US to ‘end 2018 as world’s top oil producer’

113 Comments on "US to ‘end 2018 as world’s top oil producer’"

Davy on Wed, 12th Dec 2018 6:46 am 



Peakers got it horribly wrong but the game is not over. Let’s see what happens in 2019 with a likely economic slowdown, possible low range bound prices, and surely a rationalization of high yield debt which frackers are handsomely known for.

Darrell Cloud on Wed, 12th Dec 2018 7:37 am 



The thing we all missed was the power of unlimited lines of credit. Oil can cost $500 a barrel to produce and be sold at a loss to a struggling market for $50 a barrel as long as the credit lines stay open. How long this magic can continue is anybody’s guess.

Dredd on Wed, 12th Dec 2018 9:04 am 



A message from Oil Qaeda’s The Warming Science Commentariat – 12 is supposed to be good news?

ANAL REAPER on Wed, 12th Dec 2018 9:37 am 



MY DICK HURTS.

Please SUCK it!

Niggers

rockman on Wed, 12th Dec 2018 9:38 am 



Darrel – Yes, some credit leverage. But IMHO you’re overemphasizing that factor. A huge % of capex spent has come from bond owners. While technically credit this is really capex INVESTED by bond INVESTORS. They are essentially investing in drilling hoping to earn returns at rates far above the Fed rate often tossed out by some. Anywhere from 3X to 8X the Fed rate. This is why bond INVESTORS typically have very little protection under US bankruptcy laws unlike lending institution.

Again back to the foolish statements made by so many pointing out the very low rates companies borrowed capex: the Fed rate. This shows a childlike misunderstanding of what the Fed rate represents. No company borrows money from any institution at the Fed rate:

In the United States, the federal funds rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions (banks and credit unions) lend reserve balances to other depository institutions overnight, on an uncollateralized basis.

It is not the rate any borrower gets from any depository institution: neither oil companies or any other company. Interest rates paid by those borrowers have been relatively low historically but not at the Fed rate. All one needs to do to confirm this is pull up the readily available interest rates of any public US company.

rockman on Wed, 12th Dec 2018 9:43 am 



Anal Reaper – Finally an intelligent poster with valuable thoughts to share. We are all internally grateful to you.

Enough said, right my fellow PO cohorts?

Anonymous on Wed, 12th Dec 2018 10:54 am 



STEO has reduced their DEC19 shale forecast from 12.4 MM bopd (last month estimate) to 12.1 (this month estimate). Both figures are higher than current production of 11.5. But the growth rate is expected to slow down.

Dropping price $20 has a big impact on shale. Yes, there is some “momentum” from existing projects–we saw that in 2015 as growth continued for about a half year after the price crash.

Personally, I think EIA is overconservative. I agree that price drop hurts but I was expecting higher growth than EIA, so even with some slowdown, I still am higher than them.

Given current price strip, I expect DEC18 to be ~12.1 MM bopd (half million higher than EIA). I think DEC19 will surprise at 13 MM bopd. Or almost a million more than EIA.

We will see though. And of course if prices drop into the 40s or rise into 60s, or higher, will change result.

Only other uncertainty is major pipeline delay in TX as I am relying on late 19 completions from the Permian.

I AM THE MOB on Wed, 12th Dec 2018 11:23 am 



Michael Cohen, ex-Trump lawyer, heading to prison for 3 years

https://globalnews.ca/news/4753925/michael-cohen-sentencing-prison/?utm_source=notification/

Michael Cohen said he would take a bullet for Donald Trump..

Well now he is going to take a dick!

Darrell Cloud on Wed, 12th Dec 2018 12:04 pm 



Rock, your insight is appreciated. I am an old history teachers who thought the system would roll over in 08. Lehman Brothers was the first in a series of dominoes that did not fall because of the magic of exponential debt.

Cloggie on Wed, 12th Dec 2018 1:29 pm 



“Anal Reaper – Finally an intelligent poster with valuable thoughts to share. We are all internally grateful to you.
Enough said, right my fellow PO cohorts?”

