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Page added on May 18, 2015
Kunstler: Dead Nation Walking
Many people seem to think that America has lost its sense of purpose. They overlook the obvious: that we are striving to become the Bulgaria of the western hemisphere. At least we already have enough vampires to qualify.
You don’t have to seek further than the USA’s sub-soviet-quality passenger railroad system, which produced the spectacular Philadelphia derailment last week that killed eight people and injured dozens more. Six days later, we’re still waiting for some explanation as to why the train was going 100 miles-per-hour on a historically dangerous curve within the city limits.
The otherwise excellent David Stockman posted a misguided blog last week that contained all the boilerplate arguments denouncing passenger rail: that it’s addicted to government subsidies and that a “free market” would put it out of its misery because Americans prefer to drive and fly from one place to another.
One reason Americans prefer to drive — say, from Albany, NY, to Boston — is that there is only one train a day, it never leaves on time or arrives on time, and it takes twice as long as a car trip for no reason that makes any sense. Of course, this is exactly the kind of journey ( slightly less than 200 miles) that doesn’t make sense to fly, either, given all the dreary business of getting to-and-from the airports, not to mention the expense of a short-hop plane ticket.
I take the popular (and gorgeous!) Hudson River Amtrak train between Albany and New York several times a year because bringing a car into Manhattan is an enormous pain in the ass. This train may have the highest ridership in the country, but it’s still a Third World experience. The heat or the AC is often out of whack, you can’t buy so much as a bottle of water on the train, the windows are gunked-over, and the seats are often broken. They put wifi on trains a couple of years ago but it cuts out every ten minutes.
Anyway, even if Americans seem to prefer for the present moment to drive or fly, it may not always be the case that they will be able to. Several surprising forces are gathering to take down the Happy Motoring matrix. Peak oil is actually not playing out in the form of too-high gasoline prices, but rather a race between a bankrupt middle class unable to pay the total costs of motoring and an oil industry that can’t make a profit drilling for hard-to-get oil. That scenario is plain to see in the rapid rise and now fall of shale oil.
Nowhere on earth is there passenger rail that pays for itself. But, of course, you don’t hear anyone complain about the public subsidies for driving or air travel. Who do you think pays for the interstate highway system? What major airport is privately owned and operated?
Some of the decisions made over our rail system are so dumb you wonder how the executives on board ever got their jobs. For instance the train between New York City and Chicago never runs on time for the simple reason that Amtrak sold the right-of-way to the CSX freight line. CSX then tore up the second track because there was an antiquated state real estate tax on railroad tracks. As a result, freight trains have priority on the single track and the passenger trains have to pull over on sidings every time a freight needs to go by. Earth calling the New York state legislature. Rescind the stupid tax.
America is going to need trains more than it thinks right now, despite what the “free market” says. The condition of our trains is symptomatic of the shape of the nation. The really sad part is we missed the window of opportunity to build a high-speed system. Capital will soon be too scarce for that. But we still have a conventional network that not so many decades ago was the envy of the world, and we know exactly how to fix it. We just don’t want to. No will left. Apparently we’d rather just turn into the walking dead.
30 Comments on "Kunstler: Dead Nation Walking"
Nony on Mon, 18th May 2015 3:07 pm
The solution is busses. Not rail. Busses are mobile, scalable, moveable. It’s just yuppies don’t like them.
ghung on Mon, 18th May 2015 4:05 pm
Ignoring the Noob. I’ve ridden trains all over the world including in Soviet Russia and throughout Europe. They put the US rail system to shame and is a mode of transportation I prefer over all others, where and when available.
Buses suck because if there’s an ass like Noob sitting near you, you can’t move to a different car :-0
penury on Mon, 18th May 2015 4:16 pm
The rails are suffering from the case of greed. The trains are supported with Gov subsidies so that Warren and others can keep their billions because if the conditions become unsafe enough the voters will demand that the government supply the money to upgrade the tracks.Private corporations for some reason are not expected to maintain the necessary safety standards, that is what the gov is for. For all the de-railments and oil train explosions good old Uncle Warren should be in jail not in luxary
apneaman on Mon, 18th May 2015 4:40 pm
Fossil fuels subsidised by $10m a minute, says IMF
‘Shocking’ revelation finds $5.3tn subsidy estimate for 2015 is greater than the total health spending of all the world’s governments
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/may/18/fossil-fuel-companies-getting-10m-a-minute-in-subsidies-says-imf
James A Hellams on Mon, 18th May 2015 6:16 pm
I totally agree with Kunstler. However, I would add some very important things about railroading that Kunstler missed.
First, trains have been, are now; and will always be the most energy efficient means of transportation we will ever have.
Second, trains can be electrified with catenary or third rail. This makes it possible to run trains on every form of energy; because all forms of energy can be used to generate electricity.
