There is new data out today. The EIA published their International Petroleum Statistics yesterday. The EIA also published their Drilling Productivity Report which gave their expected shale oil and gas production through September. Then this morning OPEC published their Monthly Oil Marketing Report with OPEC crude only production numbers through July.
First the Drilling Productivity Report. Of course most of the Drilling Productivity Report is projection, not history. And that projection goes through September 2015.
The EIA has the Bakken peaking in December and declining 107 thousand barrels per day since that point. A secondary peak was reached in April and declining steadily since then.
The EIA has Eagle Ford peaking in March and declining 226 thousand barrels per day since that point.
The EIA has Niobrara peaking in March, almost flat for one month then declining sharply after that for a total decline of 75 thousand barrels per day after that.
The Permian was the only major shale area with no decline so far. The EIA has the Permian up 29 thousand barrels per day since the rest of the field, combined, peaked in April.
The EIA has total shale peaking in April at 5,434000 bpd and declining by 360 thousand barrels per day by September to 5,074000 bpd. 360,000 barrels per day is quite a decline by September.
All EIA data below is through April 2015.
The EIA’s International Petroleum Statistics has data only through April, 2015, the month where they have total shale production peaking. World C+C production reached a new peak in April at 79,996,000 barrels per day. It is unlikely that this peak will hold as OPEC production was up 437,000 bpd from April to June.
Non-OPEC C+C production peaked in December 2014 at 47,186,000 bpd and had declined by 230,000 bpd by April. I believe this will be the final non-OPEC peak. By the end of the year US production will be down by .5 million barrels per day and the rest of non-OPEC will also be down by at least that amount. And even if higher prices turn US production around the rest of Non-OPEC will continue to decline.
From December to April US production was up 307,000 bpd bun during that same period the rest of non-OPEC production was down 537,000 bpd. It is very likely that this non USA, non-OPEC production decline will accelerate at the very time US production decline is also accelerating.
All OPEC data below is crude only through July 2015.
OPEC production still increasing through July. OPEC Crude only increased by 101,000 bpd in July to 31,513,000 bpd. That was less than one third the 317,000 bpd increase in June.
The OPEC increase has all been the Saudi and Iraq show. From January thru July OPEC 12 was up 1,355,000 bpd. During that same period Saudi and Iraq was up 1,384,000 bpd.
During that same January thru July period the rest of OPEC was down 29,000 bpd.
Iranian production is creeping up. They are now just short of 200,000 barrels per day above their low of 2,665,000 bpd of October 2012. Their output now stands at 2,861,000 barrels per day.
Here we have OPEC production according to secondary sources as well as OPEC production according to the producing nations themselves. Note that the secondary sources said Saudi was up 39,200 bpd in July while Saudi said their production was down 202,700 bpd in July.
The page OPEC Charts has been updated with the July data.
Plantagenet on Tue, 11th Aug 2015 5:24 pm
Good to see US TOS heading down. But KSA and Iraq are still increasing, along with Iran so the world is still in an oil glut.
Beery on Tue, 11th Aug 2015 5:41 pm
I see Planttheideaofaglut is still on message.
Plantagenet on Tue, 11th Aug 2015 5:48 pm
I see Beerytheideaofablackout is still blasted on beer.
You can object to the facts as much as you like, but the facts are still the facts, thank goodness. This article shows that world oil supply continues to grow and the world remains in an oil glut.
Oil prices dropped again today. Dig it.
CHEERS!
Truth Has A Liberal Bias on Tue, 11th Aug 2015 5:52 pm
What’s with Plant and the glut? Is he OCD? The oil market is in a glut. Yeah we get it. It’s a supply-demand thing I learnt about in high school economics. Are you done? What’s the point of repeating your point so often?