“Well now he is going to take a dick!”

Indeed rockman, we can only be greatful to “anal reaper”/I AM THE MOB, giving valuable insight in his spiritual life, very enriching indeed.

I’m sure someday we can return the favor and warm his heart, perhaps with a couple of christmas candles, wood for his fire place or simply having him at the receiving end of a solid German flame thrower, that warmed the hearts of endless numbers of Soviet commissars during christmas time (or any time for that matter).

David Thompson on Wed, 12th Dec 2018 4:47 pm 



Look at world oil discoveries since the 1960’s to date. It has been all down hill. The only real increase in production this decade has come from fracking.

makati1 on Wed, 12th Dec 2018 5:22 pm 



When the SHTF and the US economy collapse’, so will the oil production. It only exists on cheap credit and suckers who still believe they can get rich without working. Waiting for the SPLAT! when that happens. Sooner rather than later, I think.

Davy on Wed, 12th Dec 2018 5:27 pm 



SHTF over in Asia right now billy so wait your turn. LOL

Davy on Wed, 12th Dec 2018 5:37 pm 



Oops sorry billy. I meant to say the Trump has hit the fan over in Asia.

I wouldn’t be overly concerned if I was you though. China has been around for several thousand years longer then the US has, and this made in the USA shit is going to backfire big time right back into our dumbass faces.

JuanP 12th Jul 2016 on Wed, 12th Dec 2018 5:42 pm 



And Davy’s comment on China is spot on. When the global economy crashes China will suffer more than most other countries and its manufacturing will collapse because global supply chains and export markets will go up in smoke.

JuanP 13th Jul 2016 on Wed, 12th Dec 2018 5:45 pm 



China’s economy is highly dependent on the global systems functioning. China is overpopulated and destroying its environment faster than almost every other country in the world. China is facing a brutal contraction and collapse. China needs to import food and energy to get by, and won’t be able to for much longer. China has a significant surplus of young males as a consequence of its one child policy and a traditional cultural preference for male sons to take care of the family graves. China is in an awful lot of trouble.

Duncan Idaho on Wed, 12th Dec 2018 5:54 pm 



” How can we develop a workable strategy for movement-building and coalition-nurturing in a broader political culture that thrives on the psychology of possessive individualism? How can we bring together a diverse array of agendas and constituencies without obsessing over the disabling complex of small-bore purity tests and deviation-spotting that Sigmund Freud memorably dubbed the “narcissism of small differences”? How can we affirm the messy human quest for pleasure and sardonic wit along the oft-competing mandate for vigilance and ideological rigor? Most of all, how can we transcend the subcultural left, stop acting like power is a dirty word, and go about seizing it in the service of a socialist future for all?”

makati1 on Wed, 12th Dec 2018 6:16 pm 



It is a shame that some here are destroying this site just like Trump is destroying America. Insanity, immaturity, lack of intelligence, arrogance, and just plain stupidity. All the current hallmarks of America.

Эй, братья, пожалуйста, ударьте антиамериканскую собаку, которую я сделал из гранитного форума on Wed, 12th Dec 2018 7:11 pm 



aswange you’re the biggest poser here because you paraded your ownership of a farm irl!, then came virtual farming, and then foraging. You’re not accountable for any of the above because you sit on the computer all day long expelling hot air.

u have nothing other than being the biggest drama queen and I’ve came into contact with too many of your types unfortunately.

supertard in contrast – have a farm, a wife, and tons of goats who farm for him. It’s all equivalent whether one uses own muscles or using animals to put food on the table.

I’m a tard and a former paultard – a convenient target to blame for destroying this forum. But reality shows I’ve been away for a week while you never miss a beat.

so yah you’re the destroyer of PO dot com aswang.

onlooker on Wed, 12th Dec 2018 7:18 pm 



Yes, it is a shame given the interesting topics and news stories that name calling and ad hominems have become so pervasive here. I think more than a few potential posters have been repelled away.

makati1 on Wed, 12th Dec 2018 7:51 pm 



onlooker, I don’t bother to comment or debate much anymore and visit the site less and less. Some, like Davy, MOB and Boris above, are nothing more than immature, spoiled brats who are frustrated because no one will believe their bullshit and they cannot reach out and hit us.

