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Page added on February 14, 2014
China Hard Landing War-Gamed for World Economy
A hard landing in China would hobble global growth and buoy the dollar, says Societe Generale SA in a study that war-games the international implications of a steep decline in China’s expansion.
A plunge to 2 percent from more than 10 percent in 2010 would be enough to slash 1.5 percentage points from worldwide economic growth in the first year as China’s troubles are transmitted through trade, banking and financial market channels, the French bank said in a Feb. 11 report.
Among the reasons to expect such reverberations from what the authors called the “worst reasonable case:” China’s imports are equivalent to 30 percent of its gross domestic product. Asian and commodity-producing nations would be the hardest hit, according to Michala Marcussen, global head of economics research in London.
The impact could be aggravated by China’s bias toward investment, which accounts for half of its GDP. Less worrisome is the risk of China hurting the world through banks, given that total foreign claims of banks on the country are just 3.2 percent of the total, according to data from the Bank for International Settlements cited in the report.
Some multinational companies would be hurt by their exposure and the dollar would also rise 10 percent against the yuan in the first year, according to Societe Generale.
At the same time, a 30 percent drop in the price of oil as China slowed would aid growth elsewhere, as would an easing of monetary policy by foreign central banks, said Marcussen.
Chinese growth wouldn’t have to slow all the way to 2 percent to become a problem for developed markets, according to equity strategists at Credit Suisse Group AG in a Feb. 5 report.
They say growth of 5 percent would be enough to start hurting, although they note such a slump is unlikely given that government debt of 80 percent of GDP gives China’s leaders scope to respond.
Worrisome elements include the third biggest bubble in private sector credit of recent decades and a real estate construction sector equivalent to 20 percent of GDP. Still, even if Chinese growth fades to 6 percent and U.S. expansion to 2 percent, the world could still grow almost 3 percent this year, they said.
Societe Generale forecasts Chinese growth of less than 7 percent this year, below the 7.5 percent targeted by the government and anticipated by the International Monetary Fund.
* * *
Switzerland’s vote to impose quotas for newcomers will have long-term implications for its economy, according to Commerzbank AG.
If net annual immigration increases were to fall to 0.3 percent from the recent rate of about 1 percent, that would reduce the economy’s growth potential by 0.75 percentage point, said Johannes Werner in a Feb. 12 report. The reasoning: the productivity of foreigners probably isn’t lower than that of Swiss citizens, and therefore the influx is positive for growth.
In recent years more than 45 percent of all immigrants have held a post-secondary degree, greater than the 37 percent of local residents, Frankfurt-based Werner said. The Swiss population already can’t meet demand for workers, adding further pressure on the economy.
* * *
The ability of emerging-market central banks to drive their economies may be determined by how free of political meddling they are.
In a bid to discover which ones are most independent, Alexander Kazan, director of emerging markets strategy at the Eurasia Group in New York, asked his colleagues to score key developing countries on the strength of the legal and institutional framework governing monetary policy and the actual independence and conduct of interest-rate policy.
They determined Colombia, South Africa, Chile, Mexico, Peru and Poland were the most independent. Less so were China, Argentina and Ukraine.
Politics may be particularly prickly this year given that 44 emerging nations are holding elections. That’s the most since 2007, Eurasia calculates.
* * *
European policy makers may have a new tool to deploy if they want to encourage the decline in bond yields across their cash-strapped nations.
Analysts at Citigroup Inc. looked at the European Reward System, a policy initiative proposed by Christian Dargnat, president of the European Fund and Asset Management Association.
It posits that most of the highly rated sovereign bond issuers have benefited from a flight to safety during the crisis and so been able to issue bonds and borrow at low rates. They thus should be willing to share some of the rewards from such flows by transferring money to those who have met the commitments of their bailouts.
Recipients of such support would be those economies that stick to budget cuts and who have paid more to fund themselves than the average of those countries willing to participate.
The proposal has a “reasonably good chance of being accepted by member states” because it doesn’t require treaty changes, limits the size of budget transfers and supports the restoration of debt sustainability, the Citigroup economists said in a Feb. 7 report.
* * *
Quantitative easing in the U.S. was a success. Between 1870 and 1913, at least.
During that period, the Treasury made a lot of large open market purchases of Treasury securities, according to Benjamin Chabot and Gabe Herman of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
While not conducted with the aim of stimulating the economy, the buying narrowed the yield spread between Treasury bonds and riskier assets, they said in a report this week.
* * *
The main channel through which emerging markets could roil developed economies is the financial system, now that international capital markets have become more integrated, according to UBS AG.
