that seems to work very well. But then again, there are reasons to believe that China has serious intentions about finding and/or taking areas that might or do have oil, or other fossil fuels. Nobody needs them more than China right now.
It is hard to tell that you don’t actually hate America. But I’m glad to know that with all your kids and grandkids living here, you aren’t hoping for a dog-eat-dog bloodbath to then, man woman and child, when collapse hits. Sometimes, it seems you do hope for that.
I think the survey is more or less correct and that a high percentage of those in the Philippines are concerned about conflict with China, not just my girlfriend’s family and friends. If not, then the Chinese and American governments are just going to have to turn their rhetoric up a notch or two and fake a couple more conflicts. They must not let the people think to long on how bad they are getting screwed, not just in the Philippines, but everywhere else too.
Makati1 on Wed, 16th Jul 2014 6:01 am
So true, NWR. Sometimes I may come across as wishing disaster on the Us, but I would give anything for it to all go away. I don’t see any possibility of that happening. I only see a future there as worse than anything Americans have ever experienced.
A free people cannot comprehend a true police state when they have been taught that police are there to protect them. That is no longer true and will become more obvious as time passes. But those in most of the rest of the world have experienced such a life and know the signs of its coming.
This time, climate change, a collapsing economy and the flood of millions more Mexicans into the States is going to make the Great Depression seem like a mild headache. But, I cannot change anything, just observe. The bully needs taken down. Too bad the innocent, if there are any over the voting age, will suffer also.
simonr on Wed, 16th Jul 2014 7:38 am
Isnt the money paid to Israel by the US only allowed to be spent on weapons developed in the US ?
bobinget on Wed, 16th Jul 2014 8:30 am
Two items on this thread.
One: China Moves Oil Rig To New Location, Oil and Gas
Found.
http://www.chron.com/news/science/article/China-ends-drilling-operations-in-disputed-sea-5624205.php
Two:
Israel Orders 100,000 Gaza Residents to Leave.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/israel/10970015/Gaza-conflict-100000-Gazans-warned-to-leave-homes-as-Israel-steps-up-bombing.html
comment:
Israel’s politics are as hectic as ever.
http://www.albawaba.com/news/israel-gaza-590709
Binyamin Netanyahu’s cabinet is in disarray as the Israeli prime minister comes under fire from several of his most senior ministers for his handling of the crisis in Gaza.
The storm of public criticism from his own ranks resulted in the sacking on Tuesday night of the deputy defence minister, Danny Danon, a member of Netanyahu’s own Likud party.
Danon told the media on Tuesday that Hamas had humiliated Israel by setting conditions for peace, after Netanyahu said he was willing to accept the Egyptian-brokered ceasefire. Hamas claimed that it had not been consulted over the ceasefire conditions and rejected it.
“At a time when … Israel and the IDF [Israeli Defence Forces] are in the midst of a military campaign against the terrorist organisations and taking determined action to maintain the security of Israel’s citizens, it cannot be that the deputy defence minister will sharply attack the leadership of the country regarding the campaign,” Netanyahu said in a statement on Tuesday.
“These sharp remarks on the deputy defence minister’s part are irresponsible, especially given his position. They also serve the Hamas terrorist organisation as a tool to attack the government with.”
The divisions within the Israeli cabinet have been mocked by Hamas, with spokesman Fauzi Barhoum calling the Danon sacking a “victory for the resistance”.
Avigdor Lieberman, Israel’s hawkish foreign minister, split his Yisrael Beiteinu party from Likud – dismantling a crucial alliance for Netanyahu – having accused the prime minister of hesitation over a ground invasion of Gaza.
Lieberman also criticised the government for accepting an Egyptian-brokered ceasefire on Tuesday and called for an IDF ground assault and occupation of the Gaza Strip, arguing that a ceasefire would allow Hamas and other Palestinian militant groups to replenish their stock of weapons.
“All this hesitation works against us. We must go all the way, there is no alternative. We have to end this conflict with the IDF in control of all of Gaza … There is no other way to tackle the Hamas and Islamic Jihad terror that rules Gaza,” Lieberman said at a press conference on Tuesday night.
Netanyahu’s election last year was only possible at the head of a shaky coalition of rightwing parties, the cracks in which appear to be emerging over the war in Gaza.
Danon and Lieberman are not Netanyahu’s only critics. Israeli media reported that another senior figure on the Israeli right, Naftali Bennett, who leads the Jewish Home party, also voted against a ceasefire. Haaretz has reported that Lieberman and Bennett both claim they were not informed about the ceasefire by the government but heard about the proposed deal through the Israeli media.
Analysts have said the spats between Netanyahu and his rightwing cabinet colleages should be seen within the broader framework of Israel’s shaky coalition dynamics. Michael Stephens, deputy director at Qatar-based thinktank Rusi, said that the divisions were extremely damaging to the Israeli government generally.
“[The Lieberman] brand of rightwing populism is actually hurting Bibi more than he initially thought: Lieberman was always a threat but the thinking was Likud-Beitenu would contain him. Now it’s more clear that the right in general is fractured, and particularly at odds with the security establishment.”
Hugh Lovatt, Israel/Palestine project coordinator at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said the split could “help to balance out the ruling coalition and glue it around Netanyahu” as more extreme voices gave way to centrist elements of the government, such as justice minister Tzipi Livni, who have called for greater restraint on Israel’s part and a greater willingness to reach a ceasefire with Hamas.
“As far as Danny Danon is concerned, he is increasingly seen as a potential rival to Netanyahu within his own party and has been gaining increasing popularity. Netanyahu’s [sacking of him] may backfire: now that Danon is out of the cabinet he will have even more freedom to criticise him,” Lovatt said.
bobinget on Wed, 16th Jul 2014 8:31 am
Looks like Israel is adopting a “no more Mr nice guy policy”
rockman on Wed, 16th Jul 2014 1:45 pm
bob – I guess that’s what happens when someone shoots several hundred missiles and mortars at your civilian population. Imagine how the Israelis would be acting if Hamas was as efficient killing as Israel is.
Keith_McClary on Thu, 17th Jul 2014 1:02 am
I already posted this article in the forums.
But since when has Israel been “Mr. nice guy”? Since their terrorist Irgun (renamed “IDF”) systematically burned Palestinian towns with their residents inside in order to terrorize them into fleeing so Jews could help themselves to their property for free.
Nice Guys.