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Page added on February 20, 2017
Kunstler: Fumbling Towards Collapse
In all the smoke and fog emitted by Trump and his adversaries, it must be hard to make out the actual issues dogging this society, and even when you can, to find a coherent position on them. This was nicely illustrated in Paul Krugman’s fatuous column in Monday’s New York Times, “On Economic Arrogance” — the title describes Krugman’s own attitude to a T.
In it, Krugman attempts to account for the no-growth economy by marshaling the stock-in-trade legerdemain of academic economics: productivity, demographics, and labor metrics. Krugman actually knows zip about what afflicts us in the present disposition of things, namely the falling energy-return-on-energy-investment in the oil industry, which is approaching the point where the immense activity of getting oil out of the ground won’t be worth the cost and trouble of doing it. And since most of the things we do and produce in this economy are based on cheap oil — with no reality-based prospect of replacing it with so-called “renewables” or as yet undiscovered energy rescue remedies — we can’t generate enough wealth to maintain anything close to our assumed standard of living. We can’t even generate enough wealth to pay the interest on the debt we’ve racked up in order to hide our growing energy predicament. And that, in a nutshell, is what will blow up the financial system. And when that department of the economy goes, the rest will follow.
So, the real issue hidden in plain sight is how America — indeed all the so-called “developed” nations — are going to navigate to a stepped-down mode of living, without slip-sliding all the way into a dark age, or something worse. By the way, the Ole Maestro, Alan Greenspan, also chimed in on the “productivity” question last week to equally specious effect in this Business Insider article. None of these celebrated Grand Viziers knows what the fuck he’s talking about, and a nation depending on their guidance will find itself lost in a hall of mirrors with the lights off.
So, on one side you have Trump and his trumpets and trumpistas heralding the return of “greatness” (i.e. a booming industrial economy of happy men with lunchboxes) which is not going to happen; and on the other side you have a claque of clueless technocrats who actually believe they can “solve” the productivity problem with measures that really only boil down to different kinds of accounting fraud.
You also have an American public, and a mass media, who do not question the premise of a massive “infrastructure” spending project to re-boot the foundering economy. If you ask what they mean by that, you will learn that they uniformly see rebuilding our highways, bridges, tunnels, and airports. Some rightly suspect that the money for that is not there — or can only be summoned with more accounting fraud (borrowing from our future). But on the whole, most adults of all political stripes in this country think we can and should do this, that it would be a good thing.
And what is this infrastructure re-boot in the service of? A living arrangement with no future. A matrix of extreme car dependency that has zero chance of continuing another decade. More WalMarts, Target stores, Taco Bells, muffler shops, McHousing subdivisions, and other accoutrement of our fast-zombifying mode of existence? Isn’t it obvious, even if you never heard of, or don’t understand, the oil quandary, that we have shot our wad with all this? That we have to start down a different path if we intend to remain human?
It’s not hard to describe that waiting world, which I’ve done in a bunch of recent books. We’re going there whether we like it or not. But we can make the journey to it easier or harsher depending on how much we drag our heels getting on with the job.
History is pretty unforgiving. Right now, the dynamic I describe is propelling us toward a difficult reckoning, which is very likely to manifest this spring as the political ineptitude of Trump, and the antipathy of his enemies, leaves us in a constitutional maelstrom at the very moment when the financial system comes unglued. Look for the debt ceiling debate and another Federal Reserve interest rate hike to set off the latter. There may be yet another converging layer of tribulation when we start blaming all our problems on Russia, China, Mexico, or some other patsy nation. It’s already obvious that we can depend on the Deep State to rev that up.
29 Comments on "Kunstler: Fumbling Towards Collapse"
penury on Mon, 20th Feb 2017 2:12 pm
Collapse is pretty much assured at this point.
From my view of the situation, the steps necessary to avoid collapse will not be taken, too much expense, not enough return. Steps to promote collapse are ongoing and will increase, economic ruin is certain. And the loss of a functioning government will be the final act.
Hello on Mon, 20th Feb 2017 2:13 pm
It almost seems as if Kunstler is depressed.
onlooker on Mon, 20th Feb 2017 2:17 pm
Kunstler as usual depicts quite well the utter mismatch between the reality of the situation and the spoken plans to address it much less actions
Plantagenet on Mon, 20th Feb 2017 2:23 pm
Kunstler has been predicting imminent collapse for years now, but this time he may be right.
Get yer popcorn ready!
