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Page added on April 7, 2013
Decline And Fall Of The New Rome
Rampant inflation, caused by debasement of the currency, government corruption and nanny state corrective action that makes matters worse. Declining trade, caused by wars to control the empire, massive military over-reach and ever increasing spending on the military – funded by increases in taxation on the citizens, especially those least in a position to pay.
Sounds familiar? The above, paragraph describes not our present day society but that of the Roman Empire from the 3rd century onwards. However, one could be forgiven for thinking I was describing the faltering western economies of America, Japan and Europe.
The similarities between the declining ancient Roman empire and current Western empire are quite striking. Not only are the same mistakes being made by our rulers, but the symbolism and structure of our governments differs remarkably little from that of Rome. Just take a look at the White House, the US Senate building, the Bank of England etc – it’s no coincidence that they are all built in the Roman style.
Just as the Romans debased their silver denarius from 95% in the time of Augustus, by the end of the empire it was as low as 0.2% silver. Right now western governments are involved in a devaluation war, which ultimately will lead to hyper-inflation – just as it did throughout the Roman empire.
Attempts to sure-up the economy of the empire all failed – e.g. reforms by Constantine and Diocletian failed, just as the inept efforts of our current political class are failing pitifully.
For those that could afford gold coins instead of dealing in token coinage (i.e. debased silver coins) they had real buying power and the ability to fulfil their imperial tax obligations. Unfortunately the poorer citizens were often unable to pay their taxes, due to rampant inflation, which meant they had to forfeit their property instead.
Of course as the costs of running a huge military to control a vast and unruly empire increased so too did the taxes. Over time huge numbers became delinquents or just simply disappeared and even the once wealthy classes became severely pressured.
Finally, only the genuinely rich and those employed by the government, such as soldiers and bureaucrats had any real spending power – the vast mass of the population became increasingly hard pressed and the fabric of the empire began to break apart.
Does that ring any bells? Of course, in this current climate of political indifference and incompetence it is the ordinary taxpaying citizens of Europe, Japan and America that are paying for big government, a corrupt and insulated financial sector and especially the imperial overreach of the (supposedly) ex-imperial powers within NATO.
Just as Rome did not collapse overnight, the American/Japanese/European axis is not collapsing overnight. However, what is clear is that history is repeating itself – the Western economies are doomed to fail if they are not radically reformed.
Just like in Rome, corruption in all of these governments is endemic and expecting reform is rather like expecting a judge to order his own execution for obstruction of justice. So what we can expect is a gradual and inexorable decline and fall; the only real matter for discussion is how long will it take this time around?
15 Comments on "Decline And Fall Of The New Rome"
Arthur on Sun, 7th Apr 2013 8:46 pm
“Just as Rome did not collapse overnight, the American/Japanese/European axis is not collapsing overnight.”
I would love to collapse like the Romans as it took them two centuries.
Billc on Sun, 7th Apr 2013 8:49 pm
Maybe another 5 years
J-Gav on Sun, 7th Apr 2013 9:49 pm
Arthur – I agree, 2 centuries would be cool … but that’s not what we’re looking at.
Billc – They’re so good at can-kicking that it’s really hard to say. 2-5 years sounds right to me as far as clarifying the general situation goes (for anybody even remotely paying attention that is, maybe 30-40% of the population). From there to call it collapse as in: “Hey, shit, we’ve collapsed!” might take as long as a generation unless certain undesirable convergences occur in the meantime (energy, finance, climate, environment etc) as I’ve suggested elsewhere on this site.
DC on Sun, 7th Apr 2013 10:28 pm
There is one key difference here between Rome and the US. In this day and age,it is the amerikans *are* the barbarians that threaten civilization. Rome, at least, could justify it ruinous military expenditures in the time after the 3rd century crises in that they did face an actual external military threat. Now, it is the amerikan barbarians that threaten the world at every turn. Rome, had it reformed itself in time, would have been worth saving. The US however, enjoys no such consideration. When it disintegrates no one will miss its crude ‘culture’, very much.
The US wont have the luxury of a long drawn out collapse like Rome did. All it will take is one accident, a severe nuclear accident, a bad growing season, the next economic shock etc, and it could all unravel for them at very high speed. The more time passes, the more likely a black swan will bring them down. Rome took so long to fall because ancient civilization was far more resliant and not totally reliant on a small set of energy sources or technologies to sustain them.
NP on Sun, 7th Apr 2013 10:33 pm
Peak oil won’t kick society back to the stone age over night, most people will notice it as a long economic recession. It has probably already begun.
Ctrl+p lots of new money is more or less the only thing put poloticans know about and can do to stimulate the economy hoping that nairu will keep things going past the next election.
Historically it has never worked very well in the long run and it probably… won’t this time either.
J-Gav on Sun, 7th Apr 2013 11:18 pm
DC – My feeling is that you’re right about Rome’s demise being more drawn-out than that of the US but I’m not sure I’d call it a “luxury.” There was famine (including some regions of today’s Italy) and marauding bands of ‘hired guns,’ plus the ever-increasing squeeze of monetary debasement and higher taxes …
Dmyers on Mon, 8th Apr 2013 12:11 am
There are also some interesting differences here between the times of these two empires. One of those is the experience of time itself. Things happen at such a rapid rate at this point, that there is no historic precedent, really. I tend to think that the rapid rate of change humans have generated in their world would accelerate the course of collapse.
