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Page added on February 11, 2015
How Russia Plans To Retaliate For The Saudi-Driven Collapse In Oil`
A week ago we explained that yet another conspiracy theory, one involving virtually every geopolitical hotzone, from Saudi Arabia, to Russia, the United States, Qatar, Syria, ISIS, and Ukraine, has become fact when our speculation from last September, namely that the plunge in oil was an choreographed move between the US and the Saudis (even if Kerry realized – we hope – that it meant a recession for the US energy producing states and a collapse in the only vibrant US industry of the past decade: shale), one seeking to dislodge Russian control over the Syrian government and to facilitate the passage of a Qatar pipeline under Syrian territory.
This is what the NYT said: “Saudi Arabia has been trying to pressure President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia to abandon his support for President Bashar al-Assad of Syria, using its dominance of the global oil markets at a time when the Russian government is reeling from the effects of plummeting oil prices.”
The NYT added:
Saudi Arabia and Russia have had numerous discussions over the past several months that have yet to produce a significant breakthrough, according to American and Saudi officials. It is unclear how explicitly Saudi officials have linked oil to the issue of Syria during the talks, but Saudi officials say — and they have told the United States — that they think they have some leverage over Mr. Putin because of their ability to reduce the supply of oil and possibly drive up prices.
That’s the quo. As for the quid, it is as we predicted:
Any weakening of Russian support for Mr. Assad could be one of the first signs that the recent tumult in the oil market is having an impact on global statecraft. Saudi officials have said publicly that the price of oil reflects only global supply and demand, and they have insisted that Saudi Arabia will not let geopolitics drive its economic agenda. But they believe that there could be ancillary diplomatic benefits to the country’s current strategy of allowing oil prices to stay low — including a chance to negotiate an exit for Mr. Assad.
“Russia has been one of the Syrian president’s most steadfast supporters, selling military equipment to the government for years to bolster Mr. Assad’s forces in their battle against rebel groups, including the Islamic State, and supplying everything from spare parts and specialty fuels to sniper training and helicopter maintenance.”
To be sure, the Chairman of the Russian State Duma International Committee Alexei Pushkov promptly rejected all the NYT allegations, writing on his Twitter account:
“There were no negotiations with the Saudis to decrease oil production
in exchange for Moscow’s refusal to support Assad. Hoax.”
… but that was to be expected – after all it is not as if the two powers are on friendly terms, plus the NYT leak was meant to push the fulcrum of leverage away from Russia. What is certain, however, is that Putin couldn’t care less about his “friend” Assad, but he cares very much about Gazprom preserving its near-monopolistic dominance as marginal energy provider to Europe of last resort, one which gives Russia as much leverage over the bulk of Europe as the ECB’s printing press, if not much more: Draghi’s outside money only reaches about 1% of the population; Gazprom’s heat reaches everyone.
However, what is key in the above chain is that while the Saudis (and Qataris) have been orchestrating events in the middle east, using the US as a diplomatic patsy, one which has provided a convenient strawman over the past year in the form of ISIS, or the same anti-Assad jihadist rebels that the same US was arming actively as recently as late 2013, the US has been carefully managing the second front in the war of European energy dominance, that involving Ukraine.
It is not secret that the chain of events that have transpired in Kiev over the past year, starting with the coup of then president Yanukovich and the preceding “Euromaidan” violence were to a great extent orchestrated by the US as the infamous “Fuck the EU” recording revealed. Incidentally, “fucking the EU” is precisely what the US state department did, because the subsequent chain of events including economic sanctions and diplomatic pressure on Russia by the White House backfired, led to a plunge in European trade with Russia and was directly responsible for Europe’s triple-dip recession of 2014. Well, it helped one group of people: the 0.1% who benefit from the subsequently start of Europe’s own QE, whose proximal catalyst was none other than the western “isolation” of Russia.
But while so far the Ukraine gambit has backfired on the west – not completely: after all, one or more western buyers did manage to “acquire” all of Ukraine’s dozens of tons of gold at firesale, or lower, prices – the Saudi escalation, which is about to lead to one or more state level recessions in US oil producing regions and then, to a major economic deterioration at the national level, has indeed managed to hurt Putin far more than any trivial developments involving Ukraine (which just so happens is now ex-Crimea thanks to Victoria Nuland’s strategic brilliance).
As such, while Putin may be laughing about Obama’s impotence to creat any impact on the foreign arena, and is generally oblivious to what the US lame duck president does, the same can not be said of Saudi Arabia, which is very clearly involved in the global proxy war which now stretches to several continents and many countries, and whose ultimate goal is a traditional one: energy.
And since it is a proxy war, as the US demonstrated when it involved Ukraine in what is really a fight over the future of European energy dependence (be it on Russia or Qatar), Russia has every right to contemplate how it may retaliate to any additional US escalation in Urkaine. In a proxy fashion.
Which is why we were rather shocked to read what the Moscow Times wrote in an article today, in which it said that “U.S. provision of military aid to Ukraine would be seen by Moscow as a declaration of war and spark a global escalation of Ukraine’s separatist conflict, Russian defense analysts said. With Russia-backed rebels in eastern Ukraine seizing new territory from the Ukrainian army, voices in Washington are demanding that Kiev be given defensive weapons and hardware — including lethal equipment — to hold the line.”
But if such aid were sent, “Russia would reasonably consider the U.S. to be a direct participant in the conflict,” said Evgeny Buzhinsky, a military expert at the Moscow-based PIR Center.
That is not the shocking part: in fact, it has been largely anticipated for a long time. What is, however, is the following stark admission that in the next round of retaliatory escalations, sparks will fly. Literall:
Russian defense analysts polled by The Moscow Times said unanimously that U.S. arms transfers to Ukraine would be interpreted in Moscow as a declaration of open proxy war with Russia and inevitably lead to escalation of the conflict.