Cheers!
diemos on Mon, 20th Feb 2017 2:31 pm
He’ll be right eventually.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CnR3Tyrg_10
IanC on Mon, 20th Feb 2017 4:51 pm
I find it baffling that more people are not aware of EROEI, depletion, and the basics of our energy economy. If Saudia Arabia investing in solar panels doesn’t throw cold water in your face, I don’t know what will!
I’ve been following this story for 10-12 years now and it has drastically affected how I see the world and prepare for the future.
pointer on Mon, 20th Feb 2017 5:00 pm
Thought experiment: Imagine we find some magical huge reservoir of oil that gushes out of the ground at zero cost. What would that do for the economy?
Sissyfuss on Mon, 20th Feb 2017 5:01 pm
Hello, Hello! Trump is president. What’s not to be depressed about.
Apneaman on Mon, 20th Feb 2017 5:15 pm
Yep, hard times in the land of plenty.
Four famines put more than 20 million at risk of starvation
http://www.france24.com/en/20170219-famine-threatens-nigeria-south-sudan-yemen-somalia
Of course it’s all relative for humans.
onlooker on Mon, 20th Feb 2017 5:19 pm
Puts it all into perspective right now. thanks AP
makati1 on Mon, 20th Feb 2017 5:34 pm
“… the real issue hidden in plain sight is how America — indeed all the so-called “developed” nations — are going to navigate to a stepped-down mode of living, without slip-sliding all the way into a dark age, or something worse.” (WW#3?)
Hubert on Mon, 20th Feb 2017 5:55 pm
99.9% of IDIOTS in America are just not getting it.
onlooker on Mon, 20th Feb 2017 6:07 pm
Su Hubert, I think that puts me in the 1%. We are screwed but so is the rest of the world lol
Jerome Purtzer on Mon, 20th Feb 2017 6:24 pm
Once The Donald finishes dismantling the toothless financial regulations put into place after 2008, the stage will be set for an even quicker financial meltdown. It should be interesting to see how long it takes. I’m sure the “Obama made it happen” narrative will soon follow.
Apneaman on Mon, 20th Feb 2017 6:28 pm
Good thing the federal money printing machine is still operational for the ever growing numbers of FEMA expenses. When it’s over everyone will be on their own. Just you and the neighbors to deal with the new reality.
Dangerous, Multipronged Storm Strafing Central/Northern California
https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/dangerous-multipronged-storm-strafing-centralnorthern-california
California braces for a new round of storms
Flood warning for 14 million in effect until Thurs
http://www.rgvproud.com/news/flooding-fears-spread-amid-n-california-rain/660174738
One day in the not too distant future, folks will wake up, do their morning routine, get in the car and they will be stopped by downed trees or power poles or washed out bridges and roads and the folks will angrily think (all entitled folks thing angrily) “where the hell are they?” The’re not there because the town or city or state has gone broke and cannot pay those workers everyone loves to bitch about – bla bla bla standing around…bla bla bla my taxes. At that point folks will need to get with their neighbors, You know the ones who you’ve lived next to for 12 years but never actually spoken with. Many will bitch and moan, but I would just wait them out and in the meantime do what humans do best – cooperate and do the best you can now that the nanny state is broke, over and gone.
Apneaman on Mon, 20th Feb 2017 6:32 pm
Malaga flash flooding causes chaos and destruction
“Residents awoke on Sunday to find their homes flooded, cars destroyed and businesses severely damaged.
Parts of roads were swept away and some roofs collapsed as a result of the huge volume of floodwater.”
http://www.itv.com/news/2017-02-20/malaga-flash-flooding-causes-chaos-and-destruction/
A quick fix would be to call an election in Spain and vote in a troop of climate deniers – problem solved.
makati1 on Mon, 20th Feb 2017 6:35 pm
Ap, the erratic/chaotic weather is going to take down everything eventually. Mother Nature holds ALL of the really big cards in this game. All we can do at this point is sit back and watch the action, having prepared our personal life boats as best we can. And, yes, our neighbors will be all we have to help us continue to survive in the world to come.
Apneaman on Mon, 20th Feb 2017 6:35 pm
Record temps in Chicago, Minneapolis and throughout the Midwest
We weren’t alone on our unseasonably warm weekend
“DETROIT – We saw record temperatures this weekend in Metro Detroit, smashing the high mark on Saturday by 7 degrees and breaking the Sunday mark by 2 degrees.
We weren’t alone. Communities across the Midwest experienced Un-February-like conditions and set their own records.
Chicago set records on Friday, Saturday and Sunday, reaching 70 degrees on Saturday. And, unlike here, Windy City temps are expected to hang in the 60s to maybe 70. We’re expected to drop into the 50s.
