Peak Oil is You
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Page added on October 29, 2017
US oil floated on cheap money
How much has the US oil industry been inflated, crushed and generally distorted by the Federal Reserve’s monetary force-feeding over the past nine years? According to my probing along the stages of production and trading, the answer is “a lot”. Yes, there have been dramatic developments in hydrocarbon production technology, but those looked even better through the distorted lens of quantitative easing. Oil and gas pricing have now stabilised, in the sense of finding a finance-friendly range somewhere north of $50 per barrel. There have been lay-offs and bankruptcies, but fewer than in the oil bust of the 1980s. Manhattan and Oklahoma City were treated relatively well by quantitative easing. In many ways it is easier for cheap money to find its way into the energy business than into the rest of the US economy, thanks to the breadth, depth and long-dated terms offered by the futures markets. As Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research, the analytics company in Chicago, points out: “There are active oil futures contracts all the way out to December of 2025, while, say, copper futures are only liquid out for a couple of years. So a private equity or hedge fund investor figured that if he got [an energy investment] wrong, he could easily hedge out his exposure.” Also, the operating people in the US oil and gas business have been very knowledgeable about public equity and debt markets for a long time. After 2008, when the banking system was reluctant to take risk, they knew how to turn around and sell a story such as “shale” to public investors. Since interest rates were artificially low, investors were willing to discount the projected revenues from imaginatively estimated oil and gas reserves at unrealistic levels.
Even after prices peaked in 2011, exploration and production operators could raise the money to fund aggressive capital spending. A significant part of the excess production was put into storage, where it was cheaply financed by naive city people who did not get the joke. Crude oil storage capacity at Cushing, Oklahoma, the centre of West Texas Intermediate oil deliveries, increased from 45m barrels in 2011 to 76m today. “This wasn’t some sort of smart play,” says one commodities investor. “It was a giant mistake.” Sign up to the Energy Source email, weekly Review the week’s must-read energy news, comment and analysis. weekly Just how big a mistake was not immediately evident, since official statistics did not capture how much oil was being crammed under the mattress. Todd Dauphinais, a principal at Clavis Capital, a Dallas private equity firm, led a 2016 buyout of Alliance Tank Service, an oil storage-tank manufacturer. The Alliance Tank deal was not premised on the direction of oil prices, but on the industry’s need to replace old facilities. Good thing, too. “Even as prices crashed, people still had to pump it out of the ground. It got stuffed in every available storage vessel, such as rail cars or oil barges, which really don’t make a lot of sense,” Mr Dauphinais recalls. “A lot of that would not have been reported at the time, and we figured that was all over and above what the [official numbers] said. “When we bought Alliance, Cushing was reported to be at 87 per cent of capacity, but since the 13 per cent was really operating margin, it was really completely full.”
In a normal world, some of the oil producers who signed long-term drilling contracts in the good years would have gone bankrupt from 2011 on, but they kept getting refinanced. As Tom Ward, a longtime exploration and production person from Oklahoma City, says: “Quantitative easing really was driving the whole energy market after 2008. The producers had three- to five-year contracts for rigs left from 2014 and before, and they had to pay whether they drilled or not.” So they continued to drill until this past year Recommended US oil majors lose money on home oil and gas production Bullish oil bets favour Brent over US WTI contract US shale investors tire of ‘growth at any cost’ model Not all the wells were completed, as in fracked, cased and connected to the gathering systems. That means that oil and gas were not only stored in above-ground tanks, but in drilled but uncompleted wells that are only gradually being finished and hooked up to the markets. Over the past year, equity and bond investors have forced onshore E&P companies to be more disciplined about their capital spending. That does not mean spending only their internally generated cash flow, of course. That would be like asking a prima ballerina to live within her salary. But the onshore industry is in much better shape than it was.
