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Page added on March 14, 2017
How Shale Is Reshaping The World: Three New Wars
We recently met with geopolitical strategist Peter Zeihan to discuss world events since the American election and his new book, “The Absent Superpower: The Shale Revolution and a World without America.” In the book, Peter credits energy and resource innovations with reshaping the global geopolitical environment.
We covered so much ground in our visit with Peter that we decided to break it into two reports. Last month in part 1, we covered the broad impact of the Shale Revolution, which he calls, “the greatest evolution of the American industrial space since 1970,” and which he expects to accelerate the breakdown of the global order as we know it. Today, in part 2, we examine the major global shifts in geopolitics that will result as the US moves into energy independence. Peter believes this will reshape global geopolitics, leading to three major conflicts – Russia vs. Europe, Iran vs. Saudi Arabia & an Asian Tanker War. It is these conflicts we asked him to discuss in greater detail. We hope you enjoy the discussion.
GAVEKAL CAPITAL: We last left off discussing how the oil export ban could be rescinded if global geopolitical issues flare up. What are you on the lookout for?
PETER ZEIHAN:There are three big conflicts I see that could cause a major schism between what the US pays for oil and what the rest of the world pays for it. I’m talking about a potential global oil price of around $150 per barrel while the US pays only $50 per barrel thanks to shale oil in the US and a resumption of the ban on oil exports. The break-even cost in the United States is around $40. If you put the embargo back in place, you’ve got a functional ceiling on how high the price can be domestically. If shale overproduces and you can’t export the crude, then it’s a question of refining capacity which can’t be built out that quickly.
War number one is Russia vs Europe. The Russian demographic situation is already untenable and it’s moving into catastrophic. By the time we get to about 2020-2022, the size of the Russian army will be less than half of what it was last year. The post-Soviet Union baby bust was that sharp, so if they are going to use their military in an attempt to re-shape their world, they have to do it now. And in many ways they already are. Depending on which scenario plays out -I list several in my book -anywhere from two to seven million barrels per day of crude in the market goes offline. Former Soviet Union oil shipments are in danger in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Eastern Poland, Belarus, Moldova, Ukraine, Northeast Romania, Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia. That list is the entirety of Russia’s western energy exports. The Russians will either use oil as a political tool, or the targeted folks will say, “You’re not going to sell crude through us while you’re conquering us.” Either way it’s going offline. And because Russian energy production is in the permafrost it can’t be shut in safely. If you turn off the wells, they freeze solid and you have to re-drill them, so from the point that the Russians stop production in a field, it’s 10 years minimum to bring it back online.
One of the biggest mistakes I think people make when analyzing Russia is they don’t realize that the Russians are not thinking about money right now. The general consensus is that the Russians won’t do anything to disrupt the flow of oil because they need the oil income. That’s not how the Russians are thinking at all. Their current borders are completely unsustainable, and they only have a short window to do something about it. The Russians see the end of their country on the horizon, and they’d rather have that be 60 years from now than five years from now. There’s no route for withdrawal: they’ve got to get through to the Carpathians, the Caucasus and they’ve got to get to the Polish gap and the Baltic Sea.I believe Russia’s move to extend its border is going to fail, but if I were Putin right now, I wouldn’t have a better plan. And that will take, based on which scenario goes down, between two million and nine million barrels of crude offline, and five BCF and 12 BCF of natural gas.
GC:What do you think of the relationship between Trump and Putin?
PZ:For two men with egos as large and as fragile as Trump and Putin, I can’t imagine they’re going to get along for long. However, for 2017 both of them have a lot reasons to focus on other issues, so burying the hatchet for the moment makes a lot of sense. Also, the United States has no long-term rationale to get involved in a ground war with a nuclear-armed power who’s a shell of its former self, with nothing to lose and who is invading countries that aren’t even defending themselves. I expect the rhetoric to pick back up, but for 2017, I think it’s going to be pretty calm in bilateral relations. This will free up Russia to act more aggressively regionally. That means Ukraine is even more in play. That means breaking up the European Union. That means consolidating the former Soviet space. All of that is going to go into high gear this year and next.
GC:What’s Russia’s interest in breaking up Europe?
PZ:If the Europeans are squabbling –and it’s not a difficult task to get the Europeans to squabble –they can’t form a common front against the Russians unless they’re American-led. So if the Americans step back for their own reasons, and you can keep the Europeans at each other’s rhetorical throats, Russia can take advantage.
GC:What would be the bell that would ring that would announce to the world that Russia is on the move?
PZ:We have the French nationalists saying that the Russians are intervening in French national elections just like they did in the US. So the bells are ringing left, right and center. It’s happening. We’ve already had civil discontent in Latvia and Estonia caused by Russian efforts.
GC:Who goes to bat for these countries?
PZ:Well, if it’s not the United States, if you’re the Baltic countries, it’s Sweden. And I think they will. But Sweden can’t roll back the Russians by themselves. They can make it hurt like hell. For Poland, it’s Germany. The Poles just get the bad end of every stick throughout history, and they’re about to get another one. For Romania and the Caucasus, it might be Turkey. Although the Russians are doing everything they can to make sure that the Turks don’t want to get involved, and so far it’s working. Poland, plus Germany, plus the Scandinavians, plus the Brits are sufficient to roll the Russians back.
GC:Are you starting to see movement of personnel and material in anticipation of this?
PZ:All three of the Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania) have given up on conventional warfare. They have largely, for all practical purposes, disbanded their conventional militaries and they’re training their entire population in guerilla tactics. They know what’s coming. And the number one country to assist them with that is Sweden. The Finns are basically breaking out all their grandfathers’ equipment and getting ready for another Winter War.
GC:Geographically, is it easy to roll into the Baltic states and Poland?
PZ:Estonia and Latvia are nearly as easy to roll into as Poland. Lithuania is a little bit more difficult. There’s a lot of forest; it’s a bit more rugged. But rolling back the Russians on land has to be German-led, and the Germans don’t have an army right now. They’re the only ones who have the demography to potentially fill a force that could do it.
