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Page added on August 2, 2016
Heinberg: You Can’t Handle the Truth!
Movie buffs will recognize this title as the most memorable line from “A Few Good Men” (1992), spoken by the character Colonel Jessep, played by Jack Nicholson (“You can’t handle the truth!” is #29 in the American Film Institute’s list of 100 top movie quotes).
I hereby propose it as the subtext of the recently concluded Republican and Democratic national conventions.
At this point most people appear to know that something is terribly, terribly wrong in the United States of America. But like the proverbial blind man describing the elephant, Americans tend to characterize the problem according to their economic status, their education and interests, and the way that the problem is impacting their peer group. So we hear that the biggest crisis facing America today is:
- Corruption
- Immigration
- Economic inequality
- Climate change
- Lack of respect for law enforcement
- Institutionalized racism
- Islamic terrorism
- The greed and recklessness of Wall Street banks
- Those damned far-right Republicans
- Those damned liberal Democrats
- Political polarization
The list could easily be lengthened, but you get the drift. Pick your devil and prepare to get really, really angry at it.
In reality, these are all symptoms of an entirely foreseeable systemic crisis. The basic outlines of that crisis were traced over 40 years ago in a book titled The Limits to Growth. Today we are hitting the limits of net energy, environmental pollution, and debt, and the experience is uncomfortable for just about everyone. The solution that’s being proposed by our political leaders? Find someone to blame.
The Republicans really do seem to get the apocalyptic tenor of the moment: their convention was all about dread, doom, and rage. But they don’t have the foggiest understanding of the actual causes and dynamics of what’s making them angry, and just about everything they propose doing will make matters worse. Call them the party of fear and fury.
The Democrats are more idealistic: if we just distribute wealth more fairly, rein in the greedy banks, and respect everyone’s differences, we can all return to the 1990s when the economy was humming and there were jobs for everyone. No, we can do even better than that, with universal health care and free college tuition. Call the Democrats the party of hope.
But here’s the real deal: a few generations ago we started using fossil fuels for energy; the result was an explosion of production and consumption, which (as a byproduct) enabled enormous and rapid increase in human population. Burning all that coal, oil, and natural gas made a few people very rich and enabled a lot more people to enjoy middle-class lifestyles. But it also polluted air, water, and soil, and released so much carbon dioxide that the planet’s climate is now going haywire. Due to large-scale industrial agriculture, topsoil is disappearing at a rate of 25 billion tons a year; at the same time, expanded population and land use is driving thousands, maybe millions of species of plants and animals to extinction.
We extracted non-renewable fossil fuels using the low-hanging fruit principle, so that just about all the affordable petroleum (which is the basis for nearly all transport) has already been found and most of has already been burned. Since we can’t afford most of the oil that’s left (either in terms of the required financial investment or the energy required to extract and refine it), the petroleum industry is in the process of going bankrupt. There are alternative energy sources, but transitioning to them will require not just building an enormous number of wind turbines and solar panels, but replacing most of the world’s energy-using infrastructure.
We have overshot human population levels that are supportable long-term. Yet we have come to rely on continual expansion of population and consumption in order to generate economic growth—which we see as the solution to all problems. Our medicine is our poison.
And most recently, as a way of keeping the party roaring, we have run up history’s biggest debt bubble—and we doubled down on it in response to the 2008 global financial crisis.
All past civilizations have gone through similar patterns of over-growth and decline. But ours is the first global, fossil-fueled civilization, and its collapse will therefore correspondingly be more devastating (the bigger the boom, the bigger the bust).
All of this constitutes a fairly simple and obvious truth. But evidently our leaders believe that most people simply can’t handle this truth. Either that or our leaders are, themselves, clueless. (I’m not sure which is worse.)
Hence the political primaries generated lots of feelings (anger, hope, fear), but revealed or conveyed almost no understanding of what’s actually going on, what’s in store, or what to do about it.
Now, I’m not proposing that the two parties are equivalent. There are some substantive differences between them. And in dangerous times, hope usually yields better outcomes than fear and rage (though hope is vulnerable to disillusionment and recrimination, which in turn lead back to fear and rage). Some of the Democrats’ ideas may help as we embark on our Great Slide down the steep slope of the Seneca cliff: for example, a universal basic income (not in the Democratic Party’s platform but consistent with its ideals) could provide a temporary safety net as the economy enters its inevitable long nosedive. Democrats at least acknowledge the problem of climate change, though they have few plans to do much about it (on this issue, the Republicans almost literally reside on a different planet). Meanwhile the Republicans’ reflex toward tribalism and division has the potential to turn social relations between America’s historically dominant European descendants and the nation’s various other ethnic groupings into a seething cauldron of hatred and violence.
But Democrats’ inability to provide a credible response to the zeitgeist of imperial decline could play into electoral defeat or failure either this time around or next. Trump offers a politics of isolationism and the image of the Strong Man, which may better fit the spirit of the times. True, any intention to “Make America Great Again”—if that means restoring a global empire that always gets its way, and whose economy is always growing, offering glittery gadgets for all—is utterly futile, but at least it acknowledges what so many sense in their gut: America isn’t what it used to be, and things are unraveling fast.
