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Page added on July 2, 2018
Kunstler: A Turn for the Worse
The Democratic Party has steered itself into an exquisitely neurotic predicament at a peculiar moment of history. Senator Bernie Sanders set the tone for the shift to full-throated socialism, and the primary election win of 28-year-old Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in a New York congressional district seems to have ratified it. She promised voters free college tuition, single-payer health care, and free housing. Ah, to live in such a utopia!
One can actually understand why New Yorkers especially would fall for that agenda of promises. When I was a child there in the 1950s and 60s, New York was a mostly middle-class city. City College of New York, with a really distinguished faculty, was free. That’s right, stone free. Much of that middle-class was educated there, including most of my high school teachers. In the 1950s and 60s, it cost a few hundred dollars to have a baby in the hospital, and less than that to receive three stitches in the ER. Back then, New York real estate was mostly rental housing and not subject to the deformations of wandering global capital.
You can’t overstate how fortunate this country was after the Second World War. The mid-twentieth century was the apex of American industrial wealth. We produced real goods and lived in extraordinary comfort. Now, of course that has all turned around, the industry is mostly bygone, the magnificent energy supply is getting sketchy, and all that’s left is a false-front financialized economy based on swindling and accounting fraud. Medicine and health care have become unabashed rackets, and good luck finding a place to live for less than half of your monthly income.
Things have changed, as Bob Dylan once noted in song, and the times they are a ‘changing once again. This is probably the worst time in recent history to go full-bore socialist. Look, it’s as simple as this: the 20th century saw the greatest rise of global GDP ever. The prospect of that is what drove the various socialisms of the period — the belief that there would be evermore material wealth and that a lot of it had to be fairly redistributed to the workers who brought it into being. You can debate the finer socio-ethical points of that — and indeed that’s what much of politics consisted of throughout the industrialized world — but the stunning bonanza of wealth compelled it.
That is the world we are moving out of right now, despite the fantasies of Elon Musk and the many techno pied pipers like him. GDP growth has stalled, the implacable trend is toward contraction, and the wizards of financial hocus-pocus are running out of tricks for pretending that they create anything of value. In short: there’s no there there. All that’s left are IOUs for loans that will never be paid back — and that kind of loan (especially in the form of a bond) doesn’t have any value.
So, the Democratic Party has embarked on a crusade to redistribute the wealth of the nation at the exact moment when the “wealth” is turning out to be gone. Good luck with that.
A perhaps more high-toned and fine-tuned version of this program is the new scheme called “universal basic income” (UBI). A Silicon Valley zillionaire named Andrew Yang has launched a 2020 presidential bid based on this UBI. You can listen to his pitch in this excellent discussion with Sam Harris here. Yang is obviously sincere. He proposes to give every citizen around $1,000 a month whether they have a job or not. You can mount any number of arguments about how this might incentivize behavior for better or worse, but if something like that were ramped up, I assure you it could only be done with a debased currency on track toward oblivion. The wealth is no longer there and the representation of it in “money” will be obviously false.
Don’t get too worked-up, either, over the Big Story that robots will soon be doing all the jobs lately done by humans in America. That fantasy of the next economy is actually already dead-on-arrival due to the energy predicament that virtually no one in the public arena is paying any attention to. The century-long oil bonanza is winding down again. The oil companies know it. They’re not spending any money on exploration, meaning they won’t replace the energy we’re currently burning up with new supply. To make matters more interesting, the alt-energy industries will not survive the demise of oil. You have no idea how this dilemma will shove the life our nation into something like a new medieval age. And don’t be surprised if it comes complete with a new feudalism — which is just a way of describing a deeply local economy, if you can make one at all.
The Democratic Party’s return to socialist nostrums could not happen at a less propitious moment. It’s one thing to spend other people’s money during an age of steadily rising GDP, and another thing when GDP is collapsing. It might even prove to be a winning strategy in a few elections. But that depends on how delusional the voters remain.
119 Comments on "Kunstler: A Turn for the Worse"
Cloggie on Mon, 2nd Jul 2018 3:36 pm
This just in: Merkel and Seehofer reach agreement.
http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/horst-seehofer-und-angela-merkel-finden-kompromiss-im-unionsstreit-a-1216290.html
Seehofer claims he achieved all his aims, most importantly the ability to send asylum tourists away at the border under certain circumstances.
