When you hear the words high tech, you probably imagine a smartphone, a driverless car, maybe even a spaceship.
Having been in the oil and natural gas business for 36 years, I picture 3D seismic imaging that enables scientists to see miles below the seabed floor; the world’s biggest carbon sequestration project; and precision drilling equipment that enables us to bore holes more than 35,000 feet below sea level and hit a target the size of a baseball home plate.
These technological achievements are what make the oil and natural gas business one of the world’s most high-tech industries, and they put us at the forefront of Industry 4.0 – the Fourth Industrial Revolution.

Fuel for the energy economy
Since the discovery of California’s Kern River oil field in the late 1800s, the industry has used technology to grow supplies and deliver affordable and reliable energy to the world. Continuous advances in technology have enabled us to keep 100-year-old oilfields producing, to develop cleaner-burning fuels, and to do so with an increasingly smaller environmental footprint.
You’ve heard some of the terms representing these advances – enhanced oil recovery, horizontal drilling, ultra-deepwater production. The foundation of all of these innovations is our ongoing commitment to advance technology to fuel our energy economy.
Today, the global energy system delivers the equivalent of more than 280 million barrels of oil every day from across all sources – oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear and renewables – of which oil and natural gas account for 149 million barrels. Meeting that total energy demand requires sufficient liquids to fill more than 18,000 Olympic-sized swimming pools each day, or more than 12 Olympic-sized swimming pools every minute of every day.
As you can imagine, the technology needed to support the global energy system is massive and requires continuous investment. Since 2007, Chevron alone has invested nearly $6 billion on research and development. We’re involved in every step of the technology development chain – from early-stage research to industrial-scale application.
We know ideas can come from anywhere, so our venture capital company scours the world for promising start-ups that can help develop emerging energy technologies. We work on fundamental research and development in partnership with world-class universities, national laboratories and government agencies such as NASA. Our investment focus is finding, developing, producing, processing, transporting and delivering energy – safely, affordably, reliably and at scale.
The end result is that we’re able to produce in places we once only dreamed of. In the early 1950s, in offshore operations, the industry had only the ability to drill in water depths of 100 feet – to a total depth of 5,000 feet. Today, we can drill in water depths of more than 10,000 feet – and then at least another 25,000 feet under the seabed (which, from the water’s surface, is further down than Mount Everest is tall). We’re operating in water depths that require remote-operated vehicles to place and monitor our equipment. And we’re extracting resources from rocks we once bypassed as too difficult or uneconomic.
Improvements in technology have advanced our understanding of the earth’s subsurface geology, making it easier for us to find resources. Dry holes – as a percentage of total US exploratory wells drilled across the industry – have fallen from around 75% in the 1970s and 1980s to around 40% recently.
This has been made possible by advances in earth modeling, 3D and even 4D seismic imaging, risk profiling, and computing power. In this new world, we’re storing vast amounts of data – in petabytes. Since 2002, the data we’ve stored has increased 250-fold, and that number continues to grow. In addition, our production is more efficient because our digital oil fields enable us to remotely monitor thousands of pieces of equipment on six continents in real time.
A transformation in the oil and gas industry
Some advances in technology have been truly transformative, such as those used to unlock US natural gas and oil from rocks with very low porosity, such as shale. Just over a decade ago, the United States was raising red flags about the decline in supplies of domestic natural gas. The industry felt the pressure and began building terminals to import liquefied natural gas, or LNG. But while those import terminals were being built, the industry made a major breakthrough.
Though we had been using hydraulic fracturing to extract hydrocarbons from formations for decades, when the industry combined that with horizontal drilling, we cracked the code to economically producing natural gas – and then oil – from shale. Companies were quick to apply these combined technologies to formations across the country and even advance them for more efficient production. In the process, the United States has re-established its reputation as an energy superpower.
The United States is now the global leader in total combined crude oil and other liquids production, overtaking both Saudi Arabia and Russia. In addition, we’re number one in terms of natural gas production. As a result, some of the LNG import terminals I mentioned above have been converted into export terminals.
In many cases, the world’s supply of natural gas is not located where the gas is needed. To move these fuels across oceans, we convert natural gas into LNG. LNG is natural gas that has been cooled to -260° F (-162° C), changing it from a gas into a liquid that is 1/600th of its original volume. This enables it to be shipped safely and efficiently aboard specially designed LNG vessels. After arriving at its destination, we return the LNG to its gaseous state for delivery through local pipelines. It’s a highly technical and innovative process that is literally lighting up our world.
Other technological advances are less transformative for the world energy supply, but they contribute to our efforts to limit the impact of our operations on the environment. For example, we use state-of-the-art drones for early detection of any unexpected emission releases. We use stationary infrared cameras to look for potential gaseous leaks to ensure the integrity of our equipment and operations. And we use technology to continually evolve our operations to meet tightening environmental standards, such as those to reduce sulfur content in US gasoline. We know it’s through technology that we’ll be able to continue to develop resources in the years ahead while addressing new or more stringent environmental challenges, such as climate change.