Another relevant difference is the shear mass of the modern Western world and its reliance on a vulnerable network of wires and satellites. Part of the mass of the failing empire, I would note, is the mass of living human beings. The number of people along with the size and complexity of our institutions, corporations and technology will also tend to accelerate collapse.
BillT on Mon, 8th Apr 2013 1:19 am
All of the above covers the collapse idea very well. I would only add that when Rome collapsed, it led to the Dark Ages, but there was still a lot of world that was not touched by it, like the America’s and much of Africa. Places where there were still resources to build on and with. Not so today. we have depleted all of the easy to get resources everywhere. Rebuilding is going to be very difficult, if not impossible.
Arthur on Mon, 8th Apr 2013 8:47 am
I am less convinced than most here about the inevitability of ‘collapse’. A society that will stop using the car, as I think it will happen soon, gradually, does not count as collapse in my book. Liberation would be more appropiate as industrial society basically is a scheme where you have to work because you have to pay the car so you can drive to your work)) True, I greatly enjoyed all this feeling of freedom that came with car ownership when I was younger, but today I am glad if do NOT have to drive (or fly). There is still a 10 year old little German 80 mpg garbage bin parked before my door, but I would not miss it if it was gone, but I am not living alone. I always try to persuade (sporadic) clients to let me work remote and sometimes they agree, reluctantly. But as most clients are located in urban centers, public transport/hotels does the trick as well. And once the car is gone and Europe will be like 1815-1950, still highly developed, the energy bill will be greatly reduced, not just in reduced fuel consumption but additionally in the energy needed to build all these cars in the first place and maintain the necessary infrastructure. What is required will be a few watts necessary for LED lightning, e-gadgets, thermo-wired cloths, that will replace huge heating installations, wasting energy by keeping large volumes of air and walls warm, leaking away through the windows. You can keep warm for 5% of your old energy bill if you do not reject ‘high’ tech.
http://deepresource.wordpress.com/2012/04/21/electric-clothing/
Collapse, really?
BillT on Mon, 8th Apr 2013 2:41 pm
Arthur, your techie religion is not going to save you in the coming decline. Call it what you want, collapse, decline, contraction, etc. We have built a sophisticated, very complicated and fragile world system we call ‘normal’. Someone on the outside looking in would call it suicidal. We have come to the end of the paved road. We are stepping off onto gravel and then mud and then paths and then…
We will either slide quickly into a much lower lifestyle without cars, tech, electric, the internet. Or, we will go out with a nuclear bang.
But, the world will go on. In about 100 million years all of the land mass we know will have returned to the molten core and in maybe 500 million years life will be back in some new form on new continents. Oil may even reform from some animal life not yet imagined. Mother Nature is just wiping the slate of a failed experiment we call homo sapiens. The next world may succeed where we failed.
rollin on Mon, 8th Apr 2013 7:44 pm
Yes, Russia and China are increasing military spending, have been for years. The US is decreasing spending and reducing it’s overseas armies. The US has no empire, collects no foreign levies, gives money away in fact.
This whole US empire delusion is just that, a delusion.
Arthur on Mon, 8th Apr 2013 8:46 pm
It is not an empire like the British empire was, with physical presence and hundreds of thousands of British willing to spend decades of their lives administering the empire in remote places. But these hundreds of US military bases do achieve that these countries behave like satellites and not like adversaries. Most important example are the Gulf states (Arab west coast that is). No military presence, no petrol dollar system, based on reserve currency. That system is now slowly eroding, thus bringing dimished returns for the US for it’s military investments.
rollin on Mon, 8th Apr 2013 9:40 pm
Your first five words say it “it is not an empire”. Those are called allies and apparently feel protected by US presence. How long would Japan, the Phillipines or Taiwan last if not for the umbrella of the US?
Soon most of those bases will be obsolete as our new technologies develop.
Interesting that Russia is developing anti-ICBM systems. Thought that was against treaty.
Arthur on Mon, 8th Apr 2013 11:03 pm
I thought that the US was planning a missile defense system in Poland? Obviously only against Iran. Incoming Russian missiles will get free passage not to disturb the MAD system, or so was the Russian defense ministery told.
“How long would Japan, the Phillipines or Taiwan last if not for the umbrella of the US?”
For centuries more, albeit under a different sort umbrella, the ones that can be bought at Walmart.
DC on Mon, 8th Apr 2013 11:24 pm
What treaty is that rollin? Are you referring to the one the US unilaterally withdrew from? It is now the US that violates both the spirit and letter of the old (cancelled) ABM treaty. There is *no* treaty anymore, the US has seen to that. Russia actually wants a ABM treaty even now, but they have been rebuffed at every turn by the amerikans and there impossible lop-sided demands.
And those missile bases the US is ringing Russia and China with are not ‘defensive’ at all, they are offensive weapons systems.
Thus, Russia is free to develop whatever counters it sees fit to the amerikan empires destabilizing ‘defence’ bases its parking on its western border. However, the Russians do realize that missile defence is impossible and that the amerikans claims they can shoot down ballistic missiles are basically a hoax. That doesnt make the attempts to prefect them any less destabilizing, which is at the heart of Russia’s objections.
From wikipedia
On December 13, 2001, George W. Bush gave Russia notice of the United States’ withdrawal from the treaty, in accordance with the clause that required six months’ notice before terminating the pact.
And FYI rollin, a great many people in Japan, the Philippines would be more than happy to Yankee go home-permanently. They wouldnt be overrun the following day by rampaging hordes of reds from Russia and China if that were to happen. The amerikan empires bases ensure tension and hostility, not prevent it.