GC:What could Europe do that would be sufficient for Trump to want to get involved?
PZ:If they doubled defense spending in the next 12 months, that could at least get the conversation started. But if the free trade era is over, if Bretton Woods is over, why would you get involved if you are the US? It’s not a ridiculous position, even if Trump makes it sound that way sometimes.
GC:Does the US continue selling weapons to everyone?
PZ:Oh, of course, the US isn’t that crazy! The US will still pick sides, will still provide intelligence and might even rent out a bunch of drones. I don’t mean to suggest there’s no American role, but the idea of the US Army coming to the rescue, that’s off the table. As we discovered in Crimea, NATO’s rapid reaction divisions are only 500 troops each. In the aftermath of Crimea, only four divisions of 500 troops were sent. The US provided one, Canada provided one, Poland finally provided one, and the other one was all the other NATO counties put together.
GC:How many Russian troops are in Crimea, Ukraine, right now?
PZ:It is tough to know exactly but I’d say at least 15,000 Russian troops are in Crimea. On paper, the Russian military is still basically a million-man army. They are not, man for man, nearly as good as American troops, but they’re better than Spanish troops or Italian troops or Polish troops. In order for Russia to pull this off they probably need at least 100,000 troops. You’re talking about two million square miles and 70 million people. You’re not going to do that with 10,000 people.
GC:This is going to take a massive mobilization effort on Russia’s part, right?
PZ: Well, the mobilization won’t take as long as you’d think because there’s already at least 25,000 Russian troops on the Ukrainian border, not counting the ones that aren’t officially in Ukraine proper.
That process has already started. The Ukrainian military has basically been decapitated. You haven’t heard a lot about Ukraine recently because the Russians sent in a few special forces troops to bait the Ukrainians to send out their own best troops –their American-led, American-equipped troops –to the front. Then Russia used regular army and air force to kill all the commanders of all the best units. So all that Ukraine has left now are reservists. When the war comes, unless the Ukrainians resist to the last man, the regular, organized resistance is already over. It’s just a matter of how fast do the Russians want to push into Kiev.
Now, once they get to Kiev and the bridges over the Dnieper River, you enter a slightly different sort of war because you move into Western Ukraine which is not a Russified Ukraine. You’re more likely to have civilian resistance in Western Ukraine. But that first half, if that takes a month, I’d be really surprised. Belarus will welcome Russia in, and Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania combined are only six million people. Moldova can’t manage political opposition to Russia, and the Russians already have an active military base with 10,000 troops. So that just leaves Romania. If Romania and Poland are the great hope for the West in this war, then it is not looking good.
GC:Do you think that war starts this year?
PZ:I don’t know when it will officially begin, but with the way the political relationship is going, and with what I think is about to happen in Europe, it’s a golden opportunity. The Russians can’t maintain this tempo with the demographic situation for very long so the sooner they start it, the better. If you start it before the Europeans start to function like nation-states again, and if the Americans have already exited stage left, it’s a perfect opportunity. Once the ball gets rolling, this will take several years to play out. I think maybe the end play for Russia is to get the Germans to say, “Okay, you can have Ukraine, but you can’t have Poland. Okay, you can have Belarus, but you can’t have Poland. Okay, you can have Estonia, but you can’t have Poland. What? You took Poland? You can’t have Romania.” That’s basically what the Russians are hoping for. It’s not a stupid plan. That would be their preferred path. And it’s worked before. “Okay, you can have Eastern Poland but we draw the line at Western Poland.” That’s World War II.
GC: What is war number two?
PZ:So Russia vs. Europe starts on its own, not over energy security but energy is a clear casualty. Conflict number two is Iran vs. Saudi Arabia in the Persian Gulf. If the Americans remove themselves from keeping those two powers apart because America no longer cares about keeping oil flows out of the Persian Gulf safe then those two countries fall into direct competition. Eventually, that competition turns into an attempted Iranian invasion of Saudi Arabia.
GC: How does that play out?
PZ: There’s a 300-mile desert gap between Kuwait and the oil fields of Saudi Arabia, and it’s not clear that the Iranians can make it across. What the Saudis are doing right now in Yemen is target practice for that, they’re preparing, learning to use their military equipment, particularly their air force, to turn that northern desert buffer into a kill zone. Right now, they are doing it pretty well. Will it be enough? I don’t know. The Saudis would rather not face a war at all, but they know that in a post-Bretton Woods world, without American protection, over time the Iranians will bury them. So just as the Russians feel that they’re on a limited time scale to create more sustainable borders, the Saudis feel they’re on a limited time scale to crush Iran. The 2015-2016 oil price war then wasn’t really about shale, it was about Persia. And to be perfectly blunt, it hasn’t worked as well as the Saudis hoped.
GC: So will the Saudis try to develop nuclear weapons?
PZ: No, if it comes to that, Saudi Arabia will just buy them. They can get them from Pakistan and that conversation has already happened. Pakistan has 150 nuclear weapons, and if they can sell them for $1 billion a pop, they are happy to do it. The Saudis are already providing them with subsidized oil in order to make sure that those lines of communication never close. Assuming no one else gets caught in the crossfire, that’s potentially another 11 million barrels per day of crude off the market when these two countries go at it. And if other countries get caught in the crossfire, it goes up to 20 million barrels per day. So the Persian Gulf is War #2.
GC: Is it connected or disconnected from the Russian war?
PZ: Disconnected. It could start any time, it could start tomorrow. When the Iranians realize what the Saudis are up to and that it can kill them, that’s when this war begins. The Syrian war has taken a turn that is relatively pro-Iranian recently, so Iran isn’t feeling stressed. A year ago, it was going a very different direction. ISIS is probably the calmest, kindest sort of group that the Saudis will form over the next few years because it is proving that it wasn’t enough. Now, I don’t mean to suggest that the Saudis are pulling the strings of ISIS; they just formed it and then let it go off on its own. And as long as ISIS is killing Persians and Persian allies, the Saudis are totally fine with it. And the Saudis will form more groups, they’ve probably already formed a hundred groups in the last six years alone. Most of them are fighting in Syria but not exclusively, some of those groups like Jundallah are already in Iran.
