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Page added on June 15, 2014
How Isis have rampaged towards the capital
Who are ISIS?
The Islamic State of Iraq and Greater Syria (ISIS) grew out of Al Qaeda In Iraq, a militant group that emerged in the chaos engulfing the country after the 2003 invasion.
They rebranded themselves after the Syrian uprising, attracting foreign fighters and controlling areas with extreme brutality, such as beheadings and crucifixions.
Now even Al Qaeda thinks they are too violent.
What do they want?
A calpihate – a single Islamic state spread across large chunks of Syria and Iraq, based on the harshest interpretation of Sharia law. It includes ordering women to stay at home, amputating the hands of thieves, destroying religious shrines, and outlawing music.
Where are they headed?
Iraq has been spiralling back into chaos this year after ISIS first captured Fallujah then fought for control of Samarra and organised prison breaks.
Yet, the world was caught by surprise on Tuesday when the fanatics seized Mosul, Iraq’s second city. Then they took Saddam Hussein’s birthplace of Tikrit and drove south towards the capital Baghdad.
What about the Kurds?
After being gassed by Saddam and repressed by Turkey, their semi-autonomous republic developed into a rare zone of stability in this region over the past decade, drawing significant foreign investment from oil firms.
Their well-drilled Peshmerga forces quickly grabbed the oil city of Kirkuk last week and are a vital bulwark against militants.
How Britain carved up Middle East
Many believe Iraq’s problems date back a century to when British and French officials carved up the Middle East after the First World War.
The modern-day country corresponds roughly to the ancient kingdom of Mesopotamia, but the borders drawn up for the British mandate took no account of local religious and tribal divisions.
Some argue there can only be peace when these historic anomalies are rectified by carving the country into three distinct nations.
ISIS FORCES
They have about 12,000 fighters in Iraq and Syria, including 500 Europeans and 2,500 from other areas such as Pakistan and Chechnya.
They have support from some criminal groups and Sunni moderates, plus huge amounts of captured US-supplied arms and £250 million in seized cash.
FIGHTERS: 12,000
HELICOPTERS: 6 (captured Black Hawks)
ISIS SUPPORTERS: They have received covert funding from supporters in Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Cash has also flowed through Kuwait, and Turkey may have sent arms and money.
IRAQI FORCES
The Iraqi government has almost one million security personnel under its control, who are US-trained and equipped.
These include 270,000 soldiers, yet they abandoned Mosul without firing a shot.
Nobody knows why they were not ordered to fight Isis, but there is speculation some senior officers and former Saddam loyalists may sympathise with them.
SOLDIERS: 270,000
TANKS: 350
AIRCRAFT: 210
GOVERNMENT SUPPORTERS: In oneof the strangest alliances in history, both Iran and the U.S. – until recently ‘the Great Satan’ to Tehran – could end up intervening to prop up the Iraq regime.
They would be backed by Western states, including Britain, with China and Russia, a supporter of President Bashar Assad, who is fighting ISIS in Syria.
THE SUNNIS
Who are they?
Sunnis belong to the largest branch of Islam. They see themselves as orthodox, following a schism from a dispute over who should succeed the Prophet Muhammad after his death in 632.
Where are they?
In most places where there are Muslims, since they comprise 85 per cent of the faith’s 1.6 billion adherents worldwide.
Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and the Gulf States are all Sunni, with a sizeable majority in Syria.
What about Iraq?
About a third of Iraqis are Sunni, concentrated largely in the north.
Yet all the rulers have come from their ranks since Iraq’s emergence as a modern state almost a century ago.
They dominated under Saddam, although his regime was secular.
THE SHIA
Who are they?
The smaller and more Messianic branch of Islam, the Shia sprung originally from a political faction pushing for the right of the Prophet Muhammad’s son-in-law and his descendants to lead their community.
Where are they?
They are the majority in Iran, their global power base, but also in Azerbaijan, Bahrain and Yemen. It is estimated there are about 150 million worldwide, with some 150,000 in Britain and large communities in Afghanistan, India, Lebanon and Pakistan.
What about Iraq?
They make up the majority, but for decades were kept from power. Both prime ministers since the fall of Saddam have been Shia.