Third, because every mile of track can be electrified; the trains and ONLY the trains can go from coast to coast NONSTOP WITHOUT BURNING ANY FOSSIL FUEL FOR ENERGY! ONLY THE TRAINS ARE TECHNOLOGICALLY CAPABLE OF DOING THIS!
adamx on Mon, 18th May 2015 6:54 pm
Nony, buses are not nearly as efficient as rail, and can’t easily be electrified. The only reason rail is expensive or difficult is because we sold and ripped up all the rail that used to exist, all over the US.
Rail could have been a huge hedge against this particular future (people not being able to afford cars) if it had been electrified and maintained. Instead it was ditched for the car for business reasons. Although Orlov went off the deep end somewhere, he was right that collapse is the fate of empire, the US will collapse, and the US is even less prepared than Russia was.
BobInget on Mon, 18th May 2015 7:12 pm
Premio class Busses in countries outside the US are great.
When a Mexican bus company uses a unit for say seven years, they sell it to Greyhound.
Greyhound rips out the good but tattered seats,
mops the floor, paints a dog on the side, puts in plastic benches, replaces warning signs, blocks heat and AC vents, changes the oil, locks the toilet door, crack a few windows to make poor people, feel at home.
Seriously, the contempt Greyhound has for it’s clients is palpable the second a person ventures onto that neon lit, scary ‘bus station’.
Greyhound only caters to folks so poor they can’t afford trains or planes.
steve on Mon, 18th May 2015 7:14 pm
I was thinking we could genetically engineer an animal like a T-Rex that we could ride from place to place or maybe a large bird that would fly us from place to place…
Nony on Mon, 18th May 2015 7:55 pm
Buses are way more efficient than cars and can be put all over the place. You don’t like them, because they don’t fit your image.
Bandits on Mon, 18th May 2015 8:10 pm
“Third, because every mile of track can be electrified; the trains and ONLY the trains can go from coast to coast NONSTOP WITHOUT BURNING ANY FOSSIL FUEL FOR ENERGY! ONLY THE TRAINS ARE TECHNOLOGICALLY CAPABLE OF DOING THIS!”
This is how shills with agendas make a point……they lie.
GregT on Mon, 18th May 2015 10:47 pm
Buses are not more efficient than cars unless they are full. Which much of the time they are not.
Nony on Mon, 18th May 2015 11:31 pm
Empty trains are even worse. And when you add in the billions of capital cost…ooh la la! But at least on a train you can act all yuppy liberal and not have to really confront the urban poor. Hypocrite!
GregT on Mon, 18th May 2015 11:47 pm
Buses need roads Nony.
Davy on Tue, 19th May 2015 5:01 am
James, the most efficient transport is walking, biking or riding a horse.
James, you are in wonderland with your electrifying trains. Much of that electricity comes from fossil fuels and probably always will because the build out of all sources are going to stop dead in their tracks in just a few years. The amount of AltE needed to propel a train is huge. We are going to need what little AltE sources get built out for lights and other small applications. WE are never going to scale up AltE to run a vast green BAUtopian train network or any network for that matter. This is just more hopium fantasy that deludes the greenies.
James, why do we need to go coast to coast with trains? We should be focusing on local applications of trains. We should be electrifying trains where there is some kind of reason to electrify them. We are very close to a point where there will be no manufacturing potential to do anything but use and try to maintain what we have. When oil goes into shortage all other energy forms and processes will likewise go into decline. James get out of your fantasy trip.
Consider the idea that of what we have is what we got attitude with both buses and trains. These are BAU assets that will need to be utilized. Great investment has been made in the last 100 years in both. I have also said many times all these American large pickup trucks can be used as busses. They become efficient when you load them up with people. Load the beds up with 15 people then the Ford F250 power stroke is more efficient than a Prius. When the long or short emergency comes transporting people on very reduced energy budget will dictate using pickup trucks as busses.
We have the rail lines and the roads in place. We will have to make do with what we have in just a few short years. This BAUtopian fantasy of a vast new transportation build out with EV’s and NatGas is just likely not to happen. We will struggle to keep what we have going. We are going to return to the rivers. You might laugh but this is the future: http://ahpcs.weebly.com/. Flat boats and steam power are efficient transport that should make a come back. I am not sure how large of steam power may come back. The golden age of steam stripped bare the river bottom forests. Small scale steam power is ideal for both train and ship.
I also want to make a BAU point on the American rail network currently. I am saying this because we constantly hear the anti-Americans bash the American train system. The American passenger network is an afterthought in America. It is more for tourism then use. The car culture did this. Yet, the fright rail system is one of the best in the world and one of the best maintained.
http://www.statista.com/statistics/264657/ranking-of-the-top-20-countries-by-length-of-railroad-network/
https://www.aar.org/BackgroundPapers/Americas%20Freight%20Railroads%20-%20%20Global%20Leaders%20Under%20a%20Balanced%20Regulatory%20System.pdf
simonr on Tue, 19th May 2015 7:20 am
Hi Dave
I guess its a matter of timescales here.