Apneaman on Tue, 11th Aug 2015 5:59 pm
KunstlerCast 269 — Steve Ludlum of the Economic Undertow Blog
“Also known as Steve From Virginia, this week’s guest has a unique take on the nexus of energy, capital, and the destiny of industrial civilization. Steve writes: “The credit regime is falling apart under the weight of its own costs, not just in Europe. Government issue money ends a monopoly over a vital private good so that it becomes a public good, in this way the power of the banks to run our affairs is reduced. As a necessary component of this effort, the establishment must hold the financiers accountable for their crimes and negligence. The present conditions and schemes cannot be endured any longer. If the establishment refuses to act the citizens will take matters into their own hands, there will be revolutions.”
http://kunstler.com/podcast/kunstlercast-269-steve-ludlum-of-the-economic-undertow-blog/
shortonoil on Tue, 11th Aug 2015 6:25 pm
“The EIA has the Bakken peaking in December and declining 107 thousand barrels per day since that point.”
At that rate the EIA is projecting shale production will reach zero in about 12 years. At $43/ barrel it will be closer to 3 years than 12. With China now coming apart at the seams, the last thing anyone is going to need is LTO. The only market remaining to the industry is soon going to be fuel production, and that at the lowest cost possible. LTO is certainly not going to fulfill that requirement!
Apneaman on Tue, 11th Aug 2015 7:00 pm
Euler’s Disk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ug2bKCG4gZY
antaris on Tue, 11th Aug 2015 7:25 pm
With 9700 producing wells in the Bakken, collecting from each every month will resemble Eulers disk. Then nothing.
Westexasfanclub on Tue, 11th Aug 2015 7:37 pm
Plantagenet will crawl out below the disc and scream: “Hey folks, I found a glut!”
apneaman on Tue, 11th Aug 2015 9:04 pm
Westexas, of course. Like the screaming disk, the cries of denial by useful idiots (planty, nony, etc) and the elite always gets loudest and fastest before the silence/end/crash. After the next one, disk will never be spun again.
“We will not have any more crashes in our time.”
– John Maynard Keynes in 1927
“I cannot help but raise a dissenting voice to statements that we are living in a fool’s paradise, and that prosperity in this country must necessarily diminish and recede in the near future.”
– E. H. H. Simmons, President, New York Stock Exchange, January 12, 1928
“There will be no interruption of our permanent prosperity.”
– Myron E. Forbes, President, Pierce Arrow Motor Car Co., January 12, 1928
“No Congress of the United States ever assembled, on surveying the state of the Union, has met with a more pleasing prospect than that which appears at the present time. In the domestic field there is tranquility and contentment…and the highest record of years of prosperity. In the foreign field there is peace, the goodwill which comes from mutual understanding.”
– Calvin Coolidge December 4, 1928
“There may be a recession in stock prices, but not anything in the nature of a crash.”
– Irving Fisher, leading U.S. economist , New York Times, Sept. 5, 1929
“Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau. I do not feel there will be soon if ever a 50 or 60 point break from present levels, such as (bears) have predicted. I expect to see the stock market a good deal higher within a few months.”
– Irving Fisher, Ph.D. in economics, Oct. 17, 1929“This crash is not going to have much effect on business.”
– Arthur Reynolds, Chairman of Continental Illinois Bank of Chicago, October 24, 1929
“There will be no repetition of the break of yesterday… I have no fear of another comparable decline.”
– Arthur W. Loasby (President of the Equitable Trust Company), quoted in NYT, Friday, October 25, 1929
“We feel that fundamentally Wall Street is sound, and that for people who can afford to pay for them outright, good stocks are cheap at these prices.”
– Goodbody and Company market-letter quoted in The New York Times, Friday, October 25, 1929
“This is the time to buy stocks. This is the time to recall the words of the late J. P. Morgan… that any man who is bearish on America will go broke. Within a few days there is likely to be a bear panic rather than a bull panic. Many of the low prices as a result of this hysterical selling are not likely to be reached again in many years.”
– R. W. McNeel, market analyst, as quoted in the New York Herald Tribune, October 30, 1929
“Buying of sound, seasoned issues now will not be regretted”
– E. A. Pearce market letter quoted in the New York Herald Tribune, October 30, 1929
“Some pretty intelligent people are now buying stocks… Unless we are to have a panic — which no one seriously believes, stocks have hit bottom.”