The US offshore industry in the Gulf of Mexico, on the other hand, has not really recovered. William New, president of New Industries in Morgan City, Louisiana, which makes pressure vessels, piping and the like for offshore projects, is still waiting for the good times to roll again. “The problem is even when [the customers] go bankrupt, the equipment doesn’t go away. In the 1980s it took 10 years to come back, and we are only in the third year,” he says. So there will be fewer offshore US mega-wells to upset the balance. With inventories having fallen even more sharply than the reported numbers, the oil and gas industry is not badly prepared for rising interest rates.
113 Comments on "US oil floated on cheap money"
Boat on Sun, 29th Oct 2017 4:06 pm
High winds bring milestone for Iowa utility’s wind power
MidAmerican spokeswoman Tina Hoffman says the utility’s experts noted the wind was strong enough to produce the energy needed to power 670,000 electric customers in the state.
MidAmerican’s goal is to eventually produce 100 percent of its power with renewable resources. The company is upgrading its old wind turbines and building new ones to help reach that goal.
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/money/business/2017/10/28/high-winds-bring-milestone-iowa-utilitys-wind-power/809951001/
sunweb on Sun, 29th Oct 2017 5:24 pm
maybe just maybe the household needs intermittently. Not their farm needs or mining, manufacturing, fabricating or transportation needs.
Outcast_Searcher on Sun, 29th Oct 2017 7:17 pm
Sunweb, or maybe just maybe batteries exist, are getting cheaper, and improving (and the software for running battery systems for backup power) all the time. So Solar and Wind “intermittency” aren’t really the problems the denier crowd tries to claim they will always be.
Davy on Sun, 29th Oct 2017 8:14 pm
Maybe, yet, as is the case in so many human conditions behavior is the problem and that is the catch. People are not being given the truth. People can’t handle the truth. Science and academia are lying to themselves not with the science but the fantasy solutions. It is not so much there are not solutions but that the solutions poorly scale, they have affordability issues, or the technology is not proven. People do not really understand how dangerous modern life is in terms of lack of sustainability and resilience. People are influenced by efficiency and performance which knocks on to a positiveness of motivation and morale. Alternatives are seen as a letdowns that won’t sell. We are told these new technologies will be affordable and seamlessly adapt to our status quo living without proof.
The truth is when we take this alternative way of living beyond a certain point significant and disruptive changes will likely occur. Many people do not realize how hard these changes will be and how deep the sacrifices will have to be taken. I think the real issue is in regards to behavioral management. Storage are likely not going to be good enough to do all that is asked of them without corresponding behavioral changes. Talking about cheaper, improving, and blaming deniers is what salesmen do. Wise men that have seen failure and tragedy think differently.
We really should be telling ourselves there are dangerous risks ahead that demand drastic action. In fact we should tell ourselves draconian action but of course most people can’t handle that without first being subjected to a crisis. Out of the frying pan into the fire is not sound policy but that is how we are acting this out. Behavior is the Holy Grail of a transition of sorts and the one least talked about. I say of sorts because it is yet to be seen if we can reinvent modernism. We are so far from a true test with what has been done to date. What has been done has been done in the safety and security of a status quo fossil fuel world which is hardly a real test. Behaviors needed are sobriety, vigilance, and acceptance of less affluence and very likely pain and suffering. The other issues is time and scale. We may not have a crisis or a process of events for a while yet. The scale may be a slow phase change and this is likely not going to be enough to influence behavior. What we need is probably too much for a modern population dumbed down and weakened by affluence to handle. What is worse we really are not even trying unless it feels good. You know a brand new solar system or EV feels so good.
