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Page added on January 9, 2013
Japan Explores War Scenarios with China
As Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party national defense task force announced on Jan. 8 that it would increase the nation’s defense budget by more than 100 billion yen ($1.15 billion), three of five scenarios explored by the defense ministry recently involve the Self-Defense Forces squaring off against the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).
While contingencies involving North Korea’s ballistic missiles and Russia were among the scenarios the defense ministry explored, the top three all involved a crisis in the East China Sea. The first scenario examined a war between China and Japan over the disputed Diaoyu/Senkaku islands in the East China Sea. Earlier on Tuesday Japan summoned the Chinese ambassador in Tokyo for the first time since Shinzo Abe was sworn in as prime minister to protest the continued presence of official Chinese ships in waters around the islets, which are claimed by Japan, Taiwan and China.
The second scenario, meanwhile, expands on a Senkaku contingency and looks at a widening war involving PLA attempts to seize the Ishigaki and Miyako Islands west of northern Taiwan.
The third, and perhaps most controversial, scenario focuses on how Japan would react to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan in 2021, a date reportedly chosen because it coincides with the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). According to the scenario, the PLA would rely mostly on amphibious vehicles, special forces, ballistic missiles, and a fighter blockade to achieve its ends.
Although the latter scenario makes it clear that the hostilities would primarily involve the PLA and Taiwanese military forces, it nevertheless raises the possibility that China would attack U.S. and Japanese bases on Okinawa, while using long-range ballistic missiles, such as the DF-21D and DF-31, to threaten aircraft carriers in the region and the Western United States should U.S. forces attempt to intervene in the conflict.
Interestingly, Japan would have a responsibility to come to Taiwan’s aid in the event the PLA engages Taiwanese forces, the Japanese-language Sankei Shimbun said in its reporting on the scenarios on Jan. 1.
There has been much speculation over the years about whether Tokyo would intervene if the PLA ever invaded Taiwan. Reports in 2007 alleged that Japanese and U.S. officials, alarmed by growing Chinese might, were considering a plan to coordinate their actions under such a contingency, with Japan providing rear-area support for U.S. forces as stipulated under the Guidelines for Japan-U.S. Defense Cooperation. It is no coincidence that the efforts in 2007 also occurred when Abe, who is regarded as pro-Taiwan, was in power.
The two countries late last year also agreed to negotiate possible changes to the bilateral guidelines to better reflect changes in the strategic situation as well as give Japanese forces more room to maneuver.
While the scenarios remain in the realm of speculation, Japan’s inclusion of a Taiwan contingency again underscores the importance Tokyo places on Taiwan remaining de-facto independent. Certainly, China’s assertiveness in 2012 in both the East China and the South China Sea has done little to reassure Tokyo that it could live comfortably with a CCP-controlled Taiwan so close to its waters and territory. As such, rather than being amenable to “abandoning” Taiwan, as a handful of U.S. academics have been arguing for the sake of “improved” ties with Beijing, Tokyo may become more inclined to ensure that the island continues to serve as a natural barrier to Chinese expansion.
According to Japanese sources, the largely symbolic 100 billion yen increase in defense spending announced on Jan. 8 will serve to fund research into a new radar system and to cover fuel and other maintenance costs for early-warning aircraft. But this is only the first step, and there could be many more to come. The defense budget for FY2012 ending in March was just 4.69 trillion yen (US$61 billion), or a little more than 1 percent of GDP, leaving ample room for expansion should Japan’s strategic environment continue to deteriorate in the weeks ahead.
11 Comments on "Japan Explores War Scenarios with China"
BillT on Wed, 9th Jan 2013 8:35 am
Splat! The sound heard when the Chinese military smacks Japan down. End of story.
How? Hmm. How many nuclear plants are in Japan? 22.
How many missiles to take them out and expose all that radioactive debris? 22.
Probably 1/10 the number aimed at Japan on any given day. No invasion required. Japan is finished. BTW: The plants are nicely spread out and near major cities.
Note to US. Where are YOUR nuclear plants located? How many thousand tons of radioactive waste is stored at each one? Food for thought…
Arthur on Wed, 9th Jan 2013 11:16 am
In the long term there is no other future for Japan than to become a Chinese rather than American satellite. And the moment that swap is going to happen will coincide with China throwing off the last symbols of communism, become nationalist and invade Taiwan/Formosa. China will respect Japan as a ‘distinct society’ though after that event.
ken nohe on Wed, 9th Jan 2013 11:39 am
Too much speculation here. Even after 20 years of semi-recession Japan is not yet gone and China has such a long way to go still to be a credible menace.
My Chinese colleagues have a lot left to learn to reach the Japanese level technologically let alone the American one. They know that perfectly and for that reason there will be no war. Would the tension continue to rise, the hostility will become economic and the damage can easily run into the hundreds of millions of dollars on both sides. This alone will give them food for thought.
This said, a deep economic crisis could indeed push one or both countries over the edge but I am certain that there can be no winners at such a game. hopefully, the leaders on both side are aware of that too! (I am in fact fairly sure that they are.)
LT on Wed, 9th Jan 2013 5:01 pm
Japanese society is mostly governed by mutual respect and unity. With this built-in character, Japan will always be able to ride through any storm it encounters on its path.
Whereas Chinese society is mostly governed by bribery and family & political connection. With this nature, will it survive when hard times come? Can China continue to grow for another 20 years?