The conclusion comes as investors are suggesting there will be no repeat of the crises witnessed in economies from Thailand to Brazil in the late 1990s. Stephane Deo, head of asset allocation at UBS, says stress in developing nations could still be transmitted elsewhere given the rise of financial connections since then.
Emerging-country stock markets now account for 20 percent of world market capitalization, up from 8 percent in the late 1990s. Cross-border lending has also jumped. Turkey is one concern given that German bank loans to the country have quadrupled since 2000.
“If investors (including banks) react swiftly to perceived emerging risks by quickly reversing capital flows, emerging economies could see sharp falls in output, which could materially impact DM recovery,” said London-based Deo in a Feb. 11 report. “Therein lies the chief risk to the global economy and capital markets.”
* * *
Handing control of a company’s cash to a woman results in more conservative financial-reporting policies.
A study published by the Bank of Finland found female chief finance officers are more likely to back less stock-price-based compensation, lower dividend payouts and smaller company risk.
The report was based on a sample of 1,500 U.S. companies from 1988 to 2007 and aimed to discover whether, following a change in CFO, there was a large shift in accounting conservatism attributable to gender.
“Overall the study provides strong support for the notion that female CFOs are more risk averse than male CFOs,” said the report’s four authors, among them Iftekhar Hasan of the Finnish central bank and Fordham University in New York.
52 Comments on "China Hard Landing War-Gamed for World Economy"
action on Fri, 14th Feb 2014 8:30 pm
♡♥♡♥♡♥♡♥♡♥♡♥♡♥♡♥♥♡♥♡♥ 😀
J-Gav on Fri, 14th Feb 2014 10:25 pm
Yeah, that’s tellin’ em, Action! War-game that!
J-Gav on Fri, 14th Feb 2014 10:28 pm
Explanation: I just gave a red, red rose to my partner of 38 years …
Davey on Fri, 14th Feb 2014 11:31 pm
Congrats J-gav
Makati1 on Sat, 15th Feb 2014 12:58 am
And the beat goes on…
PrestonSturges on Sat, 15th Feb 2014 1:09 am
This is what I say week after week – China is a bubble and anything that pops it will strengthen US international trade, the dollar, and its ability to afford oil.
Contrast that with the shills who are here every week predicting China will turn the US into a sea of fire and then expand exponentially forever.
As I say every week, let China go ahead and shoot a couple missiles and their economy will turn to rubble without anyone needing to shoot back.
Davy, Hermann, MO on Sat, 15th Feb 2014 2:36 am
@PrestonSturges well, I tend to agree on one level. The bulls**t China exceptionalism nauseates me as bad as the American exceptionalism talk. If one looks at the “new normal” that has developed since early nineties and accelerated since post 911, one see through the claims of national exceptionalism. We must move up a level to view a new exceptionalism in a new normal. The new exceptionalism is all about the Too Big To Fail organizations, businesses, and 1%ers. These folks know no border. They are above the laws of the countries they move between. They are connected by investments, partnerships, political patronage, and unwritten agreements. They as a group are beyond the reaches of regulation and laws because their counterparty risks are a threat to whole systems stability
rollin on Sat, 15th Feb 2014 2:45 am
The logic behind allowing immigration into developed countries that do not have enough jobs for their own citizens is beyond my grasp.
As China slows growth this will not be a global problem, it will be a global opportunity. Other cheap wage slave driven countries are just waiting for more market opportunity.
DMyers on Sat, 15th Feb 2014 3:00 am
The fact is, we have developed a rather strange, economically, symbiotic relationship with China. Without any formal training in anything, I am able to draw a satisfactory conclusion that this has put both nations in a precarious position, each with respect to the other.
And as for any claim that China is an inch away from rubbelization, how is that relevant when the US is only half an inch away?
DC on Sat, 15th Feb 2014 5:46 am
AFAIK, the only ones banging the ‘China Exceptionalism’ drum, are amerikans. I am trying to hard to recall an instance where anyone from China actually made such a claim. ‘We’ seem to be doing it for them. I seriously ‘they’ even notice, or care-China has enough issues of its own to worry about.
Regardless, no matter what happens going forward, good or bad(well bad), its going to Chinas fault.
GregT on Sat, 15th Feb 2014 8:13 am
Hmmm, all exceptionalism aside, who exactly is benefiting from all of this? It isn’t the American people, it isn’t the Chinese people, and it sure as hell isn’t the Russians or the Iranians. The only ones benefiting are TPTB. We all run around pointing fingers at each other, as if WE are the ones. WE are all exceptional. TPTB could care less about any of us.
