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Page added on August 8, 2014
Michael Lynch: Will Geopolitical Progress Mean Lower Oil Prices?
After a decade of elevated oil prices due to lost production in Iraq, Venezuela, Nigeria, Libya and Iran, the past few months have seen a fairly moderate response to the advances of ISIS in Iraq, the Israeli-Hamas fighting, and the rebellion in eastern Ukraine. Prices rose as much as $10 at the worst point, and have largely declined since then, with WTI under $100 a barrel and Brent threatening to break that level.
Of course, the US bombing of an ISIS position (for which information is scant) and expectations of further involvement saw an upward blip in oil prices: explosives in an oil producing region usually have that effect on traders, even if they aren’t near any actual production facilities. Longer-term, expect the effectiveness of ISIS to erode if the US carries out more active strikes, since their ability to zoom from place to place without being observed has allowed them to concentrate forces and overwhelm opponents. If the US uses drones to attack ISIS columns, or even to provide Baghdad and/or Erbil with information, ISIS’s progress is likely to be stalled.
Even better, the growing possibility that Maliki will accept a pension (gold or lead) could mean a unity government in Baghdad which would turn less militant Sunni’s against their current allies in ISIS, plus probably lead to some resolution of the Kurdish oil export constraints. ISIS might remain a factor in parts of the northwest (and Syria), but the threat will be perceived to have peaked, and oil prices should slump as a result.
Possibly they will seek an apocalyptic exit, blowing up the Mosul dam for instance. General von Cholitz is thought to have refused Hitler’s command to demolish Paris on retreating in World War II, but ISIS seems to be at the least as bloodthirsty as the Nazis and might do something similar. The damage as far south as the oil fields could be significant, but that remains a relatively small probability. (I’m not buying real estate in central Iraq any time soon, though.)
The winding down of Israel’s incursion into Gaza is a minor factor, since it was never perceived as having any effect on oil supply. The lack of sympathy for Hamas among most oil producers was the most important factor (recall that Saddam Hussein had claimed to shut down production for a month during the second intifadah but without impact).
Reports that Putin is considering pushing a compromise on the Ukrainian separatists are also good news, as this has been a major uncertainty in global markets, as the possibility of escalation was creating just the sort of uncertainty that would weaken already anemic economies in Europe. Removal of this threat would be good for equities markets (short-term) and Europe’s economies (longer-term) which would actually be bullish for oil demand and, theoretically, prices but initially at least the potential for less violence could depress oil prices slightly.
Where we’ll be next week is certainly uncertain, but the signs suggest oil prices might be in for another dip.
41 Comments on "Michael Lynch: Will Geopolitical Progress Mean Lower Oil Prices?"
ghung on Fri, 8th Aug 2014 12:56 pm
I’ve seen several comments by so-called credible experts that air strikes alone will have little lasting impact on Isis (IS, ISIL?). They’re too dispersed and will hide behind women and children (real men, they are). How long did the USSR use air strikes against the Afghani ‘freedom fighters’? To what result?
Boots on the ground I fear. My son-in-law (Ranger) and my nephew (Marine Gunny) both returned from Afghanistan in the last few weeks. Both expect to return to Iraq at some point.
Hope they’re wrong.
JuanP on Fri, 8th Aug 2014 1:12 pm
I hope we do not send troops to Iraq. Let the CIA and black and spec ops guys help the kurds defend themselves with minimal US bodies on the ground in combat areas. With that and air support, they should hold their ground.
This is the first time I read in the MSM that Russia is pushing the separatists to negotiate with Kiev, but it would go along with my theory that Putin wants to deescalate the fight in Ukraine.
Davy on Fri, 8th Aug 2014 1:19 pm
Forbes and Mikie reminds me of Lone Ranger and Tonto or Hollywood figures representing a distorted view of reality. Mike you gonna gives us an update on all those qualification like the previous post. I don’t want to forget to bow to your superiority.
eugene on Fri, 8th Aug 2014 2:15 pm
Re the article Can’t beat a true believer. They never learn. Same old BS I heard decades ago. Our technology will win every time and if it doesn’t we’ll make up a story for the poorly educated.
nemteck on Fri, 8th Aug 2014 2:41 pm
“…. oil prices should slump as a result”
From Oxford dictionary, “slump” means:
“sudden”, “rapid”, “great fall in price”. Oil price to $60? Not a good choice of a word.
nemteck on Fri, 8th Aug 2014 2:46 pm
“…. Putin is considering pushing a compromise on the Ukrainian separatists…” From where does this come from? Just the opposite is true. Putin introduced counter-sanctions and the EU and US call for even more sanctions of their own. It is spiraling into a dangerous zone.