“It would become tit-for-tat,” said Maxim Shepovalenko, an analyst at the Moscow-based Center for the Analysis of Strategy and Technology (CAST).
“Moscow will not just sit by calmly and see what happens, it will counteract,” he said.
As for the target? Well, one could say they saw it coming from a desert away:
The Russian counterstrike could take the conflict far beyond Ukraine, according to the source on the Defense Ministry’s public advisory board.
Pointing to one possible avenue of asymmetrical retaliation, the source said Moscow could give in to long-standing Chinese requests for sensitive defense technologies that would aid in its development of high-tech weapons capable of doing serious damage to U.S. naval forces in the Asia-Pacific. Moscow has so far declined China’s requests on “politically correct pretenses,” the source said.
The punchline:
“That’s just one example. We can also encourage Iran, or even back Iran in a fight — a military operation — with Saudi Arabia, so then the prices for oil will skyrocket,” the source said, explaining that these were just two possible responses.
Simple and elegant: if the US does everything in its power to deflect attention from the ongoing conflict for the control of Syria by backing a proxy civil war in Ukraine merely meant to keep Moscow off guard, a civil war that Ukraine and the west are now perilously close to losing, Russia will retaliate, but not in Kiev – that’s irrelevant. It will do so where the pain to the west would be greatest: in Saudi Arabia, the place that is the true ground zero of all Russian hurt in the past 6 months, ever since oil started tumbling from $100, and continued following the historic collapse of OPEC on Thanksgiving Day 2014, where Saudi Arabia unilaterally decided to crush the price of oil indefinitely, or until Putin comes crawling, and begging for a Saudi oil supply halt, in exchange for al-Assad’s head on a silver platter.
Well, that may happen… or if the US does arm Ukraine, Russia may just do everything in its power to take the proxy war away from Ukraine, and right into the hornets’ nest of the House of Saud itself.
Taking all this into account, we would like to add to our oil-buying catalyst.
For those who want to know when to buy oil, the answer is simple: just after (or ideally before) Putin announces he will no longer support the Assad regime. If, that is, he ever does because that act will effectively destroy all leverage Putin may ever have over Europe, and in the process, also end – quite prematurely – his career. Until then, every single HFT-induced spike in oil is one to be ultimately faded, because as the past few months have shown, it is the Saudis who set the price, and they will not take no for an answer, even if it means crippling the entire US shale, and energy, industry in the process.
To this we will add: the moment Congress and/or Europe votes though a resolution to arm Ukraine with “lethal aid”, that may be the time to go all-in crude, on margin. Because after that what has until now been a global proxy war will become far less proxy in a very short period of time.
41 Comments on "How Russia Plans To Retaliate For The Saudi-Driven Collapse In Oil`"
Davy on Wed, 11th Feb 2015 6:24 am
I read ZH daily because there are few sites that offer so much alternative financial reporting. It is essential to pick through the alternative and the MSM to get a bearing on where things are heading. We know here there is a brick wall with the POD & ETP of oil. Then there is the financial system which is beyond description because it has turned into human fantasy and myth complete with all the nonscientific irrationalities of man. It comes down to confidence in the central banks at present. They are the only game in town at the level of finance and the economy.
The geo politics now are likewise as distorted and convoluted as to be fictional. There are so many agendist and conspiracy mongers on both sides as to distort the facts and truth into a Hollywood tabloid. We are in peak entropy and this is an example of entropic decay of the irrational and destructive. We humans dine on tabloid and fantasy. It must come from our myth based oral traditions pre-industrial man. There are so many conspiracy theories out there and so many agendist as to lose the truth and the facts in a battle of antagonists.
I am here to say the US government has turned criminal and this criminality is a danger to the world. Yet, we are only a higher order criminal among criminals. Russia and China are just bellow the US on the list. Really you can go into any country and find the rot of corruption, manipulation, and exploitation internal and external.
ZH is fully anti-American and for good reason. They are battling the western MSM at home and next door. I find many anti-Bric articles too so on balance they are not totally agendist. I respect sites that at least show some balance. There are plenty of articles describing how bad Russia and China are doing for example.
The problem with ZH is they love to sensationalize. The oil situation is a prime example. What ZH need to do is read Hill’s groups analysis then the other sub plots fall into place. Sure there is brinkmanship among the great powers. IMA Putin is among the best and his long term gamble may yet payoff. He is losing at the moment following Chavez economic policy he cannot afford very long. I will further mention his support of the murderous Assad regime is an example of depravity as bad as the US action in the Ukraine. Our anti-American agendist pass over this like it is nothing.
Makati1 on Wed, 11th Feb 2015 6:56 am
Putin knows he holds all the good cards in this game. Russia is not hurting financially and Europe is beginning to realize their blunder in supporting the takeover of Ukraine. They see a hot war on their door steps if they don’t step back and soon. Egypt is moving towards Russia, as is Greece. Both can do great damage to the EU and the Empire.
It is going to be an interesting year.
Davy on Wed, 11th Feb 2015 7:17 am
I will modify Mak’s agendist comment as a moderator of balance and fairness would.
Russia is in awful shape but has cards to play yet but time is running short. Europe is beginning to realize this conflict is bad for business. The EU is an economic and organizational mess and can ill afford a conflict with Russia. The Americans will push their advantage as long as they can with limits. The basics of Nato and the European alliance must not be compromised. Countries that are broke and failing are turning to Russia and Russia needs any friends it can find not that it has much to offer.
Dredd on Wed, 11th Feb 2015 7:52 am
“Don’t start any shit and there won’t be any shit.”