WE are merely pawns in their games, WE are expendable, and the reality is, WE are irrelevant. We have all been brainwashed into the belief that it is our ‘country’ that is exceptional. Propaganda at it’s finest. Divide and conquer, segregation, discrimination, exceptionalism, all tools of the ‘trade’.
IMHO, the American constitution was one of the best ever written. The founding fathers fought and died for the rights and freedoms of the people. Those rights and freedoms could only be upheld BY the people, FOR the people. The right to bear arms, the right to free assembly, the right to freedom of speech. All worth fighting and dying for. Those rights and freedoms have been eroded, they have been taken away because the people have become complacent, they have been brainwashed by their own government, ruled by TPTB.
China, America, Russia, Korea, the EU, irrelevant. We have all been lead to believe that we are the ones, and we will even kill each other, and die for our propagandists.
Whether China comes out on top, or America, or the EU, really has no bearing at all, in the end we will all suffer, we will all be ruled by TPTB. Unless of course, we the people unite, and stand up for ourselves, whatever the colour of our skin.
Arthur on Sat, 15th Feb 2014 9:02 am
The article is purely hypothetical. As long as the intelligent Chinese population is greatly lagging behind the West in per capita income, we can expect the Chinese to grow year after year, until they catch up, or more likely, until the resource situation will halt further expansion.
There is no such thing as ‘Chinese exceptionalism’. The idea of ‘American exceptionalism’ comes from an American Jewish commie named Jay Lovestone in the twenties, when it was clear for insiders like Henry Ford, Charles Lindbergh and the Kennedy clan, that the US was well on it’s way of becoming a Zionist colony, a process completed under Reagan, when so-called neocons took control of the American right, and as such completed the takeover of the entire political spectrum. The only barrier that keeps the Zionists from turning the US into the next USSR horror state, their natural habitat, complete with Gulags, is the Constitution, but they are working on it day and night to abolish that institution. The CIA/Mossad orchestration of 9/11 was intended for exactly that purpose. They want the world and nothing less.
http://www.lewrockwell.com/2014/02/paul-craig-roberts/the-world-faces-nuclear-war/
Meanwhile the world watches TV and sleepwalks into desaster.
Davy, Hermann, MO on Sat, 15th Feb 2014 11:40 am
Arthur, while I do not reject some of what you say here, I continue to stress the new normal and new exceptionalism. It is about being rich, connected, and global. The intricacies of the old normal/exceptionalism still remain of course. Yet, TBTF global organizations, businesses, and institutions have taken control. It is all about money and greed now. Ideology is bad for business. It is fine for these folks to revel in it a little. They even don’t mind the petty nationalism situations just as long as they do not blow up. Crisis are bad for business. These folks at the highest rung of the global society have their own “unwritten” passport to the club. They drink fine wine and socialize from time to time. Their actions are above the law of normal people. We all know today in many cases money and connections buys justice. These people are well educated, smart and generally behave. Not so much normal laws but the clubs rules. If we look at it from systems theory and history we see the same thing happened in other times. Civilizations cycle to a relative complexity for their time and place. Power centralizes in these times, the system becomes brittle and subject to entropic forcing. It is ready for a break to a lower level. We are near this break. While I accept a quick collapse scenario I believe there are plenty of resources to keep the BAU momentum going. The racket can continue for a while. There is allot of low hanging fruit to pick. Cannibalism of the lower classes has just begun in earnest since 2008. I really think it will take the intense systematic risk from energy dynamics to collapse this bubble.
P.S. the 911 thing sounds fishy to me but the conspiracy theories are good consumption for those who need players to blame. I doubt it.
D. Welch on Sat, 15th Feb 2014 12:38 pm
China will suffer and environmental collapse long before they become a number on power.
rollin on Sat, 15th Feb 2014 1:04 pm
GregT, your first paragraph about TPTB might have some truth in it, although I think that what we are looking at is the result of accidental selection following a societal meme, the result would be similar. Just as cellular evolution demanded further organization, so does mercantilism.
I must take some exception to a portion of your third paragraph. “Those rights and freedoms have been eroded, they have been taken away because the people have become complacent, they have been brainwashed by their own government, ruled by TPTB.”
Basically the proportion of courageous risk-takers, of adventurers, is small compared to the general population who are more prone to want a security blanket thrown over them. Since the government wants to grow in power, the movement toward a police state and of permitting everything was not only accepted by the majority, it was actually advocated by or at least desired by the majority. It is a form of democracy in action. Of course the rich and powerful go along with this, the last thing they want is for a true democracy to emerge.
