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Page added on September 19, 2016
Kunstler: Slowly, Then All at Once
The staggering incoherence of the election campaign only mirrors the shocking incapacity of the American public, from top to bottom, to process the tendings of our time. The chief tending is permanent worldwide economic contraction. Having hit the resource wall, especially of affordable oil, the global techno-industrial economy has sucked a valve in its engine.
For sure there are ways for human beings to inhabit this planet, perhaps in a civilized mode, but not at the gigantic scale of the current economic regime. The fate of this order has nothing to do with our wishes or preferences. It’s going down whether we like it or not because it was such a violent anomaly in world history and the salient question is: how do we manage our journey to a new disposition of things. Neither Trump or Clinton show that they have a clue about the situation.
The quandary I describe is often labeled the end of growth. The semantic impact of this phrase tends to paralyze even well-educated minds, most particularly the eminent econ professors, the Yale lawyers-turned-politicos, the Wall Street Journal editors, the corporate poobahs of the “C-Suites,” the hedge fund maverick-geniuses, and the bureaucratic errand boys (and girls) of Washington. In the absence of this “growth,” as defined by the employment and productivity statistics extruded like poisoned bratwursts from the sausage grinders of government agencies, this elite can see only the yawning abyss. The poverty of imagination among our elites is really something to behold.
As is usually the case with troubled, over-ripe societies, these elites have begun to resort to magic to prop up failing living arrangements. This is why the Federal Reserve, once an obscure institution deep in the background of normal life, has come downstage front and center, holding the rest of us literally spellbound with its incantations against the intractable ravages of debt deflation. (For a brilliant gloss on this phenomenon, read Ben Hunt’s essay “Magical thinking” at the Epsilon Theory website.)
One way out of this quandary would be to substitute the word “activity” for “growth.” A society of human beings can choose different activities that would produce different effects than the techno-industrial model of behavior. They can organize ten-acre farms instead of cell phone game app companies. They can do physical labor instead of watching television. They can build compact walkable towns instead of suburban wastelands (probably even out of the salvaged detritus of those wastelands). They can put on plays, concerts, sing-alongs, and puppet shows instead of Super Bowl halftime shows and Internet porn videos. They can make things of quality by hand instead of stamping out a million things guaranteed to fall apart next week. None of these alt-activities would be classifiable as “growth” in the current mode. In fact, they are consistent with the reality of contraction. And they could produce a workable and satisfying living arrangement.
The rackets and swindles unleashed in our futile quest to keep up appearances have disabled the financial operating system that the regime depends on. It’s all an illusion sustained by accounting fraud to conceal promises that won’t be kept. All the mighty efforts of central bank authorities to borrow “wealth” from the future in the form of “money” — to “paper over” the absence of growth — will not conceal the impossibility of paying that borrowed money back. The future’s revenge for these empty promises will be the disclosure that the supposed wealth is not really there — especially as represented in currencies, stock shares, bonds, and other ephemeral “instruments” designed to be storage vehicles for wealth. The stocks are not worth what they pretend. The bonds will never be paid off. The currencies will not store value. How did this happen? Slowly, then all at once.
We’re on a collision course with these stark realities. They are coinciding with the sickening vectors of national politics in a great wave of latent consequences built up by the sheer inertia of the scale at which we have been doing things. Trump, convinced of his own brilliance, knows nothing, and wears his incoherence like a medal of honor. Clinton literally personifies the horror of these coiled consequences waiting to spring — and the pretense that everything will continue to be okay with her in the White House (not). When these two gargoyle combatants meet in the debate arena a week from now, you will hear nothing about the journey we’re on to a different way of life.
But there is a clear synergy between the mismanagement of our money and the mismanagement of our politics. They have the ability to amplify each other’s disorders. The awful vibe from this depraved election might be enough to bring down markets and banks. The markets and banks are unstable enough to affect the election.
In history, elites commonly fail spectacularly. Ask yourself: how could these two ancient institutions, the Democratic and Republican parties, cough up such human hairballs? And having done so, do they deserve to continue to exist? And if they go up in a vapor, along with the public’s incomes and savings, what happens next?
Enter the generals.
53 Comments on "Kunstler: Slowly, Then All at Once"
Plantagenet on Mon, 19th Sep 2016 12:48 pm
Kunsten is right that we are at the “end of growth.” But somebody forget to tell the globalists, politicians, mainstream media, wall street mavens, other people who actually run the economy. Obama and Hillary and other globalists continue to imagine that if they can just get one more free trade treaty signed, just get the Fed to go to negative interest rates, just get the minimum wage raised another dollar—that economic growth will start up again just like in the old days. While Trump believes he will make American “great again” by restricting immigration—it will be like the good old days.