Minneapolis-St. Paul also saw a nice run of record weather, setting daily records on Friday, Saturday and Sunday and coming 1 degree short of setting the all-time February record for the region.
Pittsburgh, Columbia, Mo., Milwaukee and scores of other cities post new highs. ”
http://www.clickondetroit.com/weather/record-temps-in-chicago-minneapolis-and-throughout-the-midwest
“unseasonably warm”? No it’s the new abnormal. They can’t say that or else they might be unemployed. Soft denial all around. Stick with me, I’ll always steer you straight team.
onlooker on Mon, 20th Feb 2017 6:56 pm
NY FORECAST- THE NEW NORMAL?
WED
FEB 22
57° /48°
Turning sunny; not as cool
More
THU
FEB 23
68° /52°
Warmer
More
FRI
FEB 24
63° /54
Apneaman on Mon, 20th Feb 2017 7:00 pm
And here we have another deluded main stream liberal deep in his soft denial.
Climate scepticism is a far-right badge of honour – even in sweltering Australia
It’s up to progressives to fight back against this idiocy-promoting rhetoric and save the Earth
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/feb/20/sweltering-aussies-rightwing-climate-of-fear
He is right about the badge of honour, but wrong about saving the earth. The earth is not in jeopardy, the humans are. Further, AGW is not just another social justice issue that a few online petitions and marches can fix. It can’t be fixed. Too late now anyway, but if it wasn’t to stop it would take a war. A war upon oneself and family. Progressive dreamers are not different than clueless contraian denier fucks. They are all in denial. Denial is/was a very beneficial evolutionary adaption. Still is on the individual level, but for techno industrial man it’s a death sentence.
“This is my short version of Ajit Varki and Danny Brower‘s theory on denial.”
“This simultaneous combination of mutations is improbable and apparently has occurred only once on this planet.
The likely mechanism for how denial of mortality reality is implemented in the brain makes it quite broad in scope which means that humans tend to deny anything they find unpleasant, and also tend to have an optimism bias.
Denial is not a defect. Denial is what made us human.
Denial now prevents us from acknowledging and changing behavior that threatens our long-term survival and therefore denial may destroy us.”
https://un-denial.com/denial-2/theory-short/
Man it’s hard work enlightening folks. Full time job.
https://youtu.be/BPCjC543llU
onlooker on Mon, 20th Feb 2017 7:05 pm
The Architect: Humph. Hope, it is the quintessential human delusion, simultaneously the source of your greatest strength, and your greatest weakness.
Apneaman on Mon, 20th Feb 2017 7:55 pm
WHY FACTS DON’T CHANGE OUR MINDS
New discoveries about the human mind show the limitations of reason.
“Coming from a group of academics in the nineteen-seventies, the contention that people can’t think straight was shocking. It isn’t any longer. Thousands of subsequent experiments have confirmed (and elaborated on) this finding. As everyone who’s followed the research—or even occasionally picked up a copy of Psychology Today—knows, any graduate student with a clipboard can demonstrate that reasonable-seeming people are often totally irrational.”
“If reason is designed to generate sound judgments, then it’s hard to conceive of a more serious design flaw than confirmation bias.”
“This is one of many cases in which the environment changed too quickly for natural selection to catch up.”
“People believe that they know way more than they actually do.”
more
http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/02/27/why-facts-dont-change-our-minds
Apneaman on Mon, 20th Feb 2017 10:16 pm
Here’s a good one explaining how hysterical and alarmist the liar denial people operate.
How an Interoffice Spat Erupted Into a Climate-Change Furor
“A few weeks ago, on an obscure climate-change blog, a retired government scientist named John Bates blasted his former boss on an esoteric point having to do with archiving temperature data.
It was little more than lingering workplace bad blood, said Dr. Bates’s former co-workers at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Dr. Bates had felt he deserved his boss’s job at NOAA, they said, not the demotion he received.
“He’s retaliating. It’s like grade school,” said Glenn Rutledge, a former physical scientist at NOAA who worked with Dr. Bates.
But in what seems like a remarkable example of office politics gone horribly wrong, within days the accusations were amplified and sensationalized — in the pages of the British tabloid The Mail on Sunday — inciting a global furor among climate-change deniers.
Continue reading the main story
RELATED COVERAGE
THE DEBUNKER
No Data Manipulation in 2015 Climate Study, Researchers Say FEB. 7, 2017
‘A Conservative Climate Solution’: Republican Group Calls for Carbon Tax FEB. 7, 2017
Earth Sets a Temperature Record for the Third Straight Year JAN. 18, 2017
In America’s Heartland, Discussing Climate Change Without Saying ‘Climate Change’ JAN. 28, 2017
The Mail claimed that Dr. Bates had revealed fraud in important research by NOAA that supports the widely held belief that climate change is real. “How world leaders were duped into investing billions over manipulated global warming data,” the article’s headline said.