Plantagenet on Mon, 2nd Jul 2018 4:06 pm
It used to be the Ds wanted the US to be more like Europe. Now they want the US to be more like Venezuela. Cheers!
MASTERMIND on Mon, 2nd Jul 2018 4:13 pm
Plantagenet
What about Detroit, Greece and Puerto Rico? They are all bankrupted capitalist regions..
Cheers!
onlooker on Mon, 2nd Jul 2018 4:44 pm
The right wing cheerleaders of Capitalism themselves are admitting the US is bankrupt and Republicans are making it worse
http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/america-is-bankrupt-and-republicans-couldnt-care-less/
john kelley on Mon, 2nd Jul 2018 5:04 pm
Kunstler mentions “the energy predicament that virtually no one in the public arena is paying any attention to.” An exaggeration but not a huge one. Why do most people ignore this approaching calamity? We see an endless parade of Climate Change neurotics none of whom seem to be aware of the looming energy disaster.Why aren’t the Mayors,City Counsels, communities, preparing for this likely change of fortune? What do you guys think?
onlooker on Mon, 2nd Jul 2018 5:11 pm
Personally I think, John, the energy catastrophe is too close and with no acceptable solutions and thus politically untouchable . So, climate change mitigation efforts was a way to clandestinely take steps to cushion the blow
Roger on Mon, 2nd Jul 2018 5:15 pm
The Democrats aren’t fools…they’re also nurturing a fascist movement for when socialism fails.
Davy on Mon, 2nd Jul 2018 5:20 pm
The Democrats remind me of entropy (the degree of disorder or randomness in a system)
JuanP on Mon, 2nd Jul 2018 6:06 pm
John, The politicians that propose ideas that would work don’t get voted into office. People elect politicians that promise hope, growth, and abundance, not despair, contraction, and scarcity. We get what we wish for as a society.
Duncan Idaho on Mon, 2nd Jul 2018 6:31 pm
The Democratic Party’s return to socialist nostrums could not happen at a less propitious moment.
Sorry Jim, you got that backwards.
LetTheHumanSpecieDieGracefully on Mon, 2nd Jul 2018 6:32 pm
Some people ask in the comments above why are people not seeing the energy predicament that is coming soon.
Maybe the human race project (no matter who build: GOD or evolution) was not meant to last. Human avoiding reality might just be a fail safe mechanism that life use to dispose of specie(does not matter what specie : animal, vegetable or human) once their time is over.
I do also find strange that some many people can lie to them self so easily in order to avoid reality.
MASTERMIND on Mon, 2nd Jul 2018 6:38 pm
LetTheHumanSpecieDieGracefully
If you try to inform anyone of the energy cliff coming..They go into a sort of paralysis..I have learned that people in general can simply not handle it..Its to scary for them..
Makati1 on Mon, 2nd Jul 2018 6:51 pm
Most of the seven plus billion people inhabiting this planet have no idea what a “Seneca cliff” is, or even what “climate change” is. And their governments don’t want to tell them.
The price of oil is meaningless when they do not directly use the stuff. They probably notice the price of things they buy increasing, but do not understand why. Billions lack such education or understanding. Perhaps they are the lucky ones.
MASTERMIND on Mon, 2nd Jul 2018 6:55 pm
Davy
You remind me a stupid hick farmer..Who is scared of science papers about collapse..but spends all day spewing 10k letter word salad rants that nobody ever reads..
LMFAO
Makati1 on Mon, 2nd Jul 2018 6:59 pm
Let, “I do also find strange that some many people can lie to them self so easily in order to avoid reality.”
It’s called “denial”. It is the trademark of a coward or a lack of education. It is common in societies that have been feeding off of the work of others for too long (the West) and the pain of seeing that end is too much for them to face.
Americans are the perfect example, and it will be their end. They prefer war and plunder to try to extend their easy life, again at the expense of others. That is why it must be put down and soon.
Roger on Mon, 2nd Jul 2018 7:12 pm
“Maybe the human race project (no matter who build: GOD or evolution) was not meant to last. …
I do also find strange that some many people can lie to them self so easily in order to avoid reality.”
Well said. The human race has been lying to itself to deny (the true) God’s existence…pretty much always. If we accepted the truth, we’d grasp that life is eternal…the only variable is one’s ultimate destination.