Troublingly, when empires rot the result is sometimes a huge increase in violence—war and revolution. The decline of the British Empire was the backdrop for World War I, which led to an even bloodier reprise a couple of decades later. Today the foreign policy establishment in Washington appears eager to pick a fight with Russia, and Hillary Clinton has a track record of dangerous interventionism (she’s won the endorsement of neoconservative hawks—both Republican and Democrat—who pushed for the Iraq invasion of 2003). Trump, for all his rhetorical belligerence, seems perhaps a bit less bellicose internationally, though his eventual foreign policies are currently about as easy to read as a Rorschach ink blot.
Russia’s Vladimir Putin is playing a peculiar role in the current contest. Trump and Putin have publicly complimented one another (one can only speculate as to the motives on both sides), while Hillary Clinton hews closely to the neocon-formulated State Department line that Putin is a dangerous strongman who threatens his neighbors. In fact, it is the US and NATO that have surrounded Russia with advanced weapons, reneged on agreements, and instigated regime change in Ukraine.
The Western powers’ ongoing provocation and demonization of Russia is pushing the world closer perhaps to nuclear war than was the case even during some decades of the Cold War. Against this frightening backdrop Trump has proposed (perhaps jokingly) that Russia hack Clinton’s emails. For her part, Clinton gives no indication that she will ratchet down the anti-Putin rhetoric; just the opposite appears to be in store—both during the campaign and the next four crucial years, when we are likely to face another (perhaps much worse) financial crisis along with escalating international tensions.
Could “we the people” handle a bit more of the truth? One would certainly like to think so. As it is, the US and the rest of the world appear to be sleepwalking into history’s greatest shitstorm (a somewhat more geeky and less scatological way to describe it would be as the mother of all Dragon Kings). Regardless how we address the challenges of climate change, resource depletion, overpopulation, debt deflation, species extinctions, ocean death, and on and on, we’re in for one hell of a century. It’s simply too late for a soft landing.
I’d certainly prefer that we head into the grinder holding hands and singing “kumbaya” rather than with knives at each other’s throats. But better still would be avoiding the worst of the worst. Doing so would require our leaders to publicly acknowledge that a prolonged shrinkage of the economy is a done deal. From that initial recognition might follow a train of possible goals and strategies, including planned population decline, economic localization, the formation of cooperatives to replace corporations, and the abandonment of consumerism. Global efforts at resource conservation and climate mitigation could avert pointless wars.
But none of that was discussed at the conventions. No, America won’t be “Great” again, in the way Republicans are being encouraged to envision greatness. And no, we can’t have a future in which everyone is guaranteed a life that, in material respects, echoes TV situation comedies of the 1960s, regardless of race, religion, or sexual orientation.
Bernie Sanders offered the best climate policies of any of the pre-convention candidates, but even he shied away from describing what’s really at stake. The times call for a candidate more in the mold of Winston Churchill, who famously promised only “blood, toil, tears, and sweat” in enlisting his people in a great, protracted struggle in which all would be called upon to work tirelessly and set aside personal wants and expectations. The candidates we have instead bode ill for the immediate future. Given the absence of helpful leadership at the national level, our main opportunity for effective preparation and response to the wolf at our doorstep appears to lie in local community resilience building.
It’s the truth. Can you handle it?
63 Comments on "Heinberg: You Can’t Handle the Truth!"
John Kintree on Tue, 2nd Aug 2016 4:04 pm
Hmmm, local community resilience building.
A few years ago, the Transition Towns Movement was hyped as doing that. Not much news about it these days.
Plantagenet on Tue, 2nd Aug 2016 4:06 pm
One of Heinberg’s better editorials. However, his wish for more “truth” and his endorsement of the D party are in conflict. Hillary is a paranoid liar who subverted the security system at the State Department in an attempt to avoid complying with the FOIA. Hillary hasn’t held a press conference in 250 days…….Hillary gave a speech at the DNC convention that was so devoid of meaning that the NY Times fact checker said he couldn’t fact checker because it was all empty platitudes. Thats not truther-telling. Thats the EXACT OPPOSITE of what Heinberg says he wants.
I think Heinberg is the one who can’t handle the truth.
Cheer!
Apneaman on Tue, 2nd Aug 2016 4:55 pm
Planty, none of that shit you said is irrelevant. The system is rotten from top to bottom and cannot be saved. The managers/personalities of the day do not matter. You know what happens when foundations crumble? Like so many things we once thought were permanent, we are now simply waiting for their inevitable collapse to arrive.
Climate Change Is Hell on Alaska’s Formerly Frozen Highways
A critical artery is threatened by thawing permafrost.