I saw a report recently that was predicting diesel hybrid trains that use bio diesel where there is no electric and can run on leccy where there is some.
This was forecast for the future.
The question is, will there be time enough to lay in the infrastructure.
Simon
Davy on Tue, 19th May 2015 9:09 am
Simon, this is where my doom comes in. I know there are so many things we can do in the laboratory and small industrial applications. Yet, these issues that require massive infrastructure changes on a global scale will just not scale IMHO. We don’t have the vital resources, human will, solvent financial system, and most importantly time. I doom because most if not all BAU fixes don’t scale in the physical or time frame.
We are done folks. Playing the hopium game in the name of the all important optimism mentality in this circumstance is delusional fantasy. It is dangerous and will end badly. Now is the time to man up and except pain, suffering, and decay of all those things dear to our heart. This is reality this is not a game show that we can walk away from. This is playing for keeps. We have precious few years if not months left to start adapting and mitigating the coming food and fuel crunch.
I mention food and fuel because these are the real crisis dangers. Food and fuel shortages will destroy our complex society. There are short term and longer term actions. They all need to focus on a world of less food and less liquid fuels. The primary actions are back to the land agricultural programs and every household or group should produce or preserve food.
Transportation options must be initiated to deal with the huge drop in discretionary transport. The majority of liquid fuels in a crisis will be dedicated to emergency services and vital economic functions. Allot of people will be left in the vacuum of a collapse. You personally can prep. I could go on and on but that is the gist of it.
James A Hellams on Tue, 19th May 2015 9:37 am
Bandits and Davy:
First, there is no hidden agenda to what I say. I am stating what is factually possible.
Second, we will need trains that run coast to coast. These trains will become absolutely necessary. When the oil collapse comes, it will hit aviation hard with a death blow. People, who have become used to flying will no longer be able to do this. Where will the trains be to take up the enormous demand for these travelers?
Third, you mentioned that electric power is generated by natural gas (a fossil fuel); which would generate the electric power needed for the electric trains. I agree with you that natural gas would be used to run the trains. However, you limit yourselves to only this energy source. Electric power can also generated by solar, wind, hydroelectric, geothermal; and other sources of energy. This is why I said that the trains could free themselves from all dependencies on fossil fuels for energy.
Fourth, you mentioned that our present rail system is not up to the task. I agree with you. Back in 1973, when we had the Arab oil embargo, we should have immediately started to make the investment in our rail infrastructure. We never did this; and now we will PAY DEARLY for this. We had 42 years of time to prepare for the time when we needed the trains; and we wasted every bit of this time; when the Arabs reopened the spigots; and we went back to destroying our rail infrastructure, to build more highways and airports. I thoroughly agree with Kunstler that we are a walking dead nation.
Fifth, very few people understand the magnitude of what is coming our way. Some have unrealistically said that we can have oil production at the rate of 111 million barrels per day. This is 40 billion barrels per year. Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil reservoir (260 Billion barrels) would be wiped out in a little over 6 years compared to the worldwide oil demand. We are racing madly toward the cliff at full speed.
Sixth, the Japanese people will have the best chance in the world to withstand the end of the oil age. They relentlessly pursue heavy investment in rail infrastructure for the present and future. They are working on trains that can exceed 400 miles per hour. That is a train that, if we had it in the US; would go from Oklahoma City to Los Angeles in a little over 3 HOURS.
Seventh, you say that walking is energy efficient. This may or may not be the case. However, for example, the BNSF has achieved an energy efficiency of 750 ton miles per gallon of fuel; and is working to increase this. To get an idea of what this means in a two ton car; you would have to get over 375 miles per gallon to equal the energy efficiency of a BNSF train.
GregT on Tue, 19th May 2015 9:56 am
James,
“Where will the trains be to take up the enormous demand for these travelers?”
Where do you think that these ‘travellers’ will get the funds from to travel, where do you believe that they would be travelling to, and what for?
“Electric power can also generated by solar, wind, hydroelectric, geothermal; and other sources of energy.”
Without coal, oil, and natural gas, if we expended a massive effort to build out alternate electric power generating infrastructure, we would be fortunate to replace a relatively small percentage of what we currently use to power society. Where do you believe that the excess would come from to power a nationwide transportation system?
I would argue that the biggest hurdle facing humankind in the coming decades will not be a transportation problem. It will be the failure of our basic needs being met. Food, water, shelter, and security.
Davy on Tue, 19th May 2015 11:21 am
Thanks Greg, you saved me a post. The BAUtopian spell is strong in Mr. James.
