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Page added on September 15, 2014
ISIS’ Next Target: The Suez Canal
Following ISIS blitzkrieg in which it took over nearly half of Iraq and a third of Syria in the blink of an eye, at which point it created its own Islamic State Caliphate resulting in Obama’s own personal war against the jihadists, some have wondered what is ISIS’ next step: surely its leadership will not merely stagnatte as one after another US predator drone bomb away the capital Reqqa until ISIS figurehead leader al-Baghdadi is killed or gravely wounded. To be sure, the one thing ISIS, which stunned the world with the speed of its ascent, can not afford is to stand still.
So what is next on the strategic timeline for the Islamic State?
According to one source, Al Arabiya, which cites Egyptian experts, the answer is none other than the Suez Canal, and the country it is located in: Egypt.
“There is definitely a threat from ISIS to Egypt,” Mohammed Badr, a professor of political science at the University of Germany told Al Arabiya News, adding that the group has the country in its “line of sight.”
“All extremist groups represent a danger for Egypt,” Badr said, adding that “ISIS, the Muslim Brotherhood, Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis [an Islamist militant group] are all dangerous for Egypt but the level of their threat is different.”
More details from Al-Arabiya:
One alleged ISIS militant took to social media to warn Egypt that it should be expecting a “surprise” soon. “Except a surprise in Egypt within days,” alleged ISIS member Abu Siyaf al-Masry wrote on his personal Twitter account, according to the Cairo-based daily al-Masry al-Youm.
These online threats are seen by some analysts as a means to mark their presence in Egypt, despite their absence on the ground. “They don’t have any presence in Egypt until now, which is why they use the internet and social media platforms to interact with Egyptians and spread their influence,” Mohssen al-Faham, a political analyst and commentator for Cairo-based daily al-Gomhuria, told Al Arabiya News.
In recent weeks, the Islamist group started showing notable signs that it might be interested in expanding its influence in Egypt.
ISIS’ strategy on how to infiltrate Egypt, if indeed that is the case, is simple: ISIS has started to communicate with and coach Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis, Egypt’s deadliest militant group, and share advice with it on how to create secret cells.
“ISIS and Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis are linked on an ideological level even though the group is not believed to be officially linked to ISIS insurgents,” Badr said.
“Their exchange is another sign that shows a clear threat to Egypt from ISIS,” he added.
While the west is traumatized by three beheadings of western journalists in the past month, in Egypt this is almost a daily occurrence, especially if the word “Israel” is uttered. Last week, Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis, which is based in the Sinai Peninsula claimed to have beheaded four men accused of being Israeli Mossad spies in a video that seemed to have been inspired by the methods of ISIS.
Meanwhile Egypt, already deep in political turmoil with the military regime doing its best to cleanse all representatives of the US-backed Muslim Brotherhood (remember them?), appears to not be too concerned about the ISIS threat. Specifically, the possibility of an ISIS offensive was downplayed by an Egyptian Interior Ministry spokesman, who told Al Arabiya News that al-Qaeda and the Muslim Brotherhood were “the two main terrorist organizations” that threatened Egypt.
“ISIS cannot reach a country like Egypt given the cohesion between people and the unity of the nation,” Interior Ministry spokesman Hany Abdellatif told Al Arabiya News, adding that the group targets weak, failed states.
“But we [the Interior Ministry] are still getting threats of terrorism and must remain vigilant as the region is ablaze,” Abdellatif said.
And while Egypt may or may not be the next territorial expansion for ISIS, a new threat is emerging in the Middle East/North Africa region.
According to Reuters, a new armed group calling itself the Caliphate Soldiers in Algeria has split from al Qaeda’s North African branch and sworn loyalty to the radical breakaway group Islamic State fighting in Syria and Iraq. A breakaway of key Algerian commanders from Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, known as AQIM, would show deepening rivalry between al Qaeda’s core command and the Islamic State over leadership of the transnational Islamist militancy. As we expected several months ago, as Al Qaeda’s reputation in the terrorist world plummets and is replaced by the “bloodthirsty” ISISites, more and more splinter terrorist groups will gravitate to the “cool, new” clique.
In a communique, AQIM central region commander Khaled Abu Suleimane, whose real name is Gouri Abdelmalek, claimed leadership of the new group, joined by an AQIM commander of an eastern region in Algeria, where the al Qaeda wing has its base. “You have in the Islamic Maghreb men if you order them they will obey you,” Suleimane said in reference to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the leader of the Islamic State. “The Maghreb has deviated from the true path.”
The communique was posted on jihadi websites. Algerian officials did not immediately comment on the statement.
The Algeria splinter group is the latest to side with Baghdadi over al Qaeda’s aging chieftain Ayman al-Zawahri, as the Islamic State appeals to younger militants with successes in gaining territory in Iraq and Syria.
