Peak Oil is You
Donate Bitcoins ;-) or Paypal :-)
Page added on August 21, 2012
Mathematician Predicts Wave of Violence In 2020
“In a feature that recalls Asimov’s Foundation series and ‘psychohistory’, Nature profiles mathematician Peter Turchin, who says he can see meaningful cycles in history. Worryingly, Turchin predicts a wave of violence in the United States in 2020. Quoting from the piece: ‘To Peter Turchin, who studies population dynamics at the University of Connecticut in Storrs, the appearance of three peaks of political instability at roughly 50-year intervals is not a coincidence. For the past 15 years, Turchin has been taking the mathematical techniques that once allowed him to track predator-prey cycles in forest ecosystems, and applying them to human history. He has analyzed historical records on economic activity, demographic trends and outbursts of violence in the United States, and has come to the conclusion that a new wave of internal strife is already on its way. The peak should occur in about 2020, he says, and will probably be at least as high as the one in around 1970. ‘I hope it won’t be as bad as 1870,’ he adds.”
4 Comments on "Mathematician Predicts Wave of Violence In 2020"
BillT on Tue, 21st Aug 2012 12:32 pm
Look around… only a blind and deaf person cannot see what is coming. The elite are already arming the police with tanks and military gear and the military are being trained to quell riots. When the SHTF, hell will be roaming the streets of big cities all over the world.
SOS on Tue, 21st Aug 2012 5:45 pm
LOL.
DC on Tue, 21st Aug 2012 7:54 pm
Mmmm, when people are poor, or un-employed, or under-fed, or are forced to pay increasing amounts for decreased services, they tend to get pissed off, or are seeing there (former) rights slowly whittled away will do it too. Except this wave of of strife as he calls will be much worse than in 1870. A population 8xs larger, fewer resources, and an oppressive global police state, and few opportunities for most people, will see the next wave of protests will likely be a more or less permanent feature.
Wheeldog on Tue, 21st Aug 2012 9:03 pm
This prediction may not be as far fetched as it seems. The entire global economy is currently undergoing fundamental changes that will likely be difficult for many to accommodate. The single defining technological development of the 20th Century was the private automobile. It quite literally remade civilization in its own image resulting in major adaptations in housing, industry, transportation, infrastructure, socialization, politics, recreation – and even sexual morays. The age of the auto is now ending due to a host of reasons. There is currently nothing that can fill the gap it will leave resulting in frustration, confusion and hostility. Some interesting times ahead.