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JPMorgan: We Believe The Dollar Could Lose Its Status As World’s Reserve Currency
Almost eight year ago, we first presented a chart first created by JPMorgan’s Michael Cembalest, which showed very simply and vividly that reserve currencies don’t last forever, and that in the not too distant future, the US Dollar would also lose its status as the world’s most important currency, since it is never different this time.
As Cembalest put it back in January 2012, “I am reminded of the following remark from late MIT economist Rudiger Dornbusch: ‘Crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.'”
Perhaps it is not a coincidence then that in light of the growing number of mentions of MMT and various other terminal, destructive monetary policies that have been proposed to kick on the current financial system the can just a little bit longer, that the topic of longevity of reserve currency status is once again becoming all the rage, and none other than JPMorgan’s Private Bank ask in this month’s investment strategy note whether “the dollar’s “exorbitant privilege” is coming to an end?”
So why is JPM, after first creating the iconic chart above which has since spread virally across all financial corners of the internet, not only worried that the dollar’s reserve status may be coming to an end, but in fact goes so far as to state that “we believe the dollar could lose its status as the world’s dominant currency (which could see it depreciate over the medium term) due to structural reasons as well as cyclical impediments.”
Read on to learn why even the largest US bank has started to lose faith in the world’s most powerful currency.
Is the dollar’s “exorbitant privilege” coming to an end?
In Brief
The U.S. dollar (USD) has been the world’s dominant reserve currency for almost a century. As such, many investors today, even outside the United States, have built and become comfortable with sizable USD overweights in their portfolios. However, we believe the dollar could lose its status as the world’s dominant currency (which could see it depreciate over the medium term) due to structural reasons as well as cyclical impediments.
As such, diversifying dollar exposure by placing a higher weighting on other currencies in developed markets and in Asia, as well as precious metals makes sense today. This diversification can be achieved with a strategy that maintains the underlying assets in an investment portfolio, but changes the mix of currencies within that portfolio. This is a completely bespoke approach that can be customized to meet the unique needs of individual clients.
The rise of the U.S. dollar
It is commonly perceived that the U.S. dollar overtook the Great British Pound (GBP) as the world’s international reserve currency with the signing of the Bretton Woods Agreements after World War II. The reality is that sterling’s value was eroded for many decades prior to Bretton Woods. The dollar’s rise to international prominence was fueled by the establishment of the Federal Reserve System a little over a century ago and U.S. economic emergence after World War I. The Federal Reserve System aided in the establishment of more mature capital markets and a nationally coordinated monetary policy, two important pillars of reserve-currency countries. Being the world’s unit of account has given the United States what former French Finance Minister Valery d’Estaing called an “exorbitant privilege” by being able to purchase imports and issue debt in its own currency and run persistent deficits seemingly without consequence.
The shifting center
There is nothing to suggest that the dollar dominance should remain in perpetuity. In fact, the dominant international currency has changed many times throughout history going back thousands of years as the world’s economic center has shifted.
After the end of World War II, the U.S. accounted for biggest share of world GDP at more than 25%. This number is brought to more than 40% when we include Western European powers. Since then, the main driver of economic growth has shifted eastwards towards Asia at the expense of the U.S. and the West. China is at the epicenter of this recent economic shift driven by the country’s strong growth and commitment to domestic reforms. Over the last 70 years, China has quadrupled its share of global GDP to around 20%—roughly the same share as the U.S.—and this share is expected to continue to grow in the years ahead. China is no longer just a manufacturer of low cost goods as a growing share of corporate earnings is coming from “high value add” sectors like technology.
China regaining its status as a global superpower
Earnings in China are becoming more balanced
In addition to China, the economies of Southeast Asia, including India, have strong secular tailwinds driven by younger demographics and proliferating technological know-how. Specifically, the Asian economic zone—from the Arabian Peninsula and Turkey in the West to Japan and New Zealand in the East and from Russia in the North and Australia in the South—now represents 50% of global GDP and two-thirds of global economic growth. Of the estimated $30 trillion in middle-class consumption growth between 2015 and 2030, only $1 trillion is expected to come from today’s Western economies. As this region grows, the share of non-USD transactions will inevitably increase which will likely erode the dollar’s “reserveness”, even if the dollar isn’t replaced as the dominant international currency.
In other words, in the coming decades we think the world economy will transition from U.S. and USD dominance toward a system where Asia wields greater power. In currency space, this means the USD will likely lose value compared to a basket of other currencies, including precious commodities like gold.
Dollar’s declining role already under way?
Recent data on currency reserve holdings among global central banks suggests this shift may already be under way. As a share of overall central bank reserves, the USD’s role has been declining ever since the Great Recession (see chart). The most recent central bank reserve flow data also suggests that for the first time since the euro’s introduction in 1999, central banks simultaneously sold dollars and bought euros.