No more peak oil
We’re already moving in this direction. I mentioned earlier the world’s biggest carbon dioxide injection project, which we’re building at our Gorgon LNG facility in Australia. Although standard industry practice is to remove the CO2 from the natural gas and vent it to the atmosphere, at the Gorgon Project we plan to extract and inject the naturally occurring CO2 into a formation more than two kilometers beneath the surface. This is game-changing technology to protect the air.
At our neighbouring Wheatstone LNG facility, we’re using cutting-edge technology to micro-tunnel under the shoreline to transport natural gas without disturbing the barrier lagoon system. This system supports mangrove and estuarine habitats for a range of marine fauna, such as migratory shorebirds, turtles, sawfish, and recreational crab and finfish species.
The technology we’re using today has evolved so profoundly from the early years of the Kern River oil field that the topic of “running out of oil”, which once dominated every industry conference, is rarely discussed today. The advances in finding new resources and extending the life of existing ones are so far-reaching that we in the industry have a common refrain: “Tell me when technology will stop advancing, and I’ll tell you when we’ll reach peak oil.” Given how much we’ve advanced our industry – from the days of the simple land-based pump jack to today’s high-tech, digital oil field – I cannot imagine when that day might come.

Even as we celebrate these achievements, our focus is on the future. Chevron is a 137-year-old company active around the world and involved in all aspects of the oil and natural gas business. We’ve been able to thrive as long as we have by continuously finding new technologies and approaches to produce reliable and affordable energy while improving environmental performance – from the production of oil and natural gas to the consumer’s end-use emissions. Through our ongoing creativity and innovation, we’ll continue finding more economically and environmentally efficient ways to power the world in the decades ahead. This is our priority. We know that without continued technological advancements, Chevron and the industry will go the way of the horse-drawn carriage and the steam engine.

Cloggie on Sun, 22nd Jan 2017 3:06 pm
We should be thankful for the path technology is offering us to extend the fossil age a little, a path we should use for the transition without delay.
Davy on Sun, 22nd Jan 2017 3:08 pm
I think it is pretty cocky of the techno’s to dismiss and discredit peak oil in all its various dynamics because of technology. We often forget that technology must have a healthy economy to achieve full potential. Many a civilization had innovative technology but failed because that technology could not be applied as needed. This article is a sales pitch which is even another step removed from reality. These oil industry technologies are great but the optimism is clearly flawed.
rockman on Sun, 22nd Jan 2017 3:56 pm
“Just over a decade ago, the United States was raising red flags about the decline in supplies of domestic natural gas.” No it wasn’t according to the EIA: it had been sitting on a plateau with very little undulation since 1993 to 2006 following a significant increase since 1986. It was during the significant decline from ’73 to ’86 that concern arose. Since 2006 we’ve had a very nice increase thanks almost solely to the Marcellus Shale. Around 2006 the MS produced about 7% of US production and today it’s approaching 20%.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n9070us2A.htm
But not picking on John Boy: he just saying what he’s paid to say as the head of a public company. Also I don’t think he said “no peak oil”…too smart to set himself up for an obvious slapdown. He just used the defendable “No, we’re not running out of oil”. Safe because it completely ingores the PO issue.
Apneaman on Sun, 22nd Jan 2017 4:16 pm
Technological progress alone won’t stem resource use
Researchers find no evidence of an overall reduction in the world’s consumption of materials
“While some scientists believe that the world can achieve significant dematerialization through improvements in technology, a new study finds that technological advances alone will not bring about dematerialization and, ultimately, a sustainable world. The researchers found that no matter how much more efficient and compact a product is made, consumers will only demand more of that product and in the long run increase the total amount of materials used in making that product.”
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/01/170119120234.htm
Why leave anything for the grand kids anyway since they won’t be able to survive in the ravaged and impoverished biosphere you have left them?
Apneaman on Sun, 22nd Jan 2017 4:33 pm
Seems like all the tech in the world cannot help techno industrial man to manage the consequences of using all that tech. Give any plague species a bunch of technology and it will only be a matter of time before they infect all the healthy tissue on the planet. Looks like the humans will extinct themselves and a million of more other species in about 3 centuries total. Impressive.
Chile wildfires prompt state of emergency
https://watchers.news/2017/01/21/chile-wildfires-january-2017/
Outcast_Searcher on Sun, 22nd Jan 2017 5:22 pm
More technology to extract more FF’s is just accelerating AGW. Pumping some of the CO2 underground doesn’t BEGIN to mitigate all the CO2 produced from the FF’s we burn.
