Iran Set to Double Nuclear Fuel Capability

Israel’s ‘red line’ could be hit in June, the point when Iranians have enough 20%-enriched uranium to produce a warhead

Iran has finished installing nearly 3,000 nuclear-fuel production machines at its underground military facility near the holy city of Qom, providing Tehran the capability to double its production of medium-enriched uranium in the coming months, a new report said.

These advances, outlined in a report on Iran by the International Atomic Energy Agency, the United Nations nuclear watchdog, could allow Tehran’s Islamist leaders to accumulate in as little as three to four months enough uranium enriched to 20% purity for one atomic weapon, according to nuclear experts.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has cited this level of nuclear-fuel production by Tehran as the “red line” for when the Jewish state might launch military strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities. Iran was likely to amass this stockpile of fissile material by next summer, Mr. Netanyahu estimated in a September speech at the U.N.

The installation of the nearly 3,000 centrifuge machines at Qom could allow it to reach this point much quicker, experts say, if the machines there and at a second nuclear-fuel site at the city of Natanz are utilized.

“The number of centrifuges are steadily increasing, which diminishes the time for a breakout for a nuclear weapon in two ways,” said Olli Heinonen, a former chief weapons inspector at the IAEA. “Iran’s inventories will increase as well as its pace of production.” Tehran says its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes and denies it is pursuing bomb production.

Iran currently has a stockpile of 232 kilograms of 20% enriched uranium, or about 510 pounds, of which 96 kilograms has been detected for the production of fuel plates, according to the IAEA. Nuclear experts estimate that Iran would need 220 to 250 kilograms to produce one nuclear weapon.

They said Iran’s rate of quarterly production could grow to around 25 kilograms per month with the Qom facility fully operational.

To make a bomb, Iran would then need to convert this stockpile to weapons-grade levels, which is around 90% purity. It has the technology to do so, by reconfiguring centrifuges, in an additional few months, say experts.

The Obama administration and European governments said Friday that the advances at Qom intensified their desire to resume negotiations with Tehran over its nuclear program. The Qom site is of particular concern to Israel because of worries it could be impervious to an air attack.

Three rounds of talks held so far this year between Iran and the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, plus Germany, have achieved few results. But U.S. President Barack Obama said this week that he will use his Nov. 6 re-election to push for a fourth round of negotiations between these two sides by year-end.

A U.S. official who studied the IAEA’s new report said Western countries are closely monitoring Qom to see when, and if, Iran will put on line all 3,000 centrifuges. “The fact that they’re now capable of producing a lot more raises questions,” said the official. “Why haven’t they turned them all on yet? Is it a threat?”

The U.S. hopes that growing economic sanctions on Iran will force Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to make concessions at the negotiating table. Iran’s currency, the rial, has dropped nearly 80% since last year, due, in part, to the West’s financial war.

The IAEA’s director general, Yukiya Amano, also pressed Iran in his report to cooperate with his agency in addressing evidence that Tehran has secretly been developing the technologies used for nuclear weapons. Mr. Amano has specifically been seeking to gain access for agency inspectors to a military site, south of Tehran, called Parchin. IAEA investigators believe Iranian scientists have used the site to conduct studies aimed at developing an implosion device for a nuclear warhead.

Mr. Amano has specifically been seeking to gain access for agency inspectors to a military site, south of Tehran, called Parchin. IAEA investigators believe Iranians scientist have used the site to conduct studies aimed at developing an implosion device for a nuclear warhead.

Tehran has repeatedly denied the IAEA access to the site. And Mr. Amano charged in his report that Iran has been attempting to cleanse the site of any past nuclear work by removing soil and cleaning up facilities.

“When the agency gains access to the location, it’s ability to conduct effective verification will have been seriously undermined,” Mr. Amano wrote.

A team of IAEA officials is scheduled to visit Tehran on Dec. 13 in a bid to gain access to Parchin, as well as documents and officials believed to be involved in Iran’s nuclear work.

WSJ