Central banks across the globe are also adding to gold reserves at their strongest pace on record. 2018 saw the strongest demand for gold from central banks since 1971 and a rolling four-quarter sum of gold purchases is the strongest on record. To us, this makes sense: gold is a stable source of value with thousands of years of trust among humans supporting it.
USD share of central bank reserves, %
The current U.S. administration has called into question agreements with nearly all of its largest partners—tariffs on China, Mexico and the European Union, renegotiating NAFTA, as well as abandoning the Trans Pacific Partnership. A more adversarial U.S. administration could also encourage countries to reduce their reliance on USD in trade. Currently 85% of all currency transactions involve the USD despite the U.S. accounting for only roughly 25% of global GDP.
Countries around the world are already developing payment mechanisms that would avoid using the dollar. These systems are small and still developing but this is likely to be a structural story that will extend beyond one particular administration. In a recent speech on the international role of the euro, Bank for International Settlements Chief Economist Claudio Borio brought up the benefits of pricing oil in the euro saying, “Trading and settling oil in the euro would move payments from dollars to euros and thereby shift ultimate settlement to the euro’s TARGET2 system. This could limit the reach of U.S. foreign policy insofar as it leverages dollar payments.” The European Central Bank also alluded to this theme in a recent report saying that “growing concerns about the impact of international trade tensions and challenges to multilateralism, including the imposition of unilateral sanctions seem to have lent support to the euro’s global standing.”
We believe we are at an important juncture. On a real basis, the dollar stands currently more than 10% above its long-term average and on a nominal basis has actually been trending lower for 50 years (see chart below).
Given the persistent—and rising—deficits in the United States (in both fiscal and trade), we believe the U.S. dollar could become vulnerable to a loss of value relative to a more diversified basket of currencies, including gold. As we scan client portfolios, we see that many of them have far more U.S. dollar exposure than we feel is prudent. At this stage of the economic cycle, we believe this exposure should be more diversified. In many cases, our recommendation would likely be to place a higher weighting on other G10 currencies, currencies in Asia and gold (see chart).
FX exposure
330 Comments on "JPMorgan: We Believe The Dollar Could Lose Its Status As World’s Reserve Currency"
I AM THE MOB on Thu, 25th Jul 2019 10:22 am
Clogg talking with a colleague? HAHA! Clogg you no life and no job..You aren’t fooling anyone..
Why don’t you upload a pay stub and black out your name to prove it..
Ill be waiting, along with historians you refuse prove yourself with..
lol
Cloggie on Thu, 25th Jul 2019 12:05 pm
“Ill be waiting”
…and waiting and waiting…
Dredd on Thu, 25th Jul 2019 12:21 pm
“We Believe The Dollar Could Lose Its Status As World’s Reserve Currency”
Who knew (Economic War Of The Pacific – 6)?
Davy on Thu, 25th Jul 2019 12:31 pm
“Ill be waiting” …and waiting and waiting…”
Looks like the Euro will be in first place in the race to the bottom
I AM THE MOB on Thu, 25th Jul 2019 2:47 pm
Trump’s Budget Deal Shows Deficits Don’t Matter Anymore
https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/trumps-budget-deal-shows-deficits-dont-matter-anymore-51563960602
Its nice having the worlds reserve currency..Wish we could say the same for China and Europe..
Enjoy bankruptcy..
I AM THE MOB on Thu, 25th Jul 2019 3:56 pm
Clogg
Your problem is you try to hard..You try to hard to brainwash others into your religion (Nazism)..You try to hard to push your renewable fantasies (using industry propaganda)..You try to hard to push your political ideology (nonstop tabloid news from far right daily mail)..You try to hard to push your future vision (generic meaningless maps)..And you do this with a censored blog..
I AM THE MOB on Thu, 25th Jul 2019 3:58 pm
Airbus A350 software bug forces airlines to turn planes off and on every 149 hours
https://www.theregister.co.uk/2019/07/25/a350_power_cycle_software_bug_149_hours/
Behold European white trash engineering! And this is even after over 21 billion in illegal subsidies they were given..Oh the irony..
I AM THE MOB on Thu, 25th Jul 2019 4:38 pm
FBI Chief Says China’s Trying to `Steal Their Way’ to Dominance
https://news.yahoo.com/fbi-chief-says-chinas-trying-091836829.html
Theedrich on Fri, 26th Jul 2019 2:15 am
The Democrats aim to destroy us thru dysgenics. They know quite well that the sludge they are importing through the southern border and in many other ways includes vast numbers of narcotraffickers, child sex slavemasters, human and biological parasites of every description, and that the nation lacks the capacity to absorb, much less to control them all. The Bolsheviks’ magic key is the word “racist,” which is thrown against every White imaginable. (Coloreds are deemed to be sainted victims who cannot possibly be racist.)
Meanwhile the diminshing White majority is intimidated into lamb-like silence by the Yid media and internet monopolies (Gooogle, Fbook, etc.). The “six-million” tale and the nostalgic bathos about Yankee “heroes” who vanquished “evil” by murdering their blood brethren in WW II saturates the limited brains of the hypnotized TV viewers; at the same time, groupthink paralyzes the useful idiots of academe.