Makati1 on Mon, 2nd Jul 2018 7:22 pm
Roger, you may try to preach here, but it will be a waste of your time. Religion is dying. The next few generations will see to that as one belief clashes with another and the deaths will be horrendous.
There is no “life after”, only nothing. Like a light bulb that burns out. Best to live this one life to the best of your ability and not waste the time or resources to pretend there is a god somewhere that can listen to 7+ billion thoughts and watch 7+ billion people 24/7/365.
Religion was invented by humans to control humans when there was little understood about life and our place in it. Religion is only for the weak who want something to blame their problems on or to pretend that there is some “help” available when they are in trouble.
I saw “religion” from the inside as I served 20 years, with five Mormon Bishops. I saw the lies, the pretending, the way religion works. Now I am an atheist. I am free to live my life the way I see fit. Not the way some priest thinks it should be lived. Nor do I have to support him with my hard earned money. I enjoy this one and only life to the fullest.
twocats on Mon, 2nd Jul 2018 7:29 pm
first – kunstler’s analysis here is very poor (which is typical). he recognized and identified the “long emergency” (published 2005!!) preempting a lot of the “you doomers said peak oil meant crash” bullshit that we’ve been living with for over 10 years!!!
second – the right is seizing upon cortes to try and drive a wedge through the democratic party.
third – the democratic machinery is scared shitless over first sanders and now cortes. their main goal as a ruling elite is to hold on to power, even if its only the minority power. in other words, they’d rather continue losing and being cheated by republicans than lose to those like cortes.
fourth – the republican party (nationalist party with a conservative fringe) is the most dangerous party in the history of all mankind and closely represents a fairly large chunk of their base (20 – 30% hardcore believers) and is such a monstrous thing that it should be destroyed as quick as possible.
fifth – the democratic party is a much more disjointed party – a coalition of a variety of beliefs – but the core of the party does NOT AT ALL closely align with the left wing of its base and the 10s or 100s of thousands that are even more left of that.
twocats on Mon, 2nd Jul 2018 7:33 pm
if it were up to a popular vote nationwide tomorrow – 80% of alexandria’s platform would probably be approved. and if the solution to pay for it was that the top 10% needed to be stripped of 90% of their assets and left with a simple retirement in exile – I’m positive that would get voted in as well.
MASTERMIND on Mon, 2nd Jul 2018 7:42 pm
Madkat
“In every country and in every age, the priest has been hostile to liberty. He is always in alliance with the despot, abetting his abuses in return for protection to his own.”
― Thomas Jefferson
MASTERMIND on Mon, 2nd Jul 2018 7:56 pm
EPA chief Scott Pruitt flees Washington eatery after woman cradling toddler confronts him, says he’s ‘harming’ children
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/ny-news-epa-pruitt-washington-baby-harming-20180702-story.html
twocats on Mon, 2nd Jul 2018 8:08 pm
good post MM – i’m glad people are doing stuff like this. trump has made a fortune and career off taking things that are run on norms and honor and completely disregarding them. the same goes for pruitt who has so many scandals they’d be too difficult to list and i actually can’t track them all. 1/100th of his ethical violations would have gotten him booted in any other administration. but the gloves are off on the right, been off, and they’ve got razors in the fists. the left is still debating civility.
MASTERMIND on Mon, 2nd Jul 2018 8:21 pm
Twocats
The right has lost their minds on this immigration issue..As the bible says ” A man reaps what he sows in life”..
Makati1 on Mon, 2nd Jul 2018 8:21 pm
MM, what does that quote have to do with anything here? I don’t see a connection to any comment.
GetAVasectomyAndLetTheHumanSpecieDie on Mon, 2nd Jul 2018 8:23 pm
Regarding Scott Pruitt. People want the old leadership out especially the corrupt people and the people that have been there to long without any new ideas other then the continuation of the status quo. I am expecting more of this no matter what is political opinion and party.
Chaos and violence method used by nature to bring changes forward. I am surprised it is coming from Maxime Watter. SHe look and behave like a total nut.
What is happening now has happen plenty of time in the past. Nothing to be surprized by.
Makati1 on Mon, 2nd Jul 2018 8:23 pm
“” A man reaps what he sows in life”..”