The first government was secular, but under the blundering Nouri al-Maliki they have faced discrimination and been increasingly marginalised.
Will there be air strikes by the U.S.?
President Barack Obama has ruled out sending troops back to Iraq but kept open ‘other options’.
US military chiefs say they could start drone and aircraft strikes within 24 hours from bases such as Incirlik, in Turkey, which enforced no-fly zones against Saddam in the 1990s. The nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS George H W Bush is also close to the Persian Gulf, holding more than 50 attack aircraft.
Option: Air strikes with drones are one of the options the U.S. is considering
Leaders locked in a deadly power struggle
ABU BAKR AL-BAGHDADI, ISIS LEADER
There are only two confirmed photographs of the man seen as the world’s most feared jihadist. One was taken when he was caught by US troops in 2005 and held captive for four years.
After his release, the 43-year-old ex-preacher – who claims to be a descendant of the Prophet Muhammad and was radicalised by the 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq – turned Al Qaeda’s local franchise into a force feared for its mix of savagery and smartness.
Born in Samarra, so little is known of him, he is called ‘the invisible jihadist’.
NOURI MALIKI, IRAQ PRIME MINISTER
A Shia dissident who fled execution under Saddam Hussein, but then as newly-elected prime minister, signed the dictator’s own death sentence in 2006.
The 63-year-old’s incompetent and sectarian rule has driven some moderate Sunnis into supporting the militants, purging them from government, cracking down on peaceful protests and using the judiciary to silence rivals.
He has recently become even closer to Iran, concentrating power in Shia hands.
25 Comments on "How Isis have rampaged towards the capital"
Davy, Hermann, MO on Sun, 15th Jun 2014 7:38 am
Taking the Sunni north is one thing rolling through Bagdad with a ragtag Sunni rebel force is another. The Shia’s have no interest in being persecuted and will fight to the death around their homeland. The army will consolidate and regroup. Since Bagdad is multicultural with both groups present there will most likely be a low level civil war until both sides accept there can be no victory. They have seen the example in Syria. The Iraqi Sunni’s have a home now and will not want to destroy that in a civil war. There is far too many Shia’s in a position of strength with the US and Iran behind them. The Shia’s have oil funds coming in. So no, the ISIS will be blunted as the reach the Shia heartland. Baghdad may suffer but the lines are drawn and drawn where they probably should be. The Iraqi mentality is not one to accommodate other faiths or cultures like other nation states. Let this country settle out from the former Iraq into 3 countries nearly along the lines we see today. The big issue is divided Baghdad.
Arthur2 on Sun, 15th Jun 2014 9:34 am
This is the beginning of the end of the secular Baath regimes, Sunni fundamentalism is next. What happened in Iran in 1980 is now happening in the Sunni world. This is not a rag-tag army, but a group of highly disciplined and determined warriers and ‘secretly’ bankrolled by SA and Qatar and perhaps also by crypto-fundamentalist Erdogan. The original bolshevik party had merely 10,000 members in 1917, yet managed to set half the world on fire in a few decades time, funded by the Wallstreet banking elite. Now ISIS controls large parts of Iraq and Syria, meaning that these countries are history, never to return. The uprising in Syria was instigated by the empire in an attempt to destroy an ally of the last three power centers, bravely holding out against the NWO, namely Russia, China and Iran. Syria could very well be destroyed, but in it’s place could emerge a fundamentalist empire aka caliphate, encompassing Turkey, Syria, Jordan, west Iraq, SA, Egypt and Lybia. Poor Israel. This policy was designed in 1996 by neocons as written down in PNAC and Clean Break documents. Putin had not yet entered the scene and China’s rise was not yet obvious. Then …cough… bin Laden came along to deliver the pretext to invade any country free of charge at Washington’s doorstep. Now, 18 years later, the ME is on the verge of becoming fundamenlist.
Arthur2 on Sun, 15th Jun 2014 9:44 am
Forgot this… ISIS will not take Bagdad, likely not even try, just grab as much Sunni territory as possible. Meanwhile ISIS controls an embryonal state that will function as a magnet to jihadis from all over the world as a stepping stone towards the caliphate, supported by SA, Qatar, Muslim Brotherhood and most important Turkey.