Plantagenet on Wed, 11th Feb 2015 8:46 am
The oil glut is driven by oversupply. YES the Saudis could voluntarily cut their production to boost oil prices. But so could Russia, the U.S., Nigeria, Canada etc etc. none of them are doing it
paulo1 on Wed, 11th Feb 2015 9:11 am
No one can afford to cut production, Plant. Even SA needs dinero to keep the masses quiet and those gold plated 747s flying.
bobinget on Wed, 11th Feb 2015 9:20 am
HRH is still carrying Royal’s Water.
Plantagenet must write 100 times:
“There is No Glut and Never Has Been”
As for whoever wrote this piece for Zero Hedge,
he/she has been reading my posts here on PO.Com
bobinget on Wed, 11th Feb 2015 9:34 am
Davy,
Your statement “America has turned criminal”
is a serious charge and flawed.
The US hasn’t recently adopted a foreign interventionist policy four years ago or ten or thirty or forty.
PHILIPPINES 1898-1910 (-?) Naval, troops Seized from Spain, killed 600,000 Filipinos
CUBA 1898-1902 (-?) Naval, troops Seized from Spain, still hold Navy base.
PUERTO RICO 1898 (-?) Naval, troops Seized from Spain, occupation continues.
GUAM 1898 (-?) Naval, troops Seized from Spain, still use as base.
MINNESOTA 1898 (-?) Troops Army battles Chippewa at Leech Lake.
NICARAGUA 1898 Troops Marines land at port of San Juan del Sur.
SAMOA 1899 (-?) Troops Battle over succession to throne.
NICARAGUA 1899 Troops Marines land at port of Bluefields.
IDAHO 1899-1901 Troops Army occupies Coeur d’Alene mining region.
OKLAHOMA 1901 Troops Army battles Creek Indian revolt.
PANAMA 1901-14 Naval, troops Broke off from Colombia 1903, annexed Canal Zone; Opened canal 1914.
HONDURAS 1903 Troops Marines intervene in revolution.
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC 1903-04 Troops U.S. interests protected in Revolution.
KOREA 1904-05 Troops Marines land in Russo-Japanese War.
CUBA 1906-09 Troops Marines land in democratic election.
NICARAGUA 1907 Troops “Dollar Diplomacy” protectorate set up.
HONDURAS 1907 Troops Marines land during war with Nicaragua
PANAMA 1908 Troops Marines intervene in election contest.
NICARAGUA 1910 Troops Marines land in Bluefields and Corinto.
HONDURAS 1911 Troops U.S. interests protected in civil war.
CHINA 1911-41 Naval, troops Continuous occupation with flare-ups.
CUBA 1912 Troops U.S. interests protected in civil war.
PANAMA 1912 Troops Marines land during heated election.
HONDURAS 1912 Troops Marines protect U.S. economic interests.
NICARAGUA 1912-33 Troops, bombing 10-year occupation, fought guerillas
MEXICO 1913 Naval Americans evacuated during revolution.
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC 1914 Naval Fight with rebels over Santo Domingo.
COLORADO 1914 Troops Breaking of miners’ strike by Army.
MEXICO 1914-18 Naval, troops Series of interventions against nationalists.
HAITI 1914-34 Troops, bombing 19-year occupation after revolts.
TEXAS 1915 Troops Federal soldiers crush “Plan of San Diego” Mexican-American rebellion
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC 1916-24 Troops 8-year Marine occupation.
CUBA 1917-33 Troops Military occupation, economic protectorate.
WORLD WAR I 1917-18 Naval, troops Ships sunk, fought Germany for 1 1/2 years.
RUSSIA 1918-22 Naval, troops Five landings to fight Bolsheviks
PANAMA 1918-20 Troops “Police duty” during unrest after elections.
HONDURAS 1919 Troops Marines land during election campaign.
YUGOSLAVIA 1919 Troops/Marines intervene for Italy against Serbs in Dalmatia.
GUATEMALA 1920 Troops 2-week intervention against unionists.
WEST VIRGINIA 1920-21 Troops, bombing Army intervenes against mineworkers.
TURKEY 1922 Troops Fought nationalists in Smyrna.
CHINA 1922-27 Naval, troops Deployment during nationalist revolt.
MEXICO
HONDURAS
1923
1924-25
Bombing
Troops
Airpower defends Calles from rebellion
Landed twice during election strife.
PANAMA 1925 Troops Marines suppress general strike.
CHINA 1927-34 Troops Marines stationed throughout the country.
EL SALVADOR 1932 Naval Warships send during Marti revolt.
WASHINGTON DC 1932 Troops Army stops WWI vet bonus protest.
WORLD WAR II 1941-45 Naval, troops, bombing, nuclear Hawaii bombed, fought Japan, Italy and Germay for 3 years; first nuclear war.
DETROIT 1943 Troops Army put down Black rebellion.
IRAN 1946 Nuclear threat Soviet troops told to leave north.
YUGOSLAVIA 1946 Nuclear threat, naval Response to shoot-down of US plane.
URUGUAY 1947 Nuclear threat Bombers deployed as show of strength.
GREECE 1947-49 Command operation U.S. directs extreme-right in civil war.
GERMANY 1948 Nuclear Threat Atomic-capable bombers guard Berlin Airlift.
CHINA 1948-49 Troops/Marines evacuate Americans before Communist victory.
PHILIPPINES 1948-54 Command operation CIA directs war against Huk Rebellion.
PUERTO RICO 1950 Command operation Independence rebellion crushed in Ponce.
KOREA 1951-53 (-?) Troops, naval, bombing , nuclear threats U.S./So. Korea fights China/No. Korea to stalemate; A-bomb threat in 1950, and against China in 1953. Still have bases.
IRAN 1953 Command Operation CIA overthrows democracy, installs Shah.
