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Page added on January 18, 2015
Is Moscow bluffing on redirecting European gas supplies?
Moscow says it’s planning to build a pipeline to the Turkish-Greek border and no longer ship natural gas to Western Europe through Ukraine within 3 years. The project is far more about political competition than economics.
Russia has announced that it will stop supplying Europe directly with natural gas via pipelines that transit through Ukraine within three years, Russian news agencies reported last week.
The move threatens the European Union‘s energy security and may force Europeans to move quickly to wean the continent from its long-standing dependence on Russian gas.
Russia says it will use a newly-announced pipeline through Turkey to bypass Ukraine and channel about 60 billion cubic meters of gas — about 40 percent of all Russian exports to Europe — to a new gas hub on the Greek-Turkish border. Europe will be required to make its own arrangements, including building new pipelines, to collect and distribute the gas.
To be sure, a full agreement has not been reached with Turkey, nor has construction begun on what will be an expensive, multi-year project.
According to Bloomberg, European energy officials were blindsided by the Russian announcement.
“We don’t work like this,” the agency quoted Maros Sefcovic, the European Commission’s vice president for energy union, as saying. “The trading system and trading habits — how we do it today — are different.” The Russian decision “makes no economic sense,” Mr. Sefcovic insisted.
But experts say Russia’s pipeline strategy for Europe over the past decade has been politically-motivated, designed not to sell more gas or deliver it more efficiently, but to circumvent the Soviet-era Friendship pipeline system that hitherto carried the bulk of Russian oil and gas exports through Ukraine to Europe.
Russia has regarded Ukraine as an unreliable transit partner since the Orange Revolution in 2004, and repeatedly tussled with Ukrainian governments over the terms of delivery. On two occasions, in 2006 and 2009, such Moscow-Kiev gas wars led to shutdowns that left downstream customers in Europe shivering.
In 2011 Russia achieved half its strategic objective by inaugurating the Nord Stream pipeline under the Baltic Sea, which delivers gas directly to Moscow’s most important customer, Germany.
But a $45 billion southern leg, known as South Stream, designed to do the same for customers in central and southern Europe, ran afoul of escalating political tensions over Ukraine last year. When the European Commission convinced Bulgaria to suspend its participation in South Stream, Russian President Vladimir Putin reacted by cancelling the entire project last month.
The cancellation of South Stream widened political rifts within Europe, especially among those countries that had been hoping to benefit from a huge pipeline that would bring Russian gas directly to them.
Russia’s announcement last week that it will now deliver all its gas to a “hub” on Turkey’s border with Europe has set up more controversy, with the European Union denouncing the move, but countries that stand to benefit, like Greece, applauding it.
Some pro-Moscow commentators argue that Mr. Putin’s moves have been fast-footed and brilliant, confounding his European detractors and strengthening Russia’s bargaining position with the EU.
But Mikhail Krutikhin, a partner with RusEnergy, a leading Moscow-based energy consultancy, says Kremlin policies are incoherent reactions to Europe’s unexpected internal solidarity over maintaining sanctions against Russia for its Ukraine policies.
“This Turkey project is not a project at all, it’s really just an idea. It’s not even clear whether Turkey supports it, since there’s been nothing signed except one vague memorandum of understanding,” he says.
“It really looks like the Kremlin is just trying to blackmail Europe, but it’s risking the loss of its biggest market in doing so. We’re talking about 60 billion cubic meters of gas annually, which Russia has no alternative markets for, at a time when Europe is well on the way to developing its own energy independence. It smacks of desperation, not brilliance, to me.”
22 Comments on "Is Moscow bluffing on redirecting European gas supplies?"
J-Gav on Sun, 18th Jan 2015 5:25 pm
I don’t pretend to know who this Mr Krutikhin is, but if he’s stupid enough to say something like “… at a time when Europe is well on the way to developing its own energy independence,” I’m not at all sure I’ll be citing him as a reference.
dissident on Sun, 18th Jan 2015 6:38 pm
Who’s bluffing? It’s not Russia. The South Stream project is over. Period.
Makati1 on Sun, 18th Jan 2015 6:43 pm
J-Gav, this is just another propaganda piece from the dying West. Too many ‘talking points’ from Imperial sources with no proof to back them up. I have not seen any indication that Turkey has NOT agreed to go with the pipeline, or is wavering. That is Western wishes, but not fact.
I read all the articles about Russia and China these days and try to sort out the grain from the ‘chaff’ … and there is a lot of ‘chaff’. Mostly from the Western (sponsored) sources.
Russia did not start the Ukraine fiasco, the US did. Russia has been trying from day one to settle the problem with negotiations but the US is having none of it. The US no longer has diplomats, just sales people for the MIC.
