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America The Insolvent
Watching the world these days, I’m experiencing the same fury that rises up from my gut when the driver in the car ahead me is weaving drunkenly, endangering everyone on the road.
Fury is a normal and rational human response when threatened with unnecessary harm. Women who are groped (or worse) by a disgusting predator like Harvey Weinstein, pensioners whose funds are stolen by Wall Street shysters, everyone who is being fleeced by corporations in search of a few extra dollars this quarter — all have the right to be infuriated.
It’s been especially hard of late for those of us who are “reality”-based; who value data, fundamentals and historical context.
I earn my living by reading, analyzing and making sense of the world, and then working to help orient people’s actions to align with both the current reality and future probabilities. But that’s become pretty damn difficult in a world where the financial markets are rigged and the main news outlets are unwilling (unable?) to cover the real issues, preferring instead to focus on distractions that mainly serve to keep us isolated and divided.
The trajectory our global society is on will not end well, and that infuraties me. And the fact that most of the coming suffering is unnecessary if only we’d make better choices — that really pisses me off.
Here’s just a small smattering of the threats we’ve created for ourselves:
- $247 trillion of global debt, growing exponentially
- Off-budget liabilities well over a quadrillion dollars globally ($220+ trillion in the US alone)
- Massively underfunded pensions mathematically unable to meet their future obligations
- A coming peak in world oil supply somewhere between 2020-2030 (and around 2022 for the US)
- A global economy that requires perpetual growth, but can’t grow for much longer due to planetary resource constraints
- Huge demographic imbalances in Japan, the US, the EU and Russia that will leave too few workers supporting too many elderly
- Collapsing ecosystems and increasing heatwaves on both land and sea, threatening crop failures and food chain disruptions.
Collectively these all point to a future of less. Perhaps even a future of nothing.
Our only option for safely navigating towards a better future is to start dedicating a huge amount of focus, time, energy and resources to addressing these threats.
But, unfortunately, that’s simply not happening right now.
Unsustainable Finances
We don’t have much time left to get prepared. Yes, it’s rare for things to suddenly fall apart overnight — so if you’re playing the odds, we probably have a few years left before the status quo as we know it begins to break down. Maybe until 2020; possibly to 2023. But not much longer after that.
The trends are just too severe. And they’re building up steam.
Setting aside for a moment the frightening ecological and energy trends, a cursory glance at the fiscal and economic data still screams: This is unsustainable!
Look at the projected deficit for the US government:
The US government is currently in fiscal tax year 2018. That means next year’s projected deficit will breach the trillion mark, and things only get worse from there. By 2028 the deficit will be at least $1.7 trillion and possibly as much as $2.4 trillion.
It bears noting that current US tax receipts are just a smidge over $2 trillion. And as the chart below shows, they tend to drop precipitously during recessions:
Delusionionaly, the government’s projection of federal deficits doesn’t include any provisions for recessions over the next decade. This is nuts; recessions are a normal and recurring part of our economic system.
And due to the Federal Reserve’s tinkering to control the business cycle by replacing it with a credit cycle, the next recession is likely to be a doozy — because when credit cycles burst, they are immediately and powerfully contractionary.
So it’s not at all unthinkable that at some point between here and 2028 the US government will find itself borrowing more than 100%(!) of tax receipts in a given year.
That, my friends, is an express ticket to Venezuela-style insolvency.
But wait, there’s more. Two other very much out-of-control elements exacerbating these fiscal deficits will be rising interest costs and Social Security.
Debt Will Become More Costly To Service
Interest costs have a bad habit of being self-reinforcing. The more you borrow the higher your interest costs. But if you’re the government, there’s an added complexity: the more you borrow, the more you tend to also drive up the interest rate, which is an additional compounding factor.
Interest payments are already 25% of tax receipts and are certain to climb as the US federal government tacks on another $13 to $17 trillion in additional debt over the next ten years. Or possibly nearly twice that if a severe recession comes along, as is highly likely.
Under the best scenario (“only” $13 trillion) and assuming a very generous average rate of interest of 3%, that will result in some $400 billion of new, incremental yearly interest payments by 2028.
