Peak Oil is You
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Page added on November 3, 2004
A critical view of the Most Important International Energy Agencies
Preface:
Conditions of the world’s oil supply have entered into a new phase: increasing demand
pressure, worries about the security of supply in important oil producing countries, speculative factors, but particularly, clear indications that limitations on the supply side have caused unexpected and high price increases. >
In view of the fact that an increase of oil production is obviously becoming more and more difficult, it is now almost irrelevant,
whether the peak of oil production has already been reached or whether growth of production “only†can’t keep pace anymore with rising demand.
With accumulating evidence we will soon be able to decide between the conflicting views
held by “optimists†and “pessimistsâ€Â. According to the doctrine of the “optimists†(mostly pronounced by economists), rising prices will induce a fast increase of oil exploration and production, which in turn will lead to a relaxation in the oil market in the near future. In contrast, the “pessimists†(mostly influenced by geological considerations) expect that it will become increasingly difficult to balance the increase in demand by a sufficient rise in supply.
As a consequence production will not be able to follow demand and, after a short phase of stagnation, will decline inescapably. Many indications during the last four years vindicate the theses of the “pessimists†and not of the “optimistsâ€Â. But it would be much more appropriate to leave these misleading
categories behind and to speak in future only about “realistic†and “unrealistic†views. This topic is not a matter of belief anymore. At first the present state of the world’s oil supply will be outlined. Then follows a detailed discussion of the arguments of the “optimistsâ€Â.
We attach particular importance to this, as in most publications there is a reference to the main original papers which are often quoted with their central messages, but this is rarely accompanied by a critical analysis. In most cases the conclusiveness of the cited arguments is not questioned since they originate from institutions to which a high authority is attributed.http://www.energiekrise.de/news/forum/docs/LBST_Countdown_2004-10-12.pdf
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