VIETNAM 1954 Nuclear threat French offered bombs to use against seige.
GUATEMALA 1954 Command operation, bombing, nuclear threat CIA directs exile invasion after new gov’t nationalized U.S. company lands; bombers based in Nicaragua.
EGYPT 1956 Nuclear threat, troops Soviets told to keep out of Suez crisis; Marines evacuate foreigners.
LEBANON l958 Troops, naval Army & Marine occupation against rebels.
IRAQ 1958 Nuclear threat Iraq warned against invading Kuwait.
CHINA l958 Nuclear threat China told not to move on Taiwan isles.
PANAMA 1958 Troops Flag protests erupt into confrontation.
VIETNAM l960-75 Troops, naval, bombing, nuclear threats Fought South Vietnam revolt & North Vietnam; one million killed in longest U.S. war; atomic bomb threats in l968 and l969.
CUBA l961 Command operation CIA-directed exile invasion fails.
GERMANY l961 Nuclear threat Alert during Berlin Wall crisis.
LAOS 1962 Command operation Military buildup during guerrilla war.
CUBA l962 Nuclear threat, naval Blockade during missile crisis; near-war with Soviet Union.
IRAQ 1963 Command operation CIA organizes coup that killed president, brings Ba’ath Party to power, and Saddam Hussein back from exile to be head of the secret service.
PANAMA l964 Troops Panamanians shot for urging canal’s return.
INDONESIA l965 Command operation Million killed in CIA-assisted army coup.
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC 1965-66 Troops, bombing Army & Marines land during election campaign.
GUATEMALA l966-67 Command operation Green Berets intervene against rebels.
DETROIT l967 Troops Army battles African Americans, 43 killed.
UNITED STATES l968 Troops After King is shot; over 21,000 soldiers in cities.
CAMBODIA l969-75 Bombing, troops, naval Up to 2 million killed in decade of bombing, starvation, and political chaos.
OMAN l970 Command operation U.S. directs Iranian marine invasion.
LAOS l971-73 Command operation, bombing U.S. directs South Vietnamese invasion; “carpet-bombs” countryside.
SOUTH DAKOTA l973 Command operation Army directs Wounded Knee siege of Lakotas.
MIDEAST 1973 Nuclear threat World-wide alert during Mideast War.
CHILE 1973 Command operation CIA-backed coup ousts elected marxist president.
CAMBODIA l975 Troops, bombing Gassing of captured ship Mayagüez, 28 troops die when copter shot down.
ANGOLA l976-92 Command operation CIA assists South African-backed rebels.
IRAN l980 Troops, nuclear threat, aborted bombing Raid to rescue Embassy hostages; 8 troops die in copter-plane crash. Soviets warned not to get involved in revolution.
LIBYA l981 Naval jets Two Libyan jets shot down in maneuvers.
EL SALVADOR l981-92 Command operation, troops Advisors, overflights aid anti-rebel war, soldiers briefly involved in hostage clash.
NICARAGUA l981-90 Command operation, naval CIA directs exile (Contra) invasions, plants harbor mines against revolution.
LEBANON l982-84 Naval, bombing, troops Marines expel PLO and back Phalangists, Navy bombs and shells Muslim positions. 241 Marines killed when Shi’a rebel bombs barracks.
GRENADA l983-84 Troops, bombing Invasion four years after revolution.
HONDURAS l983-89 Troops Maneuvers help build bases near borders.
IRAN l984 Jets Two Iranian jets shot down over Persian Gulf.
LIBYA l986 Bombing, naval Air strikes to topple Qaddafi gov’t.
BOLIVIA 1986 Troops Army assists raids on cocaine region.
IRAN l987-88 Naval, bombing US intervenes on side of Iraq in war, defending reflagged tankers and shooting down civilian jet.
LIBYA 1989 Naval jets Two Libyan jets shot down.
VIRGIN ISLANDS 1989 Troops St. Croix Black unrest after storm.
PHILIPPINES 1989 Jets Air cover provided for government against coup.
PANAMA 1989 (-?) Troops, bombing Nationalist government ousted by 27,000 soldiers, leaders arrested, 2000+ killed.
LIBERIA 1990 Troops Foreigners evacuated during civil war.
SAUDI ARABIA 1990-91 Troops, jets Iraq countered after invading Kuwait. 540,000 troops also stationed in Oman, Qatar, Bahrain, UAE, Israel.
IRAQ 1990-91 Bombing, troops, naval Blockade of Iraqi and Jordanian ports, air strikes; 200,000+ killed in invasion of Iraq and Kuwait; large-scale destruction of Iraqi military.
KUWAIT 1991 Naval, bombing, troops Kuwait royal family returned to throne.
IRAQ 1991-2003 Bombing, naval No-fly zone over Kurdish north, Shiite south; constant air strikes and naval-enforced economic sanctions
LOS ANGELES 1992 Troops Army, Marines deployed against anti-police uprising.
SOMALIA 1992-94 Troops, naval, bombing U.S.-led United Nations occupation during civil war; raids against one Mogadishu faction.
YUGOSLAVIA 1992-94 Naval NATO blockade of Serbia and Montenegro.
BOSNIA 1993-? Jets, bombing No-fly zone patrolled in civil war; downed jets, bombed Serbs.
HAITI 1994 Troops, naval Blockade against military government; troops restore President Aristide to office three years after coup.
ZAIRE (CONGO) 1996-97 Troops Troops at Rwandan Hutu refugee camps, in area where Congo revolution begins.
LIBERIA 1997 Troops Soldiers under fire during evacuation of foreigners.
ALBANIA 1997 Troops Soldiers under fire during evacuation of foreigners.
SUDAN 1998 Missiles Attack on pharmaceutical plant alleged to be “terrorist” nerve gas plant.