But of course, we’d expect an OIL CEO to just use distraction. It’s all he’s got.
eugene on Sun, 22nd Jan 2017 5:34 pm
Many yrs ago, I read a piece re technology is our new religion. In other words, if one only believes, one is saved. Through the yrs, I have watched the words come true and no more than today. From the get go, we had politicians promising “two cars in every garage” which, “we the people”, believed to the depths of our soul. Today, untold millions are clinging to “I’m going to fix everything”. Somehow, to a tired old man, it looks like bullshit but what the hell, if one has to have miracles to believe in, so be it.
Antius on Sun, 22nd Jan 2017 5:35 pm
Time and time again these idiots miss the point. Running out of oil was never the problem. It was running out of oil that the world can afford…
Dredd on Sun, 22nd Jan 2017 5:42 pm
“No more peak oil”
The Earth is flat again (Once Upon A Time).
rj on Sun, 22nd Jan 2017 6:04 pm
“improving environmental performance – from the production of oil and natural gas to the consumer’s end-use emissions.”
That’s fucking twilight zone right there.
onlooker on Sun, 22nd Jan 2017 6:12 pm
That is true Eugene. We have come to believe technology can do miracles. So while it has been useful in many ways it has come with harmful effects also. In the end it is a tool for us to use as we will, for good or for bad.
Hairless Monkey on Sun, 22nd Jan 2017 6:40 pm
Yeah because of technology the oil will last forever.
sunweb on Sun, 22nd Jan 2017 6:42 pm
It is comforting to prefer the noise of delusional magical thinking and pretending that the system of perpetual growth can work forever; that some variant of business as usual can persist. There is just too much tied up with it and any unraveling would be far too chaotic and unpredictable. Wrapping our heads around the eventualities of global warming; of overshoot; of the desecration of world wildlife; of the acidification of the oceans; of the poisoning of pollinators stymies.
A world no longer powered by fossil fuels or nuclear, no matter what incarnation, is almost inconceivable and for many terrifying. . It is indeed traumatic for what it might (probably) means not just for us but for our love ones, children, grandchildren. Our hearts break. We want to fix it. So we do more technology and more ultimate harm.
We are slowly technogizing ourselves into extinction. Technology is seductive. Is it the power? Is it the comfort? Or is it some internal particularly human attribute that drives it? Technology surrounds us and becomes part of our story and myths. Technology tantalizes the human mind to make, combine, invent. There are always unintended consequences with technology. It effects how we experience the world in time and space. It affects how we feel the world. If all the externalities were included in the prices and cost to nature, we would be very, very wary of technology.
I think we have moved from technology in the service of religion (pyramids and gothic cathedrals) to religion and culture in the service of technology. It isn’t a deity that will save humanity but in the eyes of many – it will be technology.
We will do more of the same, business as usual until there are no more holes in the ground to dig, no more water above and below to contaminate, no humans to wage slave, no other lifeforms to eliminate. Yes, we are building Trojan horses in our hearts, minds and spirits. It will be elitist and entitlement and hubris – it will end with both a bang and a whimper.
Davy on Sun, 22nd Jan 2017 7:03 pm
Technology has become the human standard. More performance is better. Better is faster, more power, and more efficiency. Greater complexity represent a modern value. It has a shock and awe effect that always sells. We need to evaluate direction now in this regards. Do we go for more complexity and its associated efficiency and higher performance or do we seek simplicity? How much is too much? How much affluence is too much? Generally it is the case that the greater the complexity, power, speed, and efficiency the less the resilience and sustainability. It is a matter of how much is needed and when that level is achieve how much more is really less. This is a point of discussions with issues of limits and diminishing returns. This societal question is a statement on human value. This is vital now because we are on the cusp of a societal transition. Life is being transformed in multiple ways and direction is now critical. Is technology the right direction or are we going this direction only because it is a habituation and a custom? Few will discuss the value of less even if that means more stable. This more is a default mentality of modern man. Progress is destiny. It then often comes down to if one group does less and the other more then the group that chose less is conquered by the one that chose more. This is even the case if less is better. It is almost as if we are destine to burn ourselves up in the pursuit of more because it is an evolutionary trap of large brained primates.
Apneaman on Sun, 22nd Jan 2017 8:51 pm
HEART WARMING
“Only those who succeed at blocking their level of awareness and manage to construct a fallacious fantasy inside their minds, are able to enjoy the mundane and tedious routine of existence. For the rest, it’s all about a dreadful test of physical struggle and mental endurance.
It’s utterly distressing for an awakened mind to come to terms and fully understand that all that will come next—starting from this point, and all the way towards death—is either a recycled repetition, or a slightly modified version of: sleep, eat, drink, work, study, mindless recreation, shit, piss, sex, play, socialization, useless distraction, and rinse and repeat it all over again the next day. And the day after that one, and the other, and the other one too…
Existence not only needs, but it practically demands the individuals to distort and alter their reality in a dishonest way, just to manage to withstand the colossal futility and the dismal emptiness that it can always be found inside of it.