Will that really happen? I don’t think so.
Cheers!
paulo1 on Mon, 19th Sep 2016 1:33 pm
There is also the magic 4% growth meme….compounded, of course.
It will be interesting to see when ‘slowing growth’ is actually accepted, let alone 0 growth.
Sissyfuss on Mon, 19th Sep 2016 1:59 pm
Kunst, this General Confusion reporting for duty!
Sissyfuss on Mon, 19th Sep 2016 2:00 pm
I meant “this is”. Got that Slick Willie?
Davy on Mon, 19th Sep 2016 2:16 pm
It should be apparent we are heading for more centralized and authoritative control and this will clash with the reality of loss of control of society at large scales. These diametrically opposed forces will clash and cancel out until we have a new arrangement. Once food and fuel are in shortage the authorities will have to take over many normal market functions. Anyone who has followed 20th century history knows markets are very efficient when working properly. Centralized control rarely can duplicate the efficiency and productivity of properly operating markets. Once markets fail we will have no choice but for centralized control and the result will be a loss of economic activity and with that loss we are going to be in the vicinity of hunger. It is as simple as that economic activity equals food security. That fact is on few peoples radar screen but it should be. People might think about gardens at a minimum if they realized what is ahead.
The time frame is uncertain but I am feeling a hastening of the process. The reason I say I feel a hastening is public attitude. The economy and the political arena are a mess. Confidence is the glue that keeps the two firmly planted and productive. We are losing control ever so slowly until there will be a phase change. This phase change will be a “snap” of a string that will unravel the rope. The public allowed the post 08 policies despite the moral hazard. This time around I am not sure the public will let our leadership off so easy. They have made a mess of things and if another crisis occurs the chances of having public support may not be there. Without civil order we will see our modern civilization grind to a halt.
Who knows maybe we will have yet another new normal. Maybe this time it will be defining. The last “new normal” was just a status quo shift of corruption and wealth transfer. Those who were robbed didn’t even see it coming. Those who prospered should be worried this time around. The next round is going to dig deeper into the bone and muscle. The last go around cut through the fat and now the real challenges will begin. I am not sure on a time frame. If we continue to have a slow cycle of demand destruction we may see the process limp along for some years. People will be disenfranchised but it will be an attrition not an event. The scary part of this process is the break point is ever present. We will be lulled into the lights of an oncoming train. These are the most exciting times of my life but unfortunately the most surreal with danger and ominous foreboding. It is like the prelude to war but in our case the prelude to collapse.
Go Speed Racer on Mon, 19th Sep 2016 2:35 pm
In Kunstler We Trust
Apneaman on Mon, 19th Sep 2016 3:13 pm
Planty, why are you, a typical consumer zombie financial supporter of the globalists, bitching about them? Want to hurt the globalists? Stop fucking consuming and jetting all over the planet for dopamine hits and status points among your fellow consumer slaves. When the globalist fall then so will the JIT system and the outliers, like Alaska, will be the first to be cutoff. Don’t throw away any of your one month old and outdated “fast fashion” clothing girl. When JIT ends and the shelves are empty, you’re going to have to get creative and make your own “feminine hygiene” products.
penury on Mon, 19th Sep 2016 3:23 pm
My position is and has been that the collapse is upon us. It will not be sudden, but the fall of Rome took a thousand years and our empire is larger than Rome. The U.S may deny collapse for a little longer, but the number of homeless, unemployed, and people living in poverty in the U.S. shows the real state of affairs. For the bottom twenty percentile of U.S. collapse is a reality that they have been living with since 2009 and like a cancer it is extending upwards and will reach most of the lower eighty per cent shortly. But I think Kuntsler is correct, it does not matter who wins the beauty contest no one can slow or stop the collapse, however there is alwasys the possibility that the winner could escalate the problem in a hurry.
Cloggie on Mon, 19th Sep 2016 4:15 pm
“The chief tending is permanent worldwide economic contraction. Having hit the resource wall, especially of affordable oil”
Oil not affordable? The last time he looked at an oil price chart must have been in 2008. Everybody is promising peak oil, yet nobody delivers. It is not fair.
“As is usually the case with troubled, over-ripe societies”
Of all societies around, the US one is the most “unripe” (1776-1783). What does that mean: “over-ripe”? He probably means “saturated”.
Kunstler, like many here, confuses an energy crisis that will occur in a future, much more distant than until recently thought, with a demographic crisis / tipping point and a diminishing geopolitical weight of the US in the global arena, with which America struggles to come to terms with.