Finally, to cement the fact that Al Qaeda is no longer even remotely relevant to anyone, and certainly not the CIA, Site Intelligence reported earlier that Al-Qaeda released its annual video for the anniversary of the 9/11 attacks, and in this installment, placed group official Hossam Abdul Raouf in the prominent role of lead speaker, and denied reports of its waning influence and strength. Translated: Al Qaeda is dead, replaced by its even more ferocious, if mostly for populist purposes, spin offs, ISIS and now, the Caliphate Soldiers.
And if and when the Islamic State and its Caliphate Soldiers take over the Suez Canal, watch as all those Brent shorts, many of which are rumored to be originating at Liberty 33 itself, suddenly get a margin call.
16 Comments on "ISIS’ Next Target: The Suez Canal"
PrestonSturges on Mon, 15th Sep 2014 7:30 am
More derp from zerohedge
Davy on Mon, 15th Sep 2014 9:07 am
I find it hard to believe anything other than some terrorist attempts will happen at the Suez Canal. ISIL will be on the defensive now with the US and others focusing on them.
ghung on Mon, 15th Sep 2014 10:31 am
Davy: ” ISIL will be on the defensive now with the US and others focusing on them.”
Not so sure Davy. As I’ve said before, fighting ISIS maybe a case of whack-a-mole, with two more popping up wherever one is eliminated.
Egypt? The vast majority of Muslims in Egypt are Sunni, and the unemployment rate among the youth there is high. There are also over 70,000 Palestinian refugees in the country. Further, the Muslim Brotherhood, et al, are pretty pissed with the overall politics in Egypt. They, along with many other groups in MENA, may well see ISIS as some sort of savior. Stand by on this one, especially as the global economy becomes less tenable in these areas.
Plantagenet on Mon, 15th Sep 2014 11:08 am
How likely is it that IS will drive their captured humvees across Syria, Jordan, Israel and Egypt’s Sinai to attack the Suez Canal?
The war hysteria is really ramping up now.
Kenz300 on Mon, 15th Sep 2014 11:16 am
Too many poor, unemployed youth………..
Endless population growth leads to more poverty, despair and WARS……….
Davy on Mon, 15th Sep 2014 11:51 am
Well G, I am thinking conventional style ISIL campaign like Planter mentions. They will be a “wak-a-mole” with asymmetrical warfare. They will be the Taliban on steroids because they are utilizing some oil revenue and a vast relatively safe haven. I see ISIL as holding fast in the Sunni areas of Syria and Iraq. The western collation/Kurds/Iraqi Shia’s/moderate Syrian rebels/Assad/Iran are in no way politically or militarily able to mount the kind of offense needed to root out the ISIL. Anti ISIL folks may make some headway if the bribe the local Sunni tribes into doing some of the heavy lifting. The US airpower will tip the balance in the conventional sphere IMO thereby stopping ISIL’s advance south and into Kurdish areas. It will take pressure off Assad too IMO. Yet, with a 3 year BAU descent window being spoken about here on this forum that will seriously change the dynamics. If that is the case they could come back with a vengeance sweeping the area in the fracturing BAU vacuum.
rockman on Mon, 15th Sep 2014 12:05 pm
Obviously ISIS couldn’t take and hold the Suez Canal. OTOH I doubt that would be goal for them. We’ve read for years that sinking a ship at a critical area in the canal would shut it down for a significant period of time. Which is exactly why a parallel oil pipeline was built: the Sumed pipeline is 200 miles long. It consists of two parallel lines of 42 inches in diameter. Its capacity is 2.5 million barrels per day. Essentially it delivers oil from the Persian Gulf to Egyptian ports where it is shipped mostly to the EU buyers.
We all know how difficult it would be to protect every section of a 200 mile lone pipeline. I also suspect ISIS has access to weaponry that could disable or sink a ship in the Suez Canal. So it seems to be a question of whether they would go after either. It would certain be painful so some countries ISIS considers an enemy. But it would probably hurt Sunni controlled countries. But would that be a determining factor for ISIS?
Current ISIS appears to be contained in N Iraq and portions of Syria. Perhaps the most critical response at the moment is to keep them contained. After all, the various oil consumers and producers are primarily concerned with keeping commerce flowing. It sounds rather cold but I doubt any govt would mount a significant response if the threat was just beheading a captive once a week for the next years. Granted beheading white men would cause more of public outcry in the US and UK then what occurred some years ago when hundreds of thousands of African were slaughtered. But that was the error of those Africans for not having significant oil production in the region.