Bob Owens on Fri, 8th Aug 2014 5:37 pm
The world is starting to fight over the scraps of remaining oil resources. This fighting will degrade the world’s ability to produce oil. Along with our declining production, we will start entering a darker world quicker than we would without the fighting. Exhibit A of how this process works is Libya. It won’t end for decades.
dashster on Fri, 8th Aug 2014 5:40 pm
“They’re too dispersed and will hide behind women and children (real men, they are).”
First, it is naive or outdated to think the the US military will not kill women and children. They have done it repeatedly in going after “suspected terrorists” in Afghanistan and Pakistan with their drones. But they will moan about it, deriding the men that they killed (along with the women and children) as being cowards. But as Bill Mahar pointed out, the people firing from 50,000 feet are the real cowards.
dashster on Fri, 8th Aug 2014 5:44 pm
“Oil price to $60? Not a good choice of a word.”
The author is an eternal oil optimist and has even referred to oil as “effectively infinite”. He feels the rise from the 1990s and early 2000’s to now is a secular rise due to political reasons, not from supply/demand problems caused by geology and the rise of Chindia.
Davy on Fri, 8th Aug 2014 6:33 pm
Dash, your point is US military are cowards. Damn, I personally know some brave lads. I find the US soldiers among the bravest and battle hardened of any in the world. Ask a Russian conscript what he thinks of his army. You are exactly right about innocents dying by the hands of the US. Funny how the friggen world crucifies the US over our military power until we are needed. “Then” even after we are needed complains about innocents. Last I saw that is the nature of war. At least we do not raise the black flag and begin executions. On the use of drones. It is an effective tool. I agree with some it is breeding extremism. But folks get a grip these Muslim fanatical dogs have one goal and it is not what we talk about here. It is death to most of our kind. It is death to our way of life. Dash, maybe you should turn a blind eye from this uncomfortable situation of US power projection and realize some of your comfort is because of it. There are few other counties lifting a finger or who can lift a finger right here right now and halt the rapid advance of “evil” incarnent.
Makati1 on Fri, 8th Aug 2014 8:24 pm
Dashster, you are correct on both counts. As are eugene and nemteck’s comments.
We have the largest, most expensive military in the world, and they have not won a battle for almost 70 years. Now they fight behind some desk, flying drones to kill indiscriminately. The US barbarians are no better the Attila the Hun’s except the Huns fought face to face and could be killed. Hard to kill a drone pilot 10,000 miles from the front.
As for the actual guys that can be killed … well they asked for it when they signed up. They are there for the money, the brag, and/or the false patriotism that was beat into them by their government’s propaganda. Rational, intelligent adults do not join the military voluntarily. The draft has been over 40 years ago. Anyone who has fought since has been fighting for the M.I.C..
dashster on Fri, 8th Aug 2014 11:36 pm
“Dash, your point is US military are cowards. Damn, I personally know some brave lads. I find the US soldiers among the bravest and battle hardened of any in the world”
Hard to believe that the military that can fire from 50,000 feet and push the button from a desert in Nevada can be among the bravest and battle hardened. I would put my money on the people that are on the ground getting hit from 50,000 feet.
MKohnen on Sat, 9th Aug 2014 1:01 am
Michael,
There is a growing worry, as I mentioned before, that the IS won’t actually push for Baghdad (and honestly, why would they?) Their next target is Saudi Arabia. If they go for that, how certain are you of your oil prognosis. BTW, I haven’t read anything anywhere other than this article about Putin pushing the insurgents in the Ukraine to compromise. Compromise what? Accept the US imposed government in Kiev? Forget their dead and embrace their killers? Accept Right Sector and NATO and just shut up? I can’t for the life of me imagine what kind of compromise the insurgents would make. It’s Kiev that has to compromise, and the US will make damn good and sure they don’t do that. Additionally, with the Ukraine rapidly running out of NG, do you really think things in the Ukraine will calm down?
Let me guess, Michael. When George Bush Jr. announced the war in Iraq was over, you jumped up and down for joy and started handing out cigars!
