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Page added on March 17, 2016
Is This The Rationale Behind Russia’s Withdrawal From Syria?
As reported around the world, Russia’s decision to greatly reduce its military presence in Syria, coming as it did with little warning, has left the world struggling for explanations.
After having rescued the Syrian Government’s position in Syria from certain defeat and securing a partial truce along with the onset of an imminent peace conference, the partial withdrawal is seen by many as a message to the Assad government to not take Russia’s military aid for granted, and to be more flexible in the upcoming peace negotiations.
If we assume that all wars are essentially trade wars grown large, and in the Middle East, they almost always involve energy, then the Russian gambit in Syria can be viewed from a different perspective. Russia’s economy is currently in recession, partly as a result of western sanctions, but much more seriously hurt by the crashing of energy prices.
Russia’s warming relations with Saudi Arabia has helped to bring about an OPEC-Russian sponsored freeze in oil production, with only Iran refusing to comply. With the Syrian withdrawal, Russia has tempered a major political feud with the Saudis over Russia’s support for Assad, a move that at once increases the prospects for a Russian-Saudi agreement on oil production cutbacks.
There are also many who think that Russia is also increasing pressure on its allies to be more flexible, not only in peace talks but also oil production cuts. With the withdrawal of the Russian protective air shield, Iran and Hezbollah’s ground forces in Syria are suddenly exposed to the threat of Saudi and Turkish air attacks. Will the threat of a looming military catastrophe in Syria force Iran to comply with production cuts?
Many oil insiders believe that after decades of punishing western sanctions, Iran’s oil industry is in no condition to meet its avowed quota for production, so that an agreement on cuts might cause little sacrifice.
Russia’s actions may well have staved off other threats to its business. Recall that Robert Kennedy Jr., the nephew of the slain U.S. President, recently published an article in Sputnik, claiming that the major reason for the west’s attempt to overthrow the Assad government was to build a natural gas pipeline from Qatar that traversed Syria, capturing its newly discovered offshore reserves, and continued on through Turkey to the EU, as a major competitor to Russia’s Gazprom.
By re-establishing the Assad government in Syria, and permanently placing its forces at Syrian bases, the Russian’s have placed an impenetrable obstacle to the development of the Qatar gas pipeline. Russia has also placed itself at the nexus point of other new offshore gas discoveries in the Eastern Mediterranean, including Israel, Cyprus, and Greece.
It’s not hard to imagine a new Russian pipeline to Europe serving these new partners. Could easing of sanctions also lead to the implementation of the long-stalled plans of Gazprom for a second pipeline under the Baltic Sea to Germany for Russia and its partners, Royal Dutch Shell, Germany’s E.ON, and Austria’s OMV?
If so, we can be assured that the U.S. will be in fierce opposition to any such plans. As George Friedman, founder of Stratfor has stated, the American’s worst European nightmare is an alliance between Germany and Russia.
The timing of the Russian withdrawal could not be more fortuitous, as it occurs at the very pinnacle of the European refugee crisis, a crisis that was caused by Europe’s backing of the Saudi-Turkish attempt to overthrow Assad. For the first time in four years, the truce in Syria offers respite for Syrian refugees, fleeing from constant bombardment and attacks, and raises prospects for increasing security within their homeland.
Is this part of the Russian Syrian gambit? Is Russia gambling on receiving some modicum of European gratitude for helping to stem the flight of refugees to its borders, with the pay-off in terms of easing sanction and enabling its long stalled pipeline projects to be completed.
No, Putin could not possibly be so calculating, could he?
16 Comments on "Is This The Rationale Behind Russia’s Withdrawal From Syria?"
makati1 on Thu, 17th Mar 2016 7:15 pm
Russia and Putin are thinking in chess moves, and Westerners cannot begin to guess his/their plans two or three moves down the line. You can be assured that they have thought out several scenarios for their future in Syria and Europe.
The US plans for the next election, stock market opening, or golf game and it is failing at that. All I can say is, Russia is winning.
