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Page added on June 1, 2014
Is A Russia-Japan Natural Gas Pipeline Next?
A group of Japanese lawmakers are interested in pursuing a $5.9 billion natural gas pipeline project with Russia.
Following Russia’s historic $400 billion natural gas supply deal with China last week, Japanese lawmakers are looking to revive efforts to tap into Russian natural gas supplies themselves. A Bloomberg report shows that a group of 33 lawmakers in Japan are backing a 1,350 kilometer pipeline that would run between Russia’s Sakhalin Island and Japan’s Ibaraki prefecture, just northeast of Tokyo. The project is estimated to cost $5.9 billion and could yield as much as 20 billion cubic meters of natural gas per year (equivalent to 15 million metric tons of liquefied natural gas). The pipeline would make up 17 percent of Japan’s imports.
The Japanese lawmakers backing the proposal belong mostly to the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and the New Komeito Party. The renewed interest in the pipeline is primarily due to Japan’s own energy shortages following the shutdown of all of Japan’s 48 nuclear reactors following the March 11, 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami, which caused a triple meltdown at the Fukushima Daiichi plant. The Democratic Party of Japan government at the time decided to shut down Japan’s nuclear plants and begin moving the country away from a reliance on nuclear power following a public backlash after the Fukushima crisis.
Based on current plans, natural gas originating on Russia’s Sakhalin Island would be transported via the Sakhalin-Khabarovsk-Vladivostok pipeline where it will be processed into liquefied natural gas for export to Japan. Russia has considered additional undersea and land-based pipelines to deliver gas to China, North Korea, and South Korea in the region, including one pipeline that would deliver gas to South Korea via North Korea.
For Russia, a pipeline deal with Japan would be particularly compelling. Japan is the world’s largest LNG importer, having purchased 87.49 million metric tons of LNG in 2013 according to the Japanese finance ministry. Despite being the largest importer worldwide and its proximity to Russia, Japan only imported 9.8 percent of its LNG from Russia. The proposed pipeline would see that number grow substantially, in part because Japan could import natural gas instead of LNG. LNG is costlier to transport. Naokazu Takemoto, the Japanese parliamentarian heading the group in favor of the pipeline, estimates that “the price of natural gas will be two times lower than the export of liquefied natural gas.” Politically, given Russia’s current isolation with the West over its actions in Ukraine, a pipeline deal would also gain Vladimir Putin some vitally needed political currency. Indeed, Russia’s recent deal with China was likely motivated by the Kremlin’s political concerns — China seems to have won a deal at a very favorable price.
If Japan and Russia formally begin negotiations for a pipeline, Tokyo will likely be able to win a favorable price as well. As Europe tries to reduce its dependence on Russia’s natural gas, Russia will lose a certain amount of leverage in negotiations. The group of Japanese lawmakers will propose the deal to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who will study the feasibility of the deal in June. It is likely that Abe will propose the deal to Vladimir Putin when he visits Tokyo later this year.
6 Comments on "Is A Russia-Japan Natural Gas Pipeline Next?"
Makati1 on Sun, 1st Jun 2014 8:16 pm
China, South Korea, Japan. ALL will eventually be supporting the bear if the US doesn’t get a war started there soon. There is even talk of India getting Russian gas and oil. When you are supplying the only real growing countries on the planet, you get to hold a big club.
Ask the US how big their club WAS after WW2. Now it is not even a stick as they have to import half their real oil and many other needed resources. How long would the US last if their oil imports were cut off? 90 days? Less? In order to support their military and security, it would take most of what the US produces to maintain a grip on the world. How long do you think the sheeple would do without their gas/diesel so their government could wage wars in other lands? Is that why the government is arming all of it’s departments like a war is coming?
The world is getting more interesting and ‘hotter’ every day.
(Partly cloudy and a high of 93F/34C today here in Makati. Chance of thunderstorms later in the day. Humidity 67% Visibility, ~2 miles. The beginning of the typhoon season and the first day of school for the kids.)
peterjames on Sun, 1st Jun 2014 8:46 pm
Mak, the US has upwards of 1.5 billion barrels of oil, in either the strategic reserves, or the various points of the supply line. As it imports less than half its oil needs, it would last nearly half a year without an import. Add in a few rations, and it could extend it well past a year. For a couple thousand of those barrels, it could destroy what ever pipelines or shipping that was supplying its enemies (who dont have the same available reserves). The simple fact is, Russia exports a great deal of its energy, because it is weak. Weak things require less energy.
clueless on Sun, 1st Jun 2014 9:56 pm
That’s all US can do…invest in the industry of war non stop to feed it’s “decorative” economy. Now the whole world knows. Pathetic !!!
Makati1 on Sun, 1st Jun 2014 10:09 pm
peter…does it? After all, you are relying on government numbers. How many of those are real in today’s world? And, do you think that civilians will have access to that oil? I doubt it. Government/military first. Necessary commerce (war materials) second and the dregs to the sheeple last. Rationing is the best you can expect. After all, they are already preparing to ‘take care’ of you in their FEMA camps and all that ammo they are buying.
As for taking oil … lol. You really need to look at the new reality. Russia is a nuclear country, ditto China. Do you think they will just let the US destroy their supply lines? China could lose 70% of their population and still have more people than the total US. They can keep the US at bay with their new carrier killers. And they could cripple the US by taking down the US satellites and ending the internet. They already demonstrated that capability. It would take all of an hour, at best, to stop the US, if they wanted to. In today;’s world, there is no place to hide that is safe. A missile can reach anywhere in a few hours.
MKohnen on Mon, 2nd Jun 2014 1:42 am
Peter,
What you said might be conceptually true, but it doesn’t mean much. If you look at WWII and the bombing of infrastructure, it turns out that, when people are pressed, infrastructure can be rebuilt quite quickly. Even so, if the US disrupted global oil severely enough, it would most certainly suffer, too. The Russian’s and Chinese have such current records of mass suffering that I’m sure their people are psychologically more prepared. The US and Canada? Not so much.
As for Russia being weak because of its dependency on shipping out its oil, the US has shipped out its industry, and now desperately wants to ship out its oil and natural gas, too. So I don’t think the US is all that strong, either.
bobinget on Mon, 2nd Jun 2014 9:50 am
WE can do what I did to solve gasoline shortages during WW 2.
Hearing mother complain about ‘gas’ rationing and how the tank was never full, I took matters into hand and hosed that 1938 Chevrolet tank up to the brim.
The four-door actually made it to the end of the block.
While never admitting to water substitution, I was a prime suspect.