MKohnen on Sat, 9th Aug 2014 1:07 am
Davy,
When the CIA and US military had such a large role in creating the IS we see today, I don’t understand why everyone should be so grateful for the US fighting it. The US has to fight it, just like Frankenstein had to fight the monster he created. And as Obama stated, the US will only act insofar as is required to protect US interests.
Arthur on Sat, 9th Aug 2014 1:21 am
MKohnen, Putin has not recognized the two ‘Peoples Republics’ in Donbass and has discouraged the referendums, that happened anyway and got the civil war started. He can only hope that the insurgents hold out until the winter and that ISIS keeps the US busy. Once Donbass will be defeated, the US will instruct Kiev to try to recapture Crimea and Putin can no longer avoid war (although peninsula Crimea is extremely easy to defend, since the only access to that piece of land is a narrow landbridge, i travelled over it a few years ago on my way to Sevastopol and Yalta). Once the winter sets in the poor Ukis will start to understand the predicament they are in, without fuel, for ever, and perhaps be inclined to compromise and overthrow once again their unelected government.
Arthur on Sat, 9th Aug 2014 1:31 am
Indeed MKohnen, ISIS, that is secretly backed by Turkey, Kuwait, Qatar, sources within SA and until recently by the US.lol, who saw these jihadis as hired guns against Assad…. that ISIS is not going to take on Bagdad and with it Iran, but will continue to search for quick wins, in Iraq, Lebanon, Jordan and finally the main price SA. The more the US will try to bomb ISIS, the more grandeur they will get, and young jihadis from all over the world will continue to flock into the ME and join the fight.
Jimmy on Sat, 9th Aug 2014 4:34 am
USA is playing the balance of power game. When the Shiites are winning then support the Sunnis. When the Sunnis are winning support the Shiites. (Notice the recent flip?). There will be no boots on the ground. There might be a few special ops teams calling in air strikes and assassinating high value targets but that’ll be about it. The USA will find the Kurds until they get the upper hand. Then they’ll help out Turkey to rein in the Kurds. It’s called bleeding all sides aka the balance of power game. After they’ve all been bled hard for a few years they’ll all settle down and NATO will pick a winner and we’ll all buy oil of who ever that is. Only idiots like Plant see it as indecisiveness and weakness. It’s actually quite brilliant. Machiavellian, but rather smart if you’re the White House
Arthur on Sat, 9th Aug 2014 6:22 am
Brilliant? The idea behind the 2003 invasion was to add the entire ME as nice set of democratic vassal states to the US global empire. Instead they helped creating a Shiite and now Sunni empire. Where is the brilliance, I’m asking you? Who is going to stop the Caliphate? Answer: nobody. Oh, and forget about Israel too, no future. If there existed a Noble price for utter stupidity, these zionist clean break and 9/11 plotters would richly deserve it.rofl
This is going to be the Mother of all Backfires.
Makati1 on Sat, 9th Aug 2014 7:30 am
You got it Arthur. There are about 400 million Muslims in the ME and another billion scattered in most other countries. They are growing at about 1.4% per year. That is an increase of about 20 million per year. Even the expensive efforts of the MIC has only deleted a few million in the last 15 years, while the enemy has grown by over 25 million. Who’s winning?