Now we could be witnessing the most unlikely coalition in world history: Washington, Tehran and Damascus. Kerry shaking hands with Assad.lol Expect Putin roaring with laughter. Too bad he loses Tarsus, but he won’t mind if the west loses the entire ME.
Davey on Sun, 15th Jun 2014 10:41 am
Art, Good point concerning the Iraq fundamentalist magnet. A worst nightmare for the west. Oil will soon be a bargaining chip if the Shias can’t hold.
Repent on Sun, 15th Jun 2014 11:04 am
This article is 100% propaganda- we’ve been infiltrated !
This is a pathetic excuse to try to draw Syria into this conflict for the powers that be to start a war. Total bullshit.
Arthur2 on Sun, 15th Jun 2014 11:12 am
Davey, I think the Shias will hold, as they have mighty allies: Russia, China, Iran and (drumroll)… the US!!! Rofl.
Putin will benefit from this now that attention will move away ftom Ukraine to the ME again. What a breathtaking development.
rockman on Sun, 15th Jun 2014 11:35 am
Davey – That’s how I see the dynamics progressing. ISIS will probably harass Baghdad from afar but not try to rake it. Other than symbolic now good reason IMHO. But they’ll hold ground close enough to the Shea controlled oil fields to be a constant threat. Eventually there may be a relatively static situation develop. Unless a major coalition of EU and US forces try to displace them. An unlikely possibility IMHO. Likewise a Sunni supporting coalition taking out the Shia partition of Iraq also seems unlikely. Perhaps developing like the current Israel/Palestinian dynamic.
And despite all the religious angles I suspect the secular demand of revenue from oil production will ultimately rule the day. Which should ultimately satisfy the US, EU, China and all other oil importers.
Perk Earl on Sun, 15th Jun 2014 12:26 pm
I’m leaning towards ISIS consolidating their recent territorial victories by simply defending what has been captured and establishing their harsh sharia law.
Then later in the year when the weather cools, mounting a new offensive south to encircle Baghdad and cut off it’s supply lines. If successful the oil fields to the south lay open for the taking.
I think this ISIS movement will end up being a much bigger problem than most think it will, especially if the Saudi and Qatar funding is accurate.
Arthur2 on Sun, 15th Jun 2014 12:38 pm
Here a fascinating interview former US amb to Eyerack Chris Hill has with RT:
Youtube “Iraq: ISIS-ted Democracy? (ft. former US Amb to Iraq)”
Everything has changed in a matter of days. Hill now wants to solve the crisis together with… Russia!! Hill doesn’t want to see Assad removed any longer, but maintains that killing Saddam was a good thing, because, you see, Saddam attacked his neighbours (like Iran with full support and encouragement of the US). While Hills says that, RT hilariously blends in a quote by American historian William Blum, stating that since the end of ww2, the US has overthrown 55 governments world wide. See Blums site for the list.
J-Gav on Sun, 15th Jun 2014 12:55 pm
Art2 – Yeah, Blum’s been quite good at documenting U.S. CIA and military interventions since WWII in books like “Killing Hope,” for example.
synapsid on Sun, 15th Jun 2014 5:03 pm
Perk Earl,
I’ve been wondering about that. If ISIS settled for the territory it has won so far, it seems to me that it wouldn’t have much of a source of income, with Iraq still controlling the southern oilfields and the exporting infrastructure near Basra, and the Kurds in control of the northern.
If ISIS really tries to take over the southern oil resources and infrastructure they will face not only Iraq, which would be up against the wall then, but also all the countries that really want oil to keep leaving Basra. Iran wouldn’t be happy either, as much of their export capacity lies not far to the east.
I shall stay tuned.
Davy, Hermann, MO on Sun, 15th Jun 2014 9:35 pm
Rock, good points. Baghdad has distinct enclaves that will allow a smoldering civil war to develop. ISIS will be able to move through the Sunni areas in and around Baghdad with ease. This will of course depend on overtures by the current Shia leadership that may persuade moderate Sunni’s back in the informal Shia fold. Many tribal situations going on in and around Baghdad. Without the support of these many and various Sunni tribes and factions I doubt ISIS will prevail as the force they are now. They risk making the same mistakes the Taliban made by coming in and roughshodding over the other groups that have no interest in another oppressor there by igniting opposition among the Sunni ranks.