So the cannabis-stoned majority slurps up the materialistic nihilism dished out by the diseased elites, and plods on to its genosuicide. The U.S. Congress cannot keep itself from perpetually raising the national debt by $trillions per year. And such illustrious leaders as Representative Elijah Cummings, whose wife is profiting illegally from pay-to-play bribes to her “charity,” are currently issuing subpoenas against members of the Trump family in order to show their concern for purity in politics.
In sum, the United States is rotting in its core. Despite its braggadocio, it will never visit the moon again, in part because all of the required electronics and machinery is now made in China. In addition, much of the critical computer circuitry used in the F-35 fighter, America’s most advanced military plane, is made only in China. It is simply too complex and costly to be produced in the U.S. Plus, the hullabaloo over Huawei as maker of 5-G computer networks and systems is vain, since the U.S. is incapable of producing 5-G systems of competitive power at affordable prices on its own.
So the dollar as reserve currency will soon follow the decline in general cultural and economic dominance now taking place in fentanyl-loving Yankeeland. Survival would be just too hard.
Cloggie on Fri, 26th Jul 2019 2:41 am
“Behold European white trash engineering!”
There is no such thing as a non-white engineered plane, you stupid kike. The trouble with Boeing began when they outsourced writing system software to India to “save money”.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-28/boeing-s-737-max-software-outsourced-to-9-an-hour-engineers
Btw do you have a serious link reporting about it and more important: can you give an example of a A350 that crashed? I regularly need to reboot my Windows system, so what?
But who cares? Flying will have to be curtailed anyway or face a planet “well done”. It is a good thing they are crashing out of the sky. Planes bring way too many people way too far from their beds.
Planes and cars are a curse.
Cloggie on Fri, 26th Jul 2019 3:09 am
“FBI Chief Says China’s Trying to `Steal Their Way’ to Dominance”
Before that the Chinese got thrown entire industries in their lap by insane stupid (((globalists))), who thought that China could be controlled in the NWO. Now the same globalists have to admit they armed their future opponent.
https://documents1940.wordpress.com/2019/01/07/the-good-news-zog-is-dying/
The Anglos don’t need to be taken serious anymore. Hopelessly overstretched and innerly divided to the core, destroyed by mass-immigration. The real enormous danger is China.
We Euro’s (“whites”) world-wide need to get our act together and first anticipate armageddon in the US, initiated for instance by a major clash over Taiwan:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-taiwan-usa/china-warns-of-war-in-case-of-move-toward-taiwan-independence-idUSKCN1UJ07O
It is only a matter of time before China will issue an ultimatum vs the Anglos and their navy anachronisms. The Gulf is another potential flashpoint.
We need the upcoming Euro-army first and foremost to intervene in the upcoming CW2 and help creating a rightwing white “cowboy republic” of ca 120 million, probably coinciding with the Missisippi basin and solve the white race’s ZOG-problem once and for all.
After that we can topple the globalists in England (bye-bye BoJo and Fromage and bring BNP kinda guys to power) and encourage them to administer Canada and the Boston area and set up a Norway-style economic relation with Europe. The EU and Russia will merge in a confederation, advocated by Putin.
That’s the most desirable scenario and not totally unrealistic. “Eurosphere” would more than suffice to balance China and could begin to colonize space, 500 years after Europeans began to discover, explore and colonize the planet and got it out of the stone age.
Like Britain and France did more than 100 years ago, likewise Eurosphere and Sinosphere need to divide Africa and go in again, not to take over governments but to offer “sponsorship” in return for raw materials. Main African selling point: operating low-tech endless solar arrays for hydrogen production, financed by Eurasia, for Eurasian markets.
Antius on Fri, 26th Jul 2019 3:35 am
Maybe the future of air travel will look more like this.
https://tinyurl.com/yym2py7v
and this…
https://tinyurl.com/y2lbkjd3
With modern materials, airships would have much less dead weight than the prototypes of the 1930s and would be stronger and safer. Given that they use hydrogen as a lifting gas, liquid hydrogen would be a practicable fuel for them. The development of gas turbines (not available in the 1930s) also provides a more practical engine for burning hydrogen as fuel. Any boiloff from liquid hydrogen tanks can be either cycled through the engines or can be used to refill the lifting gas cells.
Airships travelling at perhaps 100-150km/h could transport people up to 2000-3000km without the need for sleeping accommodation. For longer journeys, airships would be less practical, because accommodation and consumables would begin eating into payload weight margins. A flight from London to New York (5500km) would take about 2 days and perhaps 1.5 days in the opposite direction. Airships would suffer greater delays due to weather, as top speed is reduced when the wind is against them. None the less, this is something that could be made to work for flights between European countries and within North America.
Antius on Fri, 26th Jul 2019 5:34 am
Regarding plans that Cloggie alluded to; the construction of solar power plants in Africa for power transmission to Europe. The past decade has seen two important technological developments that dramatically improve the potential for affordable long distance power transmission with minimal transmission losses.
