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Page added on February 11, 2016
Is The US Leading Saudi Arabia Down The Kuwaiti Invasion Road?
For the first time in a long time I feel concerned and worried about the prospect of war. The reaction of Saudi Arabia to the Russian intervention in Syria has always been the wild card in the shifting geopolitical power base in the Middle East. Turkey and Israel, along with Saudi Arabia are the three countries with the most to lose because of a strong alliance between Syria, Iran, Hezbollah, and Russia.
These three traditional American allies have been accustomed to Western support in regards to their own specific regional goals and ambitions. This support has been so staunch and counterproductive to regional stability that the growing comfort and alliance between Iran and the US should be both confusing and worrisome to Saudi Arabia and Turkey.
On the one hand the US is making agreements with Iran and lifting sanction while on the other hand it is indirectly supporting Saudi Arabia’s and Turkey’s proxy war against Syria. A war which Iran, along with the support of Russia and Hezbollah, are resisting and countering with massive aerial and ground support.
This contradiction is suggestive of another and more complex strategy which may be unfolding in the Middle East. A strategy which is beginning to look familiar.
Back in 1990 when Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait the state of the Iraqi dictator’s mind was both paranoid and desperate. The once American supported leader at some point felt he would have the blessings of the US administration in his regional adventures. The controversy surrounding US Ambassador April Glaspie’s comments to Saddam regarding having no interest in Iraq’s border dispute with Kuwait, and her later vindication by the release of a memo, is somewhat irrelevant as Saddam obviously felt the support was there. Whether through direct and straightforward communication or through trickery.
Once Iraq invaded Kuwait the Western press mobilized and a massive propaganda campaign against Saddam Hussein commenced. The once American ally was isolated on the world stage and suffered one of the worst military defeats in the history of warfare.
The interesting parallels between 1990 Iraq and 2016 Saudi Arabia are unlikely to be coincidental. Both have militaries which were built with American equipment and support. Both were used by American interests to counter Iranian regional ambitions. Both supported the sale of their domestically produced crude exports in US dollars.
In support of this conclusion we find the recent statement of Iranian Armed Forces’ Chief of Staff Major General Hassan Firouzabadi, who stated:
“US Defense Secretary [Ashton Carter] is supporting and provoking the House of Saud to march to the war [in Syria]. This is an indication that he is at a loss. It also proves beyond any doubt that they have failed.”
Are we to assume that the US strategy in the Middle East is at a standstill? I seriously doubt that and America’s agreements with Iran would support something else being afoot. America may be misleading Saudi Arabia down the same road as it led Saddam Hussein in the buildup to the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait in 1990. Except this time the aerial bombardment will come from Russian forces and the mop up crew will consist of Iranian and Hezbollah forces.
Further support for this conclusion comes from the recent comments of John Kerry where he said “what do you want me to do, go to war with the Russians?”
Why is there this disconnect and contradictory approach within the American government? I seriously doubt that it is caused by opposing factions within the US establishment. A potential war of this magnitude will not be left to the whims of domestic bantering and browbeating.
Saudi Arabia and Turkey are both pushed into a corner over the shifting power base in the Middle East. The paranoia and desperation, like Saddam in 1990, could very well cause both countries to commit to the very act of aggression which will lead to their ultimate demise and removal from a position of influence within the region.
Are we on the verge of another war?
Perhaps. But I still content that it will be a regional war only and that the objective of that war will be the removal of once American allies who have been funded and provided with the equipment which will now have to be destroyed and removed from the region.
In the post The Coming Islamic Revolution in Saudi Arabia I wrote the following:
“There is a growing consensus that there may be a division within the Saud family itself. This is the one thing that could very well finally topple the monarchy. The House of Saud could be tearing itself apart with opposing strategies.”
“One strategy is based on maintaining socioeconomic and military control over the country, and working with other nations, such as China, on developing business contracts which are not based on crude, but on other sources of revenue which can be gained from alternative energy sources, such as nuclear.”