– R. W. McNeal, financial analyst in October 1929
“The decline is in paper values, not in tangible goods and services…America is now in the eighth year of prosperity as commercially defined. The former great periods of prosperity in America averaged eleven years. On this basis we now have three more years to go before the tailspin.”
– Stuart Chase (American economist and author), NY Herald Tribune, November 1, 1929
“Hysteria has now disappeared from Wall Street.”
– The Times of London, November 2, 1929
“The Wall Street crash doesn’t mean that there will be any general or serious business depression… For six years American business has been diverting a substantial part of its attention, its energies and its resources on the speculative game… Now that irrelevant, alien and hazardous adventure is over. Business has come home again, back to its job, providentially unscathed, sound in wind and limb, financially stronger than ever before.”
– Business Week, November 2, 1929
“…despite its severity, we believe that the slump in stock prices will prove an intermediate movement and not the precursor of a business depression such as would entail prolonged further liquidation…”
– Harvard Economic Society (HES), November 2, 1929
“… a serious depression seems improbable; [we expect] recovery of business next spring, with further improvement in the fall.”
– HES, November 10, 1929
“The end of the decline of the Stock Market will probably not be long, only a few more days at most.”
– Irving Fisher, Professor of Economics at Yale University, November 14, 1929
“In most of the cities and towns of this country, this Wall Street panic will have no effect.”
– Paul Block (President of the Block newspaper chain), editorial, November 15, 1929
“Financial storm definitely passed.”
– Bernard Baruch, cablegram to Winston Churchill, November 15, 1929
“I see nothing in the present situation that is either menacing or warrants pessimism… I have every confidence that there will be a revival of activity in the spring, and that during this coming year the country will make steady progress.”
– Andrew W. Mellon, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury December 31, 1929
“I am convinced that through these measures we have reestablished confidence.”
– Herbert Hoover, December 1929
“[1930 will be] a splendid employment year.”
– U.S. Dept. of Labor, New Year’s Forecast, December 1929
“For the immediate future, at least, the outlook (stocks) is bright.”
– Irving Fisher, Ph.D. in Economics, in early 1930
“…there are indications that the severest phase of the recession is over…”
– Harvard Economic Society (HES) Jan 18, 1930
“There is nothing in the situation to be disturbed about.”
– Secretary of the Treasury Andrew Mellon, Feb 1930
“The spring of 1930 marks the end of a period of grave concern…American business is steadily coming back to a normal level of prosperity.”
– Julius Barnes, head of Hoover’s National Business Survey Conference, Mar 16, 1930
“… the outlook continues favorable…”
– HES Mar 29, 1930
“… the outlook is favorable…”
– HES Apr 19, 1930
“While the crash only took place six months ago, I am convinced we have now passed through the worst — and with continued unity of effort we shall rapidly recover. There has been no significant bank or industrial failure. That danger, too, is safely behind us.”
– Herbert Hoover, President of the United States, May 1, 1930
“…by May or June the spring recovery forecast in our letters of last December and November should clearly be apparent…”
– HES May 17, 1930
“Gentleman, you have come sixty days too late. The depression is over.”
– Herbert Hoover, responding to a delegation requesting a public works program to help speed the recovery, June 1930
“… irregular and conflicting movements of business should soon give way to a sustained recovery…”
– HES June 28, 1930
“… the present depression has about spent its force…”
– HES, Aug 30, 1930
“We are now near the end of the declining phase of the depression.”
– HES Nov 15, 1930
“Stabilization at [present] levels is clearly possible.”
– HES Oct 31, 1931
“All safe deposit boxes in banks or financial institutions have been sealed… and may only be opened in the presence of an agent of the I.R.S.”
– President F.D. Roosevelt, 1933
http://www.theburningplatform.com/2014/10/16/permanently-high-plateau/
WTF on Wed, 12th Aug 2015 1:37 am
Interesting data. Good article.