Just to forget and ignore that they are slaves of their dull cerebral demands, and puppets of their vain carnal desires.
Limited and defined by an insipid cycle of absolute nothingness.
And, for those who are simply too rational to subdue towards such absurdly ridiculous demand, the whole thing quickly transforms into an insufferable ordeal…
If you refuse to live a lie or cannot adapt to play by these awful rules, you are doomed to patiently wait for the ending; while in the meantime, you are forced to experience an atrocious amount of pointless occurrences that are going to contain nothing but more of the same old tiring existential stupidity.
Needless to say that existence is not a very good deal, and sadly, if you are already here obliged to exist, you are stuck with it until departure.
There is no salvation, no liberation and no way to obtain absolution, other than to seek after death and the soothing effect of its eternal rest.
– Matthias Jablonka
Sissyfuss on Sun, 22nd Jan 2017 9:32 pm
This is not an article disseminating information, it’s a bloody infomercial! Someone on this site got suckered in.
makati1 on Sun, 22nd Jan 2017 9:54 pm
Sissy, unfortunately, most ‘articles’ today are disguised commercials selling something, even if it is just propaganda.
Keith McClary on Mon, 23rd Jan 2017 12:18 am
At least he doesn’t rave about huge, vast new discoveries.
onlooker on Mon, 23rd Jan 2017 1:27 am
Yes, this post by AP captures I believe what some do to deal with the psychological pains, fears and vulnerabilities. Ultimately, if I was a Psychiatrist (which I am not haha) though I would not recommend this. This article is totally imbued with pessimism. It is colored by the overtones of an unfulfilled life and/or perturbing experiences. Certainly, life and the human condition offers us all glimpses of horrible human behavior, and an unjust and uncaring Cosmos. But, that too becomes our selected outlook. The Yin and Yang. What makes joy and pleasure possible but depression and pain. In the whirlwind of emotions we can get lost, so remember that Life offers the ultimate exit door Death. Do not dwell and wallow in your negative emotions. Be grateful that you the tiny speck in this Universe are alive, can reason, think and wonder. Be grateful for that last meal, that last deep gulp of fresh air, that last memory of something joyful, that last testament to human goodness and sacrifice etc. Humans can show such noble and altruistic behaviors also. The Cosmos is uncaring because you were born to be its surrogate for emotions. So head up and dwell on the positives for only then can you find that balance that is Peace. That is my two cents and I am not a Guru either haha.
Kathy C on Mon, 23rd Jan 2017 5:41 am
http://tinyurl.com/h8xouv9
“Civilization goes over the net energy cliff in 2022 — just 6 years away
… excerpts from 3 posts by Louis Arnoux (see the full versions here) and a 1-hour video explaining the Hill’s group report here . Basically this explains the Net Energy Cliff and why it drops off so quickly rather than being a bell curve”
Kathy C on Mon, 23rd Jan 2017 5:44 am
Apeneaman, thanks for the quote from Jablonka. Right on
Davy on Mon, 23rd Jan 2017 5:50 am
For the Matthias Jablonka reference to be valid then his dark reflections on reality are themselves a dishonest distortion on reality as mentioned here:
“Existence not only needs, but it practically demands the individuals to distort and alter their reality in a dishonest way, just to manage to withstand the colossal futility and the dismal emptiness that it can always be found inside of it.”
No doubt life is one vile task after another but life is also balanced with joy and wonder. One cannot know darkness without light. That is a bit Tao but it fits. It is those who embrace the abyss that find meaning. In this time of uncertainty like man has never known this is never truer. Man now has incredible insight into himself and the universe and he has never been so lost. He is vastly capable but inept. I suggest some humility for modern man and for those who are in despair look on the brighter side. It is the extremes of both orientations that represent our insanity.
Cloggie on Mon, 23rd Jan 2017 5:52 am
excerpts from 3 posts by Louis Arnoux (see the full versions here) and a 1-hour video explaining the Hill’s group report here .
Kathy, please…
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2593032/Coal-fuel-UK-centuries-Vast-deposits-totalling-23trillion-tonnes-North-Sea.html
Worrying about peak oil/running out of energy is so 2005.
http://peakoil.com/production/we-used-to-worry-about-peak-oil-then-the-technological-revolution-happened-2
ShortOnOil has dug himself commercially so deep into his peak oil hole, that for him there is no way back.
And he is not the only one who embraced obsolete assumptions and broadcasted them far and wide… that there is no way back without losing public face.
Peak oil: the boulevard of broken dreams. Peak oil, the playground of laymen smelling their chance of realizing their post-industrialist world view.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Soa3gO7tL-c
pointer on Mon, 23rd Jan 2017 7:18 am
Technology will solve all of our problems.
