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Page added on February 10, 2016
US Shale Oil Output To Double By 2035
U.S. shale oil production will double over the next 20 years as drillers that became more efficient amid a slump in oil prices unlock new resources, British energy giant BP said on Wednesday.
In its industry benchmark 2035 Energy Outlook, BP forecast global demand for energy to increase by 34 percent, driven by growth in the world population and economy, with the share of oil declining in favour of gas and renewables.
U.S. shale or tight oil production using fracking technology was a key driver behind global supply growth in recent years. The sector, with relatively expensive production costs, has nevertheless been hard hit by a 70 percent decline in oil prices over the past 18 months to around $30 a barrel.
But in the longer term, shale production is set to grow from around 4 million barrels per day (bpd) today to 8 million bpd in the 2030s, accounting for almost 40 percent of U.S. production, according to the report.
“We see U.S. tight oil falling over the coming years but thereafter tight oil picks up,” BP Chief Economist Spencer Dale said.
U.S. onshore production in the lower 48 states has declined by around 500,000 bpd since last spring and is expected to fall further in the near term as the global market readjusts before rebounding, Dale said.
According to the report, “technological innovation and productivity gains have unlocked vast resources of tight oil and shale gas, causing us to revise the outlook for U.S. production successively higher”.
Globally, tight oil production will rise by 5.7 million bpd to 10 million bpd but remain primarily concentrated in the United States.
The head of Russian state-run oil company Rosneft, in which BP holds a near 20 percent stake, said on Wednesday he expected U.S. shale oil production to peak by 2020 and decline in the long term.
Dale also said global oil demand, which grew by 1.8 million bpd last year, would continue to grow “strongly” this year albeit at a slower pace.
“The market is responding very clearly to lower oil prices,” Dale said.
Higher Efficiencies
Fossil fuels, which include oil, gas and coal, will remain the dominant source of energy, accounting for around 80 percent of energy supplies in 2035. Gas remains the fastest-growing fossil fuel, rising by 1.8 percent per year compared to oil’s 0.9 percent growth.
Coal is set to be the main casualty of the world’s shift towards cleaner forms of energy, as its share in the energy mix is set to drop to an all-time low by 2035.
Renewable sources of energy such as solar and wind are projected to grow at around 6.6 percent per year, increasing their share in the energy mix from 3 percent today to 9 percent.
Yet at the current projection, the world is far from meeting goals set by the United Nations to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels by the end of the decade.
While gross domestic product should more than double over the period, energy demand will grow by only one third due to higher energy efficiency and changes in economies such as China, which will become less energy-intensive, Dale said.
Much of the demand growth will be driven by an expansion of the global vehicle fleet, which will double by 2035 from around 1.2 billion today to 2.4 billion.
“Unless the global economy grows far more slowly than anybody thinks, you will get material growth in energy demand over the next 20 years,” Dale said.
23 Comments on "US Shale Oil Output To Double By 2035"
onlooker on Wed, 10th Feb 2016 6:31 pm
That remains to be seen considering the already tenuous position of the world economy, the EROEI of Shale and all other economic considerations. 2035 is still a ways off and based on the trajectory we may be staggering quite a bit come 2035.
Apneaman on Wed, 10th Feb 2016 6:44 pm
There won’t be an America in 2035 or any “oil industry”. The future of apes is in the Arctic and nothing a bunch of retard cancer monkeys does matters. Politics, industry, environmentalism, solar panels, Jesus, guns & ammo, etc, etc will be rendered meaningless. It’s already well under way and cannot be stopped so dream your dreams while you can. By 2020, if we haven’t had a nuclear war, there will not be a single doubter or denier or minimizer left. Lots of gnashers of teeth though. Drill Baby Drill while you still can cancer monkeys.
bug on Wed, 10th Feb 2016 6:54 pm
I am so relieved, wonder what the 2036 Escalade will look like or the F350 with duallees?
RickRod on Wed, 10th Feb 2016 7:06 pm
This prediction is possible if the tap of free money remains on for the next 20 years. The US can produce lots of oil even if prices are $10.00 a barrel because profits don’t matter anymore in our new economy.
onlooker on Wed, 10th Feb 2016 7:08 pm
AP, I would not bet against your position or views in regards to the timetable of events.
makati1 on Wed, 10th Feb 2016 7:56 pm
Ap, you are probably correct. I don’t see The US celebrating their 260th birthday as a nation. If it does, it will be a lowly 3rd world country with Asia owning the important stuff that is left. Just as the West has owned the good stuff in their colonies for the last 300 years or so.