“In recent years, though, a new sight has been drawing motorists’ attention, too, one they can spot just a few feet from their cars’ tires. Bumps and cracks have scarred huge swathes of the road, with some fissures so deep a grown man can jump in and walk through them. Scientists say they’re the crystal-clear manifestation that permafrost — slabs of ice and sediment just beneath the Earth’s surface in colder climes — is thawing as global temperatures keep rising.
In some parts of the 1,387-mile (2,232 kilometer) highway, the shifting is so pronounced, it has buckled parts of the asphalt. Caution flags warn drivers to slow down, while engineers are hard at work concocting seemingly improbable solutions: inserting plastic cooling tubes or insulation sheets, using lighter-colored asphalt or adding layers of soccer-ball sized rocks — fixes that are financially and logistically daunting.”
“Judy Gagnon, a 67-year-old trucker, has driven Canada’s roads since the early 1970s and said she’s seeing “more pieces fall apart.” Some damage is regular wear and tear, but “they are having trouble maintaining the road bed, because you have the permafrost underneath, and then you have it melting and it’s sinking.””
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2016-08-02/the-alaskan-highway-is-literally-melting
Apneaman on Tue, 2nd Aug 2016 4:56 pm
Sorry, I meant “all” of that shit you said.
Anonymous on Tue, 2nd Aug 2016 5:12 pm
Henberg says
Now, I’m not proposing that the two parties are equivalent. There are some substantive differences between them.
I was with him till I got that line. Mr Heinberg is an intelligent man, but sometimes I have to wonder when he says things like this. I think I know what the problem is. His approach is from a resource\depletion pov, that of a researcher, a scientist even. A valid pov of course, but hes not really attuned to the reality of what the amerikan empire really is. Well, maybe hes not that blind, this article is one of the most overtly political I think Ive ever seen from him.
Except for the that rather large head-scratcher about their being ‘differences’ between the red&blue team, he almost sounds like Paul Craig Roberts here…
A much more direct, and accurate, perspective here:
American Elections: Weapons of Mass Distraction
http://www.counterpunch.org/2016/08/02/american-elections-weapons-of-mass-distraction/
canabuck on Tue, 2nd Aug 2016 5:19 pm
“community” and “resilience” will come under a Trump presidency. The country will unite against the islamic extremist terrorists, and become an “America First” nation. If economic decline happens, being united and unselfish and generous to our neighbors would be the best way to enter the future. All of these need to be shown by our leaders — starting with Trump.
Apneaman on Tue, 2nd Aug 2016 5:39 pm
Yeah, Trump, like all born and raised 1%ers, has such a great record being of unselfish and generous. Everyone knows that’s how one makes a billion dollars in this world.
JuanP on Tue, 2nd Aug 2016 6:22 pm
I disagree with Heinberg’s analysis of the Democratic Party. I don’t see any idealism in the Dems. I think he is biased in favor of them. I was until this election mostly a Dem leaning social liberal, though I am also fiscally conservative because I believe we should live within our means. I have always despised the Repubs positions on gays and other such social issues. I never thought I would prefer a Repub candidate over a Dem one, but I can’t swallow Hillary and I back Trump despite his racist comments because for me the most important issue is the USA’s foreign policy. I am all for isolationism, making peace with Russia and China, ending the illegal wars and occupations, bringing the troops home, closing the military bases abroad, and focusing on our domestic problems in the USA. Hillary is a psychopathic, warmongering bitch so I support Trump.
That cartoon of Putin and Trump is very funny!
I agree that the only possible solutions are local ones. At the national and global levels there are no solutions possible. Prepping is always a localized affair and I am a prepper, so that is where my personal focus lies.
This year the five families included in my prepping arrangements will be getting identical Omega juicers, Vitamix blenders, Excalibur dehydrators, and Taurus revolvers for Christmas, so we can save them for parts as they break down in the future. I have bought five of each. The container is almost full and it is time to send it home!
Apneaman on Tue, 2nd Aug 2016 6:33 pm
Jaun, I like Orlov’s suggestion for eligible voters.
Furious Sheep
http://cluborlov.blogspot.ca/2016/08/furious-sheep.html
Cloud9 on Tue, 2nd Aug 2016 6:37 pm
Unfortunately tribalism is the default position for of failed societies.
Harquebus on Tue, 2nd Aug 2016 6:48 pm
Heinberg’s only fault is his belief in solar and wind. Solar and wind energy collectors are energy sinks and only add to our problems.
Go Speed Racer on Tue, 2nd Aug 2016 8:17 pm
Hand out free guns and ammunition to the poor.
They will all shoot each other.
Problem solved.
makati1 on Tue, 2nd Aug 2016 8:35 pm
All of the above comments are good and I agree with most. We all have preferences and Heinberg is no exception. I second Harquebus’ comment that wind and solar are not net energy sources.
Heinberg dodges the fact that the same pressure is being placed on the Chinese as on Russia. I wonder why there is no comment about China in his article? I would say that China has bigger ‘sticks’ than Russia to beat down the Empire, outside of war. China still supplies the Empire with most of it’s everyday needs and holds about $2,000,000,000,000. in US debt.