Under the worst scenario, (let’s assume an incremental $25 trillion of new debt at 5%) that would balloon to an incremental $1.25 trillion in new interest costs. Per year.
Social Security Reserves Are On Their Way To $0
Social Security is now in a cash deficit.
It’s drawing down its “trust fund”, even though this “fund” doesn’t have any actual money in it (just IOU’s from the US Treasury). Put simply, every time the SS administration draws upon the trust fund, it hands some of those IOUs to the US Treasury in return for cash.
And how does the US Treasury get that cash? That’s right: by issuing more debt.
As we can see in this next chart from the SS administration, nearly $3 trillion will be required over the 2018 to 2032 period. After which point, the SS trust fund reserves are gone:
NOTE: we will be going much deeper into these kinds of data at our Summit in New York City with David Stockman on Sep 16, 2018. As former head of the Office of Management and Budget under President Reagan, David has a near-unparalleled command of the vulnerabilities of the US economy and financial markets, as well as what likely repercussions their failure will bring. To learn more about that event, click here.
By Definition, This Will End
All of the above is simply an exercise to show that just when looking at the US economy alone — forget about the issues facing other countries and accelerating depletion of key resources (soil/aquifers/fossil fuels/pollinators/etc) around the world — the current trajectory is entirely unsustainable.
Meaning it must someday end. Whether that will manifest in a sudden castrophe, or in a drawn-out crescendo of accumulating crises, who knows?
But what won’t be happening is “more of the same”. Or a straight-line continuation of business as usual.
I can make the same trend extrapolation arguments for water aquifers and glacial flows serving billions of people. And with soil loss, and oceanic dead zones, and oil production.
None of this is sustainable.
This existential threat to our safety is the root reality, whether we’re conscious of it or not, underlying why so many of us are feeling infurated these days.
And while that fury often takes a partisan bent, our predicaments have nothing whatsoever to do with any particular political party. All are the same when it comes to fostering business as usual. All are identical in their support for endless growth. They merely argue over which misguided steps to take in pursuit of those doomed goals.
As the video below explains, everyone buying into the false ‘left vs right’ framing is being manipulated. Just as two rats in a cage, shocked by an unseen scientist, will direct their anger at each other, oblivious to the true assailant:
The Elites Are Already Making Preparations
The sheer obviousness of our collective predicaments combined with the near complete absence of any collective conversation about them is infuriating.
Worse, the powers that be are very busy propping markets in order to send the signal that “all is well” when everything is very much not well. Far too many people fall for this deception for my comfort.
As we can plainly see in the data presented above, the US is now utterly insolvent and headed towards bankruptcy. Most other nations are just as bad off, or worse. All are pursuing the same insane, impossible policy: Grow exponentially. Forever.
Which makes the current crop of politicians and monetary authorities no better than heavily-intoxicated truck drivers, drunkenly weaving their gigantic rigs in front of your family’s car. Their recklessness to everyone else’s well-being is infuriating.
The few paying attention, like you, can see that all of this falls apart sooner or later. The critical question to ask ourselves is: What should we prioritize doing now, in advance of the reckoning?
That’s the question an increasing number of elites are asking themselves. Yes, these are the people controlling the system today and benefitting the most from it, usually at our expense. But they can see that the racket they’re running has an expiration date. And they’re extremely worried about the hell that may break loose when it arrives.
You may have read some of the recent news stories about billionaires drawing up emergency plans for the social disorder they fear will erupt when the status quo breaks down. I can tell you from first-hand experience these stories are true. We’ve had a number ultra-wealthy individuals and families approach Peak Prosperity for consultations on the same topic.
In Part 2: The Rich Are Planning For Catastrophe, we explain what the wealthy are doing and what frightens them the most. Like them or not, these people have access to the best information and the most resources with which to take action. We’d be foolish not to pay attention to what they’re planning for and how they’re planning for it.
Time is short. The elites are making their own preparations. Be sure to get your own in place soon.
162 Comments on "America The Insolvent"
Cloggie on Sun, 22nd Jul 2018 8:55 am
“Russia has a GDP the size of Italy..they also said they would retaliate if we attacked Syria..and they didn’t do shit..and china wont protect them..they are all on their own.”