So those wonderful (and they were) and highly perceptive founding fathers, set the stage for today. By setting up a republic versus the feared true democracy they set the stage for a giant system of controlling government that cannot be easily changed, but can be gamed since the power resides within a small minority. Democracy is harder to game.
One must also recall that one of the major premises for breaking from the British Empire was taxation on trade and limits placed upon American business. Much of the freedom we won was to free our business enterprises to allow greater expansion and profit. That worked quite well.
So it wasn’t complacency, it was a direct desire of a popular majority. That is why you hear so little squawking or only really see protests when it concerns economics or being placed outside the system. All that the Occupy groups really wanted was to be included in the societal dream (job, house, bills, diapers …), to be successful, to not be excluded by a dysfunctional system.
In a strange and unexpected way, somehow the pseudo-democracy actually worked as a democracy. The majority did get something closer to what they wanted; security and protection and someone else to do the thinking. They just do not realize the cost, yet.
Davy, Hermann, MO on Sat, 15th Feb 2014 1:47 pm
Rollin this whole intelligence/spying deal has been of particular interest to me. I am a private person and believe in checks and balances on government. Secret programs reviewed by secret courts based upon secret laws is unsettling. Throw in some ideology, high tech capabilities, a paramilitary police and our concoction appears to be tyrannical police state within a democracy. The appearance of freedom is a tool of deception and quiets the masses.
“Tyrants preserve themselves by sowing fear and mistrust among the
citizens by means of spies, by distracting them with foreign wars, by
eliminating men of spirit who might lead a revolution, by humbling
the people, and making them incapable of decisive action.”
~Aristotle
My fears now are as we approach contraction the stage will be set for martial law and overt suspension of civil liberties. Free thinkers like us should be worried for our ability to connect and trade important ideas will be compromised. The worst case is getting a knock at the door, having communications cut, and or incarceration. We are naive to think these things can’t happen here. The slippery slope to absolute tyrannical rule is just a collapse away. This does not necessarily have to be national. A fragmented nation appears very possible with loose associations of regions in common purpose
ghung on Sat, 15th Feb 2014 2:01 pm
Arthur; jeez, not sure how you morph “the international implications of a steep decline in China’s expansion” into some great Jewish conspiracy, but my guess is it’s the same sort of thing that kept Hitler awake at night. I doubt 1.3 billion Chinese are losing much sleep over what ‘Henry Ford, Charles Lindbergh and the Kennedy clan’ thought. In fact, I doubt they waste much time and energy at all, inventing scapegoats to blame the world’s woes on.
It occurred to me some time back that the greatest liability we face is those who hold others responsible for what is essentially a collective human failure. They generally don’t have the character to honestly consider what their own part has been in contributing to this clusterfuck. Blaming others is the coward’s way out.
Davy, Hermann, MO on Sat, 15th Feb 2014 2:04 pm
@ghung agreed
mike on Sat, 15th Feb 2014 3:39 pm
What is it with Arthur who can talk a lot of sense and whose ideas are often very sound, but who then has to lurch into a swamp of anti semitic conspiracy theory? Maybe his mum and dad had a bit of his willy chopped off as a baby and he’s had post traumatic syndrome ever since.
Arthur on Sat, 15th Feb 2014 3:39 pm
ghung, several posters refered to ‘exceptionalism’, and I chime in.
It occurred to me some time back that the greatest liability we face is those who hold others responsible for what is essentially a collective human failure.
Sounds to me like an excuse to deny any responsibility for the actions of your own government. How many more Iraq’s, Libya’s, Syria’s and Ukraine’s do we still need so that it finally will sink in even with you that the US government is busy with trying to establish a global empire at any cost?
the 911 thing sounds fishy to me but the conspiracy theories are good consumption for those who need players to blame. I doubt it.
These ‘dancing Israelis’ had their camera’s installed along the Hudson before the first impact.. ‘to document the event’. So they knew it was going yo happen and they it was going to happen because they organised it. All three WTC buildings were clearly demolished. Paul Craig Roberts yesterday about the fake bin Laden story:
http://www.globalresearch.ca/the-killing-of-osama-bin-laden-was-an-american-hoax/5350261
but my guess is it’s the same sort of thing that kept Hitler awake at night.