Kunstler is focused on stupid “human hairballs”, but it remains to be seen if it is not him who deserves a similar condescending description, bald as he is. He completely misses the point of what this election is really about: a defense of a geopolitical BAU position of exceptionalism and claims of global leadership and hegemony (Clinton) against the America First position of Trump, withdrawing from geopolitical BAU as pursued for hundred years now.
I haven’t an idea who is going to win this, but the recent collapse of Clinton (finally a collapse that did occur, hurray!) certainly worked in favor of Trump, as does the Islamic terrorist attack in NYC.
Apneaman on Mon, 19th Sep 2016 4:46 pm
pen, the Roman empire was powered by grain and slaves which are renewable. I think it is not unreasonable to suggest that it could take another 15 years before the rich countries are totally dystopian. The homeless you mention – all the folks thrown under the bus or in the process will continue even in the slowest decline. Get another economic crash, even a modest one, and those numbers could skyrocket fast. Methinks that millions are just hanging on and are 1 month of unemployment away from eviction. How the masses and TPTB respond could affect the speed.
The human created global techno industrial system is a freaking monster and I don’t think anyone understands it completely or knows how much resilience it has (too many variables), but it’s obviously in it’s twilight. I have found Prof George Mobus to be an excellent resource for getting a basic grasp on the beast (Systems Science). He has been studying systems and a bunch other things for a long time and does a great job of explaining some very complex analysis for the layperson (advanced layperson in my case;) George Mobus, the curious should check him out.
http://questioneverything.typepad.com/
Davy on Mon, 19th Sep 2016 5:36 pm
Clog; affordable oil is both on the supply and demand side. It is both individual but most importantly systematic and macro. Price is a perfect smoke screen for reality. In dysfunctional markets where price discovery is manipulated by rate repression and unnatural liquidity price might look affordable until you dig a little deeper. That is what we do here. We dig down and expose reality. The reality of oil is it is not affordable on multiple levels. The oil business is a mess due to a bubble oil market that has deflated. Oils true cost to the climate and environment is not accounted for. Oils destabilizing influence on society is under appreciated. Oil is a magical liquid that in the wrong hands kills. This is what oil has done to humans. Oil will be our poison pill.
JuanP on Mon, 19th Sep 2016 6:04 pm
This sucker is going down! Next week I may just watch a presidential debate for the first time in my life. I have always ignored politics and politicians because I have never believed in democracy. How could I believe in democracy when I think that most people are too stupid, ignorant and insane to vote in a reasonable way. Democracy is a cute idea in theory, but in practice it simply doesn’t work. Capitalism is the same and that is why I ignored the economy and economists most of my life, too.
But next week’s debate may be a lot of fun to watch in a twisted, morbid kind of way. Go Trump! Anyone but Hillary!
Apneaman on Mon, 19th Sep 2016 6:16 pm
Kunstler says soon most employment will be done by manual labour. He even fictionalized his vision in a novel “World Made by Hand”. Fine by me. I’m always up for a hand job – if the moneys right.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tOEOc9RrL8k
makati1 on Mon, 19th Sep 2016 7:02 pm
Even China’s newest super computer could not unwind the current international web of banking and commerce. The burp caused by one of the smallest shipping companies should be an alarm bell for all of us. That most banks are insolvent, many governments are spending their reserves or are printing money to stay alive and most Westerners and their wannabee friends are deeply in debt, makes the final collapse a sure thing and soon. Rome is no comparison. Apples and Squash.
I would like a few more years to firm up my preps, but I doubt we have that long. Many recent articles point to sometime between now and the end of 2017 as possible crash time. I tend to agree. Too many ‘black swans’ getting tired. One or more are bound to fall. When? Certainly not later than 2020. It will end BAU and bring on a world that we probably cannot even imagine and with a speed that will shock most who have not thought it through or are in denial that it will be fast when it happens. I think it will be a “Wham, Bam! Thank you ma’am!” event. We shall see.
Davy on Mon, 19th Sep 2016 7:39 pm
Makati1, can you tell me the nationality of that shipping company you referenced. Probably not because that would be inconvenient now wouldn’t it.
makati1 on Mon, 19th Sep 2016 7:47 pm
The US Police State is coming out into the open. The ned times are growing ever nearer for America.
“… the NYPD is organizing a joint task force of local, state and federal law enforcement agencies, including heavy weapons teams and canines, that will add 1,000’s of cops to the New York streets to conduct enhanced bag checks at subway stations throughout the city and monitor major traffic intersections.”