Shouldn’t Nony be chirping up about now regarding some cornucopian bullshit. I see he’s been recently posting his opinions on Art Bermans blog. Interesting to see how all the other people posting comments on Art Bermans blog are asking questions and engaging in discussion but Nony just posts his stupid opinions with no data to back it up. What a dipshit.
rockman on Wed, 12th Aug 2015 5:36 am
“…but Nony just posts his stupid opinions with no data to back it up. What a dipshit.” I wouldn’t call his opinions stupid…just typically unsupported by links to actual data. I seldom view anyone’s opinions here as stupid. They’re just opinions which normally just support their position. Facts deserve analysis…not opinions IMHO.
rockman on Wed, 12th Aug 2015 5:43 am
BTW I hope by now everyone sees the correctness of the 6 +/- month lag time prediction between drilling a well and when it begins producing. For those in the drilling/production business it was an easy call. That lag time effect has existed for many decades even for the conventional plays.
In addition it’s good to remember that those wells drilled several years ago are now at a relatively low decline rate but those drilled in the last year or two are declining rapidly. And that will only add to the total picture in addition to the decrease in the number of new wells drilled.
Westexasfanclub on Wed, 12th Aug 2015 1:46 pm
So in the next twelve months the US and Canada will loose several hundreds of thousand of barrels, maybe millions. Iran will recover an produce about half a million barrels more, maybe up to seven hundred thousand. Irak might or might not produce more, it all depends on the internal conditions. Saudi Arabia might or might not keep the reserve spigot wide open, while the rest of the world will continue its slow but steady decline. How will this all play out? Will production become flat for several years? Will definite decline kick in next year? Or will production in 2016 creep up a tiny bit and keep the delusion of growing crude production alive for one more year? Or will China implode and take the world with it? Will it be blamed for the then certainly declining crude production? Will the “recovery” that might start somewhen afterwards create the illusion of growth even though the anterior pikes and peaks will never be reached again? What is going to happen? What?
Boat on Wed, 12th Aug 2015 5:07 pm
Westexasfanclub,
I see no delusion in the growth of oil use. Growth is still with us.
So is there enough oil? The more expensive forms of oil production have been shutting down for awhile now. We know there is oil there, just to expensive to justify drilling at the current low price. For the sake of argument I will suggest each well will be drilled based on cost and profit potential.
So yes, not an illusion of growth but continued growth.
apneaman on Wed, 12th Aug 2015 5:32 pm
Boat, wasn’t growth of oil use supposed to facilitate and result in real wealth? Like infrastructure – roads, railways, hospitals, schools, etc, including the maintenance? Home buying? Savings? Education? It used to result in that, so how come oil is at it’s highs, yet we can’t even keep up maintenance, let alone build new stuff? 40 -50 years ago we use to send smart kids to college on the cheap and get a return. Why is that now they essentially need to take out a mortgage to do the same thing? How could we afford to do that then, but not now? Same thing with home ownership, retirement and emergency savings. What is exactly the point of this growth now other that to guarantee our destruction and bigger profits for a happy few?
Westexasfanclub on Wed, 12th Aug 2015 7:04 pm
Yes, apneaman. I think we can’t escape the catch 22 of an interest based monetary system and high energy prices. As money is nothing else as symbolically stored future work and hence energy, we are getting less work and energy out of each currency unit. Times are coming to an end where we could spend a certain energy surplus in mass tourism for example. Now the interest payments of the debts are eating that surplus up. Debts, that societies made as there was much more energy in each currency unit and therefore a real expectance to repay the debt and create growth at the same time. Now that energy is stuck more and more in the banking system without the surplus to create real growth. The result in a pretty near future is that mass turism will be gone while there’s still wealth accumulation where the reflux of debt continues. So still record breaking prices for Picassos and luxury hookers, but no health care for the poor. Even if you would start a succsessful revolution, you could only revert the flow of money, while the energy will be gone forever.
