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Page added on June 11, 2015
Gazprom Seeks A Way Around Ukraine By 2019
Gazprom has vowed to entirely cut out Ukraine as a transit hub for natural gas exports to Europe.
The conflict with Ukraine has scrambled the longstanding energy relationship between Russia and Europe. The European Union imports around one-third of its natural gas from Russia, but having seen those flows cut off multiple times in the past, European officials are pushing to rid themselves of their dependence on Moscow. The violence in Ukraine solidified that motivation.
Russia is also unhappy with the arrangement. In an effort to separate gas exports to the EU (a critical business relationship that Moscow doesn’t want interrupted) from its ongoing conflict with Kiev (a geostrategic priority), Russia has a great incentive to cut out Ukraine. About half of Russia’s gas exports to Europe must travel through Ukraine.
But that could change within the next four years, if Gazprom gets its way. “We will not export gas via Ukraine after 2019. The customers will get gas at (newly) agreed delivery points,” Gazprom’s Deputy CEO Alexander Medvedev said on June 9.
However, that would require major investments in new infrastructure in order to successfully work around Ukraine. Medvedev is pressing Europe to hurry up and decide on how and where future Russian gas will enter Europe.
Russia has proposed a new pipeline network called “Turkish Stream” that would run through Turkey to the border with Greece.
Some European countries are open to that plan, but others are throwing their weight behind an alternative route. The Trans-Anatolian Pipeline (TANAP) will run from Azerbaijan through Turkey, and connect with the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP), which will pick up at the Greek-Turkish border and run gas through southern Europe to Italy. Both pipelines are backed by a consortium of private international oil companies as well as the state-owned oil company in Azerbaijan.
To make matters more complicated, the European Union is pursuing an antitrust case against Gazprom, alleging that the Russian company charges different rates to different EU member states, with prices that vary depending on their cooperation with Russia on unrelated political matters. The EU also argues that Gazprom illegally seeks to block the resale of natural gas between EU countries in an effort to maintain its grip, particularly over certain Eastern European countries, such as Ukraine.
The EU has given Gazprom until September to respond to the antitrust charges.
The confrontation between European regulators and Gazprom underscores the animosity between Russia and Europe, and also raises questions about how Gazprom plans on convincing Europe to opt for its pipeline alternative, rather than the TANAP-TAP route.
Moreover, the EU has agreed to work towards creating an “energy union,” which seeks “uninterrupted energy supplies” that European officials think is only obtainable through a common approach. In other words, the energy union is a direct response to Gazprom’s strategy of picking off separate EU members one by one, sealing bilateral deals with unique terms and prices. Brussels sees this as a threat, and while much of its motivation for the energy union is driven by climate objectives, the idea only got off the ground after the Ukraine crisis in 2014.
The EU faces its own challenges. For example, it is far from clear whether Eastern European countries currently paying discounted rates for gas will prefer a collective approach, which could end their pricing arrangements. But it is also hard to see how Gazprom will be able to edge out the TANAP-TAP network.
And if Russia’s “Turkish Stream” Pipeline cannot be constructed, Russia will have a very difficult time in entirely cutting out Ukraine from natural gas exports in a few short years.
For now, tension between Russia and the EU won’t go away, despite their strong commercial ties. The G7 nations just reaffirmed their support for sanctions on Russia as a result of the Ukraine conflict. And the antitrust case against Gazprom could force the dispute over natural gas pricing to a head in the relatively near future.
19 Comments on "Gazprom Seeks A Way Around Ukraine By 2019"
joe on Thu, 11th Jun 2015 4:35 pm
One of the murkiest most byzantine issues in world affairs is energy supplies to Europe. Anyone with eyes knows that the EU funded an ultra nationalist attempted coup in Ukraine, they tried it peacefully in terms Orange revolution, then they were forced to provoke Russia, Russia took the bait because, well, who knows. EU policy is difficult, Europe is becoming about 2/3rd afro-asiatic in outlook, it’s more or less abandoned it’s ideas of itself as being ‘civilised’ northern barbarians, it’s embracing instead a globalist agenda and European elites are revelling in its liberalism. Europe’s turning into a place where the most base human selfish sentiments are causing immense hubris. This is seen in energy policy as an effort to mould energy sources as forcing Russian policy to cooperate with its border nations and weaken russia to allow EU nations to do more US bidding in the form of following NATO policy. The best recent example was how the lulled Gaddafi into a false sense of security before toppling him and causing Isis to emerge. This is how we manage our affairs now, stealth bomber diplomacy, the hard bit now though is when you kick a hornets nest, you better run. Russia will turn out the same way.
GregT on Thu, 11th Jun 2015 4:42 pm
“Anyone with eyes knows that the EU funded an ultra nationalist attempted coup in Ukraine,”
Seriously Joe? I hope your above mentioned “EU” was a typo.