They must live terrible lives to be so hateful and jealous of others that they want to putdown or ruin everything they touch. As if they are the only ones who know what is happening and where the best place to live in today’s world is. Not even willing to agree to disagree. Pure delusional arrogance or is it successful brainwashing?

onlooker on Wed, 12th Dec 2018 8:05 pm 



Makati, I have to give you credit, you have in all your posts described well the many pathologies of Americans and harm the US Empire has done around the world. While we don’t always agree, we both have overcome the brainwashing that one is subject to living in the West and thus have a more accurate assessment of world affairs

Davy's sock Boris on Wed, 12th Dec 2018 8:08 pm 



Эй, братья, пожалуйста, ударьте антиамериканскую собаку, которую я сделал из гранитного форума on Wed, 12th Dec 2018 7:11 pm

Davy on Wed, 12th Dec 2018 8:13 pm 



” I think more than a few potential posters have been repelled away.”

Shutup dumbass. The only poster that matters here is me. Nobody else is allowed to express there own personal opinions unless there opinions agree with mine.

Anonymouse on Wed, 12th Dec 2018 8:16 pm 



uS to end 2018 as worlds top BULLSHITER.

All fixed. Welcome.

Davy on Wed, 12th Dec 2018 8:36 pm 



One more thing dumlooker. You and you’re gang aren’t very smart obv. I’ve castrated you dumbasses thousands of times now but you still manage to voice your opinions. Talk about stupid.

makati1 on Wed, 12th Dec 2018 9:21 pm 



onlooker, the only place most people agree is in the brainwashed US. Well, they agree on what their masters want them to agree on, like: China bad! Russia bad! Iran bad! Israel good! Saudi Arabia good! Etc. We do not always agree, but We don’t resort to immature putdowns to argue our point. Cloggie and I have agreed to disagree on several points, but on others we are in total agreement, just like you and I.

I learn from reading the viewpoint of others and try to research my proposals with reputable references, mostly outside the USMSM. If you take the view of one witness to an accident, you get a two dimensional picture. If you take the view point of 100 witnesses, you get a clearer, 3D view that is much closer to the truth. That is what I try to do.

I read current events for several hours everyday from multiple sources. I think I have a pretty accurate picture of the world today and coming events. We shall see. Have a great day!

Pete Bauer on Wed, 12th Dec 2018 9:43 pm 



China’s auto sales suffered 14% decrease while the plugin vehicle sales increased 36%.
Yes, they sold 169,000 vehicles last month which is nearly 4 times as that of USA.
Now you know that oil consumption will grow somewhat slowly.

Pete Bauer on Wed, 12th Dec 2018 9:44 pm 



Gradually Methanol production is increasing and this will be used to make petrochemicals which will reduce the oil consumption to some extent.
In China, the Methanol is blended with gasoline and used as transport fuel.

Mike Hunt on Wed, 12th Dec 2018 9:58 pm 



I’ve been searching the forum here, but for the life of me I am unable to figure one thing out.

Who, or what, is aswang?

Does anybody know?

Mike Hunt on Wed, 12th Dec 2018 10:11 pm 



Sorry for the stupid question everyone. I just did an Internet search, and apparently an aswang is an imaginary creature in Phillipino folk lore. Something like a werewolf in western mythology. I’m still having difficulty understanding what the weird guy from Russia is going on about though. Maybe something was lost in the translation?

makati1 on Wed, 12th Dec 2018 10:58 pm 



Mike, you are getting a taste of what us “old-timers” have been putting up with for many months now. I can explain that “aswang” is me. I’m not sure who the childish person is behind the Cyrillic persona is but he is using it to put me down. I live in the Philippines and he disagrees with just about everything I post. He, and a few others here, is destroying the site. I never considered that it was a real name or looked it up. It was not that important.