JuanP on Tue, 19th May 2015 12:17 pm
“But we still have a conventional network that not so many decades ago was the envy of the world, and we know exactly how to fix it.” I am a train fan, and have been all my life, but never heard of anyone envying the American train network in my whole life. JHK must be thinking of some “stories” his grandpa told him when he was a kid about the Wild West or some Western Hollywood movies he watched back then. I am not saying it never happened anywhere, but to the best of my knowledge that is one more American myth. The British and European railways have been the envy of the world since I have a memory, not the American ones.
Having said that, I will say that Uruguay’s rail network has also been brutally abused and neglected since before I was born and is in even worse shape than the USA’s.
In Uruguay we were very lucky to have the British Empire design, build, operate, and manage our rail network from the 1870s to the 1950s. The network was very small, like everything in my country, but during the first half of the 20th Century it was very efficient and functional, providing excellent passenger and cargo services for around 70 years. It was considered back then the best rail network in Latin America and one of the best in the world for its size.
Then, in the early 1950s, the private British rail service was nationalized in a deal that swapped the trains for part of the WWII debt the British owed Uruguay. THAT WAS A VERY BAD MISTAKE! Now half the network is out of service for cargo and we have only around 200 of the original 2,000 miles of passenger service left, around 10%. I consider the railways nationalization one of the worse mistakes made in Uruguay’s history.
Just to prove once more that Americans are not the only morons in the world, but rather the world is full of us. I suspect this happened in many other places, too.
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rail_transport_in_Uruguay
Davy on Tue, 19th May 2015 12:36 pm
Juan, our freight system is the envy of the world. Freight rail can be converted to passenger rail easy enough especially in a collpasing world. Very simple trains can be produced from salvage. Existing trains can be used as long as there is diesel. The U.S. Also has waterways the envy of the world. I agree we have a poor passenger network now but let’s face it we are a car culture.
JuanP on Tue, 19th May 2015 12:56 pm
Davy, I should have specified that I was referring to passenger service. Thanks for the correction!
Baptised on Tue, 19th May 2015 1:04 pm
I sorta see US transportation turning into an India scenario. The poor which will be the vast majority riding on top hanging off the sides and anywhere else they can cling to on junker trains.
Davy on Tue, 19th May 2015 1:29 pm
Baptized, I see that also. American freight trains with boxcars full of people like hobos. Actually box cars could be dressed up nice. Think of all the car interiors that could be stripped and used. Better yet, all the McMansions that will be vacant. Think of all that nice leather and expensive Arabian rugs. We could put several weber grills in one box car for the food car. We could put swimming pools on some flat cars for recreation. Of course one car will need the crows nest with the sharp shooter for security. The sky is the limit folks. Welcome to our brave new world.
GregT on Tue, 19th May 2015 1:33 pm
They’d need to cut portholes in the tanker cars, otherwise people would suffocate.
Davy on Tue, 19th May 2015 1:34 pm
Oh, one more thought, one box car could have the gentleman’s club with a bar, pole dancing, casino slot machines, and a poker table.
JuanP on Tue, 19th May 2015 2:21 pm
I do expect trains to be around for a long time, definitely longer than cars, planes, or buses. They could even burn wood like they did in the past. Railroad tracks can last a long time with little or no maintenance.
I have always imagined that at some point in time, after oil imports are no longer available to us, Uruguayans would try to get some sort of primitive train service in place, but now I think that it all depends on how fast and how hard we collapse. I am less optimistic on this today than I was in the past.
apneaman on Tue, 19th May 2015 7:32 pm
Alabama jail forced to release prisoners after it ran out of food
http://www.digitaljournal.com/news/crime/alabama-jail-forced-to-release-prisoners-after-it-ran-out-of-food/article/433527
Apneaman on Wed, 20th May 2015 12:46 am
Secrets, Politics and Torture | FRONTLINE documentary accuses CIA of providing false information and propaganda to the producers of “Zero Dark Thirty” (2015)
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/secrets-politics-and-torture/
Davy on Wed, 20th May 2015 6:52 am
The lies, lies, and more lies. I watched the frontline documentary. I watched their other documentary on the NSA. In both works they show direct and blatant lies from both President Bush and Obama. We know the intelligence folks are going to lie and deceive. We know the presidents will not tell us everything. Yet, folks these were impeachable lies IMHO. We are into a great liar’s poker game and we the sheeple public are being bluffed into all is well and above board.
DEFINITION of ‘Liar’s Poker’
A game often associated with Wall Street traders who use statistical reasoning and behavioral psychology tactics to gamble. Liar’s Poker is fairly similar to the card game “cheat.” Players hold random dollar bills with close attention to their own bill serial number. The objective of the game is to bluff the opponents into believing that your bid does not exceed the combined sum of all of the serial numbers.
Read more: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/liars-poker.asp#ixzz3ag7mcvI2