Kenz300 on Thu, 11th Jun 2015 6:41 pm
The transition to safer, cleaner and cheaper alternative energy sources can not come fast enough.
Locally produced wind, solar, wave energy and geothermal is better for energy security and economic security.
Renewable energy targets quadrupled globally since 2005
http://www.biodieselmagazine.com/articles/416978/renewable-energy-targets-quadrupled-globally-since-2005
Ted Wilson on Thu, 11th Jun 2015 8:02 pm
EU needs Natgas to reduce Oil consumption. Its sad that Ukraine is cutoff from the network. This is a big loss for Ukraine as they will lose the transit fees. What did they gain by opposing Russia.
EU is not willing to take Ukraine into their union so fast. They have a long process and only after countries like Serbia, Bosnia, they can take Ukraine and this will take at least 5 years.
Makati1 on Thu, 11th Jun 2015 8:31 pm
Gazprom has several options and will move ahead with them. They will take the gas to the Greek border thru Turkey. Then it will pass thru Greece in a pipeline built by Gazprom and the Greek government. At that point the other EU countries that want to buy it will have to have their own pipelines. At least, that is where it stands today.
The EU is in a catch 22 thanks to the US bullying. They are told to ‘punish’ Russia but they need the Russian NG to keep their dying economy going. Not to mention their exports to Russia. The US is destroying the EU as part of their plan to weaken any possible opposition to their world domination dreams. For example:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-10/obama-destroying-europe-dragging-it-crusade-against-russia-former-french-pm-german-b
Makati1 on Thu, 11th Jun 2015 9:23 pm
For a look at the other side…
http://www.globalresearch.ca/vladimir-putin-the-deterioration-of-eu-russia-relations-causes-and-consequences-interview/5454889
VS
http://www.globalresearch.ca/washington-post-plays-ukraines-lapdog/5455141
And the beat goes on…
Makati1 on Thu, 11th Jun 2015 10:26 pm
Insanity or stupidity?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-11/americans-sign-petition-pre-emptive-nuclear-strike-against-russia
Davy on Fri, 12th Jun 2015 2:17 am
No doubt Mak, the filth in Washington is disgusting but I would not give Putin the time of day for being good or following good policy. He is a blue eyed devil that got to his position through deceit, theft, and lies. He is the probably the richest politician in the world if not the richest person with Russia being his fiefdom. You do not go from a lowly KGB agent to that level without participating in some bad doo doo.
Hitler and Stalin were considered eloquent by some in previous times. It is the most eloquent and captivating politicians that must be feared. They have the power to manipulated and gain more power. Individuals like Putin are corrupted by power, wealth, and prestige. Again what we are seeing in Washington is very bad and worrying consider the power projection of the US but please don’t try to tickle me with Putin.
Makati1 on Fri, 12th Jun 2015 3:35 am
Davy, is being bought into the leadership any better than by ‘deceit’? I don’t think so. And who said he came to power by deceit? The US MSM? I don’t think it matters how he got there, but what he is doing with that power.
It appears that he is now the most powerful person in the world and is still approved by the majority of Russians. That is just the opposite of our Prez who cannot even keep his lies straight and has become a joke outside the US and some places inside.
But, you can be as Russiphobic as you want. I don’t think he or the Russians give a damn…lol. That Americans are stupid enough to sign a petition for a preemptive nuclear strike says it all. Brainwashed…
Makati1 on Fri, 12th Jun 2015 3:52 am
Actually, if you want to talk about rich leaders, Queen Elizabeth is way above anyone else in the world. The old money wealthy do not advertise their net worth and it would be impossible to find out the total unless you were their accountant. Try to find out the total wealth of the Rothschilds, for instance.
“Today, the family empire is divided between direct descendants and outside shareholders, which is why – according to the Financial Times – it’s difficult to tell how wealthy the actual family is…. As a modern day an empire, the family’s total net worth and assets combined have been pegged in the $300 – $400 billion range.”
http://www.celebritynetworth.com/articles/entertainment-articles/how-rich-is-the-rothschild-family/
“The Rothschild family is estimated to be worth at least 500 trillion dollars today and some estimates over 900 trillion dollars.”
http://nexusnow.info/forum/showthread.php?10739-The-Rothschild-family-700-trillion-%28if-wealth-was-equal-everyone-would-be-worth-a-million%29
And on down into the rabbit hole of wealth and power…
Davy on Fri, 12th Jun 2015 7:32 am
OH, Mak, I absolutely love it when you feel compelled to answer my comments. It means I am getting through your agenda filters and upsetting your self made world view. The reason I am so far ahead of you Mak is I agree with you on the American establishment in Washington. I can make comments about the devil Putin in a balanced way. They are both evil. Putin is obviously a saint in your eyes as either Stalin or Hitler would be. If a personality fits into your agenda that person is a great person.