That Putin is one or more steps ahead of the DC Mafia is becoming more and more obvious to the rest of the world. Perhaps the US lap dogs, running the EU, should have given the whole stupid plan some thought before kissing O’s ass and putting their own economy/safety in jeopardy? Too late now. The West is becoming Japanized and cannot print their way out of trouble anymore … unless it is to burn those Euro (Weimer Republic) notes for heat.
Apneaman on Sun, 18th Jan 2015 7:21 pm
There are probably enough Americans who would make fine diplomats, but they are not welcomed inside the beltway. That is now completely corporate controlled. Same as with the military. Competent people showing any signs of honesty, morality and duty are quickly purged, imprisoned like Chelsea Manning, forced to flee like Ed Snowden or even beat up like Ray McGovern (75 year old, retired CIA officer).
“In a time of universal deceit – telling the truth is a revolutionary act.”
– George Orwell
redpill on Sun, 18th Jan 2015 9:14 pm
Mak, you are full of shit.
Your backstory is that you served years in the U.S. military, became disillusioned and now reside in the Philippines.
All the while you take a constant shit on the U.S. while at the same time being very much for the Russian side of things.
Either your backstory is bullshit, or you’re leaving some juicy details out as to why your now pumping Putin from the Philippines.
Douche!
Apneaman on Mon, 19th Jan 2015 12:17 am
Red pill, your comment is nonsensical. Sounds like you think his story needs to fit some either or script. Read Morris Berman. Another US expat who cannot stand the empire. He makes Mak sound overly polite. Mostly sounds like someone got their little patriotic feelings hurt. Some of the harshest critics seem to be ex military, same as staunchest defenders.
Makati1 on Mon, 19th Jan 2015 1:57 am
Apneamna, I enjoy the likes of red as they only confirm my current view of the West and especially the USSA. The devolution of intelligence must be from the excess Big Macs or some other destructive source as it is so wide spread there. (Oops pun not intended.) Name calling is for 8 an year old who has no intelligence to form a cogent (convincing)rebuttal.
My “backstory” is totally true as I learned a long time ago to not waste my time trying to lie. I don’t have to try to remember what I told whom if it is always the truth. And if you cannot take the truth, that is your/his/her problem, not mine. I didn’t make this world, I only see what is happening in it and preparing to ease my final decades as best I can. I am not beholden to anyone and don’t have to give a damn about what others think. THAT is real freedom.
American Idiot on Mon, 19th Jan 2015 4:19 am
Fantasy is over. These idiots can never figure out who holds the cards.
Davy on Mon, 19th Jan 2015 5:20 am
Makster said – My “backstory” is totally true as I learned a long time ago to not waste my time trying to lie.
Mark Twain Said – It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.
Mak, your message is disqualified from being true in my book. Agenda’s use selective truths and facts hence distortions that is blatant propaganda. I will not deny some of your facts on your Evil Empire message. My point is you have an agenda that is only concerned with Anti American propaganda. You have no interest in balance or objective truth.
Your message is personal and results from a failed life in the US that has left you bitter. All you have to show for your 70 years is an American Social Security check. You have nothing else. I would not mention this normally because it is a personal swipe but you distort the truth on a daily basis in regards to my country and my people. These distortions and unbalanced attacks by extension attack me and those I love. I reject those here who say this attitude of mine is misdirected. I will not enable a cry baby with his foul spirit to attack me and my people in an unbalanced and subjective way.
I have made many attempts at coming to a compromise in the name of friendship. We have much in common in our doomish views. I only have asked you for balance and objectivity not a message change. This is a global interconnected world of nations competing within one common system. All major powers are engage in political and economic gamesmanship. I never deny that the US is a major power in decline on all levels. My point is the global world is in the same predicament and because of this mutual decline suffers many of the same destructive tendencies found in a broad based decline.
Your message promotes the anti-American axis diminishing anything western and especially American. Your message further represent propaganda in its daily focus. We all know it is the repetitive nature of propaganda that increases its effectiveness. The truth does not need to be constantly mentioned because it has a special quality that manifests itself. In general the truth will touch you and you will know it if you have an honest heart without agenda’s. You Mak are not honest at heart. In fact you deceive yourself by your claim of facts and the truth.
You claim all your sources are the truth and anything that disagrees with your message and agenda is propaganda from the evil empire. There are virtually no sources today that are not biased. We are in a highly competitive world that is seeking comparative advantage. Any message will have a starting point with a point of view and seek a message. All sources have agenda’s based upon this starting point. It is those sources that seek balance and objectivity that are closer to the truth. Then it is the reader that looks at all sides and filters out the agendas to get at facts that occur on all sides.
Davy on Mon, 19th Jan 2015 5:27 am
AP said – There are probably enough Americans who would make fine diplomats, but they are not welcomed inside the beltway.
AP, this is a well-made point and I agree. It shows balance within an anti-American bend but it is balanced. The US is full of good people and these people eventually will power through the filth. Life cycles and these trends manifest themselves periodically. It is probably the war on terror and the gutting of the financial regulatory systems that allowed a small group of thieves to take over DC & NY. Their hold on power is by no means assured. I will also mention I know of no other major power that has not been corrupted by global money and militaristic political power. This is especially true of China and Russia.
andya on Mon, 19th Jan 2015 9:01 am
The EU is developing its own energy independence? That is very interesting!