MASTERMIND on Sun, 29th Oct 2017 10:12 pm
great Points Davy thanks for sharing. The only thing I would question is the claim that we have awhile to go. I believe we have a year at the least and three years at the most before big time changes are coming. And people are not going to like downsizing..
fmr-paultard on Sun, 29th Oct 2017 10:20 pm
as part of energy solution we should also bumpski SENTAPBs. supremacist extremist tard nazi bumpskied preachers threatens our democracy which is not unlike islam in that it encorporates politics and killing.
makati1 on Sun, 29th Oct 2017 10:24 pm
Delusions are common in the US…
“President Trump Confident in Missile Defense: In the Grip of Dangerous Illusion”
https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2017/10/29/president-trump-confident-missile-defense-grip-dangerous-illusion.html
” The US currently deploys 36 interceptors – 32 at Fort Greely, Alaska, and four at Vandenberg Air Force Base, California. By the end of 2017, there will be 44 deployed GBIs. A majority of the interceptors use the CE-I variant of kill vehicle that has scored only two successes in four tests. At least ten interceptors are to be equipped with the CE-II Block I vehicle, which has had two successful intercept tests in three tries….
It is generally believed that it takes at least four-five interceptors to hit the target. It means President Trump is off base saying the hit probability is 97%. Prior to the ICBM test, the GMD system had successfully hit its target in only ten of 18 tests since 1999. A success rate is about 56%, not 97%. But even 56% is almost certainly an overstatement, given the less-than-realistic nature of the tests.”
Maybe Trumpet is math challenged or just plain stupid? Maybe Americans are not much smarter?
“While the Russian tactical nuclear arsenal is not as large as what Soviet Union once maintained, the country is believed to have at least 2,000 tactical nuclear weapons deployed, but it could have as many as 5,000 such warheads when non-deployed weapons are taken into account.”
http://nationalinterest.org/feature/5-russian-nuclear-weapons-war-the-west-should-fear-12159
A 50% hit ratio would still allow between 1,000 and 2,500 nukes to land on US cities. The US is a paper tiger. Meow!
MASTERMIND on Sun, 29th Oct 2017 11:40 pm
makati1 your delusional fantasies about the us getting nuked are insane. Do you think any country wants to nuke the country that makes up 24% of the world economy? It would take down the whole system and be the end of globalization. The end of the world madkat will not be with a bang but a whimper…
makati1 on Mon, 30th Oct 2017 2:09 am
MM, Since when did economies determine wars? Answer: Never. The US economy is a joke. It is a lie from beginning to end. That 24% is the pig’s lipstick only. Not fact. Those nukes will come in the night…if they come.
The US is the world’s hugest DEBTOR also, with no one even close at 31.8% of world total debt. A debt that other countries are beginning to see will NEVER be paid. Even China has only an 18.8% debt load and has reserves and a growing economy. The US economy is contracting, not growing.
BTW: The capitalist/globalist financial system is also dying one country at a time. Global trade will continue but under conditions more like the 19th century than the 21st. Wait and see. Trade is thousands of years old. The collapse of a system is not going to stop it although it will cripple the 1st world when the trade balances out. It will mean the end of the US consuming/wasting 25% of the world’s resources. Soon, I hope.
Davy on Mon, 30th Oct 2017 5:25 am
When I came on this board 5 years ago there were many of us dooming the 1-3 time frame. I was more into the 3-5. We saw a strong collapse coming and with good reasons. Peak oil was still a powerful force of danger then. Peak oil dynamics changed and financial catastrophes did not materialize as we thought. Climate change is rolling out slowly. War is always an unknown civilization killer but somehow we have avoided destroying ourselves globally.
My current stand has moderated considerable. I do see the potential for limited optimism because of renewables. We may now see a decade of a normality of sorts on the energy front. I see renewables as extenders not a solution. Those preaching 100% renewable society are fake green fools. Climate is abruptly changing but the effects are yet to be a civilization killer. We are not going to leave fossil fuels which is another fake green hoax so get used to climate change. Climate change will lessen our affluence and make life more dangerous but it might be several decades until it kills our civilization.
Peak oil dynamics is rolling out slowly and deliberately. It may yet be a major force like we thought here in earlier years but more likely it will deliberately make us poorer each and every year. For peak oil to be managed though, renewables will have to really come on strong and demand drop considerable through conservation and efficiency. Maintaining the economy will be the key variable to this effort. We can’t keep growing oil demand consumption without hitting a wall. Financially hitting that wall will be very disruptive with the current unstable economic situation we are in with debt and central bank repression and easing. All markets are elevated beyond rational and realistic so a peak oil hit in the wrong combination of events could be more disruptive than is manageable.