It does matter how Putin got to power Mak. He is a mafia Don robbing Russia with his cabal of oligarchs. He may be popular with Russians but he is getting that popularity at a high cost of likely having opposition eliminated, being militaristic, and selling out Russia to be the big world statesman. Putin is taking Russia down the wrong road that is little better than what is occurring in DC. Putin is just more eloquent and macho. When his only friend in Europe is Silvio Burlesconi that is saying something.
I laugh when I hear the US is bullying Europe against Russia. Russia scares the hell out of Europe. Europeans remembered WWII when Stalin sent his army into Europe and established his totalitarianism. You can rewrite some of WWII history in regards to the US fine but can you explain away Stalin and the next 40 years Makster?
Makati1 on Fri, 12th Jun 2015 9:54 pm
Davy, it only means that I am bored, not that you are changing anything. You should know that people in their old age don’t change much if at all. The groove is too deep. I always likes Asia and the other parts of the world since my teens although visiting them was not possible then. Now I live there.
I don’t care how Putin got in power. I only care what he does, and I hope he keeps thwarting all of the Empire’s plans. With China, he can stand up to the dying empire and perhaps hurt it where it counts. With China, it can badly wound the USD and take away the empire’s ability to wage war all over the world. We shall see.
Russia does not “scare the hell out of Europe”. I hear echos of the US MSM propaganda mill again. They may be afraid now, because US insanity is taking them to a war they don’t want, and they know that the Russian nukes are a lot closer to them than the US. But they need Russia more than they need the US these days. Until the US coup of the Ukraine, Russia was no threat to them. But then, you seem to be blind to most things that are anti-empire, no matter what part of the world it is.
Makati1 on Fri, 12th Jun 2015 9:57 pm
Davy, Stalin and the next 40 years was the cold war with the US … when Russia had to build an Empire to keep the US empire at bay. Nothing more. We are once again forcing Russia to defend itself … and that may not end so peacefully this time. It will be the US that collapses or pushes the red button. We shall see.
Davy on Sat, 13th Jun 2015 6:31 am
There you go again Makster rewriting world history just like Stalin would approve of.
chorniykorpus88 on Sat, 13th Jun 2015 9:01 am
Poor little RaSSia is being beat -up ”unfairly” for its attempts to forcibly rebuild the failed soviet bloody empire…yeah…”boo hoo” for Muscovy, and the KGB-midget Poutine…..
Makati1 on Sun, 14th Jun 2015 4:48 am
Davy, your problem is you have no idea of real world history, only the propaganda burned into your narrow, closed mind. But then, you are typical of most Americans these days. Bathed in BS 24/7/365 by your wonderful owners and soaking it in like sunshine. Too bad. There are a few others here who have the same deep indoctrination. It takes a real effort to admit it and look at the world thru the eyes of those outside the MSM Iron Curtain.
Davy on Sun, 14th Jun 2015 5:20 am
Mak, your problem is you have no idea of real world history, only your made up sci-fi inspired future of NUk death and destruction of America with the rising of the 1000 year Asian Reich. You have an agenda burned into you narrow, sick mind. But then, you are a typical anti-American propagandist these days. You bath in BS 24/7/356 by your wonderful owners and soaking it in like sunshine. Too bad. There are a few others here who have the same sick mind salivating over the death and destruction of America. It takes a real effort to admit is and look at reality instead of your own self-created delusional world inspired by a failed American life and powered by deep resentment and hatred.
Makati1 on Sun, 14th Jun 2015 8:42 am
Davy, your ignorance/brainwashing is showing once again. I have a better grasp of world history of the last 100 years than you do, it appears. Too bad.
Try spending some of your wasted ranting time and read some history NOT written by Americans. WW2 was about more than a few days in June where the West had to finally leave the UK and do something or the Russians would own Europe after they finished with the Germans. Had the Germans gotten the resources of west Russia, you would be speaking German now. Or, if you were on the West coast, maybe Japanese.
Davy on Sun, 14th Jun 2015 9:49 am
Mak, your ignorance/brainwashing is showing once again. I have a better grasp of world history of the last 100 years than you do, it appears. Too bad.
Try spending some of your wasted ranting time and read some history NOT written by goofball numb nutter anti-anything idiots.
WW2 was about more than a small brained tiered old man’s brain can fantasize about in his agenda world of anti-American propaganda. This worn out propaganda is mulled over and fantasized about in his cheap 10th floor apartment in the heart of a 12MIL people Manila slum.
You can rewrite history all you like but it just makes you look like the fool you are. I am all for wading through the BS of WWII history on all sides but not replacing it with your cheap pulp fiction.