“Papers please!” Shades of Nazi Germany…
‘…areas around Chelsea are still cordoned off and completely inaccessible to commuters with residents having to show a utility bill to get back into their buildings.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-19/nyc-highest-alert-911-un-meetings-get-underway
Nationwide lock-down coming? Wouldn’t surprise me. A few more bombings…
makati1 on Mon, 19th Sep 2016 8:02 pm
The shipping company, for those who slept through the last few weeks:
“How Bad Will Retail Be Hurt by Hanjin’s Bankruptcy?”
“Stormy Seas Ahead For Shippers Following Hanjin’s Bankruptcy”
“Hanjin Reduces Fleet by Returning Chartered Carriers to Owners”
“Hanjin bankruptcy puts as much as $14 billion in cargo in limbo.”
“That sinking feeling: Why the bankruptcy of shipping giant Hanjin has so many companies worried”
“Hanjin bankruptcy could impact oil prices”
“Indian firms hit by Hanjin bankruptcy”
“The ripple effect from the Hanjin Shipping bankruptcy”
And on and on…
You look them up, if interested. Many sources.
Davy on Mon, 19th Sep 2016 8:29 pm
Come on Makati1 spit it out. Makati1, what part of the world is South Korea in?
makati1 on Mon, 19th Sep 2016 8:34 pm
The goodwill gesture you never heard about:
http://journal-neo.org/2016/09/19/of-monuments-and-america-and-the-division-of-people-and-state/
America…the land of the lost.
makati1 on Mon, 19th Sep 2016 8:43 pm
The sooner this arrogant nation is brought to its knees the better.
“America in Asia: Arrogant, Unapologetic, and Ready for More Conflict”
http://journal-neo.org/2016/09/19/america-in-asia-arrogant-unapologetic-and-ready-for-more-conflict/
“The United States exists an entire ocean away from Asia, yet its policymakers, politicians, and even Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter have declared America’s “primacy” over the region, vowing to assert itself and its interests above all nations actually located in Asia. … Fact checking the US President and various US ambassadors’ rhetoric regarding America’s true record in Asia points out a nation of infinite arrogance, unapologetic for the enormous and enduring suffering it has brought quite literally from an ocean away, and proves with its current actions elsewhere throughout the world that it is ready and willing to sow yet even more chaos.”
Boat on Mon, 19th Sep 2016 9:21 pm
Mak,
China needs the US in that part of the world. It was the US that saved them from the Japanese.
makati1 on Mon, 19th Sep 2016 9:31 pm
Boat, something that happened 70-80 years ago does not translate into what is happening now. You are throwing up a bit of propaganda you swallowed long ago. Too bad. Americans cannot see their irrelevance in today’s world. China today is not the China of the 30s. The US has no business meddling in Asia. None.
As for the PS, Spain ruled/plundered them for about 370 years. The US took over the plundering and ruled them for 50 years. They are finally almost free and plan to keep it that way. The new prez is willing to use diplomacy and negotiate a settlement with China. American ‘diplomacy’ is with guns and bombs. The sooner it is brought to its knees, the better for the rest of the world. Wait and see.
Boat on Mon, 19th Sep 2016 10:09 pm
mac,
Yea the P’s can thank the US for their independence today. When China kicks the P’s off their fishing grounds and moves in drilling rigs we’ll see how the strong man Durante will respond. Btw why are the P’s accepting patrol boats from Japan? It’s Japan and the US talking about patrolling those islands together. China isn’t going to like that.
makati1 on Mon, 19th Sep 2016 10:54 pm
Boat, the Ps would have regained their ‘freedom’ AFTER Japan was defeated. There was zero need to invade and destroy most of the country, killing hundreds of thousands of Filipinos, unnecessarily, and destroying the beautiful city of Manila in the process. It was nothing more than a resource grab by the US at the time. MacArthur should have been hanged for his crimes.
You suck up the propaganda you call history and want others to believe it too. Try studying the other side’s view of what happened. You may be shocked at your American past.
Cloggie on Mon, 19th Sep 2016 11:49 pm
“As for the PS, Spain ruled/plundered them for about 370 years. The US took over the plundering and ruled them for 50 years. They are finally almost free and plan to keep it that way. The new prez is willing to use diplomacy and negotiate a settlement with China. ”
The Tibetians may have less than benign feelings towards the Chinese.
There is no such thing as a benevolent power. Life is amoral and the tale of rising and declining powers. Individuals are mere insignificant cells in political bodies.
China is rising fast in geopolitical significance, the US is declining. Brzezinski already knows that a global US empire won’t happen. Trump understands that too and is doing the only logical thing: seek alignment and detente with Russia.
Geopolitics is about the formation of winning/dominating alliances. The great white Christian world needs to accept Russia as a worthy ally rather than a territory that can be exploited by oligarch vermin like between 1991-2000.