GC: What is the third war?
PZ: The third war is dependent on one of the first two: it doesn’t matter which one happens first, either one will trigger the third war. If you have an oil shortage anywhere in the world — because Russia is on the move toward Europe or because Iran is invading Saudi Arabia — energy security and availability for the rest of the world becomes a question of transport routes. The world’s longest, most vulnerable transport routes are from the Persian Gulf to Northeast Asia. Based on whichever country you are in, that’s anywhere from 5,000 to 7,500 miles. If you have a shortage anywhere, Northeast Asia has to eat the entirety of the shortage because they are furthest from the wells. And, worst of all is that there’s not enough to go around for the Koreans, the Taiwanese, the Chinese and the Japanese. Somebody has to go without, and the country that goes without is the country that cannot physically defend crude oil on a convoy route from the Persian Gulf all the way home. So the third conflict is an Asian tanker war, and that triggers all kinds of different results.
GC: Who will be the winners and losers of the tanker war?
PZ: The countries that have the longest reach, like Japan, will probably be able to protect their transport routes the whole way so they should be OK. Japan has by far the strongest navy in that region of the world. Countries that have a deep and abiding experience at bribing people, such as Korea and Taiwan, will probably pay India to fly cover for them for the first part of the trip through the Indian Ocean. This could work out for them, but it comes with a lot of risks. The Chinese have a serious problem with naval power projection and are going to have to establish bases closer to the oil source. That means China will probably have to invade chunks of Vietnam and the Philippines so that they can turn the South China Sea into an internal lake. If they successfully do that, then that’s a 1,000 miles less they have to worry about transporting and protecting their energy supply.
Ultimately though, I would expect the Chinese to lose the tanker war because of how much oil they need and their relative lack of naval strength. I think the tanker war will be the shortest of the three wars, but it’ll be the most colorful, because it basically breaks down the entire structure that has sustained Northeast Asia’s economic ascension for the last 60 years.
By the end of these wars, I would expect us to see around $50 oil in the US, $150 oil in Paris and over $200 oil in Beijing (assuming any crude can make it to Beijing at all). The whole supply chain model that has made East Asia successful for the last 50 years will be gone. All that manufacturing capacity has to relocate, or because of the global demographic breakdown and the energy crisis, all that capacity may just disappear because of lack of demand.
Peter Zeihanis the best-selling author of “The Accidental Superpower.”
98 Comments on "How Shale Is Reshaping The World: Three New Wars"
eugene on Tue, 14th Mar 2017 7:20 am
The great innocent vs the great evil. It is so wonderful to be amongst the righteous.
Hello on Tue, 14th Mar 2017 7:25 am
So you hear the man, boys and girls. War in europa this very year.
Ah zerohedge, what can I say?
Cloggie on Tue, 14th Mar 2017 7:53 am
Zerohedge is run by a Bulgarian Jew named Daniel Ivandjiiski, who has a criminal record (financial fraud, what else is new with these folks):
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero_Hedge
In 2009, shortly after the blog was founded, news reports identified Daniel Ivandjiiski, a Bulgarian-born former hedge-fund analyst who was barred from the industry for insider trading by FINRA in 2008, as the founder of the site, and reported that “Durden” was a pseudonym for Ivandjiiski. One contributor, who spoke to New York magazine after an interview was arranged by Ivandjiiski, said that “up to 40” people were permitted to post under the “Durden” name. The website is registered in Bulgaria at the same address as that of Strogo Sekretno, a site run by Ivandjiiski’s father, Krassimir Ivandjiiski. Zero Hedge is registered under the name Georgi Georgiev, a business partner of Krassimir Ivandjiiski
Zerohedge is not really globalist though and regularly has interesting posts.
So, who is this Peter Zeihanis fella, who is so keen to get wars started in Europe and the Middle East?
Surprise, surprise, he is a American writer, for periodicals like the WSJ, meaning he is a globalist and not your regular Alex Jones guest.
In reality there is zero chance that Germany or France or Russia will start a war against Russia, let alone the other way around and the chances of a war between Iran and KSA are also very remote, albeit slightly less so.
This chap, who makes his money as a “key note speaker”, so he is obliged to come up with some sensationalist message to “enrich” his audience, professes that the EU will fall apart. Although I hope that the UK manages to kick itself out of the EU, I fear that even that is not going to happen.
I would advise the good mister Zeihanis to carefully read the latest column by mr Kunstler, just in case Zeihanis is on the lookout for a place where real conflict could start, just in case something happens to DJT.
Cloud9 on Tue, 14th Mar 2017 7:56 am
Russia is white. Eastern Europe is white. When I was in Prague, the local government was doing everything they could to stem the Muslim invasion from the south. The white Europeans are being pushed to the point they will coalesce into a homogenous force supplied by Russian oil. American influence in the region is waning.
TheNationalist on Tue, 14th Mar 2017 8:05 am
More hysteria and paranoia from the ministry of truth.
Crimea was always a Russian military base with a majority Russian population. Eastern Ukraine is full of ethnic Russian minority groups that disagreed with the coup in West Ukraine.
And thats all folks!.
Russia has not attacked anyone else and dont have the ability to invade Europe.
Meanwhile in the last decade the yanks run coups in 3 and bomb the shit out of 7 countries! And they were not neighbours with large U.S. Populations.
Then we are told to be scared of Russians?, this is outrageous.
Cloggie on Tue, 14th Mar 2017 8:08 am
My bad, I should have smelled this in 2 minutes, Zeihan is a member from the warmongering Zionist Stratfor club:
https://www.stratfor.com/weekly/new-era
…run by the infamous George Friedman.