Perk, I personally think the ISIS must get with it now or it will find a much stronger and determined Shia opposition later. The US and Iran are beefing up the Shia’s capabilities as we speak. The ISIS momentum can stall. Also they have a vast territory to secure now. Their supply lines are stretched thin I would imagine. This business of the conquest of a country takes more then what we have seen thus far. It is now a matter of logistics. Logistics are a soft target and can easily be put out of action especially in a desert environment. I feel the ISIS has a big challenge ahead they will not be able to meet. Yet, it is impressive with how far they have come. This is probably more a function of how inept the Shia’s have been with their effort to run the country.
Poordogabone on Sun, 15th Jun 2014 11:12 pm
Caliphate = bogeyman
Al Qaeda = bogeyman
Every time I see any of those terms mentioned in a article, I know that I’m reading pure western propaganda.
next article please…
Makati1 on Mon, 16th Jun 2014 1:52 am
Poordog…, you are very observant. I agree. The Ministry of Propaganda is very active all over the world these days. Especially in the West and western wannabees.
Arthur2 on Mon, 16th Jun 2014 4:26 am
The only real meaning of Al-Qaida was a group of CIA paid local jihadis, armed with stinger missiles, used to drive the USSR out of Afghanistan. Mission accomplished.
Now jihadis (basically a sort of islamic bolsheviks) are portraid as ‘terrorists, hating western freedoms’, where in reality they liked what they accomplished in Afghanistan and now want to kick the West out of the Middle-East. I hope and think they will succeed and will establish their Caliphate, which is their explicit aim and absolutely no ‘bogeyman’.
Poordogabone on Mon, 16th Jun 2014 5:07 am
The last caliphate was abolished in the 1920′, the new generation are walking around with smart phones tweeting and blogging. Anyone who mentions the “Caliphate” are most likely considered backward and on the fringe. What they would rather do in my opinion is get rid of their puppet government and reap the benefit of their oil wealth and control their own destiny for once since WW1..
Davey on Mon, 16th Jun 2014 7:51 am
Art, tell me how they are going to feed themselves in their massively overpopulated caliphate? There is only so many people you can kill executionary style. Even the Germans tired of the slaughter on the eastern front in WWII. These fanatics will be eating camels before long once oil looses its BAU premium.
Arthur2 on Mon, 16th Jun 2014 7:58 am
That’s a very american, progressive way of thinking, to assume that everybody is motivated by money alone and that in reality these folks don’t really take islam serious. Think again. Westerners don’t commit suicide over faith, they don’t have any faith to begin with. These radicals will fight themselves to death if they have to. And a Caliphate is their official goal, iphone or not. These people want the sharia, stone and behead. Is that backward enough for you?
Arthur2 on Mon, 16th Jun 2014 8:01 am
Davey, tell me how Europe is going to survive without oil from the ME? They will sell, we will buy.
Makati1 on Mon, 16th Jun 2014 8:38 am
Arthur2, you are correct and with that oil money they can buy food anywhere. It’s just a matter of price.
Davey on Mon, 16th Jun 2014 8:39 am
There will be a point where the complex oil industry will no longer function as we know it now. At that point oil will be a luxury of the military, gov, and rich. At that point ME will be hungry for food.
Davey on Mon, 16th Jun 2014 8:41 am
The radicals do not represent the entire Islam, Art.
Davey on Mon, 16th Jun 2014 8:45 am
Sure Mak, what oil they can produce and ship which will be little post BAU. There is no way the ME overshoot can be supported even now. The ME is in almost as precarious a state as Asia.
Arthur2 on Mon, 16th Jun 2014 10:55 am
That’s true Davey, but history is made by small determined groups, the 99% watches who wins and obeys the winner.
Furthermore, we may be near peak oil, but not at the end of the oil age, not in a long shot.
Davey on Mon, 16th Jun 2014 11:47 am
Art, always respect your bend on issues and I agree. Time will tell and this will show us what the Shias are made off. They came to power on American coat tails. Let us see if they are up to the task of self protection.