Cloggie on Mon, 19th Sep 2016 11:55 pm
“You suck up the propaganda you call history and want others to believe it too. Try studying the other side’s view of what happened. You may be shocked at your American past.”
So would you Bill, if you fully understood WW2. Even you are the victim of US propaganda, swallowed from your youth. For 100 years the US has been nothing but an operation to attempt to bring the entire world under control of the self-chosen. WW2 was the transformation of provincial backwater US, but with gigantic economic potential mainly thanks to oil, into a global hegemon, all by design since 1933.
https://socioecohistory.files.wordpress.com/2011/03/judea_declares_war_on_germany.jpg
Cloggie on Tue, 20th Sep 2016 12:06 am
“China needs the US in that part of the world. It was the US that saved them from the Japanese.”
Japan swallowed Manchuria.
USA swallowed Japan.
Spare me your liberation drivel, you sound like the apneafool. Geopolitics is about bigger fish swallowing smaller fish.
Did the chicken taste good tonight?
makati1 on Tue, 20th Sep 2016 12:59 am
Cloggie, actually, I had a steak from Australia and a baked potato and butter from New Zealand last evening. I also had a nice slice of blueberry cheesecake from the Starbucks downstairs. I plan to enjoy what luxuries I can, while I can, on occasion. My health is very good, no meds, and I figure, baring accidents or war, I have 10-20 years left to experience the fall. Do you?
At least I do not swallow American bullshit and call it facts.
makati1 on Tue, 20th Sep 2016 1:00 am
BTW: Total cost for that meal and dessert was about $7.50 US.
makati1 on Tue, 20th Sep 2016 1:08 am
I understand the background of both ww1 and ww2. Do you? The real version, not the sanitized Western version taught in Western schools. I know the history of Europe, perhaps better than you do. It has been a continent of wars and hate and rivalry for thousands of years and still is.
As for the last 100 years of US plunder and wars, I understand them also and am not proud of the fact that I am an American. I looked behind the curtain when I got the internet and saw reality. That is one of the reasons I decided to relocate and talked among my foreign friends for ideas. I made the decision to move here and have not regretted it in my 8 1/2 years. Nor do I see any reason to regret it in the future. I do not fear China. I fear the US.
Cloggie on Tue, 20th Sep 2016 4:00 am
“Cloggie, actually, I had a steak from Australia and a baked potato and butter from New Zealand last evening”
In my post of 12:06 I was addressing Boat, not you.
“I understand the background of both ww1 and ww2”
I doubt that since in earlier posts you still peddled the tired old “Nazis-wanted-to-conquer-the-world” where in reality there were trapped in WW2 when they came to the resque of their fellow Germans, forced to live in Versailles Poland. Official reading since: “Germans started WW2”.
I don’t fear China either and I am glad that they together with Russia block the US empire and hopefully will dismantle the empire and its hundreds of bases and send them home, to begin with from Europe, just like the Soviets withdrew from Eastern Europe.
Cloggie on Tue, 20th Sep 2016 4:52 am
Good speech by “human hairball” Trump:
https://youtu.be/0l1EYNoHY1A
Refuses to drag another 600k Syrian welfare tourists into the country to the tune of $400B, the intention of Clinton if she would become president.
Poor mr Kunstler: his group could very well loose control over the US to a “human hair ball”, the grapes are understandably sour for James.
makati1 on Tue, 20th Sep 2016 6:58 am
Cloggie: “I don’t fear China either and I am glad that they together with Russia block the US empire and hopefully will dismantle the empire and its hundreds of bases and send them home, to begin with from Europe, just like the Soviets withdrew from Eastern Europe.”
We agree on that at least. I doubt any one truly understands their history because it has been warped and manipulated for at least 150 years. The best we can do is look at all versions and come to our own conclusion. My ideas, thoughts and comments are from my perspective. I don’t expect them to be accepted by everyone, but some here are so obviously uneducated or just blind that I try to ignore them.
Ignorant flag waving patriots who support their country, right or wrong, are waving a red flag that I should ignore them and avoid their kind. They make it possible for the evil in the world to persist. Were there a hell, they would deserve the innermost circle. Enough ranting for today. It must be Tuesday afternoon in Europe now. Early evening Tuesday here. G’day!
Cloggie on Wed, 21st Sep 2016 5:35 am
Kunstler is a one trick pony, just like Heinberg. Peak oil, world running out of resources, bla-bla-bla. That’s not to say that their message is invalid for the longer term, but their message is irrelevant to explain what is currently going on in the US regarding the election process.