You are typically a product of the US mass media culture, swallowing everything as long as it was on the telly. Just drop the name Hitler and the argument is won, or so you think.
ghung on Sat, 15th Feb 2014 4:08 pm
“Just drop the name Hitler and the argument is won, or so you think.”
I wasn’t arguing. As for the rest…
Davy, Hermann, MO on Sat, 15th Feb 2014 4:18 pm
Well, Arthur, 911 thing is old news lets move on to our collective 911 jest around the corner!
Northwest Resident on Sat, 15th Feb 2014 4:58 pm
Davy, you said: “P.S. the 911 thing sounds fishy to me but the conspiracy theories are good consumption for those who need players to blame. I doubt it.”
Like you, I was once a total skeptic when it came to the 911 “conspiracy theories”, probably even more so than you. But then, during my wake-up call to peak oil and subsequent “research” into the subject, I came across several sources of information that changed my mind.
Especially if you look at the end result, it is hard to see 911 as anything other than a planned and well-executed “event”. In terms of ME oil production sites, where are “we” (USA, US Military) now? Answer: We have military bases and tons of firepower all over the Middle East — we have the Middle East oil sources locked down and secured. How did we get there? Answer: “The War On Terror” and the Iraq invasion/occupation. And how in the world did the American people agree to the increased military spending and deaths of their children and the intensive mobilization of military forces to fight “The War On Terror” and to invade Iraq? Answer: 9/11.
9/11 set the American and Western attitudes toward “terrorists” in concrete, and provided a solid base upon which to build the case for invasion of Iraq on a set of lies (Yellowcake, WMD, smoking clouds, etc…).
So, if 9/11 wasn’t a planned event, then one thing we do know for sure and that is, it sure worked out perfectly for those who wanted to get our military forces into the ME and Iraq. Coincidence? I doubt it.
Here’s a video that might give you some additional information and insight on 9/11 that you might not already know. It is amazing how so much circumstantial evidence tends to point at the position that 9/11 was indeed a planned and well-executed event — an event fully intended to prepare Americans for full-scale war, another “Pearl Harbor”.
“”Oil Smoke & Mirrors” offers a sobering critique of our perceived recent history, of our present global circumstances, and of our shared future in light of imminent, under-reported and mis-represented energy production constraints.
Through a series of impressively candid, informed and articulate interviews, this film argues that the bizzare events surrounding the 9/11 attacks, and the equally bizzare prosecution of the so-called “war on terror”, can be more credibly understood in the wider context of an imminent and critical divergence between available global oil aupply and and global oil demand.
The picture “Oil, Smoke & Mirrors” paints is one of a tragically hyper-mediated global-political culture, which, for whatever reason, demonstrably disassociates itself from the values it claims to represent.
While the ideas presented in this film can at first seem daunting, it’s ultimate assertion is that these challenges can indeed be met and surpassed, if, but only if, we can find the courage to perceive them.”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oVzJhlvtDms
Arthur on Sat, 15th Feb 2014 5:31 pm
Especially if you look at the end result, it is hard to see 911 as anything other than a planned and well-executed “event”.
It was full with errors: F93 was clearly shot down (by an independent local commander), after Eric Gibney, the fighter pilot, who shot down F93, after he reported that everybody on board, including crew, was dead.
Because F93 did not show up in NYC, the real target, not Washington, as the official claim goes, Silverstein and co. were totally embarrassed with their WTC7 stuffed with explosives. The choose the lesser evil and ‘decided to pull’, even if no plane hit the building. The 2.x seconds of free fall clearly indicate that ALL carrying columns were blown away at ground level.
F77 clearly did NOT crash into the Pentagon, probably was shot down over the Atlantic by fighter jets (the ones from Langley?). Probably the remote control malfunctioned.
Operation Northwoods (see wiki) was a clear precedent in the sixties, with the entire military top brass ready for action, almost identical to 9/11. Only JFK refused to go along. He btw refused going along a little too much for his own health.
The amazing thing about this shabby organized 9/11 event is that the story still stands! Although it must be said that these days C-Span can hardly have callers phoning into their shows without harassing politicians about 9/11, hilarious:
http://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=c-span+9%2F11+callers&sm=3
Indeed NRW, “Oil, Smoke and Mirrors” is a good one, but there are even better presentations of the 9/11 scam than that early bird.
Northwest Resident on Sat, 15th Feb 2014 5:59 pm
Arthur — There definitely are “better” — as in, more revealing — presentations on 9/11. But what I like about “Oil, Smoke and Mirrors” is that it portrays 9/11 in the context of the peak oil dilemma our world faces. Without peak oil, 9/11 would make no sense whatsoever, and either would “The War On Terror” or the Iraq invasion.