Boat on Wed, 12th Aug 2015 7:51 pm
apenaman,
I would say that we are much more efficient with our use of oil than at any time in history. How many citizens of the world have been lifted out of poverty and live much longer? You blame society instead of cheer the advances. Population due to lack of education and developed societies is the problem. Educated populations are losing populations. Growth is through immigration to those countries. You know these things, you prefer to tire out disinformation.
apneaman on Wed, 12th Aug 2015 8:41 pm
Boat almost half the world lives on $2.50 a day and 1.3 billion of them live on a buck and a quarter. I have given you the links before, but obviously you prefer to cling to your little security blanket talking points you have no evidence for. Look at all the links I provided yesterday in this thread.
http://peakoil.com/enviroment/the-earths-battery-is-running-low
Most of it is peer reviewed studies showing the ongoing price of what we are doing or real time reports of ever increasing disaster we created with our efficient use of oil. What is your answer to that? Go through the links. I dare ya.
Nony on Wed, 12th Aug 2015 8:50 pm
Seems to be turning, with a lag. Those who predicted immediate or more dramatic drops (e.g. Berman) were wrong. Also those who did not consider the lag (and just looking at 2008-2009 with the Bakken would be enough to show lags occur).
One interesting thing to me is that rigs picked up again at $60+. Market is trying to figure out what equilibrium is. Maybe not 60+.
antaris on Wed, 12th Aug 2015 9:21 pm
Sure at $60 a couple more rigs. In 2006 at $60 there were almost twice as many rigs drilling more conventional oil.
Boat on Wed, 12th Aug 2015 9:41 pm
apneaman,
From the beginning humans have had to compete with nature, animals, other humans. This has sometimes been called the law of the jungle. Nothing new.
apneaman on Wed, 12th Aug 2015 9:58 pm
If you would have even just scanned a couple of the links you would have quickly picked up on the pattern of phrases like “faster than at any other time” or “unprecedented rate” or “before humans existed”. But you did not look at the evidence because you already have your mind made up and no amount of evidence will change it because you can’t/won’t allow that. Safe and warm in your unchallenged cocoon. A true 99%er, comfortable with being comfortable. It’s how most apes go through life.
“The unexamined life is not worth living”
Socrates
Boat on Wed, 12th Aug 2015 10:10 pm
I have on a few occasions shown you the great famines, the great wars, the massive loss of life from disease, 190 year droughts in California. I decided you are pretty good at googling so why don’t you.
I know both sides of the story and spent many years reading. I took debate in high school and learned to chase down any detail to argue both sides successfully. A class I would recommend to anyone. I am not a fear monger, I don’t see an immediate crash or a short term crash. I don’t see anything over the next 20 years that end it all. But I continue to look watch and read. I never say never. We have a better chance to crash from Kim Jong-un than problems from oil.
Boat on Wed, 12th Aug 2015 10:17 pm
I do believe in climate change. That may be the huckelberry that takes us out or just slow us down a bit. Doesn’t matter because as I have suggested many times, unless there is a profit in it positive change won’t happen.
The good news is, whenever oil spikes there is a big push towards renewables which in the end will save us or not on a big scale.
So to me that brings us down to the argument of timing. I just think we have time to change and it’s not the time for doom or push the panic button.
Westexasfanclub on Thu, 13th Aug 2015 4:53 am
Hope you are right, Boat. 20 years is a nice timeframe to get many things done.
I just can’t see that there’s so much time left. But I really do hope you’re right.
Nony on Thu, 13th Aug 2015 3:57 pm
Bakken can hang out at ~1.2 MM bpd through 2015 because of completing DUC inventory. See discussion on JUL webinar by NDIC.
I’m still thinking June will be a good month for them because price was high. Rock says the lag is 6 months, but it’s really not that long for completions from inventory and price was up for its second month in June.
July and definitely August should head down a bit because of the price environment. Get that through the fall but then a jump around DEC-JAN because a lot of wells reach their time limits for completing them.