The real brand new phenomena is that European America has enough and Trump can be credited to have detected that undercurrent. Trump has proven that he is not just a succesfull real estate enterpreneur but also a political entrepreneur.
European America is moving to the right, just like Europe. These right-wingers understand the stuation much better than Kunstler:
http://www.counter-currents.com/2016/09/the-trump-phenomenon/#more-66252
Kunstler with all his criticism on present day America and the establishment, is essentially staying within acceptable boundaries as defined by said establishment. Trump is crossing the line and the public loves it, just like the Russian public couldn’t care less about what the Western media are writing about Putin.
Yesterday Obama adressed the UN in a farewell speech. He said something like that “this is not the time for strong men”, clearly hinting at both Putin and Trump. Obama is fighting a rearguard fight, because it IS the time for “strong men” resisting the post WW2 establishment of Wallstreet and media circles, defining the boundaries of political correctness. Political correctness is dead because El Maximo Lider Trump has said so.
From this you can get a grasp of the panic the leftist establishment is in:
https://www.lewrockwell.com/2016/09/no_author/real-hitlery/
Rightwingers in Europe love the development. If Trump wins, folks like Merkel are no longer backed by the imperial overlord but instead fair game for enraged masses who saw their nations destroyed by mass migration.
Here Merkel’s justice minister Maas chased out of an Eastern German town Zwickau:
https://youtu.be/kb3TYbBCAvQ
It is no longer possible for any Merkel government minister to show himself/herself in public, unless precautions have been observed.
Western Europe and certainly Germany are in Weimer 2.0 mode. The days of the American empire aka the West are coming to a end. If Trump wins the West will be in a state comparable to that of the Eastern block in 1985 when Gorbatchev rose to power and change became irreversible. The big difference is that like in the East you can change an economic system with a stroke of a pen, followed by several years of adaptation hardship. However mass migration can’t be undone other than with major violence.
Davy on Wed, 21st Sep 2016 6:45 am
What is the “longer term”? Until you define longer term the message of “invalid for the longer term” is invalid. Civilization is a process and a process with thresholds. We may have a longer term and we may not because we are in the vicinity of thresholds that represent minimums of systematic integrity. The most near term is the economy. Further out we have energy and the climate. Population has limits. How long can we add people to an overpopulated world? Social stability is a constant issue that cannot be quantified because social stability is ultimately human nature both rational and irrational.
The economy is in a new normal of control. This control is a corruption of markets from what would be traditionally called moral hazard. These involve disregard to accepted practices and norms. Business ethics are now altered by default. Clintons are an excellent example of accepted corruption. Debt is now employed not only to fund long term projects but also to stimulate demand. It is the diminishing returns to centralized control and debt that is near. You cannot continue to add debt and extend previous bad debt indefinitely. Corruption accepted or not cannot continue indefinitely. How far can corruption go? When corruption becomes corrupt? So when the thieves say it is theft. That is when they get caught stealing from each other.
We are well into a decay process since the 08 crisis. A crisis everyone has forgotten about and a crisis that is still with us. We are now habituated to a new normal but a new normal that is increasingly near the end of its term. What is next? Markets have limits. I suspect at some point a reported recession must happen. We appear to be in a recession process now. A recession now when so much is manipulated is like entering a new matrix without footings. We have deflating bubbles that have been contained but at the expense of normality and with the result of consequences. Many consequences are unintended so present new challenges when old challenges are not solved. We have bubbles deflating this can’t bode well for a new economic matrix.
Declining aggregate demand is evident by real indicators across the board with consumption. We know these are masked by number that are manipulated, goal orientated, and mathematically massaged. Manipulation is within the corruption of wealth transfer and private profits at the public’s expense. Goal seeking is the usual reports seeking a message not a reality testing. The messaging of number allows a mathematically accepted gauge that can be explained. These explanations are more like poker than policy. We basically have a civilization that is a Ponzi. That is what wealth transfer is when you have real shrinking growth. You have trickle down when you have real growth. Trickle down is the message Ponzi is the reality.
It appears oil will follow the economy at this point. Declining demand will likely never allow oil to reflate. We are in a new normal that will not allow the oil bubble we had. Wild price swings are likely as future supply is clearly damaged by the latest long period of lowish prices. A bubble must have the potential for economic inflation. Debt levels now are so great there is little reason to believe debt can levitate demand. Healthy long term growth appears to not be in the immediate cards because everything is pointing to a recession. We are stuck with low rates and increasingly negative rates. If we see an oil price surge it will be at the expense of what is left of a healthy economy. High oil prices will surely fissile at some point. If high oil prices are maintained it will be destructive. The initiation of further economic demand destruction will likely result. Oil appears to be stuck in a narrow range of too low and too high.