One more point. We posters on peakoil have had several discussions about “TPTB”. Some believe that TPTB are a disunited and out-of-touch group of greedy old men intent on driving BAU to the bitter end simply to maintain their grotesque wealth and to live out the rest of their miserable lives as they have become accustomed to regardless of the consequences to other people or to future generations.
Anybody reading my posts know that I totally disagree with the above characterization of TPTB.
If you accept that 9/11 was a planned and executed “staged event” (as we say in the PR business), then you must agree that TPTB are a well organized, intelligent and highly capable group who are closely monitoring events and trends in the world and reacting accordingly. Most of the time, TPTB are well hidden in the background, not so much coordinating and controlling day-to-day financial or social trends, but in all likelihood manipulating the broad framework in which those trends take place. But every once in a while, in dire circumstances, we have the opportunity to observe TPTB reaching out with their mighty strength and abruptly adjusting the flow of world events. IMHO, 9/11 + The War On Terror + Iraq invasion are a prime example of TPTB “in action”.
I do not ascribe evil or greedy or thoughtless motives to TPTB. Rather, as in the case of 9/11 and subsequent military actions, I see TPTB enacting Machiavellian necessities, ruthlessly using their power to do the “most good” even though many are hurt or die in the process. That’s the real world, boys. If we didn’t lock up the ME oil supply when we did, then most likely we’d already have complete total chaos and collapse, and those of us urgently making preparations now would have been screwed just like everybody else. That’s the way I see it.
PrestonSturges on Sat, 15th Feb 2014 7:00 pm
>>Just drop the name Hitler and the argument is won, or so you think.
Boo-f’ing-hoo, Authur with your global Jewish conspiracy theories and Holocaust denial.
Arthur on Sat, 15th Feb 2014 7:59 pm
I do not ascribe evil or greedy or thoughtless motives to TPTB. Rather, as in the case of 9/11 and subsequent military actions, I see TPTB enacting Machiavellian necessities, ruthlessly using their power to do the “most good” even though many are hurt or die in the process. That’s the real world, boys. If we didn’t lock up the ME oil supply when we did, then most likely we’d already have complete total chaos and collapse, and those of us urgently making preparations now would have been screwed just like everybody else. That’s the way I see it.
You are too smart to accept the official lie. But you explain it away by suggesting, that in the end, it is all for the greater good of humanity.
You are a closet exceptionalist, NRW.
Me, on the other hand adhere to what the Danish professor Niels “nano-thermite” Harrit said: “if they get away with this, they get away with anything”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aQdB27XBT6c
Ca. 2:07:20 and beyond. “The future of western civilization is at stake here.”
I could not agree more.
Northwest Resident on Sat, 15th Feb 2014 8:20 pm
Arthur — Not necessarily for the greater good of humanity, but for the greater good of what we like to call “western civilization”. It has always been a battle to the death between civilizations over resources and power. Today is no different. Like Dick Cheney said, our way of life is non-negotiable. I consider Mr. Cheney to be a top-level representative of TPTB, and his words surely echo the sentiments of TPTB.
Arthur on Sat, 15th Feb 2014 8:27 pm
Authur with your global Jewish conspiracy theories
Here is your smart fellow tribesman Louis Farrakhan, who I happen to deeply admire, agreeing with me on every word, geopolitics, Jews, neocons, 9/11, holotale, Middle East invasion:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sVR-5LQRmfQ
Truly great man.
GregT on Sat, 15th Feb 2014 8:33 pm
“This is your last chance. After this, there is no turning back. You take the blue pill – the story ends, you wake up in your bed and believe whatever you want to believe. You take the red pill – you stay in Wonderland, and I show you how deep the rabbit hole goes. Remember, all I’m offering is the truth – nothing more.”
It is each and every one of us that chooses the path that we wish to take. Nobody is going to spoon feed us the truth. If the truth is what we desire, we ourselves must search for it. What we have been told, is not the truth. Not even remotely close.
Davy, Hermann, MO on Sat, 15th Feb 2014 8:34 pm
@n/r-arthur, I would not put it past them to do this. I guess they had Osama agreeing to admit to 911 or did they photoshop his admission? I am just not sold on the conspiracy. In any case, it is old news. New 911’s are close at hand.
PrestonSturges on Sat, 15th Feb 2014 9:20 pm
>>>Here is your smart fellow tribesman Louis Farrakhan,
I’m sorry Arthur, but I don’t speech the secret language of 10 year old girls, so maybe you translate?