AFGHANISTAN 1998 Missiles Attack on former CIA training camps used by Islamic fundamentalist groups alleged to have attacked embassies.
IRAQ 1998 Bombing, Missiles Four days of intensive air strikes after weapons inspectors allege Iraqi obstructions.
YUGOSLAVIA 1999 Bombing, Missiles Heavy NATO air strikes after Serbia declines to withdraw from Kosovo. NATO occupation of Kosovo.
YEMEN 2000 Naval USS Cole, docked in Aden, bombed.
MACEDONIA 2001 Troops NATO forces deployed to move and disarm Albanian rebels.
UNITED STATES 2001 Jets, naval Reaction to hijacker attacks on New York, DC
AFGHANISTAN 2001-? Troops, bombing, missiles Massive U.S. mobilization to overthrow Taliban, hunt Al Qaeda fighters, install Karzai regime, and battle Taliban insurgency. More than 30,000 U.S. troops and numerous private security contractors carry our occupation.
YEMEN 2002 Missiles Predator drone missile attack on Al Qaeda, including a US citizen.
PHILIPPINES 2002-? Troops, naval Training mission for Philippine military fighting Abu Sayyaf rebels evolves into combat missions in Sulu Archipelago, west of Mindanao.
COLOMBIA 2003-? Troops US special forces sent to rebel zone to back up Colombian military protecting oil pipeline.
IRAQ 2003-11 Troops, naval, bombing, missiles Saddam regime toppled in Baghdad. More than 250,000 U.S. personnel participate in invasion. US and UK forces occupy country and battle Sunni and Shi’ite insurgencies. More than 160,000 troops and numerous private contractors carry out occupation and build large permanent bases.
LIBERIA 2003 Troops Brief involvement in peacekeeping force as rebels drove out leader.
HAITI 2004-05 Troops, naval Marines & Army land after right-wing rebels oust elected President Aristide, who was advised to leave by Washington.
PAKISTAN 2005-? Missiles, bombing, covert operation CIA missile and air strikes and Special Forces raids on alleged Al Qaeda and Taliban refuge villages kill multiple civilians. Drone attacks also on Pakistani Mehsud network.
SOMALIA 2006-? Missiles, naval, troops, command operation Special Forces advise Ethiopian invasion that topples Islamist government; AC-130 strikes, Cruise missile attacks and helicopter raids against Islamist rebels; naval blockade against “pirates” and insurgents.
SYRIA 2008 Troops Special Forces in helicopter raid 5 miles from Iraq kill 8 Syrian civilians
YEMEN 2009-? Missiles, command operation Cruise missile attack on Al Qaeda kills 49 civilians; Yemeni military assaults on rebels
LIBYA 2011-? Bombing, missiles, troops, command operation NATO coordinates air strikes and missile attacks against Qaddafi government during uprising by rebel army. Periodic Special Forces raids against Islamist insurgents.
IRAQ 2014-? Bombing, missiles, troops, command operation
Air strikes and Special Forces intervene against Islamic State insurgents; training Iraqi and Kurdish troops.
SYRIA 2014-? Bombing, missiles, troops, command operation
Air strikes and Special Forces intervene against Islamic State insurgents; training other Syrian insurgents.
shortonoil on Wed, 11th Feb 2015 9:36 am
The the MSM is handling the growing geopolitical events like a bunch of school children on the play ground. “Teacher, teacher Johnny hit me”!! Whether through ignorance, or child like self serving intent the attempt to lay blame on someone else is the oldest game in the sandbox. The opponent we are facing is not some other nation state, it is the omnipotent forces of nature taking their inevitable course. The world that we know is dying, and the empire is trashing around like a stranded fish on the beach; gasping for its last breath of air. The end of the oil age is coming like a bulldozer through a china shop, and whether Saudi Arabia cuts prices to Mongolia, Russia doesn’t like the situation in the Crimea, or the US bombs another wedding party in Syria is irrelevant. They are all ephemeral aspects of a civilization that is no longer sustainable.
Anyone who thinks that their situation will improve by kicking Johnny in the shins is a fool. The geopolitical games now being played are like the captain of the Titanic pounding out the bottoms of the life boats to prevent the passengers from demanding a refund. We can throw sand in the other kids eyes, but the cold North Atlantic waves will take us all in their dying embrace! Our only hope is to face this oncoming monster together. We can trust our fellow man more than we can trust Mother Nature to give us some kind of a reprieve. Compassion for the creatures that She creates, and destroys has never been one of Her notable traits.
http://www.thehillsgroup.org/
bobinget on Wed, 11th Feb 2015 9:38 am
Consumption, last paragraph
Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week Ending February 6, 2015
U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged about 15.6 million barrels per day during the week ending February 6, 2015, 20,000 barrels per day more than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 90.0% of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production decreased last week, averaging 8.7 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production increased last week, averaging 4.7 million barrels per day.
U.S. crude oil imports averaged 7.3 million barrels per day last week, down by 101,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Over the last four weeks, crude oil imports averaged over 7.3 million barrels per day, 3.6% below the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 462,000 barrels per day. Distillate fuel imports averaged 269,000 barrels per day last week.
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 4.9 million barrels from the previous week. At 417.9 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are at the highest level for this time of year in at least the last 80 years. Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 2.0 million barrels last week, and are above the upper limit of the average range. Finished gasoline inventories decreased while blending components inventories increased last week. Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 3.3 million barrels last week and are in the lower half of the average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories fell 2.3 million barrels last week but are well above the upper limit of the average range. Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 2.2 million barrels last week.
Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged about 19.8 million barrels per day, up by 3.1% from the same period last year. Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged over 8.6 million barrels per day, up by 3.5% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged about 4.3 million barrels per day over the last four weeks, up by 7.3% from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied is up 6.3% compared to the same four-week period last year.
bobinget on Wed, 11th Feb 2015 9:52 am
Traders will always point to storage in ANY commodity. In this case refineries are storing crude oil because prices are Below Cost of Production.
This obviously cannot last into spring.
Speaking of weather, the NE of the US is experiencing record snowfalls that certainly inhibit driving. Nevertheless, oil consumption is up 3.5%
Gasoline, up 3.5% Diesel and Heating oil up 7.3%!
Despite thousands of cancellations, jet fuel up 6.3%
Note also, refineries are at 90% capacity. Which should for any reasonable person put doubts
as to the nature of our largest inventory in over 80 years.
Simply put, this is NOT 2008 where the US was shedding 200,000 jobs a week. In fact, at last count there are 500,000 thousand unfilled positions awaiting qualified applicants.
Davy on Wed, 11th Feb 2015 10:01 am
Great post short and one the anti-Americans and American flag waivers should take to heart. Maybe you extremist on both sides will listen to short because I know I am ignored. He has position of respect here that deserves a second read to his comment.
bobinget on Wed, 11th Feb 2015 10:02 am
Just read shortonoil’s last post.
Anyone here fooled by short’s magic-thinking
should read this day’s EIA reports and comment.
The US is the only… that’s right, the only country
that issues a a weekly, transparent, report on storage, consumption, imports, exports, ethanol, refinery inputs etc.
Rather then engage in a dialog with shortonoil
May I suggest reading pages of EIA reports.
http://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
Davy on Wed, 11th Feb 2015 10:09 am
Bobby, I make serious charges when warranted. US policy now is criminal both domestically and international. We have gutted the constitution at home and are hijacked by a global elite intent on a domination by a few plutocrat allied in an unholy pursuit of global booty. This is so plains and simple to see. What is worse about US policy is the supposed moral high ground of American exceptionalism that frankly makes me puke.
Any of you ant-Americans that love to here that need to realize your poster girls are worse in many if not most criteria they just lack the tentacles of ex-superpower projection to make the effects magnified. Russia is among the worst for reasons of being a national mafia. China being another for killing the world with cancerous growth for the greed of a corrupt and exploitive party of a few.
How’s that set with you Bobby?
Davy on Wed, 11th Feb 2015 10:15 am
Poor Bobby, bad news screerrs him. Marm is a closet nutter or why else would he be here. Reminds me of a cheating and hard drinking baptist preacher.
You nutter wannabes need to be open to change and the possibity your whole lives could be based on a lie. Wake up boys before reality swallows you up.
GregT on Wed, 11th Feb 2015 10:38 am
“Great post short and one the anti-Americans and American flag waivers should take to heart. Maybe you extremist on both sides will listen to short because I know I am ignored. He has position of respect here that deserves a second read to his comment.”
Short’s comment is spot on.
Maybe if enough people expose the fact that the empire is flailing on the beach, we won’t need to experience a global thermo-nuclear war.
Davy on Wed, 11th Feb 2015 11:03 am
Greg, I would caveat with plural empires and empire of the global elite. This is a multi polar world as much destabilized by the other empires as the biggest empire. The U.S. empire is for sale to the highest bidder so in a sense it is a mercenary Empire.
It takes two to tango. Last I noticed Russia is the leading nation in the world with NUK weapons. They are modernizing these weapons and the delivery vehicles. China is fielding a new generation of MIR’s. Surely you don’t condone that behavior as benignly and brotherly. To say Russia and China are being forced into this is a circular augment of which short commented upon.
Speculawyer on Wed, 11th Feb 2015 12:42 pm
“YES the Saudis could voluntarily cut their production to boost oil prices. But so could Russia, the U.S., Nigeria, Canada etc etc. none of them are doing it”
Well, actually the USA and Canada are doing it. Our oil tends to be some the most expensive to extract (tight oil & tar sands) so we are cutting back on production since it is no longer profitable. I’m sure you’ve seen the many stories of thousands being laid-off in the oil patch.
Speculawyer on Wed, 11th Feb 2015 12:43 pm
I miss TheOilDrum so much. This place is filled with loopy conspiracy theorists.
Davy on Wed, 11th Feb 2015 12:56 pm
Spec, start your own blog site. This is a free country. We can manage without you don’t worry.
Steve Challis on Wed, 11th Feb 2015 3:10 pm
Bobinget,
Thank you for the list of US foreign interventions since 1898.
I was told (in the Philippines) that the number of Filipinos killed in the American-Filipino War war 300,000, (Out of a population at the time of 6 million)not 600,000 as you put On Wikipedia the number of casualties seems to be minimized.
I am interested In your source for the 600,000 figure.
Steve Challis on Wed, 11th Feb 2015 3:18 pm
Bibinget, Please excuse the lack of a full stop in my last post. The full stoop should have come after put, and before Wikipedia.
apneaman on Wed, 11th Feb 2015 3:20 pm
I was married to an American, lived in America and have an extended family and a bunch of friends down there that I miss and am very worried for. What I am is anti Americanism, Anti expansionism and anti anyone who tries to promote or excuse make for that brutal and bloody history…on going, I might add. Given that we are in global overshoot, further aggression towards EVERYONE is the worst thing. I expect the worst because the people in charge are only concerned with more power, status and wealth. Me and my family do not count and you and your kids do not count except as wage slaves and bullet bags. The whole concept of MAD seems to be lost on our bankster/corporate/MIC overlords.
Plantagenet on Wed, 11th Feb 2015 3:21 pm
SPEC. Don’t let them bully u into leaving….. you’re one of the few sane people here
GregT on Wed, 11th Feb 2015 3:24 pm
Spec,
If the official conspiracy theories are easier for you to accept, then perhaps you should avoid places where people are capable of thinking for themselves.