Cloggir on Thu, 13th Dec 2018 12:06 am 



“I’m not sure who the childish person is behind the Cyrillic persona is ”

Paultard

print baby print on Thu, 13th Dec 2018 1:13 am 



Darrel you are so wright . Rockman I tought you are in oil industry not finance. What are you saying about fed is anyone guess , no one knows what are they doing , but I am sure nothing pretty

The Truth Shall Set You Free on Thu, 13th Dec 2018 3:00 am 



@ Mike Hunt

Let me bring you up to speed in reference, ” I’m still having difficulty understanding what the weird guy from Russia is going on about though. Maybe something was lost in the translation?”

The freak from Russia is a poser. He’s an American pretending. His previous screen name was “Former Retarded Paul”. Yes, he self-identifies as a retard, and frequently serves as Davy’s alter-ego, although it’s just as likely “they” are in reality “Davy” using one of his many sock puppets.

deadly on Thu, 13th Dec 2018 3:08 am 



One thing about crude oil, petroleum: there is a lot of it.

Over at oilprice.com there is a comment section that is really good reading, the content is spot on.

I don’t comment there, just read.

At notrickszone dot com, there was an article concerning oil formation, whether or not it is abiogenic in nature. The heat of the earth, pressure, existence of a carbon source, organic content, most likely, and hydrogen, sourced from water, under proper conditions, you will have long carbon chains with hydrogen atoms attached to the carbon atoms making hydrocarbons. It’s that easy.

Two atoms, carbon and hydrogen, combined, one carbon, four hydrogens, you got your methane. Just need a planet like earth to help it along and voila, oil from rocks.

Whether or not crude oil can form without organic content hundreds of millions of years old can be a mystery. A question worth considering and maybe the answer is carbon and hydrogen can form oil without organic content present to make it happen.

Thank the universe for forming carbon and hydrogen, two atoms that come in handy to make the modern world like it is now. Without those two atoms, you wouldn’t exist, since you need carbon to form your body, carbon is a must. The universe is 95 percent hydrogen, so you can’t really go wrong there.

Life ain’t much if you don’t have water.

Some crazy minds out there that will think out of the box and consider other possibilities.

The earth is flat, it is the center of the universe, everything revolves around the earth.

The Pope is the one with the authority, direct from God Himself, so don’t be going all heretic like Galileo. You can’t be too careful with people like Galileo around.

Humans can think of the dumbest things and they do.

Here’s a good one: “We say, pronounce, sentence, and declare, that thou, the said Galileo, by the things deduced during this trial, and by thee confessed as above, hast rendered thyself vehemently suspected of heresy by this Holy Office, that is, of having believed and held a doctrine which is false, and contrary to the Holy Scriptures, to wit: that the Sun is the centre of the universe, and that it does not move from east to west, and that the Earth moves and is not the centre of the universe.”

That’s why the world is in the shape its in today.

“I do not feel obliged to believe that the same God who has endowed us with sense, reason, and intellect has intended us to forgo their use.” – Galileo Galilei

Science has come a long ways, however, humans remain stupid. lol

Antius on Thu, 13th Dec 2018 4:31 am 



Back to the topic of Peak Oil: For all intents and purposes it has arrived! This SRSRocco report provides some interesting graphs showing the production of oil products (fuel oil, diesel & gasoline) since 2002.

https://srsroccoreport.com/has-peak-diesel-arrived-the-data-doesnt-look-good/

The production of liquid products is far more useful in assessing the energy supply situation than simple oil production volumes, given that products are the things we actually use.

The conclusion: Something broke in 2007. At this point, it became very difficult to expand the production of heavy oil products like diesel and fuel oil and increasingly, refineries had to crack fuel oils to produce diesel. They managed to kick the can down the road doing this until 2015, at which point cracking of fuel oils could no longer inflate total diesel supply. Global diesel production appears to have peaked in 2015.