“The other strategy involves a conclusion where the Shiite majority which is building up around Saudi Arabia will eventually incite revolution within the country as the conflict in Yemen spreads further across the border, and deeper regional integration between the Shiite players takes place.”
It is plausible that an overthrow of the House of Saud would benefit the American strategy against China. The divisions within Saudi Arabia make it ripe for such a strategy explained above. Especially if there is a faction of the House of Saud which would be willing to take control of what remains and fit within a larger Middle Eastern regional alliance.
A negotiation with China regarding crude sales in renminbi as discussed in the post The Petro-Renminbi Emerges, could very well be the macro-geopolitical and macro-socioeconomic strategy which is unfolding here. Such an outcome would benefit both China and Russia, while also maintaining a check on Iranian regional ambitions.
To think that the US would enter into a major war against Russia over Saudi Arabia is fraught with mindlessness and madness. The more probable strategy is the overthrow of the House of Saud, or at least a complete restructuring of the countries place within the Middle East.
Will Saudi Arabia take the bait and invade Syria? I think we may know that answer sooner rather than later.
43 Comments on "Is The US Leading Saudi Arabia Down The Kuwaiti Invasion Road?"
Davy on Thu, 11th Feb 2016 7:20 am
So many emotions on Syria and all the players. There are so many emotions that it is likely something bad is going to come of this. Religion and hatred have a way of doing this. Civil wars don’t care about the spoils of war they are wars of retribution and destruction. If our incompetent diplomates can keep us out of WWIII or luck we will likely see a divided Syria and Iraq along an ethnic and religious divide.
I see little hope for a united Syria after so much hate and bloodletting. Tell me how a Sunni will ever live under a Shia regime supported by Iran, Hezbollah, and Russia. Tell me how the Sunni world will ever tolerate the same as a dominant force sweeping across Syria and Iraq. Likewise Russia, Iran, and the Shias have their rightful place and they have boldly taken it.
What is the result of this conflict is a destroyed land that will be of no benefit to anyone and will only continue to spawn extremism. No nation or group of nations is going to have the resources to rebuild this region especially with the global system crashing. It is increasingly evident that the world is going to be preoccupied domestically with crisis.
There can be no great war to rescue the economy anymore because the global world is too interconnected. If one happens by accident the global economy will shut down in a matter of weeks. Factories will close, food will rot, and gas pumps will be empty. This will stop the war quickly if the war does not destroy the world quicker.
The likely outcome of this Syrian civil war is a division between powers with new boundaries. These boundaries may not be agreed upon but they will be de jure by circumstances on the ground. The most important thing the global world could do now is get over unnecessary conflict because what is coming is going to take everything we have to keep a lid on basic stability.
joe on Thu, 11th Feb 2016 7:56 am
Call me what you want. But I recall another leader in 1939 making a red line, which was crossed, and that leader backed down, this caused his enemy to make a deal with another enemy and this led to a war of unimaginable scale and scope and ambition. The faustian pact with the Saudis will see any invasion of Syria by any offical Arab army other than Syrias will ensure a conflict in central Asia every bit as bitter and evil as Europe in the 1940s. It will bring Shia and Sunni conventional armies closer than they have been since the 1980s when Irans main weapon was legions of child suicide bombers. No of course Iran brandishes more than suicide bombers, and has the active support of Russia, who daily, have less and less to lose. Figured out Americas role? The US can, at any time, put a leash on Israel and Saudi by slowing re – armament as they use up US made weapons. All the US has to do is to turn its international law rhetoric and ngo’s loose, to justify a slowing of the pace. Sad truth is, i doubt very much there is a bigger scheme beyond making money and causing trouble.
paulo1 on Thu, 11th Feb 2016 8:51 am
regarding: “the growing comfort and alliance between Iran and the US should be both confusing and worrisome to Saudi Arabia and Turkey.”
Come on, that’s a bit of a stretch, isn’t? Comfort and alliance? The US doesn’t know what it wants, or how to go about finding it other than crap like, “Make America Great Again”.