Davy on Sat, 9th Aug 2014 7:36 am
MY God, this site is anti-American. I mean folks Geeze have you guys ever heard balance or is it your emotions coming out. I find you all as bad as the DC mafia in some ways with your prejudices. Let’s see my morning started out with an idiot from the P’s, then I hear from Dash, MK, and part of Art’s thesis. Balance is for example countering “dash bash” with the US drones as coward weapons and operators. Dash ever heard of IED’s, suicide bombers, and false soldiers/police. That’s what your buddies the Taliban use. Do you realize quite often these drones are supporting boots on the ground? It is an effective tool with an insurgency that hides in Pakistan and comes over and kills viciously anyone against them. MK, let’s see The US did not create ISIL directly. The ISIL infiltrated the moderate Syrian Sunni and capitalized on that and other overt ME power support like Qatar. Qatar make no apologies about starting that movement. Can you blame Qatar for doing this considering what the Russian supported Assad dog regime is doing to their brothers? Art/MK, the UKr are a people with a backbone. The US may have supported their rise to power but please I get tired of your blatant distortions of saying the US installed UKr government. It is poor writing and distorted truth. These people are not robots we turned on. They have legitimate grievances with the Russian people who have brought down horrible pain to the Ukrainian people over many years. Ask an east European about their Russian experience. Then I see the Forbes article on the dollar and Mikael Lynch article. This site promotes articles from numb-nut establishment cornucopian to reinforce the stupidity picture of the DC/Wall Street mafia. Rarely on this site do we see balance, undistorted articles of sound American positions, decisions, trends, and good values. Friggen don’t tell me there “aint” any. The lion share of the articles that are not pure geological in nature are ideologue propagandist spew in nature from the site headquarters to the foot soldier forum commenters. You all are “blame game” contestants to see who can blast America the hardest. And who the FRIG chooses these articles? Please stand up and put your name to this posting so we can hold you accountable for propaganda and ideologue spew. Proper science is balanced and undistorted by prejudices not what I am seeing here. I too am guilty of ideologue and propaganda by responding with “balancing spew” to balance the naked criticism and mob behavior of this site. And “NO” I am not moving on somewhere else that is what cowardice is dash. I have to step into the mud to balance the spew of anti-US vomit I am hearing here on a regular basis. It reminds me of fox news anti-matter.
Arthur on Sat, 9th Aug 2014 9:56 am
Davy, why not reread the intercepted Nuland telephone conversation where it was decided that co-tribalist ‘Yats’ should be the next PM. And so it happened:
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26079957
Handpicked.
Some story with the chocogarch Poroshenko (real name Waltzman):
deepresource. files.wordpress.com/2014/08/insider-poroshenko.png
Davy on Sat, 9th Aug 2014 10:10 am
No denying this “BUT” Art, there is more to the reality of this situation. The Ukr are 40MIL people there is much more political dynamics going on then this US meddling. I despise this meddling and the DC/Wall Street Mafia. This is a multi-tone grey situation not black and white like US policy contrarians will constantly preach over and over.
Jimmy on Sat, 9th Aug 2014 10:27 am
The caliphate ain’t exactly Erwin Rommel. Once they’ve served their purpose they will be destroyed. I suggest the Kurds will do the dirty work backed up with Turkish, USA and Iranian support. You Cassandra’s ain’t exactly geopolitical geniuses.
Makati1 on Sat, 9th Aug 2014 10:32 am
Davy, as long as we keep reading and hearing that “the Russians invaded and took Crimea by force” from Western ‘news’, what are we supposed to think? The rest of the world knows that the Crimean’s voted to join Russia and Russia accepted the offer. Too bad they did not accept the other eastern parts that wanted to leave the Ukraine. This would all be over now.
The US is guilty of over throwing another democracy in the name of Empire building. Nothing new there either. That has been their method since WW2.
Jimmy on Sat, 9th Aug 2014 10:38 am
http://cenaa.org/analysis/the-middle-eastern-balance-of-power-in-2012-and-its-implications-for-the-future/
GregT on Sat, 9th Aug 2014 1:05 pm
Davy,
An American internet news service has done an excellent series of mini documentaries covering the Ukraine crisis almost from the beginning.
Even though the reports are biased towards western propaganda, it doesn’t take long to figure out that the eastern Ukrainian people are fed up with a corrupt Kiev government, especially the Junta installed by the US. They have already held referendums to separate, and many have vowed to fight to the death. Even Kiev itself, has again erupted into violent demonstrations.
Russia is watching a humanitarian crisis unfold on it’s border that is being fuelled by the West. Arthur is correct, as usual, if Kiev does manage to take the East, the US will push for a War in the Crimea that will directly involve Russia.
If you do take the time to watch this series, watch it all, if you really want to get the entire picture.
https://news.vice.com/show/russian-roulette
Arthur on Sat, 9th Aug 2014 1:29 pm
Davy, the last thing people like you and me need is an artificial conflict between America, Europe and Russia, instigated by the Nudelmans and Kohns of this world. Russia is zero threat to you and me. The unparalleled dominance of white man is over for ever due to demography, modern values and others catching up. We should be concerned meanwhile about our own survival as a recognizable group of people in the future, a future that is not garanteed if we leave it to our ‘betters’ in Washington and Brussels. Russia is ready for a peaceful coexistence with America and Europe on an identitarian bases, where America and Europe are still under the whip of the, ahem, banksters. If forced to choose at gun point, I would always choose living in America over Russia. Nevertheless, at the moment, I have a preference for Wlad over the regimes in Washington and Brussels. I hope that Wlad survives for another decade and for regime change in Europe and America. In our interest, regardless of how much of a ‘basketcase’ Russia might be.