GregT on Wed, 11th Feb 2015 3:42 pm
Davy,
“It takes two to tango”
Agreed, but it only takes one to play the music.
Davy on Wed, 11th Feb 2015 4:13 pm
AP, your alright, a misanthrope that don’t like woman, children, and dogs can’t be all bad.
Perk Earl on Wed, 11th Feb 2015 4:45 pm
“Whether through ignorance, or child like self serving intent the attempt to lay blame on someone else is the oldest game in the sandbox.”
Pretty hilarious, short just how immature these blame games are getting. The one I think takes the cake is claiming OPEC is no longer viable because they weren’t willing to cut production to keep the price higher. OPEC was suppose to lose market share so we would then respect them as viable?! I find that the height of self indulgence. What their saying is we’ll only respect you as viable if you cow tow to our needs, i.e our need to continue to frack for LTO.
Don on Wed, 11th Feb 2015 4:53 pm
I find it so funny how so many people in their scrubby countries love to bitch about American intervention, right up until they are the ones that need us.
People like Mak are very quick to forget that the only reason his people weren’t eradicated in WWII was America. He is literally only alive because people like my grandfather were willing to get involved.
All of the european people that like to bitch about how we stick our nose where it doesn’t belong seem to forget that they would be speaking German or more likely be a lampshade right now without US military intervention. So when we finally said nope we’re not going to intervene here, Bosnia is one of your own, you guys handle it, that didn’t go so well. It didn’t go very well because european countries have inept militaries, and they have inept militaries because they rely on ours. Once again our guys got tasked with cleaning up more of europe’s messes.
So remember how much you like to bitch about us the next time your scrub country comes crying to daddy to save you.
For Mak it likely wont be long before he is begging for us to come back because someone changed the name on his mailbox to Chan, and somehow this should be the duty of my children.
Think about it for just a minute, what would the world look like if the US tomorrow said “That’s it we’re pulling all of our troops back home and we will not fight anymore except to defend our own boarders.” If you do not live in the US you would now likely be living in a war zone.
So go on and bitch all you want, hate us all you want, but like it or not, it doesn’t matter where you are in the world, if you are able to sleep soundly and safely tonight it is for one reason; the good old US military.
Ironically enough, if you are unable to sleep safely and soundly it is quite possibly for the same reason.
apneaman on Wed, 11th Feb 2015 5:14 pm
Fuck you Don and your Rush Limbaugh revisionist history. The US never got into WWII well over a year after it started and only after the Japanese bloodied your nose. My Country declared war on the Germans 6 days after they invaded Poland. Most Americans wanted nothing to do with it. That’s why the majority had to be drafted. No dis respect to the sacrifices that they made, but many others from other countries died long before America got in, although many American corporations profited by selling shit to the Germans before and during. Your understanding of history is a fucking spoon fed propaganda cartoon. Spare us. BTW you had nothing to do with it so get off the coat tails.
Davy on Wed, 11th Feb 2015 5:22 pm
Don, you know that kind of post will rile the natives up.
Thanks for the Mak attack. I can always use some support in the fox hole fighting the Hun.
Harquebus on Wed, 11th Feb 2015 6:14 pm
Bobinget. You missed one.
The forgotten coup – how America and Britain crushed the government of their ‘ally’, Australia
http://johnpilger.com/articles/the-forgotten-coup-how-america-and-britain-crushed-the-government-of-their-ally-australia
apneaman on Wed, 11th Feb 2015 6:23 pm
Hey Don, what do you have to say to those still alive from the greatest generation who fought the war. When they ask you what you have done to prevent the rape of the country at the hands of a few, what do you say to them? Who do you blame for your house not being in order? You are from one of the following generations that reaped the rewards and did nothing as the country went to shit. It is not even anywhere near the same country now and the values are so far removed from theirs that you should rename the place. What is it exactly that you are looking for? A big thank you from a world of people, who like you were not even born when WWII ended last century in 1945. Do you expect to be honored by their great grand children for something you had fuck all to do with. Pray tell Don what is your big accomplishment that the world should honor you for. The fact that you just happened to be born where you were? Is that your claim to fame in this world Don? You must feel so proud to have won the genetic lottery. I bet the country and the entire world for that matter would fall apart if it were not for you reminding us of all the accomplishments of long past generations. Is that your prescription to fix the worlds problems, more patriotism at home and groveling abroad? Maybe if we had more American Snipers that would fix things up real good. I’ll sleep better tonight now that you have reminded me that you know that the US military is watching out for me and the rest of the completely helpless people of planet earth and helping us with our natural resources too. You are indispensable Don. If only the world was more like you.
Beyond Medieval
This is extraordinary. Just 6 people in Connecticut have so much wealth, that if even a single one of them left, there would be a huge drop in state revenue coffers!
http://hipcrime.blogspot.ca/2015/02/beyond-medieval.html#comment-form
Makati1 on Wed, 11th Feb 2015 7:20 pm
Easy to see the cool aid drinkers here.
The Us physically go into the war on D Day.
WW@ Deaths:
Russia: ~25,000,000 total
9.750,000 military
China: ~15,000,000 total
3,500,000 military
Germany: ~8,000,000 total
5,533,000 military
Poland: ~5,720,000 total
240,000 military
Japan: ~2,870,000 total
2,120,000 military
Philippines: 807,000 total
57,000 military
UK: 450,900 total
382,700 military
US: 418,500 total
416,800 military
http://www.secondworldwarhistory.com/world-war-2-statistics.asp
The US came into the war AFTER the UK shut down the sales/shipment of arms to Germany by sinking any ship trying to make it to a German port. Profits came before morals and still do. Try to read world history from a non-Western source and open your eyes.
