America’s delusions of energy independence

The problem I see with our current situation is that the vast majority of people, including pretty well all politicians and the media, don’t understand why oil is so valuable and why it is not easily replaceable.A major aspect of oil that makes it such a great energy source is that the Energy Profit Ratio for oil can be extremely high, particularly for the large fields we have historically relied upon; fields such as Ghawar, Prudhoe Bay, the Black Giant, Cantarell, Burgan, Ekofisk, Samotlor and many others.

Energy Profit Ratio (EPR) is the ratio of the energy content of a fuel relative to the energy needed to obtain the fuel.

EPR = energy content of fuel/energy needed to obtain fuel

The higher the EPR value is for a fuel, the higher the net energy yield and the more valuable the fuel is because more of the energy can be used for other purposes. Conventional oil, coal and natural gas have high EPR values relative to other energy sources, which makes them extremely valuable. Table I provides some reported EPR values. (EPR is called by some EROI-Energy Return On [energy] Investment.)

Table 1: Energy Profit Ratio Values

Fuel Source	Energy Profit Ratio*
1970 U.S. oil production	30
Today’s U.S. oil production	15
Oil sands oil production	3
Corn ethanol	1-1.5
Hydrogen from Water	<<1

*Primary data source is Cutler Cleveland, Boston University;value for hydrogen, based upon thermodynamics; oil sands data based on Steam-Assisted Gravity Drainage method

The energy profit ratios for ethanol, shale oil, oil sands oil and hydrogen from water are considerably less than that for conventional oil so they have far less net energy that can be used for other purposes in the economy.

Oil distillates have the added virtue of having high energy density values relative to other fuels, shown in Table II.

Table II: Energy Densities for Common Fuels

Fuel Source	Energy Density (kJ/gallon)	% Relative to Octane
Octane	118,690	–
Ethanol	82,958	69.9
Methanol	59,579	50.2
H2 (at 5000 psi and 25.0oC)	6,020	12.8
CH4 (at 5000 psi and 25.0oC)	16,888	35.5

The high energy densities for oil distillates make them particularly valuable for transportation purposes because a large amount of energy can be stored in a relative small volume.

Another important aspect of fuels is their enthalpy of combustion, how much energy a fuel produces per mole of fuel molecules. Table III contains enthalpy of combustion values for various fuels.

Table III: Enthalpy of Combustion Values for Various FuelsFuel

Fuel	Enthalpy of Combustion (kJ/mole*)
Octane	-5,103
Ethanol	-1,278
Methanol	-638
Hydrogen	-286

*A joule is a unit of energy and a mole of molecules consists of 6.02*10²³ molecules

Based upon the data in Table III, it takes 18 times more hydrogen molecules, 8 times more methanol molecules and 4 times more ethanol molecules to obtain the same amount of energy that is obtained from an octane molecule. That’s an important consideration when you have to make the hydrogen, methanol or ethanol.

I’ve previously argued in -Drill Baby Drill-A Reality Check‖ and Drill Baby Drill-A Second Reality Check‖ that there is no possibility that the U.S. is going to drill its way to energy independence. The rhetoric sounds good to people who want to believe it but it doesn’t stand up to scrutiny.

I believe wind and solar have a similar possibility of making the U.S. energy independent in the foreseeable future. I have nothing against wind and solar but I don’t think it’s wise to have exaggerated expectations of the extent to which they can power America in the lifestyle Americans now live. Because wind and solar are intermittent sources of energy, there will always have to be backup energy supplies, probably from fossil fuels or nuclear, or extensive and expensive energy storage systems.

As of 2007, wind and solar were providing about 0.4% of total U.S. energy demand whereas oil provided about 40%. Energy production from wind and solar is growing with the majority of the growth being due to wind energy.

Wind and solar are used to create electrical energy. Oil is mainly used for the transportation sector in the U.S., including aviation, as well as agriculture, construction and other industrial purposes. For wind and solar energy to replace oil, electric vehicles would have to displace oil distillate powered vehicles, something I don’t see happening.

EB & ASPO-USA