Systematically it is a matter of if we can cooperate and avoid trade wars. Globalism that we all depend on must keep growing. We are a growth based civilization. Growth cannot be maintained eventually with renewables or not. Our fossil fuel complex must have growth to be maintained. Our planetary system is cyclical but humans are linear. The planet will return us to cyclical eventually. I promise you that. It is unclear if the perturbation that causes a break to a lower level of economic activity will be manageable or will it be a Minsky Moment. Failed states especially failed oil states is a real concern. Will this be localized or globally disruptive event? It will likely be both so localized failure and contagions will be a real challenge. Don’t forget pandemics. It only takes the 10% of the most important part of our vital human component of experience and command and control to leave us without direction.
So we have many collapse variable still in play and unfortunately they are converging and positively reinforcing. It must also be accepted collapse can happen any day. In fact the odds are in its favor but somehow we avoid it. This is something that cornucopian techno optimist are loath to admit and what is worse they think is will be a manageable correction not a civilization killer. It is likely our society will limp along as a late term civilization in decline for some years yet beyond 3-5.
This will not be the case locally in many places where the extremes of this process are occurring. Puerto Rico to Bangladesh will experience climate tragedies. Venezuela is experiencing financial collapse. Civil wars are ravaging nations. Droughts, floods, excessive heat, and overpopulation will continue to ruin various locals and regions. That process will only worsen because consumption is growing along with population at the same time climate destabilizes. Get used to more TV commercials of kids starving. We will likely have hunger and famine popping in many more places. We keep pushing our food and water system well beyond safe. We have ecological decline and failure that is part of an overall extinction event that slowly builds.
Nothing is positive longer term. Our civilization is dying along with the planet and we are to blame. The only positive in my mind is we may have a decade or more of normality then another decade of more of manageable crisis, maybe. The biggest positive is in the here and now right here right now. You can be happy within yourself. We are all going to die. The key is to live to die another day.
Davy on Mon, 30th Oct 2017 5:30 am
MM, ask mad kat how many men are under arms In Korea to get understand what the guys knows about anything. He thinks he is smart because he can google binary negatives or positive per his personal emotional agenda. If he was smart he would be able to process the good and bad. He is just suffering the decline that happens with dementia. Old people get stuck in ruts and become childlike with good and bad.
Davy on Mon, 30th Oct 2017 6:09 am
Anyone who thinks the global economy is fine is foolish. What happens in China does not stay in China.
“Daggers Are Falling From The Sky” – China Stocks, Bonds Tumble After National Congress Ends”
http://tinyurl.com/yd7w4uru
“CapEco’s ominous conclusion: Looking ahead, we think growth will continue to slow over the coming quarters. The current props to growth appear shaky. With investment contracting in real terms, industrial output will probably soften over the months ahead. Property sales also look set to weaken further as the government’s purchase curbs continue to expand. This will weigh on construction before long. More generally, with tighter monetary conditions weighing on credit growth, activity looks set to weaken further. That the past 18 months of coordinated global growth will end in China, is quite symmetric: back in January 2016, as global markets were tumbling, aborting the Fed’s plans to hike rates 4 times in 2016 and resulting in sharp economic slowdowns around the globe, it was the (still mysterious) Shanghai Accord that “saved” the world, and unleashed a burst of unprecedented, and coordinated, growth… which only cost China some $8 trillion in debt. It will only make sense that another major Chinese event will mark the top of this economic mini cycle, and lead to the next global downturn, not to mention spike in market volatility.”