Why is this a problem? Diesel and fuel oil are the fuels that power the world’s trade networks. They fuel the ships and planes that carry goods between continents and the trains and trucks that carry goods within nations. Just as importantly, they provide the fuel for mining. Gasoline and LPG are consumer fuels, which tend to power private cars and light trucks. Peak diesel basically means peak trade, peak production of real goods and hence, peak ‘real GDP’ for the entire world. It is probably no coincidence that international politics have turned increasingly sour since 2015.

Why has non-conventional oil production not come to the rescue? Non-conventional oil production such as shale oil (tight oil) and natural gas liquids; tend to produce light oils and condensates, which are generally suitable for the production of gasoline and LPG. These allow you to drive to work or to drive for pleasure. But they do not deliver real goods or power the mining equipment needed to produce the ores needed to make them. In some important ways, tight oil production may be worsening the global situation, give that high value diesel is being used to produce lower grade light liquids.

The final graph in the Sorocco report shows an apparent peak in total refined liquids production around early 2016. Total liquids production has declined about 7% since then. Looking at the fuel oil production graph, actual ‘peak oil’ can be considered to have occurred around mid-2008. Non-conventional resources appear to have been of little value in extending the supply of the economically valuable ‘trade fuels’, hence the virtual absence of any real economic growth in the western world since 2008.

Davy on Thu, 13th Dec 2018 5:38 am 



“Yes, it is a shame given the interesting topics and news stories that name calling and ad hominems have become so pervasive here. I think more than a few potential posters have been repelled away.”

There you go kissing billy’s ass onlooker then enabling his bad behavior then you brag about yourself how you are not brainwashed. Billy cuts people and nations down and talks himself up. That is bad behavior and you like it. That says something about you. Why not mention JuanP and his identity theft and socks which are all over the board now?

This is JuanP on Thu, 13th Dec 2018 5:43 am 



“Davy on Wed, 12th Dec 2018 8:36 pm One more thing dumlooker. You and you’re gang aren’t very smart obv. I’ve castrated you dumbasses thousands of times now but you still manage to voice your opinions. Talk about stupid.”

JuanP identity theft on Thu, 13th Dec 2018 5:44 am 



Davy on Wed, 12th Dec 2018 8:13 pm
Davy on Wed, 12th Dec 2018 8:36 pm

This is JuanP on Thu, 13th Dec 2018 5:45 am 



Mike Hunt on Wed, 12th Dec 2018 9:58 pm
Mike Hunt on Wed, 12th Dec 2018 10:11 pm
The Truth Shall Set You Free on Thu, 13th Dec 2018 3:00 am

Davy on Thu, 13th Dec 2018 6:10 am 



“Why has non-conventional oil production not come to the rescue? Non-conventional oil production such as shale oil (tight oil) and natural gas liquids; tend to produce light oils and condensates, which are generally suitable for the production of gasoline and LPG…..The final graph in the Sorocco report shows an apparent peak in total refined liquids production around early 2016. Total liquids production has declined about 7% since then.”

Thanks, Antius, for one getting back on topic and two highlighting another peak oil dynamics. I have tried to tell our board peak oil bashers that PO is still alive and well it is just the traditional peak oil message was flawed. They won that argument and I bow my head because I was a strong proponent of peak oil doom early on. The drastic and immediate peak oil message was wrong. The longer term PO message along with other converging problems are now the problem. If we can keep from blowing ourselves up in needless wars then we must begin the mitigation of declining net energy and the unsustainable economic arrangements of globalism and overpopulation. Unending growth and continued environmental disregard will bite us soon. We can lower the effects and push out the outcome but we cannot leave the consequences. Fracking has bought us time but it has not saved us. Renewables and EV’s have come to the rescue but they will likely not save us. Show where emissions have dropped and show me where the dramatic fossil fuel drop is? It hasn’t happened even though renewables are coming on strong now. Personally my doom meter has changed to the positive but I still find no signs of long term optimism. We found a cocktail of drugs for a terminal condition and for some reason many think we are cured.