Zeihan also appears in Wikileaks:
https://wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/51/513428_re-web-alert-stratfor-corp-site-.html
…revealing the links between Stratfor and the US MIC:
They reveal the inner workings of a company that fronts as an intelligence publisher, but provides confidential intelligence services to large corporations, such as Bhopal’s Dow Chemical Co., Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon and government agencies, including the US Department of Homeland Security, the US Marines and the US Defence Intelligence Agency. The emails show Stratfor’s web of informers, pay-off structure, payment laundering techniques and psychological methods.
Zeihan represents the swamp of warmongers that needs to be drained.
@Cloud9 – Russia is going to be the next partner of Europe after the end of the American Empire. But remember that there is still considerable interest in Europe to bring at least a chunk of European-America into the safety of a global European culture circle.
makati1 on Tue, 14th Mar 2017 8:10 am
What a Western spin (propaganda) bullshit article!
If China’s oil is cut off, the country doing so will be nuked. Guess who?
Cloggie on Tue, 14th Mar 2017 8:27 am
These are the folks that have the US in an iron grip. Study his arrogance:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=du7jG1aDkdM
Calls the US the most secure area on the planet.
Fact check: no it is not anymore if you import the third world, turning the “melting pot” into a “pressure cooker”.
At 1:27 calls a potential Trump take over a “disaster”.
That just happened, Zeihan [snicker].
The chaps comes at $15,000 to let him talk you into a war of his interest.
malahmadi on Tue, 14th Mar 2017 8:31 am
One of the lies mentioned is that ISIS is killing Persians and pro-Persians. Check carefully what happened in Syria where ISIS has been attacking all innocent people and the free army and where coordinating with Assad regime and his Iranian allies.
ISIS attacked many countries such Kuwait, Saudi, Turkey, Egypt, Libya, and Bahrain but have NEVER attacked IRAN????
dissident on Tue, 14th Mar 2017 8:37 am
Russia does not need failed states like Banderastan (formerly known as Ukraine) to take care of. Let the EU pay for what it helped the USA accomplish via the coup in Kiev in February of 2014.
Belarus is run by a dictator and has the potential to be another failed state riven with internal ethnic strife just like Banderastan once the coercion keeping it peaceful is gone. Yeah, Russia needs it bad, like a hole in the head.
BTW, Donetsk and Lugansk Oblasts that are the focus of Kiev’s punitive military operation were a gift from Lenin of ethnic Russian lands to the newly concocted state of Ukraine after the 1917 revolution. The locals were never consulted. Khurschev gifted Crimea to Ukraine as well but without Sevastopol which remained part of the Russian constituent republic of the USSR. Yet somehow it ended up being “owned” by Ukraine in 1991 without any legal transfer. Anyway, the ICJ at the Hague with its ruling on Kosovo has established that self-determination trumps territorial integrity.
Cloggie on Tue, 14th Mar 2017 8:45 am
ISIS is a club that fooled the Americans into thinking that they would topple Assad for them, provided the Americans gave them money, which they did. Next they used these weapons to indeed to attempt to topple Assad, but instead of creating a secular state, they turned conquered territory into an Islamic fundamentalist Caliphate. And KSA and Turkey loved what ISIS was doing and quietly supported ISIS where they could, like in buying oil from ISIS.
Meanwhile the Turks are gradually turning away from the West and are trying to connect to KSA, with whom they have a strategic partnership and simultaneously flirt with SCO.
Every Turk knows what Endorgan wants: restoration of the Ottoman Empire. And every Sunny will cooperate with that endeavor, perhaps even the Kurds, provided they get autonomy within that Ottoman empire.
It is true that ISIS and Turkey have zero interest in a conflict with Iran. And when KSA can hide behind the Turkish protector, KSA is also no longer interested in a conflict with Iran.
#PoorIsrael
Cloggie on Tue, 14th Mar 2017 8:49 am
@dissident – both Crimea and Donbass are now de facto part of Russia. TheSaker reported that Kiev meanwhile is using its army as a border guard to seal off Donbass. Apparently Kiev has accepted the loss of Donbass. In a decade or so, Donbass will be incorporated into Russia.
the ICJ at the Hague with its ruling on Kosovo has established that self-determination trumps territorial integrity.
Very good observation. Not that the West takes its own rulings seriously, but they are vulnerable at this point indeed.
Turning_Point on Tue, 14th Mar 2017 9:27 am
I agree with TheNationalist. Crimea is now part of Russia Cloggie, not Donbass. Donbass is devastated. I don’t think Russia wants it. All Russia wants is strategic depth. They want protection from potential invasion. They were historically invaded several times from the West and lost tens of millions of people in the process. But I don’t think that means they want to take over basket case regions or regions with extremely hostile populations. Donbass would not be hostile but West Ukraine would force them into a guerrilla war they could never win without using tactical nukes.
Russia’s on defense, we’re on offense through NATO. If we stop pushing their buttons, then the Russians would stop pushing back.
Cloggie on Tue, 14th Mar 2017 9:48 am
I agree with TheNationalist. Crimea is now part of Russia Cloggie, not Donbass. Donbass is devastated. I don’t think Russia wants it.
http://thesaker.is/the-donbass-is-breaking-away-from-an-agonizing-ukraine/
TheNationalist on Tue, 14th Mar 2017 10:04 am
What is Malahmadi on about? Shiites not being attacked by Wahabi Islamo fascists?
Must of been hiding under a rock, they have been one of the main targets along with any remaining Christians, Kurds or Alawites in the self proclaimed Islamic State.
This comment almost sounds like that of an israeli propaganda troll.
We all know that it is Israel and not Iran that has mysteriously avoided attack by the wahabists in all this.
penury on Tue, 14th Mar 2017 10:11 am
Just another “please buy my book.
You can find it in the fiction section at “Amazon”
Cloggie on Tue, 14th Mar 2017 10:17 am
TheNationalist has a point in that ISIS fought Iranians who were fighting in Syria to support Assad.
But it is also important to note that now that Iraq has been largely segregated into ethnic-religious factions, there is not that much potential for Sunny-Shia friction, other than in contested areas in Yemen and Syria.
I never heard of ISIS attacks against Iran.