As can be said for countries also. The Us is going to reap a lit of pain for its past and present actions.
BTW: my previous comment was about the T.J. quote, not this one.
MASTERMIND on Mon, 2nd Jul 2018 8:24 pm
Madkat
You said you worked as a priest and witnessed all of the scams etc..
MASTERMIND on Mon, 2nd Jul 2018 8:25 pm
Madkat
You helped build this machine in the US longer than I have been alive…Enough with the grand standing..
Makati1 on Mon, 2nd Jul 2018 8:29 pm
twocats, I am laughing at your still sucking up the propaganda that there are TWO parties in the Us. there is only one. The oligarchs that run the country and play you and others against each other. They want a civil war so that they can finish the Great Leveling of America. Both “sides” are insane with hate generated by those same oligarchs. Fun to watch from here. lol
Makati1 on Mon, 2nd Jul 2018 8:31 pm
MM, but I can also tear it down now. I wasn’t aware of the plan because there was no internet to get outside info and views. You don’t have that problem. What are YOU doing to fix the problem? Oh that’s right a bullet…
Makati1 on Mon, 2nd Jul 2018 8:33 pm
MM: I am still a high priest in the Mormon church although I have been inactive for 18 years. So what? I was also an army officer, but that does not mean I still support the military. I do not.
deadly on Mon, 2nd Jul 2018 8:36 pm
How can fake green energy be advocated by environmentalists when the Queen of England enjoys thirty million dollars of income from wind farms? Shouldn’t that cause some cognitive dissonance? Everybody pays more in energy costs while the super rich become richer. How does that compute?
Why do fake greens advocate wind power when Warren Buffett, the premier capitalist on the entire planet, invests in wind farms? He does so because the money profited comes from the production tax credit.
Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway make millions while rate payer basic rate costs increase by some sixfold.
The American peon must pay more, Berkshire Hathaway investors, owners of shares, profit at the expense of ordinary garden variety American exceptionalist slobs.
It is so absurd it is preposterous.
And these fake greens buy into the renewable energy turdburger. Another shit sandwich for the average contemporary hapless sap who must always pay through the nose.
Warren Buffett is laughing all the way to the bank at the renewable energy clowns. What a joke, the financialized economy is bound to fail, it is doomed from the get go.
Time to start drinking nonstop, 24/7/365.
Beam me up.
Mother Nature should use a taser on humanity, bring it to its senses. Insanity rules, on the left and on the right.
Get a freaking life in this freaking world.
Good God Almighty
MASTERMIND on Mon, 2nd Jul 2018 8:42 pm
Madkat
You said it was great to watch the US collapse..See I told you this before you take pleasure in seeing others suffer..You are a sadistic and your words are wicked..I would rather take a bullet than turn the person you are..
onlooker on Mon, 2nd Jul 2018 8:56 pm
Mother Nature should use a taser on humanity, bring it to its senses. Insanity rules, on the left and on the right.—–
You said it but the truly insane and evil are those who sit on the highest perches by virtue of having the most money
MASTERMIND on Mon, 2nd Jul 2018 9:14 pm
Onlooker
When the rich can’t get more by producing real wealth they start to use their power to take from lower segments..
-Dennis Meadows
Roger on Mon, 2nd Jul 2018 9:29 pm
“There is no “life after”, only nothing. Like a light bulb that burns out. Best to live this one life to the best of your ability and not waste the time or resources to pretend there is a god somewhere that can listen to 7+ billion thoughts and watch 7+ billion people 24/7/365.”
You were deceived by the Mormon cult…get over it; enough whining. I don’t believe in atheists…God is evident in His creation. No other coherent explanation. Anyone desiring truth can read the gospel of John and recognize it.
MASTERMIND on Mon, 2nd Jul 2018 9:31 pm
US corruption meme
https://i.redd.it/apzvh2nq1m711.png
GregT on Mon, 2nd Jul 2018 9:33 pm
“You are a sadistic and your words are wicked..I would rather take a bullet than turn the person you are..”
Internet Trolls Are Narcissists, Psychopaths, and Sadists
Trolls will lie, exaggerate, and offend to get a response.