The scientific community swiftly shot down the accusations, and affirmed the accuracy of the research. And Dr. Bates himself later stated in an interview with a business news site that he had not meant to suggest that his former boss had played fast and loose with temperature data. “The issue here is not an issue of tampering with data,” Dr. Bates said.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/20/business/energy-environment/climate-change-dispute-john-bates.html?_r=1
It got all the denier fuck sticks worked up and it helped confirm their biases – fact free mission accomplished.
Apneaman on Mon, 20th Feb 2017 10:40 pm
Sweden and Undercovered Stories
https://youtu.be/MHRFb2HtFeI
joe on Tue, 21st Feb 2017 1:13 am
I saw a tv show laughing at Trump cause he said that Sweden had a terrorist attack. He made no such claim. The media is in meltdown. Trump is going up against forces that I never thought existed. I mean they play his words, he says ‘look what’s going on in Sweden, Sweden!’, he never says anything about terrorism, yet they laugh at him and show snaps of blonde white people as if Islam does not exist in northern Europe. In the cities of Europe, Christianity does not exist! Maybe in Eastern Europe, but not western. I tell my polish friends what a disaster EU membership will be for them, they don’t believe it, they say it won’t happen to them cause they are strong. They cant see it does not matter when the enemy is within, when it does not matter who you vote for cause they both follow the Third Way liberal agenda its a one party system. Thats the key point Trump is missing, thats the true media lie. Exterminate opposition by removing the white blue collar educated working class, they are obselete in the Internet, China owned and managed age anyway. They don’t need ranks of brave hardworking white explorers, they need trillions of dollars worth of consumers, that means women with money and lazy effete vain men who seek pleasure and ego wanks.
TheNationalist on Tue, 21st Feb 2017 5:31 am
Implying that all right wing people don’t understand the science of global warming is fake news. Perhaps they just know the lifeboats are filling fast? Perhaps there hatred of change is overwhelming? Perhaps kermit the frog will lead us towards a new age of identity politics? The uneducated hysterical masses in globalism love there echo chambers it seems.
Cloggie on Tue, 21st Feb 2017 9:02 am
Donald Trump may be president, but his brain is Steve Bannon. Most collapseniks here should pay attention, even if there is a 75% chance that they didn’t vote for Trump.
In 2010 Bannon wrote the script and directed the documentary “Generation Zero”:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k3SLtP10NQ8
Haven’t seen it, perhaps tonight.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Generation_Zero
The film examines the subprime mortgage crisis and financial crisis of 2007–2008 in a generational context. A 2010 review from The Richmond Times-Dispatch described Generation Zero as a horror film about the U.S economy.
While the film focuses on economic topics, including deficit spending and the 2008 bank bailouts, the film also heavily focuses on the 1960s. The film interprets the 1960s in the context of Strauss and Howe’s generational theory. In the film, Bannon is critical of his own generation. He commented: that the “baby boomers are the most spoiled, most self-centered, most narcissistic generation the country’s ever produced”, blaming the cohort for much of the current economic problems. The film describes the 1960s as a time in which young adults turned away from their parents’ values, saying they turned their backs on history. The film refers to “seasons of history” and concludes that the damage which was initiated in the 1960s, when young baby boomers turned away from their parents’ values, will be undone via war or other great crisis. The period of crisis is referred to as a “turning”. In Strauss and Howe’s theory, the period of crisis or war is referred to as the “fourth turning”. The film concludes with the line “history is seasonal and winter is coming”
Perhaps a suggestion as a seed for peakoil.com
Probably more substantial than ““It’s the End of the World as we know it and I feel fine” or ITEOFTWAWKIAIFF”
Ghung on Tue, 21st Feb 2017 9:09 am
The Nationalist said; “Perhaps there hatred of change is overwhelming? Perhaps kermit the frog will lead us towards a new age of identity politics? The uneducated hysterical masses in globalism love there echo chambers it seems.”
The uneducated masses that don’t know simple things like the difference between “there”, “their” and “they’re”? Jeez……
TheNationalist on Tue, 21st Feb 2017 9:57 am
Apologies Ghung, I see what I did their. I hate it when people do that! There not good spellars and I have gone and done it myself! Well they’re you go I didn’t know I was a comedian.
Send the fine in the mail, thanks