Apneaman on Mon, 23rd Jan 2017 8:12 am
Clogo, you can keep reposting that silly old (2014) daily mail undersea coal gasification article every damn day, but the repetition will not increase the chances of it happening, nor will it cause any of the adults around here to believe it will ever happen. 2014 eh? So is there an update on how the dream is coming along? What happened with the test drilling? Any investors? An official project under way or in the works? They have a similar utopian energy myth in America that some retards like you (with help from think tanks) will attempt to resurrect every now and then – kerogen which is a petroleum wax with neutral or negative EROEI, but translated as “trillions of barrels of oil!” & “American energy independence”……………again.
New Dutch disease — a gas hangover
The Netherlands blew through billions in profits from natural gas, and now it’s turning to Russia for supplies.
http://www.politico.eu/article/the-party-is-over-for-dutch-gas-now-for-the-hangover-groningen-netherlands-energy/
joe on Mon, 23rd Jan 2017 8:15 am
The tech revolution is still being subsidised by declining easy oil. With the tech revolution we would be in big trouble NOW. Every barrel of easy oil we use is being used to drill for tight oil. When every barrel of tight oil is derived from tight sources then the real cost of tight oil will be visible. Remember we are talking of only a couple of percentage points of profit here, but if a profit moves from say 10% to 1% prospects look different. I dont accept that there is no peak oil, right now we are in the phony war of peak oil, a middle point in the venn diagram from the cross over from easy oil to tigh+renewables where the cost of living will be higher.
Apneaman on Mon, 23rd Jan 2017 8:16 am
Rain (and snow) bombs keep falling on their heads…..
New Zealand hit by ‘weather bomb’ bringing summer snow and flooding
Severe low caused heavy rain and gales and resulted in large dumps of snow in the middle of the southern summer
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/23/new-zealand-weather-bomb-summer-snow-flooding
Kathy C on Mon, 23rd Jan 2017 8:17 am
Onlooker you wrote “The Cosmos is uncaring because you were born to be its surrogate for emotions. ”
Oh my dog, did I get any choice in this matter. What if I didn’t want that role? Am I a slave to whatever caused me to be a surrogate for emotions.
So some being wants emotions to exist and we are chose for that role? How about the emotions of a child who has never felt anything but hunger. How about the emotions of an 8 year old girl who was killed on her wedding night by her 40 year old father who tore open her uterus with his plunging member (I don’t know what words get banned here so I am not saying this quite the way I would like to say it). I can’t begin to fathom how evil a being or whatever would be to create humans just so such emotions can exist.
Davy you like so many look at life as essentially good from the privilege of living in a country that is not being bombed to smithereens, from a country where food is plentiful, etc. There are people in this world who NEVER get to feel joy and wonder and that has been the case ever since civilization became a lifestyle. We get to feel joy and wonder because the west has impoverished the rest of the world. How much joy and wonder do you feel when you live under the shadow of drones, drones that even attack times that should be joy and wonder – wedding parties. How much joy and wonder do you have when your parents have just sold you to the sex industry so they can feed the rest of their children. There are estimates of 20 to 30 million slaves in the world today, many if not most of them as sex slave. How much joy and wonder do you have slaving for Saudi Arabia to provide the energy that runs the west?
“It was like a bad dream” is the way one migrant worker from the Philippines summed up his experiences in Saudi Arabia.Another worker, from Bangladesh, told us: “I slept many nights beside the road and spent many days without food.It was a painful life.I could not explain that life.” A woman in a village in India, whose son was beheaded following a secret trial, could only say this: “We have no more tears, our tears have all dried up.” She deferred to her husband to provide the account of their son’s imprisonment and execution in Jeddah.”
http://tinyurl.com/j5fpjpb
Most in this country are the 1% of the world in wealth, almost all probably the 2%
“According to the Global Rich List, a website that brings awareness to worldwide income disparities, an income of $32,400 a year will allow you to make the cut” (as being in the 1%). http://tinyurl.com/hupqvvl
The voices of anyone who owns or has access to a computer are not voices that have anything to say about the “goodness” of being human and being alive. We have no right. We live off the oppression of others by consent to our life styles (even very moderate or humble ones).
I remember seeing a baby brought in to the Chidren’s Home in Port-au-Prince with skin like parchment and nothing else showing but bones. It was hard to believe that child was breathing still. The sisters called to the head sister to come and baptize the baby. Nothing else to be done. I could almost hope for a heaven for innocents who find nothing but pain from the moment of birth, I can be glad they return relatively quickly to nothingness, but I cannot rejoice in my life, despite the fact that is often filled with joy, having such a memory seared on my brain forever (until I no longer have to ponder the pain in the world because I get to sink back into nothingness).