JuanP on Sat, 9th Aug 2014 1:41 pm
Greg, I agree that Russia will defend Crimea if Ukraine attacked it, but I don’t know how much of anything the people in power in Kiev control in Ukraine or how much longer they will last. Yesterday they were menacing to close all gas transit and the border with Russia, talk about shooting yourself on the foot. That would alienate both the Europeans and the Russians at the same time, when they have a few days left of gas, no money, deficits, debt, and the economy is in a deep recession, while they are looking forward to the worst winter of their lives.
JuanP on Sat, 9th Aug 2014 1:42 pm
And those gas transit fees are their main source of foreign income.
GregT on Sat, 9th Aug 2014 2:01 pm
The entire Ukrainian parliament needs to be reformed. The Ukrainian people have been bled dry by oligarchs and corrupt politicians that clearly do not have the Ukrainian people’s best interests in mind.
Russia has offered a humanitarian mission into the Donbas to be overseen by the UN. The UN security counsel has clearly sided with the hawks in DC. Millions of Ukrainian people’s lives are being put at risk.
Obama has already signed a trade deal with the EU to supply them US natural gas. US gas companies are ‘losing their shirts’, and need nat gas prices to rise considerably.
The last thing that the US administration is interested in, is a stable Ukraine. They will support this conflict for as long as it takes.
Davy on Sat, 9th Aug 2014 2:44 pm
Greg, I will watch the docs. Art, I agree to a point about Russia and with you and Greg to point with Ukr. I just find the whole crisis very grey as opposed to black and white by the DC/Wall Street mafia and both Art and Greg’s view of this crisis. Putt has some admirable points but trusting is not one of them Art. Ideally Ukr belongs with mother Russia for multiple reasons maybe parts to eastern Europe also. Art, you and Greg are the experts not me. I do appreciate your alternative insight. I hate the standard MSM boring fast food news.
GregT on Sat, 9th Aug 2014 3:25 pm
Davy,
The crisis in Ukraine is not at all black and white, as our media is telling us to believe. The overthrow of the democratically elected government was fomented by Washington. The Maidan turned bloody and violent when the ultra- nationalist provocateurs fired on demonstrators with sniper rifles, and burned people alive in Odessa.
If anything, Russia’s involvement was in reaction to DC meddling. Putin is not the bad guy here, as we have continually been led to believe. We should all be concerned about the people of Ukraine, as they are the victims here. They should be given the right to self determination, and the world should be standing behind them, instead of pointing fingers at everybody else.
westexas on Sat, 9th Aug 2014 3:53 pm
Michael C. Lynch (August, 2009): ‘Peak Oil’ Is a Waste of Energy
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/25/opinion/25lynch.html?pagewanted=2&_r=3&emc=eta1
“Oil remains abundant, and the price will likely come down closer to the historical level of $30 a barrel as new supplies come forward in the deep waters off West Africa and Latin America, in East Africa, and perhaps in the Bakken oil shale fields of Montana and North Dakota. But that may not keep the Chicken Littles from convincing policymakers in Washington and elsewhere that oil, being finite, must increase in price.”
westexas on Sat, 9th Aug 2014 4:05 pm
Curiously enough (given Lynch’s prediction for a long term oil price of $30), the spot Brent price in August, 1999 was $20.
Assuming a Brent spot crude price of around $105 for August, 2014, the 15 year average exponential rate of increase in Brent crude oil prices was about 11%/year (with some annual price declines along the way) from August, 1999 to August, 2014.
Given Lynch’s continuing predictions for lower oil prices, if we see a similar (11%/year average rate of increase) pattern over the next 15 years, the nominal price of Brent crude would be about $550 in August, 2099.
westexas on Sat, 9th Aug 2014 4:05 pm
Sorry, should be $550 in August, 2029.