TheNationalist on Tue, 14th Mar 2017 10:41 am
The main reason Iran hasn’t suffered from large scale wahabist attacks is because they have a very effective military and police state security aparatus. They are overwhelmingly a Shiite country aswell with no multi culti pressure from crackpots to everchange that.
Iran it seems has set up a good defence for this as they have already been the victim of CIA coups and western backed invasion attempts from sunni states in the past.
They can spot a wahabist at 50 paces it seems and unlike Europe ,who also spot them but can’t stop them coming in yet, they are not powerless to kick them back on the plane whence they came!
tita on Tue, 14th Mar 2017 11:00 am
Analysis of the world using american thinking… Doesn’t work.
And the biggest flaw in his reasoning is to assume that the USA can reach energy independance (and economic independance) within two years (thanks to shale). It’s not happening, and won’t happen. The links between US economy and the world economy are tight.
The second flaw is to believe that Belarus would welcome a russian integration. Apparently, this is the case… Their president-dictator is more unpopular than ever, and their economy is suffocating. But the country is so closed that we don’t really know what the population would choose. Something is bound to happen soon.
BobInget on Tue, 14th Mar 2017 1:17 pm
North Korea threatens US warships if they enter N.K. waters.
This is not a drill.
Will this American President reply by offering to talk or fight? I’m guessing the latter.
Since P. DJT fired most State Dept. Staff there’s no chance of talk. President Trump needs this distraction in the worst way. The first crisis not of his own making.
Kimmy signed his death warrant going up against the world’s second most unstable leader.
For folks living in LA, SF, Portland or Seattle, relax, we have anti missile missiles proven 20% accurate. No need to move to Australia or New Zealand, it’s a bit late anyway.
Seriously, if NK manages to sink one of our Nuclear carriers, or even tries…..
DJT will prove his manhood by killing every poor soul
in NK.
God, I miss Obama.
At this point, unless Russia and China step in, we will see peak people. Correction, survivors will see.
rockman on Tue, 14th Mar 2017 1:29 pm
Glad to see so many took the time to critique the rest of this crap. Fortunately he hit so many important aspects so ignorantly in just his first response I could stop reading then. Such as:
“If you put the embargo back in place, you’ve got a functional ceiling on how high the price can be domestically.” Obviously if someone here doesn’t already accept there has never been a ban on exporting US oil there’s no point in proving it for the umptenth time here. The only “functional ceiling how high” the price of domestic oil can go is price controls set by the federal govt. And the obvious disaster of such an effort isn’t obvious to someone they are certainly wasting their time on this site.
BobInget on Tue, 14th Mar 2017 2:07 pm
Will US go to war? (forgetting four other wars)
http://www.ibtimes.com/will-us-go-war-american-ships-prepare-north-korean-missile-launches-japan-south-korea-2507951
It’s almost comical. A quite likely beginning of another Asian war gets only slight press.
Remember what was being said about DJT.
“Don’t take him seriously”
See where that got us.
cottager on Tue, 14th Mar 2017 4:21 pm
Fantasy. Untill now mother russia never ever openly attacked US allies, especially NATO members. When Reagan decided to spend a little more on weapons mother of mother russia USSR simply dissolved.
cottager on Tue, 14th Mar 2017 4:25 pm
Putin is powerful? Well, her Fuhrer also was. Where is he now?
Hello on Tue, 14th Mar 2017 4:30 pm
It’s Führer. Not Fuhrer. Or if you can’t produce ü you write Fuehrer as an acceptable workaround.
GregT on Tue, 14th Mar 2017 4:30 pm
“Well, her Fuhrer also was. Where is he now?”
In the White house.
dissident on Tue, 14th Mar 2017 4:58 pm
Big bad Mother Russia did 80% of the work putting der Fuehrer and his invasion in the ground. But the typical, brainwashed NATO drone thinks America won WWII. No, it won the war with Japan. The 11 month dash to Berlin at the end of WWII came when it was clear to everyone with a functional IQ that the Nazi Reich had lost the war.
The cottager is one likely one of the Baltic chihuahuas or a Banderatard given his rabid hate for Russia. His ancestors missed out badly when Hitler lost the war. Now they prance around claiming they were fighting Hitler all along.
Davy on Tue, 14th Mar 2017 5:07 pm
Dissident if Russia had been a competent force to begin with maybe far less than 60MIL would have died in WWII. Russia could have stopped Hitler in the beginning then we would have had a different history. Instead Stalin and his leadership were a disaster and they allowed a disaster that was Hitler to drive them to the brink.
The US did a lot in that war so quit belittling them. I agree Russia made the biggest sacrifice in men but that is also a sad commentary on a nation that wasted people with little concern. It shows just how bad communist Russia was and nothing to brag about.
cottager on Tue, 14th Mar 2017 5:14 pm
Big fat pro-russian trollss lurking around, ready to put any discussion to abuses.
cottager on Tue, 14th Mar 2017 5:22 pm
The big mistake of Der Fuhrer – German had little friends, especially in Eastern Europe. Der Putin making the same mistake. The only “friend”, Mr. Lukashenko is actually afraid of russian invasion, and after Crimea annexation preparing for fight. The same mistake…
Truth Has A Liberal Bias on Tue, 14th Mar 2017 7:07 pm
The Brits couldn’t roll back their own foreskin. Russia will kick their ass in about 3 nano seconds.
Nony on Tue, 14th Mar 2017 9:00 pm
$50 is not happening unless you have US production in excess of 16 MM bpd (along with the import restrictions). I really wonder if the US can do that much production at $50 price. Plus even if they can, it wouldn’t take much excess to drive overall world price to $50. Look where we are now…
GregT on Tue, 14th Mar 2017 10:12 pm
“Look where we are now…”
Yes, just look:
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=RWTC&f=D
Prices still over twice what they were for the 18 years (at least) prior to the run up beginning at the end of ’04, when conventional oil peaked. Just like Hubbert predicted that it would. Since then the US government alone, has racked up over $12 TRILLION in unrepayble debt.