Apneaman on Mon, 23rd Jan 2017 8:43 am
Deadly tornadoes strike South; ‘high risk’ for more as freak storm approaches East Coast
“At least 18 people are dead in Mississippi and Georgia after violent thunderstorms, some spawning tornadoes, tore across the South on Saturday and Sunday.
Another round of destructive thunderstorms are raking across the Southeast into Sunday evening, and the National Weather Service has declared parts of northern Florida and southern Georgia at “high risk” of severe weather, which is extremely unusual for this time of year.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/01/22/deadly-tornadoes-strike-south-high-risk-for-more-as-freak-storm-approaches-east-coast/
Increasing tornado outbreaks—is climate change responsible?
December 1, 2016
“published a study showing that the average number of tornadoes during outbreaks—large-scale weather events that can last one to three days and span huge regions—has risen since 1954. But they were not sure why.”
https://phys.org/news/2016-12-tornado-outbreaksis-climate-responsible.html
Just a couple more coincidences is all. To go with a few hundred others coincidences.
Davy on Mon, 23rd Jan 2017 8:46 am
Come on Kathy, the whole world is not Syria and the whole US is not Palm Beach. Come over here to the Ozarks and I will show you poor people and yes some are happy. Mixed bag of treats and turds. The world and the US is much too big for generalizations for me to buy into your comment as-is. I have been here on this board for several years and the arguments of inequality abound without good balance. You are rationalizing about darkness just as others do with optimism. Try tempering your extreme views of the dark side and it will make it easier to temper those who see too much optimism. My comment in regards to Matthias Jablonka reference was in any case an internal one not meant to shed light on the global world which is far too expansive for such arguments. The Mattias Jablonka reference is an excellent one and represent valid human nature that should be embraced because that is what is ahead on many levels but it is also a distortion because human nature is by its basis a distortion.
rockman on Mon, 23rd Jan 2017 9:30 am
Kathy – Thanks for the link. And I did force myself to read it all. Lots of unique opinions…not a lot of facts IMHO. No, models are not facts…they are constructs based upon selected assumptions. But let’s jump to the heart of the predictions: “Civilization goes over the net energy cliff in 2022 — just 6 years away”. First, what is the net impact on the global economies of going over that “cliff”? The link seems to predict a significant breakdown of societies at least at a financial level. Correct me if that isn’t what THG etc are predicting.
So as simple question: why aren’t we already seeing signicant changes taking place? After all it’s actually just 5 years away now. True there are a variety of bad things happening in the world today but where are the impacts of the approach of the proposed zero net energy?
And if we aren’t seeing it yet then when: 1 year…3 years? Or does it not manifest itself for 4.9 years and then all hell breaks loose over the course of just a few months? After all it is suppose to be a “cliff” which implies we hit a significant tipping point at the last moment. Yet I see nothing in the entire dynamic pointing to it: exploration where EROIE has significantly increased in the last few years, oil rig counts while having fallen are still twice as high as the average from 2000 to 2010, oil prices (which have increased in the last year or so) that are remaining less the 50% of previous record levels, production which has increased in recent years, refining which is delivering record amounts of products, consumption which is also bouncing around record levels, etc.
Bottom line: do we really have to wait the entire 5 years to know if those predictions hold water? Or do the current dynamics point to a good bit of uncertainty? IOW using the “cliff” analogy is a bit of a cheat, isn’t it? If they have all that high power numerical support data why not post a chart showing BAU until we plunge into the abyssal depths of ruin?
Maybe they avoid that because the current conditions don’t support such a trend. And maybe that’s why a cliff model is used: can’t argue the prediction is erroneous because, like stepping on a landmine, the situation is that bad until you take last step. Until you hit that plunger you don’t know you’re in a killing field. LOL.
Or to ask that old question from the hamburger commercial: Where’s the beef?
yoshua on Mon, 23rd Jan 2017 10:30 am
Rockefeller here is sign that something is going down.
http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD
The global economy fell by 5.7% in dollar terms in 2015. Global trade was down as well in dollar terms.
Does this prove that the etp model is correct ? I don’t know. Does it prove that the net energy in oil production is falling ? I don’t know.
The oil price fell of a cliff in 2014-2015 and emerging markets currencies imploded with the falling oil price. Something is going down.
If the net energy from oil, nat gas and coal production are falling towards zero more or less at the same time then nothing can stop the global economy from total collapse. I know that much.
Nony on Mon, 23rd Jan 2017 10:48 am
The construction of LNG import terminals in mid 2000s is a matter of public record. So are the remarks of Alan Greenspan.
Peak oilers were big into peak gas also. ASPO was renamed to peak oil AND GAS.
Here is David Hughes, one of the most sober and quantitative peak oilers talking about North American peak gas in 2006:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=poRAEL7M9Ds
“expect declined production of 1.5 BCF/d per year”
“LNG terminals will be built in great numbers, but will be unable to keep up with demand.”