PrestonSturges on Sat, 15th Feb 2014 9:22 pm
By which I mean, translate what you’re trying to say for the rest of us who aren’t part of your circle jerk.
Northwest Resident on Sat, 15th Feb 2014 9:24 pm
“it is old news” — yes, but so very relevant to where we are today.
“New 911’s are close at hand”. — Most likely, in fact almost certainly. Or, at least, one or more additional major “staged events” to set the stage for future historical changes.
“I guess they had Osama agreeing to admit to 911…”. — Don’t forget the very close relationship between the USA and Saudi Arabia, and the equally close relationship between Osama and the Saudi’s (as in, part of the family), and the fact that Osama was the CIA’s “boy” during the Russian/Afghanistan war. Just coincidence?
Arthur on Sat, 15th Feb 2014 9:33 pm
Preston, should you not being busy attempting to cut China’s throat?
http://peakoil.com/publicpolicy/us-directly-challenges-chinas-air-defense-zone
The rest of the world would jump at the chance to cut China’s throat economically.
You have insane, primitive & barbaric ideas about what ‘the rest of the world wants to do to China’. Speak for yourself, bruta.
You are hands down the most unapologetic and as such naive wannabee imperial material on this board.
Arthur on Sat, 15th Feb 2014 9:42 pm
NWR, most 9/11 insiders agree that bin Laden died in December 2001. They simply used him, no need to ask for permission. He would never cooperate in a schema with the purpose of invading his homeland by the infidel.
http://www.corbettreport.com/osama-bin-laden-pronounced-dead-for-the-ninth-time/
Bin Laden made common cause with the CIA to get rid of the Soviet infidel from Afghanistan. When that job was done, the rationale behind the relationship with the US was finished.
GregT on Sat, 15th Feb 2014 11:04 pm
According Benazir Bhutto in this interview with David Frost in 2007, Bin Laden was murdered by Omar Sheikh.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RxMBkWY_uZY
Of course, she herself was assassinated in December of 2007, not that long after doing this interview.
PrestonSturges on Sat, 15th Feb 2014 11:34 pm
BTW Arthur, I have a 250 year Anglo-Saxon pedigree, unlike whatever secret shame you’re overcompensating for.
Northwest Resident on Sat, 15th Feb 2014 11:47 pm
Arthur — I’ve never been a 9/11 insider and won’t ever be, TBH. The details don’t fascinate me enough. Once I learned enough to satisfy my own extreme doubts about 9/11, put it all into perspective and dealt with the swell of emotion that acceptance of the facts brought on, I left it. I’ll take your word on what you’ve just stated about bin Laden. And GregT — thanks for pointing that out — wow, she actually said that — it just adds to the pile of evidence that there are powerful and mysterious forces at work in this world, and they aren’t fooling around. Also of note, the raid to get bin Laden that we were treated to not long ago — how very interesting that they buried his body at sea and we are left to just take their word for it that the DNA results “proved” it was bin Laden. Well, I guess that wraps it up, case closed.
And to kick this dead horse one last time: The only reason I dwell on 9/11 for even one second these days is because when it comes to the question of what might TPTB do to preserve Western Civilization and their own power within it, the answer clearly is whatever they deem necessary, regardless of the loss of life. As we ponder the question of will BAU stagger along until all the world’s remaining energy resources are wasted on feeding the hapless billions, or will TPTB take decisive action to put an end to BAU and rebuild with a much smaller and sustainable population, we might keep 911, the war on terror and the Iraq invasion in mind.
Davy, Hermann, MO on Sun, 16th Feb 2014 12:18 am
OK, 911 busy bees, tell me this, why did the al Qaeda websites acknowledging Bin Laden’s death after the compound raid? Al Zawahiri was moved to second in command. The raid is well documented. Pakistanis raised holy cane about that raid. Was this staged by the NSA hacks? You don’t really believe al Qaeda is working covertly with the Developed world’s security systems? Pakistani’s would have no reason to look stupid by having the US violate its sovereignty for a conspiracy that does not benefit them.
Guys this whole story about 911 conspiracy gets more loose ends the bigger your story gets. Maybe it is me and I just don’t “see”.
Northwest Resident on Sun, 16th Feb 2014 12:46 am
Davy — I honestly don’t know any of the controversy surrounding the bin Laden raid and his death. To me, that is completely separate from 9/11. I’m willing to take the official bin Laden raid story at face value, though it does seem very odd that they wouldn’t drag the body back to be independently confirmed AS bin Laden. These days, whenever the government says “take our word for it”, I start getting this queasy feeling… 🙂
lobodomar on Sun, 16th Feb 2014 1:22 am
Denial is such a strong psychological force.