“… the US and the rest of the world appear to be sleepwalking into history’s greatest shitstorm.” I think that about sums it up.
Roger on Tue, 2nd Aug 2016 8:50 pm
“We extracted non-renewable fossil fuels using the low-hanging fruit principle, so that just about all the affordable petroleum (which is the basis for nearly all transport) has already been found and most of has already been burned. Since we can’t afford most of the oil that’s left (either in terms of the required financial investment or the energy required to extract and refine it), the petroleum industry is in the process of going bankrupt. ”
Really? On what planet does scarcity of a vital resource drive its producers to bankruptcy? (I’m well aware of the current oil bust; are you aware of the implications that Saudia Arabia is producing flat out … no more spare capacity with demand rising 1 MM/bbl per day each year).
“There are alternative energy sources, but transitioning to them will require not just building an enormous number of wind turbines and solar panels, but replacing most of the world’s energy-using infrastructure.”
Really? If you think FF’s are “unaffordable” wait until you get your “all solar/wind” (unsubsized) electric bill.
Mr. Heinberg is clueless, and seems to believe the government (i.e., the democrats) can mandate a solution to all our problems. I believe they capped gasoline prices in Hawaii a while back…didn’t work out.
Perhaps he should move to Venezuela and see his socialist paradise in practice.
Truth Had A Liberal Bias on Tue, 2nd Aug 2016 9:13 pm
I hope some ex marines set up a defensive position in depth with interlocking arcs of fire and start sniping at cops. That’d be a great thing to see on the news loop!
Cloud9 on Tue, 2nd Aug 2016 9:17 pm
If you want to snipe at cops, cut their funding.
Davy on Tue, 2nd Aug 2016 9:18 pm
The best option may just be the worst. I am not advocating this I am only venturing a point. We are so far into bad in every area that the only choice and best choice is to call in airstrikes on our own positions. Let’s quit our whining, and pretending there are answers. There are none. Let’s let this sucker blow and blow hard. Isn’t this what we are doing anyway? Yes. There are no actions to change anything. There is just talk and pretending. This is at all levels. It is hopeless and to pretend otherwise is sick. Sure we as individuals and locals can do something but above that it is hopless.
JuanP on Tue, 2nd Aug 2016 9:31 pm
Roger “On what planet does scarcity of a vital resource drive its producers to bankruptcy?”
On a planet in which the economy can’t afford to cover the costs of exploration, extraction, refining, and distribution of an energy source that has constantly increasing economic and energetic costs. Most of the oil we still have on this planet will remain where it is because it simply makes no sense to extract it. We will go back to wind, sunlight, and gravity using photosynthesis, muscle power, and simple mechanical contraptions, if we are lucky enough to survive as a species, which seems increasingly unlikely.
Roger on Tue, 2nd Aug 2016 9:53 pm
JuanP,
“On a planet in which the economy can’t afford to cover the costs of exploration, extraction, refining, and distribution of an energy source that has constantly increasing economic and energetic costs.”
First, “the economy” doesn’t buy anything. People do. And here’s a news flash, (I’d guess) most people on this planet already cannot afford oil and its byproducts. As the price of oil increases, what they won’t be able to afford is a $5 cup of coffee from Starbucks or a $1 bottle of water. However, rather than biking 10 miles to work, they will gladly pay $10 for a gallon of gas…if they can get it. The oil companies will be smaller no doubt, but quite profitable.
“Most of the oil we still have on this planet will remain where it is because it simply makes no sense to extract it. We will go back to wind, sunlight, and gravity using photosynthesis, muscle power, and simple mechanical contraptions, if we are lucky enough to survive as a species, which seems increasingly unlikely.”
Agreed.
Truth Had A Liberal Bias on Tue, 2nd Aug 2016 10:56 pm
It has been shown that cops compensate for budget cuts by stealing from people.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civil_forfeiture_in_the_United_States
I think it be far more interesting if a bunch of war heros went on a rampage. That get my tv ratings.
Keith McClary on Wed, 3rd Aug 2016 1:18 am
“But ours is the first global, fossil-fueled civilization”
And the last. There won’t be another for eons.
Brat on Wed, 3rd Aug 2016 3:03 am
Typing from a breakfast table in a Gothenburg hotel, a few days before I return to Holland and my IP-perma ban and you will be rid of me for ever or st least until the next vacation.lol
Heinberg is a one-trick pony, who in 2016, with an oilprice approaching $40,- still tries to explain social developments from his peak-oil narrative. Ten years ago I read his “The party is over” in the train commuting between Leiden and Amersfoort in the Netherlands and fell for it. According to his prediction we should be all queing up in line for the petrol station by now. Nothing of the sort has happened or will happen any time soon, unless war or financial collapse kicks in. I am still a fan of Heinberg, provided he sticks to his violin and stays away from a wordprocessor.