1. The development of high temperature superconductors with critical temperature above the boiling point of nitrogen, based upon relatively common materials (specifically FeSe). This is important because it allows fabrication of superconductors at relatively low cost and allows them to be cooled by liquid air or liquid nitrogen. Liquid air is a soft cryogen and easy to produce using a refrigeration plant powered by solar energy, even in the middle of nowhere.
2. The development of relatively affordable silica aerogel insulation. This demonstrates an exceptionally low thermal conductivity even at cryogenic temperatures. Exactly what is needed to insulate superconducting power cables that need to be kept at -180 centigrade.
A superconducting power cable would allow transmission over thousands of km with close to zero losses. Due to the still high cost of aerogel and the energy cost of cooling the superconductor; it is only an affordable solution is you are looking to transmit 10s or even 100s of GW of electric power, which presumably we would be.
If North Africa could be pacified, then I would suggest building GW scale solar power plants close to the equator, Southern Mauritania say, as this would imply very limited seasonal changes in power output. The superconducting cable would straddle the coast and would ideally cross the Mediterranean at its narrowest point – Gibraltar. Subsea ice forming around the cable on the sea bed would add to insulation.
The cable could be configured to deliver power both as DC electric and through liquid nitrogen, which could be stored underground and used to generate power during night time as part of a thermal energy storage scheme. Presumably, we could then run the superconducting cable through central Spain, over the Pyrenees and through France and Germany. Essentially, it would function as a trunk cable for Europe and could interface directly with more conventional non-superconducting DC transmission lines to deliver power throughout Europe. A transcontinental superconducting trunk cable would make a transition to non-fossil energy much easier, as it allows integration of electricity sources across huge geographic distances and negates the need for long duration electricity storage, which may never be affordable. Ultimately, it would be practicable for a train system in France to draw its power from a wind farm in Mongolia, or a Russian nuclear reactor in the middle of Siberia.
Antius on Fri, 26th Jul 2019 5:54 am
One obvious downside of a 100GW superconducting cable is that it represents a huge concentration of energy. If the cable is severed or suddenly loses cooling at any particular location, then it would release 100GJ/s as heat at that point. That’s the equivalent of about 25 tonnes of TNT. There are small nuclear weapons in that yield range.
Suffice to say, it would not be wise to run such a cable through any heavily populated areas. And it would need to be buried deep enough to ensure that any damage (accidental or otherwise) is avoided.
Davy on Fri, 26th Jul 2019 5:57 am
You forgot the part about cost
Davy on Fri, 26th Jul 2019 6:05 am
“Germany’s solar power capacity approaching 52 GW support cap, industry warns”
https://tinyurl.com/y32ho7qa clean energy wire
“Germany’s solar power capacity is set to exceed the official cap for guaranteed remuneration of 52 gigawatts (GW) in a few months’ time, the head of solar industry association BSW Solar, told news agency dpa in an article carried by Handelsblatt Online. As of late 2018, Germany had 45.9 GW of solar capacity, with another 4 GW expected this year. Under Germany’s 2012 Renewable Energy Act, caps have been set on the volume of renewable power eligible for the support payments made through the renewables surcharge, which customers pay with their power bill. Germany is among the world’s top solar power producing countries. In June, solar became the country’s biggest source of power, covering 19 percent of demand.”
Davy on Fri, 26th Jul 2019 6:11 am
“Climate is warming faster than it has in the last 2,000 years”
https://tinyurl.com/y57ofu62 usa today
“A new study says that the warming we’ve seen in the past 100 years is unprecedented when compared to the past 2,000 years. A new study says that the warming we’ve seen in the past 100 years is unprecedented when compared to the past 2,000 years. (Photo: Getty Images) “Climate epochs of the past 2,000 years, which have been popularized with names such as the ‘Little Ice Age’ and the ‘Medieval Warm Period,’ were only regional or continental-scale phenomena. These cold and warm decades can be explained by natural climate variability. “But it’s only been since humans starting burning fossil fuels that the entire Earth has warmed together.”
“the familiar maxim that the climate is always changing is certainly true. But even when we push our perspective back to the earliest days of the Roman Empire, we cannot discern any event that is remotely equivalent … to the warming over the past few decades. Today’s climate stands apart in its torrid global synchrony.””
Davy on Fri, 26th Jul 2019 6:25 am
Green New Deal IV – Any Other Paths?
https://tinyurl.com/y285m23f lifeitself
“All right, here are more facts: since 2004, the annual increases of total electricity consumption in the world have outpaced all electricity production by all PV arrays in the world, see Figure 1. And the 2.7 TW of electricity in 2018 was only 16% of total primary energy demand in the world. If you read Part III of this post, you’ll understand that even in Sector 1 of the global economy (electricity generation) solar PV electricity has not kept pace with the incremental demand for electricity. As bad as this finding is, it merely illustrates the fact that without stringent population control in the poor countries and massive depowering of the rich countries there will be no comprehensive Green New Deal or Energiewende.”