I would be 92 in 2036 so there is a slim chance I will be here to see if you are correct. IF the nukes don’t fall or the nuke plants are not abandoned first, that is. We shall see.
Truth Has A Liberal Bias on Wed, 10th Feb 2016 9:15 pm
Hey Apneaman, Will there be capitalism in the Arctic in 2035? Can I trade my can of soup for a blow job or a ride on my boat for two chickens or are you picturing some other economic system will be in place in the Arctic in 2035? Your predictions are kinda short on details. Are you predicting communism perhaps? Eurosocialsim? What’s it gonna be Ap?
Truth Has A Liberal Bias on Wed, 10th Feb 2016 9:29 pm
Guns & ammo won’t be meaningless Ap. Never have been for as long as they’ve existed. The invention of the six shooter really changed the balance of power once it was available. If you knew anything about history you’d know that. Ammo is literally stored energy packaged behind a force concentrating device. The firearm directs the force very accurately. It’s been a game changer for a long time now. You really have some fucked up ideas about how the world works. See ya in the Arctic retard. Or maybe I’ll see you but you won’t see me if you know what I’m saying 🙂
http://youtu.be/KCfYWELLwZY
GregT on Wed, 10th Feb 2016 9:38 pm
“You really have some fucked up ideas about how the world works.”
And you appear to have no idea at all about how the world works. I’ll give you a clue; The world doesn’t need guns and ammo to wipe us out. Guns and ammo are meaningless against the forces of nature, as are human beings.
Truth Has A Liberal Bias on Wed, 10th Feb 2016 9:50 pm
I won’t be using the guns and ammo to defend myself from the forces of nature. I’ll be using them to defend myself from fellow human beings should we experience a population bottleneck. You and Ap are all well and good at the doom-porn circle jerk but your opinions indicate you have a very poor grasp of history, human nature and future trends analysis. I’m guessing that from all the adolescent angst that you and Ap are a couple of angry young white boys who feel like failures in their own community so you fantasize about destruction of a system that doesn’t validate you or value you. You really are just a couple of fuck-ups.
Apneaman on Wed, 10th Feb 2016 10:09 pm
Truth, thanks fer learning me up about firearms and ammunition, but you wasted your time. See, I grew up in the Canadian Rockies in British Columbia and we started young. Hunted all over this province and Alberta and even some down in Georgia. I’ve done plenty of killing and shooting, but I just don’t have the need to brag about owning guns every 3rd comment. Not insecure that way I guess. Hey if it helps soothe your anxieties and fears about the coming troubles then have at her. May I suggest to stop watching prepper tv and US history channel docs? They just make that shit up you know. The real truth is no one has yet gone through a global collapse of industrial civilization, so many scenarios are mere extrapolations and projected fears.
Maybe you won’t see me?
https://youtu.be/2ozRkBMtr10?t=58
Truth Has A Liberal Bias on Wed, 10th Feb 2016 10:22 pm
I don’t have a TV. You really are bad at this Ap.
Truth Has A Liberal Bias on Wed, 10th Feb 2016 10:24 pm
Hey Apneaman, Will there be capitalism in the Arctic in 2035? Can I trade my can of soup for a blow job or a ride on my boat for two chickens or are you picturing some other economic system will be in place in the Arctic in 2035? Your predictions are kinda short on details. Are you predicting communism perhaps? Eurosocialsim? What’s it gonna be Ap?
Truth Has A Liberal Bias on Wed, 10th Feb 2016 10:48 pm
AP said “The real truth is no one has yet gone through a global collapse of industrial civilization, so many scenarios are mere extrapolations and projected fears.”
So does that mean you’re gonna shut up about it then? I fuckin doubt it lol
You only have to have a grasp of history and a sense of pattern recognition to come up with some rough ideas about what collapse is going to likely include. Population bottle neck is one of the more probable features. Guns & ammo will probably become extremely useful in a population bottleneck. Perhaps you’re anticipating socialism and sharing parties, or perhaps you’re gonna just lay down and die, but anybody interested in preps should probably tool up.