Makati1 on Wed, 11th Feb 2015 7:29 pm
BTW: ‘D Day’ was at the point where Germany was already losing the war and the US knew it. Ditto for Japan. Easy to come in and taker credit when the enemy is down. But the Us then made most of Europe colones fr profit, of course. I wonder how the US would be IF there had been no oil in Texas? Like Mexico?
And, before you jump, my Dad parachute dropped behind the lines in France on D-Day. We talked about it some when he visited me here a few years before his death at 88. His view of the war was a lot different than what we were taught.
Davy on Wed, 11th Feb 2015 7:53 pm
Mak, please spare us your lame history lessons. What is your point other than to crow about deaths and how more death equals more value? We all know you have a sick fascination with death and destruction. We know how you lust for NUK war. Please get a life or go play with your monkey.
Don on Wed, 11th Feb 2015 7:55 pm
I know I know. I just get frustrated hearing so much trash talking. It’s like listening to a bunch of 5 year olds that keep saying how they don’t need a babysitter yet they constantly need a babysitter. They just don’t seem to understand we don’t want to be their babysitter, we just don’t have a choice because there is no one else to watch them. I would much prefer spending my money on myself or my family instead of on building an ever more expensive military to protect a bunch of ingrates, yet here I am giving my money to provide a military that protects the rest of the world, and giving out allowances to the kids that play nice. I don’t want my daughter to have to go protect a bunch of spoiled euro brats that can’t take care of themselves so that she can develop a bunch of scar tissue like her old man, yet that’s probably in her future too. Woohoo for “winning the genetic lottery” and being born into the one mostly functional country in the world.
“Wow, look at that, just what I always wanted, to own a house with a hundred 40 year olds still living in the basement constantly telling me where I’m messing up and insisting that they don’t need me.” Said no American ever.
GregT on Wed, 11th Feb 2015 8:58 pm
You are living in a fantasy world Don. I have travelled extensively around the globe, and Americans are generally not liked anywhere. Also, if you believe that you live in the “one mostly functional country in the world”, you are one completely deluded individual. Nothing could be further from the truth.
GregT on Wed, 11th Feb 2015 9:19 pm
Davy,
“Don, you know that kind of post will rile the natives up.”
If course it would get people riled up Davy, because it isn’t the truth. People do not generally respond well when they are being fed bullshit.
You should know better than to support lies Davy. We may not agree on everything all of the time, but we have both learned something from one another. What Don wrote above is completely out of line.
GregT on Wed, 11th Feb 2015 9:29 pm
Furthermore,
These are the morons that have given Americans a bad name Davy. If I heard a fellow Canadian spewing the same crap I would take him or her to task as well.
I have friends and relatives in the States that I respect greatly, that would also shut down this American exceptionalist garbage immediately. This dolt is giving
good Americans like yourself a bad name. I personally would not stand for it.
Davy on Thu, 12th Feb 2015 6:07 am
Calm down Greg, I was trying to be funny. We geopolitical folks on the forum here are passionate as we should be. We are talking the life and death of society how can one not get passionate. The geological focused folks here can clinically talk geology but that is not the complete reality of PO. Peak oil is about collapse of modern man and that collapse could be ugly, painful, and deadly. It cannot be decoupled from this reality. I do not blame those who approach it clinically. It allows a specialization of their comments we need here and it offers a break from the deadly serious passions that you Greg and I have.
I am guilty of a dry and obtuse sense of humor. You will never really know if I am laughing, pissed, or crying. I fool myself sometimes by feeling passionate and angry but then finding humor somewhere in those thoughts which clouds my point. The king always had a jester to break the ice cold feeling of bad passions that can lead to bad policy.
Greg, my many comments should clearly indicate I do not buy into Don’s ideas. These ideas are true of many in the US. I buy into that part of it. They believe it and consequently it has a reality by virtue of belief. The belief rightly or wrongly has a manifestation. IMA Greg, the simplistic flag waving is not any different in your favored countries. Russia is full of it as is many of the other world powers. It is a basic human nature of pride in one’s home team. China is currently one of the worst because they have seen their country rise to the top of the major powers. Russian’s like Putin so much because he has given them back pride. The US is searching for a leader that will instill that pride again. That my friend reminds me of the 30’s and should be a worry.
I personally am apolitical and vomit at flag waiving of all colors. I am a back to the tribe type guy. I believe in local, community, tribe, and family. This will be the product of collapse of modern man. It will be a clearing out of bad blood and a rebirth of a new societal paradigm.
I can’t tell you the when, where, how of this paradigm shift. If it is 10 or more years down the road then I am not much different than Hubert with a theory that is predated so many years as to be irrelevant per MSM. Yet, Hubert sparked an interest in the profound problem of energy and modern society.
I don’t want to be grandiose here. These are not the product of my creative thoughts. These thoughts are an amalgamation of the best and brightest in the world with vision. They are not mainstream and dwell on the fringe of accepted discourse.
I can tell you we are on the cusp of collapse with all the ingredients for a shake down on all levels. When you understand you are in a complex energy intensive society and energy intensity and complexity will decay that indicates predicaments that cannot be solved. The one all important variable for us mortal humans is time. We are a time dominated species. All species have rhythms but our species has a rational time dependent value system. Everything we do is influenced by time.
I would argue that even our deepest religious meaning is of the essence of time itself. Does not Abrahamic religions talk about the alpha and the omega? Doesn’t Taoism talk about the eternal now? The great Mayans were a time based civilization among many of the great early civilizations. IMA the Mayan’s calendar has foretold this paradigm shift just not how Hollywood portrayed it. Is not our capitalistic and democratic values of growth and progress? I throw the market in because that is the real religion of modern man that has taken over all aspects of life.