“There is no other quick way of limiting GHG emissions from electricity generation, unless the rich countries insist on the immediate and deep, really deep, power cuts that would spell the end of the current global economy”
“in fact we need several times more solar electricity during the day to run all the background processes of generation of hydrogen or other energy carriers to power the rest of the economy during the night and provide heat for other industrial processes. If hydrogen generated by the solar electrolysis of water were to leave the closed loop of generation/burning, the need for photovoltaic power would increase again, not to mention a steady waste stream of salts from the electrolyzed water, one way or another…1 MWp solar PV plant delivers to the consumers only 22% of its electricity production as usable hydrogen. I hope that you understand just how arduous and inefficient a large scale replacement of fossil fuels with hydrogen would be.”
Davy on Fri, 26th Jul 2019 6:53 am
“Decoupling is Dead! Long Live Degrowth!”
https://tinyurl.com/y38chm7k resilience
“Seven reason why decoupling won’t happen Rising energy expenditures. When extracting a resource, cheaper options are generally used first, the extraction of remaining stocks then becoming a more resource- and energy-intensive process resulting in a rising total environmental degradation per unit of resource extracted…Rebound effects. Efficiency improvements are often partly or totally compensated by a reallocation of saved resources and money to either more of the same…Problem shifting. Technological solutions to one environmental problem can create new ones and/or exacerbate others…The underestimated impact of services. The service economy can only exist on top of the material economy, not instead of it. Services have a significant footprint that often adds to, rather than substitute, that of goods…Limited potential of recycling. Recycling rates are currently low and only slowly increasing, and recycling processes generally still require a significant amount of energy and virgin raw materials. Most importantly, recycling is strictly limited in its ability to provide resources for an expanding material economy…Insufficient and inappropriate technological change. Technological progress is not targeting the factors of production that matter for ecological sustainability and not leading to the type of innovations that reduce environmental pressures; it is not disruptive enough as it fails to displace other undesirable technologies; and it is not in itself fast enough to enable a sufficient decoupling…Cost shifting. What has been observed and termed as decoupling in some local cases was generally only apparent decoupling resulting mostly from an externalisation of environmental impact from high-consumption to low-consumption countries enabled by international trade.”
Davy on Fri, 26th Jul 2019 7:00 am
Oops, sorry for all the off topic copy and paste spam again everyone. I’m trying REAL Hard to ignore the REAL Topic of the articul.
Davy on Fri, 26th Jul 2019 7:06 am
“I Love Spam Madly, Deeply, Unironically”
https://tinyurl.com/y5lxedqa lenny
I am skilled at classical French cooking. I have a Higher Certificate from the Wine and Spirits Education Trust. I also, however, love Spam. (In case you were wondering, Spam pairs well with Gewürztraminer.) I kept kosher for a few years (long story). When I broke away from the dietary laws — because I was quitting smoking and could not maintain so many forms of self-abnegation at once — the food item I cheated with was Spam. It symbolizes both the part of me that is Korean and the part of me that is American — two identities that are difficult to unite. More important, I associate Spam with relaxation, being present, and not worrying about what you can’t control. Why? Because Spam evokes beaches, pineapples, funny tropical shirts: i.e., Hawaii. It’s the one place in the world where I can be un-stressed-out, and it happens to be the only U.S. state that loves Spam as much as I do. Mainland Americans have given me no end of grief for this. First rule of Spam Club: You never talk about Spam Club. Otherwise, you risk social death. Case in point: When I was at university, my friend Mike told me that his freshman-year roommate threw out Mike’s Spam and gave him $5 to cover the cost. But Mike and I both had a really good excuse for this embarrassing proclivity: We’re of Korean extraction, and Korea is the world’s largest consumer of Spam outside the United States. How did Korea become hooked on the laughingstock of all supermarket products? The meat that was so ridiculous that Monty Python created not only a sketch around it but an entire Broadway musical?