Scanning his article:
Yes the Reps are the party of fear and fury, but the Dems do not represent any hope, but instead Gimme Dat, empire, war with Russia and in the end represent the interests of the… uhhh…. let’s call them bankers only.
This is not a battle between Trump and Clinton, but instead a titanic battle between Trump on the one hand and the complete AngloZionist establishment plus media on the other (poor Clit Clinton drew a crowd yesterday of merely 100 people).
This battle has nothing to do with depleting fossil fuel but with demographics only. Or to use the bombshell word: race. Race. RACE. It doesn’t mean that resource depletion, soil erosion and climate change are irrelevant problems, but I deny that they play a role in the 2016 election circus.
2016 is a battle about the future of America. On the toddler level the balance meanwhile is 50/50. As a consequence European America is in absolute panic mode and can no longer be controlled with verbal ammo like hate, xenophobic, sexist, antisemitic, racist and the rest of the smear words. And they should be in panic. For the first time in a century, Trump represents the gravest threat against the Zionist controlled deep state. The 2016 election is about the question whether the US will remain a white majority country for the foreseable future or not.
I do not know if he will prevail. I predicted that Brexit would not happen, but fortunately I was wrong and it did happen (well, at least the vote, real implementation is a completely different matter altogether and the British elite is in no hurry whatsoever and could very well intend to sabotage it). I hope Trump will, because it would stave off a disastrous confrontation with Russia/China, bring the chance of a necessary liquidation of NATO and force the lazy colonized Europeans to grow a pair and rearm.
Reading on:
“Meanwhile the Republicans’ reflex toward tribalism and division has the potential to turn social relations between America’s historically dominant European descendants and the nation’s various other ethnic groupings into a seething cauldron of hatred and violence.”
Ok, so Heinberg does have a grasp of what is going on. And this indeed is what the future of America is really about: a descend into ethnic rivalry and in the end civil war and secession. And grinning Europeans standing by, ready to give a helping hand and get rid of the colonial overlord in the process.
The idea to “make America great again” is ridiculous in the current demographic situation. In reality America will soon be smaller again, like before 1820, losing large territories to the Mexicans and with most of the east coast a new Brasil and a perhaps landlocked flyover country as the fiddle and banjo confederate republic, run by president Alex Jones, part of a global Eurosphere commonwealth.
1945 reversed.
Manifest destiny reversed.
1776 reversed.
America will always be a colony, either European or Zionist.
Take your pick America.
JuanP on Wed, 3rd Aug 2016 6:23 am
Roger, I agree that Starbucks coffee and bottled water will become a thing of the past, too. I think it is already happening. I stopped drinking coffee and bottled water already. Moving closer to work makes sense, too. A shorter commute is a blessing in many ways.
Cloud9 on Wed, 3rd Aug 2016 7:35 am
Heinberg has a liberal bias. He hopes that government can lead us through the collapse. Unfortunately history has shown that what usually happens is the political structure fractures and is replaced with a radical regime that tends to slaughter its opposition. The harsh truth is that there is not enough for the world to attain a first world life style. People are going to be pushed away from the table. The most fundamental social unit is the family. Families are generally defined by race and ethnicity. Race and ethnicity will be the fault lines along which the current social order will fracture. Our future is one of extreme violence punctuated by ethnic cleansing and genocide. It may proceed relatively slowly like it has in some other failed states like Venezuela or it may proceed rapidly as it did in Rwanda and Cambodia. In the short term expect crime, especially property crimes to go up. We were burglarized just yesterday.
shortonoil on Wed, 3rd Aug 2016 7:56 am
“Really? On what planet does scarcity of a vital resource drive its producers to bankruptcy? “
Presently its called planet Earth. It happens when the price falls low enough that producers can no longer make money producing oil. That is presently happening because the price is no longer high enough to allow producers to replace the reserves that they are exacting. In the extractive resource industry that, by definition, means that they are going out of business.
Of course this has all to do with energy, not barrels. It is the energy delivered from a barrel that determines its price, not the size of the barrel. A barrel with 42 gallons, as opposed to one with 52, will bring the same price in the market if can deliver the same amount of energy. Consumers buy energy; they want to get from point A to point B. The only ones interested in barrels are the oil companies that sell oil by the barrel. Unfortunately, the energy delivered from a barrel of oil is going down, and so is its price.
http://www.thehillsgroup.org/depletion2_022.htm
This ongoing state of declining price is very bad; particularly for the nations that depend primarily on the sale of oil to support their economies. Venezuela comes to mind almost immediately. Saudi Arabia with 28 million people, who are living on a sand dune, will find life very difficult when oil can no longer pay for the food that keeps them alive. When their societies start coming apart from civil unrest they will stop producing oil. That is when the rest of the world will really start to take notice.