Abrupt climate change is a new phenomenon. It is too early to tell how destructive this will be so at the very least it will introduce uncertainty which is never good for business. The insurance industry is already being hammered with the new normal economic policies. Climate change surely will make matters worse. Longer term it appears food production growth will stall and decline. Too much and not enough rain is a result of climate instability and clearly this is what abrupt climate change is pointing too.
Social stability and population pressures are a big unknown because how do you model human behavior? That is a educated guessing game. We are global now and dependent. The global leadership realizes this but locally people don’t. Increasingly as the inconsistencies of the new normal progress social stability will surely be tested. Confidence is liquidity so this is yet another factor putting pressure on the economy and by extension oil.
Long term or now is the question but a better view is both. You can’t separate the long term from the now because this is a process that could break at any point. We can maybe say that we have the potential for a longer term survival with the ever present chance of a major break in social stability and economic activity. In a world with overpopulation and overconsumption per scientifically accepted carrying capacity ranges the economy, oil, and the climate pose risk hazards that are elevated at a minimum. To say a message is invalid short term and maybe valid long term is like saying the glass is half full or half empty. That is purely a subjective call. In today’s world of extremes of civilization per anything ever seen by man a half full or empty glass is not something to peg optimism on. It would be far better to say if we don’t mitigate multiple problems now we will not sustain our civilization into the longer term. If that ever becomes evident to a critical mass of people confidence is lost and the effort will not be there. We are faced with problems that require exceptional efforts. The luxury of prosperity appears to be over. We are now faced with a desperate attempt to extend a civilization built for prosperity. To continue what is no longer valid is a losing battle is that term long, short, or both?
Cloggie on Wed, 21st Sep 2016 9:54 am
“What is the “longer term”?”
Certainly not before November 2016.
Apneaman on Wed, 21st Sep 2016 12:10 pm
Clogged is a jew lover. He loves jew lover Trump and jew lover ALEX JONES.
“THE SIMMERING CONTROVERSY OF ALEX ‘BULLHORN’ JONES being a Zionist shill and de facto Zionist agent and spin meister has now spilled over onto Jones’ own public Prison Planet Message Board (see below)…despite alleged message-censoring efforts by Jones, personally, and his staff.
According to a number of postings which are excerpted below, Jones allegiance to Zionism stems from two things: 1) His core Protestant Fundamentalist-Zionist belief system, and, 2) Widely circulated reports that his wife is a Jew which would make their two children Jewish under Talmudic law.”
http://www.realjewnews.com/?p=387
Trump’s Deck Of Jewish Cards
http://www.realjewnews.com/?p=1057
So, if you support Trump and Alex, then by extension you are a Jew Loving boot licker.
Cloggie on Wed, 21st Sep 2016 1:06 pm
“Clogged is a jew lover. He loves jew lover Trump and jew lover ALEX JONES.”
Absolutely!
For the same reason I love Putin. He was brought to power by Berezovsky, but once in power he kicked the oligarchs out.
That’s the way to do it, there is no other way! Slime yourself into a position of power by pretending you love them and will do whatever they want and once you have fooled them into trusting you, show your true colors once you are in power. That’s how the genius Putin did it and eventually pushed Berezovsky into suicide out of pure embarrassment for the damage he caused for his tribe in making this colossal error of judgment:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/26/boris-berezovsky-inquest-spoke-suicide-roman-abramovich
Trump went as far as sending his daughter into marriage with a self-chosen… brilliant!
Cloggie on Wed, 21st Sep 2016 1:15 pm
“I don’t want your money:”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/video/news/video-1234154/Trump-Repub-Jewish-Coalition-don-t-want-money.html
Apneaman on Wed, 21st Sep 2016 1:25 pm
The human’s infinite capacity to fabricate and rationalize is on display once again.
O sweet Geebus take me home!
Clogged, you should have been a screenwriter or trashy novelist. Make a fine priest or shaman too.
Cloggie on Wed, 21st Sep 2016 2:28 pm
Vice-chancellor Sigmar Gabriel has a meeting with Vladimir Putin as we speak:
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-germany-gabriel-idUSKCN11R13P?il=0
Gabriel has advocated that sanctions need to be gradually lifted.
Meanwhile in Germany the anti-Merkel, anti-Soros and pro-Putin uprising is spreading the Erfurt, yet another East-German town:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VyK_UqqN-AY
At 1:17:12 the star speaker Bernd Hoecke.
The mood is exactly like in the months before the overthrow of the GDR-regime.