It’s really sad that even most peak oilers, who are usually intelligent and critical people, still fall victim to the 911 brainwash.
The images of the three towers falling on their footprints are available for everyone to see, and yet people don’t wake up.
Davy: keep digging, you’re on the right track. In your defense, for american citizens the reboot is much harder. But don’t let yourself fall victim to the “old story” temptation. Regardless of how that might sound to the people who lost their loved ones, it is a very dangerous form of denial. If we were easily manipulated in the past and still don’t acknowledge it, then we’re even more easily manipulated now.
Cheers from Brazil
Davy, Hermann, MO on Sun, 16th Feb 2014 2:01 am
@lobodomar, look, this may be important, but I see it as a distraction at this point. I almost want to tell you “get a grip” we are talking about something much bigger in the here and now. We should not be worried about something from 13 years ago that is cloudy and murky. We are faced with a paradigm shift for our species. This shift is 10,000 years in the making. The shift is of 10,000 growth turning to a contraction that will not end until industrial modern man is no more. You may call me a loon and or a doomer. Can you see how this petty 911 shit is of no use to me? Look, I hope I am wrong. I don’t believe I am wrong. So with this said, I hope for 9 years of relative stability before the bottom drops out. I will jump at any optimism I can find with pleasure. Any optimism that can balance the environment and mankind in a common good. I am talking an awakening. Let’s face it systems cycle and an awakening will come at a much later date. In the meantime I am searching trying to get closer to the truth. You can never know the truth but you can try to get closer to it!
Makati1 on Sun, 16th Feb 2014 2:23 am
The Christians will not have to wait until they die to experience hell. It is coming to a our neighborhood and soon. We are at the end of the capitalist game and will soon experience the results.
lobodomar on Sun, 16th Feb 2014 3:06 am
Davy,
you’re right, we’re on the verge of the end of the illusion of endless external/material growth. But remember, internal/spiritual growth
will always be available. Sorry, I know that “spiritual” is not a very popular word among peak oilers. Bash me on if you want 🙂
In my opinion the seed to the greatest paradigm shift of all has already been planted about 2000 years ago, but we’re still catwalking in regards to its
application. We still have a really hard time admitting to ourselves that we are nothing but scapegoaters – and very easily manipulated ones.
Davy, Hermann, MO on Sun, 16th Feb 2014 3:24 am
@lobodomer, no bashing here, just expressing my views. Sorry, I am not a peakster but I follow it. I tend to be on the spiritual side myself. Not sure how 911 and spiritual equates. But good luck on your sojourn.
Northwest Resident on Sun, 16th Feb 2014 4:22 am
Makati1 — I imagine when the game finally ends and we start whatever comes afterwards, there will be plenty of hell to go around. Some places obviously much worse than others. I wouldn’t want to be eking out survival in a slum in India or in a crowded city anywhere. Imagine the visions of hell that might be in places like Bangledesh, Egypt, China, Phillipines and many other places where there are far too many people and already not nearly enough food. — But there is room for optimism too. It won’t be nearly as bad in a lot of places. I like to think that I’m in one of those places, and that a lot of other people are, or can quickly get there. This is a change that we HAVE to go through. As for me, I’m going to face this epic challenge the same way I’ve always faced challenges — I’m going to fight — I think I can win — I and those closest to me are going to make it to the other side. With luck, preparation and positive thinking, I am sure you can do the same, or at least give it one hell of a try.
lobodomar on Sun, 16th Feb 2014 5:12 am
“Not sure how 911 and spiritual equates”
911 is a classic example of the scapegoat mechanism, where the mob mimetically unites against a victim. Even though the mob’s version of the story is nothing but a myth (in 911’s case, an orchestrated myth), catharsis and cultural cohesion follow.
For the link between the scapegoat mechanism and spirituality, I would advise Rene Girard’s books.
Sorry for going off topic.
Arthur on Sun, 16th Feb 2014 12:26 pm
Spiritualism is ridiculed by the modern mass consumer, but fact is that spirituality (religion) has been around for as long mankind exists. Religion gradually disappeared between 1960-2000 in Western Europe, but that could easily reverse, like is being the case now in Russia.
Davy, Hermann, MO on Sun, 16th Feb 2014 1:17 pm
We need to hire some shamans or medicine men for what is in store!