Davy on Mon, 30th Oct 2017 6:16 am
“Record surge in atmospheric CO2 seen in 2016”
http://tinyurl.com/yc6bb4r8
“Concentrations of CO2 in the Earth’s atmosphere surged to a record high in 2016, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Last year’s increase was 50% higher than the average of the past 10 years. Researchers say a combination of human activities and the El Niño weather phenomenon drove CO2 to a level not seen in 800,000 years. Scientists say this risks making global temperature targets largely unattainable. This year’s greenhouse gas bulletin produced by the WMO, is based on measurements taken in 51 countries. Research stations dotted around the globe measure concentrations of warming gases including carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide. The figures published by the WMO are what’s left in the atmosphere after significant amounts are absorbed by the Earth’s “sinks”, which include the oceans and the biosphere. Climate change: a guide 2016 saw average concentrations of CO2 hit 403.3 parts per million, up from 400ppm in 2015.”
wildbourgman on Mon, 30th Oct 2017 7:52 am
“When I came on this board 5 years ago there were many of us dooming the 1-3 time frame. I was more into the 3-5. We saw a strong collapse coming and with good reasons. Peak oil was still a powerful force of danger then. Peak oil dynamics changed and financial catastrophes did not materialize as we thought”
Davy, I agree and I was in the same boat multiple times. I think we can easily see potential problems using rational and logic, but what we have trouble predicting is how those problems play out when governments and irrational markets don’t allow the consequences to follow the path we envisioned.
Where would peak oil be without quantitative easing and bail outs? Where would the housing market be? What would unemployment and immigration be without a very robust welfare state in the west? You certainly can’t play checkers with cause and effect when you need to be playing 3d chess in order to get even close to seeing what will happen next.
Cloggie on Mon, 30th Oct 2017 9:10 am
Anyone who thinks the global economy is fine is foolish. What happens in China does not stay in China.
“Daggers Are Falling From The Sky” – China Stocks, Bonds Tumble After National Congress Ends”
Suspiciously Davy doesn’t mention how much these papers fell.
Take a seat, brace yourself, take a deep breath:
1.3%
You are dead now, eh?
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/30/chinese-shares-shanghai-shenzhen-composite-slide-after-party-congress.html
Davy on Mon, 30th Oct 2017 9:16 am
“Where would peak oil be without quantitative easing and bail outs?”
Exactly, the cornucopians including the fake green techno optimist fail to realize or admit that bubble economics allows malinvestment. How much of the shale revolution was malinvestment, time will tell. How much of the renewable revolution is malinvestment? How much of the claimed renewable energy transition with the end of fossil fuel is just hype? The definition of malinvestment is the misrepresentation of real value goods, services, or development produced in an environment of normal price discovery with normalized rates with corresponding healthy liquidity. We have had so much debt, bad debt, rolled over debt, rehypothecation, and irrational markets that one can say the current environment where peak oil is considered dead is just plain nonsense. It may be less active a collapse variable but by no means dead considering the managed markets we are in. One must wonder what happens when the markets won’t manage anymore. Wild rates and deflationary decline in confidence could severely hamper fossil fuel production and the renewable buildout.
rockman on Mon, 30th Oct 2017 9:16 am
How sensitive is US drilling activity to oil prices compared to interest rates? In 2008 thru 2009 Treasury rates were fairly static at 6%. By late 2008 the US drilling rig count was 2,000. By mid 2009, while interest rates held the same as during 2008, the rig count fell from 2,000 to 900.
Again, the same mistake confusing OCCATIONAL correlation with causation. The Rockman has reviewed drilling economic evaluations for more the 4 decades and every one has been dominated by oil/NG prices…not interest rates. We had the same low interest rates when the rig count dropped from 1,700+ to less then 500. That correlates with oil prices falling from $90+/bbl to less then $40/bbl.
While earning low rates on earnings encourages investors to look for alternatives nothing fuels the greed factor like high oil/NG prices.
Cloggie on Mon, 30th Oct 2017 9:27 am
Rockman as usual turning circles around his doomer opponents.
Davy on Mon, 30th Oct 2017 9:29 am
“Take a seat, brace yourself, take a deep breath: 1.3%”
Clogged failed to connect the dots that despite $8 trillion increase in debt China’s “paper” (clog’s words) still has fallen 3%.