Pretending that oil is gong to be around for much longer to power our civilization is not really a very good Plan B. It is similar to standing on the beach waiting for the tidal wave to arrive. It may be an alternative for those who have just recently arrived, but for the rest of the permanent residents of planet Earth it might be a good idea if they start working on something a little more substantial.
http://www.thehillsgroup.org/
shortonoil on Wed, 3rd Aug 2016 8:07 am
“As the price of oil increases, what they won’t be able to afford is a $5 cup of coffee from Starbucks or a $1 bottle of water. However, rather than biking 10 miles to work, they will gladly pay $10 for a gallon of gas…if they can get it. The oil companies will be smaller no doubt, but quite profitable. “
The price does not have to go up to stop the consumption of oil. Incomes can go down, and that is exactly what is happening. You apparently live in the LA LA Land called the United States where its reserve currency has insulated you from what’s happening in the rest of the world. With US sovereign debt scheduled to reach $20 trillion by the next presidential election, that is not a very good Plan B either.
joe on Wed, 3rd Aug 2016 8:53 am
Heinbergs audience is not ready to hear that Reps and Dems are secretly the same party, and that the environmental shit is about to hit the fan. The ice caps are melting away fast now, global records are broken, and every year the water pools higher and higher, Cat5 hurricanes coming to a tv near you! How long will your house stand when Americas breadbasket pumps the polluted water reserves dry? Surely fracking can cheaply replace Russian gas supply but how will you get food when all of Americas docks are nuked? Truth is, every country relies on the the peace of the other. Our politicans are not acting rationally any more. How long will Europe be at peace? Maybe the neo-cons thinks they can have a blood orgy in a far away country again, make us all feel the freedom loving greatness of America when we bomb stupid french frogs when they one day grow a spine and try to drive Eurisis into some coral in some corner of Europe. But thats outdated logic, 9-11 should have taught us that in this world, nobody is immune. We all will sink together.
makati1 on Wed, 3rd Aug 2016 9:20 am
joe, You are correct. “Maybe the neo-con think they can have a blood orgy in a far away country again.”
The Us is 15-20 minutes from Moscow by missile. The oceans are not a moat anymore. The neo-cons ARE insane. And, yes, we will ALL sink together or die of radiation cancers together. Which will it be, or both?
Dredd on Wed, 3rd Aug 2016 9:27 am
Yep.
Famous last words: “what problems?”
onlooker on Wed, 3rd Aug 2016 3:37 pm
You guys said it well. Humans cannot handle inconvenient uncomfortable truths very well. So how the HELL can we handle the truth that EVERYTHING IS GOING TO HELL IN A HAND BASKET. No we sure as heck cannot handle that. And so of course we deceive others and deceive ourselves. We are so far into Overshoot and the whole Systems is going to collapse and no force on Earth can stop that from happening now. I doubt we will going slowly and quietly into the night though.
Survivalist on Wed, 3rd Aug 2016 5:44 pm
https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/canadian-outdoor-survival/id1073398501?mt=2
I found a Canuck with an interesting survival podcast.
Survivalist on Wed, 3rd Aug 2016 5:46 pm
And here it is if you don’t like iTunes
http://canadiansurvival.info/podcast/
Good info to know
Roger on Wed, 3rd Aug 2016 9:25 pm
Shortonoil,
“Presently its called planet Earth. It happens when the price falls low enough that producers can no longer make money producing oil. That is presently happening because the price is no longer high enough to allow producers to replace the reserves that they are exacting. In the extractive resource industry that, by definition, means that they are going out of business.”
It’s not the first time this has happened…though the worst I’ve seen in my 30 years. Oil is a cyclical business…boom and bust. Always has been. That changes though, when JonnQPublic realizes peak oil is in the rear view mirror…no way but up then.
“Of course this has all to do with energy, not barrels. It is the energy delivered from a barrel that determines its price, not the size of the barrel. A barrel with 42 gallons, as opposed to one with 52, will bring the same price in the market if can deliver the same amount of energy.”
Sir, I sell oil every day, and can assure you it’s priced in barrels (42 gals; 52 gals is a “drum”; generally finished products are sold in that quantity; e.g. synthetic oil). Granted there are “gravity” adjustments and “posted” prices…but these are relics of the industry’s evolution–and are not indicative of energy content.
“Consumers buy energy; they want to get from point A to point B. The only ones interested in barrels are the oil companies that sell oil by the barrel. Unfortunately, the energy delivered from a barrel of oil is going down, and so is its price.”
Wrong. For the most part, consumers buy “gasoline”…and are clueless about the relation between a barrel of oil and how, or how much, gasoline it produces (not to mention the thousands of other vital products derived from said barrel). You are correct (though it seems to contradict your earlier statement?) that oil is sold in barrels. With respect to “energy delivered” going down (EROEI), that is an unavoidable consequence of peak oil. However, the energy “contained” in a barrel of oil is unchanged, for a given gravity.
“…..When (Saudia Arabia and Venezuela) start coming apart from civil unrest they will stop producing oil. That is when the rest of the world will really start to take notice.”
Agreed. Venezuela is in progress, and should be noticeable to the oil market by year end. When SA stops “exporting” (long before production ceases) oil…well, I don’t even want to go there.