Plantagenet on Mon, 15th Sep 2014 1:01 pm
Egypt has many millions of its own Islamists—the Muslim Brotherhood. Up until the military coup a couple of years ago they ran Egypt. Its silly to worry that Islamists from the Caliphate will travel thousands of kilometers to attack the Suez Canal when Egypt has millions of its own Islamists who live right there and are angry about the coup that deposed their democratically elected president. The Muslim Brotherhood are already engaged in attacks on the police and other facilities in Egypt.
Nope—this is just another part of the campaign to whip up war hysteria against the Islamic State.
rockman on Mon, 15th Sep 2014 2:48 pm
Update on the SC. Damaging it would do a lot of damage to the Egyptian govt. But it might also turn millions of Egyptians against the fundamentalists. Perhaps that’s why the Brotherhood has left it and the pipeline alone.
CAIRO (AP) — The head of Egypt’s Central Bank said on Monday that it has raised $8.5 billion for the construction of an expansion of the Suez Canal by selling investment certificates.
Hisham Ramez told Al-Hayat TV that the bank secured the funds in just eight days by selling non-tradable certificates with a maturity of five years at 12 percent interest to Egyptian nationals.
He said that by Monday the bank had collected 61 billion Egyptian pounds ($8.5 billion).
Egypt is the gatekeeper of the canal, one of the world’s busiest water corridors and the strategic link between the Red Sea and the Mediterranean. It is one of Egypt’s main sources of income, generating annual revenues of $5 billion.
On Aug. 5, President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi inaugurated the digging of the new section of the canal in a military-led project aimed at expanding the key world trade corridor. He said it would be finished next year.
PrestonSturges on Mon, 15th Sep 2014 5:22 pm
Egypt’s population is crowded around the Nile and dependent on municipal water, electricity, and transportation infrastructure. If Islamists took over, it would be the true zombie apocalypse.
GregT on Mon, 15th Sep 2014 9:00 pm
Plant,
Very good post.
Hugh Culliton on Mon, 15th Sep 2014 9:28 pm
Is IS a threat to regional stability? Yes. Are they cold blooded? Oh yeah. But do they have their sights set on Suez? Only after smoking a bowl of Afghani Kush. No way can they get through Israel. So, until they build a navy capable of defending an amphibious assault, Suez is safe.
Makati1 on Mon, 15th Sep 2014 9:42 pm
Plant, you see the Suez picture more clearly than most here. There are only two real choke points in the ME where ISIS could cripple world trade and the world economy. The Suez and the Straight of Hormuz. Are they smart enough to use them? We shall see.
Makati1 on Mon, 15th Sep 2014 9:49 pm
Hugh, have you ever bough an airline ticket? Paphos, Cyprus to Luxor, Egypt is only 2,600 USD round trip. Five flights daily. Do you think that a few hot spots between Iraq and Egypt is a problem for a well funded group? Or a large boat is also possible if you have millions to spend.
GregT on Mon, 15th Sep 2014 11:45 pm
Hugh,
Regional stability was thrown out of the window, when the ‘coalition of the willing’ bombed Iraq back into the stone age, and removed it’s ‘evil dictator’.
The entire plan right from the beginning was the destabilization of the region, as laid out in this 1980s Israeli plan:
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/pdf/The%20Zionist%20Plan%20for%20the%20Middle%20East.pdf
“Iraq, rich in oil on the one hand and internally torn on the other, is guaranteed as a candidate for Israel’s targets. Its dissolution is even more important for us than that of Syria. Iraq is stronger than Syria. In the short run it is Iraqi power which constitutes the greatest threat to Israel. An Iraqi-Iranian war will tear Iraq apart and cause its downfall at home even before it is able to organize a struggle on a wide front against us. Every kind of inter-Arab confrontation will assist us in the short run and will shorten the way to the more important aim of breaking up Iraq into denominations as in Syria and in Lebanon. In Iraq, a division into provinces along ethnic/religious lines as in Syria during Ottoman times is possible. So, three (or more) states will exist around the three major cities: Basra, Baghdad and Mosul, and Shi’ite areas in the south will separate from the Sunni and Kurdish north. It is possible that the present Iranian-Iraqi confrontation will deepen this polarization.”
trickydick on Tue, 16th Sep 2014 5:10 pm
What ridiculous nonsense. What’s the source? According to one source, Al Arabiya, which cites Egyptian experts… which is this guy: Mohammed Badr, a professor of political science at the University of Germany… and the source of Badr’s intel is none other than Twitter!!
The entire article has to be ignored and the premise now has to be suspect. If ISIS was the real deal, they wouldn’t have to gin up fake news articles for it. It’s a couple of guys posing for shots in pickup trucks and fake beheading videos. None of it is real, except for our tax obligation, which they are trying to increase by another few trillion with a new war.