Hugh Culliton on Wed, 9th Jan 2013 5:20 pm
Stop the Press! Breaking news: the military staff of a first-world state is engaging in contingency planning, paper simulations, and the professional training of their operational staffs! Everybody does this, folks! I can’t count the number of war plans we toyed with when I was working on my War Studies MA at RMC-Kingston where we just limited ourselves to invading the US! Hell, I drew up a really nice scenario back in the early ’90s where the RCN defeated the Spanish Navy and Air Force in a pitched fight over the Grand Banks n(take that you Bourbonist, Papist fish-thieves!). And, using only Newfie rum-runners and HMCS Porte St. Jean, we could take St. Pierre et Miquilone whenever we wanted with no casulties except for the Governor’s pet ferret (that’s game theory for you). Did that make such schemes the foreign policy of Canada? Of course not. It’s the job of the military to be prepared as best they can for everything from aid to civil power right through to alien invasions. When the armed forces of a nation get caught with their pants down – France 1940, Pearl Harbour, ect, the public tends to get quite cross with them. Still, given the fact that Japan can still bee seen from orbit at night, even if they turned off all the lights, they have considered territorial expantion under far less strenuous conditions. And BillT – I always read and like your posts but I have to disagree on this one. I’ve worked with the Japanese Self-Defence Force and it would not be a Chinese walk-over. What they’ve done with systems like AGEIS as well as the avionics of their air force is profound. Besides, how long do you think i would take them to nuke-up given all of the “fitted for, but not with” delivery systems they make?
Arthur on Wed, 9th Jan 2013 7:00 pm
We all agree that no threat of immanent war seems to exist, certainly not over a few rocks.
BillT on Thu, 10th Jan 2013 1:51 am
Hugh, do you think that China would give them time to ‘nuke up’? I don’t. I think it would be over in a day if China wanted to take out Japan. You seem to have such a low estimation of China’s abilities, but I don’t. Even the Us Navy knows it cannot get within 1,000 miles of China if China doesn’t want it too. I only proposed a scenario that would end Japan in a day if China wanted to do it that way. Down and dirty. But war is dirty no matter how it is run. I have little faith in Japan’s defenses if they were put into a real situation. Nor the Us defenses. The Us has not fought a real enemy in 67 years and could not win if it did.
Ken, Japan is already dead. Nothing can resurrect it’s economy. China only has to wait a few more years and Japan will self-destruct. No, it’s ‘tech’ is no longer world class. Not even close.
ken nohe on Thu, 10th Jan 2013 7:41 am
Sorry Bill, you do not know what you are talking about! Many technologies like micro-manufacturing are done almost exclusively in Japan. The global high-tech engine would stop immediately if Japan was taken out of the equation. Just look at what happened after the quake of 2011 when the whole world car industry was on the verge of stopping because just two part makers factories were damaged in the Tohoku. (Production was quickly replaced by other factories in Japan but not quickly enough not to worry many large firms.)
Where Japan is lacking is in complex system integration, think plane manufacturing, software development, SAP based global chain organization, DNA biotechnologies, etc… but in these fields China is not even a player yet, just a peon and there is no easy way to catch up quickly. Eventually, the Chinese will learn of course, I spend half my time on the phone explaining complex concepts to Chinese engineers but it will take another decade at the very least.
It would be highly foolish for China to attack Japan at this stage. The Chinese are not stupid and will therefore not do it. But short of that they intend to do everything they can to spoil the life of the Japanese and that in its own right can be a dangerous game to play.
ken nohe on Thu, 10th Jan 2013 7:50 am
As for Japan “dead”, well, if you just stay in the center of Tokyo, the largest city in the world with 36 million people, it certainly doesn’t feel dead. No city in the world comes close in many respects. New York maybe and Shanghai eventually but not yet. A quake could of course change this overnight but it hasn’t taken place yet and in the meantimes…
BillT on Thu, 10th Jan 2013 11:20 am
Well ken if you think those sources of needed electronics have not moved out of Japan or at least diversified to other countries since the Fukushima shut down, you must be blind.
As for China attacking Japan, they don’t have to, Japan is committing economic Hari kari. The country imports everything necessary to keep their economy going. How much did just the Fukushima fiasco cut the GDP? And still is, as the 20 nukes shut down are being replaced by expensive oil and natural gas. Both imported.
Tokyo is radioactive. More to come. soon the population will dwindle down as the survivors move to the countryside. Radiation is a silent killer that is not obvious for years. But … eventually it becomes visible … when it is too late.
ken nohe on Thu, 10th Jan 2013 3:15 pm
Well, on Japan committing Hara Kiri, there is unfortunately some truth to that but it is a slow process. Fukushima being a huge fiasco for the economy: true again. Extra imports of gas and oil sinking the trade balance: absolutely. Abe being the worst thing you could wish Japan as a hard core Chinese nationalist: unfortunately yes. But sometimes countries have to sink to the bottom to be revived. Well, I hope this will happen but I am definitively not sure about that.
But no Tokyo is not “radioactive”. They are hundred of thousands of people spending their time measuring radioactivity and they find next to nothing. Radiation is certainly a silent killer and we will probably see a rise of related diseases near Fukushima but beyond, probably not. As for survivors moving to the countryside, well, we’re not there yet. I can assure you that the subway is as crowded in the morning as it used to be. In fact people are still moving massively to Tokyo (about 200 to 300,000 per year which is huge) and this is not a very good thing for the country to focus so much of everything in such a giant agglomeration.