Did the US attack Syria? Must have missed it. Oh wait, you mean these token inconsequential firecrackers that were fired to appease neocon bloodhounds at home and did hardly any damage.
Unlike the US, Russia did achieve its aims in Syria and prevented the country from falling into the hands of the globalists. Now Iranian troops are near the Israeli border. That was not planned for at all.
Regarding GDP, you are wrong. Russia has the same GDP-PPP as Germany (4.2T), not Italy. And unlike Germany and Italy, Russia does take its national defense serious, dead serious.
On top of that, Russia and China can use Iran as proxy and as such inflict wounds on the US.
Davy on Sun, 22nd Jul 2018 9:05 am
“It is essentially self sufficient in every way.”
What a dumbass. Do you have references for that stupidity? No wonder you dropped out of school. You have no clue about global economics but instead live in your fantasy agenda world. This is why you and 3rd world are best of friends.
JuanP on Sun, 22nd Jul 2018 9:31 am
Delusional Davy “What a dumbass. Do you have references for that stupidity? No wonder you dropped out of school. You have no clue about global economics but instead live in your fantasy agenda world. This is why you and 3rd world are best of friends”
I don’t need references to prove something that is common knowledge, Exceptionalist. Why don’t you provide references that prove me wrong? I’d love to see them! LOL! You are such a pathetic delusional American Exceptionalist!
Davy on Sun, 22nd Jul 2018 9:34 am
Russia is not self sufficient stupid. It may be one of the more self sufficient countries but your statement is just plain ignorant. This is the reason there are no references from you plus you are intellectually lazy.
Go home!
MASTERMIND on Sun, 22nd Jul 2018 9:37 am
China rejects US call to end Iran oil exports
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/defense-national-security/china-rejects-us-call-to-end-iran-oil-exports
MASTERMIND on Sun, 22nd Jul 2018 9:47 am
Jewish and Arab women on public transit in Jerusalem
https://i.redd.it/xgm6qemunf3x.jpg
See Arabs and Muslims are allowed in Israel..And Jews are not allowed in any muslim countries..Their passports aren’t allowed.
JuanP on Sun, 22nd Jul 2018 10:01 am
Delusional Davy “Russia is not self sufficient stupid.”
Where are your references, Exceptionalist? Russia is self sufficient. It may want things from other countries like BMWs, but it doesn’t NEED anything. Do you even know what self sufficiency means? You don’t seem to! LOL!
MASTERMIND on Sun, 22nd Jul 2018 10:10 am
The US GDP is almost 20 times what Russia’s is..Russia isn’t even in the top then
List of countries by GDP (nominal)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)
Canada has a larger GDP!
LMFAO!
Cloggie on Sun, 22nd Jul 2018 10:16 am
Make that a factor of 4-4.5, lying millimind.
Perhaps the US has 20 times GDP that of North-Vietnam and se all know how that worked out.lol
You want me to post that chopper picture again?
JuanP on Sun, 22nd Jul 2018 10:21 am
MM Yes, The USA has the largest nominal GDP in the world, but it mostly seems to waste its wealth in the MIC. That is why most of its people live like in a Third World country regardless of its wealth. If we invested that money here, at HOME, then maybe we’d have something to brag about.
MASTERMIND on Sun, 22nd Jul 2018 10:48 am
Tiger woods just took the lead in the British open!
Show those rich peckerwoods how its done tiger!
USA USA!
MASTERMIND on Sun, 22nd Jul 2018 10:50 am
Clogg
Vietnam was a jungle..That was an anomaly..
Iran, Russia, china don’t have the camouflage and cover Vietnam has..They will be hammered.
Bloomer on Sun, 22nd Jul 2018 11:37 am
Most working people live paycheck to paycheck. They aren’t likely going to spend what little of their discretionary income prepping for armageddon. Likely scenario the angry masses start a class war against the rich.
GregT on Sun, 22nd Jul 2018 11:37 am
“Show those rich peckerwoods how its done tiger!”
Tiger Woods himself would be the richest peckerwood MM.