“Daggers Are Falling From The Sky” – China Stocks, Bonds Tumble After National Congress Ends”
http://tinyurl.com/yd7w4uru
“Shanghai Accord that “saved” the world, and unleashed a burst of unprecedented, and coordinated, growth… which only cost China some $8 trillion in debt.”
Davy on Mon, 30th Oct 2017 9:33 am
Tell me how all that mountain of oil debt that people have been whining about post price cratering will do if rates ever normalize again to 6%. Yea sure interest rates don’t matter.
rockman on Mon, 30th Oct 2017 9:51 am
”Tell me how all that mountain of oil debt…will do if rates ever normalize again to 6%”. Not sure I understand the question, Dave. Increasing rates won’t have much effect on the existing debt. In fact, nothing will except oil prices increasing significantly very soon and allowing it to be retired sooner.
wildbourgman on Mon, 30th Oct 2017 9:55 am
Rockman, your comment is why I said it’s like playing 3d chess versus checkers. Your right about oil & gas prices but would the prices have been high enough to attract investors without many other inputs such as low interest rates and other bailouts during this crisis?
Our investors keep skipping from one bubble to another, its variables such monetary policy and government action that forces investment into alternatives. Oil and Gas during the shale boom was just like the housing market or the dot-com bubble just like oil and gas in the 1970’s and 1980’s can be connected to fiscal and monetary policies that caused and killed inflation.
Cloggie on Mon, 30th Oct 2017 10:09 am
Clogged failed to connect the dots that despite $8 trillion increase in debt China’s “paper” (clog’s words) still has fallen 3%.
Reference?
That ZH link you provided does not contain a reference to 3%
Davy on Mon, 30th Oct 2017 11:09 am
Rock, when debt and lines of credit are renegotiate and rolled over rates may go up. Considering new debt that is needed to continue operations rate normalization will matter. It may also mean a bad economic situation if central banks loose control. You can’t tell me ultra low rates have not been beneficial to all that excessive oil industry debt and the ability of the indistry to invest in new projects. What if rates had never gone that low then shale producers would have had those cost as a further challenge to their rate of return. Low rates do matter to the oil industry like all industries.
Davy on Mon, 30th Oct 2017 11:15 am
Clogged your the one who added in the 3% into my original comment. You just told on yourself dumbass. Where in my original comment was the 3%? In any case my comment is legit to show that 8 trillion in debt matters in relation to 3% drop.
wildbourgman on Mon, 30th Oct 2017 11:18 am
Rockman, oil debt won’t be able to restructure if interest rates normalize (although what’s normal anymore?). Also many investors might not be as prone to risk if they can get safer return at a decent rates if interest rates return to 6%.
Personally I don’t see how any of this turns out well. It’s like we have a tiger by the tail. We can’t raise rates very much, but you can’t keep them artificially low for ever.
If I knew what the next bubble was and when it would pop I wouldn’t be sitting on this rig that’s for damn sure.
Cloggie on Mon, 30th Oct 2017 11:20 am
This is definitely YOUR post:
Clogged failed to connect the dots that despite $8 trillion increase in debt China’s “paper” (clog’s words) still has fallen 3%
If I were you I would economize in accusing others of “dementia”. It is you who hands-down makes the most of these “little mistakes”.
shortonoil on Mon, 30th Oct 2017 11:23 am
How much does it cost to replace a barrel of oil that has been extracted. When it is more than the price of the oil you are going out of the oil business.
MASTERMIND on Mon, 30th Oct 2017 11:37 am
Davy, the collapse will come with the oil shortages that are headed our way..Now the question is how long after the oil shortages will it take? That is a great question that is impossible to answer.. I think maybe a year maybe 5-7 years. But it will be the trigger..The stock market knows damn well what peak oil is and they have been reassured that us shale will solve all problems, and to a lesser extent EV’s and tesla’s..When they find out they have been duped they are not going to be buying they are going to be selling..