How about, “let’s be a good world citizen and try and improve things for all”. Oh, I forgot, when you think you’re the ‘big dog’ and want the last bone, it’s hard to make nice.
When Saudi goes down there will be a lot of oil taken out of the market. It’ll be a nightmare. Turkey is corrupt, pure and simple.
More and more world actors remind me of a school playground. It’s exactly the same. God help us, the kids are in charge of the school.
Joe said it all in his last sentence: “Sad truth is, i doubt very much there is a bigger scheme beyond making money and causing trouble.”
penury on Thu, 11th Feb 2016 9:40 am
Truth is the first victim of war. From the remarks I feel that there is a great discrepancy between what each person knows is the truth. history will be written to benefit the winners so pick your propaganda carefully.
Nonya Bizzne on Thu, 11th Feb 2016 11:30 am
The House of “Fraud” in Saudi Arabia was built on greed and a hunger for power. It is not a popular government. It is a dictatorship of ONE FAMILY over an entire nation. The House of Fraud will come down due to its own internal strife, greed and backstabbing because its foundations were invalid and false.
Danny on Thu, 11th Feb 2016 12:13 pm
Balkanization of the Greater Middle East… Since peoples cannot coexist, they ought to separate, or be subjected to cleansing. Alawis in Turkey and Syria; Kurds in Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran; Maronites in Lebanon; Copts in Egypt; Shi’a in Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Yemen… Each “minority” is counted in the millions; and each minority is subject to eradication!!! Which ones will be wiped out off the area they live in; and which ones will survive into some sort of statehood??? Forget not on whose ashes was modern Turkey was established! Will that repeat itself on the Kurds in Turkey? And if that succeeds in Turkey, what’s the Kurds’ fate in Syria and Iraq? If Assad goes away, what’s the fate of millions of Alawis in Syria? Even if Assad survives, still what’s there fate??? New pockets of massacres and genocides will predate the emergence of rival new statehoods!!! After all, “Who remembers the Armenians today” as Hitler pointed out at Poland’s pre-invasion!!!!
Salim on Thu, 11th Feb 2016 12:15 pm
Worth reading article.
bardavidi on Thu, 11th Feb 2016 12:45 pm
By inviting saudi and Turkey to a syrian invasion we are asking for a regional-war that would include other elements that would not sit on the sideline such as Iran,Israel and Russia itself…….When it comes to a mid-east policy Obama and company do not have one and are steering the whole region in to a civil war with no defined goals or objectives.Trying to rescue a defunct Jihadi agenda is not a policy for US but playing in to the hands of Wahabbi-radicals we should be annihilating and not helping…….No policy is a bad Policy…..
Truth Has A Liberal Bias on Thu, 11th Feb 2016 12:46 pm
The Sykes–Picot Agreement is unraveling. It was not really a good idea to begin with. There have been 2 changes to the map since the Sykes–Picot Agreement was signed. One is the state of Israel. The other is ISIS/the Islamic Stare/Caliphate. A Kurdish State will likely be the next one. The Sykes–Picot Agreement has lasted for so long because it was backed up by the barrel of a gun. Just as the Ottoman Empire was in the same region before it. All political power grows from the barrel of a gun. As the states created by the Sykes–Picot Agreement decentralize and fragment old rivalries will be rekindled. Formed Yugoslavia was no different. It would do most stupid yanks no harm to learn a little history and develop some pattern recognition skills.
tahoe1780 on Thu, 11th Feb 2016 1:24 pm
Good summary in my opinion: http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2013/12/understanding-syria-from-pre-civil-war-to-post-assad/281989/
mick lockwood on Thu, 11th Feb 2016 1:51 pm
where ever this goes , one thing for sure its not going to be good
Sufi Dole on Thu, 11th Feb 2016 2:26 pm
But can the Saudi’s actually fight a ground war, against the battled hardened veterans of the Iran’s Revolutionary Guard? And wasn’t the current scenario somewhat in the pipeline from the day the “Arab Spring Revolution” started? Perhaps, even before, closer to the time, when the 9/11 was conceptualized?