MASTERMIND on Sun, 22nd Jul 2018 11:45 am
Save some ladies for the rest of us..
https://i.imgur.com/XrDG9HC.jpg
MASTERMIND on Sun, 22nd Jul 2018 11:53 am
Barack Obama says the rich owe the world a huge debt
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/07/barack-obama-says-the-rich-owe-the-world-a-huge-debt
Cloggie on Sun, 22nd Jul 2018 12:08 pm
Vietnam was a jungle..That was an anomaly..
Iran, Russia, china don’t have the camouflage and cover Vietnam has..They will be hammered.
Vietnam was indeed an anomaly, in contrast to Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria, deserts basically.
Can’t remember that any of these countries ended up as a US colony, intentions not withstanding.
Hammering much?
https://www.newsweek.com/us-losing-so-badly-afghanistan-trump-administration-hid-figures-796466
THE U.S. IS LOSING BADLY IN AFGHANISTAN…
That’s not me saying that, but Newsweek.
Sorry.
“Show those rich peckerwoods how its done tiger!”
It is 10 years ago when T. Woods won something significant. Currently he is 5th. I hope he can at least dance.
Boat on Sun, 22nd Jul 2018 12:17 pm
Clog
Lol @ Putin keeping Syria out of the hands of globalists. The US just one of a large coalition continues to take out ISIS and keeps Assad caged. Trump will stay or leave Syria but anyone attacking Israel from Syria in a serious way would take a small conflict to shock and awe.
Cloggie on Sun, 22nd Jul 2018 12:28 pm
Lol @ Putin keeping Syria out of the hands of globalists. The US just one of a large coalition continues to take out ISIS and keeps Assad caged.
Huh? ISIS is a creation of the US, just like the Taliban was in Afghanistan and bin Laden a US hired gun.
https://documents1940.wordpress.com/2017/11/05/qatar-admits-us-turkey-ksa-qatar-conspired-in-syrian-war/
The US just one of a large coalition continues to take out ISIS and keeps Assad caged.
Huh? The US doesn’t take out ISIS, it merely pretends to.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/russia-isis-us-pretending-fight-islamic-state-syria-iraq-a7993501.html
Assad caged? He has taken back most of the country now, with strong Russian and Iranian support and is now concentrating on Idlib.
https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/interactive/2015/05/syria-country-divided-150529144229467.html
MASTERMIND on Sun, 22nd Jul 2018 12:37 pm
Clogg
Why don’t you go out and make some friends and get a girlfriend..than you wouldnt have to join up with extremist and nazi’s..its not really about white power.you just have to accept that to belong in the group..
And why didn’t you use a better format for your blog..I hate to be the one to say it but your blog looks really scummy..
MASTERMIND on Sun, 22nd Jul 2018 12:40 pm
Teenage Trump Supporter Harassed And Spit On For Wearing MAGA Hat In Seattle
https://www.inquisitr.com/4997557/teenage-trump-supporter-harassed-and-spit-on-for-wearing-maga-hat-in-seattle-video/
MASTERMIND on Sun, 22nd Jul 2018 12:44 pm
The Hill reported that Trump’s tariffs on China are going to raise the price on his MAGA hats.
You can’t make this stuff up..
LMFAo1
Cloggie on Sun, 22nd Jul 2018 12:46 pm
Why don’t you go out and make some friends and get a girlfriend..than you wouldnt have to join up with extremist and nazi’s..its not really about white power.you just have to accept that to belong in the group..
https://s.newsweek.com/sites/www.newsweek.com/files/styles/lg/public/2015/04/17/0417namfall01.jpg
Cloggie on Sun, 22nd Jul 2018 12:51 pm
“Malema posts video calling for violence against whites”
https://citizen.co.za/news/south-africa/1974707/malema-posts-video-calling-for-violence-against-whites/
A South-African anti-white genocide attempt is exactly what we need to finally finish off the left in the West and bring down the US empire. Nice scenes of white evacuation from SA, carried by European troops, yummy! As an appetizer and precursor of operations in North-America.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Julius_Malema
JuanP on Sun, 22nd Jul 2018 12:53 pm
I am back from the gym and the pool and ready to “bitch slap” Davy around some more! LOL! Are you ready for some punishment, Exceptionalist?