Makati1 on Mon, 2nd Jul 2018 9:34 pm
No, MM, I do not take pleasure in other’s suffering. I am only saying that the Us has to be put down to prevent more millions from suffering it’s depredation of the rest of the world. If I like d to watch people suffering, I could watch the Us destroy other countries as it has been doing for the lat 100+ years.
The Us is an ongoing murderer who needs to be stopped. That the serfs will suffer is because they will not rise up and stop the killing. Therefore, they too are guilty and will suffer the consequences.
The Us is committing suicide. I cannot change what is happening or what will happen. I can only watch it happen from safe shores.
MASTERMIND on Mon, 2nd Jul 2018 9:37 pm
Roger
Nothing was created..You choose that word on purpose..The universe evolved through cosmic evolution..And humans evolved through natural selection..
onlooker on Mon, 2nd Jul 2018 9:38 pm
Hey MM, it is already happening. What is bailing out those corrupt Banks with billions of taxpayer money. And 29 trillion missing from Pentagon http://www.investmentwatchblog.com/29-trillion-dollars-missing-from-pentagon-trump-calls-for-audit/
JuanP on Mon, 2nd Jul 2018 9:39 pm
It looks like the MM personality has mostly displaced the Davy one! The Delusional Exceptionalist’s psychiatric evolution is amazing to watch; the “Best Show on Earth”! And to think people pay for cable! LOL! What will happen in tomorrow’s chapter? Don’t miss it! Playing 24/7 because this motherfucker obviously has trouble sleeping and nothing better to do.
MASTERMIND on Mon, 2nd Jul 2018 9:40 pm
Madkat
You didn’t rise up and stop anything..You went to work for the military and helped build this monster into what it is today..You had no problem hailing the chief for more years than I have been alive..And then when shit gets out of control you get out of dodge and now shake your finger for the other side of the world…
onlooker on Mon, 2nd Jul 2018 9:42 pm
Unfortunately, Makati is right about the US.
MASTERMIND on Mon, 2nd Jul 2018 9:43 pm
Onlooker
I know..And here is better source to use for future reference..
MSU Scholars find $21 Trillion in Unauthorized Government Spending
https://msutoday.msu.edu/news/2017/msu-scholars-find-21-trillion-in-unauthorized-government-spending-defense-department-to-conduct/
MASTERMIND on Mon, 2nd Jul 2018 9:44 pm
Onlooker
The US government spends $20 billion annually just to provide air conditioning for military installations in Iraq and Afghanistan. In essence, what we’re doing is “we’re air conditioning the desert
https://www.npr.org/2011/06/25/137414737/among-the-costs-of-war-20b-in-air-conditioning
Makati1 on Mon, 2nd Jul 2018 9:46 pm
“…God is evident in His creation.”
Hahahahahahahahaha! Bullshit in huge piles!
You are so brainwashed by your parents and their region that you cannot see anything else. You profess to believe what you were born into, not reality.
Had you been born into a Muslim, Hindu, Buddhist, Jewish, Mormon, Protestant, Atheist, etc. family, that is what you were indoctrinated to believe.Just like being born an American, Chinese, Japanese, etc. Indoctrination from birth. Hard to overcome your brainwashing.
It takes real guts to change religions after your youth. I was a Protestant for 24 years before I changed to Mormon and that lasted another 30 years before I saw the light and moved on to reality. There is no god. No “life after.” they are dreams of the weak and uneducated.
Makati1 on Mon, 2nd Jul 2018 9:52 pm
Rodger, the “bible” was written long after those people were dead by second hand or third hand info. Written to substantiate the power that they professed to have with “god”. With all of our historic research and means, no one has ever proved that even Jesus existed. Your arguments are without any proof, just “faith”.
“Faith without doubt leads to moral arrogance, the eternal pratfall of the religiously convinced.” M-W
Makati1 on Mon, 2nd Jul 2018 9:55 pm
MM, in case you missed my previous post…
“Madkat You didn’t rise up and stop anything.”
My reply:
“MM, but I can also tear it down now. I wasn’t aware of the plan because there was no internet to get outside info and views. You don’t have that problem. What are YOU doing to fix the problem? Oh that’s right a bullet…”
Makati1 on Mon, 2nd Jul 2018 9:58 pm
Onlooker, I don’t like to be right about the Us but it is what it is. That most Americans don’t see, or refuse to see, the problem is the reason it has to fall the hard way. And soon, I hope.