Bloomer on Wed, 15th Mar 2017 12:04 am
The Nationist: “Crimea was always a Russian military base with a majority Russian population. Eastern Ukraine is full of ethnic Russian minority groups that disagreed with the coup in West Ukraine”.
I couldn’t of written it better. We are being manipulated by U.S propaganda into believing that Russia is a threat. This to justify the trillions of dollars spent to keep the military complex afloat.
The destruction of the Middle East by the U.S.and its Western allies are war crimes. There was no justification. We didn’t bring the people there freedom, we brought them death. There is blood on our hands.
GregT on Wed, 15th Mar 2017 12:09 am
Very good comment Bloomer. Could not agree more.
GregT on Wed, 15th Mar 2017 12:22 am
“Anyway, the ICJ at the Hague with its ruling on Kosovo has established that self-determination trumps territorial integrity.”
As it should.
Anonymous on Wed, 15th Mar 2017 3:01 am
The only reason the ICJ ruled that way, was because that was outcome the uS desired at the time. When it came to Russia and Crimea, it suddenly became ‘annexation’, and a crime against humanity, to listen to the uS and its puppets in the ICJ, amoung others. The ICJ will of course, always come to the moral aid of those seeking self-determination, but it helps a lot if you dont happened to be aligned with Russia, or China, Iran, etc.
IoW, the ICJ will assigns far less value(ok none really), to the right to self-determination of Crimeans and ethnic Russians under constant attack by washungdum and their inept puppets in Kiev.
Cloggie on Wed, 15th Mar 2017 4:23 am
The only reason the ICJ ruled that way, was because that was outcome the uS desired at the time. When it came to Russia and Crimea, it suddenly became ‘annexation’
1933-1939 Rheinland, Saar, Memel, Austria, Sudetenland and Danzig, same story. They all wanted back to Germany (self-determination). But US propaganda changed it in “annexation”.
Instead the Nuremberg story was “Germany wanted to conquer the world” (the last thing hard-core nationalists like the Germans wanted was to “dilute” their country with conquered foreigners).
Spoiler: in reality the US and USSR wanted to conquer the world:
http://tinyurl.com/gtd63ko
https://i.ytimg.com/vi/YRhbtzCktY0/maxresdefault.jpg
Nuremberg: an American, Soviet and British colored approached the American, Soviet and British judges and testified: “Gertrud wanted to rape us, so we raped here back, honest”.
Oh boy, do we have a lot of material to make really exiting movies about 1917-1946, after the end of the American Era, originating from Greater Europe, replacing kosher-run Hollywood.
joe on Wed, 15th Mar 2017 4:45 am
One of the interesting things about Brexit and the rise of so called right wing nationalism is its funding. The EU could be the biggest threat to both China and the US and so it won’t be allowed to survive. Americans and US-ophiles have driven this anti EU fear driven by the false flag threat of Islam (Islams threat to Europe is real and unstoppable at this point), the narrative is clear, that the EU is dishonest, disorganised selfish and anti-white Chrisitan male. So the real question is this, are the wealthy and powerful just playing politics with the people and resources of Eurasia trying to keep a grip on the spigots and roads that flow into the the so called developed areas of Europe and Asia. So does it really matter what happens to Poland, Estonia etc when the power is energy and energy is coming from tight oil? IMHO yes because the wealthy has staked western powers reputations on not just containing Russia but squashing it out of existence, hoping to weaken it and praying for some new Yelsin or a series of them to show the Rus that they are no longer a nation and make them beg to join with Europe.
Such a policy will end with revolution and in a country with thousands of nukes its dangerous. Also the article itself is very speculative and lacking in serious analysis. As an aside we have to imagine that the entire point is that the Orwellian view is on show here, that the US is creating Airstrip One, that Islam is the new ‘Goldstein’ and the the new ‘O Brien’ is the CIA acting on behalf of an elite who simply wish to consume power and resources through the control of consumers in the developed areas of the earth. France votes soon, Holland votes today, then Germany, nobody knows the outcome, probobly stalemate, this is intentional, all of western political society is in stalemate and incapable of doing anything. One could suggest that outside influences are seeking to discredit democracy by tying it up in politcal knots but that would be paranoid, no its more likely that democracy is reaching an inflection point and that society is heading for a new departure, just as monarchism collapsed and gave way to the the 2 great types of democracy (western and communist), so democracy might be about wain in the face of the forces of history and the economic/technological influences and trends.
Cloggie on Wed, 15th Mar 2017 5:31 am
One of the interesting things about Brexit and the rise of so called right wing nationalism is its funding.
There is no funding of European populism, other than a few million easy loans from Moscow to FN (and perhaps AfD?).
The EU could be the biggest threat to both China and the US and so it won’t be allowed to survive.
Insane remark. The US (until November 2016) does indeed try to keep the Euro-bitch for itself and keep it separate from the rest of Eurasia, where China tries to lure Europe into this New Silk Road and Asian Development Bank scheme, with some success.
There is no US-Chinese scheme to keep Europe down, only in your feverish British continental Europe-hating mind. China is preparing itself for living up to the US challenge and the fight for the dominance over the South-China sea will be the first fight. China won the first battle now that Duterte is changing camps.
Americans and US-ophiles have driven this anti EU fear driven by the false flag threat of Islam (Islams threat to Europe is real and unstoppable at this point)
Trump has essentially said that Europe is free to do as it pleases and that she can escape from NATO. It is a nice way of saying “run away from the US empire while you still can as long as I am in charge”. Furthermore, there is nothing “unstoppable” about Islam in Europe, which causes the meteoric rise of European populists, which will only grow with shifting demographic balances. Why don’t you worry about your own UK? London is the worst city in the Western world when it comes to Islamic conquest. Besides, Turkey is becoming more hostile to Europe with every passing day, which will force Europe to swap Turkey for Russia. We need to get our oil from somewhere and the pipelines are already in place. And then there is the Baltic.
IMHO yes because the wealthy has staked western powers reputations on not just containing Russia but squashing it out of existence, hoping to weaken it and praying for some new Yelsin or a series of them to show the Rus that they are no longer a nation and make them beg to join with Europe.