Cloggie on Mon, 30th Oct 2017 11:58 am
Davy, the collapse will come with the oil shortages that are headed our way..Now the question is how long after the oil shortages will it take? That is a great question that is impossible to answer.. I think maybe a year maybe 5-7 years.
Hate to be the doomer party pooper, but in 5-7 years time, if there would be real oil shortages (there won’t be) you can go to Europe (bring your wallet with you) and have the choice between:
– turn-wind park installed in a US state near you
– buy as many gas from the UK as you want.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2593032/Coal-fuel-UK-centuries-Vast-deposits-totalling-23trillion-tonnes-North-Sea.html
https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2015/04/07/fracking-is-for-amateurs/
There are trillions of tons of coal below the North Sea that can be gasified.
Davy on Mon, 30th Oct 2017 12:16 pm
Dumbass, go back to the original comment I did. Where is the 3%? You added that to the conversation or did you forget.
MASTERMIND on Mon, 30th Oct 2017 12:23 pm
Cloggie you are a dumbshit who believes fake news daily mail. Which is constantly being sued and losing for running fake news stories…now please go back to 4-chan with the rest of the scum of society…
onlooker on Mon, 30th Oct 2017 12:25 pm
It seems some smart people here still do not get it. IT will not be oil shortages per say, that will doom our Economies. It will be unaffordable oil, lack of Net Energy and a crumbling Oil Industry. As our optimistic friends keep pointing out, all oil is the same. They will soon find out that is not the case. Long after the Oil age is over, lots of Oil will still exist
Cloggie on Mon, 30th Oct 2017 12:28 pm
The first reference to “3%” in this thread is in
“Davy on Mon, 30th Oct 2017 9:29 am”,
mr euro trash. You are really dumb as a door knob.
Cloggie on Mon, 30th Oct 2017 12:40 pm
“Cloggie you are a dumbshit who believes fake news daily mail. Which is constantly being sued and losing for running fake news stories…now please go back to 4-chan with the rest of the scum of society…”
You seriously think that the DM, tabloid or not, is making this news up out of thir air? Why not invest 1 minute of your “precious time” and verify?
https://www.worldcoal.com/coal/31032014/coal_discovered_in_north_sea_674/
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/10518072/UKs-next-offshore-energy-fortune-lies-in-coal.html
So “MASTERMIND” (ROFL), you can abandon your totally false depletion tall tales, every thinking individual abandoned in 2013. Of course you won’t, because you need this sensationalism to entertain your drinking buddies.
Davy on Mon, 30th Oct 2017 12:55 pm
Clog, words with your links please. You need to quit being an intellectually lazy bum.
Davy on Mon, 30th Oct 2017 12:57 pm
Clog, go back to the my original comment, where is the 3% stupid?
MASTERMIND on Mon, 30th Oct 2017 1:07 pm
Sorry Clog you are like I said before as dumb as they come.. Your sources are not factual…lol here is a actual peer reviewed scientific paper published in the journal of Fuel. That has coal peaking in the next few years. Along with everything else for that matter.You are just as dumbs as madkat you just search google for whatever you want to believe and find whatever sight conforms to your bias. Never a science paper or study.
Projection of World Fossil Fuels by Country (Mohr, 2015)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016236114010254
MASTERMIND on Mon, 30th Oct 2017 1:14 pm
German Government (leaked) Peak Oil study concludes: oil is used directly or indirectly in the production of 90% of all manufactured products, so a shortage of oil would collapse the world economy & world governments
https://www.permaculture.org.au/files/Peak%20Oil_Study%20EN.pdf
Study: Financial System Supply-Chain Cross-Contagion: in Global Systemic Collapse (Korowicz, 2012)
http://www.feasta.org/2012/06/17/trade-off-financial-system-supply-chain-cross-contagion-a-study-in-global-systemic-collapse/
Both those two studies confirm that oil shortages will collapse the global economy…
Oil Shortages > Economic Collapse > Anarchy
Unfortunately, however much we deplore something, it does not stop it from being true. -Richard Dawkins
Cloggie on Mon, 30th Oct 2017 1:22 pm
“MASTERMIND”, try to grasp the difference between mineable coal from your peer reviewed study and the 23 trillion ton of non-mineable coal below the UK and North Sea that can be harvested using proven coal gasification techniques.