GregT on Wed, 10th Feb 2016 10:57 pm
“AP, I would not bet against your position or views in regards to the timetable of events.”
Nor would I onlooker. Sadly.
Apneaman on Wed, 10th Feb 2016 11:06 pm
Oh I think I have a rough idea what history has shown happens. How about the Vandals and the Visigoths? Or the Sea peoples? Or many others? Ever notice how the histories never talk about, Mad Max or lone wolf preppers? Plenty written about tribes and gangs. That’s because the Mad Max’s are a cultural constructs born from the cult of western individualism and popularized in movies. Also, a population bottleneck is wishful thinking. Apes are an evolutionary dead end. Less than a century till the last one dies. Tool up for human extinction.
GregT on Wed, 10th Feb 2016 11:16 pm
“anybody interested in preps should probably tool up.”
Been there done that, a long time ago. That was before I became aware of how serious the human predicament really is. Tools are not going to change our situation at all. Much too late for that now.
shortonoil on Thu, 11th Feb 2016 8:09 am
“U.S. shale oil production will double over the next 20 years as drillers that became more efficient amid a slump in oil prices unlock new resources, British energy giant BP said on Wednesday.”
What damned shale from the start was that it had a different molecular structure than conventional crude. But Dale is an economist, and reality should never be allowed to stand in the way of a well drawn supply/ demand curve. As the noose tightens he will next be able to prove that gravity has taken a vacation!
Cloud9 on Thu, 11th Feb 2016 8:19 am
Right this moment, the lights are still on. The cup of hot chocolate is warm and life is good. We are all pontificating about a future we can only imagine. That being said, due to the factor of 3, things will sort out rather quickly for large portions of stranded populations. Three minutes without air, three days without water and three weeks without food are the generally accepted tipping points. There are over two and a half million people in Miami alone. Can you imagine what will happen to that population when the system breaks, money dies, supply chains break and the lights go out? We will shed our old people of which I am one very rapidly. Then we will shed those dependent on medication. All along the way we will shed the stupid and unprepared.
In January this year, enough guns and ammunition were sold to arm almost everyone in the Miami Dade area. That is almost the size of the German Army that devastated Russia in Operation Barbarossa. If you don’t think fire arms will figure into this unraveling you are naive. Guns last a very long time. I have an Eddystone Enfield manufactured in 1918 that is in as issued condition. It is very accurate and will kill you deader than a hammer at 300 yards. I just put a 308 bushing in the cleaning kit in the buttstock so my grandson will have the option of two calibers in the future. Ammunition for the Great War was still viable in the 80’s having a shelf life of more than 60 years. There are billions of rounds stored in American closets.
Homeland Security, the Pentagon and the CDC are all warning the public to prepare for the zombie apocalypse. The normalcy biased and the situationally unaware blow these warnings off as a joke. Those that are aware understand that the word zombie is a metaphor describing the destitute, desperate horde that will pour out of the city centers when the system breaks. If by luck and pluck and preparation you can avoid joining the zombie horde for six months, then the survival rate for you and yours will go up exponentially. Make your own choices, I have made mine.
PracticalMaina on Thu, 11th Feb 2016 9:32 am
Cloud9, luckily as soon as people are reduced to a diet of whatever is growing or moving outside, they will get much healthier
PracticalMaina on Thu, 11th Feb 2016 9:33 am
As far as people with cholesterol or diet based ailments, as far as anti depressants, I think our current lifestyles are a driver behind those as well.
Kenz300 on Sun, 14th Feb 2016 10:28 am
Half of U.S. Fracking Industry Could Go Bankrupt as Oil Prices Continue to Fall
http://ecowatch.com/2016/01/18/fracking-industry-bankrupt/?utm_source=EcoWatch+List&utm_campaign=bddf330f10-Top_News_1_18_2016&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_49c7d43dc9-bddf330f10-86023917
Kenz300 on Sun, 14th Feb 2016 10:29 am
Electric cars, bikes and mass transit are the future…..fossil fuel ICE cars are the past…………..
Think teen agers vs your grand father………………….
cell phones vs land lines…….