***A bit of history: Spam has been manufactured by the Austin, Minnesota-based Hormel Foods Corporation since 1937. It became widespread in Korea during and after the Korean War (1950 to 1953), when the U.S. government shipped loads of Spam to Korea, at a time when fresh meat was hard to come by. Korea was by no means the only beneficiary of this largesse; during and after WWII, the U.K. also turned to Spam to supplement monthly meat rations. In fact, articles on Spam’s role in wartime Britain bear titles such as “Spam: Did It Save the Nation?” (Here are some nostalgic British WWII-era Spam recipes.) Unlike the U.K., however, where they poke fun at Spam, Korean Spam consumption was unironic. While modern-day Brits no longer regularly eat Spam, it has remained part of the diet in Korea. In September 2017, Korean sales of Spam reached 1 billion tins. And Spam’s Korean co-distributor, Cheil Jedang, announced in January that its top-selling New Year gift box was Spam. In my day, the tins were usually packed in velvet-lined boxes and wrapped in white satin ribbon. Spam is an important part of Korean home cooking. It’s the sine qua non ingredient of kimchi jjigae (stewed kimchi) and budae jjigae — literally “army stew.” My mother, a biochemist with a particular fear of foodborne illnesses, was virulently anti-pork, making it sound like a veritable menagerie of revolting organisms — trichinosis, tapeworm, hepatitis, all reproducing at exponential rates. Yet we always had Spam in our pantry. Apparently Koreans are now accepting their love of the lowbrow: David Chang, the Michelin-starred Korean-American chef, is extolling Spam. Spam’s enduring popularity in Korea surprises me, because I had assumed Koreans were now prosperous enough to abandon any food item that you need a key to open. This is a common phenomenon, though — hardship habits die hard. Some Germans raised on the substitute coffee product “Ersatzkaffee” — either during the Second World War or subsequently in the former GDR — occasionally used the bad stuff over real coffee much longer than was necessary. Wartime food is a symbol of survival.
JuanP identity fraud on Fri, 26th Jul 2019 7:11 am
Davy on Fri, 26th Jul 2019 7:00 am
Oops, sorry for all the off topic copy and paste spam again everyone.”
JuanP identity fraud on Fri, 26th Jul 2019 7:12 am
Davy on Fri, 26th Jul 2019 7:06 am “I Love Spam Madly, Deeply, Unironically””
More Davy Sock Puppetry on Fri, 26th Jul 2019 7:14 am
JuanP identity fraud on Fri, 26th Jul 2019 7:11 am
More Davy Sock Puppetry on Fri, 26th Jul 2019 7:15 am
JuanP identity fraud on Fri, 26th Jul 2019 7:12 am
Davy on Fri, 26th Jul 2019 7:23 am
If J.P. Morgan is right we’re about to become a 3rd world country like Zimbabwe, only worse.
That’s why I’m building a retreat for all the others from St. Louis.
Davy on Fri, 26th Jul 2019 7:39 am
I like to think of the retreat as a monestary. It has a more zen-like spiritualist sound to it.
Hello on Fri, 26th Jul 2019 7:48 am
>>>> could then run the superconducting cable through central Spain, over the Pyrenees and through France and Germany.
Practically an invitation for disaster. A super sensitive piece of infrastructure for the all important electricity spanning over 1000s of km through 3rd world.
The future is local. Energy is produced locally, and it’s consumed locally. You consume what you produce, when you produce. Power outage (or controlled brown/black outs) becomes a normal. Only highly sensitive industrial processes that absolutely positively need to be online all the time will have guaranteed power delivery or their own backup installations.
JuanP identity fraud on Fri, 26th Jul 2019 8:33 am
Davy on Fri, 26th Jul 2019 7:23 am If J.P. Morgan is right we’re about to become a 3rd world country like Zimbabwe, only worse.”
Davy on Fri, 26th Jul 2019 7:39 am I like to think of the retreat as a monestary. It has a more zen-like spiritualist sound to it.”
Antius on Fri, 26th Jul 2019 8:46 am
Hydrogen has pros and cons as an energy storage medium. Many cons stem from the fact that the green tech lobby seem determined to bend it to applications for which it is unsuitable, like powering cars as a means of preserving the present addiction to mass motoring, or storing terawatt hours of grid electricity.
Some cons: It has poor efficiency as a storage medium for electricity across the production, storage and generation cycle – 25%. You can boost efficiency by using better equipment – high temperature electrolysis, solid oxide fuel cells, etc. But you also push up capital cost. It is also a difficult material to deal with at pressure, as it soaks into and leaks through most metals. Dealing with cryogenic hydrogen is very expensive as austenitic stainless steels must be used to avoid brittle failure and measures must be taken to prevent air from liquefying on contact with lines and containment vessels. It is also quite energy intensive and difficult to produce as a liquid fuel, as its boiling point is only 20K above absolute zero. This is why the most recent class of rocket engines produced by SpaceX run on liquid methane, even though liquid hydrogen has about double the mass energy density. Even for an application as mass-sensitive as a rocket vehicle, liquid hydrogen still doesn’t make economic sense. So don’t expect to see it used as a bulk transport fuel.
Pros: I suspect the economics of hydrogen as an energy storage system may look better when things are simplified rather than complicated with more technology and we work around its limitations. If hydrogen storage can be integrated into applications where its waste heat is efficiently used, then its whole cycle efficiency suddenly looks much better, especially if electricity would otherwise have been needed to generate the heat needed for that process. Imagine a hydrogen energy storage system integrated into an industrial scale food manufacturer, where lots of heat in the range of 100-200 Centigrade is needed for cooking. Electrolysis cells and fuel cells can easily be configured to produce waste heat in this range. If electrical efficiency of storage is only 25%, it might not matter so much if the waste heat is put to good use and the electricity is sold as a bonus. Static hydrogen energy storage could fit into any process that needs a large and constant supply of heat at temperatures above 100C, for which heat pumps would not be practicable.