The downfall of Merkel and Fortress Europe is coming and could coincide with the election of Donald Trump in the US.
Meanwhile more details are leaking out about the EU summit in Bratislava; the EU president Donald Tusk has attacked Merkel for her policies; she is now totally isolated in Europe:
http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/711702/Donald-Tusk-Angela-Merkel-migrant-crisis-ISIS-attacks-Paris-Brussels
Furthermore:
https://www.ft.com/content/858a3fbc-7cf3-11e6-8e50-8ec15fb462f4
“Slovakia says Europe will make Brexit ‘very painful’ for UK”
Brexit? First see, than believe.
Cloggie on Wed, 21st Sep 2016 2:36 pm
Putin very conciliatory:
https://de.sputniknews.com/politik/20160921/312655050/putin-trifft-gabriel.html
We have many friends in Germany. Despite all the political problems, our friends remain friends and we know that. And our friends know we will remain their friends. Both countries should lean on the positive potential and find solutions. We will find them, but the sooner the better.
It’s coming:
http://www.counter-currents.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/pbm_globe_pf.jpg
Boat on Wed, 21st Sep 2016 4:59 pm
ape,
” So, if you support Trump and Alex, then by extension you are a Jew Loving boot licker.”
So why do you need to feel hate? Instead of lashing out at fellow humans, suck it up and be a man. Internalize those black thoughts and consider self mutilization.
Apneaman on Wed, 21st Sep 2016 6:27 pm
Boat, really?
“An inability to understand sarcasm may be an early warning sign of brain disease.
Sarcasm detection is an essential skill if one is going to function in a modern society dripping with irony.”
http://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/the-science-of-sarcasm-yeah-right-25038/?no-ist
I guess we’ll write it off to your many work years of PVC fume inhalation like all the other stuff you don’t get.
Satori on Wed, 21st Sep 2016 7:31 pm
“show me your papers”
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/trump-stop-and-frisk_us_57e2dccde4b0e28b2b51e33b
deja vu Germany in the 30’s ?
slowly and then all at once
Apneaman on Wed, 21st Sep 2016 10:03 pm
Think hopey dopey liberals are bad? They’re practically rocket scientists compared to this tribe of inbred Trumpateers.
See for yourself.
“JordanKlepper goes to a Trump rally to uncover the hottest new conspiracy theories around Hillary Clinton and President Obama.”
VIDEO
https://twitter.com/TheDailyShow/status/778572065146187776
OM fucking G
No nation with this many clueless morons can survive. LMAO
Boat on Wed, 21st Sep 2016 10:11 pm
ape,
All nations are filled with clueless morons. To dam many have survived. You are clueless. Lol
Apneaman on Thu, 22nd Sep 2016 12:06 am
Boat, I’m the most clueless shit for brains moron who ever lived. Look at me spending time here giving away all that free advice on how to lead a successful end times life. If I could only get that marketing thingy down, I could be the Tony Robbin$ of Doom. Chicks dig it though, so it’s all good.
Cloggie on Thu, 22nd Sep 2016 2:53 am
“Boat, I’m the most clueless shit for brains moron who ever lived. ”
Not only that, but also the most submissive character on this board. A white sort of inverse Friday:
http://i0.wp.com/numerocinqmagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/PJK11.jpg
Ready to defend anybody except his own European people.
China & Ahmed: you can have him.
Apneaman on Thu, 22nd Sep 2016 10:05 am
“Everything is a racket”
-Kunstler
Last year, Volkswagen (lying German bastards) got caught. This year it’s the other “can’t live without” dopamine releaser. Humans and their never ending bullshit.
US tests reveal major TV manufacturers may be manipulating energy ratings
Natural Resources Defence Council claims Samsung, LG and Vizio have designed sets that perform well in testing but disable energy-saving features in real-world conditions, causing energy consumption to soar
“Independent tests in the US have found that the energy consumption of Samsung and LG TV sets nosedives under test conditions but can soar by up to 45% in real-world use, raising questions of manipulation by software devices.
TVs from the top three best selling US brands – Samsung, LG and Vizio – have also been found to be switching off power-saving features without warning, as soon as consumers make “out of the box” changes to their main picture menu settings, which can double the TV sets’ energy usage.
If just a third of LG, Samsung and Vizio TV owners changed their sets’ pre-programmed picture settings, they could end up paying $1.2bn (£920m) extra on their energy bills and releasing an extra 5m tonnes of CO2 over the next 10 years, according to the Natural Resources Defence Council (NRDC), which commissioned the tests.”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/sep/21/us-tests-reveal-major-tv-manufacturers-may-be-manipulating-energy-ratings