I AM THE MOB on Thu, 13th Dec 2018 6:36 am 



Davy

You are a dumb fucking idiot..We are headed for a global oil shortage in a few years. And that will collapse the world economy .Renewable’s can’t save us because they produce electricity and oil is used for transportation…

You are energy illiterate..The board duffus!

I AM THE MOB on Thu, 13th Dec 2018 7:13 am 



ECB to stop its printing presses even as concerns grow

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ecb-policy-idUSKBN1OB2YD

Europe is going to collapse when they take it off life support..We will steal their industries again!

LMFAO!

Antius on Thu, 13th Dec 2018 7:17 am 



“Thanks, Antius, for one getting back on topic and two highlighting another peak oil dynamics. I have tried to tell our board peak oil bashers that PO is still alive and well it is just the traditional peak oil message was flawed. They won that argument and I bow my head because I was a strong proponent of peak oil doom early on. The drastic and immediate peak oil message was wrong.”

The figures in Sorocco report, assuming they are correct, essentially prove that the original peak oil message had it about right. The unconventional production that has exploded in volume since 2008 is not producing the type of fuels that the physical economy needs to mine materials and transport real goods.

We are now about ten years past the peak crude date. The economic decline and political turmoil that we are now seeing would appear to be a direct result of the peaking of surplus energy. The establishment has responded by spending borrowed money and inflating the total money supply. This has resulted in asset bubbles and continuing slow growth in the service economy. But it is fake growth; the predictable result of an increasing volume of borrowed money cycling back into the economy. That is why it now takes several dollars of borrowed money to produce a single dollar of growth.

The really telling thing is that none of the growth has occurred in real goods in the US and a shrinking proportion of growth in China is in the form of real goods. As the real economy is presently stagnant or shrinking and debt continues to grow, it should be clear that none of the money presently being borrowed by any government will ever be paid back. We are headed for sovereign debt crises in the western world and a banking crisis in China.

Antius on Thu, 13th Dec 2018 7:25 am 



Mob, in the modern world, money flows over borders. The ECB started quantitative easing at around the time that the fed started winding it down. Given that oil and many other commodities are traded in dollars, which EU entities must trade for Euros, what do you think is going to happen to the value of the dollar, now that ECB quantitative easing is ending?

Davy on Thu, 13th Dec 2018 8:03 am 



We are headed for a global oil shortage in a few years. And that will collapse the world economy .Renewable’s can’t save us because they produce electricity and oil is used for transportation…”

What is a few years MOB? Anybody here that use words like “will” concerning the future generally is peddling an agenda. Mob, you are mostly illiterate in regards to knowing what is going on. You are invested in collapse so you peddle it despite the direction of the world.

Antius on Thu, 13th Dec 2018 9:29 am 



Davy, read the SRSocco report.

https://srsroccoreport.com/has-peak-diesel-arrived-the-data-doesnt-look-good/

We have been living through a global oil shortage since 2007. Since then, the most economically important finished fuels (i.e. diesel and fuel oil – the things that power mining and the global transport system for goods) have experienced supply constraints.

Conventional oil shortages triggered the 2008 financial crisis. Real GDP growth has stalled since then. Unconventional oil has not been an effective substitute when it comes to manufacturing diesel, which is what the wealth generating parts of the economy (the ones that make and distribute real goods) actually run on. At best, unconventional oil has allowed conventional oil refining to focus on diesel rather than gasoline. That strategy appeared to hit its limits around 2013 – about the same time as global trade started declining. Coincidence?

Davy on Thu, 13th Dec 2018 9:39 am 



“Davy, read the SRSocco report.”
I did read it and bookmarked the site

“Conventional oil shortages triggered the 2008 financial crisis.”
That is only part of the problem Antius. It is too simple a proposition to blame all of the ongoing low level civilization crisis on conventional PO peaking.

print baby print on Thu, 13th Dec 2018 11:01 am 



Antius very good comments