Another factor that would make hydrogen storage more cost effective is storing it at ambient pressure. Whilst hydrogen has low density at ambient pressure (0.08kg per m3) that still translates into an energy density of 11.9MJ (3.3kWh) per cubic metre (higher heating value). If it can be stored in a flexible polymer sack at ambient pressure, then it could be stored very cheaply. At zero differential pressure, leakage would be slow even if the gas bag is thin. If used as a power source for buses or lifting gas for airships, it can also be stored at close to ambient pressure. A bus needs a minimum motive power of about 1kWh per km. If hydrogen can be burned in an engine at 30% efficiency, then a 30 cubic metre ambient pressure hydrogen tank mounted on the roof, would give the bus a range of just under 30km. Most bus routes are substantially less than this, so the bus can simply refill its tanks at the end of each route. It should also be possible to capture the waste heat produced by the engine over 30km and recycle it as hot water into a district heating system. This would only add a few hundred kg weight to the bus.
Antius on Fri, 26th Jul 2019 9:02 am
“Practically an invitation for disaster. A super sensitive piece of infrastructure for the all important electricity spanning over 1000s of km through 3rd world.
The future is local. Energy is produced locally, and it’s consumed locally. You consume what you produce, when you produce. Power outage (or controlled brown/black outs) becomes a normal. Only highly sensitive industrial processes that absolutely positively need to be online all the time will have guaranteed power delivery or their own backup installations.”
I am inclined to agree, given how difficult it would be to engineer this safely.
But keep in mind that the economic costs of an unreliable electricity supply are not trivial. And there are limited options for storing electrical energy that are affordable if stretched beyond the needs of short term grid balancing over a period of hours.
If Europe is determined to pursue an energy system that phases out fossil fuels and isn’t based upon nuclear energy; then it faces some very difficult choices when it comes to providing energy that is sufficiently reliable and sufficiently affordable. When your energy sources are inherently intermittent, it is difficult to satisfy both requirements simultaneously.
I AM THE MOB on Fri, 26th Jul 2019 9:26 am
With Trump and Boris now leading the US and UK..The mask if officially off for white people..They are dumber than dirt..That is why they have to use junk science like IQ..All that measures is how good of a sheep you are..That is why Asians score so high..
HAHAHAH
Hello on Fri, 26th Jul 2019 9:31 am
>>>> sufficiently reliable and sufficiently affordable.
That’s the beauty of free market economy. It determines what is “sufficient” automatically.
The idea that you can get any amount of electricity anytime and anywhere won’t be entertainable anymore.
And it’s not needed either. With very little inconvenience you can alter your daily live to match availability.
Antius on Fri, 26th Jul 2019 9:31 am
“With Trump and Boris now leading the US and UK..The mask if officially off for white people..They are dumber than dirt..That is why they have to use junk science like IQ..All that measures is how good of a sheep you are..That is why Asians score so high..”
Well we can’t all be blessed like you, can we Mastermind? 🙂
Another Davy Sock Puppet on Fri, 26th Jul 2019 10:20 am
JuanP identity fraud on Fri, 26th Jul 2019 8:33 am
more juanpee insanity on Fri, 26th Jul 2019 10:27 am
“Another Davy Sock Puppet on Fri, 26th Jul 2019 10:20 am JuanP identity fraud on Fri, 26th Jul 2019 8:33 am”
More Davy Sock Puppetry on Fri, 26th Jul 2019 10:31 am
more juanpee insanity on Fri, 26th Jul 2019 10:27 am
Antius on Fri, 26th Jul 2019 11:06 am
Davy get a life. You take this board far too seriously if you have to worry about who might be imitating you. No one here has even met anyone else that posts. We are all just anonymous names. And no one here wants to read ‘more juanpee insanity on Fri, 26th Jul 2019 10:27 am’
What on Earth does that add to the topic?
Davy on Fri, 26th Jul 2019 11:39 am
Antius, I could give a shit about your discomfort. I enjoy and respect some of your comments that are technical. Your economic and social comments less so. JuanPee is attempting to censor me and I am showing resistance. You would think with all the whining you do about such things you would support me. Instead you support and enable an insane person who has dumped mindless cyber bullying attacks on me now for over a year. You tell me to get a life yet you cry about the poor white man like a pussy. I tell you to grow some fucking balls and be a man so we are even. This is an unmoderated site. If the noise pollution is too much for you move on. It would not take much to stop juanpee’s disruptive efforts. A minimum of a password but the site owners don’t care. Talk to them and see if you can change things otherwise mind your fucking business.
Davy on Fri, 26th Jul 2019 11:44 am
Oops, sorry for losing my widdle temper again everyone. I can’t help myself.
JuanP identity fraud on Fri, 26th Jul 2019 12:16 pm
Davy on Fri, 26th Jul 2019 11:44 am
Oops, sorry for losing my widdle temper again everyone. I can’t help myself.”
juanpee on Fri, 26th Jul 2019 12:21 pm
“JuanPee is attempting to censor me and I am showing resistance.”