That’s what Anglos like you are hoping for: a begging Russia to become a junior member of Europe and the West. Instead Russia will become a senior member of Europe, because the rising threat of both Islam and China. And America will fall apart, like eventually all multi-racial constructs. Anglosphere exit.
Also the article itself is very speculative and lacking in serious analysis.
The article is empty Zionist NWO bluster and bluff.
France votes soon, Holland votes today, then Germany, nobody knows the outcome, probobly stalemate
The ballot box will indeed change nothing in the short term. I am going out soon and vote for Wilders, although I oppose almost everything he stands for, apart from his anti-immigration stance, the only reason I vote for him.
In France we see a clear attempt underway by the French deep state to sabotage Putin buddy Fillon and this well-timed “corruption probe” and at the same time all European media promote this out of the blue Macron “socialist” candidate, a protege of the Rothschild’s:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emmanuel_Macron
For French readers here the details of “Operation Kill Fillon”:
http://www.gfaye.com/affaire-fillon-le-tueur-sappelle-macron/
But the growth of the populist movement means that the European population is organizing resistance against its own planned demise, planned for decades by the kosher US deep state and their post-1945 European vassals. Non-PC Eastern Europe and Russia will make the difference. And China won’t oppose either.
2 great types of democracy (western and communist)
You are insane.
Davy on Wed, 15th Mar 2017 5:44 am
“The EU could be the biggest threat to both China and the US and so it won’t be allowed to survive.”
What a crock of shit Joe. What is happening is every nation is trying to get an edge in a zero sum world. Every nation wants its cake and eat it. The EU is a threat to itself because it is unworkable and will likely fail. It will likely fail because of its undeliverable needs in decline and the fact globalism is in decline. Europe cannot continue to live as it does with such a high standard of living on debt. All Europe is today is debt. The same is true of China and the US. This is about debt and the fact it is bad debt. It is not about Europe being a threat to the world order. It is about a world order of competitive cooperation decaying from less affluence. It is simple really. When growth was strong governments came together in a common pursuit of prosperity. Now that we are in decline we are turning inward and pointing fingers.
Davy on Wed, 15th Mar 2017 6:09 am
“Goodbye Old EU, Hello New Multi-Speed Europe”
http://tinyurl.com/jhj7ud6
“The idea presupposes breaches in the basics of European integration, such as the single market, or the four freedoms of movement, capital, goods and services. In a nutshell, it all boils down to EU integration in subgroups, which is already de facto happening.”
“Multi-speed Europe would create rival blocs and perpetuate divisions, with France and Germany setting the rules with others left to catch-up. Countries outside the core will be marginalized being kept outside of the decision making process. The EU is to become a loose alliance, a patchwork of blocs within blocks.”
“Calling a spade a spade, the EU is a bloc on the verge of destruction. The process of disintegration has started and it is unstoppable. A multi-speed Europe is merely recognition of the reality. This is the time to say goodbye to the EU we once knew. A patchwork of clubs is emerging instead to change the European political landscape once and for all.”
Cloggie on Wed, 15th Mar 2017 6:32 am
Davy, you should always check your sources before promoting it as truth:
The Strategic Culture Foundation is an independent anti-Zionist Russian think tank.
http://en.metapedia.org/wiki/Strategic_Culture_Foundation
It is obvious they don’t mind seeing the EU go, that US vassal institution.
For the record, I support morphing the EU into the next level:
EGKS – 1952
EEC – 1958
EC – 1973
EU – 1993
Continental Confederation – 202x (“Paris-Berlin-Moscow”)
I don’t know your source, but I would not be surprised if they support Paris-Berlin-Moscow too, as that is the explicit goal of Vladimir Putin.
Davy on Wed, 15th Mar 2017 7:06 am
Clog, wade through the swamp and find information where it is not where you want it to be. I don’t have leanings other than an agenda of exploring decline on all levels. I look for information from all sides. BTW, I did look into who they are and what their mission is. I do this because you and your buddy Ape man always comment on reference sources. You on the other hand behave like makati who always wants sanctioned news sources per your agenda or it is called propaganda and fake.
What this article says is spot on with the EU. Bend over and take the hurt. Your idea of a grand Euro Empire replacing the failing US one and a bulwark against a new Asia is a fantasy. We are all falling apart together. Get a grip and see the truth. Europe is a failed union of failing states. Easy to see. It is in economic decline beset with debt and slow growth. Its future is dim because of global decline and its main export driver, Germany, is set to face headwinds. The rest of Europe is mired in a continuous recession and high unemployment. Social turmoil is roiling the place with immigration issues and nationalistic undertones. Nothing much good going on in Europe. All you got to crow about is alternative energy transformation and we all know that is a dead end beyond a point. An energy transition will likely never happen. That is a fool’s dream
joe on Wed, 15th Mar 2017 7:18 am
Name calling is the refuge of those without their own thoughts. Name calling and links, the Cloggie methodology. But hey. Lets play the game.
http://www.vox.com/world/2017/3/8/14854702/geert-wilders-us-trump-horowitz
Wilders funded by US right wing activism.
Heres another dude to ponder. Arron Banks, ukip and seemingly anti everything guy responsible for brexit, right?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arron_Banks
Except its the Tories in the UK smashing a path to Brexit via both Labour (the ex socialist party now a front for anti semites and Islamophiles) and the House of Lords. So whats up, has to be somthing about America wishing to rule the earth, or at least controlling it. Sorry to make you cry even more but the US is in Anglosphere, Trump put Churchill back in the oval office. Your muslim anti semitic EU is doomed, be prepared to live at the while of the mongol hoardes of Russia.
Cloggie on Wed, 15th Mar 2017 7:52 am
Name calling is the refuge of those without their own thoughts. Name calling and links, the Cloggie methodology.