Pass the popcorn.
geopressure on Thu, 17th Mar 2016 7:20 pm
The True Meter to tell whether or not Russia is Winning is the price of oil… It has taken 2 years, but the US’s SPR is finally dry… 2016 will be a very interesting year…
The US is going to have very creative excuses for why the power is going out & why there is no gasoline; & most Americans will believe it… I think that the US will be able to hold the price of oil below $60-$65/bbl for the first half of 2016…
Harquebus on Thu, 17th Mar 2016 10:22 pm
“Who controls the food supply controls the people; who controls the energy can control whole continents; who controls money can control the world.” — Henry Kissinger.
The Rothschilds rule.
JuanP on Fri, 18th Mar 2016 8:36 am
Russia spent $460 million in Syria according to Putin. The money came from its regular military training budget. http://russia-insider.com/en/military/putin-says-russias-syria-campaign-cost-just-460-million/ri13439
JuanP on Fri, 18th Mar 2016 8:45 am
This article is mostly a pile of shit. The writer must be an American because he is confused and deluded in that peculiarly American way that allows one to ignore all inconvenient truths about the role the USA played in all this by sponsoring terrorism across the world.
Practicalmaina on Fri, 18th Mar 2016 8:46 am
460 millikn, that doesn’t even cover Cheneys kickback.
Davy on Fri, 18th Mar 2016 9:02 am
“Russia spent $460 million in Syria according to Putin.” Sure thang and pigs fly. 9,000 sorties, moving and supporting 20,000 personnel, equipping a destroyed army all for $460MIL. I have noticed Russia is engaging in propaganda efforts lately. This is happening with their economy and with the war in Syria. This conflict in Syria is not mission accomplished yet. It could yet fall apart. It is the same BS that the US did in Iraq and Afghanistan. The war was embellished as a great victory and on the cheap. Doesn’t that sound too good to be true?
Let’s give Putin a round of applause for his actions to this point. He did a very good job strategically and tactically. We must remember Hezbollah and Iran are part of this. In fact they did the heavy lifting of the ground operations. The Russians were merely support with air and training. Putin likely did this Syrian campaign on the cheap and with good results. Yet, he almost pushed the world into a WWIII. He put his troops at extreme risk with a conflict with Turkey Russia surely would have paid for dearly. He would have hurt Turkey worse but for what gain?
Putin is withdrawing likely because he can’t afford to be there in an open ended conflict. He has the potential dangers of a conflict with Turkey. We know Turkey and KSA will keep this conflict simmering on. Putin is trying to get out with a victory. He may succeed and if he does this will give him another medal to put with his expensive foreign policy collection of Crimea, Ukraine, and revitalized military. Meanwhile his resource driven economy is tanking. Elections are coming up. Putin is a great chess player so he may pull this all off. Let’s see if he manages to boost oil prices to make Russia great again.
Practicalmaina on Fri, 18th Mar 2016 9:10 am
Like a good investor he is maximizing ROI, I am sure the US and allies would not mind if Russia got stuck in Syria as the Soviets did in Afganistan. But Putin has been watching the US make the same mistake in the ME and is not about to follow suite.
Anonymous on Fri, 18th Mar 2016 4:39 pm
Meanwhile, americas war and fraud based economy are tanking. And americas (fake) elections are coming up. Lets see if the Trump can make americant great again.(lol)
What ‘mistake’ has the uS made in the ME Pract? If there was one, it was that the uS would ‘win’ Syria for PNAC and that Syria would be easily overrun by the USlamic state. The uS didnt figure Russia and its anti-terrorist coalition partners would actually intervene on the ground, much less defeat the uS’s pro-terrorist coalition. But the empire underlying strategy of funding proxies like ‘ISIS’ and a permanent state of warfare and instability, is no ‘mistake’,its offical policy.
In both cases, the uS created and funded shadow terrorist ‘armies’ which were both characterized as freedom fry lov’n rebels by the media whores in the ‘uS homeland’. Then and now, Russia was the ultimate target. In both cases, the uS goal was to defeat a local pro-Russian gov’t. That goal, was not a ‘mistake’ either. The only difference this time around, is that things have not gone as smoothly as the uS expected and the effort to turn Syria into another Libya\Iraq is way over budget and way behind schedule.