Mason on Thu, 11th Feb 2016 2:32 pm
whatever is happening or going to happen if Saudi,Turkey and Israel as well as Iran and Russia gets involved in the whole affair its going to be a real mess.. USA must get involve and resolve the situation before it gets out of hand .. there will be a lot of killing of innocent human beings …
eastman on Thu, 11th Feb 2016 3:13 pm
mason, saudi cant drink water without US’s permission it is all neocons plan instigating the syria war at first place pushing saudi to their end.
JOHN on Thu, 11th Feb 2016 3:44 pm
If third world war erupt in the end kurds will have an independent country..
BLUEOWL on Thu, 11th Feb 2016 4:35 pm
Obama is an idiot and a weak MF.
Mike Mulrennan on Thu, 11th Feb 2016 5:14 pm
The Saudies are not stupid. They won’t be so easliy used by the big guys but as usual it’ll be wait’n’see.
george on Thu, 11th Feb 2016 5:26 pm
Rev”I recall another leader who made a red line’
Well it looks like Turkey gassed the Syrians and Obama (and the rest of us too) knew it. Thank God he was smart enough to let it pass and not be pressured into making the wrong move.
Obama will be known as one of the smartest presidents ever. Live with it. His achievements are impressive. Sadly, using terrorism as a cornerstone of his foreign policy will prevent him from being remembered as a great president.
twocats on Thu, 11th Feb 2016 5:54 pm
“The Sykes–Picot Agreement is unraveling. It was not really a good idea to begin with. There have been 2 changes to the map since the Sykes–Picot Agreement was signed. One is the state of Israel. The other is ISIS/the Islamic Stare/Caliphate. A Kurdish State will likely be the next one. The Sykes–Picot Agreement has lasted for so long because it was backed up by the barrel of a gun. Just as the Ottoman Empire was in the same region before it. All political power grows from the barrel of a gun. As the states created by the Sykes–Picot Agreement decentralize and fragment old rivalries will be rekindled. Formed Yugoslavia was no different. It would do most stupid yanks no harm to learn a little history and develop some pattern recognition skills.” [Truth]
Add on to that the Great Game of Final Oil Control and Extraction with each Actor (regional and global) having their own agenda, and you’ve got quite a scene. These pieces (e.g. Syria) are like central squares on a chess-board, controlling them in and of themselves is an advantage.
TropicalStorm on Thu, 11th Feb 2016 8:52 pm
Insane, but quite possible.
makati1 on Thu, 11th Feb 2016 9:11 pm
George, you have lost it. Obama will go down in history as the worst president ever. Even surpassing the Village Idiot, Bush Jr. He can only play golf, and read the teleprompter, saying whatever his masters want him to say. If the Nuremberg Laws of WW2 were applied to the Us presidents, none since WW2 would be free. They would all be in jail or worse. But the Us has ignored international law for decades. The piper must be paid though and the pain coming to America will be far in excess of that suffered anywhere else in the world when the SHTF.
makati1 on Thu, 11th Feb 2016 9:18 pm
The Empire is desperately trying to start WW3 and seems to be failing. Think of where the recent fuses have been lit by the Us. South China Sea, Ukraine, Poland, and now Syria. In all instances, the plans of the Empire have been blocked by either Russia or China or both. If the East can keep it from happening for another few years, the Empire will disintegrate from within. China and Russia know this and are patiently applying the needed pressure to speed it up. Wait and see.
Zawadul Jamil on Thu, 11th Feb 2016 9:28 pm
The Saudi’s are not stupid? who else will cut the oil price to punish Iran and US at the cost of it’s own economy and people? They are stupid and biggest stupid is the deputy crown prince, who is running the show now.
VARTAN BEDROSIAN on Thu, 11th Feb 2016 10:01 pm
IN FEW WORDS 100 SHAMES ON SAUDI ARABIA
AND THE CRIMINAL TURKEY JOINED THEIR
ENEMY ISRAEL AGAINST PALESTINIANS.