“Pretending that oil is gong to be around for much longer to power our civilization is not really a very good Plan B. It is similar to standing on the beach waiting for the tidal wave to arrive. It may be an alternative for those who have just recently arrived, but for the rest of the permanent residents of planet Earth it might be a good idea if they start working on something a little more substantial.”
Agreed. Hopefully there’s something more than electric cars, windmills, and solar power…something able to make a substantial impact within the next five years.
Roger on Wed, 3rd Aug 2016 9:44 pm
Shortonoil,
“The price does not have to go up to stop the consumption of oil. Incomes can go down, and that is exactly what is happening. You apparently live in the LA LA Land called the United States where its reserve currency has insulated you from what’s happening in the rest of the world. With US sovereign debt scheduled to reach $20 trillion by the next presidential election, that is not a very good Plan B either.”
Grab a clue–in real (inflation adjusted) dollars, incomes have been going down in the US for a very long time. The standard of living is dropping–even with the added “reserve currency” benefit, which I don’t dispute. No doubt, income has been falling world wide for many years.
Nonetheless, oil demand during this time has been rising at a very steady rate of 1 MM bbl/d each year. So, I don’t see the coorlation on a macro scale….individual cutbacks (e.g., as by buying a more fuel efficient car; or simply using less due to budget constraints) have been offset by a growing population of consumers.
Brat on Thu, 4th Aug 2016 12:10 am
DNC 2016, retired general Allen:
https://youtu.be/gC_9lULJnCg
The Dems are the war party, no doubt about that. Behind him people from all corners of the globe to illustrate what the US intentions are: the entire world under their control, “the greatest country on earth”. This parvenu and global terrorist is not going to stop until it has destroyed all its “enemies” and erased all borders, destroying European civilization in the proces. Americans are the new Bolsheviks.
The only enemy he calls by name is ISIS, a creation nota bene of the Americans themselves that went astray. But he also means Russia and China.
It is time to deep six this monster. Europe, Russia, China and constitutionalist America should be able to take drag this pathetic clown to the coast line and hold it under water until it no longer moves. And expose what is has done over the past century.
War is coming between Eurasia and Anglosphere. Let’s ensure that Brexit will be implemented so the English boat is pushed away from Eurasia and the battle line is clearly demarcated.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fall_of_Saigon#/media/File:Saigon-hubert-van-es.jpg
Brat on Thu, 4th Aug 2016 1:34 am
The awaness of the AngloZionist US deep state, the unelectable secret government is growing, thanks to the internet:
https://www.lewrockwell.com/2016/08/no_author/vote-meaningless/
This the “ruthless conspiracy” JFK was talking about and got him killed, this was what Nixon and Billy Graham were talking about in their recorded conversation. And this is what Trump is fighting.
It is the combined force of the MSM, Fed, thinktanks, Hollywood, Wallstreet,mNATO. The CFR is the real representation of the “secret” government. Forget the presidency or Congress… meaningless institutions. Forget democracy, which is merely a competition between empty slogans. The US is just as democratic as North-Korea.
But nobody dares to mention who really controls the secret government.
theedrich on Thu, 4th Aug 2016 3:18 am
Plantagenet, you are on target. Forget the disturbed man-ape from Burnaby, B.C. and his Googlemania. The Demonic Party is counting on war to boost the incomes of its donors and make the masses forget their economic woes. Heinberg, like many wishdreamers, just wants us all to go quietly, hand-in-hand to our genosuicide (heading “into the grinder holding hands and singing ‘kumbaya’ rather than with knives at each other’s throats”). In his version, all higher life will embrace its own extinction with heartwarming, interracially miscegenating tenderness.
Given the synagogic control of the world economy and the crepuscular creature on the U.S. throne, things do not bode well for Trump or even the RINOs. The economic and propaganda power of the anti-European nihilists is just too great. The masses themselves could not care less how much corruption and criminality is perpetrated by the Clintonians or the Demonics, just so long as they continue to get their own bread and circuses from D.C. gods for the next few months. Twenty trillion dollars of national debt exceeds the power of the popular mind to grasp, and therefore does not exist in the political realm. The U.S. creation of chaos in Allahland and the Ukraine happened over a month ago, and therefore is “old news,” of no account in the race for the White House. And anyway, “what difference does it make?”
The Mohammedans that Ø is importing in his hatred of Whites will probably wait until after the 2016 election to unleash their mayhem. After all, they wouldn’t want to jeopardize their welcome in the self-exterminating U.S. And the aim of the murderess (the “Flying Reptile” in Kunstler’s words) is to keep the masses comatose until she assumes military control.