But thanks to the internet, people around the world are much better informed and broadly aware of the true nature and motives of the amero-zionist empire and its dirty wars than they were in 1979, when the yid\cia controlled press in the uS(west) had a complete monopoly on what the sheeple ‘knew’.
Russia is not trying to ‘follow’ suit here, because Russia’s goal is not to permanently destabilize the region for all the byzantine reasons of the uS empire. Its goal, was to help prevent the fall of Syria to the uS’s fake ‘rebel’\ISIS proxies. Mission accomplished? Not yet, but the President never claimed that. The uS are sore losers and even now, will try to find a way to repair and rebuild the USlamic State, or some re-branded group, for another attempt to balkanize Syria.
onlooker on Fri, 18th Mar 2016 5:44 pm
Very good and accurate assessment by Anonymous of what is happening in Syria and the wider Middle East. It is no coincidence that as the economy of the US falters it uses more and more its military to project power and try to achieve its imperialistic goals. China and Russia are standing up to the US and denying the continued global financial hegemony of the West. Even as the entire framework of civilization begins to go down the tube, the Power continue to vie with each other. A sad testament to the current state of humanity and its sad downward spiral that in retrospect seems to have been inevitable considering our nature and how fossil fuels allowed our nature to find its ultimate conduit or medium.
makati1 on Fri, 18th Mar 2016 9:07 pm
“Why America Needs War”. The proof is in the 12 years since this was written.
http://www.globalresearch.ca/why-america-needs-war/5328631
Continuing into today and the future…
http://www.globalresearch.ca/america-keeps-moving-towards-world-war/5514596
Why do we think we need a huge military?
“– You are 35,079 times more likely to die from heart disease than from a terrorist attack
– You are 33,842 times more likely to die from cancer than from a terrorist attack
…1,904 times more likely to die from a car accident than from a terrorist attack.”
http://www.globalresearch.ca/the-terrorism-statistics-every-american-needs-to-hear/5382818
And the drums beat on….
JuanP on Sat, 19th Mar 2016 7:14 am
What Moscow gained in Syria, http://russia-insider.com/en/politics/what-moscow-gained-syria-and-future-goals/ri13445
Boat on Sat, 19th Mar 2016 9:07 am
“Why America Needs War”
“Why do we think we need a huge military”?
Bla Bla, just what we need, more conspiracy.
So mak, is that why Russia is in Crimea and Syria. To boost the economy?
Anonymous on Sat, 19th Mar 2016 2:47 pm
Russia is ‘In’ Crimea because it has always been ‘In’ Russia. An idiotic question only an american would ask.
To pile on the stupidly of the above comment, Russia’s presence in Crimea has definitely improved the economy there. Seen the numbers from Ukraine lately? There awful, really bad, like uS level of mismanagement bad. The people of Crimea have been spared much of the misery the uS backed coup gov’t has inflicted on its own people.
And…..
Russia is ‘In’ Syria, because they were formally asked by the gov’t to be there. To offer assistance and aid. Which they have done, quite lawfully and legitimately.
JuanP on Sun, 20th Mar 2016 6:40 am
Russia’s Syrian strategy, https://www.rt.com/op-edge/336259-putins-syrian-strategy-american/
Davy on Sun, 20th Mar 2016 7:55 am
Putin’s gamble is not over. Mission is not accomplished. Syria is a mess and more of a mess now that the Russians bombed it further into the Stone Age. Who is going to pay for reconstruction? It is likely the case for several reasons good and bad why Putin is leaving Syria but total victory is not it. The claims of 480BIL cost for this operation is a joke that points to widespread Russian propaganda show. RT reminded me of Fox News with all their coverage of the Russian Syrian campaign. Putin worship is alive and strong. Get back to me in 6 months. If all is well then you can claim victory for your god man leader.