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Page added on March 2, 2012
World Production Update
The EIA, IEA and JODI have updated their numbers so it is time for a small update on some world production charts.
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| Figure 1. World oil production (EIA Monthly) for crude oil + NGL. The median forecast is calculated from 15 models that are predicting a peak before 2020 (Bakhtiari, Smith, Staniford, Loglets, Shock model, GBM, ASPO-[70,58,45], Robelius Low/High, HSM,Duncan&Youngquist). 95% of the predictions sees a production peak between 2008 and 2010 at 77.5 – 85.0 mbpd (The 95% forecast variability area in yellow is computed using a bootstrap technique). The magenta area is the 95% confidence interval for the population-based model. JODI is corrected for missing countries and years (see below). IEA data is for all liquids minus processing gains and biofuels. |
According to the EIA, we are near record production for crude oil + NGL and all liquids.
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| Figure 2. World production (EIA). Click to Enlarge. |
Strong growth coming mainly from marginal supply, Canadian production almost tripled in about ten years whereas conventional crude oil is nearly flat since 2005:
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| Figure 3. Supply growth per category (100= Jan 2001). |
According to JODI (last data point if for December 2011), Russia, the US and Saudi Arabia, Brazil and Kuwait are producing at decadal record rates.
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| Figure 2. World production for crude oil only. The black dotted line is the EIA estimate. The color is function of production shortfall from the last 10 years peak production. |
The divergence between EIA and JODI is almost zero for non-OPEC however there is still a difference for OPEC around 1.3 Mbpd (see also there for a discussion).
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| Figure 3. EIA-JODI divergence |
6 Comments on "World Production Update"
Isaiah on Sat, 3rd Mar 2012 2:16 am
So-called “Peak Oil” theory is just a theory engendered by liberals to swindle the American middle class out of our money by making us pay higher gas prices. Don’t believe the liberal hype; there is no oil shortage. In fact, the good ole USA is actually exporting about a million barrels of oil a day, that’s proof that the US is awash in oil-and that’s not even counting all the billions of barrels that are still waiting to be extracted in the Bakken shale, Alaska and Gulf of Mexico.
This is a link to a video that scientifically disproves the “peak oil” myth: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=isRIMZi0SB0
Harquebus on Sat, 3rd Mar 2012 4:02 am
Peak oil is an observation, not a theory. The timing of global peak oil is theory.
BillT on Sat, 3rd Mar 2012 4:12 am
As has been said by many…”we will know when it happened by looking into our rear view mirror.” That more and more are looking and seeing the 2005-2006 time as Peak Oil production says it all. We can pretend that the new ‘bio-fuels/fraking/tar sands will keep us growing, but they won’t. They are way down on the slope of EROEI and cannot provide the net energy that light, sweet crude does/did. End of story. Denial will only make your future worse. Prepare for a world of scarce, very expensive energy with-out personal cars, etc. It’s on it’s way.
FarQ3 on Sat, 3rd Mar 2012 7:35 am
What an idiotic statement Isiah “USA is actually exporting about a million barrels of oil a day, that’s proof that the US is awash in oil”
And how much crude oil does the USA import on a daily basis? uh! only about 12 million barrels per day Isiah. Surely your peanut can work out that 12 is a much bigger number than 1
Jeff H on Sat, 3rd Mar 2012 10:01 am
I think Isaiah is probably a spoof since his link is to HorseCents who does parodies of several issues.
Kenz300 on Sat, 3rd Mar 2012 9:30 pm
Quote — ” Strong growth coming mainly from marginal supply, Canadian production almost tripled in about ten years whereas conventional crude oil is nearly flat since 2005:”
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Rising demand from China and India is outpacing supply. China’s growth is now a determining factor in oil prices.