Apneaman on Mon, 19th Jan 2015 11:41 am
Davy. How do you know Mak has a failed life? Who are you to even define success for someone else? Has he failed because he does not have as many toys as you? Sounds like what your saying is anyone who does not meet your criteria of success is a loser. You have tried to hang the same, rich mans judgement on me before too by suggesting my anger stems from not being what you consider successful; having what you have. Being born sucking a silver spoon makes you a winner by default then I guess.
redpill on Mon, 19th Jan 2015 11:51 am
Thank you Davy for your expanded, adult take on what I was trying to capture with “Douche”.
GregT on Mon, 19th Jan 2015 12:05 pm
Davy,
If you read Makati’s comment again:
“I enjoy the likes of red as they only confirm my current view of the West and especially the USSA.”
You might notice that he also includes “the West” in his ‘current view’. I happen to live in the ‘West’ myself and I agree with Makati’s view. Just because I live in the ‘West’ does not
mean that he is personally attacking me, nor does it mean that he is personally attacking ‘Westerners’. You should really try harder to separate yourself from the corrupt system that the ‘West’,
and especially the USA, has become. Just because you happen to live in a corrupt state, does not make you yourself corrupt.
Kenz300 on Mon, 19th Jan 2015 12:12 pm
Alternative energy sources are more reliable and can provide locally produced energy and jobs. Both are needed. The transition to safer, cleaner, cheaper and more reliable sources of energy continues.
“GDF Suez SA plans to double renewable power production capacity in Europe over the next decade as the utility shifts its focus away from developing more historic natural gas and nuclear energy sources in the region.”
“Our goals are ambitious,” Chief Operating Officer Isabelle Kocher said”
“GDF Suez wants to raise renewable output capacity in Europe to 16,000 megawatts by 2025 from almost 8,000 megawatts in mid-2014, it said.”
———————–
Utility GDF Suez Plans to Double European Renewable Capacity by 2025
http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2015/01/utility-gdf-suez-plans-to-double-european-renewable-capacity-by-2025
GregT on Mon, 19th Jan 2015 12:25 pm
“True patriotism hates injustice in its own land more than anywhere else.”
Clarence Darrow
True patriotism is to hold ones own governments and institutions accountable. To question everything, to accept nothing. Patriotism has nothing to do with chanting anthems or flag waving, and especially has nothing to do with the support of military adventurism.
redpill on Mon, 19th Jan 2015 12:47 pm
GregT, I think you miss the difference between being critical and being an asshole.
And taking offence at M’s consistent, one-sided discourse isn’t a sign of being a thin-skinned flag waving twit, a too large demographic in the U.S. to be sure. It’s an appropriate response to someone in the throes of assholery.
GregT on Mon, 19th Jan 2015 1:07 pm
red,
What exactly in Mak’s comment above, do you find to be so objectionable, that you feel the need to call him an asshole?
redpill on Mon, 19th Jan 2015 1:30 pm
Greg, you have been on this forum long enough to have noticed that that was not Mak’s 1st comment or that the overall majority of his comments are nothing but poo-flinging at the U.S.
Not intelligent criticism, poo-flinging. And this from someone cashing U.S. social security checks; textbook assholery.
J-Gav on Mon, 19th Jan 2015 2:53 pm
Red – Social security checks? I think Mak is cashing retirement checks, which means he put in a lifetime of work and therefore (given all that was taken out of his monthly paychecks during that time)is entitled to something. Where’s your problem with that?
J-Gav on Mon, 19th Jan 2015 3:21 pm
Red again – Mak is poo-flinging? May be, but that’s going to be part of an exchange of views on a site such as this, isn’t it? We might all need to be slightly less judgmental than we are (including myself)if we want to avoid falling into the trap of ad hominem attacks.
I don’t alway agree with Mak either but I can’t manage to see him as evil incarnate. And Davy, everybody’s viewpoint is skewed to some extent by personal experiences, trials and tribulations. I think we just have to accept that and try to make as fruitful a dialog as possible out of it. Sure, when trolls move in, have at them! (Think Noob).
But Mak’s not a troll, that should be obvious to anyone who’s followed his comments over time. I see a lot of sincerity there, whether or not I agree with the conclusions.
Apneaman on Mon, 19th Jan 2015 3:34 pm
Social programming works. Especially when you start them young, like in kindergarten, pledging allegiance to the flag or fuhrer. Like many victims of parental abuse the well programmed citizen sheep will defend the abuser for life. All countries have their ways of control, but the more powerful the country the bigger the bullshit national myth. Independent minded, critical thinkers do not make for obedient sheep and limitless cannon fodder.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bellamy_salute