“shale and unconventional gas will not keep up with demand.”
And then what happened is the Marcellus kicked David Hughes’s ass. And he NEVER discusses his 2006 remarks. Where he was wrong, wrong, wrong.
Peak oil/gas is like a nutty cult religion. Always predicting Jesus’s return…and then changing the story when he doesn’t show up.
Kenz300 on Mon, 23rd Jan 2017 11:02 am
We used to worry about Climate Change then the RepubliCON party happened.
Ghung on Mon, 23rd Jan 2017 11:34 am
We used to worry about peak oil, then ZIRP, NIRP, massive debt, rising income inequality, Iraq, massive migrations, failed states, largely deluded populations, BREXIT, Trump…….. happened. Not that any of those things are related to peak oil.
Peak oil will take some time to shake out, but nobody will care much about peak oil at that point.
Davy on Mon, 23rd Jan 2017 11:34 am
Joshua, regarding your comment and ETP, you have to wonder about the ETP findings and connect some economic dots to see they are likely not helping the situation at a minimum. Even if the correlation is not completely accurate this is surely playing a role in systematic demand destruction. I have problems with models like ETP that reach maybe further than they should but that does not mean they are not telling us something significant. It does not mean they are not partially true. To dismiss the message because we don’t like how the messenger is setting us up for a backdoor failure. It is a convenient way for optimist here to dismiss the whole demand destruction premise because a model has some loose ends. I am on your wave length.
onlooker on Mon, 23rd Jan 2017 11:41 am
Well, we will soon know how the Global Economy did in 2016. If it fell once again we certainly can say we have a full blown global recession or depression on our hands. Does it prove Etp, probably by itself no. But it sure does tend to support its predictions and conclusions.
Cloggie on Mon, 23rd Jan 2017 12:01 pm
Clogo, you can keep reposting that silly old (2014) daily mail undersea coal gasification article every damn day, but the repetition will not increase the chances of it happening, nor will it cause any of the adults around here to believe it will ever happen. 2014 eh? So is there an update on how the dream is coming along?
The reason why I have posted that link several times is because there are still people here believing we are on the verge of running out of combustible material soon (thanks shortonoil!).
UK government has rejected developing UCG (for the moment):
http://tinyurl.com/hmxbgsp
Apparently they are confident they can get their energy from other sources.
If not, they can always change their mind.
These trillions of tons of coal won’t walk away.
diemos on Mon, 23rd Jan 2017 1:13 pm
“We should be thankful for the path technology is offering us to extend the fossil age a little”
Hallelujah. As I always say, ” as long as they can manage to keep the lights on and the convenience stores full of cheese doodles until I’m safely in the grave. I’m more than willing to settle for that.”
GregT on Mon, 23rd Jan 2017 1:35 pm
“The reason why I have posted that link several times is because there are still people here believing we are on the verge of running out of combustible material soon (thanks shortonoil!).”
Short has said nothing about running out of combustable materials cloggie. Being untruthful does nothing positive for your crediblity.
peakyeast on Mon, 23rd Jan 2017 1:36 pm
@GHung: “ZIRP, NIRP, massive debt, rising income inequality, Iraq, massive migrations, failed states, largely deluded populations, BREXIT, Trump”.
Or perhaps they DO?
The rising debt could because of Peak Oil in 1970s America – if the production curve had continued upwards until now I am pretty sure things would have been very different.
The ZIRP and NIRP is a result of the debt and lack of income.
The Iraq war may have happened because US dont have enough oil at home which is why ME got interesting in the first place.
The massive migrations – well at least some of them are because of lack of resources in those countries and the ones surrounding them. Others because US wanted Iraqi oil or a steady supply of Heroin or helping Europe getting Libyas oil.
The failed states – US geopolitics in MENA – which was initiated by the local PO.
BREXIT: Well perhaps not.
Trump? He is a result of the desperation in the population, which is a result of a bad economy which would have been better without local PO in the states.
😀
Remember: Peak oil is made up of many smaller peak oils.
yoshua on Mon, 23rd Jan 2017 1:38 pm
Davy – The etp model is basically just saying that it takes more and more energy to produce a resource that is depleting, in this case conventional crude oil, a energy recourse. As it takes more energy to produce crude oil, the net energy falls. In fact there is absolutely nothing strange about it.
yoshua on Mon, 23rd Jan 2017 1:40 pm
What is strange is my crap English.
Davy on Mon, 23rd Jan 2017 2:06 pm
Yosuha, it gets a little stranger when you start introducing prices into a model. Pricing opens a can of worms for the model in my opinion. I have no problem with the physics. Introducing human emotions into an equation is problematic as far as I am concerned. Price is part human nature when all is said and done. Price has a relationship with confidence.and confidence is liquidity.