NOW THIS APPEARED TO ALL OTHER ARAB
MUSLIMS THAT SAUDI ARABIA AND ALL GULF
COUNTRIES WITH ISRAEL AND BEFORE LIES
AND THEY WERE WITH THEM AFTER KING FAISAL KILLED.
PEACE ACTIVIST
GregT on Thu, 11th Feb 2016 10:01 pm
“who else will cut the oil price to punish Iran and US at the cost of it’s own economy and people?”
That would be the trillion dollar question. Need another hint? It isn’t the Saudis.
Boat on Thu, 11th Feb 2016 10:52 pm
There are large chunks of American society that enjoy low gas prices. But Brazil, US, Canada and Iraq all increased production and participated in building the glut.
Wally Ray Sparks on Thu, 11th Feb 2016 11:05 pm
It’s the CIA’S hail merry strategy: Pit Israel against Iran and focus more on the mother lode of resources to plunder!
The takeover of Saudi Arabia has been America’s ultimate goal! Who are their friends? China?
Apneaman on Fri, 12th Feb 2016 12:03 am
Boat, there are large chunks of American society that are large chunks. A veritable glut of waddling large chunks.
jerry harshman on Fri, 12th Feb 2016 12:59 am
Very interesting article, yes I remember when U.S. ambassador lured Saddam into invading Quwait, that was a Bush CIA scheme that worked, but Saddam was both stupid & greedy enough to make it easy. The Saudi’s are another matter, used to dealing with Western powers schemes, but they are also internally divided, fat & lazy, they know they want to get rid of Assad, but are dependent on Turkey to do the fighting, & Erdogan is wisely afraid of Russia. The U.S. is using the Saudi’s in running another of its famous bluffs, hoping to scare Russia into folding, but Russia is calling that bluff & raising, they are holding high cards & know it.
Northwest Resident on Fri, 12th Feb 2016 1:19 am
jerry — Interesting interpretation of events. Or, alternatively, that could just be what they WANT us to believe and they’re merely playing out roles on the world stage, the goal being to entertain and distract — and frighten — the masses, same as always, while achieving hidden objects. Manipulation, propaganda and population control — very important work for TPTB! Or, it could all be just like you say…
Freedom lover on Fri, 12th Feb 2016 10:12 am
Obama’s Neo-con inspired Mid-east policy of regime change/proxy war against Russia has been a complete and dismal failure. Russia now holds the upper hand and Obama now has to suck up or go to war. The flank of having SA and Turkey send it troops is just another “lead from behind” strategy that has failed in the past, will fail now and could start WW3.
CoolHand on Fri, 12th Feb 2016 10:47 am
What exactly would set your mind at ease?
Is it to have Iran trample on Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon, leave Israel and the Persian Gulf states defenseless, and thus give afford Russia free reign in Syria with which to harass Turkey and the southern flank of NATO?
The problem with a pacifist world view is that the pacifist becomes a killer when he realizes that there is no one left to defend him.
GregT on Fri, 12th Feb 2016 11:26 am
Coolhand,
Are you one of the Sheep? Or a shepherd? Hard to tell.
twocats on Fri, 12th Feb 2016 11:41 am
Or, alternatively, that could just be what they WANT us to believe and they’re merely playing out roles on the world stage, the goal being to entertain and distract — and frighten — the masses, same as always, while achieving hidden objects. Manipulation, propaganda and population control — very important work for TPTB! Or, it could all be just like you say… [NW Resident]
I’m not saying there isn’t mass manipulation and propaganda going on (that’s my wheelhouse for sure). But don’t imagine that EVERYTHING going on is purely for propaganda purposes. These people aren’t as cynical and monolithic as all that. They believe they are powerful, they believe they are an ongoing-interest (i.e. don’t believe their world is ending), and they believe they’ve got moves to make in the real world against rival powers. TPTB are actually extremely positive, proactive, optimistic. It’s everyone else they believe to be hopeless, which is what allows them to treat them with such cynicism (propaganda). These are the “winners” that “Truth Has a Bias” was referring to earlier.
onlooker on Fri, 12th Feb 2016 1:17 pm
“TPTB are actually extremely positive, proactive, optimistic. It’s everyone else they believe to be hopeless, which is what allows them to treat them with such cynicism (propaganda” Which is ironic since their policies have been and are showing ever more to be suicidal for themselves and for humanity as a whole. I would say this “optimism” is rather delusional thus.
don gotshalk on Fri, 12th Feb 2016 1:21 pm
Obama obviously could care less if Assad stays in power. Kissinger and Bryzinski both pointed out that this is what should happen in the end. It gets the US off the hook.