Anybody who promotes Stalin’s USSR as a “great democracy”, as you do, is an idiot. But there is of course a reason why you want to upgrade Stalinism… because he was your buddy to subjugate continental Europe:
http://www.nationalvanguard.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/churchill-and-stalin1.jpg
Regarding the funding of Wilders… I am aware that he is funded by the wrong sources like US neocons. But by very anti-Islamic neocons, who are afraid that Europe might fall in the hands of Islam, where it should remain in the hands of Judaism.
Your muslim anti semitic EU is doomed, be prepared to live at the while of the mongol hoardes of Russia.
There is no anti-semitic Europe (not yet), but why don’t you have a look at this graph:
http://tinyurl.com/hzchy59
Over the last 6 centuries it became clear that like every human individual, a geopolitical top dog has about a century to be a top dog, after which death invariably follows.
We had 1 century Britain (19th)
We had 1 century USA (20th)
Britain wanted a “New British Century” and organized WW1 to achieve that aim and failed.
The US wanted a “New American Century” as well and organized 9/11 and the Iraq war and failed as well. The PNAC website is no longer available.lol
And no, the graph is wrong in projecting that the 21st century is going to be a UN century. The UN is merely an extension of the US.
I believe in a multi-polar world and that Europe, together with Russia and parts of North-America, will again be the #1 address, but this time as united culture circle.
http://www.counter-currents.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/BwnCM9OCYAAJfu9-1-e1449202145292.png
Who else?
Heartland USA has revealed its true colors last Autumn and will play along.
And nobody will ask Britain any questions.
dissident on Wed, 15th Mar 2017 8:48 am
@Cloggie
Stalin wasn’t Trotsky. You claim the USSR wanted to rule the world. Not after Trotsky and the rest of the Bloshie zealots lost out in the power struggle for the Kremlin. “Communism in one country” was Stalin’s dogma. At the same time the Nazis were rabid colonialists with an obvious territorial expansion plan all the way to the Urals. You make it sound like the USSR invaded Germany and not the other way around. Hitler was an epic idiot for acting just like the the British and the Americans wanted, turning all of Germany’s efforts into a futile war to take over the USSR and other chunks of Europe. He was afflicted with the typical racist EU-tard chauvinism about Russia crumbling with a slight push since it is rotten to the core. Yeah, right, that’s why every time it is pushed, the pusher gets his a** handed back to him on a plate.
Cloggie on Wed, 15th Mar 2017 9:53 am
Stalin wasn’t Trotsky. You claim the USSR wanted to rule the world. Not after Trotsky and the rest of the Bloshie zealots lost out in the power struggle for the Kremlin. “Communism in one country” was Stalin’s dogma.
That’s officially true. But it is also true that Stalin prepared during the entire thirties to extend communism over entire Europe. There is only one reason why Germany attacked the USSR on June 22, 1941: to preempt a Soviet attack planned for July 10.
At the same time the Nazis were rabid colonialists with an obvious territorial expansion plan all the way to the Urals.
That’s the Nuremberg lie. It is true that the Austrian openly speculated about Lebensraum in the East (Ukraine) during the twenties, after the British murdered one million Germans with their 1918-1919 food blockade, the truth is that after 1933 he never used the word Lebensraum again, afraid as he was of the Soviet might. Barbarossa was the only way out for Germany and an attempt to reach Moscow and dissolve the “Evil Empire” and force the British to peace.
Why don’t you read Molotov Remembers: Inside Kremlin Politics. Conversations with Felix Chuev”
“On the other hand, there was nothing left for Hitler to do but attack us. He would never have finished his war with England – you just try to finish a war with England!”
Straight from the horses mouth. Molotov exactly understood why Hitler attacked and it had nothing to do with that silly Lebensraum.
Barbarossa was an act of desperation. A few weeks before the Germans had made another desperate attempt to at least make peace with the British with this desperate Hess flight. But Churchill, Roosevelt and Stalin were in bed since 1934 in their mutual aim to destroy Europe. And afterwards you set up this stinking war tribunals trial to cover up the truth.
And then there was the internet.ROFL.
Hitler was an epic idiot for acting just like the the British and the Americans wanted, turning all of Germany’s efforts into a futile war to take over the USSR and other chunks of Europe.
Complete utter lies. In 1939 Hitler only wanted his stupid Danzig back. The conflict with the Poles escalated, thanks to vile kosher Americans via their Churchill tool, who did everything they could to get the war started in Europe, by first pressuring the British and French into the war guarantee and next encourage the Poles to do what they wanted, including persecuting the Germans forced to live in Versailles-Poland with the aim to ethnically cleans them, which is what they finally did in 1945. The prevention of this ethnic cleansing operation was the real reason the Germans invaded Poland. That brought them the war with the British and French. The very fact that NOTHING happened for 8 months is clear proof that neither the Chamberlain-British, nor the French, nor the Germans were interested in war, but were suckered into it, thanks to US Jews, Churchill and the hot-headed Poles. Next it was Churchill who began to exercise pressure on Norway and the Benelux states to abandon neutrality, which is what they did, forcing the Germans to intervene. By April 1940 the Germans understood that the British and French would proceed with war. So they invaded France, quickly defeated the Frogs and offered peace terms, beneficial for all. But Churchill, who meanwhile was PM was not interested in peace and wanted nothing but the complete destruction of Germany on order for US Jews.
http://nationalvanguard.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/The-Forrestal-Diaries-excerpt.jpg
typical racist EU-tard chauvinism about Russia
The British aren’t racist for sure. That’s why London is owned by the Muslims now.LOL Ah well, Islam will keep the British from plotting the destruction of continental Europe, where Russia and the European Right are flirting and preparing for the follow-up for US uni-polarity.
Cloggie on Wed, 15th Mar 2017 10:23 am
Tadaam!!!
https://postimg.org/image/g2e0nv1zj/
Mijn stembiljet: lijst 3
GregT on Wed, 15th Mar 2017 11:57 am
Blond ist das neue braun.
https://tinyurl.com/jj9u6ee
In reality however, at least two of the above are brunettes, and at least one wears blue contact lenses.
https://deverwardeman.files.wordpress.com/2010/03/geertwilders.jpg
One of the sheep for sure, is wearing wolf’s clothing.