J-Gav on Mon, 23rd Jan 2017 2:14 pm
Apnea,
Thanks for the heart-warming quote – I had a good laugh, sort of Cioran-like but heart-felt nevertheless.
pointer on Mon, 23rd Jan 2017 2:56 pm
“Only those who succeed at blocking their level of awareness and manage to construct a fallacious fantasy inside their minds, are able to enjoy the mundane and tedious routine of existence. For the rest, it’s all about a dreadful test of physical struggle and mental endurance.”
Hopefully Jablonka subsequently found a joyful middle way.
Cloggie on Mon, 23rd Jan 2017 3:03 pm
Short has said nothing about running out of combustable materials cloggie. Being untruthful does nothing positive for your crediblity.
Yes he does:
“Civilization goes over the net energy cliff in 2022 — just 6 years away
… excerpts from 3 posts by Louis Arnoux (see the full versions here) and a 1-hour video explaining the Hill’s group report here . Basically this explains the Net Energy Cliff and why it drops off so quickly rather than being a bell curve”
In 2022 we could be all f*, to borrow a phrase from our estimated and ever charming Friday, if we are to believe shortonoil.
But perhaps is my credibility, are rather my lack there of, more important than standing up for poor shortonoil.
#RenewableIsExtensionOfFossilFuel
Kathy C on Mon, 23rd Jan 2017 3:10 pm
Come on Davy, I know the whole world is not dire. But for a significant part of the world life is dire from day one. Those who live well have NO RIGHT to say that everything is fine. If it isn’t fine for everyone it isn’t fine.
Analogy, a family has 4 kids. Two get fed well, treated well, two get beat daily, raped and starved. Is that a good family. Looks that way from the perspective of the two privileged ones. Looks like a really crappy life from the other two, and more so because they see the others two living well. Might not the two who are mistreated and suffering wish the parents had never had any children at all. Looking from the outside, does the fate of the two who live well compensate for the fate of the two who barely live. Might we judge that the parents should never have had any kids at all. Better for the two lucky ones to be unborn (which causes them no suffering) than that the unlucky ones be born to such suffering.
I lived deep in the mountains of TN doing service work for several years. I saw dire poverty, but never anything like I saw in Haiti. Not close.
I worked in homeless shelters for years. The most disenfranchised people in this country have it better than many in Haiti, and since the earthquake I understand that things are even worse.
I maintain that the most miserable, maltreated humans on the planet are the only ones who have the right to say life is worth it despite their plight. I would be afraid to ask – they might spit in our faces if we did. I wouldn’t blame them.
I have seen people have to live in hell because others deem that life is always better than death. I used to visit a man in a nursing home who was at 35 paralysed from the neck down, couldn’t talk, couldn’t scratch his nose, and had frequent painful seizures. Couldn’t talk but he could scream. He could slightly nod yes or no. He almost choked on some food – eating his one pleasure. So the Dr.s “saved” him and put in a stomach tube. His wife asked them to take it out and let him eat again. The Drs asked him “did he want to eat” nod yes, “did he understand that he might die” nod yes, and then despite that they refused to remove the feeding tube and let him eat. Can’t let someone exit if they want because we are so desperate to convince ourselves that life is good. The good we get to experience is the carrot our brain gives us to go on living so we can replicate like all good Darwinian creatures. The fear of dying, fear of the pain of dying, resistance to self extinction, is the stick that our brain gives us to accomplish the same end.
Kathy C on Mon, 23rd Jan 2017 3:20 pm
Rockman, I haven’t followed peak oil for years. What I do know is that the signs that the climate is about to crash are numerous and increasing. Most people don’t have a clue because they aren’t following.
Unless we find significant new sources of oil (or the aliens finally give us zero point energy) it is not hard to see that the oil runs out sometime. We know the ERoEI of oil is going down. We know the population is going up – fast. Thus the net energy per capita has to have hit or will hit a peak. When we hit the cliff or the slide can be argued, but that we will is guaranteed.
Right now I am kicking myself for spending time blogging again. Gonna try and get some more of the good that supposedly justifies our human existence. So bye ya’ll have fun.
yoshua on Mon, 23rd Jan 2017 3:48 pm
Davy since oil is priced in dollars and since they wanted to see if the rising energy cost to produce a barrel of oil was showing up as an economic cost as a reference to the rising energy cost, I guess the dollar is the only available measurement stick.
If the production cost is what determines the price of a product, then the dollar price might actually be the best measurement stick there is on the economy side to show the total production cost.
Perhaps the net energy is also best shown on the economy side by the maximum affordability price in dollars that the economy can pay since it shows the goods and services the energy can produce.
But then again, how much confidence do you have in a fiat dollar that can be created endlessly out of thin air ?
The laws of physics can’t be corrupted but money is the mother of corruption.