Attempting to moderate and neuter other peoples’ comments is attempting to censor them Davy. You’re being hypocritical.
Davy on Fri, 26th Jul 2019 12:24 pm
Juanpee, the more you attempt to censor me the more I will be here. I promise you this. No problems for me. I enjoy resisting your mindless efforts. You are just a poor guy who got his feelings hurt. Why were your feelings hurt, because I would not follow your orders. WTF, do you really think you can make people do what you want on an unmoderated site. LMFAO. What this shows is just how dysfunctional your personality is. You have been doing this brainless activity for a year now. That classify you as someone with a personality disorder. Obsessive stalking, trolling, and cyber bullying for lengthy periods is a clear sign you have lost your mind.
Davy on Fri, 26th Jul 2019 12:26 pm
“Attempting to moderate and neuter other peoples’ comments is attempting to censor them Davy. You’re being hypocritical.”
Bull shit juanpee, I moderate comments with comments that deal with subject matter. You are a mindless stalking troll. Huge difference. When is the last time you contributed anything of substance? You don’t, everything you do is related to brainless ad hom censorship.
JuanPee on Fri, 26th Jul 2019 12:33 pm
You have been attempting to moderate and neuter other peoples’ comments for many years now Davy. You can’t stop people from expressing their opinions on an unmoderated discussion forum. The pushback you are receiving from everyone here is fully deserved and will no doubt continue.
Davy on Fri, 26th Jul 2019 12:45 pm
“You have been attempting to moderate and neuter other peoples’ comments for many years now Davy.”
What you can’t stand, Juanpee is I am effective at calling out bullshit. You want me censored so your little group of anti-Americans can say as they please. BTW, your little group isn’t much of a group these days.
“You can’t stop people from expressing their opinions on an unmoderated discussion forum.
Please, Juanpee, people can express their opinions fine here it is called debate. What is really happening is your stalking and trolling efforts is scaring people off. Who wants to comment when a luntic is lose?? If comments are inaccurate or blatantly agenda based it is fair game to moderate. Adults can handle this but children like you can’t. What you want is a Juanpee moderated forum. I am showing you the door and it has you all bent out of shape. Knock yourself out idiot. Like I said I will be here more the more you attempt to run me off
“ The pushback you are receiving from everyone here is fully deserved and will no doubt continue.”
The pushback is from you, makato, and annoymouse. That is hardly everyone, fuck nut
Davy on Fri, 26th Jul 2019 1:17 pm
Oops, sorry for losing my widdle temper again everyone.
Psych 101. Help for Davy on Fri, 26th Jul 2019 1:32 pm
Psychological Tools: What is anger? A secondary emotion.
This post explains how anger is a secondary emotion. By understanding the roots of anger – that is, the primary emotions fueling it – people can more effectively address its underlying causes. This is an important first step in addressing anger management problems.
What many people don’t realize is that anger is a secondary emotion. What does this mean? Typically, one of the primary emotions, like fear or sadness, can be found underneath the anger. Fear includes things like anxiety and worry, and sadness comes from the experience of loss, disappointment or discouragement.
While having some “sense of control” is correlated with greater emotional wellbeing, excessive desire for control only leads to suffering, as it’s impossible to always be in control, especially of other people’s behavior.
By working with the fear, sadness, or both, you will develop more skillful ways of relating to your anger. For example, you may find that you have some unresolved grief. Or, you may notice that you feel scared about a certain outcome. That’s good data for you to work with, as it involves addressing a deeper need than the anger.
By identifying the primary emotion, you can more easily determine the best course of action to resolve your problem. For example, you can figure out whether another’s actions are truly unjust or simply a blow to your ego. Standing up for injustice, like protecting yourself or another from being taken advantage of or harmed, is rational. But, choosing to argue with somebody over something trivial is more about ego. Putting attention on the latter is a waste of energy that could be spent more wisely.
In summary, working with the underlying primary emotions is a way of decreasing habitual anger, cultivating more inner peace, and facilitating thoughtful action.
https://healthypsych.com/psychology-tools-what-is-anger-a-secondary-emotion/
Cloggie on Fri, 26th Jul 2019 1:50 pm
“they have to use junk science like IQ..All that measures is how good of a sheep you are..That is why Asians score so high..”
Right, “Asians score high”, but at the same time “IQ is junk science”.
That doesn’t add up. And of course, IQ DOES apply to these smart jews, then all of a sudden it is “Mastermind”.
Jews like I AM THE FLOP hate IQ discussions, because IQ gives whites a strong argument to resist third world immigration, as promoted by jews for a century now, for no other purpose than to destroy white civilization. In America they succeeded, which is not necessarily bad news for Europe.
Juanpee ID fraud on Fri, 26th Jul 2019 2:05 pm
“Davy on Fri, 26th Jul 2019 1:17 pm Oops, sorry for losing my widdle temper”