MASTERMIND on Sun, 22nd Jul 2018 12:55 pm
Clogg
Newsweek is a horrible source..they retract stories all the time..I had to quit following them on twitter for that reason..Not saying your article is bunk but they do have a horrible track record..not like you would know though..with your daily mail tabloid nonsense you spew constantly.
MASTERMIND on Sun, 22nd Jul 2018 12:56 pm
Juanp
I know your back must be really wet still..
LMFAO!
MASTERMIND on Sun, 22nd Jul 2018 12:58 pm
Clogg
give me a break..white net wealth is ten times what black net wealth is in america..and there are more black people in jail now than there were in slavery in the 1800’s..
MASTERMIND on Sun, 22nd Jul 2018 1:00 pm
Clogg
Do you want me to site the data that proves that Europe is in a depression? I also have a new peer reviewed study from Harvard that says countries with low or weak economic growth leads to economic collapse..its in the journal of economic growth..
I can post both.If you don’t shut the hell up and go away..
Cloggie on Sun, 22nd Jul 2018 1:06 pm
Hahaha, running with the tail between the legs! LMFAO
Jihadist propaganda organisation “White Helmets” is being evacuated from Syria by the Israelis.
Conclusion: war is lost.lol
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-44915099
Cloggie on Sun, 22nd Jul 2018 1:08 pm
“I can post both.If you don’t shut the hell up and go away..”
Haha, “go away”. Millimind is cornered, angry and frustrated, as he should be.
You cannot post, because your data does not indicate a “collapse”. The only thing that collapses is that empire of yours.
Davy on Sun, 22nd Jul 2018 1:10 pm
Boney Juan, did you get your pedicure and eyebrows plucked. What a pussy.
MASTERMIND on Sun, 22nd Jul 2018 1:11 pm
Economic growth goes in cycles..and Europe’s is near the end..they will collapse before the US..Look at the numbers..
MASTERMIND on Sun, 22nd Jul 2018 1:12 pm
There are no nations! There is only humanity. And if we don’t come to understand that right soon, there will be no nations, because there will be no humanity..
-Isaac Asimov
JuanP on Sun, 22nd Jul 2018 1:17 pm
MM/Davy “I know your back must be really wet still.. LMFAO”
You got your multiple personalities mixed up there, Exceptionalist! LOL! Is it getting to be too much for you? You are cracking up.
JuanP on Sun, 22nd Jul 2018 1:23 pm
Delusional Davy “Boney Juan, did you get your pedicure and eyebrows plucked. What a pussy.”
Projecting again, Exceptionalist?
MASTERMIND on Sun, 22nd Jul 2018 1:28 pm
Juanp
You went for a swim? what are you 12 years old?
You are fruit cake..
MASTERMIND on Sun, 22nd Jul 2018 1:38 pm
James Howard Kunstler: Russian Hysteria An Exercise In PsyOps
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-07-22/james-howard-kunstler-russian-hysteria-exercise-psyops
Holy crap..kunt has officially gone off the rails..
MASTERMIND on Sun, 22nd Jul 2018 1:43 pm
Kunsler needs to stop saying thinking class. It’s insulting to actual thinkers. If you mean test-takers and non do-ers of America then fine say that.
JuanP on Sun, 22nd Jul 2018 1:49 pm
MM, I swim regularly. Why do you think I am a fruit cake for swimming? There is no better form of exercise than swimming. Do you even know how to swim?
Cloggie on Sun, 22nd Jul 2018 2:01 pm
There are no nations! There is only humanity. And if we don’t come to understand that right soon, there will be no nations, because there will be no humanity..
-Isaac Asimov
That is what most jews think, and isaac is no exception. The jews, the communist race:
https://youtu.be/j6p1zxKnDeM
Except of course our self-described teuton hebrew Kunstler:
“James Howard Kunstler: Russian Hysteria An Exercise In PsyOps”
Must be a self-hating jew.
MASTERMIND on Sun, 22nd Jul 2018 2:03 pm
Juanp
Don’t worry when society collapses my fish will be swimming in the rich mans daughter!
Free Willy!
Lmfao!