Problem:
Turkey, Egypt, Jordan, the Emerites and most of all Saudi Arabis can not let that happen. Their survival is at stake.
As for the tens of millions of people who live in the Middle East nobody else really cares.
makati1 on Fri, 12th Feb 2016 6:06 pm
onlooker, I have to agree with your analysis of TPTB. They seem to be getting desperate because they are losing and most of them are too old to live much longer. If it drags out another decade they will all be dead and will have lost.
Just look at the ages some of the power players today. The most visible are Soros, Brzezinski, George H.W. Bush, Alan Greenspan, etc.
Soros is 86.
Brzezinski is 88.
Bush is 91.
Greenspan is 89.
Even the youngest are in their 60s.
MOHAMMAD HASANAHMAD on Fri, 12th Feb 2016 9:54 pm
Assad will never agree to partition Syria. It will mean that his Alawite sect will be wiped out clean by the Sunnies as happened to Alawites in Lebanon in 1932 on the call of a single Sunni Mulla.More likely Syria will become another Israel with the Alawites as the new jews.Secondly America will never go to war with Russia, too risky. All in all it is the end of Saudia.
twocats on Fri, 12th Feb 2016 10:37 pm
Which is ironic since their policies have been and are showing ever more to be suicidal for themselves and for humanity as a whole. I would say this “optimism” is rather delusional thus. [onlooker]
good point. it is dangerous to believe one’s own propaganda. The system says that we become Wealthy by our own gumption, ingenuity, hard work, risk taking. Most wealthy are where they are by historical contingency or luck of birth. In order to quell that cognitive dissonance they swallow the lie of the system and puff themselves up.
JohnD on Fri, 12th Feb 2016 10:47 pm
Saudi Arabia is a state sponsor of islamo-fascist terrorism. The Saudi royal family created, nurtured and expanded Al Qaeda and has been directly responsible for every increasingly more barbaric offshoot, like Al Nusra and ISIS/L. Saudi Arabia sinks billions of its petro-dollars into American politicians and media industries to shield itself from its criminality and push a self-serving narrative to Western audiences, even as it funds terrorist groups committed to the destruction of those Western societies. Saudi Arabia and its partners in state sponsored terrorism, like the muslim brotherhood controlled Turkey, need to suffer regime change for the sake of regional stability and the safety of Western populations.
GregT on Sat, 13th Feb 2016 12:40 am
“Saudi Arabia sinks billions of its petro-dollars into American politicians and media industries to shield itself from its criminality and push a self-serving narrative to Western audiences”
They aren’t Saudi Arabian petro-dollars John, they are American.
joe on Sat, 13th Feb 2016 9:30 am
Its very disturbing that NATO shows such unflappable tolerance for the clearly ethnocentric (pro-Turk) policy of Turkey. If America treated blacks the way Turkey treats kurds it would be Jim Crow times again. Wake up America, NATO is on the side of wrong in relation to Turkey. Turkey switched from secularist to some new heady mix of sunni-islamist kind of chauvinism. They are being friendly to Sunni Arabs because their Ambition is rebuild the influence they once had when they were Ottomans. Thats all. Many Arabs see Turkeys groing Islamisation as a route to a Caliphate but both sides will be disappointed witn the result. Theres a reason it failed the first time.
Ed from NY on Sun, 14th Feb 2016 1:33 pm
Yes! KSA invades Syria, Russia uses tactical nuke to destroy KSA army. Sunni Obama kills off Shia KSA without lifting a finger.