Davy on Sat, 9th Aug 2014 4:09 pm
Greg if you have chosen sides then it is black and white. Russia is as much a dog in this fight as the West. Russia is no more trustworthy than DC mafia. Puttin is a admirable man in many respects much more than the whore in the White House “but” all politicians are whores and turn tricks. If any country deserves the right to meddle and play chess in Ukr it is Russia. It is their homeland region, common history, and ethnic brothers. Ukr and Russia are two countries tied at the hip. Now, I feel the US has a right to F**k Putt because that is what Putt has done to the west over the years. All Russians long for the glory of being a superpower just as China wants that status. Do think Putt would ever follow a US lead in a NWO? No, Putt has his own Russian version of a NWO. The NWO is collapse so all these politicians and their countries will crash and burn soon enough.
GregT on Sat, 9th Aug 2014 4:42 pm
Davy,
I have sided with the rights of millions of people to self determination. To democratically vote for their own futures, rightly or wrongly. This is none of our business, this is the business of the Ukrainian people. We should not be involved, other than to support their decision, whatever that may be.
GregT on Sat, 9th Aug 2014 6:59 pm
Juan said:
“I agree that Russia will defend Crimea if Ukraine attacked it,”
Juan,
If Ukraine attacked Crimea by herself, Russia would finish the War by dinner time. It would not be Ukraine attacking Russian Crimea, it would be NATO, backed fully by the US, and other countries controlled by the international banking cartels.
Ukraine is a proxy war, that is being used in an attempt to involve Russia. Official Russian involvement would immediately escalate this into a regional conflict, with the very real possibility of starting WW3.
JuanP on Sat, 9th Aug 2014 7:17 pm
Greg, I don’t see NATO attacking Crimea. Let’s hope I am right on this one. I don’want to consider the alternatives.
I agree that we seem to be baiting Russia into a war in Ukraine, and I think that if this is so, it is not a good idea. We should focus on adapting to the multiple predicaments we face at home. Every nation and person in the world should be prioritizing our response to these dilemmas. Playing this war games at this stage of things is foolish, IMO.
Davy on Sat, 9th Aug 2014 8:06 pm
Zero Chance of the US with conventional forces on the ground in the Ukraine. I repeat Zero. Maybe some SF’s to help train and organize the military. There may be training Ukr’s for advanced arms the US could give the Ukr’s. There will be no Nato move on Russia. This would be a NUK exchange scenario for Russia and could you blame them. We also have to look at the logistics of building up a force to ever confront Russia. Do you remember Iraq and how long that took? The issue of Ukraine attacking Crimea is a joke. The Russians would be target practicing. Ukr is no match for Russia in any scenario. If Russia invades Ukraine there will be a price to pay because the Ukr’s are no pushover either. Their troops are getting battle hardened, Ukr has advanced air defense, and I am sure there are plans for asymmetric war if a Russian invasion occurs. So I repeat Nato is a zero threat to the Russian homeland. There is no buildup of troops and an effective troop buildup would be a huge undertaking. For the US to be involved congress would have to get involved….no chance of that working out. This is a Russian/Ukr fight and it remains to be seen how important the Ukr rebels are to Putt. I imagine it is not worth the fight much longer. This crisis is already hurting the Russian economy significantly. Of course this adverse Russian economic situation is not posted here on this forum. We only hear the opposite of how the sanctions are destroying the dollar etc. The entire global trading system will suffer irreversible damage if this continues and escalated to a full blown trade war involving energy. This is already in the works with Ukr announcing halting gas and oil transit through Ukraine. The Euro area is systematically a TBTF area and cannot suffer collapse of the whole world will go down with them.
GregT on Sun, 10th Aug 2014 2:06 pm
“British Prime Minister David Cameron, speaking after a meeting Monday with NATO Supreme Allied Commander Gen. Philip Breedlove and the alliance’s top civilian official, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, said NATO must transform itself to counter a growing Russian threat.
“I support Gen. Breedlove’s plans to reinforce NATO’s headquarters in Poland, to preposition equipment and supplies and to schedule a series of exercises that will make clear we will not be intimidated by Russia’s aggressive behavior,” Cameron said after the meeting at Breedlove’s headquarters in Mons, Belgium.”
“We must also use the summit to ensure NATO is prepared to respond swiftly to any threat against any ally, including with little warning,” Cameron said, according to a recording on NATO’s website. “That means a multi-national, high-readiness force that can deploy quickly on exercises in the territory of an ally that feels threatened.”
http://www.stripes.com/news/leaders-call-for-nato-to-boost-military-presence-in-east-1.296835