MASTERMIND on Sun, 22nd Jul 2018 2:12 pm
China’s economy will be larger than the US in another decade give or take..And by 2050 its projected to be twice the size..And throughout history when a top dog has been challenged it has usually ended in war and bloodshed..
MASTERMIND on Sun, 22nd Jul 2018 2:33 pm
Clogg
that isn’t true..Putin is a tin foil hat conspiracy nutjob just like you..prove it then..you because Putin says something doesn’t mean its true..you unthinking fool..
MASTERMIND on Sun, 22nd Jul 2018 2:35 pm
Clogg
And you never refute any arguments.You just attack people..and Isaac was not a jew he was an atheist..you lying scum of society..
Cloggie on Sun, 22nd Jul 2018 3:09 pm
“you because Putin says something doesn’t mean its true.”
Everything Putin says is true, he is infallible.
“Isaac was not a jew he was an atheist”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isaac_Asimov
Asimov’s parents were Anna Rachel (née Berman) and Judah Asimov, a family of Jewish millers. He was named Isaac after his mother’s father, Isaac Berman.[13] When he was born, his family lived in Petrovichi near Klimovichi, which was then Gomel Governorate in the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic (now Smolensk Oblast, Russia). Asimov wrote of his father, “My father, for all his education as an Orthodox Jew
Isaac was an atheist jew, or jew for short. Because his ancestors were.
Questions, you lying (((atheist Scott)))
MASTERMIND on Sun, 22nd Jul 2018 4:27 pm
Clogg
There is no such thing as an atheist jew..That is a constriction..He was raised a jew and become an atheist..
You accuse everyone of being jew..you accused me several times..and i have only met one jew in my entire life..
MASTERMIND on Sun, 22nd Jul 2018 4:29 pm
clogg
And it doesn’t matter if he is a jew or not..you are just using that as an ad hom logical fallacy..
You are a pathetic scum that has joined a cult because you are a lonely loser..no woman is ever going to love you..
DMyers on Sun, 22nd Jul 2018 6:21 pm
Clogg has stated before that he has had so many sexual encounters with women that he lost interest for the most part. That is the only information we have about his sexual aspirations.
I had a similar past, so I know where he’s coming from. One hopefully matures beyond the drives and passions. This doesn’t mean a woman could never love him. Rather, a woman could love him for better reasons, so to speak.
Interesting comment, “…no such thing as an atheist Jew.” We know this has to be true but in some cases is not. Usage of the word (Jew) has allowed a double meaning, i.e., description of a specific religious believer, and description of a specific race or bloodline with a common link to Abraham.
So, it is true an atheist could not be a Jew, as it describes a man of religion, but he could be a Jew based on genetics.
Whether “…it doesn’t matter if he is a jew or not…” is really the question Clog must be raising. As the king of question beggars, I have to say your statement begs rather than answers the question.
What I hear from Clog, et. al., is that the Jews’ participation in world affairs should be subject to the same transparency as everyone else. Why wouldn’t it?
First of all the Jews are God’s chosen people, as believed by both Christians and Jews throughout the world. Secondly, Jews suffered the Holocaust, for no other reason than their bloodline. Thirdly, there is a tendency to find anyone who raises questions about Israeli Government actions guilty of anti-semetism.
Israel, which is the Jewish nation, including any actor or agent from within that nation, must obey the law, regardless of its tragic history. It takes courage to stand up to this long-standing custom of special treatment, and the MSM would never touch it, so it is left to brave voices in the wilderness to speak truth to power.
Makati1 on Sun, 22nd Jul 2018 6:49 pm
“… as technology and economics shift the balance of power, enabling not only Russia and China to emerge out from under the shadow of decades of American global primacy – but other nations across the developing world as well – Washington is finding that it is no longer the “mightiest.”
https://journal-neo.org/2018/07/22/bloomberg-americas-new-world-order-is-officially-dead/
‘Hal Brands – the Henry Kissinger Distinguished Professor at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies and a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments – pines of waning American hegemony in his op-ed in Bloomberg titled, “America’s New World Order Is Officially Dead.”
The sub-headline would further elaborate, “China and Russia have fully derailed the post-Cold War movement toward U.S.-led global integration.””
Slip slidin’…