But “building bridges” and importing the entire non-White Third World into America and Europe is not going to avert the collapse envisioned in “The Limits to Growth” or in Joseph Tainter’s The Collapse of Complex Societies. Nonetheless, that collapse will not be mentioned until after it has happened. Because the masses (and especially their rulers) cannot handle the truth.
onlooker on Thu, 4th Aug 2016 4:50 am
Very well said Brat and oh so true. Bildenberg group also comes to mind. Here is a link for those who have not heard that eerily direct and true speech by JFK https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RhkjYJAHCjM
Alpine Goat on Thu, 4th Aug 2016 8:26 am
Chinese defense minister prepares population for general mobilisation over South China Sea:
http://www.janes.com/article/62765/china-s-defence-minister-calls-for-preparedness-for-possible-war-at-sea
Expect China to declare souvereignty over entire SCS.
Anglos should understand that their navies are a relic from the 20th century and no match for hyper-sonic missiles.
GregT on Thu, 4th Aug 2016 9:13 am
Very good comment Brat. Good to see that somebody else has been paying attention. AIPAC also deserves at least some recognition.
makati1 on Thu, 4th Aug 2016 9:31 am
AG, I agree. Being a neighbor of China and following the events in the S.C.S. closely, I doubt that The Us would be foolish enough to start something there. Even the Us military knows that it would likely lose any assets that are in that rocky bathtub, should hostilities occur. Anything between China and Guam is less than 15 minutes by missile and the Chinese have already proven that they can hit Guam anytime they choose. The ability to take out a carrier is also admitted by the Us navy commanders and will keep them far to the East of the Philippines in the event of hostilities.
The next few years should prove interesting in so very many ways.
Boat on Thu, 4th Aug 2016 10:57 am
mak,
Before war there will be heavy sanctions against China by the free world. Every country will have to pick a side.
Apneaman on Thu, 4th Aug 2016 12:16 pm
Boat, “sanctions” and “free world” in the same sentence and you wonder why people call you an idjit?
Boat, where in the galaxy is this “free world” situated?
BTW, sanctions are an act of war, it’s just that y’all retard mericans have never went without so you do not get it. Boat, what if I was armed to the teeth and put a sanction on your house that stated nothing over 800 calories per person per day could enter?
What are you going to do about it pussy?
GregT on Thu, 4th Aug 2016 2:01 pm
“Before war there will be heavy sanctions against China by the free world.”
Free world? Yup, truly an idjit. As dumb as they come.
makati1 on Thu, 4th Aug 2016 5:51 pm
Boat, have you read the labels on the stuff you buy that says where it comes from? Not to mention that it supplies a lot of the components in the stuff assembled elsewhere. Maybe you should.
Have you considered that China still holds about $2,000,000,000,000.00 of US debt that it can use to crash the Us economy at any time?
Have you checked to see how much China exports to that “Free World” and how sanctions will cripple any country that tries it with China? Ask Europe who got hurt the most with the Russian sanctions? Hint: NOT Russia.
Do you think, Boat? It does not appear that you do.
Boat on Thu, 4th Aug 2016 6:53 pm
mak,
Russia is like a small fly in the ointment. Even S Korea has a larger economy. Three US states have larger economies. Europe has 5 countries with larger economies. The only reason they make the news, Putin is an idiot. Much like Trump.
JuanP on Thu, 4th Aug 2016 7:29 pm
Boat, Russia has enough nuclear weapons to completely fry every state in the union and make the whole world uninhabitable. That small fly could very easily fry your ass and your whole country! They also have the capability to domestically source all their needs. Russia could live very well if the rest of the world collapsed today. Russians would just need to learn how to live without new BMWs and Mercedes. They have more water, food, and energy than they need. And Russia is also the biggest country in the world by far. The USA doesn’t even come close. If Russia is a small fly then the USA is a microscopic worm.
Boat on Thu, 4th Aug 2016 10:00 pm
JuanP,
If I remember correctly the average Russian makes about $6,700. Since sanctions they have lost about $700 in buying power due to a recession, devalued currancy and drop in oil prices. Google it. Their nukes haven’t done much for the population. You should move there and enjoy that bountiful life.
makati1 on Thu, 4th Aug 2016 10:20 pm
Boat. what does an “economy” mean when the “smaller one” can wipe out the world in an hour? Your view of the world is so twisted it is not even funny.
What does income mean if it supplies all you NEED? Maybe they cannot afford a new car every 3 years or have a 72″ TV or all the other i toys Americans cannot live without, but they have culture, unlimited resources, family and they support their country and leaders. Keep in mind that THEY won the 2nd world war, no matter what the propaganda in the West professes.
The important things in life do NOT have a price tag.
makati1 on Thu, 4th Aug 2016 10:26 pm
BTW: 2015 numbers…
“In the Russian Federation, the average household net-adjusted disposable income per capita is …USD 17,006 a year … less than the OECD average of … USD 29,016 … a year.”
That is more than I get from SS I and live quite well, thanks.
And:
“In Russia, 95% of adults aged 25-64 have completed upper secondary education, much higher than the OECD average of 76%”
“In general, Russians are less satisfied with their lives than the OECD average. When asked to rate their general satisfaction with life on a scale from 0 to 10, Russians gave it a 6.0 grade, lower than the OECD average of 6.5.”
But, who was asked? Feelings are not facts.