It is comparable to conventional oil and shale oil.
The conclusion is that there is more than enough fossil fuel to bridge a few decades between now and the 100% renewable energy bade of the future, 2050 in Europe and a few decades later elsewhere. I don’t even think we will need this CSG at all.
Cloggie on Mon, 30th Oct 2017 1:27 pm
“German Government (leaked) Peak Oil study concludes: oil is used directly or indirectly in the production of 90% of all manufactured products, so a shortage of oil would collapse the world economy & world governments”
MM, you are really an old school peak-oil fossil out of the ASPO mold. That German Army study dates from 2012, before the fracking boom started. The study belongs in the trashbin. Questions?
https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2012/01/26/german-army/
MASTERMIND on Mon, 30th Oct 2017 1:28 pm
The conclusion is that there is more than enough fossil fuel to bridge a few decades between now and the 100% renewable energy bade of the future, 2050 in Europe and a few decades later elsewhere. I don’t even think we will need this CSG at all.
“What can be asserted without evidence can be dismissed without evidence”
-Christopher Hitchens
MASTERMIND on Mon, 30th Oct 2017 1:29 pm
UC Davis Study: It Will Take 131 Years to Replace Oil with Alternatives (Malyshkina, 2010)
http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/es100730q
University of Chicago Study: predicts world economy unlikely to stop relying on fossil fuels (Covert, 2016)
https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.30.1.117
MASTERMIND on Mon, 30th Oct 2017 1:32 pm
Existing oil reserves are scheduled to begin a catastrophic crash within 1 to 3 years. When it hits the economic and social damage will be catastrophic. The end of Western Civilization, from China to Europe, to the US, will not occur when oil runs out. The economic and social chaos will occur when supplies are merely reduced sufficiently.
Sources: Click on my username! Eat a Dick Clog you racist scum bag. I am going to breed your daughter/wife/girlfriend/sister post oil.
Davy on Mon, 30th Oct 2017 1:38 pm
Clog, back to hyping gasification of coal. What a tired old argument. Clogged, give us some gasification numbers on how all that coal under the North Sea is going to scale and be affordable. I know you expect us to believe your in-depth knowledge because you are an energy engineer. Where did you get your degree from?
Cloggie on Mon, 30th Oct 2017 1:51 pm
MM, you are so right, as far as America is concerned. I do not think that a halfway third world country like yours has the innovative strength to innovate itself away from fossil fuel into a renewable energy base.
“Eat a Dick Clog you racist scum bag”
Yes I noticed that some of you folks do not believe in yourselves, probably for a good reason.
Davy on Mon, 30th Oct 2017 1:57 pm
MM, has the dumb Dutch dude pegged. MM, you know clogged is a closet Nazi?
Cloggie on Mon, 30th Oct 2017 2:06 pm
Define “closet Nazi”.
MASTERMIND on Mon, 30th Oct 2017 2:10 pm
Davy they don’t have the coal he claims. It just nonsense from right wing fake media. the telegraph and dailymail are no different then Breitbart and Fox news of America. Next he will be quoting murdocks “The Sun” as his trusty worthy source. He is no different then Madkat. See this is why western cultures don’t have to censor information. They do the opposite they flood you with tons and tons of fake misinformation. That stupid and cowardly people hint hint (right wingers). Can find whatever they WANT TO BELIEVE….
MASTERMIND on Mon, 30th Oct 2017 2:13 pm
Cloggie 100% renewables is a total fantasy. And Jackobson’s 100% renewable paper that Obama, Leo and Bernie often sited. Was just debunked this year by 29 scholars at MIT…Re